949-228-7621 anilselarka@gmail.com

CONFUSED MIND CLEAR ANSWERS (2010-10)


Ref: 2010-10 of 1st October, 2010

2010 – Protocol to Observe before you post

I am starting today “2010, October series”. Post your October comments here using comment box at the bottom.

The Sept 2010 series will be archived in PDF and HTML format (to make it searchable) and is made available from Download center (It will take 7 days because old queries posted there will be replied in next few days). DO NOT POST ANY QUERIES IN Sept 2010 – It will not be answered. Old entries not yet replied will be replied there within 2 days.

I am making few changes. My reply will not be detailed as before. It will not be more than 10 lines at the most. If there is any major issue of concern or interest is shown by the readers, I will promptly address it in the form a separate post or page, so that repetitive query are not posted or answered, and the readers can enjoy only single point of reference for that issue.

The readers may note another important protocol. Please post your comments in the following format:

HEADING – Write in Capital letters, name of the stock enquired about or title of major issue as per reader’s choice. Do not extend beyond one line.

MESSAGE BODY

  1. Write your query or specific question very clearly.
  2. Do not use compliments for my predictions or assessments. Yes, you can criticize.
  3. Write each issue in one Para.
  4. Do not use essay form. Write to the point, do not be apologetic for anything nor bother about what I would feel about your post, just speak out your mind clearly.
  5. Use your normal word processor, to write your comments first, think over it, have it spell checked with proper capitalization, and then only post it.
  6. Make a standard format or template using the present protocol, so that you do not forget anything like your name, city etc.

At the END OF MESSAGE, please mention without fail

  • your Name (you can use nickname, but mention real name in the bracket as I do)
  • City
  • Country and
  • Date of posting (although I know it, but when I consolidate at month end, the program does not use the posted date. It is better you write the date of posting and time (not so essential)

Formatting your posts in above manner will make entire post pleasant, eye catching, and highlight the stocks or subject in such a way that other readers can scroll through easily to find what they want even from your message.

Kalidas (Anil Selarka)
Hong Kong,  Sept 30, 2010

MASTER INDEX (Last month on Top)

336 Comments

  1. Birthday Wishes

    Dear Sir,

    Many Many happy returns of the day to you and your wife. may god bless you both with all the happiness, joy and prosperity. 

    Happy birthday to you both in advance.  

    Cheers
    Amit, Sydney, Australia
    17/10/2011

  2. Dear sir
     
    I wish you and your family ”Prosperous and Happy Diwali”
    Keep guiding us.
     
    Regards
    Renukswami
    Pointe Noire
    Congo

  3. Sub: Avon Corp
    Dear Sir,
    Avon Corp has come out with resonable good quarterly results with improved sales and profit.
    The stock fell to Rs.4.95 yesterday , and today it is up around 10% to 5.41. May be due to BSE had some problem in trading and it did not hit upper circuit.
     
    Is it a stock to accumulated at CMP to have some quick short term gain.
     
    I have 2400@ 8.87. Your view please…
    Thanks,
    -Santosh,Bangalore, India.

  4. Dear Sir
    the ICICI bank posted excellent results and running like rocket, at the same time RIL posted historical results, with such a great India story in place, which factors would you think can melt down india market.
     
    Regards
    $amir, 11/01/2010, Mumbai

    Kalidas says…Monday, November 01, 2010
    Global events in USA and also Interest rates movements in India.

  5. Kalidasji,
    Please start the November series.
    Regards,
    Atul
    Singapore
    01-Nov-10
    Kalidas says…Monday, November 01, 2010
    STARTED TODAY. SORRY FOR OMISSION

  6. Dear Kalidasji,
    I wanted to meet you before you push off to US, but, looks like it would not be possible because of my travelling and not being in Mumbai.
    Before I left US last year, I was seeing all ads like “Cash for Gold”, now in India by Mannapuram, Muthot finance. Actor Akshay kumar is also featuring in one of the Ad.
     
    It is said in the market that both Mannapuram/Muthot are front companies for JPM.
    One more revelation I would like to share which is from Harvey blog and that is :-
    IMF initially in 1947 announced that the gold they hold and “received” from member nations were stored at the following central banks:
    1. Bank of France
    2. Federal Bank of New York
    3. Bank of England..and strangely:
    4. Bank of India.
    The blog also says this:- “It seems very strange that the only countries buying gold from the iMF are from the India area.”
    What I can infer is that all 400 tons was belonging to India (albeit in swap arrangement) and was also in Indian custody RBI Mumbai and my native place Nagpur has storage vaults.

    I add here, country names i.e. Mautitious, Bangaladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka etc. What I can say with confidence about mauritious is that it is nothing but finantial gateway to India for dirty/clean money.
    May be all neighboring countries may have swap arrangements with India as India is investing heavily in these countries and financially helping these countries.
    So the whole 400 tons pledged in 1947 has come back to India. As you have said before this could be just a book entry and no physical movement of Gold. It is exactly the same thing could have happened.
    The comment on the blog also reports that :- a rug being pulled under diamond industry of Gujurat by couple of JPM run banks in the country causing these diamond traders to default on their borrowings.
    JPM could use these diamond businesses now on their balance sheet to swap gold for diamonds anywhere in the world and keep gold coming in.
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/surat/Jet-setting-diamond-barons-fortunes-nosedive/articleshow/6832969.cms
    This is bit out of topic and long but as equities are running away not much to do than just watch or see what Gold/Silver can do and also if JPM et all can be punished for any wrongdoing. It is also said that JPM=FED.

    Dongre, India, Nov 1/2010

    Kalidas says…Monday, November 01, 2010
    I agree with your last point – “It is also said that JPM=FED.”

    There are no JPM led banks in India. JPM is not known to finance the diamond merchants – so their defaults are not related to JPM. Diamond traders are financed more by Benelaux countries – Belgium, Netherland and some European banks. ABN Amro and Belgium Bank used to be major financiers or hosts to diamond merchants. Of late, their roles are much reduced, and substituted by banks in India like Bank of India, State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, UCO Bank, Indian Overseas Bank etc.

    Most diamond merchants are more “havala traders” than real diamond traders. They are the richest source of black money. They also tend to speculate in Forex markets because of easy money. Their business thrives on “trade credit”. If one fails, they also raise hands to Indian suppliers.

  7. Sir, What is your view on Coal India?

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    NOTE: Always append your name, city and country to your signature. Please follow protocol rigidly if you want reply.

    Good to own for long term, at least for next 3 years. It will become BSE/NSE index stock in future which will generate the demand from Index oriented funds.

  8. Sir, But  please answer me that are the current prices in realty indicating any bubble? Prices have increased 90 percent from the lows which were prior to one and half year.

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    NOTE: Always append your name, city and country to your signature. Please follow protocol rigidly if you want reply.

    Yes, it is in giant bubble. Once the collapse starts, Real Estate in India will not recover for another 7 to 12 years.

  9. Reg: Dolphin Offshore Enterprise

    Thanks for your reply.

    Yes. This is an Indian stock listed on NSE and BSE…

    Would it possible for you to study and let me know your views??

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    NOTE: Always append your name, city and country to your signature. Please follow protocol rigidly if you want reply.

    Interesting company with lot of expertize. Of late, the revenues were down but it looks like they set up new company where the business might have been diverted. However, it does not reduce its merits.

    The stock is weak at the moment. Take advantage and buy some now. More later. It is not a trading stock however, Unless you are willing to take position for at least 24 months, do not buy. At current prices, and holding period of 18 months, there is no reason why the stock can not make over 25% money safely.

  10. Dear Sir,
    What do you suggest for Ashok Leyland .
    CMP is Rs 76/- i have 100 shares bought at 76Rs/-

    Should i sell and buy satyam more .
    Regds
    Sameer
    Pune

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    Strong auto sales might prompt you to buy this stock. We recommended this stock two years back when it was just Rs 14 from where it has risen to Rs 76.

    It has small downside now due to strong market. However, the stock is too expensive by my standard. It is already trading at 20 times P/E/ With port and roads developing, the company is well positioned with Tata Motors and Mahindras to exploit commercial heavy vehicle sector.

    Nevertheless, this sector is too much dependent on finance. Remove finance, and the sales will plummet by 70%. With interest rates rising, and likely to hit almost 12% within 6 months from now, the affordability rates will go down. Nevertheless, it is good to own this stock only during correction.

    If you have short vision, you may buy into rally with downside to Rs 71 and upside – god knows.

  11. Dear Sir,
    please share your views on DCB & South indian Bank at CMP (70/28 respectively). What is your view regarding the future prospects of these banks. In the past i have entered DCB @ 35 and exited at 55.  Is this a good time to enter these stocks?
    regards
    Raghav
    Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    DCB has large NPA and its contingent liability is extraordinarily high – almost equal to its deposit base. I do not understand why the continget liability should have been so high. (such liability is due to letter of credit and guarantees on behalf of customers, which is okay in normal circumstances, but when the Loan/Advance book is so low on volume why CL should have been so high.

    Still, due to heavy invasion of FII in banking sector, the stock might go higher, with latest quarter being profitable. It is a small bank catering to gulf investors, I am told. The controlling shareholders are also from Middle East.

    If the company retains its latest profitability profile, then the stock could outperform rest of banking sectors. FII may not buy into this bank due to political sensitivity. The bank’s willingness to lend and then make the advance NPA suggest that the bank is being used as conduit for tainted and terrorist money.

    Buy it in correction but do not be so aggressive.

    South India Bank is better choice than DCB. It is at fair price and has take over appeal. Stay with it and trade only upto 60%. Hold rest for 3 years for long term appreciation.

  12. Dear Dongre and Sreeram,
    Add one more name to the list :-)
    Following Anil ji’s advice, I am already out of all stocks except my gold ETFs. Had aaplied for coal India IPO, and plan to sell the shares on day 1 when trading starts!
    Rajesh
    Mumbai, India

  13. Hello Mr. Anil,
    I want to buy Gold/Silver/Palladium Bars. Can you please suggest the entry point as I am little scared with the price run-up that these precious metals had in recent times. Are you expecting a short term correction in Gold/Silver/Palladium and can you please suggest an entry price for Gold, Silver as well as Palladium.
    Thanks,
    Anup Maheshwari, New Jersey, USA, 31 Oct 2010

    Kalidas says…Monday, November 01, 2010
    Try APMEX to buy. Their charges are usually 1.25% on gold to 3.5% on Silver and Palladium.

    You have to buy during correction which was there last week. Since then the gold/silver/palladium prices went up 2.8%/7%/8% respectively. Watch out the dollar strength. Whenever the dollar rises for 2 or 3 days in a row, the above metal prices correct a bit. Enter then. There is no set level, however, you may use 1335 for gold/ 23.35 for silver/610 for Palladium. This may not be possible now because the recent correction has already petered out.

    Open the free account with the APMEX in the meanwhile so that you can take advantage of price fall immediately.

  14. Guru,
    Which one should we watch, USD LIBOR overnight?
    -Venkat,Chennai,India.

    Kalidas says…Sunday, October 31, 2010

    1M LIBOR will be the first indicator. 3M Libor will be more stable indicator. Overnight LIBOR is generally meant for the traders. However, it may indicate the pressure that may be building. Still 1M and 3M will be more useful indicators for direction of Interest rates.

  15. Dolphin Offshore Enetrprises

    I am hodling this stock at an avergae cost of 315 …slowly averaging with the fall…currently trading around 250 (almost near the 52 week low).

    Do you think its worthwhile to hold onto the position or book the losses??

    Regards,
    Bhatia, Dubai

    KALIDAS SAYS…MONDAY, NOVEMBER 01, 2010
    Is it Indian stock? Moneycontrol returned negative result.

  16. Dear Kalidasji and also Sreeram,
    I am also exactly same boat as you Sreeram/UK. I think it is crazy on my part, but I found one more crazy person like me in Sreeram. I think both of us are taking a great risk and sold out on the idea of demise of dollar and impending hyperinflation and also the idea of Gold/Silver market rigging by JPM/HSBC and whatever GATA is saying for last 10 years. Your book is also the main contributor for this outrageous behavior in our portfolios.
    Wherefore, if I loose money, then credit goes to you AND if it is otherwise, money gets credit(ed) in my account, ;)~   Just kidding.
    Dongre, India, Oct 29/2010

    Kalidas says…Sunday, October 31, 2010
    Well said. Kalidas is the great buffer for portfolio.

  17. Dear Kalidasji,
    I have 3900 Satyam @ 104 (CMP 78.90). Should I buy more to bring down my cost or else?
    Regards,
    Ghanshyam
    Surat
    29th Oct 2010

    Kalidas says…Sunday, October 31, 2010
    Yes, you should add more because the price difference is substantial and the prospects are encouraging notwithstanding short term hiccup which is the last ramnants of the past. The worse is almost over.

  18. Respected Kalidasji,
    Abhishek Industries has declared its Q2 results http://www.moneycontrol.com/livefeed_pdf/Oct2010/Abhishek_Industries_Ltd_281010.pdf
    The above results are splendid in growth/profit(%) but stock is falling. The company has started executing further expansion by about Rs,1200 Cr. Textile industry stocks are on raise but this stock (Sales/M.cap is greater than 7) is not responding either its growth or peer price behavior. Kindly elucidate.
    Regards,
    V.S.Kumar, Jorhat

    Kalidas says…Monday, November 01, 2010
    The uncertain point in earnings is the extent of losses on FOREX Derivative options that are maturing well into 2013. The losses can not be ascertained by the Auditors because of the proprietory nature of those contracts which do not have ready market prices. The Auditors are therefore not providing for such losses.

    Nevertheless, the company is on right track. With cotton prices rising, the profit margin of the company needs to expand. The revenue gain due to price gain will be significant this year end. The cotton prices have doubled of late from all time low.

    We do not know why the company should have such thin margin of profit when it is a full manufacturing company. Small positions may continue to be maintained in this company. The past cautions may be reduced due to better performance.

  19. Financial Technologies and Ispat

    Dear Kalidasji,

    Your views on Financial Technologies CMP Rs. 980, it has fallen substantially from Rs 1200 levels in the past 1 month, since SEBI disallowed MCX to start trading in equities.Is this a huge impact, I believe they are already setting up exchanges in other countries, Mauritius,Singapore,etc.., your views on this , and what should be good levels to enter this script.

    ISPAT,
    Your views on this stock , its CMP Rs. 19.50 , earlier you had recommended to enter it at Rs. 16 or below, but it never made it there, is it a good time to enter , or what levels do you expect to buy into this script.

    Thanks

    Rahul Bondre
    Mumbai India
    29th Oct 2010

    Kalidas says…Monday, November 01, 2010

    Both are buys. Let the controversy relating to SEBI’s action to disallow the company to enter trading in equities. It will be minimum 12 months before the company gets permission to start trading on equities. I think that two exchanges are enough for India for the time being.

    Ispat may be bought at about 18 or about. Even present prices are okay to take small position. The stock is still not retaile investors’ favorite.

  20. Sir,
       I want to re enter in the mkt, can u suggest me what can I do? It is right time or not
    Thnks
    Amit gupta
    Rajasthan
    India

    Kalidas says…Monday, November 01, 2010
    There is no “muhirat” to enter the market. If there is outstanding opportunity, then only buy some shares, such as that of IOC, HPCL and MRPL.

    I am still on sale side though. I do expect major correction soon, so hold on for a while.

  21. CAIRN INDIA
    Dear Sir,
     
    Is it the right time to enter Cairn India @ 320 or wait for correction to enter on this counter? It posted good result for this quarter with good Sales and Profit with EPS @ 8.31.

    Your Views!
     
    Thanks,
    Siva, Chennai

    Kalidas says…Monday, November 01, 2010
    Yes. Buy some now. An investment of Rs 1 lakh at the current prices will make good money in short term of about 6 months.

  22. Kalidasji,

    In Tech Mahindra Q2 consolidated results they have included Satyam income for Q2 as loss.

    Should I continue holding satyam.

    Regards,
    Atul (Pune)

    Kalidas says…Monday, November 01, 2010
    Provide a link to any news item you are referring to. However, hold on to Satyam stocks for at least 12 months to make really good money.

  23. Hello Sir,
    I am out of most stock and holding on to few as suggested. Apart from that I have some recurring investments in in policies and mutual funds (SIP). In some of those I can switch between the funds. Currently I am invested in funds having maximum exposure to equities. Should I switch to 100% Debt based fund for now or something in between?
     
    Regards
    Akhilesh Singh
    NOIDA, INDIA
    29/10/2010

    Kalidas says…Monday, November 01, 2010
    Take out money out of mutual funds relating to equity. When I expect the market to fall steeply and ask readers to sell 95% of their investments, it implies that Mutual Funds too will suffer a lot.

    In normal course, the debt funds would have been better. However, I take the view that interest rates will rise in India which will hurt debt prices.

    Best course to invest in short term Short deposits. (91 days or more). There is no loss of capital even in melt down.

  24. Kalidas

    Below is the Fed’s plan B,C,D if QE2 does not work. All asset prices are increasing (thanks to the feds cheap money) despite your sell call. The fed will not stop at qe2. it will follow up with B,C,D and do whatever it takes to get the economy back on track. In such a scenario emerging market stocks are going to go through the roof as QE2 fails and they switch to plan b then c and D etc etc.

    Then what is the logic of ur sell call?

    Your comments on the BCD too

    princeofindia
    Abu dhabi

    Plan B would most likely be a change in communication – whereby, instead of trying to push down long-term interest rates, the Fed would try to push up expectations of future inflation. It could do this either by promising to keep interest rates close to zero for a long time – regardless of what happens to inflation – or by adopting a “price-level target”. “Clearly communicating an ex­pected path for prices would help guide the public’s understanding of the Fed’s intentions while we carry a large balance sheet and promise continued low interest rates for an extended period,” said Charles Evans, the president of the Chicago Fed, in a recent speech.
    Plan C would be a more extreme form of quantitative easing. Instead of targeting an amount of assets to buy, the Fed could target an interest rate – such as 2 per cent for the 10-year Treasury bond – by offering to buy as many bonds as needed to reach that rate. Mr Bernanke raised this option in a famous 2002 speech widely seen as the instruction manual for how a central bank should tackle deflation.
    But it is not as extreme or unpalatable as plan D: buying as many Treasury bonds as Congress needs to cut all taxes on payrolls to zero for a time.

  25. Anilji,
    Can you please opine your view on Birla Power Solutions.
    This stock is going down day by day.
    I hold 5000 @2.35,got 1000 bonus today.
    Is it advisable to accumalate or sell this with loss.
    Thanks,
    Awadhesh,Mumbia,India

  26. GOLD-SILVER Query
    Dear Anilji..
     
    Even though you recommended not to invest more thatn 30-35% of investment capital in GOLD, currently i am 50% invested of my total capital..
     
    As you have already TOLD about the possible severe correction in the market adn GOLD is swinging around 1335$/oz and based on your 35:85 method.. is it good idea sell some of my GOLD-Silver and bring my 50% to 30% and buy back when you again give us the go ahead?
     
    Pardon me if you think it is a repeated question.. i am selling on every rise in market and bringing it to 90% SOLD in my equity but in case of GOLD-SILVER i am buying on every 2-3% fall..
     
    Please advice me on this GOLD-SILVER query at ur convenience..
     
    Regards,
    Sreeram london UK
    1600hrs 28th Oct 2010

    Kalidas says…Monday, November 01, 2010
    Hold on to both Gold and Silver. They are developing slow momentum on upside. I expect Gold prices to hit minimum $ 1600 by Dec 10 and Silver prices to reach at least $ 28.75 to 31.10 level. Enjoy the ride. Even if you want to sell, book profit on 70% of your inventory.

  27. Dear Sir,
    Thanks for your call on gold and palladium. I really made profit on those. Now I have a question and that is do you think bubble is building up in real estate pricing. For instance at Gundecha Gardens at Lalbaug, I had enquired two months back price was 2.25 cr for 2 bhk which was raised to 2.45 after the flat got sold for 2.25 and once the flat got sold for 2.50 cr in last two weeks, they raised the prices to 2.75cr. Sir are’nt these builders playing with the sentiments of the buyers. Only in past two months they raised the prices from 2.25 to 2.75cr.I have always got penalised by postponing my decision to buy a property. Can anybody earn 50 lakhs in matter of two months time. please justify sir. I am looking for the property but I am unable to because nothing suits to my budget. Should I wait for correction ? Will property market ever correct? If  yes then to what extent. Sir during election we got government ehich we wanted then why prices of essentials, food, real estate are increasing. How a poor and common man survive. If we say indian economy is growing, then alongwith that poverty is growing manifold times.Rich is getting more richer and poor is getting more poorer.

    Kalidas says…Monday, November 01, 2010
    NOTE: Always append your name, city and country to your signature. Please follow protocol rigidly if you want reply.

    Builders always try to boost the prices in primary markets. The real prices are known in secondary markets. Just read the prices from the developers and laugh it off.

    Rich people always make money at the cost of poors. It is time immemorial behaviour. In capitalism rich always get richer. It is said that money attracts more money. No need to show sympathy to poor people – they remain poor due to their default. If you want to make money in stocks, forget poor perple and their economics.

  28. Respected Kalidasji,
     
    During your absence period, Chennai Petroleum Corporation limited and MRPL have declared their results:
    http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=500110
    http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=500109
    Both suggestive of positive effect of Price raise took place in June 25 2010. Major companies BPCL, HPCL & IOC have postponed their result declaration date to 2nd week of Nov 2010. In the light of your recommendation on SOE’s kindly opine on these results.
     
    Regards,
     
    V.S.Kumar, Jorhat

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 30, 2010
    Full effects of the price rise will be evident in last Quarter (Dec). Position yourself in these counters now if you do not own any. If you already own these stocks, watch for the result and buy more in correction or dip after the Sep Quarter result.

    What you are going to do is to time your purchase. My habit is to foresee the event and take the pre-emptive position and stay with it. This is why I do not bother much about very short term factors.

  29. Hi Sir
    Is it worthwhile to complete an MBA in 2012? MBA job market is completely dependent on market. Please advice.
     
    Regards
    Ramandeep
    Amritsar-Punjab (India)

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 30, 2010
    Education is the best asset one can have during young formative age. Once this age passes, there are no more opportunities to attain that level of education. The education is not seasonal commidity.

    If you want to pursue any career in education, including MBA, go for it.

  30. Dear Sir,Please refer to my query on  Shree Renuka Sugar on 15th Oct in which I explained my findings regarding the same at then Market Price (82.25). Now it has moved to CMP 90.80.
    News says that the sugar export cap will be finalized somewhere in Mid November and country may have 3-4 mt surplus sugar and due to weak sugarcane production in Brasil, global sugar prices are on surge.
    As of now, GOI has allowed export of 1mt of sugar and if it extends it to 3-4 mt then I think, Shree Renuka Sugar will have excellent opportunity in view of its two mills in Brasil.
    Please advise on this stock.
    RegardsSumit Kr. agarwal, Kanpur, India
    KALIDAS SAYS……..Friday, 15 Oct, 2010You are in right track in thinkiing, but the stock is trading at higher range relative to earnings. I would wait for 35% correction in current prices before jumping in, especially when the markets are at high end.

  31. Announcement:

    I will be back in Mumbai on 28/10 late evening and will reply all pending enquiries by 29/10 and 30/10

     

    Anil Selarka (Kalidas)
    Hong Kong, 28/10/2010

  32. Sir,
    What are your views on GAIL INDIA. (BSE: 532155/NSE: GAIL)
    I have 500@400 Rs. CMP: 495
    You are Bullish on OMCs and you were bullish on PetnetLNG( bought it at 60 and sold it at 125 aftr your 95% sell call) but what about this one? It is the total natural gas play(CNG,LNG,Distribution networks)
    Vijay S. Mumbai India

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 30, 2010
    Take profit in the rally for the time being.

  33. HPCL

    Dear Sir,

    The OMCs looks ripe for investing, especially HPCL which has corrected more than 13% to CMP 485. And going by the magnificient results posted by MRPL, the other OMCs including HPCL should post excellent results especially when the government has agreed to compensate for the subsidy losses.
    I think this is the last time we are seeing HPCL sub-five hundered levels. Time to grab with both hands.

    Your views.

    regards
    Sameer,
    Mumbai, India

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 30, 2010
    I do not want to micro analyze the situations. These are big companies where the bigger or macro picture is more important than micro one.

    Yes, it is time to buy these stocks on dips. Since the results are only days away, buy some of these stocks now and more in the aftermath of result. The upward trend in profits looks like remaining intact. My predictions as per article remain same – there is no change.

  34. Request to put up: Old messages by kalidas
    Dear Anilsir,
    May I take the liberty to ask fellow readers if someone has a collection of your old posts from moneycontrol to mail you and you may put it in the download box. I am trying to make the collection but if in case some one has it, would be really great..I think I have learnt a lot in last 4 months (I was in dark red all over my portfolio-which is nearly green all across now) following kalidas wisdom, but would really wish to learn more on kalidas way of Investing. while reading through your old posts I came across this, “Investment is a blend of Arts, Science and also Commerce. Finding a stock is an Art. Evaluating it is a Science; and practicing it is Commerce.” May be you can right an article on this title, I am sure readers will appreciate it.
    Also, liked your dicision to focus more on articles and stock picks and less on CMCA. I am sorry, but lot of time I found readers wasting your time by asking the same question again and again.
     
    Thanking you,
    amit
    Galway, Ireland.
    26th October, 2010. 23:45

  35. Dear Kalidasji,
    SESA GOA is going down & down can u give ur views for SESA GOA. Is the CAIRN deal good for it or should i exit the stock at current levels.
    TITAN INDUSTRIES Pls give ur views for TITAN INDUSTRIES.

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 30, 2010
    CAIRN is still the best to own or buy more at CMP. I have not followed SESA GOA, so unable to comment. I will study it soon and let readers know.

    No views on TITAN INDUSTRIES. Never followed this stock.
     
     

  36. Hi Kalidasji,

    URGENT note: apparently there was a flash crash in the US Dollar Index on Friday afterhours. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dxy-flash-crash-detonates-entire-currency-complex

    If that happened during equity trading hours during the day on Friday, the market would have surely been shaken badly.

    Please let us know your thoughts on what is happening here and if you still believe that the stock market might have a sharp correction in the coming days ? I do expect Gold to be much higher in the coming months but do you still expect stocks to correct a bit right now? My person take was that the stock market will correct to 10500-700 levels on the DOW right now by early November and we will see 12000 by the end of the year or early Jan.

    Your thoughts please?

    Regards,

    Chandni
    Austin, TX

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 30, 2010
    It looks like FED is not so bothered with US Index. The continued pressure on China to revalue Yuan (which means that USD should decline) and other Asian units by Geithner suggest that US is more bothered about its own economic doom than its currency or debt.

    Almost every month new phrases are being coined – this time “Quantitative Easing or QE” which term is no one understands. In simple terms it means that FED is bent upon printing as much money as it takes to keep the interest rates from rising. Higher interest rates alone or some major failure of banks could trigger crash. At the moment, almost every data is stage managed to support the FED policy or thinking.

    Currency is the giant market – sum total of almost all other markets – translate this market into biggest one. As such it would take extra ordinary movement in this market to cause the crash. Most plausible scenario now is the steady decline in dollar. Once the index breaches 71 level and goes to below 68 or below, there would be simple rush to liquidate the dollar holding. Some pegs to USD, like one in India (unofficially), Hong Kong and other Asian countries might be broken that would engineer the crash. However, Asian countries are so much dependent on US for their economies that it would take some really dreadful news to take them away from steady supporter of USD.

    We are still in derivative paper trading game. The main enemy of this game is “interest Rate” which is kept low by printing more and more money in the name of QE or otherwise. Watch out the international interest rates especially of dollar in London that would act as crystal ball when and where the crash will begin first.

    Yes. the stock market might see sharp correction soon and this is why I wanted everyone to get out of equity by 95% and stay more in gold and silver. These prices are going to accelerate and pick up momentum in last critical month December (November in real terms because the delivery is effected in December for all pending settlements of future contracts meant for December)

    The sudden rise in these precious metals might cause some banks to come into serious trouble but might be rescued by the respective governments again with lesser support from masses.

    Next two months are therefore very heavy for the market. If they pass off without major incident, then only it would be worthwhile to increase the equity exposure selectively in emerging markets like India.

  37.  

    In view that COAL INDIA IPO is going list after about 10 days of  that is around 06.11.2010, and in view of your comment that Indian Governemnt is trying to support the market through mutual funds buying in view of this IPO(quote “GOI intervened through state sponsored or affiliated mutual funds to support the market with massive force so that Coal really did not become more blacker than it already is.”unquote), wont Indian Government try to push the market up till Coal India IPO is listed on the exchanges?? In view of this should sell off be postponed till such date?? Further after IPO & listing do you expect it to follow ruling market trend and be listed at heavy discount to issue price??
    RAJENDRA KUMAR
    NEW DELHI

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 29, 2010
    Indian government usually does not manipulate the stock prices of its IPO. Yes, it gave lot of publicity to Coal India IPO, and that’s it. They raised the money as claimed, so it has served the purpose. How the stock fares is not Indian Government’s business.

    Other conclusions of yours are speculative. It looks like you want to stay in the market, so stay in. It is not necessary to follow my calls rigidly. You have to read everyone and decide yourself.

  38. Dear Sir,
    Wish you a very happy (belated) birthday to you and madam.
    Regards,
    NandakumarAS
    Bangalore,India

  39. sir,
    forgot to add the scrip ZEE news along with ruchi infra and evinix. am really curious to know whats so special about these three. OMC companies, i do agree your reasonings are perfect.
    regards

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 29, 2010
    NOTE: Always append your name, city and country to your signature. Please follow protocol rigidly if you want reply.

    Some of my recommendations are off the cuff. It is not possible to give recommendations in detail all the time, especially for smaller companies.

    If you do not like these scrips you may ignore them. Focus on what you like to have, rather than what I say about smaller scrips.

  40. Kalidasji,
    Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. may have their credit ratings cut by Fitch Ratings because of new rules governing the way the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. supports financial institutions that pose a threat to the health of the U.S. economy.
    __http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304354104575568680709933388.html
    __http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-we-go-fitch-places-bank-america-all-us-banks-rating-watch-negative
    I guess it is the first step…  Dont you think so..?
    The second is.. “Germany Accuses US of Indirectly Manipulating Dollar”
    __http://www.cnbc.com/id/39808247
    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 29, 2010
    I do not give much credence to rating cut or upgrade by reting agencies. They are always last to react, so they go wrong most of the times. If they were pro-active, we would not have seen the present financial crisis.

    Germany of late has become vocal critic of FED. It shows that EU will part its ways from FED or may not follow all the steps of FED as it used to. The crack has develpoed in US-EU relationship and it may aggravate over next 12 to 18 months. Germany has publicly cried that FED is going wrong way to which there was no reaction from FED whatever.

    Other queries of yours is more opinionated and discussion type. It is not suitable for inclusiong here. We discuss here more specifics than general discussions which lead us nowhere.

  41. hello sir,
    Have missed out on your CMCA for nearly a week. Sir there is one question that keeps lingering in my mind and i would be glad if you could give a clear answer.
    From among the thousands of shares in the market why is it that you are focussing on lesser known shares like EVINIX and RUCHI infra when there are thousands of others shares in the market, (satyam, ioc mrpl hpcl etc apart). I Have already bought a reasonable qty of these shares. hence would be glad if you could enlighten me. also pls inform whether i should buy more of IOC and MRPL with the generated surplus RIGHT NOW, or should i wait for the correction to happen.
    regards

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 29, 2010
    NOTE: Always append your name, city and country to your signature. Please follow protocol rigidly if you want reply.

    There are over 5000 companies trading on stock exchanges. When you get to Buffet dinner, you do not eat everything, you always leave something on table.

    I pick up the stock based on the sectoral preference and then individual stock preference in selected sector. It is difficult to quantify more on this method.
     

  42. Sir,
    Can I get your email id. I may need your advises in future and as you are going to stop this CMCA, I like to have your email and I am not going to disturb frequently. These days your blog only giving confidence to me to get out of debts incurred in stock market. Please delete this post whenever you see it.
    Thanks and Regards,
    Krishna,
    Hyd

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 29, 2010
    No need to worry for the time being. CMCA will continue but not with same force as before.

  43. Namaskar Anilji,

    1) On reply of my early (4th OCT’10) quaryies your advice about TCS(then price Rs.960) was ‘hold’ and CIPLA(price was Rs.325) was ‘buy more’.
        Does it still valid (including ‘hold’ to CIPLA) or should I sell those at present rally and buy back on dips? If so what may be the exit prices?
        CMP:   TCS-Rs. 1040 & CIPLA-RS. 342

    2) You are reiterating to buy precious metals(gold,silver) in physical form in view of internet blocade by USA to trade those on electronic media. How is it possible to be happen for long periods or are peak of prices will exist for a limited days? Are paper gold,silver will not achieve your projected price?(In my locality it is not easy to buy in physical form -except jewellary)
    Please throw more light on this.

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 29, 2010
    NOTE: Always append your name, city and country to your signature. Please follow protocol rigidly if you want reply.

    TCS- doing well. My call remain unchanged. May be one can buy on dips. No need to sell soon.

    CIPLA – still good to buy.

    Peak prices always remain for a few days. They do not last too long. It is always difficult to catch the highest or lowest price. The best strategy is to sell progressively on upward climb after allowing some momentum on the upside. Similarly, for buying stock near bottom. No one knows what is the bottom. One may buy during a time when the stock recovers from lows and inching up slowly. We have to catch t he trend, not the absolute prices. Picking up the right trend makes money.

    (2) if it is difficult to buy the gold physically in your area forget this investment in physical form. You may settle for less preferred ETF or other paper derivatives. I never like to involve myself in paper gold. It would be my last result, or otherwise, just buy the good equities.

  44. Respected Sir,
    Chennai Refineries, a subsidiary of IOC has declared its results with a profit of Rs.98 cr as compared to Rs.148cr (YoY) and -Rs.52 cr (QoQ). Cheers to your idea. Govt. is releasing Rs.10000 cr for its H1 subsidy out of 31000 cr under recoveries, out of which, upstream companies are forking out Rs,10000cr, leaving SOE’s to bear the remaining Rs.11000 cr loss.
    IOC, HPCL postponed their Q2 results declaration by 2 weeks. What is cooking there? Pl.enlighten.
    Regards,
    V.S.Kumar, Jorhat

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 29, 2010
    I do not read too much at such losses. It is clear that the Government has finally decided to decontrol the oil prices, with the beginning of Petrol. It will be followed by Diesel which constitute over 80% of OMC revenues.

    I am taking 3 years view that diesel prices will be decontrolled in phased manner from now on, otherwise the deficit will mushroom beyond control.

    Postponing of 2QSep10 result by OMC majors may be due to some physical disbursement of subsidy as you have pointed out. May be the quantum was not known to the oil majors. Only they could have effect on financials for Sep10 – whether it is for upside or downside is difficult to say. However, the trend is to liberalize the diesel prices soon. Only Kerosene prices may not be decontrolled soon. Natural gas prices are already revised upwards and may not cause straon on the government to raise it still further.

    I would not speculate now. I have positioned myself for these stocks on 3 years basis – and preliminary indications are that it has worked. Look at MRPL which has shown improved margin overall, although one time improvement may not be indicative of trend.

    Await for the result of major OMCs. I have not changed my opinion a bit.
     

  45. Dear Kalidas sir, i have purchased 12000 satyam computers on various dated at an average rate of 84. Can i add more or wait for correction. i have 20lacs in cash.
    Regards
    Ravi, chenna, india

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 22, 2010
    Now you have enough. Wait for the quarterly numbers to hit the market somewhere in second week of November. i am leaving for Hong Kong tonight, so i may not reply in time.

  46. Dear Kalidas
     
    Good decision to concentrate more on articles & stock recomondations and less on CMCA.
     
    Regards,
    Mohan, Mumbai, India.

  47. Dear sir,
    Thanks for detailing as to what events you are expecting to occur in near future. I dont have the expertise to have a contrarian view :). I was curious to understand what trigger events could lead to such a scenario.
    You have announced that your focus will move from CMCA to articles/stock recommendations. One way its great news for your ardent followers. At the same time, request you to pick and choose the CMCA queries and pls continue to provide your guidance. This forum is more like a beacon light for investors like me.
    Ofcourse, we must appreciate the fact that you are actually putting in lot of your valuable time to a whole lot of confused minds out here. Really appreciate that.
    Thanks
    Raghav
    Bangalore

  48. ANNOUNCEMENT

    I will be travelling again, this time out of India for about 5 to 7 days during which my response to queries will be very limited.

    After my resumption, there will less emphasis on the Confused Mind Clean Answers column. There will be more emphasis on Articles, Stock recommendations etc. CMCA takes too much of my time

    Anil Selarka (Kalidas)
    October 22, 2010

  49. Hello Sir,

    1) What will be the effect of IOC going for Follow-on Public Offer on its share value? Since IOC FPO is going to add additional 10% shares to the market, Will there be a dip or pop in share price which would severely affect F&O traders?

    2) Do you see any reason why IOC FPO’s price should be too far above or below IOC current market price (400 today)? Do you expect to see a “Catch up game” for IOC share on listing of IOC FPO, meaning if FPO lists at Rs.500, Will IOC share price be spiked to 500 as well?

    4) IOC will commission its biggest refinary at Koyali in November. How does it affect IOC’s earnings this quarter as it has spent lot of money constructing the plant? Would not more spending result in less PAT?

    Thanks in advance for your invaluable advice.

    Amar Allampati
    Atlanta (21st October 2010)

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 22, 2010
    Looks like you are a F&O trader. I have expressed my views strongly that it is not the intention or function of this blog to guide any investor on F&O ballgame.

    IOC Chairman already quoted the FPO prices at Rs 450 when the stock was still languishing between 360 to 380. Since then, the prices moved up close to that FPO level.

    The earnings from these companies will show improvement not from quantity or volume increase but value increase in pricing of petrol, diesel, Kerosene and Natural Gas. if these companies are forced to sell below cost, higher production will not increase their profit, but reduce them.

    Government has already liberalized the Petrol Prices which concerns only 5% to 7% of the entire volume. Diesel prices still under control constitute over 80% of their trades. Watch the government policy on diesel. When the government liberalizes and decontrol diesel prices even partially, it will be huge price positive.

    Government companies like IOC do not manipulate their stock prices. If their target price of say, Rs 450 in not met, they will withdraw or defer the FPO. They are not Reliance or Birlas or Mahindras or Tatas who always look at their share prices before announcing FPO or IPO

  50. Sir ,
     
    I am sure , you would have a good laugh at this .
    The link explains how google escapes taxes . Though it will be useful info to your too ,so sharing .
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-21/google-2-4-rate-shows-how-60-billion-u-s-revenue-lost-to-tax-loopholes.html
     
    sachin , pune , india

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 22, 2010
    In few years, less than 2 years, there will be hue and cry at the Tax Havens like Bermuda, Cayman Island, Ireland, and other West Indian countries. it will be a main topic for discussion at G7 and G20 countries because when the government becomes bankrupt, it chases its own people for receovery of taxes which is its prime income.

    When the tax rates hit low in lower single digits say 2.4% in case of google, the management show larger non exisitent profits to boost the prices of the shares which is one of their major compensation package. This is why Google trades at $600. If its profits were real, and paid @35% in United States, its price will come down to earth and trade at less than $ 60 , that is loss of 90%.

    It happens everywhere. There is nothing wrong in people saving taxes, but saving taxes artificially to boost the share price only because there is no outflow of money in payment of taxes, is wrong. There is no quick fix to this problem – they have to dismantle the Tax Heavens structure – read my chapter on taxes in my book Subprime Resolved where this problem was discussed in details.

  51. Dear Sir,
               Thanks for the reply.
               you have suggested me to wait for 18-20% correction before buying.
               18-20% correction would mean sensex at around 16000. For this to happen a huge amount of money has to exit the market. Forgive me if you find this as a oft repeated question here. What kind of event do you foresee that will take out such amount of liquidity from emerging markets at this time when US is still talking about QE2 & pumping more dollars into system?. just curious to know your view.

    Thanks
    Raghav
    Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 22, 2010
    Some major banks may fail within 1 to 3 months, it is more likely than ever before. The recent sell off in gold and silver prices shows that those banks active in shorting the gold for many years are finding difficult to buy back the gold due to single fact that most producers have stopped selling the production in the future market. If the gold and silver prices rise by another 30% from current level (after sell off), these banks will find almost impossible to cover the short position.

    If the prices go very high for these precious metals, there is every possibility that ECB (European Central Bank) might insisit on physical delivery of gold from FED storage at Fort Knox in USA. Until now, the Europeans were content that their physical gold to the extent lent to US Investment and Bullion banks for shorting purpose, was safe at US Treasury. If the physical gold moves out, it will play havoc in the gold market (once the news becomes known).

    There is also a news that almost US$ 200 billions of MBS (Mortgaged Backed Securities) might be identified for Buy Back by the seller of these securities – US banks -as such transactions have been labelled as fraudulent.

    Bank of America alone has received claim to the extent of US$ 48 billions from various pensions funds and mutual funds. They have received support even from NY Fed. In other words, it has been decided at the top policy level to let BOA (Bank of America) to fail. If it fails, its recent take over during troubled times – Countrywide Financial (largest primary mortgage lender in United States) and Merrill Lynch – might also fail due to sudden withdrawal of funds in billions from the customers. There could be lot of redemption related selling pressure in the market on funds issued or managed by Merrill Lynch and likes who are part of BOA.

    If the huge amount of money can come to India in few days in September and October, they can move out at the fraction of second in electronic market. Easy Come Easy Go is the idiom used unknowingly by the market participants.

    There is already redemption pressure on Indian Mutual Funds who is crying hoarse and complained to government that they need support in the form of incentives to make the people retain their money with them. The Indian Mutual Fund Industry lost over Rs 12000 crores in last 3 months when the market rose by 13% to 15% – they should have received more money in the bull market but they had to pay off the investors who are increasingly dissatisfied with the performance of funds that lags behind the deposit interest rates by yards.

    Now, this is my judgement. If your views differs from mine, you may take contrarian position.

  52. Dear Kalidas ji,
    Satyam price on Nasdaq has been in steady decline for last 3-4 days but volume is low.
    http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/flashquotes.aspx?symbol=SAYCY&selected=SAYCY
    where on Nifty the prices looks to be stable around 80/-.
    I have bought some Satyam shares on NIFTY @81/- and this is the only stock I am buying.  Do you see it going any lower if the company marks any other special charges when the results come out in Nov.
    It looks like Satyam is due for a quick rise before the results as NIFTY volumes are picking up. (6.6m yesterday) and calls for an aggressive buy for trading.
    Regards,
    Harish Vyas
    Chicago, US

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 21, 2010
    Forget Satyam ADRs for the time being. NASDAQ trading needs the market makers or what you call “jobbers” in India. There are many who believe that removal of listing from NYSE is highly stock negative, whereas the truth is otherway around. Almost all leading stocks – Microsoft, Intel, CISCO, Apple, Seagatge, Western Digitrals, Amazon trade exclusively on NASDAQ, not on NYSE. Satyam has therefore gone into better market place, notwithstanding other events leading to de-listing.

    You invest if you belive in the stock. Tech Mahindra is not stupid to invest hundreds of crores of rupees at Rs 57 or about.

  53.  
    Kalidas sir.
    While I was going through your blog, I saw lot of Birthday greetings. I hope very few (1%) might have met you face to face. But, if you look at the volume of greetings, it seems you won their heart by some means. It doesn’t matter whether your all calls are successful or not, but you have right people behind you to support. It means most of them are benefited by your call including me.
    Keep your good working going on. My belated birthday wishes to you.
    Jana, Bangalore, India.
     

  54. Dear Anil Sir,
    I want to buy a piece of land in Gujarat, near by to Vadodara. Do you have any views about it.
    Also would this be the right time to buy a car or wait till prices reduce post correction.
     
    Regards
    $amir, Mumbai , 21/10/2010

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 21, 2010
    I am negative on property, esp built up property or property under construction. In fact, I have sold almost all of my property in India recently except agricultural property and some piece of land in MIDC.

    I do not know much about Vadodra (Baroda). I think the built up houses near Vishwamitra, about 4 kms away from main Vadodra, appears to be well priced. The plus point is that it is independent house.

    Since you intend to buy land, and if not at very high prices, (that is, prices have not doubled in last 12 months), then it is okay. Land prices do not come down fast usually.

    Car is a necessity. No one buys car for investment purpose. It is more like status symbol to let world know that you are doing well.
    If you need the car for normal use, forget about correction or otherwise. the market is competitive enough to get you desired car at desired prices, plus or minus 5%

  55. Kalidas once said that stock market crash are like accidents – you never know when it strikes.

    Therefore no one can predict when a crash will occur -Neither God nor Kalidas.

    Though i fully agree with his views that a crash will occur because nothing fundamentally has improved but the gush of liquidity from Japan Fed, US Fed and England Fed can only propel the markets higher in the short term.

    Therefore whoever sold out completely is most likely to miss out the rally. The better option would be to sell on a piecemeal basis every few hundred points in the upper rally.

    Regards
    Princeofindia 

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 21, 2010
    one correction. God knows better than Kalidas. He knows exacty when and how much the crash will occur. He has Lord Yama on his side to remove the carcases and Lord Shiva to destroy with third eye.

  56. Dear Anil Sir,
    Can you please guide me on IFCI as it’s going to announce results on 27th. I am holding ifci 2000 shares @ 57.5 and CMP 74. Shall I keep till results and sell or at what rate I should exit from this scrip.
    As I do not have money to buy other scrip, I have to sell this and to switch to some other good scrip which can give much profit than holding ifci for some more time. I saw you adviced to buy shree ashtavinayaka and zee news, is it good to switch money to shree ashtavinayaka now?
    Thanks and Regards,
    Gouthami,
    Warangal

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 21, 2010
    The result will be good, not bad. I have already given target earlier to sell at 72. The result depends how much investment stocks have been sold in this rally. If it is substantial, then profit may be better than expected. Otherwise, normal growth will continue.

    Stay on for a while although the market is signiificantly weak than what it looks. The breadth is negative even on rally day.

    You may get around Rs 81 before result is out. After the result, the stock may falter if the profits have not shown enough growth due to investment selling. IFCI missed out selling during last bull time (before 2008) – hope it will not be unwise this time. However, it is still a government owned institution whose officials are governed more by hype in GDP etc when no one understands what is GDP.

    If the result is really very good, then the stock may rise close to 88 to 92. But I would ligheten up at around 81~83 by 60% at least, riding the rally if the market does not correct.

  57. It is reported hat two-thirds of TARP funds have been returned to the US Govt.; and that, the US Govt. has earned $25.2 billion its investment of $309 billion in banks and insurance companies, an 8.2% return over two years according to Bloomberg.  (  http://m.economictimes.com/PDAET/articleshow/6784198.cms )

    Has the US economy started inching forward?
    VC Sekar, Delhi, India

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 21, 2010
    Believe them if you want to. When no American makes any money, how come US government makes over $ 25 billions?

    Further, US government guaranteed over $ 300 billions of worthless debt of Citicorp. The real market value of those guaranteed bonds is close to zero. When you provide for that, there will be huge net loss.

  58. Kalidasji,

     They say, “The Astounding Failure of the US Educational System”. Is It true? 

    If there is a provable relationship between formal education and intelligence, it is probably an inverse one. The more letters you have behind your name (MBA, PhD, JD, MFA, CPA) the greater level of stupidity one likely possesses, as the attainment of a higher level of education means that one has been exposed for a far longer time period than the average citizen to the indoctrination process

    __http://www.zerohedge.com/article/astounding-failure-us-educational-system

    Your comments Please…

    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India.

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 21, 2010
    None. Too abstract to comment on this type of article. it is meant for scholars and students. Not for professionals.

    There is a saying in our Gujarati ” Buddhi kona baap ni” ? That is, intelligence is an individual trait – it is no longer exclusive domain of few elites.

    Avoid all bold comments. Use normal fonts. Everyone reads everything over here, so do not try to get extra attention.

  59. Kalidasji,

    I have got the SpiceJet – Open Offer Document.  There are only two forms in the Document.  One is Acceptance Form and the other one is Withdrawal Form. 

    How do I decline the Open Offer ( Open Offer price Rs. 57 per share).  I have already sent an Email to Karvy Stock Broking…

    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 21, 2010
    Do nothing. If you do not show acceptance, it is presumed to have been rejected. Who is going to accept the offer at 57 when the market price is almost 30% higher?

  60. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-21/asian-stocks-drop-for-a-fifth-day-led-by-banks-hana-financial-declines.html

    Dear Kalidas SirWhen whole of Asia is in red, our market is almost 2% up.. Coal India IPO is oversubscribed by 12 times.. Is decoupling with the rest of the economies in work now .. Is it possible that we may witness one big Indian growth story unfolding in our lifetime and therefore should remain invested irrespective of what happens in US/Europe/elsewhere. Though one swallow will not make a summer and today’s contrarian rise of our market doesnt mandate a conclusion like this, but just the food for thought !! Has the economy come full circle ? Is India poised to grow bigtime? There was a time when India was richest in the world, there was a time when diamonds were only found in India, there was a time when people world over were exploring the routes to go to India notwithstanding the risk of perishing in the high seas….. etc etc .. list is long …
    Though a bit out of the league, but  i would love to hear your vision of India @ 2020 (not the nifty this time but the Year) with all the vagaries and vices that currently prevail in our corrupt political, judical,banking and adminstrative systems.

     
    Probably require an article from you If time permits..
    With warm regards and best wishes
    NSri, Pune
    India

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 21, 2010
    Where is the question of decoupling when the market focusses opnly FII money from morning till evening? Almost everyone reads FII figures everyday.

    Past glory is not indicative of future success, that is what Mutual Funds write in their red herring prospectus all the time. If you want to invest, put your nationalistic and idealistic feelings aside.

    Your last sentence says all ” it says….with all the vagaries and vices that currently prevail in our corrupt political, judical,banking and adminstrative systems.” When the national body is filled with the filth, you are bound to get sick, contract cancer to dengyu disease. Better invest in healthy body, do not believe that the chronically sick patient will recover and start running.

    Growth stays only in clean economies, not current corrupt one. if national infrastruicture is improving and has lot of committed investment, how come that Cement sales are declining in volume all over India?

    I know what you want. You want my endorsement that present climate is suitable for investment. if that was so, I would not have given sell call to liquidate 95% of investment.

  61. Really a Correction will come?

    Dear Anil,

    Markets are not obliging for a meaningful correction. Whatever shallow correction of 1.5%-2% takes place is bought into and not only bought but markets gives an upward movement. Not only Indian markets but Singapore, Hongkong, Korean, European and US markets are rallying for all the right and wrong reasons. Even China has come a long way after opening of long holidays. Whether the markets are taunting to the watchers who are expecting a meaningful correction of 15%-20%? Shall we see a correction only after Sensex crosses its previous high of 21200?

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 21, 2010
    When the patient is on deathbed and lives on Oxygen, no one knows when he will die. Die he will for sure.

    The market is already in correction. 3 days down and one day up. The bredth is also negative. I do not read other markets who follow Dow. Itherefore continue to read Dow which is rising inspite of worsening fundamentals. Bank of America will fail soon within 2 to 3 months.

    If you believe in the theory of “already discounted” , stay with the market at your cost. My sale call stays regardless of deceptive rally at times. Do not ask me questiuon again and again when and how much the correction will come about and whether the market will rise to 21200 before falling again. Your approach is technical, mine is fundamental and futuristic. Eveyone has his own view, so if your views are positive about the market, do not sell or even buy more.

    I am liquid in most of my investment except for gold and silver. I will maintain my stance.

  62. Dear Sir
     
    You had frequently ignored my question regarding Birla Power Solution Limited’s future and price.
    Does my question is not fit to this blog?
     
    Waiting for your reply with confusion about this company.
     
    Regards
    R. Subha
    Chennai, India.

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 21, 2010
    I really do not have time to analze this situation. I am travelling more and internet access is very slow at most places. When I am ready, will let you know.

  63. Dear Sir,
    Belated wishes for your birthday!
    I wanted to know your opinion on following stocks
    Spicejet – 700 shares @ 52 – whats your price target?
    K View Sell 500 at 92 or about. Hold rest for a while
    Satyam – 400 @ 89 – should i accumulate more?
    K View Yes, with both hands
    MRPL – 400 @ 78 – accumulate more?
    K View Yes
    RNRL – 500 @ 56, CMP 39 – should i sell?
    K View Better buy now. It is holding at this level for quite long time. The downside is now limited.

    Also, could you suggest few growth stocks which have good dividend yield and limited downside potential? For ex: whats your opinion on Balmer Lawrie, if you have observed this stock its been having good growth and has good dividend yield. Im asking this purely for defensive portion of portfolio.
    Thanks
    Raghav
    Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 21, 2010
    Balmer Lawries is a good stock to own but the market is against you. Let the market correct by 18% from top and then buy

  64. Dear Kalidasji,

    I wish you and your wife a belated happy birthday and many many happy returns of the day. May almighty shower his choicest blessings on both of you to fulfill all your desires and apirations to make your life happy and contended.

    I pray almighty to always keep you in pink of health for the benefit of innumerable investors like me, who count on your impeacable analysis and advise on stocks, currencies, commodities, properties and markets relating thereto.

    With Kind regards,

    Prakash Khair
    Mumbai

  65. Dear Sir,
    You proposed and market disposed. Markets fell as per predictions. Actually i was not invested in the market all these days. After reading your blog, i was waiting for the correction as you predicted it. Shall start investing in the stocks advised by you from next week onwards? I was also thinking of investing Vijaya Bank, it is 103 cmp now. Could you please throw some light on this stock as well?
    Best Regards
    Shaan
    Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 21, 2010
    Not yet. The correction has just set in and it is not deep enough to shout at you – come on and buy me.

  66. Respected Sir

    Please show some light on the effects/impact of recently China interest rate hike for Commodity market, Currencies, Stock market (China, US, India) and GOLD.

    With regards

    Renu Khanna
    New Delhi, India

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 21, 2010
    No relationship with China’s interest rates and global markets. Some funds shorted the markets including gold and silver, so when this news hit market they doubled up the position to make the China Interest Rates as villain of peace. Chinese Yuan is not an international or convertible currency, so it can not have effect on money flow from international markets.

  67. Hi sir,
    Belated Birthday wishes to you and your wife. God gives you more happy years with wealth and health.
    Regards,
    Krishna
    Hyd

  68. Respected Sir,

    Many many happy returns of the day to you and madam.

    regards
    seshavataram

  69. Dear Sir

    Wishing you and your wife   belated Happy  Birthday and Many Many returns of the day .

    Shiva
    Bangalore
    India

  70. Respected Kalidasji,
    My best wishes to You and your Wife on your happy Birthday.
    At this juncture, we were supposed to give you a gift, but you delivered us a gift in the market fall as it was predicted by you. The irony is market fall is a negative feeling but with your guidance we are saving instead of shaving from market gyrations. I remembered you many times today and thanks to you for your good deeds.
    Once again kindly accept my best wishes.
    Regards,
    V.S.Kumar, Jorhat

  71. Dear Sir,
    Wishing you both a very Happy Birthday. God bless you with good health and happiness in life.
    Thanks,
    Siva, Chennai
     
     

  72. Dear Sir ,
    Your recommendation  on  Shree Ashtavinayak shares is yet another feather in your  cap of spot on analysis ..  Thank you sir for your continued  guidance  and tips .
    thanks & regards
    Sajith, chennai , 19-oct-10
     
     

  73. Dear Sir,

    Wishing you and your wife “HAPPY BIRTHDAY”.May god bless you and your family.

    Ravi Sehgal
    Bangalore, India

  74. Anil Bhai,
    Wishing you and Mrs. a very Happy Birthday.
    Your ardent admirer,
    Victor Junior
    Delhi, India

  75. Dear Kalidas Sir,

    Many many happy returns of the day.

    Regards,
    Prakash

  76. Dear Sir,
    May be a stupid question:
    If a company gives bonus shares, what can be read between the lines? Is company doing well? not well?
    who will benefit from this? Company or share holders or both or neither?
    Please educate us.
    Best Regards
    Shaan
     

  77. Dear Kalidasji,
     
    Happy Birthday to u and madam. Wish u all the success n happiness of this world. Keep guiding us as always….
     
    Regards,
    Ojal Suthar,
    Udaipur, Rajasthan, INDIA
    18-OCT-2010 @ 09:42 PM

  78. Sir – Many Happy Returns of the day, wish you a health life.

    Regards,
    Amish Shah
    Ghatkopar (W)

  79. Dear Sir,
    Wish you very good health and many happy returns of the day for you and your wife.
    I would like  your views on Citigroup results which topped analyst expectations. other banks might follow the same, might be my thinking vision is small, but these good results do not signal if there is any major correction is coming in world markets, you only can enlighten us.
    Regards
    $amir, Mumbai 10/18/2010

  80. Respected Sir
    Wish You and your wife a wonderful happy Birthday and many many more to come.Your positive aura has turned even falling indian market to positive at close today. Have a great day.
    cheers
    arun
    Mumbai , india
    18.10.2010

  81. Dear Kalidasji,
    I have 4500 Master Shares @ 2.45 (acquisition cost since inception including bonus/right).
    Current NAV is around 33.25
    Should I redeem and invest in OMC as suggested to other boarders or continue with it?
    Regards,
    Ghanshyam
    Surat, India
    18th Oct 2010

  82. Dear Anilbhai,

    Men are like wine: some turn to vinegar, but the best improve with age. I am sure that all of us on this blog will be proud to say that you are the latter.

    Wish you and your better half a very Happy Birthday!!

    Regards,

    The Monk, Singapura

  83. Dear Sir,

    Wishing you both health n happiness in life

    Regards
    Rakesh
    New Delhi,India

  84. Dear Sir,
    Many Many Happy Returns of the day..Happy Birthday
    Although your prediction regarding correction seems to be correct, but the reasons you mentioned such as Market to Marrket loss or derivative exposures are not visible in the results declared so far.
    Axis Bank results, there were no indication of losses in bonds no derivative losses.
    Same with Infosys, L&T ..Results were excellent.
    Hope you have gone through those things..
    So kindly clarify whether the call for selling in rallies remains there or not, as the the reasons for crash was not visible in the results declared so far.
    With Warm Regards
    Rajan
    Kannur, India

  85. Kalidasji,
     
    I wish you & Your soul mate very Happy Birthday
     
    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India

  86. Namaste Kalidasji,

    Best birthday wishes (belated) to you & your wife. Thanks for the philantropic work you are doing.

    Rgds
    Amit
    Munich, Germany

  87. Dear Kalidas Ji,

    Wish you and your wife a very happy BirthDay.

    Best Wishes,

    Regards,
    Navin
    Ghaziabad, India

  88. Dear Kalidas Ji,

    Wish you and your wife a very happy birthday ! May GOD shower his blessings on you and your family.

    Regards,
    Anurag
    Noida, India

  89. Kaldasji

    Wish you and your wife many many happy returns of the day, May god bless you and your family with health,wealth and happiness.

    Raja
    KL
    Malaysia

  90. Dear Sir,
    Wish you and your wife a very Happy Birthday.
    Aap Dono jiyo Hazaro Saal aur Saal ke Din ho Pachas Hazar.
    Regards
    Sakchi,Delhi,India
     

  91. Dear Kalidas Sir and Madam,

    Wishing you both a very Happy Birthday. May all your dreams come true this year.

    Regards,

    Brawny M

  92. Dear Anil Ji
     
    THIS IS TO WISH YOU AND YOUR WIFE A VERY HEALTHY,HAPPY AND WEALTHY LIFE.MAY ALMIGHTY GRANT ALL YOUR SINCERE WISHES AND FULFILL ALL YOUR DESIRED DREAMS.YOUR DEVOTION AND THE SPIRIT TO HELP PERSONS IS APPRECIABLE.
    HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO BOTH OF YOU .
    M.Atique Vohra
    Kanpur-India

  93. Dear Kalidas Ji

    Wishing you & Madam a Very Happy Birthday.

    I pray to GOD to give you immense pleasure and happiness with lots of success in life. I wish all the listed Goals you have which is still to be done will be done very soon.

    God Bless you and family. 

    warm regards

    Renu Khanna
    Delhi, India

  94. Kalidas Jee

    Wish you and your wife a very very happy birthday.

    Vikram
    NJ USA

  95. Dear Sir,

    Warm wishes to both you and madam. Hope you and your family get the best life has to offer.

    Regards,
    Santosh

    Bangalore
    India

  96. Mr & Mrs Kalidas
     
    Wishing you many happy returns of the day. May god bless you with excelant health.
     
    Regards
     
    Mohan , Mumbai, India.
     
     

  97. hi, I would like to have your opinion on Jai Corp. I am holding it since around 2 years. What are the prospects.
    And secondly, your view on markets.
     
    Regards,
    KS(keyur)
    Ahmedabad
    India
    18-10-2010

  98. Dear Loved & respected Couple (Mrs&Mr.Anil selarka ),
    Wishing you both  a  very happy Birthday and  life full of happiness, health , wealth and the  almighty’s  continued blessings.
     
    Best regards
    Sajith , Chennai,18-Oct-10
     
     
     

  99. Dear Sir,
     
    Wish you very happy birthday.
     
    thanks,
    $amir, Mumbai , 10/18/2010

  100. Dear Sir,
    Wishing you and your wife a very Happy Birthday. God Bless you Both.
     
    Amit
    Melboure Australia
     

  101. Birthday Greetings to Mrs and Mr Anil Selarka…

    May God Bless you both in abundance for many many years. You have shared your wisdom with thousands and helped so many that it is my prayer from the bottom of my heart that the Lord assists you walk towards the Supreme at every step in life.

  102. Dear Kalidas sir, Wishing you and your wife many more happy returns of the day.
    Regards
    Ravi, chennai, india

  103. Mrs. & Mr. Anilji,
    Wish you both Health & Happiness in Life.
     
    Ganesan J
    Salem, TN, India

  104. Kalidasji ,
       wish you and your wife a very very happy b’day  .
    Best regards,
    Prashant
    Chennai, India

  105. Dear Shri Selarka,
    Best wishes and God bless
     
    Vineet Bhatia
     

  106. Dear Kalidasji,

    Wishing you and your wife many many happy returns of the day on behalf of our family. May Lord continue to shower his blessings on you and your family

    Jai Shree Krishna

    Regards,
    Sonali Bhatt
    Chennai, India

  107. Dear Kalidasji,

    Wish you and your betterhalf many happy returns of the day. Tum Jiyo Hajaro Saal Yeh Meri Hai Arjoo and be our guiding spirit which you have been these many years.
    Wish you Happy Dassera.

    J.H.Adur

    BAHRAIN

  108. Hello Kalidas sir,

    Happy Dassehra and wish you and your spouse happy birthday in advance!!!

    I have liquidated all my share holding as per your advise with some notional loss and will wait for downslide.
    God bless you for the way and direction you show for common man investors like me.

    Regards,
    Shailesh

  109. In view that COAL INDIA IPO is going to open and will list after about 15 days of closing of IPO that is around 06.11.2010, and in view of your comment that Indian Governemnt is trying to support the market through mutual funds buying in view of this IPO(quote “GOI intervened through state sponsored or affiliated mutual funds to support the market with massive force so that Coal really did not become more blacker than it already is.”unquote), wont Indian Government try to push the market up till Coal India IPO is listed on the exchanges?? In view of this should sell off be postponed till such date?? Further after IPO & listing do you expect it to follow ruling market trend and be listed at heavy discount to issue price??
    RAJENDRA KUMAR
    NEW DELHI

  110. Wishing  you and kaki a  Happy birth day and healthy life.

    Ketan
    Hongkong

  111. Dear Anilji,
    Wishing you and your wife a very Happy Birthday and a very Happy Dushera, filled with loads of health wealth and prosperity.
    My apologies for not being in touch since long(caught up in my own chakrvyu of things)
    My congratulations on your impeccably timed sell call.
    God Bless all at home.
    Regards
    pp
    Mumbai,India

  112. Dear Mr.& Mrs. Anil,
     
    May God bless you with many happy returns together. We wish all good health and prosperity to your family.
     
    Rang-Jama, Bangalore.

  113. Many Happy Returns of the day Sir

  114. Wish you and your wife a very happy birth day, and wish you many more such happy occasions.  May God bless you with all that deserve – health, wealth and prosperity.
    We are thankful to you for the guidance and selfless service.
    Muthu, Chennai, 17-Oct-2010

  115. Many Happy Returns of the day to you & Mrs. Selarka.

    Deekay
    New Delhi
    17th October 10

  116. Dear Kalidas

    Many happy returns of the day to you and your wife.

    May god give you two long life and many thanks for sharing your knowledge. You are a remarkable person and i liked a quote someone gave ” yours is the only school where we pay no fees but learn a lot”.

    Though i disagree with your sell call i must admit that i have  learnt a lot over the last  couple of years from you.

    regards
    princeofindia
    abu dhabi

  117. HAPPY BIRTHDAY

    Happy birthday to you and your wife. Have a wonderful life ahead.

    Regards
    Manjunath Shetty
    Bangalore India
    OCT 16 2010

  118. Sir,
    Thank you for your kind reply and this is to wish you a very happy birthday.. MAY GOD GIVE YOU THE STRENGTH TO WORK SELFLESSLY AND TO HELP THE INVESTOR FRATERNITY FROM BEING HOODWINKED BY THESE SO CALLED ANALYSTYS AND TECHNICAL EXPERTS. MAY GOD BLESS YOU AND GIVE YOU AS MANY YEARS OF FRUTFUL AND HEALTHY LIFE.
    REGARDS
    vivard(haridas)

  119. Dear Anilji,
    Wishing you and your wife many happy returns of the day.
    May God bless you with everything you need.

    Regards
    Awadhesh,Mumbai

  120. Respected Sir,

    Please accept my good wishes to you and your wife on the occassion of your birthday. May God bless you all with good health and long fruitful life.
    Regards
    Suraj
    Panchkula.
    India

  121. Dear Anil Sir,
    Wishing you and your wife a very happy birthday…May god bless you with all the health, happiness and wealth. Its amazing the way internet has chnaged peoples lives. I always feel, Its almost like a family here on the blog. People respect you as their elder family member. This is solely for the wonderful work you are doing and the wealth of knowledge you have. And the story does not end only with the shares and investments. People come seeking advice on other issues as well, which might be of personal nature and you have always been kind to help them. YOU WELL DESERVE THE RESPECT WHAT THE READERS ARE GIVING YOU. And thats why when some one posts something against you, people almost attack on the person. May god bless these relationships and give you all the best things in your life..Happy Birthday to both of you again.
     
    Thanking you always,
    Amit, Galway, Ireland.
    16/10/10 13:29

  122. Dear Kalidas Sir and Mrs  Selarka,
    Wishing  you many happy return of the day!!!  May god give you  both Health, Wealth and Happiness .
     Regards,
    Bhakti, UK

  123. Dear Kalidasji,
    Many Many happy returns of the day to you and your better half. May god bless you with all joy and prosperity.
     
    Regards,
    Yogesh,
    Bahrain

  124. Dear Anilbhai

    First of all let me join the corus and wish the lucky couple Happy Birthday.
    Second, a minor correction to an answer you gave to one of your followers, about Goldmoney and Palladium.
    They ie Goldmoney donot do palladium, they only deal in gold, silver and platinum. Do you or any other boarder know of any one from whom one can deal in palladium online?
    Have a nice trip.
    DG
    London, UK

  125. Dear Sir,
    Wishing you and your wife many happy returns of the day. I hope you have a great year ahead.
    God bless.
     
    Regards
    Vyas, Bangalore, India

  126. Note for the Readers:

    It is not possible to acknowledge the best wishes from the readers. I thank everyone for their wishes.

    I will be out of station for  5 days during which I may not have time to reply. Kindly excuse me and avoid posting queries to avert disappointment.

    Anil Selarka (Kalidas)
    16/10/2010

  127. Dear Sir,
    Wishing You very Happy Birthday.
    Regards,
    Rajmohan babu,
    Pointe Noire, Congo
     

  128. Ah well…I almost forget that your and your wife’s Birthday falls on same date.
    Wishing your wife a Very Happy Birthday as well!! I hope you both have a blissful life ahead.
    Cheers!
    Ramandeep Singh
    Amritsar

  129. Dear Anil ji
    Wishing you a very Happy Birthday and everlasting health for you and your family.
    Thanks for your guidance. I just cleared my GMAT and I have some doubts that only you can clear. I’ll mail you shortly for your highly regarded opinion. Please find time to reply whenever you can.
    Regards
    Ramandeep Singh
    Amritsar (Punjab)-India
     
     

  130. Dear Kalidasji,
    I also join the other board members to wish you a very happy birthday. May The Almighty Bless You with Happiness In Your Family & Life..
    Regards,
    Ghanshyam
    Surat, India
    16th Oct 2010
     

  131. Kalidasdji,
    What a day it is and for us when u took a birth to share the knowledge among all the readers here.
    Wish all your dreams and hard work comes true and let the whole world know that kalidas analysis never goes wrong.
    Wishing you and your wife a very Happy Birthday! :)
    Regards,
    Ashish
    (Mumbai)
     

  132. Dear Sir,
    Many Many Happy returns of the day and the days to come!
    I asked for your advise on taking 3L Loan at 14% Reducing balance interest. You said, it is not a bad idea, but timing is wrong.
    This 14% int offer is till 10th of this Nov. Will it be a good idea if i take this loan and start pumping into the market (buying stocks u advised) after 15th Nov onwards? Every month EMI will be paid by selling the bought stocks. I can even adjust EMI without even selling stocks (for alteast 5-6 months).
    Best Regards
    Shaan
    Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    I think you were already advised. Using borrowed money is a good idea but the gains have to exceed the cost of funds to make decent money. Yes, the selected stocks can give you over 300% return against cumulative cost of funds at 50%, but wait for the correction to deepen and then use the funds. At the moment, I am not in favour of using borrowed money because the interest rates are on strong rise.

    Watch out for the quarterly numbers of IOC and if they are good, then take position. Borrowed money are utilized best when the stocks are down by 50% to 70% so that the stocks could double or treble from low base. In that case, the cost of funds (interest cost) can be recovered faster than before.

  133. Dear Anil ji,

    Wish you many many happy returns of the day. May the best in the world be bestowed upon you.

    I too have sold almost everything except Satyam, IOC and TechMahindra. I hope I am okay to retain TM as well. Please let me know if I should sell those as well.

    -Rahul R R
    London, UK

  134. Many Happy Returns of the Day to your wife and to you, Kalidasji!
     
    Suresh Krishna
    Thane
    India

  135. Anil Ji,

    many many happy returns of the day and the days which are yet to come.

    you are my first big school where i paid nothing and learned alot and still learning.

    Regards
    Saagar

  136. Dear Kalidasji,
    Many Happy Returns of the Day !!! Happy B’Day !!!
    May god give you and you wife Health, Wealth and Happiness for many years to come.
    I would be travelling and hence writing to you beforehand.
    I have been reading (for last 1 year) writings by one fellow called ‘Martin Armstrong”. This guy is writing from a JAIL. And it all appears that he has been jailed for 7 years just for contempt of court and it seems Goldman Sachs is behind he being in Jail. Here is his website : http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.com/
    I have found his Cycle Theory amazing. He has some wild predictions about Gold. Some of his predictions were beyond me to comprehend.
    Happy weekend reading !
    Dongre, Mumbai, India, Oct 16/2010
    PS: also attaching an interesting chart.

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    Noted and thanks for your best wishes. I would be travelling from 16/10 top 20/10 within India and from 23/10 to 27/10 – out of India. I will return to India on 28/10 and may stay in India for about 4 weeks after which I will return to United States.
     

  137. sir,
    forgot to add to my earlier post to congratulate you for your prediction that is proving to be true. I am so convinced by your theories that i have stopped reading any other material other than you observations and comments. i wish to cash in before the market genuinely collapses. i am already late to sell and hence this impatient query.
    thankx.

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    Never make that mistake again. Read from all reliable sources and some well known learned stock analysts or columinist. I always do. Make independent judgement later on. just because i was right a couple of time does not mean that others are less worthy to read.

  138. sir,
    with all humility i wish to ask, why my query is not being answered? i find you have replied to many queries both before and after my post on ur site. Has there been any lapse on my part or is it just because of the computer problem. I really hope and wish you will answer my query very soon. i have already made my post 4-5 times on this site. sorry if i am seeming impatient.
    thanks.
    vivard(haridas) kerala. india.

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    There is no lapse on your part. Your query is very long and contains the stocks I do not know. it requires lot of time to answer. Other short queries are replied quickly.

  139. Dear Sir,
    One bank is offering me a loan of 3 Lakhs at 14% interest reducing balance for 12 or 24 or 36 months. Will it be a good idea if I take this loan and invest it 3 stocks Ruchi, Satyam & IOC? I’m thinking of paying EMI by selling the stocks proportionately. Is this viable option? I need your advice on this.
    Best Regards
    Shaan
    Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    Not a bad idea but timing is wrong. Use borrowed money when the market slump deepens so as to correct the stock prices by at least 12%

  140. Anilji..
    Just fantastic prediction (atleast 1month before) that this fall would come… Thank God for giving you that great power with greater responsibility by helping and saving small investors..
     
    And thank GOD for letting us cross eachother at MMB board and here.. Now we will all wait for this crash/correction to complete and wait for your next call to BUY the GEMS which you already picked..
     
    Just Hats off to you Anilji..
    Sreeram, London UK
    1500hrs 15th Oct 2010
    P.s: Wish You and Mrs. Selarka Advanced Happy Birthday wishes..
    MAY GOD BLESS YOU AND YOUR FAMILY WITH TONS OF HEALTH n HAPPINESS.. My daughter’s birthday is on 19th Oct n mine on 10th Oct..

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    Thanks for your wishes.
     

  141. Dear Sir,

    Just to correct you eGold is traded in NSEL not NSE, in NSE you can trade with ETF only. NSEL is a new exchange, All the brokers are not registered with NSEL even though if they registered they are not dealing with there all branches, Herein the link for NSEL

    http://www.nationalspotexchange.com/

    Regards
    Rakesh
    New Delhi, India

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    Thanks. I was mixed up with NSE and NSEL

  142. Hi Sir
    Can you please tell us at what level are you expecting the market to be after correction?
    I have not sold my IOC stocks as I am a long term investor although that forms around 35% of my portfolio. Please let me know if it is OK to hold those.
     
    Thanks
    Gurpreet
    Jalandhar

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    Wait until 2Qsep10 result for IOC. Do not be worried. We will decide later what to do. Further, I advised maximum exposure to 30% combi9ned of IOC, HPCL. BPCL and MRPL. If you take more positon in single stock, there is nothing I can do about it. In any case, you may win this position. Wait for 15 more days or until 2QSep10 numbers are out.

    The market dropped on 3 out of 4 days. One day rally was misleading. The correction will be deep – the market may go to 14000 first and then to 10,000 or so if global correction sets in.

  143. Dear Sir,
     
    Kudos to you once again. Completely flabbergasted by the timing of your sell call.
     
    Have a great weekend.
     
    Regards
    Vyas, Bangalore, India

  144. Sir,
     
    Arvind Mills bought at 42.5 qty 5000. Should i still hold? Does your sell call apply to this one?

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    I wrote in simple English – sell 95% of your holdings. It says all. Do not ask me to comment on individual stock. My exceptions were mentioned as Satyam and IOC

  145. Dear Sir,
    Zee News – 1500 @ 14.23 –  CMP – 16.00
    Due you see it will make up move in near future ( before the expected market crash)?
    Or better to sell and take the marginal profit.
     
    Thanks,
    -Santosh, Bangalore, India.

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    It is upto you. When I invest into such small value counters, I do not trade. I wait until the stock trebles.

  146. Sir waiting for your comments , looks like your answer disappeared again

    Dear Anilji,
    Thxs for your answer . You are saying
    “hold as much potential as Rand.” 
     
    I dont have zar as of now . But can manage to give INR to my friend and he will give me ZAR. Today Zar is 6.45 to INR. So suppose i buy 15k Zar , do you mean to say i will benefit and will get more INR ifi sell that 15k Zar (after how much period).
    Also it is often noticed that when USD to Zar is down, Zar to rupee goes high. So do you see Zar coming to 6 level to USD .
    Regds
    Sameer
    Pune
    Sameer
    11 Oct 10 at 5:15 PM
    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    I did reply a day before but it disappeared somehow. I will reply it again later today. Watch this space.

    Sameer
    11 Oct 10 at 7:41 PM

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    One of the most important principle of Investment, in which no one should ever compromise, is that the concerned investment must be under your direct control. Do not rely on your friend under any circumstances. He will give your investment last priority – it is none of his business to bother about your interest or investment item.

    I would not suggest you RAND for simple reason that India is not well suited to buy or sell this currency from within India. It is relatively illiuquid and I have seen the banks like HSBC keeping the spread of about 10% between buy and sale.

    Focus on Australian dollar. it is still good to buy until 1.03 bvut best level to buy is correction to 0.975

  147. Dear Kalidasji

    With the open offer for SPICEJET starting from October 18, 2010, what will be the impact on the stock price.

    Is it advisable to sell now or wait for 88~90 as advised by you.

    Thanking in advance

    regards
    Ryon, Mumbai, India,
    15th October, 2010

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    I do not change my views. The prices will rise soon after the open offer ends.

  148. Today’s Economic Times headlines is:
     
    OTHER MARKETS CLOSE GATES
    Gush of dollars set to hit India
    Govt,RBI May Be Forced To Go For Selective Controls
     
    http://lite.epaper.timesofindia.com/mobile.aspx?article=yes&pageid=1&edlabel=ETD&mydateHid=15-10-2010&pubname=&edname=&articleid=Ar00100&format=&publabel=ET
     
    Do you think it can postpone the upcoming correction?

    Regards,
    Akhilesh Singh
    Noida
    15 October 2010

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    if you want to be perennial bull, stay with the market. There is no change my views. Do not ask me this question again and again only because others are saying so.

  149. Dear Sir,
    Due to excellent user interface and services,I am thinking to open the trade racer account with ICICI direct com ..
    I have read your negative views on private banks.
    Could you please suggest opening account with ICICI Securities will have any impact due to collapse of icici bank ? and how would my money if any in ICICI Bank savings account will get impacted , if this bank collapse ?
    Regards
    $amir, 15/10/2010

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    Not much. Go ahead and buy through them. Stocks are held in the depository which is a trust account.

  150. SBI Bond
    Anilji,
    Today I came to know about sbi bond which is offering 9.5% for 10 years.
    Do you think its good to invest in it.
    Here is the link fyi.
    http://epaper.dnaindia.com/bigwin.aspx?url=EpaperImages151020101510188962-large.jpg&eddate=10/15/2010&pageno=9&edition=9&prntid=126729&bxid=950&pgno=9
    Regards,
    Awadhesh
    Mumbia,15th Oct’10

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 16, 2010
    Not good enough because the rates are on rise that may bring down the bond prices later. With every 1% rise in interest rates, the bond prices will go down by 11%.

    The bank deposit rates are almost near to what SBI offers. Skip this offer – it is good only for money market funds

  151. Dear Kalidas ji,
    I am 90% cash now. Sold most of the portfolio except 2000 Ruchi Infra (bought between 33 and 39, Avg 36/-, CMP 34.6) and 500 Satyam @98 (CMP 86).
    I did not sell them both being trading in the lower range. Would you advise to stay with them or buy more or sell them for now and then start over afresh after the correction which looms at horizon.
    Regards,
    Harish Vyas,
    Chicago, US

    KALIDAS SAYS……..Friday, 15 Oct, 2010
    You have sold enough. No need to sell the remaining stocks you own which are trading at lower price range. Buy 500 Satyam more since price difference is more and prospects much higher. Current selling is sentimental due to delisting of ADRs on NYSE – which is non earning event.

  152. Dear Sir,
    Please provide your comments on “Shree Renuka Sugar” keeping in view the following:
    1) Global sugar prices are increasing, view lower than expected production worldwide (Brazil, Pakistan, China etc.) while India’s production is expected to increase from 18.5 mn tonnes to 25.5 mn tonnes (domestic prices are going down).
    2) 3 mn tonnes of surplus is supposed to remain with India after meeting its own consumption demands and till now govt. has allowed 1 mn tonnes of sugar exports.
    3) Renuka Sugar has has two sugar mills in Brazil. It is set to get benefited by the arbitrage in the domestic & International prices.
    4) Current EPS is 4.53 & PE Ratio 18.15 (CMP 82.25)
    Regards
    Sumit Kr. agarwal, Kanpur, India

    KALIDAS SAYS……..Friday, 15 Oct, 2010
    You are in right track in thinkiing, but the stock is trading at higher range relative to earnings. I would wait for 35% correction in current prices before jumping in, especially when the markets are at high end.

  153. Sir,
    I bought about 1.6 KG of gold, 600 gms physical and 1 KG certificate between Nov – Dec 2009. The CMP of the purchased gold has risen about 11% in value.
    My gold holdings is currently 17% of my portfolio of investible money. I would like to know if i can purchase some more Gold at CMP? If yes, how much more at what price.
    As i would be using SGD for purchase of Gold, what  is your projection of gold prices versus SGD?
    Thanks
    Bobby, Singapore

    KALIDAS SAYS……..Friday, 15 Oct, 2010
    How come you are making only 11% in value, when you have bought Gold at much cheaper prices, if I remember your queries several months ago. Looks like you are evaluating gain vs. Singapore dollars, not in USD terms.

    Gold is still a buy judging from the momentum which is gaining speed. Add in small increments upto USD 1585/10 gms. Buy about 400 grams more.

    Since you are in Singapore and paying taxes @ 7%, better buy in India. There is a product eGold trading on NSE which reflect the real time prices in gold. Alternatively, buy from Goldmoney with a delivery in Singapore which may not attract sales tax for receiving delivery in Singapore. Try out a small deal and see whether you can import physical gold without any taxes.

    I can not speculate over gold prices in Singapore dollar. SGD may also appreciate, but focus only on USD prices. The rate of appreciation of prices of gold in USD terms will far exceed that of Singapore dollar or even Indian Rupee.

    Gold is entering into a triangle from where the appreciation could be faster and in good magnitude. It seems to me that one may see gain of $70 to $100 in one day in USD terms. Gold prices may rise to over $1,800 per ounce by December – which is a conservative estimate. It may even overtake Platinum.

    Buy Palladium from Goldmoney. This metal, first recommended a few months ago at about $419, trading at $600, may see the price of over $2000 in less than 2 years. It is still trading at 50% below its peak a few years ago.

  154. Khalidasji,I feel it is best if you post your advice on agriculture (asked by Mr.Ashish and others) on this blog itself for the benefit of all.

    i am also keen on this subject
    Thanks in advance.Regards,
    R Mohan
    Chennai, India
    14.10.2010

  155. sir,
    please refer my post dt 14/10. I posted the brief details of my email sent to you in this site hoping you would reply. Unluckily for me your computer problem has done me in. I really see the rain clouds gathering and still waiting without your umbrella on my head.
    Actually, a few of the stocks that i sold at a loss are the ones i presumed werent worth holding and some on which i stood on profit i have sold off. but the clarification i seek is about scrips like HIND MOTOR, NOIDA TOLL, GMR INFRA, ALPS INDUSTRIES AND EMPEE DISTILLERY, IN THE ORDER OF SCRIPS MENTIONED,ON WHICH I STAND TO LOSE HEAVILY RANGE OF 2 LAC DOWN TO 50K respectively.
    I WOULD ATLEAST LIKE TO KNOW WHICH AMONGST THESE ARE THE ONES I COULD SHED AND WHICH I SHOULD HOLD. I HAVE BEEN HOLDING THEM FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS. PLS DO REPLY.
    thanks.

  156. Dear Sir,
    I have  1650@31.8 TataTele( CMP -24.4) . The stock has not moved up in the rally. I am planning to sell all and stay in cash. What price should I look for to sell. Will it move up to 28-29.
    Thanks,
    -Santosh, Bangalore, India.

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 15, 2010
    Of late it is showing some movement. Wait until their 3G roll out comes in next few days.

  157. Dear Sir,

    You have reinforced your sale call for 95% of the portfolio across the board, however to my query dated 11 October, you adviced to raise position at few counters.

    Little confused, whether you mean to sell off 95% and then re-enter with revised positions or just add more since my holdings are at decent price and not worth exiting at this stage.

    Regards,
    Navin
    Ghaziabad, India

    KALIDAS SAYS……..Friday, 15 Oct, 2010
    Where is the confusion? When I say SELL 95%, it says all. Balance 5% will be in specific stocks like Satyam.

    Make your query intelligble. When you say “…. then re-enter with revised positions or just add more since my holdings are at decent price and not worth exiting at this stage….” what does it mean? You entered at decent price (adjective) means what – at higher or lower prices? What was the price and how much you gain or lose. I do not understand a bit.

    You are not confused enough not to make specific query with proper numbers. We are in numbers game, so make all numbers specific.

  158. Guru,
    The NSE says FII were net buyers of 2102.95 Crores in NSE and BSE and DII sold -1354.81 Crores on 13th Oct, but you suspect MF and other institution buying.
    -Venkat,Chennai, India

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 14, 2010
    I could be wrong in interpreting the event. Let me study further and await my comments later.

  159. OMC’s entry point

    Dear Kalidasji,

    Can you suggest good entry levels into the OMC’s IOC,BPCL,HPCL,MRPL after correction.
    Should I exit my current positions in IOC and MRPL CMP Rs 81.65, as I am holding 1 future lot of each at Rs. 437 for IOC and Rs 81.50 for MRPL. I also hold 200 shares of IOC in cash bought at Rs 389, CMP Rs 415
    Should i sell these off, and wait for correction to buy into cash market.Need your inputs
    Also please suggest the priority in which these stocks should be bought.
    I bought these October end lots , as I was expecting the results to come by mid of october, but looks like the dates have not yet been announced for these scripts.

    Thanks

    Rahul Bondre
    Mumbai India
    14th Oct 2010

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 15, 2010
    Why do you always ask me for future or options trades? I am not good at it. so never advise anyone. Come to me only for real cash based equity investment.

    When I expect 300% or more return on OMC in 3 years, I do not care about the present entry level. There are no specific target level to enter. If my target price is say Rs 2000 for IOC, what makes difference to me whether I paid 410 or 440?

  160. ANNOUNCEMENT

    for the last two days, my internet connection is not working. I am using my Brother’s computer to reply after a delay. Until my connection is restores, do not expect prompt reply.

     

    Anil Selarka (Kalidas)

  161. Sir,

    Your analysis on silver is proving true. It has an outstanding increase of from 18 USD per ounce to 23.5 USD/ounce in last 2 months (August to October). This is already a jump of 31%. This is outstanding by any length.

    Thank you for this great insight and wonderful returns.

    Regards,
    Prakash
    Rotterdam, The Netherlands

  162. Respected Kalidas Ji

    If time permits please advice us the way to long term wealth creation. 
    What should be the right allocation in Bonds, Equity, and Commodity (Metal, Agro, and Bullion) Real Estate etc?
    What we should keep in our mind before allocating in these asset classes.
    Kindly guide, keeping in mind that I can invest in India only or can invest outside by investing in offshore mutual fund of funds.

    With Regards

    Renu Khanna
    New Delhi, India

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 14, 2010
    I never follow such mathematical models. However, simply put, keep 20% in bank deposits, 10% in bonds (if you are an expert in bonds), 10% in precious metals, 30% in equity, 15% in commodities (if you can understand the high risk trades). Real estate is something different which you can invest separately. Take out your investment budget, deduct the real estate investment (your margin portion only) and treat the balance amount to be allocated amongst above asset class.

    Please note that the above allocation is dynamic. When some asset class becomes a bargain, then increase the allocation by selling out others more expensive to hold.

    I never invest in MF or ULIP.

  163. Dear Sir ,
    What are  your comments on  the  proposed Pre-market session to be introduced from 18th OCT  and its impact on the market .  Your views pls .
     
    thanks & best regards
    Sajith , chennai 14-10- 2010

    NO VIEW.

  164. dear sir,
    1.what is your opinion about the ensuing Housing crisis in Australia and canada?
    2.Do you still believe AUD and CAD will rise inspite of these problems?
    3.33% of Hangseng is in Real estate stocks-are you still bullish on HKD?
    4.Can you suggest any place in Bangalore other than bangalore refinery , someone who has a better spread
    Thanx
    maddy
    Bangalore 14/10/2010

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 14, 2010
    1. Such issues are not important for the readers of this blog. It could be more of a discussion which is not relevant to Indian investors.
    2. Yes, I am. AUD still has 8% more to go strong.
    3. Yes, I am, not because of real estate exposure of the banks or the stocks. It is because Chinese Yuan may get stronger again that may force policy re-think on USD pag to HKD. In my opinion, holding HKD is the biggest and safest gamble with low downside risk and high upside reward
    4. Such procedural issues are better left to the readers. I would let the readers do the homework. I may not know about Bangalore while sitting in Hong Kong or USA

  165. Hi Kalidas

    While i agree with your view that markets will crash – it will happen only in the medium term because in the short term with so much liquidity sloshing in the system and FED embarking on QE2 too much money will be chasing too few stocks and asset classes.

    Therefore markets will only head higher and higher in the medium term into 2011 as bernanke runs the printing presses open.

    Apologies for disagreeing with you. 

    princeofindia
    abu dhabi

    KALIDAS SAYS
    No apolocy is needed. Stay with the market.

  166. BALTIC DRY INDEX
    Dear Kalidas, After a very long time I am writing here, Could you please enlighten the relationship between the Baltic Dry Index and Stock Markets.

    Thanks,
    Viki
    Bangalore, India.

    NO RELATIONSHIP

  167. sir, on not hearing from you,SINCE MY LAST EMAIL DT 17TH SEPTEMBER, without waiting any further i have done the following trades keeping in view your recommendations…

    SCRIP NAME        QTY           PUR PR.      SALE PR.  CMP

    CYBERMATE        6000           8.60           2.07       2.06

    GODREJ IND          800        180.00      225.00     230

    TRANSPORT CORP 400          80.00      148.00     156

    SAINT GOBAIN       1000        22.00       31.00      30.5

    AGRO DUTCH IND    600        39.00       30.00      30.6

    HIND ORG CHEM   1000         49.00      42.00       46

    LAXMI ELEC(lecs)    150       400.00     290.00     358

    godrej properties    100       725.00     754.00     765 

    nelco                    600        113.00     122.00      122. 

    (substituted with)

    EVINIX               4000          2.90              —        3.00            
    IOC                      300           425          —          418
    MRPL                    500           80.5         —            82.
    satyam comp.       1300          91.00      —            86 
    balance amt holding incash.(app3.25L)

    out of my list of 30 scrips i have not touched the likes of HInd motor and noida toll, gmr infra, datamatics global and empee distilleries etc.(PLS refer my email), about which i specifically need to hear from you before selling as i stand to incur huge loss on the first two scrips. Hope you will care to look into my email and give me the necessary advise lest i be too late to catch the bus.
    I have already made mince meat of my finances for quite a while.
    atleast this time let me not be let to making further mistakes and thats why i seek your advise as i have my convictions about you.
    pls help and do send an early reply to my email already sent twice.
    regards
                        

  168. Your advice on agriculture queries
    Anilji,
    I feel it is best if you post your advice on agriculture (asked by Mr.Ashish and others) on this blog itself for the benefit of all. I guess there will be many people interested in your view point much like myself. Thanks in advance.
    Regards,
    Prashant,
    Bangalore. 13/10/2010.

  169. Hi Kalidasji,
    My cisco esop lot expiring on Jan-7-2011. stock is up 3.4% today at 23.35.  It`s still $1.5 below the point from where it fell 10% after the `cautious optimism` expressed by ceo during last qtr results.
    Other day Cramer was vouching for this stock on NBC. Elections dates are coming close and results season too. And you have asked to sell Nifty stocks. Please give your opinion, atleast a general view. Sell this csco lot now before any major correction sets in or wait for year end rally?
    Regards,
    Aby Philip
    Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 14, 2010
    Not able to guide you on CISCO because I am not following technical stocks much. Cramer is an extremist analyst whose views are often questionable.

  170. Dear Sir,
    Why is the market going up without any substantial reason? From last 2 weeks, for two days markets fall and 3 days rise with no important reasons, why? It would be very educative for us if you give your analysis.
    Best Regards
    Shaan
    Bangalore

    KALIDAS SAYS
    Already replied to other readers. The reason for yesterday’s rally is issue of “COAL INDIA” IPO which was likely to fail if the IIP fugures continued to force the index down. GOI intervened through state sponsored or affiliated mutual funds to support the market with massive force so that Coal really did not become more blacker than it already is.
     

  171. Hello
    In several replies Kalidash ji already gave a cutting date of 18th Oct. My feeling is that the bull run will continue until 18th after that the real dance will start. We should be extremely careful during Nov. 1 and 23. Perhaps we will have better opportunities around the end of Nov.
    Best wishes
    Sudhir

  172. 3 YEARS OF ASSOCIATION WITH KALIDAS
    Dear Kalidas
    Today i am completing 3 years of my association with you. i read your first message on IFCI message board on 13/10/2007. since than kalidas has become a part of my life. everyday without fail i login to your website and read your messages. even if you are not in town i still login into your website. it has become a habbit..to be precise KALIDAS is a ADDICTION.
    i am 33 now. i am a medical guy but developed interest in economics/stock markets just because of one word KALIDAS. Today i spend about 5-7 hrs visiting all financial sites/blogs every day reading on global economy/stocks/currency/commodities /bonds markets. 3 years back i didnt know stock markets basics.
    My sincere thanks to you for teaching me basics which made my learning effort very easy.
    Though i made decent money from your recommendations Unfortunately to day at 60% capital loss. Most probably i may be the only follower of kalidas who is in loss even after following him for 3 years. The only segment which i have not learned from you is F&O which costed me 23 lakhs loss.
    I am short 500 qty NIFTY from last may when nifty was@3500. i have invested 35Lakhs in last five years in equities and lost about 22 lakhs. all in NIFTY SHORT positions and derivatives. now i am left with 13lakhs capital with following positions.
    NIFTY 500SHORT@3500. Sold all equity last 2 days as per your sell call.
    I HAVE BEEN WAITING  FOR LAST 18 MONTHS FOR A CORRECTION TO COVER MY SHORT POSITION.
    I KNOW F&O IS A GAMBLE STILL I AM CONTINUING WITH MY SHORT  POSITION TO COVER ATLEAST 5-6 LAKHS AND GET OUT  of F&O PERMANATLY.
    After yesterdays disappointing IIP data i shorted nifty heavily anticipating a fall. markets are 2.5% up today without any positive news. Looks like there is no end to this rally.
    after 18months of long waiting I am losing(sorry lost) patience. i am left with 2 options. either cover all short position and start fresh equity investments with 12 lakhs capital or wait for a correction and recover some losses and get out of F&O permanently.
    Request your advice.
    regards,msn,Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 14, 2010
    Short NIFTY again. You are a great gambler. Never deal in futures trade without stop loss point. These are technical trading for which you ought to have technical knowledge. I do not deal in technical issues, so never invest or speculate in futures and options.

    Even if you short again (in a rally only such as one of 500 points),do not follow the rule on averages. If second lot makes good money, just sell it and book the profit.

  173. Coal India IPO
    Kalidasji,
    Coal India IPO is set to open on 18th October with a price band of 225-245. Its expected to list on 4th November. Even post IPO the government holding will be close to 90%.
    In such a case do you recommend us to subscribe to the issue?
    Some analysts have recommended to subscribe to the issue
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ipo-issues-open/coal-indiaattractive-issue-gupta-equities_491047.html
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ipo-issues-open/subscribe-to-coal-india-targetrs-325sh-motilal-oswal_490946.html
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ipo-issues-open/whattulsians-favourite-ipos_490896.html
    Regards,
    Atul
    Singapore
    13-Oct-10

    Kalidas Says..
    Why do you ask this question when I have asked everyone to sell 95% of their holding?

    There is lot of hype in Coal India issue. Yesterday’s massive rise in SENSEX after poor numbers a day before (IIP Index down drastically) was mainly due to Government’s directive to its sponsored mutual funds such as Axis Bank, ICICI Bank (beneificiary of government aid) and others such as IDFC and IDBI.

    In other words, the GOI is imitating US government in promoting stock markets against all fundamentals. It definitely looks to me that there is poor response from large investors for Coal India issue. The government jacked up the price of key index stocks (other small/mid cap did not participate as much in rally) to boost the SENSEX so that Coal India IPO does not fail.

    You might seel lot of selling in Coal India issue when it opens (it may open higher but then steadily decline). The issue is so large that there will not be new investors to buy the stock.

    Although it is a good company with good secondary fundamentals (Gas and Oil have priority over coal), the fact of the matter is that we are entering second stage of recession soon which flatten the markets worldwide.

    Just get out of the market and do not look at Coal India IPO unless you are an IPO player who want to make quick sandwich money by selling on the opening day.

  174. Kalidas,

    With so much of money into circulation people are buying all things money can buy – Commodities, metals, Stocks, Emerging Market Stocks , etc jacking up their prices.

    Now with Fed again getting ready to pump in more money dont you expect a rise in all assets – including Indian Stocks.

    Deekay,
    13th October 2010
    New Delhi

    KALIDAS SAYS
    Looks like you need confirmation from me to enter the stocks or double up the position. My views are well known – when I gave call to SELL 95% of STOCKS from 7/10 to 15/10 – these dates were mentioned almost a month back and they turned out to be remarkably close to truth.

    When you are out of the market, sit down, Watch ROBOT or DABANG, and sleep well when most other investors will have sleepless nights.

  175. Now what ?
    Sir,
    I really appreciate and respect your views. I had sold off stocks during your earlier sell call on MMB which prevented in erosion of capital. This time also i started selling off from Monday onwards. I have sold off 100% of my portfolio today. But the market is still rising  sensex rose almost 500 points today. I dont regret selling my portfolio even if the sensex goes to 25k. I believe in destiny. If I earn profit, it was destined to be mine. If I lose money, it was never mine in the first place due to whatever reason. Kindly advise now what should I do with the liquid cash I have around Rs 5 lakhs.
     
    Sanman Kelkar
    Goregaon(Mumbai)
    India
    Date of Posting 13th October 2010 4:13 p.m. IST

    KALIDAS SAYS
    Stay with it. You did a good thing by selling out your portfolio and other comments are fine and good for other readers too.

  176. Dear Anil,

    Markets are flying- 500 points in one day and that too effortlessly. Is there another bout of couple  of 500 points in ensuing days? Don’t you feel that FIIs are playing havoc with Indian markets and Indian political leaders are supporting them by continuously feeding the media about too rosy picture of Indian economy, GDP nos etc. Even when IIP nos are down, FM comes out with promising statements like Indian economic growth is robust, etc.etc. Is it not a dangerous sign that Indian investors will be duped particularly when there is no new crop of Investors and players are the same those who have burnt their figures badly in 2007-08?

    Rajesh
    New Delhi, India
    13th October 2010,

    KALIDAS SAYS
    FII did not buy that much. Most of buying is suspected to be from Government sponsored Mutual Funds such as Axis Bank (formerly UTI Bank and its Funds divisions), ICICI Bank (under direct obligation to help Government to retain favor), IDFC, IDBI Bank and others. No retail investor is going to buy blindly giving 500 point rise.

    Government tried to support the market, imitating USA, to support its Coal India IPO where more than Rs 15,000 crores are at stake. The issue was doomed for failure after poor IIP numbers that sent FM and RBI scurrying into promoting markets.

    Most investors are dumbs, They like to be steamrolled in market crash. In stock markets, only 1.5 out of 100 make really good money. Unless you are surrounded by fools, you can not make money.

  177. Dear Kalidas Sir,
    I am really getting confused now.
    Markets ignored poor manufacturing numbers as well.
    Infact analysts like Karvy and IF LS predicting of 6700 – 6800 nifty , and market wont go down even to 6K levels in near term till CIL IPO hits market..  Links below
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/nifty-won39t-go-below-6k-until-cil-ipo-gets-over-karvy_490900.html
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/nifty-may-test-6700-6800-by-dec-end-ilfs_490917.html
    Please suggest the direction from here on, today market is up close to 500 points . Anticipating correction I sold off entire holding 2 days back.
    Without any fundamentals why Indian market is running now ? what is the big game behind this.
    Regards,
    $amir, Mumbai 10/13/2010

    KALIDAS SAYS
    Why do you ask same question again and again. It looks like that you want to stay in the market, so stay. I do not care what Karvy consultants say…I double up my call – SELL 95% of YOUR STOCKS NOW. That’s it.

  178. Respected Sir

    Do you have any precedent for this type of scenario where Govt worldwide is protecting markets in this manner? 

    What implication we may see if this type of scenario (ample liquidity) prevailing for more months. 

    I am very scare to see the kind of volatility/bias/blind scenario. And not able to find a Single Asset class which can not be manipulated.

    Please guide.

    With Regards

    Renu Khanna
    New Delhi, India 

  179. Dear Sir,
    Today I purchased 1000 GSPL @ 119 and Petronet @ 119/-.
    I wanted to know your view on both the stock for 2-3 years of investment time frame.
    Can this two shares give return like OMC in 3 years time.

    Regards
    Sakchi, Delhi, India.

    KALIDAS SAYS
    Stupid you are. I already asked everyone to sell both above stocks at around 112 ro 120 and you are asking me to affirm your decision to buy those stocks? Further, I have informed all readers to sell 95% of stock holding betwen 7/10 to 15/10. So where is the question of these stocks being held by you on 2 or 3 years time frame?

    Although these were my preferred stocks and the sector, I still believe that OMC will far outperform any stock in the market. OMC are OMC and their quality can not be equated with the Petronet or GSPL

  180. Dear Sir,
    You have said that “when the interest rates start rising, Dow will begin to fall, and housing prices will climb. This is going to happen. So watch the Interest rates.”
    However, FED have tendency to continue to print more money. What is you view about this policy ?
    And do you think Dollar will keep losing value compare with other currency ?
    Thanks for your wisdom.
    Tung BS,
    Seoul, South Korea.

  181. Sir
    Please include me also in the mailing list  of  your response to   Mr Ashish Dandekar and Mr Dongre as I too am interested in agricultural /farming opportunities.  I want to be in touch with them to learn more about the real time challenges as I too have similar plans but never getting fullfilled :-).
    Shiva
    Bangalore India.

  182. IFCI,

    I have 1000 @ 55, CMP:75, Do you think there is more uptrend in this stock ?

    Regards
    Nipi
    Washington DC
    USA

  183. Spicejet

    Forgot to append city details.

    Thanks
    sss
    Bangalore
    India

  184. Spicejet

    http://www.livemint.com/2010/10/12152057/Maran-raises-stake-in-SpiceJet.html

    Maran raises stake in SpiceJet. Open offer expected by Oct end. 

    I am holding 2000 at Rs 36. Should we sell this after results as suggested by you  or hold ?

    Thanks
    SSS

    KALIDAS SAYS
    I have mentioned before. SELL at 92 or about. The day is approaching very fast. Do NOT glue to that target. 5% up or down, sell it then. It is the money that comes to your pocket that counts.

  185. @Sanjay,

    Dear Mr Sanjay,

    If you think that Kalidasji is misguiding the readers of this blog why dont you write your own blog and we will be happy to be guided properly by you.

    If you have nothing good to say it’s better not to say anything.

    In any case I am following this blog for last 3 years and I am convinced that Kalidasji is not misguiding his readers. On the contrary his contribution to “we readers” is immense. I am sure 99.99% (keeping readers like you and king porus in remaining 0.01%) of the readers of this blog will agree with me.

    Regards,
    Sarvottam Kumar
    Mumbai, India

  186. Birla Power Solutions Limited CMP: 1.85
     
    Dear Sir,
     
    I have bought BPSL 2000 shares on April 2010 @ 3.50 per share.
     
    I can wait (how long it may be) till the company reaches my purchase price. What is your view about this company? When the downside will end for it?
     
    Sometime back you have replied that you will study about the company and reply for me.
     
    Waiting for your valuable reply.
     
    Regards
    R.Subha
    Chennai, India.
     
     

  187. Dear Sir,
    I started investing in market in the year 2004. In 2006 i learnt FnO and started trading. Till now i lost all my profits and 3L from my pocket. I realized lately that FnO means “There won’t be any OPTIONS left to win the FUTURE”. I’ll consider it as a costly training and forget it.
    Now, I am left with 1.5L cash and from this month onwards i will also have extra 15K cash to inject into the market. Please please please advise me where to invest.
    According to the blog, currently you are advising to buy Ruchi Infra,  Satyam, MRPL and IOC? shall i go ahead and buy these stocks? now? or if not now when?
     
    Best Regards
    Sharan
    Bangalore
    India

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    Since you lose heavily, I do not want you to take extra ordinary risk at the moment. Almost all four stocks mentioned by you have very good potential to make immense money in less than 3 years.

    However, the market being at correction stage, and considering the weakening of rupee (which suggest that FII are selling rupee and buying dollar in advance and then physically sell the stocks to cover the rupee shorted in future markets), it does look to me that the market may lose about 1000 points in less than 15 days.

    Wait until the market reaches 18,800 and focus on the following stocks

    IOC (watch its result and if it is good, buy some whatever be the price)
    HPCL (another beauty)
    BPCL or MRPL (chose either of them)
    Ruchi Infrastructure (Buy in correction – about 1500 shrs @ 31~33
    Zee News
    NOCIL (now IOC has become major investor)

    Price level may depend on the level of correction in the market and individual stocks. Refer back to me when the market corrects.

  188. Dear Sir,
    Kouton Retail CMP 118 (book value 164) has lost > 70% in few weeks due to cash flow issues. rumours are management has pledge 90%+ stocks. Please let us know if it is fine to have very small position in it.
     
    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    I never go to retail stocks. Go to any retail chain, and hundreds of rags type clothings are heaped up. No one knows the real value of inventories. It applies to Wal Mart too where there are more goods return counters than sale counters.

    India is still not ripe enough to have retail foray in malls and high class shopping centers. Even millionaire’s cars are waiting in Byculla Vegetable market to buy the daily necessitities cheaper. Indian consumers, especially in middle cast except South Indian community, are not attuned to buy branded goods from malls when they can have same goods about 10% to 15% cheaper from local shops with free delivery. In malls, they greet you with not as Mr. but as Chor. You have to put aside almost all your shopping bags in the luggage counters or you are tagged with large plastic labels (in Big Bazaar) in the hope to stop shop thefts. What is the use of visiting those places where they devalued your status to that of a “thief”

    At least at your own locale, the shop keeper respects you and sends you the stuff in advance and bill you later. This is main reason for the shopping malls to fail.

    Look at the failures of Reliance Retail, Vishal retails and one you just referred to. When these companies do not know how to do business on retail front, why should you trust them with your money when they are not prepared to trust you when you visit them?

  189. Anilji
    I have a question regarding earnings.
    Maybe basic one coz i am a still a novice in understanding
    the finance stuff.
    Let us take for example ruchinfra
    Net profit for the quarter ended June 2010 is 6.68 cr.
    April2010-June 2010 = 6.68 cr.
    Lets assume for next 3 quarters it gives the following results.
    July-Sep 2010 = 10 cr.
    oct 2010-Dec 2010= 10 cr.
    Jan2010-March 2010 = 10 cr
    So total profit is 36.68 cr. Total number of shares is 20 crs.
    so EPS is 36.68/20 = 1.834.
    So price will be 1.834 * PE . Lets say is PE for this sector is 25.
    price will be 45. Did I arrive at the proper price for the end of the
    year mar 2010. Correct me if i went wrong in predicting the future price
    of this stock.
    Thanks
    Sunil
    Bangalore India

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    Wrong approach. You are using past peformance to arrive at future. When the stock is in development stage, past performance is poor due to higher development cost. This company is developing infrastructure in port area, one of the fastest growing segment. With more and more refineries being set up in coastal area, the demand for company’s storage facilities will be very high. It is not so easy to build storage facilities. You have to anticipate the growth, arrive at probable earnings 2 years ahead having regard to growth in the sector and then work out the picture.
     
     

  190. Dear Kalidas Sir,

    I did some analysis of the state owned refineries for their FY09-10 revenues vs Outstandding shares assuming that in the decontrolled regime mostly the revenue (sales) of these companies will determined their profitability. Taking IOC as the benchmark the ideal proportion that I get of their expected market prices are tabulated in the 5th column i.e. IOC:BP:HP:MRPL :: 1:1.57:1.48:0.08. This tells me that vis-a-vis IOC, HPCL is currently underpriced, BPCL is overpriced and MRPL is extremely overpriced. MRPL’s CMP should have been 35 if IOC trades at 417. This probably explains why MRPL stands at the same prices as it was 3 months back whereas in last 3 months IOC has appreciated from Rs 373 to Rs 417, HPCL from Rs 436 to Rs 512, BPCL from Rs 632 to Rs 742.

    I think with everything remaining equal the proportion 1:1.57:1.48:0.08 will get established over the long term 2-3 years. Appreciate your insight into this and let me know If I am wrong in my analysis coz If I am right, I would like to load HP more than any other SORs and would skip MRPL for the time being

    Revenue (Cr)
    Shares (Cr)
    Revenue/Share
    Proportion
    Ideal Price
    Actual Price

    IOC
    269136
    125
    2153.088
    1.000
    417
    417

    BP
    122359
    36
    3398.861111
    1.579
    658.2755017
    742

    HP
    108497
    34
    3191.088235
    1.482
    618.0350242
    512

    MRPL
    32302
    175
    184.5828571
    0.086
    35.74914329
    81

    Please see the attached spreadsheet.

    Thanks and Regards

    NSri, Pune
    India

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    Not able to see your attached spreadsheet. The descrition as above format does not lead me anywhere.

    Even MRPL has risen from 73~75 to 82 level. MRPL is the only refinery that is fed directly by its parent – ONGC for its feedstock.

    I have made it very clear in my SOE Refiners’ article that those who have larger sales will benefit more. IOC leads the pack followed by BPCL, HPCL and MRPL. All above stocks are suggested – they are more like self created Mutual Fund of OMC.

    I do not do microfinance analysis. It is enough if my macro analysis hold good. Macro analysis need common sense, whereas micro finance analysis need intelligence that I do not have. People invest where it is easy for them to recognize the earnings. Microfinance analysisi is meant for funds or Mutual/Pension funds who never read my blog.

  191. Kalidas ,
    Can you stop mis-guiding the readers on MTM rule. There is no news nowhere about MTM being effective august-2010.
    Even in January you predicted market will fall because of bad earnings from US banks , the markets fell in january but not because of bad results from US banks.
    The markets will fall in october because they have reached a top and hence a correction is expected.

    Regards.,
    Sanjay
    Hyderabad, India

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    You are entitled to your views. If you believe that I am misuiding, only because you do not read much except what you want to, do not follow this blog.

  192. Dear Kalidas Ji,
     
    Shall appreciate your valued advice on the following holdings:-
    SPICE JET 2000 @ 60/50  CMP  76-
    K View what is 60/50? Sell above 88~92

    UCO BANK   600 @ 80/-    CMP 122-
    K View SELL all

    SATYAM      700 @ 100/45CMP 86/30
    K View Buy 300 more

    Should I buy more,if so,when and how much.Can Invest another2.5 lacs for next 1 year horizon.
    Best Regards
    M.A.Vohra
    Kanpur-India

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    Read as above.,
     
     

  193. Kalidas ji,
     
    I have sold most of my holdings except SORs, BIRYAM (already in red) & EVINIX (already in red).
    I have ZEENEWS 3500@14.5 CMP is 16.20. Does your sell call apply to ZEENEWS as well or can I hold until the Q2 results are out?
     
    Regards,
    KeeYes
    Tokyo
    Japan

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    Yes, it does. Reduce position by 2500 shares at least. You still have enough time to ride the rally because the stock has not moved up much. There is relatively less downside, but there is nevertheless.

  194. MRPL
    Kalidasji,
    MRPL is currently just a refiner. It has license to open 500 retail outlets but currently has only 3 in operation.
    In view of the above, how will it still be a beneficiary of the fuel price de-regulation?
    Regards,
    Atul
    Singapore
    12-Oct-10

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    All refineries sell wholesale, not in retail. Even MRPL, 87% subsidiary of ONGC, sells its products to OMC and other private refiners where the demand exceeds the supply from local refineries.

    If they open retail outlets, it merely enlarges their margin but the cost far exceeds the additional income. It is more of raising public profile than anything else.

  195. Hello Kalidas Sir,
    I have gone through your analysis on State Owned Refinaries and numerous recommendations on IOC, HPCL, BPCL and MRCL since more than a month. Undoubtedly, I am convinced to invest 30-50% of my capital in SORs. However, I do have the following questions before investing.
    1) Is it better to invest in SORs before the results are announced or to wait till the results are out? I would assume that last quarter results will be better than those of previous quarters because of rise in oil prices.
    2) My only concern on this sector is the fluctuations in crude oil prices. Crude was trading at $150.bbl earlier which was dropped to $75 recently. SORs may not be pleased when crude prices come down which will enforce them not to rise the oil prices, thus limiting their profits.
    3) What will be the effect of hopeful market correction on this sector irrespective of whether results meet analysts’ expectations? Can these refineries crawl up against the falling market when the results are extremely good?
    The whole point is whether to BUY them before/after the results are out or to split the investment before and after the results.
     
    Thanks,
    Amar Allampati, Atlanta (11th Oct 2010).

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    Do not invest over 30% of total investment budget in SOE refiners even if they are very attractive. That is called diversifiction. Anything more than that will be a gamble. You can raise the position if the quarterly numbers bear out what we expected in our article.

    1. Since you have waited so long, wait for another 10 days and see where the SOE refiners stand in their profitability.
    2. Refiners make more money when the oil prices go down. Oil Producers make more money when the oil prices go up.
    3. Market is the biggest enemy or friend of any stock under all circumstances. If the market cracks, even OMC stocks could also falter initially but serious buyers might jump in after fall in 2 or 3 sessions. They will fall less than the other market indices stocks.

  196. The long wait… still awaiting your reply sir! I had despatched my email to you a second time to ease you the tourble of retrieving the mail that you mentioned you couldnt retrieve due to computer problem.. shall send again if my mail has not been traced. thanks.

  197. Dear Anil,

    I am really excited to have your views on Satyam with a 12-18 months’ projection. I am having 50000 PNB Gilts. It’s present price is Rs.41. Can I swap it with 25000 Satyam at CMP of Rs.85. Will it be a good deal or do you recommend anything else?

    Rajesh
    Delhi
    India
    11th October 2010

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    When you want to invest large sum, always do so with full knowledge of what the company does and about to do. It will too risky to invest very large sum before even quarterly numbers are out. Yes, small position is okay which may be supplemented once the quarterly results are out and merger progresses with full disclosures.

  198. “In India even waste newspapers can be sold for money or for exchange into utensils. Do you think that you can not sell silver at that time?”
    :D :D
    best reply of this month!..utterly funny!
    regards
    Raghav
    Bangalore

  199. Guru,
    This guy has been screaming about food crisis for quite some time that would spark the next crisis and now even you have confirmed that
    http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html
    – Venkat, Chennai, India

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    There are many screamers. Further, he focusses on Saybean which is not eaten by humans in large quantity. How many shops in India sell Soybean products? Animals are the biggest users.

  200. Hello Mr. Anil,
    I would appreciate if you can please forecast Rs/US$ for the next 3 months – towards 40 or 50?
    Thanks,
    Anup Maheshwari
    New Jersey, USA, 11 Oct 2010

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    It will stay near where it is now. RBI already informed that it will intervene if the exchange rates remain volatile (that is if Rupee goes higher). There is no firm policy statement supporting firmer rupee. The present firmness is due to dollar weakness rather than rupee strength.

  201. Dear Sir ,

    1) For the upcoming crash that you are expecting , can you tell us the percentage of crash you are expecting (with reference to cmp of sensex/nifty as the base ) and when do you think the crash will end (date/month).  I know it’s difficult to predict exactly but please let us know your views on this so that we can enter the market again.

    2) Will the bank profits of AXIS / SBI / ICICI take a hit in the september quarter earnings report.

    3) Please give some details of the MTM rule being effective august 2010.

    4) Will the foreign funds/FII’s allow the indian market to crash before they take out their profits or year end bonuses :-)

    Thanks.,
    Jagadish
    Bangalore , India

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    1. When a speeding car crashes, how many persons would be hurt or killed – is there any exact science to tell you that? If the hurt passenger is admitted in hospital in serious condition, is there any exact science to tell you when he will be out of ICU? Stock market crash will also have similar pattern.
    2. Yes, I do expect bank profits in general to take tumble due to higher interest rates that hurt the bond prices (banks usually invest or obligated to invest into RBI Bonds as part of their liquidity reserve. It all depends whether the banks will use Mark to Market valuations or HTM valuations (Hold till Maturity). MTM rule has become effective from 1st August, but it remains to be seen whether the Auditors adopt such practice in quarterly numbers or wait until year end.
    3. What details do you need for MTM rules? Google your search.
    4. All respond to the market, they do not dictate the trend. There is no question whether Part A or B will allow the market to fall or not. The government always act if the crisis continues by prompting UTI and IDBI to buy stocks in support of the market,. But it is later phenomenon.

  202. Dear Anilji,

    Thxs for your answer . You are saying

    “hold as much potential as Rand.” 
     
    I dont have zar as of now . But can manage to give INR to my friend and he will give me ZAR. Today Zar is 6.45 to INR. So suppose i buy 15k Zar , do you mean to say i will benefit and will get more INR ifi sell that 15k Zar (after how much period).

    Also it is often noticed that when USD to Zar is down, Zar to rupee goes high. So do you see Zar coming to 6 level to USD .

    Regds
    Sameer
    Pune

    Sameer
    11 Oct 10 at 5:15 PM

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 12, 2010
    I did reply a day before but it disappeared somehow. I will reply it again later today. Watch this space.

  203. Anilji
    If the swap ration of techm:Satyam is unfair and if it is 1:9 then
    will we see drastic fall temporarily to  around 70 levels?
    Thanks
    Sunil
    Bangalore India

    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    i do not want to speculate. Whatever may be the swap ratio, the situation at current prices is going to work in favour of investor over 12 months period basis, yielding at least 150% return.

  204. if i buy ten 100gms physical silver bar from bangalore refinery
    (costs around 37000 rupees).Then when it comes to near 90000
    if i go and sell in any jewelley shop will they buy and give
    me money.

    satheesh,
    chennai,India
    11-10-2010.

    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    In India even waste newspapers can be sold for money or for exchange into utensils. Do you think that you can not sell silver at that time?

    All sellers of precious metals quote two way prices – Buy and Sell. Wherever you want to buy, ask them their bid prices now. You will know what is their spread or margin.

  205. Kalidasji,

    Mohit Satyanand says,

    Interest rates offered to Indian households for fixed deposits in our banks are below the rate of inflation, and hence negative in ‘real’ terms. This helps makes real estate seem a much more rewarding ‘investment’. This is a speculative attitude that needs more of the same to keep it going, which is one definition of a bubble. The interest rates on savings deposits, meanwhile, stand at 3.5% p.a. With inflation running at 8% p.a., this means the ordinary account holder really loses 4.5% to the bank every year!
    This rate is set by the Reserve Bank of India, a wonderful example of a cartel blessed by a regulator to fleece the small saver. To be fair, the RBI has started making noises about freeing the interest rate. In response, all the head honchos of our banks rushed to the RBI to plead – “Save us from each other”. The RBI has kicked the can down the road, meaning that it has set up a committee to study the matter.

    __http://in.news.yahoo.com/columnist/mohit_satyanand/12/liquidity-could-wash-out-indias-stability

    Why do they (Banks) afraid of Interest Rate Deregulation?  It is the Ordinary Indian should worry about that right.

    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India.

  206. Dear Sir,

    What is your take on USD to Zar which is at lowest levels today.
    1usd = 6.81 Zar.They say zar is one of the most volatile currency.
    Will Zar strenghten to 6 level against USD .

    You have advice raj to buy Aud/Zar.
    If we have NRE a/c in India can we buy these currencies in India.

    Regds
    Sameer

    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    If you want to trade currencies easily with minimum spread, open an account with European Bank – SAXO Bank (www.saxobank.com).

    It is difficult to buy South African Rand in India because there is no South African bank over here. The banks like HSBC, Duetche and Citi an still buy for you but their spread is often 10% between buying and selling.

    If you are in India, better focus on Australian Dollar which is better in liquidity for you and hold as much potential as Rand. The cheapest one to go for is Russian Rouble but it is difficult to buy.

  207. Kalidasji,

     IOC Sept qtr PAT seen up by 1725.6% at Rs 5192cr: MOST, Motilal Oswal says..  Does it meet Your expectations?
    __http://indiaearnings.moneycontrol.com/sub_india/compnews.php?autono=490037

    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India
    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    I care about the real quarterly result of IOC – not what Motilal Oswal says. He is also an analyst like me. I gave reasons in my article on SOE refiners, MOSWAL did not give any reasons or back up statements.

    Why then speculate? Let us await the actual outcome which may be days away.

  208. Dear Sir,

    It is first time that I am posting my query on your blog, though I have been following your website for last one year and acting silently on your advice. I have the following positions, mostly from your recommendations. I just need your advice whether should I hold them or exit to re-enter as broadly advised by you. Financials and Petronet I’d exited earlier with a view to re-enter. I am with little cash with me approx. 1 lac only at the moment apart from 100gm physical gold and 2k silver. Also, have around 1 lac in MF that I would sell this week.

    Script        Qty     Avg. Price   CMP
    —————————————
    RNRL        2300   54             40.75
    K View Buy 700 more at CMP
    Spicejet     500    53             77
    K View Hold until 2QSep10 is out.
    TTML        2500   26.75        23
    K View Swap to Ruchi Infra
    Ruchi Inf   500    34.61         35.30
    K View Hold and enjoy the ride
    MTNL        250    63.50         66  
    K View Hold for long term – 3 years at least   
    IOC          120    401            418
    K View hold until 2QSep10 is out. Still best buy in the market
    HPCL        80      440            511
    K View Buy 120 more at CMP
    Cairn        50      310            342  
    K View Buy more upto 410
    Satyam     700    93              85
    K View Buy 300 more at CMP
    Evinix       5000   3.63           3.00
    K View Buy 10000 more at CMP due to heavy price difference.
    UTIGold    50      1465          1914
    K View Hold for a strong rally. Sell when near about 3600, not before.

    I appreciate you have little time to do portfolio advising, however just one liners which ones to hold, exit and reenter and exit completely would be of great help.

    Thanking you
    Regards,
    Navin Dixit
    Ghaziabad
    India 

    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    reply as above under each stock.

  209. Dear Sir,

    I have been following you for quite sometime now and am really impressed by your knowledge and your willingness to share it with all of us.

    My father is a recently retired central government employee who is about to receive substantial sum of money (about thirty lakhs) in terms of benefits. He has asked me to find out ways for him to invest the money. He has no immediate obligations except for a long term loan of 10 lakhs.

    My questions to you would be:

    1. How much percentage of the above said sum should he be investing in stocks, if at all?
    2. Can he be recommended to invest in gold, if so, upto how much percentage?

    Thanks and Regards,
    Vikram
    Bangalore
    India

    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    You have to spend his retirement money very conservatively. Let the crash come when you can go for some real high quality investment in equity. right now, do not flirt with the stocks – retain funds in Bank deposits of high quality banks (your father will get 0.50% higher return as senior citizen).

    Buy the stocks like IOC (Indian Oil Corporation), Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), MRPL (Mangalkore refinery), ONGC and Oil India. They offer the best protection to retirement money. DO NOT buy any of ULIP or insurance linked products.

    Yes, you can still go for gold. it is still good to invest in gold and silver.

  210. Hello Sir,
    The week has arrived for which you have given the sale call.
    I would request you to answer my specific portfolio query.
    I have sold UCO BANK, PETRONET and SPICEJET over last 2 months and I am now 70% in cash. The other 30% is invested in IOC + HPCL (15%) and SATYAM (15%).
    Should I sell SATYAM (average buy price 81) in part or in full and switch to GOLD or should I get in cash. I want to hold SOE for long term.
    Thanks very much in advance,
    Pawan,
    Delhi, India

    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    Retain all until 2QSep10 results for IOC/HPCL comes out.

    Also, BUY MRPL 1000 at CMP regardless of my sell call. Do not buy back other stocks you have already sold. No need to switch from Satyam to Gold.

  211. Sir,
    Just some statistics for your consideration;

    1) ‘During the Fiscal Year 2008, the Bureau delivered 7.7 billion notes at an average cost of 6.4 cents per note’
    The source of the above comment is an article in Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Engraving_and_Printing

    2) The rumored 2nd round of stimulus (QE2) is expected to be $1 trillion.

    Thus, if this $1 trillion was to be printed (instead of digitally created from thin air), than at the above said rate of production, it would take 130 years.

    ‘Helicopter Ben’ Bernanke must really like bottomless pits because that’s where the US$ is headed.

    Regards

    Ashish Dandekar
    Doha, Qatar

  212. Wanted to know if there are any ADRs you recommend at the present time to invest in.
    Satyam ADR looks attractive (as it has fallen so much in the last couple of weeks), but wanted your input before investing, especially since you had mentioned in an earlier post not to invest in the satyam ADR given it’s delisting.
    Any ADR’s which look really attractive to you at the present time?,

    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    I never said not to invest into SATYAM ADRs. Some readers who have no knowledge of arbitrage or worried about the liquidity of ADRs were told to stay off and buy instead domestic stock.

    At the moment, I do not see any ADR except Satyam and MTNL worth investing.

    SATYAM ADR is meant only for professional investors who know how to trade ADR in OTC market and convert into local shares in case the ADRs are trading at discount to local stock prices. It is not meant for most of the readers here.

  213. Hi Anil, Could you pls pass on my email id also to Ashish Dandekar. I am in exactly the same boat as them with regard to chucking up my job and getting into farming. Txs
    William
    Mumbai-India

    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    I will send them email today with a copy to you. Wait until this evening.

  214. Dear Sir,
    Reliance stocks.Additional information as requested.

    Apologize for my earlier incomplete query.

    I bought in Dec 2008 :-
    RPL 200 @ 218 converted to RIL @ 130 received  12 RIL shares + 12 bonus RIL shares .CMP of RIL -1050

    Rel infra (ADAG) 15 @ 1791 CMP 1088

    am down in the dumps…pls help…should I hold or sell them incurring losses..
    Will follow your advice on RNRL .
    Thanks
    vince(vinod)
    Mumbai
    India
    11th Oct 2010

    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    RIL – Buy 26 more shares during market correction or buy even now. Add more if the market corrects too severly

    Rel Infra has brighter future after 3 years. You may buy more during market correction or on some negative news on Anil Ambani’s stable.

  215. Hi Kalidas

    First of all thanks for your time and effort in answering our questions.

    1. Can we expect the crisis you predict to hit the world in the next 12 months?

    In such a crisis as i understand from ur writing that USD will initially appreciate and Rupees will depreciate? Is that correct since i am holding UAE dirhams and i want to transfer money to india when rupee weakens.

    2. I give your credit for being the first one to predict a recession in 2007 when asset prices were at the peak and give a sell call. 

    Even when sensex touched 20,000 last time in 2008 i did not sell and did not sell when  it was 7000. Today when sensex is 20,000 again;my portfolio is higher than last time. So my question is will long term investors lose because FIIs have to come back to india in the long term because of our favourable demographics and economic growth.

    3. Your statement- “QE did not work in Japan for 17 years, it is not going to work in United States in 17 months.”

    Many economists like J Stiltz have remarked that japan suffered because they did less QE whereas USA should avoid japanese mistake and do QE full heartedly without worrying about fiscal deficit to avoid the japanese style lost decade.

    As i understand the fed has decided to adopt QE policy and print it’s way out of this recession. That is only going to drive asset prices the world over and specially in emerging markets higher and not downwards.

    4. You said you emailed me about your book. but i did not receive your email. My id is princeofindia29@yahoo.com

    princeofindia
    abu dhabi

    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    Too much repetitive questions. If the would be crisis were to happen in next 12 months, I would not have given “SELL” call to sell 95% of your stocks between 7/10 to 14/10

    Use your common sense to evaulate any commentator including me. Forget J Stiltz or whatever. He just made that statement without backing up with numbers. Japan already printed over $ 1 trillion of yen by buying dollars all the time bringing interest rates close to zero. What else they could have done by what he calls QE? Japan will rise only when its interest rates rise to over 5% minimum. Unless the savers earn on interest, they are not inclined to spend that merely erodes their savings.

    For instance, in India your parents will be inclined to spend only because they get 8.5% on bank deposits. If they own Rs 10 lakhs, they get at least Rs 85,000 which they can afford to spend without damaging savings resources. Now, presume your parents are in Japan. When their 10 lakh deposit yield nothing, what they will do? Will they spend 85000 which will bring down their deposit by same amount every year. In 5 years, their 50% savings will disappear.

    you will be stupid to believe that greater printing of money will lead greater supply of FII money to India and the market will move higher. if printing money is the only solution, then no government in the world would every levy taxes or earn income from any other source. They can bring down interest rates and also Income and other taxes to zero by printing their way out. We will in that case, get into massive hyperinflation that may run into 100% to 200% inflation per year. Even wheat atta will sell at the price of current gold prices. Use your common sense again.

    I will send you email for my book today. I have to revise my instructions, hence it was the delay.

  216. Dear Sir,
    I have following Gold ETFs.
    Quantum Gold – 233@ 736, CMP – 938
    UTI Gold – 20@1458, CMP – 1894
    Both have appriciated around 28%.
    Apart from this I have 1 troy ounce of physical gold( 99.999 – Bangalore Refinery mark) purchased at Rs.51000/-, kept in small bank locker in Canara bank.
     
    What should be best action at this point.
    1. Sell Gold ETFs, and retain cash and buy SOEs in case of market corrections.
    2. Sell Gold ETFs and buy Physical silver or Physical Gold.
     
    Thanks,
    -Santosh,Bangalore, India

    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    Gold ETF being not tradeable is an extreme possibility in case of suspension of Internet by United States. The possibility is less than 1%. As such the Gold ETF owned by you do not pose risk except they may not reflect actual movement in gold prices – they may trade at small discount to actual prices. So stay with it, but please remember that there is no substitute to physical ownership of gold. Gold does not require too much of storage space. A small bank locker can easily store gold worth Rs 1 crore without any risk.

    When SOE correct severely in market correction, Swap your Gold ETF into SOE refiners. They will move up faster than any other investment product.

    Buy some Physical Silver from Bangalore refinery. Buy in standard bars with 0.999 or 0.995 purity.

  217. Dear Sir,

    I normally keep all cash in money market funds or liquid funds (India/INR based). I have always understood that they are close to risk free. I hope these will not be affected in the expected crisis or crash ??

    PLS let me know.

    Mehr
    Delhi, 10/10/10

    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    it all depends what kind of money market fund you have invested. it is better to keep the money in bank deposits than money market funds. There will be massive outflow of money even from money market funds. These funds are being used by large corporates who park their money for small income sacrificing the safety net.

    I would not touch any kind of Money Market Funds now. Banks yield much higher amount than those MMF

  218. Hi Sir
    Can you please respond to my BIOCON Querry?
     
    Manjunatha Shetty
    Bangalore India
    OCT 10 2010

    Kalidas says…Monday, October 11, 2010
    The stock is not in my follow up list. I will study it today and let you know tomorrow. I reply immediately if the stock is in my usual follow up study. The stocks like BioCon are difficult to understand as they are too technical.

  219. Dear Sir ,

    I had invested in RBI Bonds and are getting matured next week. I am going to get around 7 lacs which I do not need for next 10-12 years. Please suggest a suitable scheme/idea so that I can park my money. This money has been allocated for one of my daughter’s marriage. I have enough exposure in Equities. Can I invest in Gold ETFs since your targets are quite high. Please suggest ?
    Thanks as always for your valuable suggestions and insights.
    Regards ,

    Mehboob Matte.

    Kalidas says…Sunday, October 10, 2010
    NOTE: ALWAYS APPEND YOUR NAME, CITY AND COUNTRY TO YOUR SIGNATURE. PLEASE FOLLOW PROTOCOL RIGIDLY IF YOU WANT REPLY.

    I do not know your location and whether you are NRI or not. Better buy some Gold and Silver physically. Of late, Gold ETF is lagging behind the physical gold prices. it proves that paper gold is not real substitute of physical gold. Further, I am fearing for the first time that Internet might be stopped overnight by US President. So even if you have Gold ETF, you can not even sell it online or otherwise.

    Hold rest in cash. If you wish you may buy 300 shares of IOC, 1000 shares of MRPL and 200 shares of HPCL. Reduce other equities if you already own. This will be better choice.

    Retain balance in Bank deposits or Savings account.

  220. Industrial property
    Dear Anil Sir,
    I am advised by my father to buy a industrial estate near Ahmedabad which will cost me around 80 lakhs. I have 30 lakhs and the rest money I am thinking of taking a loan from NRI account in india. We are expecting monthly rental income on the same to be in the region of 30,000 Rs and the monthly installment works aroud 62000 for the 50 lakh loan. So I will have to put in about 30000 everymonth, which I can easily put in. He is expecting the value of the property to double in 3 years. Do you think we can make money in this one and should go ahead. Or wait for the correction as predicated by you to happen and then invest.
    Kindly advice…
    thanks,
    Amit
    Galway, Ireland. 10/10/10 12:35

    Kalidas says…Sunday, October 10, 2010
    The answer is NO. This is no time to get into property, especially Industrial property where rental defaults are maximum. If the stock market crashes, almost all liquidity will disapper hurting commercial and industrial sector most. I do not know where you are buying the industrial property,. the location, price etc. but this is general advice. If you want to invest, better chose Commercial Property where the return is higher and default risk is relatively lower than industrial properties.

  221. Respected Kalidas Ji,
    Kindly suggest where should one invest his money for TAX SAVING purpose in India at current market situation.
    Regards
    Mohit(PUNJAB)
    India

    Kalidas says…Sunday, October 10, 2010
    I never invest from Tax savings point of views. I see where I can make good and sizable money. if I have to pay taxes, I just pay and get out. It is net amount that I earn is more important than what I paid towards taxes.

    If at all, you want to save taxes, invest into stocks more than 12 months like IOC, HPCL, MRPL, ONGC, CAIRNS, Essar Oil and other energy stocks. If you hold it over 12 months, all earnings are tax free and dividend too.

  222. US$, C$, V/s INR
     
    Dear Kalidasji,
    I read your reply to one of the posts , saying that the US$ is reading for a massive fall, and also read in another post where you recommended to hold onto the US$ , as it will appreciate against the INR, both these statements are contradicting, can you throw some light on this, I understand that the reference in both these cases was different , could you guide us what should be the strategy , should we hold onto the US$ or sell it and convert to INR.
    I am holding around US$ 10000, and C$ 7500, so just wanted to get your views on this
     
    Thanks
     
    Rahul Bondre
    Mumbai India
    10th Oct 2010

    Kalidas says…Sunday, October 10, 2010
    When the market crashes worldwide, there will be homecoming of currencies. US Pension and Mutual Funds will liquidate Indian equities and buy their own dollar to bring it home where the opportunities will be plentiful in crash. That is, they will sell rupees and buy dollar, so even if the US fundamentals worsen, there will be temporary imbalance between Demand and Supply, so dollar will appreciate.

    Hold on to your position in dollar for the time being. If at all you want to change, better buy Aussie Dollar or even hong Kong dollar which is linked/pegged to USD. A time is going to come when with rapid appreciation in Chinese Yuan, there will increased pressure on Hong Kong dollar to severe the peg which will force over 12% revaluation upward of Hong Kong dollar.

  223. SELL Target

    Dear Kalidasji,
    I have already sold my Hindalco(50%) , Tata steel(All) and jai Prakash Power (50%) rest I will sell in next 1-2 days.
    Looking to your replies to other queries I am planning to SELL following stocks. Correct me if I am wrong.

    Axis bank 10@ 1332 CMP 1570
    Idea Cellular 25 @ 138 CMP 71
    IDFC 75 @ 173 CMP 207
    Dena Bank 150 @ 90 CMP 115

    Regards,
    Yogesh B.K.
    Bahrain
    10-Oct-10 11:15AM 

    Kalidas says…Sunday, October 10, 2010
    Retain IDFC. Buy more of IDEA when it is below Rs 60
     

  224. Hi Kalidas,
    I sold all the stocks in my portfolio except Satyam and have INR 6 lacs in cash now. Would you advice to shift this money to Gold ETF’s till the time market comes to attractive levels. (I cannot buy physical gold due to security issues.) OR should I remain in cash?
    Regards,
    Ravi
    Gurgaon, India
    10-10-10

    Kalidas says…Sunday, October 10, 2010
    Hold the cash if you can not buy physical gold. I think there is option on BSE to buy gold 0.995 purity which is convertible into gold at anytime. This is better than Gold ETF but still for the reasons told to other readers, there is no substitute for physical gold in oncoming financial crisis.

  225. Dear Sir,
    Reliance stocks.
    I have been reading your advices since sept end & resisting to write my query here coz I am going to look the dumbest acc to you with what I have done in 2008 dec.
    But i dont want to get onto the roads hence need your SOS advice.

    I bought RNRL in dec 2008 350 shares @ 164 avg CMP 40
    K View Buy 1150 @ CMP now.
    RPL 200 @ 218 converted to RIL @ 130
    K View How many RIL you got. you have to be specific about what you write. Can not advise in the absence of complete and sensible information.
    Rpower 27@ 270 cmp 165
    K View Hold, You are going to buy RNRL which will get you finally RPOWER
    Rel infra 15 @ 1791 CMP 1088
    K View Which is this Rel Infra of ADAG group or MDAG group. Please learn to write your query clearly.

    am down in the dumps…pls help…should I hold or sell them incurring losses..

    Thanks
    vince(vinod)
    Mumbai
    India
    10th Oct 2010

    Kalidas says…Sunday, October 10, 2010
    Read my comments as above.

  226. Respected Kalidasji,
    Some Observations:
    1. Don’t You think that QE2 will postpone US problems for some more time like QE1? Meanwhile, US can play havoc in the rest of the world thru currency war and attract world money to dollars. It can also repair their banks with ease money being followed for one more year?

    2. How can you think that India can be an epicenter when its economy is hardly $1.3T? There are many play items like China’s real estate/PIGS/Dubai/even Europe with its strong currency positions besides allowing capitalization of its institutions are likely play its spoil sport to the world economy?

    3. Anil Agarwal invested in Aluminium Refinery in Orissa with the promise he will be given mining license but forced to buy Bauxite from GMDC/Other sources due to Cong Rahul Gandhi politics. In the same fashion, if Anil Ambani would have done to RNRL, as you have said, we wouldn’t have ended losses in RNRL.
    Regards,

    V.S.Kumar, Jorhat (India)

    Kalidas says…Sunday, October 10, 2010
    1. No, judging from current events. Earlier, during Asian Monetary Crisis, the world was taken aback by the US strategy and hedge funds operators like George Soros and Julian Robertson. This time around almost all leading countries, who are even more powerful than other western nations, are better educated and are able to respond to challenge. Look at Greece, used by US to attack on Euro. While Europeans did not understand this game, they are dunmb idiots, China understood it very well and gave support to Greece and indirectly to Euro with the result when the Euro fell to 1.20 rose to 1.40 now.

    2. Indian stocks have blossomed beyond fiundamentals. Look at them – Interest rates are rising to almost double digits, inflation running into high teens with food items registering almost 16% inflation, consumers are shunning credits (credit card growth is declining), commodities are having huge increase, weaker rupee hurting oil prices that abets inflation, most turnover on exchanges are in casino type future and options category with very small portion devoted to cash segments, use of cash settlements for settling future trades encouraging speculation rather than hedging operations, concealment of massive losses in derivatives due to lousy Chartered Accountants not reporting the truth and making up the books in the name of forex losses, the policy of the government to enter into Forex trading in almost every currency when Indian Rupee is not even convertible, and incoming of Mark to Market rules, and also massive losses suffered or about to be suffered by investors in ULIP schemes, and overpriced markets based on GDP growth which is about to go down, not up, due to massive reversal of interest rates from falling to rising one at rapid pace, will make India highly vulnerable to sharp fall. When the FII leaves India in hordes, Rupee might take mighty fall that may reverse every positive factor now being touted by the government to attract foreign capital.

    The crash usuall come from highly hyped markets, in this case, it is India. When the housing tanks, almost every other consumer durables like Cars, White goods fall sharply. All growth you are seeing today might disappear in just less than 2 months. So, India is going to be the epicenter. India’s RBI is incapable to manage forex crisis of massive scale. Their preference to raise interest rates by 1.5% in last two months is indicative of their limited knowledge to handle the economy.

    3. You may be right. There are three Anil you know of – Anil Agarwal, Anil Ambani and Anil Selarka. RNRL is now a history and settled down to the low. It is time to buy them now.

  227. Sir,
    I have been using my AXIS bank NRE/PIS account to do trading. Do you think I should move it elsewhere considering that AXIS bank is on your list of banks that could be in trouble? What other banks could I use?
    George
    NJ US

    Kalidas says…Sunday, October 10, 2010
    No need. There is no trouble for AXIS Bank as yet. I am foreseeing only stocks related advance being more at Axis Bank and HDFC Bank which may cause them trouble later on.

    There is no cause of concern for your DMAT Account which is nothing but a trust account. The stock lies with the depository.
     

  228. Sir,
    Please refer to this link:
    http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/newsfeeds/hhwebadmin/item/5238859/prospect-of-qe2-added-13-trillion-to-wilshire-5000
    People are expecting the next round of Quantitative easing to be of the size 1.0 to 1.5 trillion USD and the stock markets are already up in anticipation including the Indian stock markets where Nifty jumped 10% in September.
    I would love to hear your views on the impact this next round of money printing will have on financial markets.
    Regards,
    Pawan,
    Delhi, India

    Kalidas says…Sunday, October 10, 2010
    Bernanke is adopting a strategy that things will take care of themselves if given a time, or extended time. This is why he is on “printing spree”. It did not work in Japan for 17 years, it is not going to work in United States in 17 months.

    Asset inflation does not remain in place if the earnings do not add up or catch up. Asset prices should be the result of the earnings, not the cause.

    We are going to see precipitate and cascading failure of banks and very large financial institutions soon. The interest rates that have remained so low due to reckless printing, is now all set to to go higher with dollar plummeting all the way down. US has seen massive fall in food grains especially in Corn and Cotton. It is going to spell serious trouble worldwide.

    Watch the following banks everyday:
    Bank of America
    J P Morgan
    UBS (Union Bank of Switzerland)
    RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland)
    HSBC
    General Electric (USA)
    GMAC (General Motors Acceptance Corporation)
    Deutsche Bank
    ICICI Bank
    AXIS Bank
    State Bank of India

    All these banks are vulnerable. State Bank of India may be in trouble but will be supported by the Government. However, stock market collapse will play havoc with Axis Bank and HDFC Bank. Derivative failures are increasing everyday at the rate of $ 75 billions per month in USA alone.

    Start getting out of expensive, hyped and high profile stocks. Stay more with physical gold, silver and palladium. Sell Real Estates where you are making several times profit and lease the rental properties for a while.

    Real physical assets that is easily exchangeable (like Gold, Silver) will have great store value. When you feel like getting out of Gold and Silver then only get into general stocks. Stay with highly dependent growth stocks (not infrastructures) in energy sector like OMC. Others are highly vulnerable. Do not read too much about GDP and alikes – these numbers no one understands.

  229. Kalidasji,
    I had read an article writen by you on Ratan Tata during MMB period and I am not able to locate anywhere. it was too good. If you can send a link or copy of it, will be great.
    Considering that you have been suggesting others to buy IOC, MRPL, Satyam, Ruchi Infra and Cairn, I have held these. Pl. correct me if my holding of these shares even after 10-15 Oct is a wrong decision
    IOC  1000 @ 403  cmp  424
    Satyam 1300 @83.54 cmp. 84.34
    MRPL  500 @ 75.13 CMP 82
    Cairn 300 @341 cmp. 338
    Ruchi Infra 1000@36.85 cmp. 34.35.
    pl. Advice, want to take action on Monday if I have to.
    Regards
    Rang-Jama, Bangalore.

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    You need to grow up. I can not be your 247365 adviser (24 hours 7 days 365 days). I replied you once before, now you are asking same question again.

    Nothing to worry about your stocks. Think of buying Ruchi Infra more – by about 3000 shares at least.

  230. Sir
    if possible Kindly provide my email address to RaJ ( 9/10/10) whom I think I can help
    To raj
    I Live in New Delhi, and in to Real Estate and can be a help if Sir is kind enough to provide you my email
    Ajay
    New Delhi, India

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    I will do it as special case, but please avoid such references in future.

    NOTE: Contact details are sent. Check your Inbox
     

  231. Sir,
    Please see the following links:
    http://indiaearnings.moneycontrol.com/sub_india/compnews.php?autono=490037
    http://indiaearnings.moneycontrol.com/sub_india/compnews.php?autono=490035
    They talk about the earnings estimate for IOC and HPCL respectively for the quarter ended Sept., 2010.
    In view of these, would you suggest any action to be taken in regards to these two SOE stocks.
    Regards,
    Pawan,
    Delhi, India

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    The report is not so clear – whether it is Quarterly profit number or annual one – it says Y-on-Y basis. Indian press is notorious to churn out misleading numbers most of the times.

    What they say was said by me in January 2009 and also a few months back in the form of long article on SOE refineries that may give 300% to 500% return.

    IOC estimate as per your link is estimated at Rs 5192 crores against 240 cr shares outstanding or about Rs 21 per share per quarter or Rs 80 per year. The P/E works out to just 5 times.

    HPCL may turn out quarterly profit of Rs 1792 crores against 32 crore shares outstanding or Rs 56 per share per quarter or Rs 224 per share annualized. Current stock price is Rs 525 oir about. Now you can see the potential return in 3 years.

    When such stocks are going to make enormous money, who has time to look at the small cap or mid cap stocks? If you want to make big money, stay with big companies about to make big money. That is the sure way to enormous wealth.

  232. Sir,
     
    1) Sold out all my IFCI yesterday at 73.1 (purchased around 16, thanks for the massive profit of 350%). The reason I could purchase when I did was not because I had money, but because your recommendation at that time (Dec’08) steadied my nerve and made me put that money in the right place at the right time.
     
    Please ‘steady my nerve’ again by answering my ‘Agricultural aspirations’ query (posted on the 4th of Oct’10).
    I know you are extremely busy and I am imposing on your time, but I am disappointed every-time I log on to the forum and see that my query is unanswered.
    Plus, seeing the rate of new questions being posted, I fear my post might get ‘missed out’.
     
    2) May I take the liberty of sharing my email (temporary)address with Dongre (HTC rocks!) and Rajesh on this forum?
     
    Thanks & Regards
     
    Ashish Dandekar
    Doha, Qatar,9th Oct’10  

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    Where the answer takes too long, or where I have to do some research, I skip that post for a day or two, so that shorter post could be replied in time.

    I will reply you – wait for a day or two. I am replying you separately by email tomorrow of the email ID of others as requested by you. It will be copied to all of you so that each of you can communicate with each other.

    I never miss any post. Unanswered post is code colored in my admin section, so that I know which is pending reply.

  233. PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

    First time, I stumbled upon this site today, courtesy Google. And I am reading a single web site for quite some time!!!

    With vast knowledge and surprisingly time to address individual’s queries, if you do portfolio management, then it will be a good experience (whatever it means, I do not imply “profit” alone here) for the investors. Don’t know if such a comment has been replied-to already here (I tried searching before posting this).
    Suresh, Chennai, India, 09-Oct-2010 14:30

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    Welcome to my website. I wanted to start Portfolio Counselling service (not management) but due to my heavy mobility could not implement it. I may start within 3 months after going to USA.

    Enjoy my website in the meanwhile.

  234. RNRL
    Dear Sir,
    In the anticipation of market correction, I have already sold 70% of my stock holdings, with exception of RNRL and Gold. I am currently holding RNRL @ 71.50 (avg) , 1800 nos , will it be an good strategy to book loss and shift to other sector or buy more in market correction to average out price. I am even fine to hold it  next 2-3 years if I see the stock giving me  positive returns. Kindly advice me in this situation.
    Regards,
    Bhakti, UK

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    Too late to sell. Better buy 2200 RNRL now. Its all downside is over for all practical purpose – market rally or correction.

    Hold on to Gold. Very recently, Ashanti spent $ 1300 per troy ounce to buy back its all future hedge contracts, losing almost US$ 2.6 billions in the process. It is now owned by Anglo American – a British Giant mining company.

    It means that they are expecting Gold price to go over $ 3600 at least (because they have to recover their cost of $ 1300 + interest for 18 months). In other words, they appear to have bought such huge quantity (about 2 Million ounces or about 60 tons) for simple reason that some really big physical buyers are in the market or may come to the market to recover the years long short position. In simple words, they know that US government has turned physical buyer for huge quantity, justifying my assessment in my book “Sub Prime Resolved” that US has lost almost 6297 tons out of 8137 tons reportedly held physicially. Technically, the gold is lying with US but the ownership lies mostly in Europe. If Europe asks for physical delivery of gold held at FED, there will be huge embarassment to Obam Administration. The prices of gold are sure to hit the roof, and my earlier prediction of $6400 may come true at least upto 80% if not fully.

  235. Anilji,
    What’s your view on Coal India IPO.
    This is going to be biggest ipo for India bigger than Rpower.
    Do you advise to apply in this for long term or just ignore.
    Thanks,
    Awadhesh
    Mumbia,India

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    It is a debt free company and good issue but it is so large that almost everyone will have it. In that case who the present shareholders will sell to. The situation is similar to what hype was created for RPOWER.

    I would wait for secondary market reaction to judge the issue. Government owned companies do not give much retrun on IPO. Nevertheless one may buy this stock as core holding.

    When I have stocks like OMC (IOC, BPCL, HPCL, MRPL,) which have far greater potential than Coal India, I rivet my attention only on them. for me there are no better opportunities than OMC at the moment.

  236. Sir,

    I have a personal investment decision in which I would really request your opinion. If you could pls send me your personal email id or your contact number, wherein I may communicate with you.

    Regards
    Mehr

  237. BIOCON
    Sir
    I have some holdings in BIOCON.This stock has gone up suddenly.
    BIOCON CMP 410.60
    Any reason for rallying? Do you suggest to sell or hold?
     
    Manjunatha shetty
    Bangalore India
    OCT 09 2010
     

  238. Sir

    I want to buy your book subprime resolved.Where is it available in Udupi(Karnataka)?

    Regards
    Princeofindia
    Abu Dhabi

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    Email will be sent separately to you today. I have only 20 copies in India from where I can ship within India. I intend to bring more copies in 2 months time for distribution in India.

  239. Dear sir ,
    I check your blog everyday but did not have any question to ask , but now i have one :) .
    1. I hold Spice Mobility (BSE: 517214|NSE: SPICEMOBIL) . I bought this stock on my own study and conviction . The company sells and now also manufactures mobile phone as main business . Its promoted by BK Modi of Modi Xerox and Spice telecom fame . Their product line contains less priced ,dual sim phone .I believed that an organized low price handset manufacturer was good to invest in.I accumulated 500 of it with price of around 40 and now the stock is trading around 100 .
    Now my inexperience with investing is confusing me . Should i retain this handset company as per my original conviction and plan or does the economic situation warrant to sell it all by 15th Oct or so .
    2. I wanted to meet you before you move to USA . Would it possible for you to give me a date on any weekend at pune/Mumbai or during Diwali at amrawati ( am from Akola dist ) ?
    3. I am interested and awaiting your writeup on asian economic crisis .
    Wish you best of things in life .
    sachin,pune,India .

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    The promoters are lousy. Honestly, I have not followed this stock but since you are in good money and markets are at most vulnerable point, better sell 80% and retain the balance for long term growth value. (provided you are convinced of this company’s prospects)

    Better make your own judgement – I have not followed Mobile telecom sector for a while due to my lowest preference list.

  240. Sir,
    Thank u for your brief reply. I take your advise in all humility and i agree there could be more better things to do.Also your point regarding the the probable hundreds of mails you recieve, that i mentioned of, is well taken. I deeply appreciate your frank, forthright and down to earth style. Do carry on and may god give you the strength to do so. also expecting your personal email soon before the deadline. with regards.

  241. Sir,please give some view on Japenese yen. is it good to buy usd against yen at these levels.

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    It is already at high level. There is no strength in Japanese economy. The home coming of yen (the corporates are bringing their dollar home) is enhancing the value of yen.

    The best is still Australian dollar, followed by Brazil Real, Russian Ruble, South African Rand and finally, Indian Rupee (in short term)

  242. Dear Sir,

    I have following stocks from ADAG group. I thinking to do the following before 15 Oct.
    RCOM 100@324 – CMP 180 – Sell at CMP and book loss
    RNRL 2100@68 – CMP 40 – Hold
    RPower 250@185 – CMP 165 – Sell and book marginal loss
    Am I thinking in correct direction.
     
    Thanks,
    -Santosh, Bangalore, India

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    Switch from RCO< to some other stocks such as Ruchi Infra or even RNRL for the time being. RCOM debt is simply mind boggling. in era of rising interest rates, this company is most vulnerable, seeing the mobile phones and SIM cards being sold like prostitutes selling their services for a song. There is not much margin in Mobile phone services – there are simply huge number of service providers who are growing day by day.

  243. Dear Kalidas ji,
    i work in dubai, From last eight years I have saved 1.5 crore which is in cash in my NRE account in deposits. I saved money this for property.Please tell, i have two options.Gurgaon where property is very high already and Dubai where it has already gone down by 40-50%. I want to buy it for investment.Pls guide.

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    you have to ask this question to property experts. I know of properties only in Mumbai Metro area, not other places.

    From strategic investment point of view, I avoid all properties until stock markets severely corrects which day in my opinion is very near. The strong rally in gold and silver prices is basic indicator. Further, IMF is warning of currency war now, which I predicted for more than 6 months before in the form of an article in this blog.

  244. Dear Kalidasji,
    As you have mentioned in your book very clearly about difference in non-recourse mortgages in US and Home Loans in India/Hongkong. Here is a breaking news.
    23 states have made cease and desist orders on all foreclosures. There is a call for a national cease and desist order on all foreclosure.
    If the order on all foreclosures goes national, all securitized debt on mortgages is therefore of questionable value as that would mean they cannot source the collateral.”
    All CDO’s/CSO’s aggregated based on these mortgages ae going to go bust.
    What you were predicting for long time is going to be true. The banks holding these loans aare going to go bust.
    What do you feel? is this going to hasten up the oncoming correction?
    I sold 50% of my equity holding today. Time will tell if I am doing right.
    Dongre, Mumbai, Indian Oct 8/2010

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    Original mortgages are not necessarily of questionable quality. Yes, there could be some defaults due to people losing jobs that places the lenders in possession of the mortgaged properties.

    CDO/CDs have alreadey gone bust and they are still going bust on more and more mortgages being placed under foreclosure list. Once the mortgage is foreclosed, all dependent CDO/CDS will turn ZERO. By rough estimate, almost $ 75 billions per month is added to CDO/CDS zero value list.

    It is the severe form of crisis not so easy to resolve, UNLESS Obama reads my book 10 times and take actions. There is no other solution than the one suggested in my book “Sub Prime Resolved”
     
     

  245. Dear Sir

    Enthiran movie produced by SUNTV is highly successful and expected minimum profit of Rs.100 crores based on the number of screens and shows.  In this connection how do you rate the SUNTV shares? There is not much movement in the script. Why

    Regards
    R.Yuvaraj
    Chennai

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    Yes, ROBOT is a hit movie (Hindi version) and Enthiran, the Tamil version, is also reported to be great. I will be seeing ROBOT within next few days.

    However, we do not know the real distribution arrangements between the maker and SUN TV. On the face of it, this movie could contribute good income, but then again, it all depends how much did SUN TV pay for it to make money.

    I therefore have no opinion. One movie success doe not lead to buying stock of any company. Yes, if we had anticipated the success and took the position, things would have been different.

  246. “The people used to blame me how could I blame Ratan Tata when I am not even 0.1% of what he is worth today. Well. I do not have to equal myself with anyone before commenting on their actions or fate.”
    Sir please writeup an article/your views on Ratan Tata.
    Also please add an option for Preview before submitting the comment, as sometimes a copy paste having text on different lines come up as single paragraph.
    Thanks,
    Akhilesh Singh
    Noida
    08/10/2010

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    I do not write biography. This is not my cup of tea. There are other specialists and also personal secretaries of Ratan Tata who know him very well for over years. They are better place. I just evaulate their mental judgement for which I do not need to be close at him. I can read him from thousands miles away.

  247. NELP IX
    Hi Sir,
    This query is with reference to my query on 1st October. There is announcement of NELP IX bidding by DGH on OCT 15th. This is a definite news for oil exploration companies and please follow-up the scrips shivvani oil and alphageo as you replied.
    Please also comment on kingfisher rally and any target from your side? If rally continues in kingfisher I like to stay with my delivery stocks 300 bought @74.5 (CMP 82).
    Thanks and Regards,
    Krishna,
    Hyderabad.

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    you simply do not have idea how risky is to invest into exploration company. I do not or would never invest into them. There is always a hypem super hype, and they talk about reserves under the ground which neither you nor I can assess.

    When we have something tangible to look at, like IOC, I do not know why do you want to venture into risky bets where your and my knowledge is close to ZERO?

    Kingfisher is technically bankrupt and has a disruptive management in the name of Vijay Mallya. I avoid stocks where their CEO is flanked by beautiful and brainless dames in scanty clothes. Invest at your own risk.

    You appear to be in habit of chasing stocks. Why did you buy Kingfisher at Rs 74 when you had all time in the world to buy it below 30s for a long time?
     
     

  248. Dear Kalidasji,

    Here you go.. KingFisher… Bailout Links..
    1,
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/tv/news/cnbc-tv18-comments/kfa-debt-restructuring-banks-incur-over-rs-600cr-losses_489619.html

    2, http://www.business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?tab=r&autono=410087&subLeft=1&leftnm=2

    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    So, where is the government bail out in this case. Read the reports again. The banks wanted to treat the restructured loan as “standard assets” and make less provisioning to soften the impact on their earnings. This is nothing but the accounting manipulation suggested to inflate the banks’ profits unreasonanbly.

    When the Airline company like Kingfisher can not even pay “Airport Lending charges” which amounted to just under 10 crores, where is the question of lending them over Rs 7000 crores? Where did the Vijay Mallya spend this much sum at the first place? A brand new 777 plane does not cost over Rs 150 crores, then how come Kingfisher could have contracted a real fund based debt of Rs 7000 crores (almost 50 planes)

    Where was the necessity for banks to advance such huge sums when the companies like Boeing and Airbus allow financing at much cheaper rate spread over 15 to 20 years, at much lower interest rate than the banks charge? And. most Airlines lease the airplanes (do not buy outright) from companies like Airlines Leasing Corporation ()exact name I donot remember) which world’s largest Aircraft leasing company?

    The entire debt of the Kingfisher is secured by the entire shareholdings of Mallya in United Breweries. If the KFA fails, the very first stock to take massive hit will be United Breweries – the banks will be forced to sell that stock at market price just to get out of Vijay Mallya.

  249. Dear Kalidasji,
    I had recently bought 1000 IOC @ 440 & would like ur advice that at what rate should i average it.
    Also can u give me ur views for TATA MOTORS for next 2 months holding bought @ 1130.
    Thanks & Best Regards
    Harman

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    As a rule of thumb, do not average blue chip until it is 20% down and second liners (what you call mid cap or small cap) until they have dropped by minimum 30%.

    Why do you want to average down now? And stop your habit of chasing stocks as if you were chasing some beautiful girls. Some marginal movements are always there.

    Also learn to buy only in dips, not in rally.

    SELL TATA MOTORS – ALL

  250. Hi Sir,
    As directed, I have today sold off all my holdings in cash and squared off positions in Future..
    I am now seating on cash, waiting for your next BUY call.
    Assuming that I am allocating money in ratio of Rs 1 Lakh..
    Please suggest how to diversify it in which ration across which all stocks, gold etc.
    Your answer would be helpful for many other investors like me.
    Regards
    $amir, Mumbai , 10/07
     

  251. Dear Sir,
     
    Sorry about the fonts in the previous post. My 2 cents as follows.

    For miner the average buy price is $1300/oz. it is possible that yesterday’s surge to 1365 may be due to unhedge by the miner.
    If A Gold Miner can unhedge its position at average of $1300/oz, it means isn’t it still a good price to strong the physical position?
    Regards
    Amit
    Melbourne Australia

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    You do not understand how the hedge or forward selling works. It is a 1 year to 9 years future contracts. When a miner sells his future production at say $ 400 when the market price was $ 280, he feels that he is making profit. He can not sell the production in spot market because it is already pre-sold. He has to buy back the future contracts if the spot market rises to new high if he wants to sell the physical gold in spot market.

    Until such time he has to pay roll over interest rate which was very low – almost 1% for long time.

    Now that the mIners seems to have received information that US government does not have physical gold (which was first disclosed only by this Author in his book “Sub Prime Resolved” almost 20 months ago), they are rushing to the market to buy back the gold shorted by them as low as $ 400 against present price of $ 1300. The contract that they sold for $ 400 for say 2014 delivery may be trading at $ 1700, so that they lose $1300 per ounce.

    They are not going to lose $ 2.6 billions unless they have strong and authentic information that US is bankrupt and it does not have 8100 tons of gold as projected in FED balance sheet.

    I am the only person in the word who detected the massive fraud on American Citizens by its own government. Once this becomes public, the gold prices will run amuck rising $ 100 to $ 300 per day.

    Since the gold prices are very high, the Europeans may be feeling to sell their own gold lying with Federal Reserve in the form of earmarked gold. If they ask for physical delivery from US, there will be financial meltdown never before seen in the world. Almost all protege banks of US governments will fail.

  252. Dear Sir,

    The big news on the physical front is the annoucement from Anglo Gold that they have finalized their deal to opt out of their hedging program with JPMorgan. They will take a huge loss of US $2.63 billion  and their cost to exit the hedges was at US $1300.00 per oz. I guess these guys have finally learned their lesson.

    AngloGold Ashanti eliminates hedge book
    “AU has completed the elimination of its gold hedge book, providing the company and its shareholders with full exposure to the prevailing gold price. The company will now sell the gold it produces at market prices and therefore expects to enhance cash flow and profit margins as a result of removing hedge contracts. The cost of scheduled hedge book maturities during Q3 of 2010 was approximately $98M. The additional cost of closing out all future hedge contracts amounted to approximately $2.63B, representing an average buy-back price of $1,300 per ounce for this final tranche of the hedge restructure. The cost will be reflected in adjusted headline earnings for the last two quarters of 2010. This final phase of hedge restructuring has been funded with proceeds from the issue of new equity and the mandatory convertible bonds completed in September, as well as cash from internal sources and debt facilities.”

    Regards
    Amit

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    Avoid using bold caps for the entire message. Your message was simply cluttered with many useless codes. Write simple English in simple style. I am reading all.

    ASHANTI was the notorious forward seller of gold what you call “hedging operation” . this company used to sell forward as long as 7 to 8 years of future production for marginal rise in price. They used to sell 7 years forward at about $330 per troy ounce when the spot prices were about $260 to 290. This is why the company became almost bankrupt.

    This company with American Barrick were the notorious hedgers at the advice of J P Morgan who is a proxy for US Federal Reserve and Treasury. Wherever the gold or silver is shorted, this bank is referred to as major seller – check any records. This is the only reason that US FED/Treasury saved JP Morgan in the name of “bail out” giving them as much as US$ 59 billions on almost 30 years loan basis carrying interest of just 2% per year with initial 2 years holiday.

    it is the JP Morgan and Soloman Brothers (now bankrupt) who were used by FED and Treasury to short gold, oil and currencies of those gold/oil producing countries. Refer to my book “Subprime Resolved” With chapter on Gold and Oil price manipulations. I knew their dirty games for several years.

    The people used to blame me how could I blame Ratan Tata when I am not even 0.1% of what he is worth today. Well. I do not have to equal myself with anyone before commenting on their actions or fate. I referred to Ashanti and American Barrick trouble in 2000 to 2003 when I was still a stock brokers and advised my all clients to shy away from their bonds.

    The people laughed at me when I released my 100 page report “bankrupt US$” and boldly predicted way back in 1999 before Progressive Club in Hong Kong (an Association of all NRI Businessmen in Hong Kong) that Gold would hit $ 1200 in a few years when it was still trading at $ 280 or about.

  253. Kalidasji,

    This is about Kingfisher Airlines Bailout.   Why the Govt of India is bailing out the Liquor King Vijay Mallaya?  Why doesn’t Anyone say that this stimulus should not be given to Vijay Mallya? 

    When Indian Airlines made loss, they asked it to privatise, however when a Private Airline ( I take Exception here ) makes loss, they want a Bailout from Govt.

    Why do they support Incompetent and Inefficient people? They want socialism for Riches..

    Your comments please….

    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai,  India.

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    Provide me a link of the news relating to government bailout. I do not read everything.

  254. AnilJi,
    I just wanted to know and learn about  your choice of selection of
    ruchiinfra. How do we know if the company will do good in future. Also
    what parameters do we need to judge when picking a stock.
    Do we need to look at the investments ruchiinfra have.?
    Please let us know from your knowledge and guide us.
    If this stock has fallen to its 52 week low what could be the cause.
    Thanks
    Sunil
    Bangalore India.

    Kalidas says…Saturday, October 09, 2010
    I will restart series of stocks recommendations which will contain full detals. The scrip was recommended on adhoc basis because I was frequently travelling.

    In short, this company is involved in promoting storage and other infrastructure facilities in Port area which is the biggest development area. With roads widening everywhere into 4 to 6 lanes, the traffic to port area will develop several fold. This will require the appropriate facilities for storage and other facilities in or nearby port area. This is the main reason.
     
    Do you want to buy the stock when it is at 52 weeks high? I always suggest stocks when they are in lows. The stocks trade at low or 52WLow for various reasons – lack of interest, unknown entity etc. The group behind this company is solid Ruchi Soya which is almost 8000 crores enterprise. They have money, power and administrative strength.

    I usually antiticipate the demand for the products having regard to economic or sectoral developments and then search for stocks that have huge potential and trading at relatively cheaper price. There are no severe negatives about this stock which prompt me to place it in my buy list.
     

  255. Title: IDFC’s long-term tax-saver infrastructure bonds
    Question:
    Should we invest in the perspective of tax-saving and good returns…
    Regards,
    Ojal Suthar, Udaipur, INDIA

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    Yes, you may.

  256. Dear Kalidasji,
                        I am still anticipating your kind response for the quaries which I have posted yestarday. Please answer if your valueable time permits.
                           Regards,
                                       Tridip

  257. Sir, you have recommended a sell of 95% of all holdings. But on 7th Oct, you have said that regarding Satyam “I buy now, not later. If I am proved right, I will have First Strike advantage”. So can Satyam be purchased at current rate?

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    NOTE: Always append your name, city and country to your signature. Please follow protocol rigidly if you want reply.

    You are not Kalidas. You have to have strong stomach to digest bad news if it comes immediately after buying. If you have that, you can buy it. Satyam is within rest of 5% of my sell/hold call. that is 95% sell and 5% hold or buy more.

  258. Kalidasji,

    As per your advice I am not taking any action during/before 10 Oct for following shares held by me..

    Cairn  300 @ 341 cmp. 338
    IOC  1000 @ 403  cmp  424
    Satyam 1300 @ cmp. 83.54
    MRPL  500 @ 75.13 CMP 82

    Rest Ashok Leyland, Essar oil, HUL, Zeenews, Evinix been sold with marginal profit/loss.

    I feel only ‘Jai Ho & Joy ho’ after hearing from you.

    Thanks.

    Rang-Jama, Bangalore, India.

  259. Kalidas
    I am thinking of buying 10,000 Evinix at CMP of around 3.0 as the down side looks limited even in a market correction. Would you advise me to go ahead ?
     
    Mohan,Mumbai,India

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    Not yet. Let the market fall by 500 points in a day when you can enter.

  260. Mahindra Satyam BSE: 500376   |   NSE: SATYAMCOMP
    Sir,
    Today 8th October and First day of Nav Ratre I wish to buy MS 400 at CMP of 86.30
    but in reply to Krishna you have said ” It is the first wicket that has fallen. We have 9 more to go. Keep selling into strength and do not buy anything at all.”
    Does it apply to Satyam Also ? This just confused me as you have earlier told that Sell Call does not apply to MS.
    Can I hold DCB ( BSE: 532772   |   NSE: DCB ) 400 @ avg 54.15, CMP 61.65 on 07.10.10 though I include this and Spicejet for sale before 15 as advised to others.
    kindly reply
    Due regards
    Ajay
    New Delhi, India

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    I have made it absolutely clear of my sale call. I have said that sell from 7/10 to 15/10 almost 95% of your holdings.

    You are new to Satyam for which there are some uncertainties. So wait until its Quarterly results are out and merger announcements are made. Some time it is better to pay Rs 92 rather than Rs 86 now. Your intended quantity is not that much as to required detailed analysis.

    Now, if you can understand when I say – SELL 95% of your holdings -it means everything. I write very simple English, so conduct yourself for DCB and Spicejet and almost all stocks listed on NSE and BSE. There are no exceptions.

  261. Respected Kalidasji,

    I am holding 50 shares of AMBUJA CEMENT @ 149 since NOV. 2007, present CMP is RS. 142. What is the next course of action for me? HOLD or SELL as per your general SELL call? Pl. suggesst.

    – Ramesh, Mumbai, India.

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    You are downright stupid. When you bought at Rs 149 and then when it crashed to less than Rs 50, why did not you buy again. you would have been out of wood and made decent money.

    I am a bit negative on the market and cement stocks for a while. However, with monsoon being over and crops yields looking better, next quarter will be the key. The demand from millions of farmers for cements is much larger than the demand from so called “infrastructure companies” who have no money in their kitty.

    Your holding is too small (valued at Rs 7000 or odd). When the stock dropped to less than Rs 50 fresh buying of 150 shares would have cost you as much (Rs 7500 then). It would have been worth Rs 28000 against overall investment of Rs 14500, that is, you would have gained by 100% in less than 3 years or 33% per year.

    Hold it for 3 months. If the market does not correct as much as I expect, you stand to make some sandwich money out of your holding. It is a very good company. So stay put.

  262. Ok Sir, no issues, but at least i would ask from investoer point of view in IOC, which I haven’t added in my portfolio,
    Should I add now, given fact that my dad already have around 4K ?
    or should i switch to ucobank, satyam etc, and should I add them now or wait till deep ?

    sorry if you felt wrong, but , why i asked of nifty short was bcoz, as we are expecting correction, i dont want to feel of missed the bus again, as in the market, for a capitalist, every move either up or down, is an opportunity.

    Regards,
    $amir, Mumbai 10/07/2010

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    There are always specialists for short term trading and long term trading. Yes, I can make good money even in short term, but it requires constant attention and one has to glue to the screen.

    This is why I am not advising, Your mental set up will be different than other readers, and if I advise you based on your thinking and they try to act on their own based on my advice to you, the end result will be devastating. It could be highly rewarding too.

    I find hundreds of analysts on Bloomberg and CNBC advising all viewers of their opinions on short term trading range of stocks and NIFTY. These analysts are excelling in short term scenario. You may better follow them rather than me. I am not as good as they are.

    there is nothing like missing a bus in capital market. If one bus is missed, other is following later. There are hundreds of buses and trains.

    Many years ago, when I was still a college student, a giant board used to be displayed near VidyaVihar Station by Nathani Steel Yard with beautiful slogans. Your simily of missing bus reminds me of one of the slogans which reads as under:

    “IF YOU WANT TO CATCH A DESIRED TRAIN IN TIME, TRY TO CATCH ONE IMMEDIATELY BEFORE”

    That sums up my approach as “pre-emptive investor” and others as “reactive investors”. I also lose at times, but the kind of money I make from my long term investing is so much that occassional losses looks like “peanut” to me. I consider overall money made, not try to make money in every trade. Most people lose money because they try to make money in every trade.

  263. Dear Sir,
    The news is that Tech Mahindra will start the process to merge outsourcer Mahindra Satyam with itself by mid-November.
    From your last few replies, I understand that you have a notion that Tech Mahindra is going to merge into Satyam.
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/infotech/software/Tech-Mahindra-Satyam-merger-to-start-Nov-Exec/articleshow/6653175.cms
    Please see the news link.
    Thanks,
    -Santosh, Bangalore, India

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    Thje press reports are often confusing. I could not locate formal and official announcement either from Tech Mahindra or Satyam regarding the take over – who takes over whom and who merges into whom.

    The face value of Tech Mahindra is Rs 10 whereas it is just Rs 2 for Satyam. Further, Satyam is almost twice the size of the Tech Mahindra.If TM shareholders wants more of Satyam, then TM will have to merge into Satyam because TM will have to be split 1:5 to work out proper swap ratio with Satyam. If Satyam is to merge into TM, it will have to arrange “reverse split” of 5:1 to bring it on par with TM.

    I have gone through the official corporate announcements on NSE and find that number of stock options have been issued to the Satyam and TM shareholders. It means that the insiders are having some information that we do not have.

    All in all, I am taking a chance with Satyam. Whether it is TM into MS or MS into TM, I am not bothered because the combined entity is going to be much stronger one than TM alone or MS alone.

    I also suggest to all readers not to read too much into merger and swap ratio. We do not know or going to know how swap ratio and merger process will be decided. Also, I request all readers to go through official announcement from the respective companies as guide rather than relying on sketchy and unauthenticated information from the press sources or other media.

    If some one is worried that a fiasco is going to happen similar to RNRL-RPOWER merger, then they should reduce the position in Satyam by 80% and then buy back after official merger announcement and swap ratio.

    I am not worried. For me, TM 2 MS or MS 2 TM is not going to matter much. All investors should focus on real value of the enterprise, the prospects and future earning power of combined entity and not on small arithmatics like swap ratio or otherwise. You are reading same material as I am reading, so my opinion is as good as yours.

  264. Dear Sir,
    Please suggest me if I can short Oct Nifty tomorrow , and long IOC 1 lot Oct or Nov ?

    Regards
    Samir, Mumbai 10/07/2010

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 07, 2010
    No advice on F&O. You know my position, do not expect me to rehearse it all the time.

  265. Sir,
    Can you throw some light on Mahindra Satyam (MS) – Tech Mahindra (TM) merger ? How will the swap ratio will be calculated ? Let us say TM is at Rs. 700 and MS is at Rs. 100. If the share holders of TM get 7 shares of MS for each share of TM, and after the merger if MS share shoots up to Rs. 300, then both TM and MS shareholders gain will be 200%. Without the merger, TM shareholders wouldn’t have gained so much. Is this right ?
    On the other side, if MS shareholders got 1 share of TM for 7 shares of MS, then after the merger, if the shareholders have to expect a gain of 200%, then TM share will have to shoot to Rs. 2100, which would be unlikely. Am I missing something ?

    Chetana,
    Bangalore, India

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 07, 2010
    Your question is hypothetical with regard to reverse merger – that is – Mahindra Satyam merging into Tech Mahindra which is ruled out by announcing the merger other way round. Even ADRs are getting delisted on same reasons.

    With regard to SWAP ratio, while current market price is very important guide (they take last 6 months average price, not just last few days). Also, they consider the EPS of each company, additional sum expended by the taking over company, debt obligations undertaken etc. If the taken over company is undercapitalized, the EPS may look higher due to lower base of equity, but its debt load could be higher than the taking over company.

    It is better not to speculate over such matters. There is no point in breaking head over Swap ratio and how and why should it be this way or that way. Deal with the situation as it comes.

    The fact of the matter is that TM is merging into MS, not other way round. it means that TM considers MS more valuable than its own enterprise. Further, MS is virtually a debt free company with over Rs 2000 crores in cash (almost Rs 38 per share). TM share holders should get less than what their stock prices would otherwise suggest.

    To me, TM shareholders should not get more than 5 shares of MS having regard to thousands of crores of cash being available that might reduce TM debt, and brighter earning prospect. To me, Mahindra Satyam, although tainted with scandal, is more valuable enterprise than TM itself.

    In that case, MS shares should gain or TM shares have to drop. The best possibility is that MS shares will gain to TM CMP/Swap ratio or Rs 780/5 (if they agree with me) = Rs 156 (+/- 10%).

    SWAP ratio is usually decided by TM appointing an independent Auditor or Investment Banker representing minority interest, that is, MS shareholders. How is it being done in India, I do not know.

    All said and done, MS or Mahindra Satyam is a valuable enterprise. Wait for quarterly result if you want to play very safe. I buy now, not later. If I am proved right, I will have First Strike advantage.

  266. Dear Sir,

    As we can see that silver has reached 35k in India . Your target is 1lac per kg. Even if it reaches 50k per kg in India it is very expensive. How many people in india will afford if it really reaches 1lac per kg. Also for gold if it reaches 45k per 10 gms, it is expensive for common man.

    Though india is biggest consumer of gold, if people dont have money to buy at these high prices, wont it come down.

    regds
    Sameer
    Pune
    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 07, 2010
    You look at the prices from absolute point. you have to see the relative value. When I left for Hong Kong in 1984, the gold prices were very low. Our salary was just Rs 2000 per month as senior officer in a bank.

    Today, the officer in our category draw more than Rs 30,000 per month. that is 15 times or gain of 650%. Rupee dropped significantly byt almost 80% that causes the price rise in India more due to weaker rupee.

    We found difficult to save Rs 100 per month in 1984 whereas many people spend this sum on coffee alone in a flash.

    The people buy metals like Gold and Silver as store value and also as safe investment. This is the only investment product that even a layman understands. Investing in gold and silver need common sense, not the advice of analysts or brokers.

    The people will buy gold even at Rs 45,000 per 10 grams. Indians have money, so gold will look at your pocket and ask you to spend more.

  267. Kingfisher Rally
    Sir,
    Do you think correction started as market started fallen today?
    Few analysts telling IFCI to go 78 also, do you advise to hold till 78 before 15th or to sell at 72 w.r.t your replies to others.
    What is your view on kingfisher airlines as some news generated and stock is in rising phase. It is overtaking Spice jet too.
    Thanks and Regards,
    Krishna,
    Hyderabad

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 07, 2010
    One day fall does not lead to conclusion. The fall today was steep which does not portray good picture. The market recovered from initial 180 days fall and then went in for free fall later. It recovered later but again faltered to retain gains. It means that selling pressure is developing. Next few days might dictate the course of events for next week.

    It is the first wicket that has fallen. We have 9 more to go. Keep selling into strength and do not buy anything at all.

    IFCI is getting higher due to rotational switch. there does not appear to be real news behind it. It may show good profits for 2QSep10 quarter. It did go to 72 and then dropped with the market suggesting that the stock does not have enough strength of its own. Still it is better to hold and go on selling with every rise of Rs 3 increment. We may not have enough time to wait longer to achieve the figure of 82 which target we may or may not achiev.

  268. Thank You Anilji,

    Your advise is an eye opener, I would like to know if I should retain RSYSTEMS Number of shares 2455 Bought at 162.86 CMP 99.05, I have worked with this organization for long. Should I swap this with Satyam?

    Also I have 88 shares of IOC Bought at 442.19 CMP 424.00. Please let me know if I should hold it.

  269. dear sir,
     
    i hv read your artical abt gold and silver my quary is i am having a 10 kg gold sell at the avg of 18710 will market give me a chance to clear my postions if yes then wat wud be the time frame as ur targets for gold and silver are pretty high do u really expect ur tgt to come by dec 2012 if yes shud i reverse my position if yes on what rate pls pls do tell me
    Nitish Ranjan Mishra
    New Delhi
    011-43074787
     
    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 07, 2010
    Not sure what kind of gold you have sold – I presume it is future contract. Normally, I do not advise on F&O position because it has number of variables.

    right now, Gold is working against you whereas Rupee is working in your favour. The physical momentum in gold is really good. Gold has not advanced as yet in leaps and bounds. that day will come soon once it crosses $ 1385 level and stays there for at least 3 days.

    If dollar gains, gold will lose in dollar terms. However, Rupee also will lose which will dampen the effect of fall in prices in gold in rupee terms. You have to follow US$ Index being traded in Comex. (www.ino.com). the net effect on gold prices in India will depend on the intensity of each factor.

    Gold is due for some correction, but may not correct below $ 1285. It is possible only if Dollar regains at least 4% against all currencies which possibility is less. Rupee may also fall by 3% which may negate the effect of lower $ prices in gold.

    Buy back your position in correction. The correction is not going to be severe, so do not wait long. Alternatively, you may buy Call options (20% of your present short position) which are trading on COMEX – not sure about its trading in India on MCX.

    Then, when the gold rallies strongly, sell the call options and at the same time sell short of gold at that time only. When the gold falls to please you, then you may buy back latest short position. At the same time, you may buy again call options.

    Open an account with SAXO Bank (www.saxobank.com) which offers excellent platform in trading currencies and commodities with lots of research and real time prices with minimum spread. This bank also offers call and put options for extended period not available in India.

    When you assume short or loing position on leveraged basis (derivatives) you should have platform for hedging, There should never be absolute naked short or long positions – always trade with 20% hedging positions in options. This will help you operate both ways.

    The future economic crisis will start from Gold, Silver and from India where the stocks would undergo severe correction that will bring down global markets.

    Silver alone will cause some banks to fail or cause enormous problems for those banks. The banks are HSBC, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, and UBS

  270. Dear Sir,

    I want to buy IOC and HPCL. In one of your answers to Nipi, you are saying

    “Yes, but I would wait for IOC and HPCL to come out with the quarterly numbers first before selling. ”

    Do you mean to say if results come good , price will increase and vice versa. CMP for IOC is 422 and HPCL 514.
    Can i buy at these 2 shares now or wait for correction.

    Regds
    Sameer

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 07, 2010
    Wait for correction by about 7% in both of these stocks. If the results are good, nothing wrong in buying at slightly higher prices. If the result points to higher trend, my objective of gaining 300% in 3 years will be achieved.

  271. Respected Sir

    the date of your answers  has wrongly reflect 2009 instead of 2010. May be your computer date need to be correct.

    With Regards

    Renu Khanna
    New Delhi, India

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 07, 2010
    Yes, you are right. When my computer broke down (no display), I replaced the battery, and also rubbed the RAM contact points with pencil rubber. I reinserted the RAM and it worked. I forgot to update the date. It is not done. Thanks for drawing my attention.

  272. Dear Kalidasji,
                       I had invested a pretty amount of my savings in share market from JUN’09 (as per FREE recommendations of ANALYSTS) and currently at huge loss. A welwisher of mine initiated me to seek advice from you.The stocks after bonus/split (wherever applicable) with purchase price,present price and numbers as below –

    RCOM – 333      182      nos. 100

    STERLITE – 233      177     nos. 100

    RENUKA SUGAR – 120      86     nos. 190

    TULIP TELECOM – 200       187      nos. 75

    NHPC(IPO) – 36      34       nos. 600

    JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES – 165       138      nos. 50

    Now what are the best prices can be achieved in next 1 or 1.5 years from today to sell this each materials to get back my money with minimum losses.I donot want to reinvest to make up and just fly away from this share market and will never come again.

    Thanks and regards

    Tridip
    KOLKATA, WEST BENGAL
    07-10-2010   1:50PM IST

  273. Respected Anilji

    If possible please provide answer for my query(01/10/2010).  

    With Regards

    Renu Khanna
    New Dellhi, India

    Kalidas says…Thursday, October 07, 2010
    Replied today under same date.

  274. Dear Kalidasji,
    Can you please advice on following Portfolio?
    Jaiprakash Power 200 @54 CMP 68

    Donear Industries 600 @ 36  CMP 31.5

    TATA Steel 25 @ 601 CMP 671

    HINDALCO 25 @ 209 (Year 2008) CMP 215

    Regards,
    Yogesh Khandagale
    Bahrain

    Kalidas says…Friday, October 08, 2010
    Do not know much about Donear Industries. For the Resf of the stocks, SELL ALL during next 7 to 10 days.

  275. Dear Anil Sir,
     
    We are eagerly waiting for your next article.
    Thanks.
     
    Parag
    Surat

  276. Hi Kalidasji,
    Gold and Silver price has of lately augmented a lot. I am a buyer of gold at 17k 50g, 18.5k 50g and silver 29k 3Kg. Looking forward to add more of silver. Since I was waiting for a correction in shraadh which didn’t happen much could I move forward and buy more in spite of the price rise or any correction to set in near future?
    Regards
    Ashish (Mumbai)
    India

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Always buy in correction. If the prices go very high in short termm book profit in that case, selling not over 50% of your inventory.

  277. OCT 15
    Sir
    It may be a silly question. But why are we expecting market to crash after Oct 15? Any events?

    Manjunatha Shetty
    Bangalore India
    OCT 06 2010

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    We are going to be in earning reporting season.

    1. With rise in interest rates, the profits of major banks are going to come down heavily – they are losing over 10% on their bond investments.
    2. further, Mark to Market rule has been effective from 1st August, 2010 which may force every company to report all their losing derivative transactions at the market price which is Zero. it all depends whether this rule will be implemented with all sincerity of course. This will cause corporate earnings to crash heavily with leading blue chip companies and banks suffering the most.
    3. thirdly, the market is simply rising with no fundamentals to support – it is getting into higher stratosphere. Higher inflation will cause also higher interest rates.
    4. The oil prices are also rising – they are up by 10% – which may force local companies to raise the prices again. It will again prop pup the inflation and interest rates. It may cause severe drop in housing and auto sectors which are heavily interest rate dependent.
    5. There is simple casino type operations in Future and Option segments. The turnover has risen to unbelievable heights – almost 150% up than what it was in January, 2010

    The timings of all these events are going to converge from 3rd week of October. give and take 10 days more.

    This is of course my opinion. I gave this date in advance judging the upward momentum to peak. It has happened already, so why reverse should not happen when the fundamentals are against?

  278. Dear Kalisdasji,

    As you are aware Satyam is going to delist from NYSE and be relisted on OTC. I made some calls with the stock exchanges and understand that it will be listed as Pink Sheet where the liquidity is expected to be much lower than NYSE, simply because

    a) many investment banks do not like to invest in pink sheet stocks as a matter of policy AND

    b) also there will be only 1-2 broker dealers as market makers (versus quite a few when listed on NYSE).

    Bottomline, this means that the stock will fall to some extent post delisting due to lack of liquidity. The only reason the stock has fallen till date in the last 2 weeks is because investment banks are not interested to invest in Pink Sheet stocks. Yes, quarterly results will be out on November 15, but then how can you expect upward price movement if investment banks don’t buy in huge amounts and Satyam continues to be bought only by retail investors??

    This would simply mean that the stock would languish as a pink sheet stock till it gets relisted on NYSE – which will be only after US GAAP results are published after 6 months and other NYSE listing criteria are satisfied (which would mean some class action suits being resolved etc). 

    As a strategy to invest, it might be better to do so on the Indian stock exchange rather than as ADR. Unless, you believe that the ADR price would reflect Indian stock price (and that investors would buy it to bring it to parity). I do NOT expect any premium on ADR pricing until US GAAP results are published.

    Your thoughts please?

    Thanks,

    Chandni
    Austin, TX

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Fully agreed. you asked the questions and also answered it which would have been answered by me.

    The current listing on pink sheet is only transitory one. It is done to avoid the US GAAP reporting. Once the accounts are in place, it will be relisted on OTC (higher level as NASDAQ) rather than NYSE.

    Until such time, the ADRs might slide into discount. If that is so, it is better to buy ADRs at discount and hold. Yes, from liquidity point of view, investing straight into domestic stock is better option.

    Since I am experienced in ADRS and its conversion into domestic stocks, I would prefer ADRs for myself. ADRS can trade at premium which multiplies the gains. However, for the time being, focus on domestic stock.

  279. Hello Kalidasji,

    Please let me know if I am thinking correctly
    Scrip        Qty     Avg      CMP
    RNRL        3500     63      41 – Hold
    IFCI        1000     55       68 – Sell around 72
    Spicejet   1500     56      77  – Sell around 18th Oct
    BPCL      100       653     757 – Sell around 18th Oct
    IOC        300     416       421 – Sell around 18th Oct
    HPCL      190     492      516  – Sell around 18th Oct
    Cairn      250    366       342  Hold and add around 300

    Would request if you can reply before your next time out.

    Regards
    Nipi
    Washington DC

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Yes, but I would wait for IOC and HPCL to come out with the quarterly numbers first before selling. Even if you want to sell, retain at least 30% of position.However it looks like you entered these stocks much after its fast run recently. Neverrtheless, they are in my opinion, the best investments in decades.

    And 18th October is a special date for me at least. It is my and my wife’s birthday. We were born on same day but different years.

  280. Dear Sir,
     
    After a long I am writing back. I am  silently observing .
     
    My quarries are
     
    1.  Today I read an article and the link is  provided.
    http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-the-federal-reserve-is-selling-paper-gold-and-buying-physical-gold.aspx?article=3138453684G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Rob+Kirby
     
     I am not able to catch what the author wishes to tell. Will you please clarify?
     
    2. I expect Gold Silver ratio at 55 before 31.12.2010 and  thinking of adding further 5 Kgs of  Physical Silver bars at today’s rate (INR 34600 per KG + INR 250 as charges per KG in my town).

    3. What may be the target for GOLD, Silver and USD-INR rate by end December 2010.
     
     I request to guide me in this regard.

     

    With regards
    Manivannan K
    Cuddalore – Tamilnadu-India
    05.40 IST / 07.10.2010

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    1. The Author himself is not so clear. May be it is American English. What appear to be he is driving at is that FED has run out of physical gold and is selling the paper instead. In short, the FED who has shorted the gold for years, is boomranging on it. It may soon have to cover the short or else write off the inventory. Read my chapter on Gold in my book “Sub Prime Resolved” What this author is hinting at was mentioned by me months ago (more than 1 1/2 years by now) in clear terms.

    2. Gold to Silver Ratio will go to less than 40 in less than 6 months. When the momentum gains, the silver prices will rise at the fastest pace. This is why I mentioned in one of the reply that the time will come when the Silver prices will rise by Rs 4500/kg in a day. It is beginning to happen – only a day before the Silver prices rose more than Rs 1000/kg.

    3. My targets are pretty well known and given in the form of full article – Gold $6400, Silver $80″ published several months ago.

    In India, the gold will rise to Rs 45,000/10 grams and Silver Rs 1 lakh / kg in less than 18 months. I will start selling when I am within 20% of my targets.
     

  281. sir,
    I have forwarded a copy of the earlier mail that i had sent to your emid. This is to save you the troube of having to rummage through the hundreds of mails. expecting to hear from you.
    regards
    vivard(haridas) kerala.

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    I will locate it. First I had trouble with Photon of TATA Telecom and than small break down. I have fixed everything.

    I am not getting hundreds of mails. so do not worry. I will reply later. I have replied more than 60 queries today alone. I have some other work to do as well.

  282. Dear Anil sir,
     
    After long time I am posting my query here. I would like to pursue masters in mechanical Engineering for that I am need of $30000.
    My plan is to complete this degree course in 3 years(part time). Right now I have $7000 cash.
    Can I invest this into Indian share market by using systematic investment technique?
    I would divide $7000 into 10 parts and start investing each part say $700 per month . — is this good technique?
    Will  you please suggest me top 3 shares that could triple-quadruple in 3 years to recover my educational expenses.
    Thanks in advance for your help.
     
    Best Regards,
    Tushar Patel.
    Chicago USA.

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Invest in very safe dividend paying promising stocks like IOC, HPCL, BPCL and MRPL. Also buy some of Essar Oil and CAIRNS

    If you invest in above stocks, the possibility is that you will recover 75% of your fees in less than 6 years from now on in the form of capital gains and dividend.

  283. Dear Ashish and Dongre,

    I know that this is not the forum to initiate topics of mutual interests but I cannot resist the temptation of writing to both of you. Having been in the service sector for the last more than 30 years, I am completely burnt and don’t enjoy the job any more.
    I am seriously interested in modern farming particularly in flowers and vegetables. Dongre – thks for HTC information. Can we keep in touch? It will be mutually beneficial.
    We shall be thankful to Anilji for providing this forum of meeting.
    Please send your email id so that we may write separately.

    Rajesh
    Delhi
    6th October 2010

  284. Dear Anilji,

    I am in great trouble and need your valuable opinion. I have short sold Nifty @ 5000 against my entire equity holdings and have been paying the losses till date and carrying over the position. The loss is quite substantial and in excess of Rs.50 lacs. Should I carry out the position further. Do you expect that markets will come down and I shall be able to see the Nifty @ 5000?

    Thanks for your valuable advice.

    Delhi
    India
    6th October 2010

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    You appear to be following wrong tactics in futures and options. This is why I never even voice opinion on this sector because most participants do not have basic idea how to play this sector.

    Yes, I do believe that the NIFTY may crash to even less than 5000 in a few months but the present momentum may lead it higher by a few points here and there.

    In stead of meeting margin calls, you could have sold more at higher level to average up your price. You could then use the higher short price of NIFTY to make good gains. Even a slight puncture in present rally will cause a huge crash.

    The trouble with your position is that you borrowed against your existing equity. if you were bearish, why did you pledge your shares to take short position on NIFTY? You have locked yourself up. Yes, short NIFTY position might get you higher return but if the market crashes, your equity position would also get hurt seriously.

    Since you are in advanced stage of gambling, by losing almost everything. the best thing to gamble is to sell even more of NIFTY on rally from current level which may come about today because of higher GDP forecast of India by IMF.

    Treat each position as separate trade.Do not count on averages. It will make you take correct decision on individual trade.

    NIFTY is on the verge of crashing. Since you have waited so long, wait for a few more days, say 7 to 10 days.

    One should not maintain short term position after more than 10% loss in capital. At the most 20%, because it is easy to make uu 10% out of remaining 90% capital.

  285. Sir, Do you think dollar is going to collapse.
    Is it still good to get in gold as I was waiting for some correction in Shrad time.
    Ravi, Dubai,06/10/2010

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Dollar is already collapsing. However, it is treasury game to talk up the other Asian currencies and then paper trade dollar to sudden rally so that the people lose heavily, so that they never remain in bear cartels permanently.

    Always buy in strong correction. Even the gold and silver may be bought in strong correction only. If you hold any position right now, enjoy the ride and go on selling slowly to make some short term gains.

    Any investment, if shows rises by more than 15% in short run of about a month or so, is worth selling. No sentiments need be attached. Any investment product, including gold and silver, are not as loyal as your wife and children to whom you stay attached at all times. Investment means it is to be sold one day when the strong rises are seen in their prices.

  286. Dear kalidas sir, i sold my orchid pharma and other shares. Right now i am holding 30 lakhs cash. Require your kind advise to which stock can i invest.
    Thanks  and regards
    Ravi, Chennai,  India

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Buy 1000 shares of IOC, 1250 shares of MRPL and about 6000 shares of ZeeNews. Hold rest in cash.

  287. Regarding Saravottam Kumar quoted:

    Bots are nothing but the automated programs(in computer science). It general, it s the software which can browse,collect data and analysis the websites without the need of human beings.
    You would have seen “captcha” while signing up any form.. it’s to avoid the bots(as they re nt intellectual).. to ensure only human beings can log in…
    In simple, bots are like robots.

  288. Gold at Historic high
     
    Gold is shining at its record high.  Thanks for your timely advice to buy into physical gold.  There are some few interested reads which are already predicted by you.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69520P20101006
    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6943X820101005
    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6932NR20101004
    http://www.commodityonline.com/news/How-US-administration-is-pushing-up-gold-prices-32155-3-1.html
     
    Sundaram Sivakumar, Chennai (India)

  289. Dear Sir,
    I hope All is well at your end. Please assure us.
    Regards
    Suraj
    Panchkula
    India

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 06, 2009
    My computer broke down again, although I was away and returned on Monday. It is fixed but I am on travel move from today. I will answer all queries by tomorrow.

  290. sir,
    Waiting eagerly to hear from you. hope you will be back in a day or two. wishing you a wondeful time where ever you are.
    regards
    vivard(Haridas) kerala.

  291. sir,

    i want to read your all comments for specific shares investments.

    pls inform how i will get from 2009.

    dilip adani

  292. hello sir….i hold 1600 shares of satyam @ 112 and want to buy more…at wat price shud i enter (cmp 91.20)…shud i sell all my satyam holdings as well before 15th october and buy after correction or do u think the fall in satyam will be less than the overall market..???
    Pawan
    Jodhpur,India

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Look, even Satyam will correct in market correction, but Satyam will outperform the market by yards. That is, it will fall less than the market. No need to sell Satyam now. Enjoy your stay with Satyam for the time being.

  293. Hi Ashish,
    Best wishes for your new venture!!
    It would be best if you attend a 5 day course/workshop at HTC (Horticulture Training College, promoted by Maha Govt)Talegaon(dabhade) on Mumbai-Pune highway. They have a hostel there and fees is inclusive of lodging/boarding. Rooms are not 5-star but Okay. If possible take collapsible mosquito net with you. Web link is here – http://www.htcindia.org/courses.html .You are thinking of Tomato and other such crops hence this advice. I attended beginning of this year. You would get realistic numbers when you attend a course.
     
    I suggest you to go for some exotic vegetables like colored capcicum/Zucchini etc.
    If possible keep in touch, because I am trying to walk the same line despite the opposition from friends/family.
    Dongre Mumbai, India Oct 5/2010

  294. Sir,
    A very nice article about how China is saving Euro / Greece.
    http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Geopolitics___Eurasia/China_Euro_pe_/china_euro_pe_.html
     
    Regards
    Badrinath
    Bengaluru, India

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Thanks. China is acting as buffer for the Europe. Because of China’s actions, US pressuring it to let Yuan rise. China is helping Eurozone from military standpoint too. It wants some strong opposition to dollar domination, and Europe is one of the buffer zone.

  295. Dear Sir
    I am investing in foreign currency. Which do you think a better bet on 2-3 year horizon? USD, EUR, GBP or AUD?
    Thanks and regards,
    Sudhir

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 06, 2009
    At the moment, it is all Australian Dollar. Rest of all three economies are in shambles with Euro performing slightly better.

    Still my choice is for Australian dollar, Canadian Dollar.

  296. respected Sir,
    please advise me reg sakthi sugars purchased by me 1 year ago @97/- CMP61/-
    BSE: 507315   |   NSE: SAKHTISUG   |   ISIN: INE623A01011
    thanks for your true & selfless service and kindness,
    madhu(badri),chennai,india
    04.10.2010

  297. Anil ji,

    You had mentioned that Satyam is excluded from your ‘Sell on or around 15th Oct’ call. Does that also get applicable to TechM?

    I have added 200 of TechM at 710 (in recent rally) along with 1960 satyam (avg price 109).

    Regards,
    Rahul R
    London, United Kigdom

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 06, 2009
    NEVER COUNT ON AVERAGES. Treat each deal as a separate deal. Once you understand this one line, you will never lose.

    Stay with Satyam. Tech Mahindra is going to mege into Satyam anyway, so why invest into them. Selll all Tech M and buy only Satyam.

    My sell call applies to all, but since Satyam quarterly will be out within next 15 days and the stock is at bottom range. I will not be aggressive in selling unless there is a rally.

  298. Dear Sir,

    Detailed results of the Mahindra satyam is out, here is the link

    http://mahindrasatyam.com/investors/documents/afr_2009_2010.pdf

    Could you please elaborate on further course of action.

    I am holding 3000 @ 101.80, another 3000 @ 93.45 Rs., CMP 89.50 and i can continue to hold for another 2 years, I can also invest more once your final guidance is known.

    regards,
    Sneshan,
    Alger, ALGERIA

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 06, 2009
    Stay on course. If the stock does rally and market risk being more than ever, do sell some to book profit if you are in. you can always buy back later.

  299. Sir

    How high can Uco Bank go in this madness?
    You had mentioned 200+ target once.Is this achieveable in the next couple of months?

    Regards
    Princeofindia
    Abu Dhabi

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 06, 2009
    No but in long term it could, but since I am negative on banks where storm is gathering in thick clouds. almost all banks will lose.

    Further, the buying in banking stocks is not due to growth story but more due to rotational switch. Among banks IDBI bank has still some more room to move higher. But I am so negative on the sector, i will let it pass.

  300. Dear Kalidas Sir

    http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

    China has slowed down and have marginally cut their exposure on US Treasuries.. but what makes India to again turn buyers..? Does it make sense in any way ?

    Thanks and Regards

    NSri
    Pune, India

    Amul is cheaper in India. Our leaders still like white ass.

  301.  

    Hi Ashish,
    Best wishes for the new venture, if you decide to proceed with it.
    To be on the safer side, it might be better to share such detailed infos on your savings & asset allocation in private. I guess Kalidasji has a email ID though I don’t have it handy right now.
    Regards,
    Aby Philip
    Bangalore

     

  302. Dear Mr. Anil,
                 I am a retired MAHARATNA PSU employee and have followings in my portfolio.

    Sl. No./Name/Buy Price(Rounded)/Qty./CMP(Rounded)

    1/TCS/773/50/960 –
    K ViewHOLD

    2/TATA STEEL/480/50/670- K View SELL ALL

    3/HINDALCO/145/60/205 – K View SELL ALL

    4/CIPLA/300/40/325 – K View Buy more

    5/STRIDE ARCOLAB/240/30/430 K View o opinion

    6/GVK POWER/53/100/47 – K View seless share. Never invest. get out since quantity is so small.

    7/SAIL/190/45/220
    K View SELL around Rs 240 or about and switch to Ispat at that time.

    Are these stocks may be sold after 7th OCT ’10 (as per your evaluation market will go down heavily) and buy back at bottom levels or should I go for new scrips like IOC,SATYAM after correction.

    Thanks in advance for your valueable suggestion.

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 06, 2009
    Yes, See my reply against each stock. Go for IOC and Satyam instead of the stocks you owned. They are better bets than anything else.

  303. Sir,
     
    I am contemplating a career shift – from being a Senior Level Manager (outside India) to being an Agriculturalist (in India).
     
    I have been weighing the pro’s and con’s of this decision for the last 18 months and have the following observations:
     
    1)      Change will mean I and my wife will have to relocate to India from Qatar by Dec’10.
    I will devote my full time for next 2 years to make this venture work.
     
    2)      Change will have tremendous immediate negative effect on my income levels.
    Monthly Income will drop down from around INR 5 lakhs (current) to around INR 40,000 monthly (from my passive income sources in India) for almost 2 years, after which I should have established a minimum yearly agricultural income of around INR 25 lakhs (from our 20 acres of agricultural land in Konkan region (Mandangad, Ratnagiri/Raigad border, around 250Km from Mumbai), Maharashtra, India (Normal crops in this region are Alphonso Mangoes, Cashew, Coconuts and Rice. I think spices like pepper will grow well, but for first 2 years I will concentrate on Tomatoes & Potatoes for generating quick returns).
     
    3)      Final Payoff is extremely lucrative.
    Reasonable expectations point to an annual tax free income around INR 60 lakhs (i.e. 20acres x (75% usable assumed) x 4 lakhs per acre = 60 lakhs) after say 7 years (I know your INR 7 lakhs per acre yardstick, but I am just a student of agriculture at this stage). Thus I can hope to match /exceed my current income level, eventually.
     
    4)      I might be happy with my work again.
    Both I (engineer) and my wife (doctor) have high paying but extremely stressful jobs. I used to enjoy working in a demanding environment, but that was when I was ‘young’. I still enjoy my work because I am good at it, but I feel burned out and old at 37 years of age and know that I should do more with my life.
     
    I have consistently saved around 80% of my income and being your student for some years now, have around 2Kg of Gold, 30Kg of Silver, almost 25 lakhs invested in IOC, HPCL, BPCL and MRPL (more than 45% of this is in IOC) + 15 lakhs in various other counters (most are your recommendations and all have been extremely profitable) which I am steadily selling as an when the situation demands. I further have INR 50 lakhs as my core savings (most in 5 year Australian dollar FCNR account + 10 year NABARD zero coupon bonds).
     
    I have managed the basic development of our land till now (Fencing & Gate, 2 water-wells 20ft diameter 40ft deep, Storage shed, labour quarters, etc) and have budgeted for a further INR 30 lakhs (required in the next 1 year) for building up the irrigation systems, electricity, Farmhouse, etc. (being a Civil Engineer, this is easy for me but requires my presence).    
     
    All my relatives / friends are laughing at my decision, but your opinion is what I am really concerned with.
     
    1)      Do you think I can make this happen.
    2)      Should I take this jump now or do I need a bigger buffer (a further 1 year in my current job)?
     
    Regards,
    Ashish Dandekar, Doha, Qatar  
     
    p.s. – 1) I will email any and all other required details to you separately, in fact I want your ‘professional’ opinion on the matter + processing/packaging/marketing/exporting (please send me email address to be used, was uncertain whether to post this query here or in your ‘Ghost writing services’ section).
    2) Apologies for the lengthy post.
     

  304. Dear Sir,
    I have 1700  satyam shares at avg price of 90.
    CMP of satyam is 90.65.
    Please let me know if i can add more.
    Sunil
    Bangalore India

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 06, 2009
    Not now. Instead buy IOC as diversification. Think of adding more of Satyam after the stock crosses 108 again. You have to catch uptrend to make money.
     

  305. Respected Kalidasji,
     
    OMC/SOE: This is surprising that except you, nobody has recommended these stocks even after decontrol, price increase, positive advance tax data. Even crude price rise can be nullified with rupee appreciation, why your idea has not caught the imagination of the analysts? Policy effect will be definitely seen in the Sept qtr results.
     
    Regards,
    V.S.Kumar, Jorhat

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 06, 2009
    Analysts like the Head and Shoulders (charts), not Heart, Liver or body. Analysts are like migratory birds, they go where they see the green pastures. They want to go whole hog with the publicity and popular opinions. They always advise investors to lose money.

  306. http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Australian-dollar-could-go-beyond-parity-Bloxham-pd20101003-9UV5Q?opendocument&src=rss
     
    Kalidasji,
    Link on AUD based on your earlier predictions in may, that you view AUD could go up to 0.98, it has almost been achieved. What do you see next and what you would advise on who have bought AUD on your recommendations, whether to continue holding it or sell at the visible peak and see if any corrections to buy back…as seems now interest rates holding key for further strengthening of AUD
    Thanks,
    Naren,Guangzhou,China
     

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 06, 2009
    AUD is now more in momentum rally, so stay with it with a view to selling into strong rally from now on. AUD has still 10% upside.
     

  307. Dear Sir,

    On the right upper corner of the page, we see guests, bots and members. I,m just curious about bots. what are bots?

    Regards,
    Sarvottam Kumar,
    Mumbai, India

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, October 06, 2009
    Members means me. and my authorised people (my son only for the time being). BOTS relates to some other websites who log into our website – not sure what does it mean.

  308. Sir,
    Your opinion is required on future of sugar sector in india? Should one wait for buying sugar stocks till end  October 2010 as correction in market is expected ?
    Regards

    arun
    Mumbai ,India

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Yes, wait for 2 more months before entering Sugar stocks. The rainfall has been good for Sugarcane and I saw increased plantation for Sugarcane while transiting through Gujarat by railways.

    Expected market correction, expected higher crop of Sugarcane tells me to wait for about 2 or 4 months more to invest into sugar stocks.

  309. Dear Sir,
                    I bought SATYAM 2000@109 in chasing the same on 21/09/10.shall I average it now at 90 as it is 20% below my original cost or shall I wait for more correction in the script. I want to increase it to 4000 pcs if you agree.
                                                Thanks
                                            Kanhaiya, Lucknow, India   

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    The stocks like Satyam can recover 20% very fast. Unless the stock corrects to 70 or about, there is no point to average down.  

  310.  

    Sir

     

     
    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69112L20101002?pageNumber=2
    China wants to help now PIGS. This is new strategy by China. This will really irritate US. If European countries start taking help from Dragon, Chinese will shift their reserve Slowly from USD to Euro and same time avoid PIGS selling GOLD to US. US is now in Fix right? Or some thing else is cooking up?
    Shiva
    Bangalore
    India

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    China is serving indirect warning to US – STAY OFF the EUROPE. It is in China’s interest to support Europe where it has much larger business stake. US business is on wane and China is quick enough to know that.

  311. hello sir….i hold 1600 shares of satyam @ 112 and want to buy more…at wat price shud i enter (cmp 91.20)…shud i sell all my satyam holdings as well before 15th october and buy after correction or do u think the fall in satyam will be less than the overall market..??? PawanJodhpur,India

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Buy more at 82 or about.

  312. Dear Kalidasa,
    FIIs net buy Rs 29.19bn in equities so far, in the month of September. Such huge buying when the index was at 5400 is confusing. In 2007 the same thing was seen & the INR started appreciating. Are we going to see the repeat of the same now? Is this huge rally part of the currency war taking place?  Your advice will benefit the NRI’s for parking their savings.
    Thanks & Regards
    Mohan
    Qatar

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    I warned about currency war several months ago. Now, the people have started talking about it, including IMF who made similar statement only yesterday.

    Stay with Australian dollar and park some money in British Pounds. Australian dollar pays good interest too.

    Asd NRI return on savings deposit is low. I am getting out of Rupee for the time being. I keep more money in local deposits than as NRI. The interest rates for domestic deposits are much higher. Even after 10% TDS, the net Yield is still great.
     

  313. Sir,
    You have mentioned about a crash between Oct 7 & 15. Last time you did that (Jan 21), you were SPOT ON! . Whats the reason behind expecting this crash now?. What major global event is scheduled in october? – anything to do with Spain?. Pls enlighten us.
    Thanks
    Raghav
    Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Last time, most of the manipulators were away. This time around, practically every government is conscious of market fall and its reverberating effect. In fact, there are many security guards around the small treasury after initial theft.

    I was right in projecting the dates. The markets did rally and might hit saturation point from now on. As suggested earlier, giant crash will start from India as epicenter.

    Further, I did not say that the crash happen between 7/10 and 15/10. I only asked to get out between these dates when the prices would be near the peak. The actual correction may be taking place within short time from third or fourth week onwards.

  314. Sir

    What impact do you think the Hpcl bhatinda IPO will have on the share price of HPCL.

    princeofindia
    Abu Dhabi

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    No idea

  315. Dear Kalidas

    I bought IDBI 5 years back at 85. If it touches it’s 2008 high of 177 should i sell the same when it touches it’s old high?

    If i take the view of a long term investor should i hold to see it reaching 300 in 2-3 years time?

    There is a report in ET that IDBI has holding in bluechip counters.Some of them are

    IDBI Capital (subsidiary) Unlisted 100.0
    IDBI Home Finance (subsidiary) Unlisted 100.0
    Asset Reconstruction Corporation (ARCIL) Unlisted 19.2
    Credit Analysis & Rating (CARE) Unlisted 26.8
    Clearing Corporation of India (CCIL) Unlisted 6.5
    National Securities Depository (NSDL) Unlisted 30.0
    National Stock Exchange (NSE) Unlisted 5.0
    Securities Trading Corporation (STCI) Unlisted 7.3
    SIDBI Unlisted 19.2
    Stock Holding Corporation (SHCIL) Unlisted 17.0
    IFCI Listed 2.4

    There is a possibility of listing of some of these which might reflect in a spike in share price according to some  viewpoint.

    Your views Sir

    Regards
    princeofindia
    Abu Dhabi

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Agreed. IDBI has lot of built im value but it is extremely slow to realize these values. Your cost of Rs 85 must be after accounting for 1:2 Bonus.

    The bank functions like an archaic government institution. Once it gets very dynamic CEO, it will perform much better.

    It is good to hold for another 3 years or so. It also pays good dividend. However, having regard to the highly overvalued market, you can take profit only on 70% on your holdings, retaining the balance for future growth. If the stock comes down significantly, you may buy back those 70% sold earlier.

  316. this one for you mr porous

    Your name does suit you my dear porus
    and your views definitely were quite porous,
    and you have most certainly tried to bore us,
    posting -ve remarks about our guru – so famous,
    i think u got aplenty in return, all in a chorus,
    and hope u learn from the reaction & all the fuss,
    what true following is all about, now u can take ur bus.
    .
    vivard(haridas)kerala.

    Sir,I couldnt access ur site due to connectivity problem, was surprised to read the comments of mr porus and the flow of reactions thereafter. hoping that he keeps his mouth shut in future. Do carry on with your good work as there will always be
    people on the wayside who try to spite and demean. Do march on and thank u for your time.
    vivard.

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Let us avoid personality attack on any reader, King Porus was entitled to his views, so be it. Ignore him if you do not like his views. We have better things to do.

     

  317. Hello All,
    I don’t know why all are bashing King Porus. He did a great favor to me.
    His comments just assured me that there is madness returned to the market.
    Last time when many people literally abusing Kalidas on MMB and some silly shares are scoring all time high. I sold my shares on 10 Jan 2008. So the time has come to do the same.
     
    Thanks King Porus
     

  318. Dear Kalidasji,
    How do you rate WIPRO for long term? Is it a good buy at current CMP 0f 462?
    Your kind advise please.
    Regards,
    Ghanshyam,
    Surat,
    India
    1st Oct 2010

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    I do not follow WIPRO. however, it does seem that Satyam is far better than WIPRO at the CMP

  319. MODEL PORTFOLIO

    Hi Sir
    Can you please give me the list of stocks that you suggest in the Model portfolio for an amount of 4 Lakh rupees.
    If you can list down the stocks and recommanded buy price that would really help.
    Thanks in advance for your help.

    Regards
    Manju
    (Manjunath)
    Bangalore, INDIA
    01/10/2010

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Portfolios are built during severe market correction, not during market top.

    However, Invest upto Rs 150,000 in stocks like IOC, MRPL, Zee News, and Ruchi Infrastructure. Hold rest for sever market correction if you are a long term investor.

    Among banks, I like only IDBI bank at the moment. It may be bought in correction, say at or about Rs 140

  320. Namaste Anil Ji

    I have few question, please provide the answer:

    1) What prompt US market to up is it poor economic data or good economic data. I have seen many a times when data comes bad, Dow rises as analyst said that it will force FED to maintain low interest rate or further enhance easiness. And when market data comes good( monthly/weekly) than analyst see the market is recovering. I am little confused in this, please reply.

    2) IS PE Multiple (Nifty) has relevance in today market scenario?

    3) What will prompt US/BOE/ECB to raise their interest rates?

    Please answer after looking from your visionary eyes that when the markets will start getting bad news on daily basis.

    Thanks & Regards
    Renu Khanna
    New Delhi, India

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Analysts are biggest bunch of liars. None of the companies they work for want to paint gloomy or negative pictures. They are therefore under instructions from top management not to write anything that may rock the boat. Further, if any major broker has expressed some opinion, the analysts of other brokerage firms are under pressure to toe the line of the leading brokers.

    I remember when I was a stock broker. One of our analysts painted gloomy picture on local property market and expressed negative opinion on some developers. This was contrary to opinions expressed by some leading property agency firm in Hong Kong. Some other leading brokers accepted those opinion and painted rosy picture. The analysts at our company was forced to change his recom to toe the line of the others.

    So, when the data are good and the company has some proprietory position in some stocks or bonds, they issue positive recom and the concerned analysts find ways to justify the positive stance, the way a lawyer finds some loophole to save his client.

    2. P/E always have relevance in all markets bear or bull. However, some use past P/E or histoprical P/E to base their recommendations whereas smart brokers use prospective P/E based on expectations.

    3. Nothing. When the financial crisis deepens and there is no more money around, the interest rates automatically go up. When too much money is printed relative to goods or services in circulation, there is hyper inflation which prompts higher rates to control the inflation.

    Stock market is the first indication of inflation. The profit rises because the prices rise, and prices rise because there is inflation. There is nothing like uninflationary growth.

  321. Read Comments:
    I relity if there is layoff again at Mahindra satyam, it will be due to failure of Tech Mahindra to grow business.
    There could be face saving scheme where in to save the excess sernior manager s in Tech Mahindra the people in mahindra satyam (who dont belong to pune and maharashtra)will be sacrificed. After two years if new business is not coming to satyam and Tech mahindra is shows that the team led by Vineet Nayyar (sombdy who grew tech M from 3000 to 20,000 in two years by entering into doubious deals wiht BT Plc) is a failure. Anand mahindradra seems to have recognized that the grit and committment of ground level leader in Hyd based satyam played key role(inspite of bad treatment by new management under gurnani and vineet).

    It is clear the current team led by vineet is goin to complete the 3 year tenure and push off silently with no good contribution.
    Source: http://www.siliconindia.com/shownews/Fear_of_pink_slip_creeps_in_among_Satyam_employees_post_F10_results-nid-72157.html

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    disagreed. Many left Satyam due to scandals. These are history. In take over game, there is always some job attrition and duplications are sacrificed. it is premature to judge that Satyam will not grow, be it with or without mergers.
     
     

  322. Dear Sir,

    I am Planning to invest 10 lacs in Gold.But due to Rupee appriciation i have taken second thought.Kindly guid me if i can invest this money in World Gold Mines Company”s Share.I think when gold prices will rise,Profit of Gold Mines Company will certainly rise and Will reflect in Share Price.Apart from that effect of Rupees Apriciatoin or Depriciation will have least effect on my investment in Gold.

    Purushottam
    Delhi
    01/10/10

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    Gold and Silver will rise faster than Rupee. Further, I am now negative on rupee. So be comfortable in taking position in these metals dueing any correction. They are still good for long term haul. Rest of investment products are in high risk zone.

  323. Have you taken a look at the Reliance Industries subsidiaries in total they amount to 94 according to the website link below and some of the major once are unlisted like Reliance Retail and Reliance Bioscience.
    Could it turn out to be a goldmine I am not a fan of the group and so am not invested. Could you shed some light with your long term analysis and incisive foresight.
    Thanks
    Martin
    Goa India
    http://www.equitymaster.com/outsideview/detail.asp?date=7/14/2010&story=4

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    I do not invest in Reliance group. There are better options. Further, Reliance management is trying to boost the price of its stock by spreading rumors about spinning off its subsidiaries. The total value of the enterprise remain same.

    If you own an apartment with 2BHK, then selling one room reduces the value of remaining property, not enhancing it. Reliance grouo is enhancing the value of its enterprise by printing papers of its subsidiaries. They capitalize on the Indian Investors’ weakness.

    I go for strong companies with real growth in substantive business. I do not say Reliance group is bad, but it is not good for me.

  324. Hello Sir,
    Though everyone of us was expecting correction in September and now we are expecting correction in October, and market has been making new highs since then, so are we keep on postponing our correction dates, or still we are holding on to wind up long positions and stay in cash before 10th ? Why I am asking is , because due to anticipating correction I am not able to participate in market rally and feeling like missed the bus
     
    Regards
    $amir, 10/01/2010

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    I never changed my dates. Read the past comments. One should catch the bus only in the morning and return home in the evening. There is no need to travel in the bus at all time. Only driver and conductor remain in the bus at all time.

  325. Dear Sir,
             you had mentioned in one of the replies that Ispat is a better buy than SAIL/TISCO. can you throw some more light as to why you think so & what kind of value do you see for ispat going forward?. I have 800 shares of ispat @ an average price of 22, CMP is 23.

    Thanks
    Raghav
    Bangalore

    SAIL and TISCO have rallied, Ispat did not. After recent stake sale to UK based company, (Stemcore?) Ispat will have respite. It looks like the initial stake sell is first indication of Stemcore to take over Ispat later on. They will get ready made company in steel industry which may be good for their entry into India.

    Keep some shares of Ispat as strategic long term holding (3 years). It is not great company to own at the moment, but we have to look at the future who will be the suitor. Stemcore could be one.

  326. Sir,
    If time permits Kindly explain “Multiple PE” a term often heard on TV
    Regards
    Ranjana, New Delhi, India

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    It is P/E Multiple not Multiple P/E. When the price of the stock (P) is divided by earnings (E), the result is known as P/E and number is shown as P/E multiple. Both are same.

  327. Dear Sir,
     
    Hope you are doing fine. I have bought 1000 shares of Satyam at 89.30 today. It looks there was orchestrated selling pressure over the last 2 days.
     
    Am feeling confident about picking it up this price. Thanks for all your views over the years.
     
    Take care
     
    Warm Regards
    Vyas, Bangalore, India

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    When you take position, take it with full conviction. You entered a stock with great potential after all uncertainties being over. It should do well. So relax and take some 7 days off to nearby Ooty and Conoor valley.

  328. Sir,
    After the restatement, though many experts have opined that Satyam is good to own, the stock price is declining. What could be the main cause of this ? Is it the fear of an unfavourable swap ratio in the event of a merger with Tech Mahindra? Is the situation different from RNRL-RPL scenario and if so how ?
    We are seeing heavy volumes in trades for the past many days. Shouldn’t this be an indicator of the strength of this stock?
    I have 28000 of Satyam at an average of Rs. 85, invested for a long term. Your valuable thoughts please.
    Chetana,
    Bangalore, India

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    TM-SATYAM is different than RNRL-RPOWER.

    You will make strong gains in your positions because you entered the stock at low prices.

    However, do divert some of your funds into stocks like IOC later. IOC., HPCL, MRPL are much stronger companies with several thousand crores revenue. Trust your money with these companies. Large sum needs large houses.

    At the moment, enjoy your stay with Satyam. Wait for more quarterly updates on Satyam and then decide how much to own and how long. My original opinion remain unchanged for Satyam.

  329. Oil Exploration – Service companies
    Sir,
    This query may be sector specific or stock specific.
    Here, I want to bring into your notice of two oil exploration companies. 1) Shivvani oil  (CMP 460) 2) alphageo (I) Pvt Ltd. (CMP 212). I would like to take your opinion on these two scrips. These two companies were mainly involved in seismic surveys (Shivvani with drilling too) and the most of their business was from ONGC and Oil India. And till now worked only in India. But recently alphageo got project in Georgia and become international player now (which is very good sign). The sector is hammered because of crude price, these companies always grow with respect to E&P companies spending on Oil & Gas exploration and all it depends on crude prices. So what is your prediction and comment on both of these stocks.
    One more fundamental term I need to know about Market capitalization and why this is very low for Alphageo (I) Pvt Ltd (Rs. 108.63 Cr) (BSE CODE 526397). The market capitalization value is very less when compared to cost of equipment and logistics of the company as per my knowledge as I am a Geophysicist. Please give some knowledge about this if you spare time for this small doubt.
    Thanks,
    Regards,
    Krishna
    Hyderabad

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, October 07, 2009
    oil exploration companies are extremely difficult to evaluate. They have long gestation time. Further, they are hyped up when their sectoral product prices show strong rises.

    I did follow Shivvani for a while. However, my view is that when the stocks like IOC, HPCL,. MRPL,BPCL and Oil India (also CAIRNS and ONGC) are on strong recovery cusp where you can make 300% top 500% in 3 years to 5 years, why to go for smaller companies. When Rs 300,000 crores giant like IOC can make money, why bother about others?

    I will however look into those companies you named,. and will voice opinion later. For the time being, we have better companies to invest on large scale, so stay with them.

  330. Dear Kalidasji,
    Satyam is in good Shape.  It is a great turnaround Story.  I guess King Porus doesn’t know anything about Business and Reality.  I guess King Porus must be a MBA(US) and a educated Indian Fool.  I believe He doesn’t even know the Basics of Business and Economics.
    Please publish this comments.   Tell him to read Economic Times which just publishes just Stock Market Data and News and never writes about Economics.
     
    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India

  331. ANNOUNCEMENT
     
    Please note that I will be out of town from 1/10 to 3/10 late afternoon. I will post reply on 3/10 late evening for all pending queries.

    Anil Selarka (Kalidas)
    30/9/2010

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