Financial Wisdom By Kalidas

Dear Sir,
Is it not possible for Mr. Obama to divert attention from core issues this time also? Would his tricky step postpone the tsunami? In that case sensex may rebound quickly?
EKTA MAKHIJA, ORAI, INDIA, 25 January 2010  

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 26, 2010 at 1:36 PM HKST
Pray the Jesus, not Lord Ganesha that he could. American gods do not listen to Indian investors.
                                                                                   

Dear Sir,

I am one more of your silent followers.
I have just read through Tsunami7. It does
not include RNRL in the buy list subsequent
to the correction.

Following your recent message to accumulate RNRL,
I have bought 1500 shares at 68, a piece.
I have reserved cash to buy another 15oo.
Please advice what to do a this point.

Thanks    Indira Assaji , New Delhi, India

SHouls I seel these or hold.

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 26, 2010 at 12:23 AM HKST
RNRL may under perform until court case is decided at Supreme Court. We mention only those stocks under short term where relative strength is higher.

For the time being, sell RNRL 1000 and Buy Spicejet 1200. If you make good money in Spicejet, sell it and switch back to RNRL.

Sir,
In reply to Harish you said that you invest when markets are down 70%. But that phase is over and nobody expects a correction of more than 25-30 percent.
I am a network engineer and I am tired of monitoring the market every day. It is affecting my profession as well. When do you think market will reach a point where one can invest and forget for 10-20 years. Or is it futile for a retail investor to try and time the market and one should just do a SIP in index?
Thanks,
Pawan,
Delhi,India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 26, 2010 at 12:47 AM HKST
Quote properly and in full context. The reader asked me “Can we consider this as your portfolio advice and invest our 100% cash In the above stocks” to which we advised that you invest 100% only when the markets are down about 70%. In normal times, yes, the correction of even 20% could offer good entry opportunity. But we are in highly unstable times.

When Giant banks are failing losing trillions of dollars, it is not normal correction process. This is why we talked about 70% to invest aggressively. It happened in 2008 but then everyone ran away. Very few invested at that time.

Who told you that such stage can not come? They are talking about “double dip recession” , that is, 2008 situation could revisit us soon.

When the markets are highly volatile and dangerous with banks and brokers failing everywhere, with jobs being lost in hundreds of thousands every day, you have to monitor the stocks on regular basis.

If you do not want to monitor the stocks even in uncertain times, take a long term view and invest in good stocks, and forget about the active monitoring. Focus on your job. If the stock drops due to uncertain market, you can buy more if other things remain same for the company invested in. You will be the winner in such cases. A good company always make money.

Dear Sir:

If you recall, I was holding IFCI and wanted to sell at 57/-. However as adviced  , I waited for  68-73/- levels but unfortunately it never went to those levels . I sold off completely at some loss today at 51.7/- as you had cautioned all of us for  a bigger fall to come. ( thinking atleast I could preserve my capital)

Kindly  alert us when   I should re-enter this stock again and at what price?

Thanks & With Regards,

Gaurav Kumar
Mumbai
India

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 26, 2010 at 12:29 AM HKST
We are in dynamic and dangerous market. The situations change overnight. We can only express opinion based on your facts. We can only give strategy and tools which works on medium to short term basis. However, it is not possible for us to spoon feed the readers on moment to moment basis.

We have already given the reassessment about IFCI that it appears to have understated its result by providing for above normal taxation provision. We also mentioned that correct figures will be known only in Annual report. Due to short term perception that IFCI result was less than expected, the stock dropped,whereas the facts were otherwise. We can not make the market, but only help you understand the facts as presented by media.

Our original target still remain same for IFCI. We also mentioned about the present correction for over 2 months and gave specific dates also. However, we can not anticipate how the President Obama would behave. He is the President. Even if we have issued the alert, there is no guarantee that events will happen exactly as mentioned. There are many variables.

It is for the reader to take a decision whether to heed our call or not. You do not have to blame us, because we told you to hold and situation went otherwise.

Dear Sir,

In your latest article  you have suggested some stocks as below at the time of correction.

(1) Spice jet (<56) 
 (2) Ispat Industries (<23)
 (3) Dish TV (<41)
(4) Petronet (<71)
 (5) Evinex (<3.65)
(6) IOC (<270)
(7)IFCI (<43)
(8) UCO Bank (<48)
 (9) LIC Housing Finance
Can we consider this as your portfolio advice and invest our 100% cash In the above stocks.
As I am one of those who is eagerly waiting for your one million portfolio from quite a long time.
Thanks and Regards
Harish
Hyderabad
India

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 25, 2010 at 8:51 PM HKST
No, you never invest 100% when the market corrects just 4%. When the markets or stocks are down 70% from peak, you invest aggressively. Read my past articles. Further, this is not portfolio advice. For that, use the section Portfolio Counsel
 
 

Sir,

Re: Indian Rupee

I am holding some USD in term deposit. Is it the right time to convert to INR or can we see levels above 47.5 /usd in the next two to three months.

Thanks in advance

Shikarth
Indonesia
25 Jan 2010

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 25, 2010 at 5:15 PM HKST
We can not do fine tuning. At the moment, stay with $ deposit. If you want to change the currency, think of Aussie dollar below 0.90. The Indian rupee is a controlled currency. At 47 or above, it will be a good buy

Sir,

What is your view on the below stocks
JVL Agro and Anu Labs
Im holding them for more than six months and am sitting in huge loss. Can i average it.
Thanks in advance

Shikarth
Indonesia
25 Jan 2010
PS: Sorry bothering you… Am asking you since i didnt get a reply for my earlier query dt 20 jan 2010

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 25, 2010 at 5:16 PM HKST
I do not know these stocks. Further, you are asking very vague questions without sufficient info. Please follow the following rule always:

Norm:
To seek advice on any stock, mention (1) stock name, (2) Purchase Date (3) Qty, (4) @Cost and (5) CMP. Symbol not necessary. No reply will be posted if these 5 details are not given.

Dear Sir,
Can I buy RNRL (cmp-68), RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (CMP-1050), ant TTML (cmp-27.5).
I have sold all this three stocks from my portfolio last week and and on an average I am getting 5% return from my selling price.
Please Advice
Basant, Delhi, India

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 25, 2010 at 5:18 PM HKST
No. Don’t trade now. 5% fall is nothing. further, give full details in your query as under:

NORM:
To seek advice on any stock, mention (1) stock name, (2) Purchase Date (3) Qty, (4) @Cost and (5) CMP. Symbol not necessary. No reply will be posted if these 5 details are not given.

Dear Kalidasji,
I am new to this blog, one of my friend introduced me recently. Its really amazing service you are doing. I have got one query to ask, I had recently bought 800 SPICEJET shares @53.5/- intending to add 2000 more after reading you stock observatory column. Shall I proceed to buy on Monday when the market opens, please guide me.
 
Thanks in advance
 
Dilshad P
Oslo, Norway.

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 24, 2010 at 6:06 PM HKST
It is worth buying. There was huge volume. Had it not been there correction in US market on Friday, the stock would open with a bang on Monday. But now, I can not be sure. It will remain strong however. It is really worth buying. You can follow one strategy.

(1) If the stock opens at 68 to 72, take profit and watch the market. If the market continues to fall on Monday to Wednesday, buy on Thursday 2000 or more.
(2) if the stock opens below 56 or so, buy 1000 and watch the market. If the stock drops more, buy 1200 more to have 3000 shares. It all depends on your investment budget.
 

Sirji,

Please don’t think that am bugging you. It would be great if you can provide your expert opinions on the below mentioned stocks. Looking forward to hearing from you.

Thanks a lot in advance.
GSRao,
New Jersey,
USA
———————————————
Emancipated Sir,
Please can you share your views on the below stocks for a Long term investment.
1. Glodyne Technoserve
2. Tidewater Oil India
3. Anuh Pharma
4. Suashish Diamonds
5. Jaicorp
Thanks much in advance.
GSRao,
New Jersey,
USA
Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 18, 2010
No comments. I do not follow the named stocks. If I form an opinion later, I might send you an email.
———————————————–
Thanks much for your quick response, I shall certainly look forward to your expert opinions on the above at the earliest.
Also, by long term I intend to mean that I can remain invested in the above stocks for a year or two at least.
Thanks again,
GSRao,
New  Jersey,
USA

APOLLO TYRES

Dear Anil

Please can you share your thoghts on Apollo tyres CMP 53.80 . It has improved its bottomline on account of two factors…. a. Favorable shift in product mix towards radial tyres that enjoy greater profitability than the normal tyres b. The company’s major raw material rubber, both natural as well as synthetic, not touching the highs seen in FY09 anytime soon

Please can you also throw some light on how Buy Back schemes affect the share price. For e.g Apollo Tyres is hovering betweenRs.47-55 for lomg time. Is Buy back offer for Rs 25 (start date 23 Apr 2009 end date 18 Mar 2010) affecting the price

regards

Pradeep Naique
Mumbai, India
24.01.2010

Dear Anil ji,

Again one of your predictions of Gold is shared by others. Please see the article below.
 
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/views/recommendations/Gold-will-double-in-rupee-terms-on-global-inflation/articleshow/5490257.cms
Regards,
Jay , London , UK
23/01/2010

Dear Anilji:

As focussed and facts said by you and saying always is now started by others……..

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/harvard-economist-warns-second-slowdown-us_437063.html

Regards

Mr. Vora
Mumbai
India

Regards

Sir  your openion on Dish TV results.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-company/earnings/Dish-TV-Q3-profit-slips-to-Rs-76-cr/articleshow/5490061.cms

Shiva, Bangalore India

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 23, 2010 at 9:04 PM HKST
The result is more than satisfactory, and reaffirms my faith in this company. Instead of reading bland newspaper reports, you should read the official version and full details of the Quarterly result as announced. Read the official release of Quarterly Result of the Company for QDec2009

Also, read my original comments about DishTV in stock observatory, which is reproduced for your information.
QUOTE
Stock: DISHTV Symbol: DISHTV.NS CMP: 42.20 Ref: 10-ISO-002 Monday, Jan 11, 2010
Kalidas observes: Bearish phase to end soon – may be profitable by 4Q March 10

After successful raising of capital, company has reduced interest cost by 80%. The company turned profitable before depreciation in 2Q Sep09. 3Q Dec09 should be better than 2Q. The company may turn profitable by latest by 1Q Jun10. These could be last bearish days for Dish TV. Position now. ST Target low/high 48/60 three Months (except in market crash)
UNQUOTE
My opinion is very clear as to when 1Q2010) the company will return to absolute profitability, this means that the company will be unprofitable until such time. Further, the absolute profit is different from EBIDT or operating profit which remains profitable with increasing contribution. Now, note the following from Dish TV official release.
EARNINGS RELEASE FOR THE QUARTER ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2009

1. DISH 1V REVENUES OF INR 2,786 MILLION, UP 44 % YOY
2. 0.55 MILLION NEW SUBSCRIBERS ADDED DURING THE QUARTER
3. DISH TV IS THE MARKET LEADER WITH 35 % SHARE OF PAY DTH MARKET
4. 3Q FY2O1O — Highlights
5. Dishtv added 0.55 million new subscribers during the quarter. During the nine month period ended December 2009, 1.4 mIllion new subscribers were added.
6. As on December 31 2009, Dishtv had a gross subscriber base of 6.4 million and net subscriber base of 5.3 million. Churn recorded during the quarter was 0.9% per month
7. Gross revenue for the quarter were INR 2,786 million, an increase of 44 % over the corresponding period last fiscal.
8. Overall Pay Gross DTH market share of Dish TV stood at 35 % in 6 market operator scenario as on December 31, 2009
9. During the quarter, Dishtv raised USS 100 million through issue of Global Depositary Receipts. The funds would be used for new subscriber acquisition.
10. Launched its marketing communication with new Brand Identity “Ghar Aayi Zindagi”

In short, in first 9 months of 2009~10, the company crossed the full year’s revenue of 2008~09. Further, the company successfully raised US$ 100 Millions GDR (= Rs 470 crores) + rights issue. This will reduce the interest burden by Rs 70 crores or Rs 0.75 per share. Some equity dilution is not ruled out. The fact that they achieved this in spite of poor IPO market and financial crisis in the world, speaks the satisfaction of large investors what the company is going to do. There is a growth in almost all segments of the company’s business.

Now, I believe that the company may become profitable at the end of 4QMarch. The year 2010~11 will be the growth year in real sense. Please note that absolute profit is negative due to extremely heavy depreciation (almost 35%) peculiar to entertainment segment. They are allowed to charge off, although they may still have life left.

I maintain my recommendations. It is satisfactory. STRONG BUY on any weakness of the market.

Sir,
Recent  move  by Obama  restricting  bank  for  making  risky  investments  , Is he moving in right direction? Please give your  views .
Ketan
Hongkong
 
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 23, 2010 at 12:14 PM HKST
There will be a short article in a few days

Dear Anil,You may missed to answer one of the Reader’s question.HARSH PATEL asked question on 21st Jan 2010 regarding PetronetLNG, GAIL and Reliance Power.I was also intrested in knowing the answer for that. Thanks

Mohan R , Chennai, INDIA

Kalidas says 22 Jan 2010
In fact I wrote the reply at the same time, but it was lost while updating the comments. I will have to rewrite it again. May be by tomorrow.

PS: Reply posted there. Please visit his comment

Dear  Sir

By  the  time  writing this  mail  as  per  INO.Com – GC.G10.E GOLD Feb (NYMEX) -  Volumes  for  the  day  showing  – 1,46,687.  It  may  increase much more   by  the  time  closing  for  the  day.   Shall  it have  any  impact on  the  price  movement  of  Gold.    Please  share  your  views  based  on  latest  developments  the  prospects  of  the  Gold  in  near  Future.

Regards
Vijaya Kumar G, Bangalore, India

Dear Sir,
I have 1oo shares of RCOM @ Rs. 225/=. CMP is  Rs. 182/=  Please advice wether I should average  at CMP or swap with some other share? Please advice. Thank You.
ANJUM VOHRA
KANPUR. INDIA

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 22, 2010 at 11:32 PM HKST
Keep it and buy 50 more at current prices.(Hold back buying for 3 days when the markets are likely to react very negatively. RCOM too will be affected. Buy at between 150 to 160 level or even lower. you will get it. Just write limit order when the market is falling.

Dear Kalidasji,
                           In one our reponses you had mentoned that FannieMae & FreddieMac are good for investment due tot he blank cheque provided by the US government.I live in India and do not have a US trading account.With ICICI Bank & Reliance Money providing us the facility to buy overseas listed stocks,Do you advise me to buy FannieMae & FreddieMac at current levels.I am willing to wait for 12-15 months.

Regards,
Vinod S
Bangalore, INDIA
Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 22, 2010 at 11:43 PM HKST
ADD country name to your signature always. I added for you.

Yes, if you have good risk appetite, invest up to 5% of investment budget (or US$ 12,000 whichever is smaller) into above stocks. You may use Charles Schwab. What I do not know whether overseas stock buying is permitted in India. The Symbol for Fannie Mae and Freddie mac are FNM ($1.02) and FRE($1.26) listed on NYSE. Your broker will guide you. Apportion between above stocks.
12.34 PM

Sir
 
I have  1900 agro dutch industries average price of 24. CMP  17.4. ( Orginally purchased at 2006 and averaged out in 2009)
In 5-1-2010 – they have informed to the exchange that, the due to steep increase in the raw material cost, the performance will affect in Q3 and Q4 of this fiscal. The debt restructuring is yet to be approved by NON-CDR leaders.
 
In 15-1-10 they have informed the exchange their board has cleared the proposal of issuing 10 lac convertible warrants at 17/warrant.  Converted 2 cr. Warrants to their promoters issued during 2009. Post conversion promoter share holding increased from 32.51% to 57.71%
 
In 21-1-10, they have informed that exchange that they are going for open offer for 20% of shares at the price of  Rs.16.  Amount of shares in the open offer is almost 33% of share holding of the public.
 
How to read all the above. Is it worth to hold the shares since promoters are increasing their percentage and even there is fall, reasonable support due to open offer price.
Kindly help me on this.
 
R.Yuvaraj
Chennai
 
Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 22, 2010 at 3:40 PM HKST
good business, but I do not trust their accounts. They had only one annual loss, how could they lend themselves into trouble. Further, their investment to others is rising. may be their own company. The promoters are NOT bringing in new money but issue themselves Warrants convertible into Rs 17 per share. That is, they reserve the option to convert into shares and profit themselves, if the company or stock does well; if they don’t, it cost them nothing.They claim rise in raw material cost, but there is none for growing mushrooms. It just grows.

May be you can keep 900 shares as souvenir. Sell 1000 and swap to Abhishek Industries. Also buy 1000 shrs of Abhishek Industries more. After the FPO is over, see whether it was oversubscribed. If not, you may be able to buy at discount.

Hello Sir,

Thanks,your analysis is coming right. Please suggest what is the right time to enter . At present i am sitting at 100% cash.

Best Regards,
Guleria, Delhi, India
10:29AM , 22-01-2010

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 22, 2010 at 2:24 PM HKST
We will see on Monday. The stocks except Spicejet, are all expensive.

Sir,
Silver starts correcting(as you told 2 weeks back), what should be my entry level?
with regds
Sathya
Chennai,India

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 22, 2010 at 2:26 PM HKST
Silver is stronger than gold. I do not know your Indian prices. Enter at $17.10/ounce equivalent in India

Dear Sir,
What should be my actioin with Spicejet – I sold 2500 shares @ 51 (average  price  Rs.32 ) after your first call and still holding 2000 shares at average  price of 29. Cmp 53.35 Waiting for your guidance please.
Muthu Saravanan
Chennai, India.  Jan 21, 2009, 11.46 p.m.

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 22, 2010 at 11:00 AM HKST
Hold it and enjoy the rally. Read my observation in Stock Observatory. If you are worried too much about the current rattling in equity market which I have warned before, then only sell it. If the market drops, and for any reason the counter drops to 43 or below, buy back what you sold. IFCI is a strong stock at the moment. The current correction in the market will make it easy to remove F&O ban.

Dear sir,
Hope you are doing fine!
1) I needed guidance on some CAD that i am holding (2000). Should i hold the same or get it exchanged. In an earlier comment i noticed you mentioning that the CAD would do better that the USD hence should be held.
2) I am in need the money invested in GOLD ETF’s in the month of March 10. Do you think it would do well in short period or should I just sell and get out as of now.

Thanks,
Varghese, Pune, India.

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 22, 2010 at 10:57 AM HKST
CAD is good but Aussie Dollar could be better choice. In the meantime, stay with gold ETF or Gold. You can afford to wait for one more month.

However, do not try to dabble in gold on very short term trades like one month. Prefer some equity instead, although equity market is bad.

Venkat,
Your subject says it all. We all should take a step back and thank Kalidas sir for this impeccable service to investors.
I have no words to express my gratitude as well. Wishing you all the luck Kalidas sir.
Warm Regards
Vyas Nambiar
Pune, India

Dear Anil,
You have not answered one of the Reader’s question.
HARSH PATEL asked question regarding petronet and RPower.
I was also intrested in knowing the answer for that.
 
Thanks
Navin K , MUMBAI, INDIA

Time for Gratitude
Guru,
After 2.5 years in market, sailing through both extreme bull and bear market and loosing, now I have started earning from market. Thanks guru,  you have been a guiding star through out this journey(I have been folowing since Jan 2008), you have guided 360°regarding investing.There are lot of insight from you which has insipred me.The couple of insights which has gone into my subconcious are
*Market is like Ocean it gives back what ever you throw at it(This was the main reason for my persistence)
*Never hate your self(One of the best insight for investment as well as life)
*Start taking decision, initially 9/10 may go wrong but as time goes on you will have 7/10 correct(That’s exactly what has happen to me over time)
Guruve Namah
-Venkat (Venkatesh Kanakaraj),Chennai,India.
p.s Thanks OrangeStone for introducing Guru

Sir,
You have hit the bull’s eye, Sir. Correction started in Indian stock market exactly on 21.01.10 . Kindly accept Heartiest congratulations for predicting the market rightly.
Looking forward to hear over by over ( weekly) commentary of the market  in order to take advantage of your wisdom.
Regards
Arun
Mumbai, India
 

Dear sir,
Can you please advise on IFCI now? I have sold most of my stocks and I am  in 70% cash now. Only major holding is IFCI (4000 shares at average of 55/- CMP 52.3).
Thanks,
Harish Vyas
San Diego, USA

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 22, 2010 at 10:43 AM HKST
For the time being, do as under (Just to enhance return – nothing wrong with IFCI)
Sell IFCI 2000 shares
Buy Spicejet 1000
Buy DishTV 1000

Dear Sir,
Can you please advise me whether this is right time to buy a  flat,or should I wait for more time ?
six month before rate were 2500 per sq ft but now its 3000 or above .
Do you see any real estate crash in india like dubai in near future?
Eagarly waiting for your reply
Regards
Haresh
Pune, MH
India
 
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 21, 2010 at 9:51 PM HKST
If it is for self use, go for it if the rates are reasonable and location is good. If it is for investment purpose, then perhaps you may wait for 2 or 3 months more.

Dear Sir,

I am taking a home loan, just want to your advice whether to take on floating rate or fixed rate.

As you said that interest rates are about to rise in India also.

Right now Floating rate is 9.50 % PA but as a scheme they will give 8.00 % PA Fixed for one year and afterwards floating rate as per market.

Fixed rate is 14.00 % PA.

So Please guide me on which rate should i opt for.

Harish
Hyderabad
India.

Hi Sir,
I have seen you have been saying RIL is expensive. As I see an ongoing PE  of 11.54 which is right if you calculate and  in BSE website also and a 11.5 PE for FY08-09, how we can say it is expensive while stocks like INFY (25pe) TCS(22) ONGC(17) L&T (23.27)ACC (13.49) Tata motors & Tata steel (14.5 though bse shows it as 43 & 24). (the bse new screen when you type for quote of any share is really excellant as it gives all the data in one page for any co. but be careful on the PE calculation which is wrong as in tata motors and tata steel case.
I feel, RIL has so many promising businesses like retail, healthcare, solar etc to be demerged in the future and it is the heavy weight that is running at the lowest PE.
Need your valued guidance on the above.

Tarun-Dubai,UAE
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 21, 2010 at 3:09 PM HKST
Not adjusted for 1:1 split or Bonus. The price is halved, not EPS. Their 2009 profits were down. Merger of RPL and new acquisition may lower its profit and increase its debt at a time when the rates abroad are on rise. Higher rupee will lower profit of acquired company.

Further, I have nothing against Reliance. I have better bargains elsewhere. I prefer simpler companies having few products than too diversified companies. I do not like companies that go on acquiring overseas companies at the height of the market, and at bottom of the cycle of interest rates. Look at TATA acquisition of Corus. They bought at the height of the market and then could not get the financing. Further, do not compare PE of one sector to another. Each sector has its own merits and demerits. you can not put Orange, Lemon, and Apples in one basket and then compare between them.

To me, Reliance is on downward path. Its only winner could be KG basin but there too it is underpricing the product. To me, Reliance is a Sale, not hold or buy.

This is to all readers.
kalidas ji,
kindly allow me this message.
Why do people start commenting on kalidas sirs negative views. i have immensely benefited from sirs thought process and have lost also on several recommendations.But kalidas sir is not god that he will be spot on all the time.
This site is for grasping all good things.If anybody wants to say negative things kindly open your own blog sites and do it.Constructive criticism is welcome but not destructive ones.
Kalidasji , Kindly forgive me for this comments.
regards
pralay.kolkata.india.

Dear Sir,

Thank You for your advise on my Motorola shares.  To be very honest, I am scared of investing in Fannie & Freddie especially as you are foreseeing a big market crash in the US.  Would you recommend to sell out and invest in gold & silver bullion?  Any investment advice on Hong Kong Citic Bank  Shares?

Thank You very much,

Nisha
Hong Kong
21st Jan 2010

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 21, 2010 at 12:35 PM HKST
Even if there is correction in US market, the property market will rise in spite of higher interest rates. in that case, Fannie and Freddie Mae will benefit. The fact is that they will not be allowed to go bankrupt. They are just given $ 400 billion lifeline and unlimited withdrawal amount. Both FNM and FRE will benefit. The positive effect of such move is not reflected. Please note that property market is a real tangible wealth. The only related paper assets were derivatives such as CDO an CDS. The banks lost there most. At current prices of FNM and FRE you are buying at much below bankrupt prices. Of course you take risk, but you took risk when you invested in Motorola. Reasonable and calculated risk always make money. Whether stocks will go down if the market corrects, sure they will but in most probability they would rebound more strongly than anything else. Talk to me after 12 months quoting today’s prices and the prices at that time.

Yes, gold and silver will make money, but the above stocks will give better return. Eveyone want to buy gold today, not everyone wants to buy Fannie mae. Again, it all depends on your risk appetite. If you want very safe recourse but relatively less return, buy gold and silver. They will recover your losses, but will not make enough money. You come to stock market to make money, not to give away one day and receive bank after few days same amount.

Sir,
In economic times, your view is ECHOED by this esteemed person:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/analysis/ET-Exclusive-Risk-of-double-dip-recession-seen/articleshow/5478461.cms
with regds
Sathya
Chennai,India

Sir Re-posting my questions to you. Looks like you missed it the first time.

Dear Sir,
Natural Gas is the future for Indian energy story.
Don’t you think that GAIL India has a much batter chance for growth compared to PETRONET LNG? GAIL is a stake holder in PETRONET, It has good distribution network and they are going to get gas from KG besin. I believe that it provides the intigrated play.
Please provide your views on this.
today government has taken a stance for the UMPPs.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/govt-allows-power-cos-to-bid-for-addl-umppcaveat_436138.html
The government has allowed a single company to bid for a fourth ultra mega power project (UMPP) provided it has completed one out of three UMPPs it has on hand.
The Power Secretary on Friday said the Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM), which had earlier ruled a single company can’t develop more than three UMPPs, will now discuss the bid documents for the fourth UMPPs.
“Bidders would be encouraged to purchase domestic equipment [by this order],” Power Secretary HS Brahma said.
Reliance Power is currently working on three UMPPs.
What will be effect of this on Rpower.

Harsh Patel , Ahmedabad, India

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 23, 2010 at 9:50 PM HKST
GAIL and PETRONET – which one to buy
When you have a choice between parent company and the subsidiary, prefer Subsidiary. Who grows more – parent or children. In stock market, the growth matters most. Petronet is child with 4 or 5 big foster fathers – Gail, ONGC, IOC, and two more with deep pockets (World bank or its subsidiary)

Further, GAIL is trading at 17 times P/E with Zero Growth in 2009 (first 9 months) whereas Petronet will have 60% rise in revenue in 2009~10 and almost 100% growth in 20910~11. Petronet PE is about 10 to 11 and prospective PE is about 6 to 7

GAIL is trading at Rs 400 whereas Petronet close to 78. It is a good idea to sell GAIL which will get you 5 times more shares in same industry in same group with better growth.

Reg. Reliance Power, I do not want to evaluate the company by politics or proposed rules. I have replied about RPOWER in the past. Just scroll through answer. I have mentioned elsewhere that GOI can not exclude RPOWER from bidding the project – it is “unconstitutional”. RPOWER has expert lawyer in Jethmalani, a constitutional expert.

for the time being, it will make more sense to switch from ROWER to any of the following company:
SELL RPOWER Rs 160 or so
BUY any of Spicejet (Rs 58), Ispat (Rs 21) or Dish Tv (Rs 48) – all on massive growth path and are recovery play. They will recover your losses faster and also give you handsome reward.

hi anil,
SUB:- WILL INDIAN MARKET CORRECT?
I want to alert you that financial reports coming  from America especiallly banks like Bank of America Morgan stanley, Fargo are not as bad as expected by you  and others. Your prediction this time seems to have failed!! 
Will you change your views on Indian markets falling heavily from tommorrow?  Personally  I have big stakes if your prediction still becomes true..
Kindly clarify your position on your view immeidaitely.
Regards
Naidu

sorry I forgot to mention this:
Naidu
Banglore, India
20th Jan 2010

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 21, 2010 at 8:54 AM HKST
This blog is essentially meant for long term investors, not day traders or short term investors. Further, you are reading and accepting the news as they are. Unlike you, I try to read the numbers below the surface and inform the readers how to read the numbers. Almost all of my statements are backed by facts, figures and reasoning.

This is a blog, an opinion, not research house. It is more like a treatment in outpatient department, not full medical treatment after all X-ray, blood, urine, MRI, CTScan and team of Doctor’s reports or consultation.

The approach in this blog is “Macro” not “micro”. I never gave specific numbers for any bank nor I have means to state them, because a bank has hundreds of subsidiaries,and it will take almost a month to analyze them after discussion with the management. Further, when a bank has lost several billions of dollars in past 2 years and carries over the losses, it can afford to show profit on paper which can be set off against the cooked up profit, because they do not have to pay any taxes. When P Chidambaram introduced MAT (Minimum Alternative Tax), many listed companies in india completely reversed their profit picture and started reporting losses and the market went down.

When I mentioned about the potential risk abroad, they were borne out correctly and almost in time. I not only inform the readers of buy opportunity but also sale opportunity. My stock reports clearly show the buy level and sell level.

This blog is an opinion. if you believe that I have failed without substantiating your bland statement, So be it. Let other readers judge. You may also take the contrarian position and conduct your portfolio or trading position accordingly. If you are a day trader or playing in F&O market, better make a point of NOT reading this blog. This blog’s opinion is meant for investors, not for speculative or leveraged purpose.

I will also discontinue the “Stock Observatory” column from Monday, the 25 Jan, 2010. In any case, this column was started on trial basis. I always try to be innovative to help the readers. However, It appears to attract the short term traders or speculators active in F&O game which was not my intention. It also takes lot of time to wade through host of events which is extremely time consuming.

I do not want other readers to express their opinion on this issue. The chapter is closed.

Respected Sir,
4th quarterly result of bank of America is available at link :
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201001200740dowjonesdjonline000426&title=bank-of-america-4q-loss-narrows-amid-merrill-results.
Is the result  better than your expectations?
Regards
Arun
Mumbai, India

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010 at 10:50 PM HKST
I do not have any expectation. It is meant for analysts who conduct meeting with the CEO and CFO. I don’t have those resources and time. It is wasting of time.

Further it is a bogus balance sheet. Read the following:

Revenue jumped 60% to $25.1 billion amid the addition of Merrill’s results.

In the global markets business, which includes Merrill, Bank of America swung to a $7.18 billion profit from a $4.92 billion loss a year earlier.

When the whole world is in deflation, how could they have revenue rise of $25 billions? How could bankrupt Merrill Lynch have profit of $ 7.18 billions when it lost so much to have merged with BofA? Even in their heydays they did not make so much profit.

dear mr. Anil,
By mistake , I have posted this message in your Observatory. Please ignore that.
I have liquidated several of my holdings before your  revised deadline i.e 21st Jan 2010 for a major correction.
Now please give me green signal  as to when to enter the mkt at lower prices.
Regards
Naidu
Bangalore , India
20th Jan 2010.

Dear Mr. Kalidas
I wish to take immediate steps following the caution sounded by you.  My portfolio size is INR  15 Lacs of which Rel Industries is 50 percent.   This stock is  currently loosing at 33%.  Should I sell the stock, book the loss and buy back after the correction?
 
Muthukrishna Pisupati
Chennaim India, 17.09 Hours
Chennai
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010 at 10:37 PM HKST
Do not be scared – you are in blue chip. If you have lost 33%, we have to make 50% to break even.
Reliance was by the way an expensive stock. Please note that if I ask you to sell, the stock may go higher if the market at night in USA rises. If you understand this, then

Sell in stages in rally @ 10% per day to reduce your position by 70% and retain cash for a while. Enter the market in correction to use those proceeds. By selling 10% per day, we are averaging up or down the price. If you want to sell in one stroke, you can do so when the market has strong rally. You can follow Stock Observatory column to see my daily call. If you have any question at any time, you may post it here.
 
 

hello Mr. Anil,

I have been going through the posts here since very long and have great admiration and respect for your views.
I have taken your views very seriously about impending correction to lower levels on some negative news emanating from US. Today, I have liquidated 50% of my holding except in IFCI ISPAT Industries and Petronet.
Now I have about 30 lakhs in the kitty. Can you please advise me whether I should increase my holding in the above stocks.
Regards
Naidu
Bangalore, India
20th Jan 2010

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010 at 10:44 PM HKST
It is difficult to advise individually. Please see my new column “Stock Observatory” daily to see my views. When the oustanding opportunity is there, we make mention there.

JVL Agro and Anu Labs

Sir,

Would like to know your views on the above stocks . I am stuck in both of them @ 138 and 18 for more than six months. Should I hold or sell .

Thanks in advance

Shikarth
Jakarta, Indonesia
20 Jan 2010

Dear Kalidasji,
Does your long term target of UCO bank stands at  210, as somewhere on your blog I read for UCO bank, not for long term as government decision to merge PSU bank. Just want to be sure what is means, I have UCO 600@51 and wanted to keep for longterm as earlier suggested by you.
regards,
Sonali
Frankfurt, Germany

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Government has recently announced the merger between PSU banks. There are talks about merger between Canara Bank and Dena Bank, Bank of India and Union Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank and Indian Bank etc. It looks like as against 15 nationalzed bank, there will be 5 major banks. They could be Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank, and possibly two more from South or East. Due to change in policy, I can not maintain UCO on 2 or 3 years basis. It is still cheap stock, and this is why it has been rising. It may not go to Rs 210 as quoted by me earlier, but reaching Rs 100 is a distinct possibility. However, along the road, at least I fear major correction (not shared by many) which may have some effect.

You may ride the current rally as be guided by short term target, rather than long term one.

Hi Sir, If you have not seen the below data just for you or anyone interested.
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/protected/pdf/0911-12EWT_comb.pdf
Tarun
Dubai,UAE

Praveen B [Nagpur-India @ 13.30 pm]
 
A big hi to you Mr. Selarka and i wish you a very happy and prosperous new year ahead. I used to follow you around in MMB and contrary to popular belief[atleast0n MMB] your theory on sub-prime was/is bang on target. Hats off to you.
I had two queries.
1] I hold 20000 of evinix @4.95. should I hold this stock or get out of it. I have a short term perspective so I can swap on your reccomendation.
2] I hold Mold Tek Plastics [BSE :533080] 1000 @ 45.35 .Should I hold it.
Thanks and warm regards
Praveen B.
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010
EVINIX: Hold it for a while. If it goes up by 20% or 30% in few days (as happened before), sell 80% and buy back when corrects.
Mold-Tech Plastic: Hold it.The company does not have long history but looks like it is a growing company. Profitable and inexpensive with good prospects. Dividend yield is also high if they are actually paying it (some Indian companies announce dividend, send TDS but never the dividend cheque)

Dear Sir

It looks Petronet results may be leaked out and not that attractice and hence price is falling down since three days.

What is your opinion on holding this further for Short term.

Murali
Hyderabad/India.
KALIDAS SAYS ….WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 20, 2010
I do not speculate. I have my own reasoning. If you feel that the result might have been leaked out and it could be bad, be a seller.

I do not change my opinion so quickly based on speculation. My reasons are already contained in StockWatch – Petronet (in the sidebar). Kindly do not ask questions about minute to minute movements

Thanks a lot for the quick reply.  Also awaiting for your updates in the new “Stockswap – Losers2Winners” column,  going forward I would like start investing based on your recommendations.
Thanks and Regards,
Radhika, Hyderabad. India 

Sir,
What is your view on Indian telecom sector stocks. I am holding Bharti Airtel and tata teleservices stocks with over 10% loss, wondering whether to exit now or wait for another week.
Regards,
Radhika, Hyderabad, India

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010
I would sell them all and buy RCOM. It will be easy to make 10% in RCOM. The growth in RCOM will be more than Bharti

Dear Anilji,

I would be grateful if you could clarify if your sell call also include your recent recommendations of

TTML- Holding 1100@31.61- CMP 28.90
RCOM- Holding 50@414 – CMP 190
Abhishek Industries- Holding 700@15.27- CMP 18.95
Dish TV-Holding 100@42.23- CMP 48.90

You have already addressed the query about IFCI and Petronet for other readers, so i have the clarifications for those two.

Please advise.

Surti,
Mumbai,  India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Try the following.
Sell TTML at the market (28.90) and buy 100 RCOM – this will average down and also enter a fast moving stock
From the balance proceeds, buy EVINIX or more of ABHISHEK
Ride the rally for the rest. If these stocks move up very fast, sell 80% and retain only 20%

Dear Sir,
I bought IOC yesterday 100@330 and it closed@318. Shall I buy more near 300? I want to increase my investment in this counter to 500 pieces. What shall I do?

Mahesh, Nagpur
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Write Country name too, otherwise do not post.

Yes, you can buy more. However, if you want to buy on short term basis less than 3 months, better go to other counters. This stock is for long term investors who have 3 years time horizon and who want to make 300% to 400% profit. This is the best stock to own for long term investors. This is not traders’ stock.

This stock is like buying LIC Housing Finance at Rs 180 in the past. It is that quality. Their less than expected profits is only due to price control policy on petrol which will not last forever. The government is alreay under pressure to change the policy. If not today, the change will come in 12 months or so. Where there is a smoke, there is or will be a fire.

Sir, my question is of very general type but your advice could save me a lot of money. I want to start my new house construction within 3 months. For that I was thinking of buying steel(loha) @ 2400/quintal  but it jumped to 3600/quintal in 15 days.
Is there any chance of price downfall in metals? Shall I buy now or wait for 3-6 months?
Ekta, orai

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010
You have wrong information for steel prices at 2400. It is consistently above Rs32/kg to almost Rs 50/kg in retail at one time. Steel forms very small portion of the house construction.

Write your name, city and country always properly capitalized. I do not want to remind the readers again and again. Either you follow the norms or do not post any query.

dear sir,
at what level we should start buying LICHSFIN, one of your all time favourite?
Sunny Singh, Bhopal 

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Capitalize the name, city and also write country. If you can not, do not post your query in future. You are regular offender – this is last time.

If there is no market correction, then even present price 810 or below is a good buy. Their EPS could be around Rs 70. The stock is not expensive by present price. This is one of the strongest stock. With interest rates on hold and housing sector still healthy, expect good recurring result. Without severe correction, try your luck at 735 to 765 level as entry point.

Sir,
There is an advertisement at your  web  site stating “BSE-30 Index on course to a 21,000 level by July, 2010″. Is it possible when a major correction is imminent?
Regards
Arun
Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010
These are Google ads inserted and rotated by their program. I have nothing to do with it. Considering very rich valuation of Indian market, I feel very strongly that Indian market will be at reasonable investment level at 10,000 to 12000. Will it go to 21000 instead? I do not know.

Dear sir,
I had recently bought 4000 IFCI shares between 53.5/- and 57/- intending to sell them above 60/- but it did not pass that mark and has been drifting down slowly.
My breakdown of buying range is
2500 IFCI @ 53.5
500 IFCI @ 55.1
1000 IFCI @ 57.2
Can you please advise on what I do with these shares for near future?
I am planning to sell the 2500 shares at no loss no gain and retaining the other 1500 until it gets back to 60 again. I can use the 2500 to lower my average if it drops further.
Or I can sell all of them now to buy back later.
With Regards,
Harish Vyas
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Hold it for 2 more days. Let the IFCI come out ofF&O ban list.
San Diego, US
 

Dear Kalidasji,
Pl. give your opinion for Opto Circuits India Ltd. Holding it for the past three years. Should i sell and buy again when the price comes down? The quarterly results will be announced on 28th Jan 2010.

Opto Circuits 1000 shares @ 91 CMP   236

- Sridhar M., Hyderabad, India

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Sell 600 and hold to cash.

Hello Kalidasji,
Citi bank has published Q4 results with big loss. Even the yearly profit declared includes stake sale in subsidiaries. This result along with BOA’s expected big loss should act as trigger for downfall of global markets. Do you expect the current level of Dow Jones index is going to be the high for 2010?

Saravana,
Coimbatore,
India.
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Somehow, every one, private investors, institutional investors, hedge funds and all governments do not want their financial markets, especially stock and bond markets, to go higher and higher and do not collapse in spite of host of problems. The governments too gon on creating papers from thin air without any limit and any control. The field is free for all. When will this end, is difficult to time it. Some event might trigger, which one we do not know as yet, because almost all worst financial events are being analyzed as “better than expected” and we know what was the expectations.

There is absolutely no recovery. Even in Japan, where JAL was to fire 30,000 employees, several thousands of jobs have been sacrificed by Sony, NEC, JAL, etc. Their populations is also shrinking.

The collapse is always preceded by unreasonable heights relative to the economic activity. I view the future scenes which are not only unhealthy but also very very scary. In past crashes, the investors could recoup the losses in 5 to 7 years, but in this crash, the investors may not be able to recover their money for next 12 years or so, unless the US Administration start taking right actions on expediency basis. Instead, they have resorted to uncontrolled printing.

To me, the Dow Jones index should not be even more than 1500. Please note that they are all taking about recession almost on scale to 1930, but the stocks have risen to 10,700, about 8000 points higher than 1987 crash. How could reality is worse than 1930 and stocks could be at 300% premium? Will it sustain, yes, how long we do not know.

Make your own guess whether Dow will retest the high. At the moment, every bad number is at year high. along with Dow.

Dear Sir,
Since JAL (Japan Airlines) has filed for bankruptcy today, quite a few US carriers like Delta , American Airlines & Air France of France,are trying to bit of the slice of this troubled Airline as per bloomberg website, so that they have access to China & Japan.
Sir do you feel United Airlines also trying to invest in JAL or be a part of restructuring exercise? This is because upto last year, United Airlines (UAL) had got very good share in Chinese market in terms of Business class passengers. I do work with a company, which is very closely associated with UAL. Apart from this, if you can please enlighten on UAL’s fate on coming months.
 
Best Regards,
Ethereal
Mumbai, India
 
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010
One bankrupt will not be allowed to buy another bankrupt. JAL is a state airline. It will be restructured under bankruptcy law and will not be allowed to go out of business. Japanese government has already extended life line upto $ 9 billions. They are not going to let the control slip into foreigners hand.

Yes, Japanese government is bankrupt too (Do not count it FOREX reserve – it is not indicative of Japanese government wealth. It was created out of deficit financing. Japan is having highest ratio of Debt to GDP in the world.

Dear Sir:

Today you have given a sell call in Stock observatory Column ( 10 % per day) & have asked us to lighten our portfolio by 40%.  I am still holding IFCI around 20,000 shares and waiting for 68-73 levels which you had suggested a couple of days back . 

Trust the sell call should be applicable for IFCI as well.  Therefore, do you suggest that I should sell a part at 53-54 levels or wait for few days more . (IFCI is still in F & O ban & maybe will be out of ban in next 1-2 days). Would that be the time to sell?

Regards,
Gaurav
Mumbai
India

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Wait until its ban on F&O is lifted. The US market is still being supported in spite of worst results being declared and foreclosures are still rising. We may decide on Thursday afternoon or evening.

My call to reduce the position applies to all stocks. However 20% still remain in equity. 40% was sold off earliers, 40% now, remaining 20% which may consist of gas and some SOE refinery stocks. Some other stocks like IFCI may be included. The idea is once your 80% equity is out of danger zone, and remaining 20% in strong and undervalued stocks, the potential risk of downfall may not be more than 5% which is easily recoverable.

Dear Sir
 
Do you think  this is again strategy played by  GS tacitly supported by FED to divert the attention of metal investors away from GOLD ? Looks like  GS has total control over the  platinum and palladium market.  Why GS does not understand GOLD is GOD. !!
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/6990199/Platinum-to-beat-gold-says-Goldman-Sachs.html
 
Shiva
Bangalore
India

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 19, 2010
I do not think so. Palladium is controlled by Russia. Platinum is an industrial metal used in Auto/Car especially in exhaust system. Palladium is also being used for same purpose, but its use is not that widespread. Both are acting as Catalysts. When auto industries are in trouble, there is no way Platinum could rise so much. It is rising because of paper trades (derivatives). Until Interest rates rise to 10%, the derivatives will not stop, and the economic recovery will not start.

Dear Sir,
Satyam is down 5.25% (CMP: 110.5). Can this be a trend reversal for Satyam?
Thanks,
v8r,Stockholm,Sweden.
 
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 19, 2010
I do not think so. It was down to two reasons: (1) The market was soft – yesterday the market was closed in USA, therefore India market went up without fear of any US market events (2) Stock specific news that L&T was to sell its stake of 2.34 crore shares. This is good because the uncertainty of L&T will die away.

I do not do technical analysis such as reversal of trend etc. You may have to consult some other websites for guidance. I go by numbers, physical volumes in cash market and fundamentals. I rarely refer to charts, though I know it very well.

Mercator Lines is second largest shipping company in India besides that it has significant mining assets in Indonesia and Mozambique. I’m holding 300 @101.00, is there any hope on this counter for next 6 months to go 120 or 150.
Please also suggest after 21-Jan-2010, can we average out this script?
Mercator Lines | BSE: 526235 | NSE: MLL | CMP: 68.75
Warm regards
Jogesh Kumar
NOIDA, India

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Mercator is generally good buy below 60. It has come down more than 2 occasions, but you did not buy it them. Most Indian investors never try to buy the same stock when it is 50% to 80% down, and stick to the stock like a glue. If it is a good company, and you want to keep the stock until it goes back to 108, why not you buy when it is below 50 or so? Further, Mercator does not have tanker capacity to my knowledge. With export markets nearly dead, only tanker business is profitable for transporting crude oil. Essar Shipping is the biggest tanker operator in India with most of its vessels are relatively young.

Chose the stock according to segment in a particular industry. Having a look at shipping industry is not enough.Hundreds of ships are lying unused in Singapore. Many have decided to scrap the ships because of stronger metal markets. Sometime ago, the freight from HK to Dubai was free, and from India to Hong Kong just $80 against $ 800 in the past.

I do not see any reason for the stock to go to 120 or 150. It may trade between 48 to 80 at the most until the shipping cargo business improves. All export oriented countries from Japan, Korea,China,Hong Kong, Singapore are exporters to USA and you know the situations there. Had they had the foresight to spot the trend to diversify into tanker business, they would have been fine. I am telling you from whatever I know – I have not analyzed the company which does not meet my criteria.

Sir,
Today in stock observatory, you have made a sell call and in steel stocks also you have expressed your concerns.What about ISPAT?I am holding 5000 @23.70 and 3000 @23.50.
with regds
Sathya
Chennai
India

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Yes, Ispat included. You still have 4 to 9 days to come out in a rally. Sell only part, not all. Its real uptrend will come after April.

Dear Sir,
Natural Gas is the future for Indian energy story.
Don’t you think that GAIL India has a much batter chance for growth compared to PETRONET LNG? GAIL is a stake holder in PETRONET, It has good distribution network and they are going to get gas from KG besin. I believe that it provides the intigrated play.
Please provide your views on this.
today government has taken a stance for the UMPPs.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/govt-allows-power-cos-to-bid-for-addl-umppcaveat_436138.html
The government has allowed a single company to bid for a fourth ultra mega power project (UMPP) provided it has completed one out of three UMPPs it has on hand.
The Power Secretary on Friday said the Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM), which had earlier ruled a single company can’t develop more than three UMPPs, will now discuss the bid documents for the fourth UMPPs.
“Bidders would be encouraged to purchase domestic equipment [by this order],” Power Secretary HS Brahma said.
Reliance Power is currently working on three UMPPs.
What will be effect of this on Rpower.
 
Harsh Patel , Ahmedabad, India

Sir,
Have I missed your call to sell another 40% by 21st January? Where is this call posted? And is it for ALL stocks?
Thanks,
Pawan,
Delhi,India

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Check the Stock Observatory – it is very much there.

Emancipated Sir,
Please can you share your views on the below stocks for a Long term investment.
1. Glodyne Technoserve
2. Tidewater Oil India
3. Anuh Pharma
4. Suashish Diamonds
5. Jaicorp
Thanks much in advance.
GSRao,
New Jersey,
USA
Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 18, 2010
No comments. I do not follow the named stocks. If I form an opinion later, I might send you an email.
———————————————–
Thanks much for your quick response, I shall certainly look forward to your expert opinions on the above at the earliest.

Also, by long term I intend to mean that I can remain invested in the above stocks for a year or two at least.

Thanks again,
GSRao,
New  Jersey,
USA

Dear Kalidas Sir,

In continuation of my previous post (Jagadish, 18 Jan 10 at 4:32 PM)  for which you have given a detailed reply.

Based on your SELL call , iam planning to go short on Nifty by buying puts this week.

I understand your views on FnO and short-term investing , but having lost around Rupees 5 Lakhs in FnO in the last 2 years i want to give it a last try to recover my losses.

Since there are only 7 trading sessions left for FnO for the january series, and january puts are trading at 60-80 % discount compared to febuary series, should i buy puts for January series or Febuary series.

Requesting your kind views.

Regards.,
Jagadish
Bangalore,India

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 18, 2010
Sorry, no suggestions for F&O. This is our policy – kindly respect it.

Sir
Weather I can buy MRF  at current level?
Thanking you
V K S Rajan
Bangalore, India.
18.01.10

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 18, 2010
Why do you ask this question on 18 January when I am asking everyone to reduce their position by another 40% by 21 st January. To be specific – my answer is NO.

Dear Sir,
JP Morgan results were dis-appointing and the dow fell 100 points , but the indian markets seem to ignore the dow 100 point fall and are up today as-of-now.

My point of view is that the US Govt wants to project the stock market recovery as real recovery to the american people , so any downfall of the stock markets will impact the sentiment of the american people and erode the credibility of the FED/US Govt which have been projecting a recovery.

With all the allegations of FED/US Govt indulging in stock buying or index (S&P 500 ,dow) manipulations to pump up the markets does your 21-Jan SELL call still hold.
 
Regards.,
Jagadish
Bangalore,India

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 18, 2010
Please note that all the calls given by me after lot of consideration. My articles are very specific of the situation.

1. The most dangerous result to come will be from Bank of America who has reportedly lost heavily on credit cards, aside from continuing losses on MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities).
2. My calls are very specific with dates.
3. However, dates may vary due to unexpected events such as Haiti crisis which is used by President Obama to divert the attention of the American people from economic crisis.
4. He also used Health Care issue to deflect the economic problems and the worsening crisis.
5. He is also playing Wall Street Bonuses and wants to impose fees. He is simply stupid. He has to pass only "two line legislation that the banks and wall street firms may pay the bonuses as much as they like ONLY out of Profit After Taxes, not before" The pay is automatically controlled. When the banks do not have profits, they can not simply pay. And they can pay only after paying taxes to the state.
6. If they show profits, the Treasury can demand the repayment of TARP loans, it is as simple as that.
7. President Obama is simply wasting his time on trivalities. He makes simple things extremely difficult and then tries to solve it.
8. It looks like that he has mortgaged his reasoning abilities and therefore resorting to gimmicks to appease the gallery.

After giving over $ 450 billions to Citigroup, over $ 60 billions to JP Morgan and tens of billions of dollars to Bank of America, Wacholia, Wells Fargo Bank and AIG, he is now demanding money back from them like “Pathan” saying “I want my money back”. Only last year, he gave away $ 787 billions on top of $750 billions given away by President Bush. Those banks have not yet come to profit, where from they will pay? He is talking about returning of hundreds of billions of dollars, not few thousands or millions.

The fact that all guarantees given at the instance of Henry Paulson and Tim Geithner for citygroup upto $ 306 billions of worthless debts are now about to mature. Obama is now wetting in his pants. He has to approach Senate to approve additional $ 306 billion of real funds, not guarantees. They are going to ask why did not he take prior approval of the Senate? Also, he is likely to lose Senate majority in election next week which will take away vital 60th vote. He will not get his Health Care bill passed. This is why he was expediting passage as soon as possible.

Geithner and Paulson are both asked to testify before the Senate on 27th Januray, 2010. This may turn out to be very crucial and hotly debated meetings and testimony. It is quite likely that Geithner will be forced to resign before 15th February, 2010. Also, the Barnanke’s fate is also uncertain. Even President Obama may turn out to be the only President who will be forced to resign before his term is over. Hillary Clinton may replace him.

In short, the political uncertainty is increasingly taking hold of America. Such “uncertainty” is the biggest eney of the stock market. When the world markets were rising ahead of election in India, Indian markets were falling sharply – why? because of political uncertainty caused by Left and communist parties.

You may continue to repose your faith into equity markets, because the markets in India are reacting differently. That is is because the budget is on the way. The 100 points correction is not serious enough to cause a dent into Indian market. However, when Dow falls by 700 to 1000 points in a day, as happened before, then Indian market will fall more than 6000 points in 6 to 7 sessions continuously. That is my assessment. This is a forum of opinion. I give reasons and also the facts for my assessment. I do not make the blind statement that market will go here or there.

It is up to the reader whether to heed the warning or go on sailing in rough and violent sea ahead. I am not imposing my will upon anyone. The readers come to this blog voluntarily, they can leave it in same fashion.

Dear Kalidasji,
Pl. give your opinion for Hindustan Copper Ltd. Recently the stock prise is increased with rocket speed in last ten days.I wants to invest in it. Can i invest at current CMP or wait for correction? Company Symbol(NSE) : HINDCOPPER , CMP : Rs. 495
- Ramesh, Mumbai, India

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 18, 2010
SELL now.

Sometime ago, a reader asked me when the stock was at 220 or so, whether he should sell it. I asked him to not to look at the stock for selling until it has reached Rs 360 – today it is at 495.

In fact, I am turning negative on almost all metal stocks, though the time has not come yet to get out completely, but of course, it is a time to reduce the exposure by 50% from now on until this Friday. The metal prices has gone up not due to physical demand but Investement demand from the funds. They are here today, there tomorrow.

The stocks of almost all PSU are going up anticipating privatization of them in forthcoming budgets. Indian politicians have no balls to take major and path breaking decisions. They are still mediocre in bullock carts.

Yes, this counter may get the attention of company like Sterlite Industries, But they are known to pay way below true market price. Further, this stock is very illiquid, because 99% is held by the Government of India. In spite of copper prices trebling from two years ago, this company can not still make enough money or profits.

If you want to ride the running train, do so by all the means, but subject to understanding that when you want to sell, there will be no buyers. I made fabulous money on this counter, but will not enter third time.

My earlier costs were Rs 38 and 58 and sold above Rs 300. When you have made money 2 times in same counter, do not enter it third time – you will lose.

Emancipated Sir,

Please can you share your views on the below stocks for a Long term investment.
1. Glodyne Technoserve
2. Tidewater Oil India
3. Anuh Pharma
4. Suashish Diamonds
5. Jaicorp

Thanks much in advance.
GSRao,
New Jersey,
USA

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 18, 2010
No comments. I do not follow the named stocks. If I form an opinion later, I might send you an email.

Dear Anil Sir,
                             Thankfull for your service to smallretail investers like me . Seeking your advise on RCOM 500@an average of Rs.300 . I can wait up to one year kndly waiting for your advice.

   Regards,
KOSARAJU.B.RAO
AL-JUBAIL,
K.S.A.

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 18, 2010
Buy more in correction today.

What is your call on ITC purchased in  Aug 2006 around 184
PTC , NTPC purchased last month  around110 and 210 respectively
 
Can I hold those stocks  for  long term like Petronet which I am holding and purchasing  often in small quanitities  since it was around 37 and went up to 112

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 17, 2010
No reply is given for ignoring this forum’s protocol that requires the message to end with Signature (name), (City) and (Country) invariably. Kindly cooperate.

Read the Index page above and follow it diligently. If you violate these basic norms again, your comments will be transferred to spam/trash folder.

Hi sir,

any review on IFCI? I am still keeping as purchased @52  CMP is 54.4.

please suggest me about Ucal fuel CMP 95.

Regards,
Krishna,
Hyderabad
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 17, 2010
There is no change in my call. Hold it if you can.

Sir,

I have made poor decisions in past. After being introduced to your blog I want to buy and invest in gold.  I did some researching online and I am confused. Please advice,
1. What type of gold(Coin, Bullion, Bar) and from where (online web, Merchant etc) should I buy.
2. Assuming that I would need about 20-25% of my existing cash reserves as a safety-net for rainy days. What percentage of my cash balance should I invest in Gold?
I am 36 years old, and have Zero liabilities (No Mortgage) and Zero Assets. Please kindly advice.
Thanks
Andy Aiyer,
Chicago,  USA (January 16th, 2010)

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 18, 2010
Read my article on Gold $6400 Silver $ 80 – Why would they be at and another, How to invest into gold. These both articles are published in 2009. Use the sidebar or use Download tool>> 2009>>Articles and download PDF files. It answers all questions.

Invest 20% of your assets in Gold and 5% in Silver.

Dear Kalidasji,

I own 40000 shares@5.03 of bellary steels(CMP : 3.56).With the information of Mittals & Posco planning for an investment of around 6 milion tonnes capacity each.This investment is predominantly in iron rich bellary belt of karnataka.Does it make sense to add on to my existing positions/hold to my current holding. Pls advise.

Thanks & Regards,
Vinod S
Bangalore
8.21 pm

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 17, 2010
Honestly, I have not followed this stock, until you made reference today. The financial do not look encouraging. The company’s work in progress has been rising over 5 yeas, without any of the capacity coming on stream. I do not know about Mittal and others involvement. I do not go by stories as such companies always go on spreading rumors about such big names so as to keep their life going.

I suggest you consider selling out this counter in any rally or otherwise, and switch to the following stocks

Evinix Accessories BSE: 532818 | NSE: EVINIX | ISIN: INE961H01028 The company is on growth path and its quarterly numbers are on rise. It is a profitable company. Recently, the stock has risen from 3.20 to 5.65 in short time and since corrected to 5.10. At the moment the stock is in light correction mode. Buy some now and more at 4.65 and 4.35 by switching from Bellary Steel. You will be switching from a losing company to profitable company. I am suggesting switch from one small value stock to another. You have to double the money to make profit. If you are confident about Mr. Mittal, then may be you keep about 10,000 shares. Every company in financial trouble take the name of Mittal.

Another stock to look at is GV Films which is a very volatile counter. I will write here itself within this space by tomorrow. (Sorry, Forget GV Films for the time being. Kalidas – 18/Jan)

Dear Sir,
Wish You And Your Family A Happy & Successful New Year 2010.
I am from New Delhi, India.
I am holding following stocks:
qty./ purchase price/  Cmp
BALRAMPUR CHINi          50   /    137.30      /  135.30
ASHOK LEYLAND              100 /      55.00   /     54.85
Reliance Industries              50  /       1126.00   /    1107.00
please guide me if I can hold it still further or book the loss.
 
Karan , Delhi , India

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 18, 2010
Sell Ashok Leyland in the rally and before Friday. Hold the rest.

Dear Kalidasji,

Request your esteem advice for the query posted by me on 05.01.2009 which is reproduced below for your ready reference:

“Dear Kalidasji,
As you have extended the sale call for the time being, I would like to trade on the following, request your kind advice:
a) Coal related stocks (as coal prices are soaring)
     (i) Gujarat Nre Coke in India
     (ii) Hidili Industries (Code 1393) in Hong Kong
b) Sugar stocks  (kindly advice on a particular scrip which you feel has good potential due to present soaring prices – in Hong Kong as well as in India)
Thanks & Regards,
Balaji, Hong Kong.”

Thank you and Best Regards,
Balaji, Hong Kong.

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 16, 2010
I will reply tomorrow because your stocks are not known to me.

I am negative on Coal sector. The gas is increasingly replacing oil and coal. Go for Gas not Oil or Coal is my message. When the whole world is debating against carbon emission, why do you want to get into such disfavored industry. Look at Tobacco stocks – although the companies are highly profitable, their stocks are under performing. Coal is highly pollutive and emits the maximum Carbon dio-oxide. Further, the Coal stocks used to be valued at 7 to 8 times PE whereas the Gujarat NRE is trading at 30 times PE. There will be double dip recession, and the demand for oil will subside. I take the view that oil prices have already seen the peak and may tumble to $60 before settling at $ 45 region.

I do not know about the Hong Kong stock you mentioned.

Sugar prices are also near peak now. The rise in prices is due to investment demand not real demand. Almost all are taking less sugar for health reasons. The investment demand evaporates as quickly as it rises. Those are paper traders in derivatives, have no relevance to real life situations. Why do you want to buy the stocks which have multiplied 3 to 4 times? The stocks relative to a commodity rises much faster and ahead of the commodity itself. Do not try to catch the running train – you will destroy yourself.

Dear Sir,

DCB Q3 results are out. (http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532772)
Please comment on this as well as on your call on this.

Regards
Srinivas
Bangalore, INDIA

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 16, 2010
Not very strong result. The activities are going down because of spurt in NPA – Gross and Net. A puzzling question – if the Bank is reporting losses why does it have to pay tax of Rs 107 millions? Something is amiss which is not possible to trace from interim numbers. Another is, what is difference between Gross NPA and Net NPA? Normally, when an advance is classified as NPA, the banks are not authorized to take interest as income.

My call you are referring to was purely short term call based on stock, sector and market strength. Since the result is out, the stock may gain after initial 5% fall. The bank has completed raising of capital from QIP. It has yet to announce FPO which may not be below the QIP price of Rs 34 or about.

The stock may remain sideways for time being except when FPO is announced. Better to switch to others such as Ispat Ind (45 days) or Abhishek Ind (9 months)

Dear Sir
Did i write something wrong in my previous email, I did not get reply for my query.
Brgds
Philip Ranjan, Fujairah,UAE

Kalidas Replies…
Make your enquiry meaningful. When did you enquire – write at least date.

Dear Kalidas Ji,
Would you approve this portfolio or do you suggest if this needs realignment.

SBI 50 @900 CMP:2144
COLGATE PALMOLIVE 80 @324 CMP:683
GOLDEX ETF 35 @1687 CMP:1663
PETRONET LNG 1000 @73 CMP:81
ABHISHEK IND 1000 @14 CMP:16.8
I have been holding SBI and Colgate palmolive for about 2 years. Last three are thanks to your suggestions.

Kalidas Says…Saturday, 16 Jan,2010
Hold all for the time being. Sell SBI (35), Colgate (50) before Friday. Buy back SBI in correction <1600. Colget your choice.
I sold non performing stocks and switched to these.

Thanks for your time.
Regards
Raghu, Bangalore, India

Dear Kalidasji,
Thanks Kalidasji for your reply.
I was curious to learn that.I donot know abcd of FNO.So wanted to gain some insight.
Regards,
Awadhesh,Mumbai,India

Dear Kalidasji,
 
Can I divide my money to be invested equally between RNRL and PETRONET  equally at present market price or it should be done after 21st Jan 2010 ?
Best regarsds,
 
dolly, Bangalore, India
15th Jan 2010

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 15, 2010
Do it now, because tnese stocks could make fast money in next 4 days or so. You may reduce the position by next Friday or so. Again it depends on the markets in USA, but immediate risk is less, though overall risk is increasing.

Sir,
For your information
Regards
Badrinath, Bengaluru, India

KALIDAS SAYS ….FRIDAY, JANUARY 15, 2010
(1) Kindly do not reproduce article verbatim. Instead provide only HTML link – do not embed. Also capitalize your city name always. What Geithner said is a public knowledge – broadcast live by CNBC, Bloomberg and Fox News.

Geithner says was not involved on AIG disclosures

Click to enlarge photo

By Glenn Somerville and David Lawder
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Thursday the bailout of insurer American International Group was not meant to help out bank counterparties and that he had no role in the decision not to disclose payments made to banks.
In his first public comments since e-mails surfaced last week showing the New York Federal Reserve — when Geithner was at the helm — advised AIG not to disclose payments it made to banks after receiving a taxpayer bailout, he said the insurer was legally obligated to make the payments.
“We had no effective legal means to step in and prevent default (at AIG) … without helping this firm meet all its legal obligations,” Geithner told CNBC television.
The e-mails, which showed lawyers for the New York Fed advising AIG not to disclose payments that gave 100 cents on the dollar to banks holding AIG credit default swaps, have touched off a firestorm of controversy.
House of Representatives Oversight Committee Chairman Edolphus Towns, who has called the payments a “backdoor bailout,” said Geithner would testify before his panel on Jan. 27.
Towns issued a statement saying several other witnesses have been invited to testify at the hearing. They include Thomas Baxter, general counsel for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Elias Habayeb, former chief financial officer of AIG Financial Services Group and Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).
Towns said the hearing would examine the collapse and federal rescue of AIG, in particular the compensation of AIG credit default swap counterparties.
In an interview with National Public Radio, Geithner said the aid for AIG was not intended to help out big banks that held its credit default swaps.
“If the government had not stepped in to act to prevent the failure of AIG, this crisis would have been much more damaging,” he said.
The government rescued the failing insurer in September 2008 at a cost to taxpayers that has risen to $180 billion, a rescue that has infuriated the public and lawmakers alike.
Prodded by the panel’s top Republican, California Representative Darrell Issa, the committee wants Geithner to answer questions about the New York Fed’s role in the decision not to disclose the payments in filings with securities regulators.
After prompting from regulators, AIG did disclose that payments to some big banks were made at par. Geithner told CNBC that was the right thing to do.
Towns has also called for other New York Fed officials to testify, including the regional Fed bank’s top lawyer, and has subpoenaed the New York Fed for information on the payments, including Geithner’s e-mails, phone logs and meeting notes.
 
INQUIRY WIDENS
A second House panel on Thursday said it would also look into the matter.
“We now have the time to put this back on the agenda,” House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank said. The Massachusetts Democrat said, however, that Geithner’s role in the bailout was overshadowed by “the two men that outranked him,” Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and then-U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
News of Geithner’s decision to testify came as a group of 25 House Republicans urged the Fed to grant them the same access as members of the Senate Banking Committee to documents detailing the government’s rescue of AIG.
In a letter to Bernanke, the lawmakers said allegations the Fed sought to suppress information about counterparty payments are “deeply troubling.” Members of the Senate Banking Committee have been allowed to view documents relating to AIG at the Fed.
The controversy over the e-mails has put Geithner under intense scrutiny. The Obama administration has said Geithner had already recused himself from AIG-related matters because he had already been nominated to be Treasury secretary, a point Geithner stressed on Thursday.
“I had no involvement in that basic decision because … my appointment to this job had been announced,” he told NPR.
Asked by CNBC whether he had ever considered resigning, Geithner said: “That’s a judgment the president has to make. As long as I have a chance to help him … fix these problems, I’ll be honored to do it.”
The White House has repeatedly said Geithner enjoys the president’s support.

Dear Kalidasji,

I remember in month of November’09 people were posting queries regarding option(F&O) and suggesting strategy.
You said you will come with better strategy.
I am waiting for your analysis on this.
If you have some time can you please  share your view on this.

Thanks,
Awadhesh,Mumbai,India

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 15, 2010
I did not get time. I may instead write small eBook because the article can not provide that much space. Further, F&O is not my favorite subject because readers could possibly lose fortune. One should now remain more on Market Put side by next Thursday or so for February series.

Dear Kalidasji,
Please let me know about Nagarjuna Fertilizers, Unitech, Andhra Bank, IFCI, GujNRE Coke where I have chance to double my money over period of year from the present level?
Still I can enter in to PETRONET LNG and make double my money in 6 months?

Neena Jain
Indore, India
15th Jan 2010
Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 15, 2010
Not except IFCI. Read my report on Petronet – see under stockwatch in the sidebar. It contains all information.Yes, you can enter at 81. Do not ask me absurd question whether I can double my money in 6 months. This is stock market, not casino

Sir,
A suggestion. Just like there is a required ‘Name’ field to be able to post queries/comments in this blog, please also add a mandatory ‘City’ and ‘Country’ field and a mandatory spell-check. I know its the duty of the posters but still it might be useful to enforce something which you find so irritating rather than shutting the blog down.
Pawan,
Delhi,India

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 15, 2010
I can not do that. There is already spell check facility over comment box. further, everyone is using some word processor like Word, WordPerfect, Open Office etc.

Further, people can download a simple freeware “PHRASE EXPRESS” where you record a phrase and give it “Auto Text” of your choice. When you use abbreviation like say “kc” which I am using (without quotes), it writes automatically ” Kalidas comments: ” or when I write “scm” (without quote), it will write “Spell check your message and capitalize the words properly before you post.” This is why you see my fast reply and same phrase at all the time.

The readers can use this free edition of phrase express and use it to remember “Name, City, Country” and Date (with or without time) as a single phrase. If they use Auto Text as “sig” then when they type “sig” (without quote) entire phrase as their name, city, country and date will be written automatically without any error. Use the autotext without vowels like a,e,i,o,u which we normally use in daily life.

If the readers want my attention or reply, they will have to comply with my basic requirements. Those who do not observe these norms make me upset and even angry.

Dear Kalidas Sir,
Request your view on the following stocks which are in loss making , I am almost sold with rest of my portfolio except Gold  (~2.5L).
RNRL  – 750 nos  Avg.Buy price : 85.18  CMP : 73.85  approx (-13% )
Suzlon Energy : 175 nos Avg.Buy price : 135.50  CMP : 91.60  approx (-32%)
Do you suggest to swap  with other stocks (Petronet, DishTV , IFCI , as suggested on this blog) or bear the loss now and re-buy in correction. As I am holding cash I can further invest as well.  
Regards,
Atharva, Pune , India
 
Sell 75 Suzlon and swap it to RNRL
Buy 375 RNRL from fresh funds
Hold Suzlon for a while

Dear Sir,
What is your opinion of Ambuja cement(BSE:500425)? I am holding 325 shares at 109 and CMP is 108 (I am holding it since 2007).
Thanks,
v8r, Stockholm, Sweden.
 
Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 15, 2010
Certainly a good stock, but ever since it is taken over by Swiss company, the interest in this counter is gone. New owner may not be agreeable to market making. This company will be ultimately privatized, I believe when the credit crunch eases. Keep about 125 just in case, and swap 200 shares into Satyam/Petronet/RNRL/Essar Shipping.Unless a stock is volatile, it does not make money.

Sir,  I am a regular browser of your website but unfortunately not computer savvy. Hence  I request you to ignore any obvious mistake in format and please reply my query.
 
I hold 1000 maytas infra share (bse code 532907)purchased at 148        cmp 205.
 
Please inform me whether I should hold it for long term in view of management control being handed over to IL&FS as some on moneycontrolmessage board say it will cross 2000 in 3 years time.  Your detailed opinion would be highly appreciated and also whether I should add the same stock or reduce my holding in it.
Thanking you,
Pradeep Shetty, Bangalore, India
15-01-2010

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 15, 2010
MMB message writers are often people from market making stock brokers who spread the rumors after taking some positions. They are rumormongers. Ask them why would it go to 2000, they would not know.

A good stock to own at the moment. Sell only when you get the first signs of impending crash.

Sir,
Please give some comments on my earlier post dated 13 Jan. One line comment is also OK.
Just wanted to remind. No complains even if you do not answer. Thanks.

Sir,You have mentioned that L&T is overvalued stock. But I see that future of L&T is very bright. And so is the scrip.L&T has entered into businesses such as power, shipbuilding, nuclear, defence, etc. which looks very promising. To add to it, it will be forming separate companies by 2012-13 from current group of divisions.I understand that any scrip is valued more based on future growth rather than current status.Your comments please.Regards,

Gaurav, Mumbai, INDIA
Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 15, 2010
While appending signatures, please add country also. I have added manually. Do not expect any reply if you miss this protocol. I will shut down this blog, if the readers do not observe the basic discipline. PERIOD

A reader should not take offense if some time some reply is missed or the question is too general to reply within 8 lines. I would like to make reply as short as possible.

LT is a good company, but it is too expensive. Such engineering company can trade at the most 12 to 14 times P/E ratio but LT trades at 36 times. Every share has value regardless the quality of the company and its management. Further, I somehow nurture the feeling that it has some hidden losses on derivatives for which no provision has been made. Further, the company does have top line growth but not bottom line. Again, when the base of the company is so large, the prospects of humongous growth is difficult to achieve. It is easy to double the sales from 10 to 20 (100%) but not so easy from 34000 crores to 68,000 crores.

Further, LT being unable to generate real growth, it is trying to sell of the subsidiaries by spinning off and give papers – shares of subsidiaries. This is nothing but wider distribution of papers which have collapsed recently.

In highly inflated overseas market, where my own expectation is for huge corrections, the very first casualty will be such high flying stocks. Look at the last meltdown – this stock dropped from 3200 to less than 600 (my projection was 300 on pre-bonus basis). In crash,the pressure on mutual funds increases tremendously, and they being unable to sell mid/small cap stocks, they sell out large cap high flying stocks like LT, Reliance, SBI etc.

Further, I am old – can not afford to be aggressive as young turks in the Indian market. If I can make my money 3 times in IFCI, 5 times in Petronet, 10 times in LIC Housing Finance, 3 times in DishTV or 4 times in Ashok Leyland (I suggested strongly at 14 last year – today it is 56), I do not need to invest in LT – will it give me that much return.

May be it is God. But even God does not give return to all his worshippers. He always sleeps – look at Haiti. When we go to the temple, we ring the bell to wake him up – he does not wake up on his own. So I believe in stocks lesser mortal than God.

The present crisis has shown that there is nothing like “Too big to Fail”. That is the message for all markets, including India.

Sir,

 I am currently residing in Singapore and have ICICI direct account in India Which broker or bank i should open an account with, in order to buy South African Rand zero coupon bonds ?

Thanks
Bobby, Singapore, 07:28 AM SGT

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 15, 2010
Why do you want to go to India? You can do it from Singapore itself. Contact any broker or bank like HSBC/UBS/Morgan Stanley/Merrill Lynch/RBC Dominion Securities or call up South African consulate to locate any SA based bank like Standard Bank (different from SC) or Nedbank or any SA Broker in Singapore.

Dear Kalidas Sir,
Thanks for the detailed reply. Will surely also check with someone else on property in Mumbai.  It seems very overvalued to me as of now and properties I saw one year ago are still lying vacant in areas like Bandra, Khar, Santacruz.
Sanjay
Mumbai, India
15/01/2010

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 15, 2010
This is when the huge correction comes. Either there is local event, international financial event or natural event like earthquakes in Haiti. It happened in Ahmedabad, it can happen to Mumbai too. I do not want to say it will but it could.

Hi Mr.Anil,
Actually, I tried first rebalancing my portfolio using your excel sheet. But, I don’t know which of the stocks to keep and which one to sell. Sorry for not being a wise investor. I read in this forum several times that there could be a crash in stock market. So keeping this in view, instead of shifting the money from one stock to another, don’t you think its better to sell my 31 stocks and sit on cash. This is in order to limit the number of stocks to 20. Can you please have just a look for the stocks which i will sell in next 2-3-4 trading days.
Sell list
Idea,Renuka sugar, Skumar N, Heidelberg cement, Andhra cement, Gujsidhee, Ntpc,Nhpc, Arveva, Mirc elec, Zicom, Ballarpur inds, Gtlinfra,reliance inds, Reliance infra, Reliance capital, Idfc, Allahabad bank, Msp steel, Sunflag Iron, Unitech, Vijaya bank, Uco bank, Maharashtra bank, Bhagyanagar, Gnfc, Nocil, Noida toll, India bull finance, Shanti gear, Pipavav shipyard
Hold list
Ispat, Rcom, bharti,Balrampur chini, Binani cement, gmrinfra, rnrl, rpower, Arvind, Rdev cable, praj, 3iinfo, cranes soft, ifci, dish tv, petronet, essar oil, ibn18, ksk energy, cals refinery
Sorry for such a big query.
Regards,
Nadim Azami
Kuwait
14th January, 2010

Looks like your views on market taking a U turn downside by Jan end are shared by many.
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=14149
 
 

Hi Mr.Anil,
I don’t see the reply of my query. I am posting it again. Please let me know your view on Gtl Infra I do have 6500 units @39 Rs, cmp is 45. I have been holding it for almost 6-7 months. I have another query as well. I have 51 companies stocks. I was having 75 earlier. Now i reduced it to 51. I have taken around 25 lacs out of market but still have 52 lacs in stocks and 12 lacs in mutual funds. Over all i do have 63 lacs now in market, some of the stocks are at loss and some are at profit. Overall presently my portfolio is up around 8-9 percent. I am very confused and don’t know what to do. A suggestion from you would be of great help to me.
Regards,
Nadim Azami
Kuwait

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
Reply already posted for one query. You have too many stocks – bring it down to < 15 and increase it only in major correction. Use my article “Rebalancing Portfolio in depressed market” to restructure your portfolio – it contains Do It Yourself tools – easy to implement it. Go to the Download Pool and search the article and spreadsheet. After cutting down the portfolio to 20 at the most, come back to me again
14th January, 2010

Sir,
 
Please let me know about Nagarjuna Fertilizers, Unitech, Andhra Bank, IFCI, GujNRE Coke where I have chance to double my money over period of year from the present level?
Still I can enter in to PETRONET LNG and make double my money in 6 months?

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
No reply is given for ignoring this forum’s protocol that requres the message to end with Signature (name), (City) and (Country) invariably.

Read the Index page above and follow it diligently. If you violate these basic norms again, your comments will be transferred to spam/trash folder.

Dear Kalidas Sir,
1. I wanted to ask you your views on Austral Coke? It was caught in scam but stock price is down now. Does it make good investment?
2.  What is your view on residential Mumbai real estate?
Thanks.
Sanjay,
Mumbai,India
14/01/2010

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
Austral Coke – the price is down due to stock being forward split 1:10 with new face value Rs 1 from July 2009. The pre-split price is therefore 9.53 x10 = Rs 95.30. The company reportedly owes huge tax liability to Income Tax department running into over Rs 1000 crores which looks far fetched. SEBI also barred them from raising capital which is an unconstitutional step and violative of Article 19 of Basic freedom to conduct the free trade under Constitution of India. But in India, anything goes.

Take a chance – the stock is not too cheap nor too expensive. They are in growth sector. Honestly, I do not like the management of the type manning the company. That is another matter. Take a chance – you will make good money at this price when other legal matters are sorted out.

No views on Mumbai property market. It all depends in which pocket the property is. I am not property expert. Direct your question to knowledgeable people.

Dear Sir,

If the market is going to fall to the levels you mentioned in one of the blogs upto 50 % and more, do you feel that the stocks you mention in stock observatory are still worth buying for LT? 
 Is it not possible to get them at a lower price range? I have Rs. 2 lakhs for investment, I would request your advice on how much to invest now and what is to be invested after 21st Jan.

Thanks,
Sarit,Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
You are lining up Apples with Oranges. ST calls are ST calls – for traders. LT investors may use it for the point of entry and sell 50% in rally so that their overall cost for LT holding is considerably reduced.

Nevertheless the stocks like Petronet are worth investing. May be you can spare Rs 80,000 or so. If the counter moves well, sell it out completely and retain cash for future entry at correction in same counter.

Dear Sir,
I do apologize – I have reposted it with signature as per your comment.

Happy New Year!  I have been silently reading all your comments.  I hope you remember the enquiry I had on the Motorola shares and unfortunately since I was travelling I have not actually taken any action with those shares.  I was reading your comment that you do expect a big correction on/after the 21st January.  I would really appreciate your advise on what I should do at this present time with these shares (worth USD$100k) as the stock price has dropped from the last time we spoke in November.  I am also holding a small amount in Citic Bank, Hong Kong. 
I would really appreciate your advise.
Thank You very much
Nisha, Hong Kong

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
I will reply to you this weekend. In the meanwhile I would sell part of Motorola (Say 1500) and take a chance or risk by buying Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mae (FRE) ONLY if you have risk appetite. FNM has been given lifeline by US government by giving them almost a blank Cheque beyond $400 millions (upto $ 1 trillions). Citi may not be saved, but Fannie Mae will be saved.

FNM stock is trading at about $ 1.15. You will get about 11000 shares. If the FNM survives as expected, you may make fabulous money. In fact I will sell another 1000 Motorola and use the proceeds to buy Freddie mae (similar to FNM) which is trading near same level. These stocks used to trade in the past beyond 50 level. With almost 20,000 shares of these State Sponsored agencies, you are taking $ 20,000 risk with potential reward of 200,000 in next 5 years. AGAIN, if you have risk appetite.

for Motorola, I will advise you later this weekend.

Dish TV-pp BSE code -890127

Instead of buying Dish TV fully paid shares at Rs 44\- ( between Dec 3 -15) I bought 40,000 PP shares @ Rs 32.85\- . My understanding is that final call of Rs 8\- is to be paid sometimes in Feb 2010 or March 2010.then these shares will be converted into fully paid. Partly paid shares usually do have less liquidity but these are offered at significant discount and best suited for long term small investors who spend little more time in collecting these shares in small lots.

Sir I would like your valuable comment for the benefit of small investors like me who follow you blindly.

thanks and regards

Anil Gupta
New Delhi

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010 The trouble with the PP shares is that they are often illiquid. They also trade at premium at times. I do not know the volume of PP shares of Dish TV. If I were you, I would sell the PP shares and replace them with regular shares which are easily sale able in rally. As against PP shares, there are alternatives to investors which offer 8 times leverage, such as Futures and options.

Do not follow me blindly. And, you are not small investor holding 40,000 shares @ 32 = Rs 13 lakhs or so.

Happy Makar Sankranti !

I’m holding 200 RPOWER @ 272/- (after bonus price). From the fall of 2008 every script recoverd in my portfolio; it  is the only one drag behind. What to do, average it out or swap with some other ? I can hold it for for next 12-18 months, if any hope. Please suggest…
BSE Scrip Code:532939   NSE: RPOWER  Company:Reliance
Power
CMP : 158.15 INR

Warm regard
Jogesh 
NOIDA, India

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
You have to double the money from current level which is not so easy for stocks under pressure due to brotherly disputes.

May be you can swap to Petronet (Top Grade) or DishTV (B grade) or partly in Ispat Industries (C grade) which can double in less time. for instance, selling 200@160 will get you Rs 32000. Invest another Rs 32000 in the revised counters. Now you cost is not only averaged in new stocks so that when they move, you will gain quickly, and you may be making a decent profit too.

Alternatively, BUY RNRL instead, parent of RPOWER. You may make more money rather quickly by buying RNRL instead of staying with RPOWER. Same group, same industry, different names. By selling RPOWER you will get 2.05 times RNRL shares for every share of RPOWER held by you. RNRL is very nimble and may rise by 100% in one month in good market whereas RPOWER will be a big liability – it is an elephant, hippo, rhino with lots of fats around it.

Dear Sir

I need your advise on the following stocks I am currently holding. Can I sell some/all of them or rebalance to get a better mix for the portfolio?

Dish TV – Quantity 1800, Purchase Price 43.7, CMP 46.65
IFCI - Quantity 2700, Purchase Price 56.8, CMP 55.15
Kalindee Rail - Quantity 450, Purchase Price 139.5, CMP 216.6
Petronet – Quantity 3000, Purchase Price 72.6, CMP 81.6
Satyam - Quantity 1200, Purchase Price 56.6, CMP 120.0
Sujana Towers – Quantity 2400, Purchase Price 23.0, CMP 54.0
Tata Tele - Quantity 3000, Purchase Price 27.1, CMP 29.5
Visa Steel - Quantity 1800, Purchase Price 29.2, CMP 42.5

Thanks

Vikas, Dubai, UAE, 14 January 2010, 8:50am

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
Regret, unable to provide complete portfolio solution. Please refer to my article “Rebalancing Portfolio…” and be guided accordingly. It contains step by step instructions.

My views are also well known for at least4 stocks you have. This is last time I am providing portfolio solution (I can not give you details and basis here)

Dish TV, IFCI, Petronet and Satyam – read stock observatory and be guided accordingly.

Sell TTML all and buy 60% Ispat Industries and 40% Abhishek Industries. Also EVINIX if the stock falls below 4.65 (TTML has started going up today on heavy volume. If you have not sold, hold it and sell it in rally in mid 30s)

I do not know other counters. However, you are sitting on pretty good profit, Reduce the position by 60% in next 7 days (before 21Jan10) and use some cash to buy Ispat Industries, and even Dish TV < 48, Cairns Energy, Essar Shipping, RNRL.

Hold the Kalindi Rails till Railway budget is out.

Dear Anilji,
 
Now we are hearing some noises from westerners about China that it will may have some problem. (Link) It’s look like Deteriorating US condition now affecting China very hard. How you read these observations? In case there is some serious trouble in China, what can be it’s effect on gold price?
Thanks.
 
Parag
Surat, India
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
This question is more of discussion type and will take lot of space. My views on gold are very well known in the form of article on gold and various exchanges from time to time.

When something is wrong with some one, he tries to find fault with others to divert the attention from himself. US is following exactly same policy. These noises are made because China has served notice on USA that they will not be buying further T Bonds unless efforts are made to stabilize the dollar. Only today, we saw Chinese Prime Minister expressing his worries about China’s nearly 50% of its reserve in dollars. This is why US is trying to squeeze Chinese nose.

And if something happens, what China will do, they will dump dollar and bring their currency home, even at loss. They will dump dollar, dollar will plummet, so gold will rise – it is as simple as that. Chinese worries about dollar is single most reason for its action of buying mines and metals all around Australia and Africa. They are also buying copper not because of growth but to make bullets and armaments which uses copper at the maximum.

What happens if you lose job or income source – you fall back on savings and sell gold, property etc which were used for investment purpose. Same thing happens to a country.

Sir,
You are bullish Gold, Gas and oil stocks are good for Longer term investment. Kindly request your views on
 

Assam company – Diversified it self to Tea, Oil & gas.
Agee Gold Ref – Starting up a refinery plant for Gold and silver.
 
Regards
Mohan (Happy), London, UK

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
(1) Not much known about this company. its website is just weird – presents only high tech items. No opinion.
(2) Not known. No result turned out by my source.
Whydo you want to go out for unknown or little known names at the height of the market? When you have more than 20 good quality stocks available for song, why go after mirage?

Dear Sir,
I want to be a devil’s advocate to put forward the following points.  Please treat this as obeservations to challenge what is logically and rationally visible but may prove otherwise due to not thought of or ignored reasons.
a) World market is a hostage to US government’s way of making the market,and over past 12 months we have seen that US government is able to make/move the market the way it wants to against all the contrarian beliefs of many experts/naysayers. Despite all the data (unemployment,Housing,retail sales etc) indicating that economy is still in shambles but US gov is able to keep the hope alive by moving the market up.
b) US government, with it’s printed stimulus money is able to make the numbers look better, be it quarterly GDP growth, Dollar index, or Bond prices. It was able to make the Banks return back the TARP money (even though in equity form) and improve the sentiments worldwide.
c) I see no reason why US Gov will not be able to dictate the financial results of giants like BofA or Citigroup to be appear to look good, even though it’ll be paper profits (Anyways who cares if it helps to build the sentiments and make people to lend their money to these banks). But If US gov has come this far in supporting the financial market they would not let the annual result season to spoil the party, whatever it takes.
d) With result season out of the way, stimulus continuing full steam and prinitng press running overtime things will have to fall in place slowly and steadly. This may happen with emerging market taking the lead with their surplus and untapped market. US would then chug along and doomsday scenario might pass. Easy and cheap credit may help the real economy to come out of ICU and show signs of real recovery. US government can anyway keep the stimulus oxygen ON till the time patient is out of the coma. All deficits can be bridged by printing money. Issue of tackling inflation can wait till the time it really arrives on the scene.
e) Even though prinitng of dollars is depreciating the real value of the dollar for those countries whose most of the savings are in dollars, but who can afford to challenge this. It’s like riding a tiger not daring to get off else would be eaten up. Nevertheless US gov is able to make the forex market too in it’s favour (by manipulating the dollar to remain strong) and China/Japan and other countries whose savings are in dollars have no reasons to complain atleast at this point of time.
f) The way big banks and Fed are able to manuipulate Gold prices (it fell $22 yeasterday in US market hours), looks like free market is a myth and will alway remain a myth. It might be  a wrong strategy to expect market to move based only on real economy without bothering what the big daddy wants. Market may not return to represent the real economy in whole of our life time and might be allowed to only when the economy has also improved.
g) One last but valid point is that the money being printed would have a flooding effect in the world and besides causing commodity/oil/food inflation may also inflate the stock market and keep it that way for a longer time. Stock Indices should also be seen and compared as inflation adjusted numbers and not as an absolute number. Dow at 3000, 25 years back and now is not comparable seeing the available float of money then and now.
As I said, I want to challenge my rational conclusion (that stock market worlwide should come down by atleast 50-60% to reflect the real economy) with the above contrarian thinking. I would be obliged for your introspective observations on the above and on the probabilty of the stock market not falling more than 5-8%, instead consolidate, and rise even further this year and after.
With due regards
NSri
Pune, India

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
Your belief that US can call the shots all the time is misconceived. You say that “All deficits can be bridged by printing money.” Deficits (financing) create the money, money can not bridge (or repay) the deficits. It is a creation of new money which ultimately abets the inflation. You must know that we are living in deflationary environments, and yet the prices of almost all soft commodities (from wheat to rice to vegetables to oils), crudie oil prices, all metals and raw materials are rising. In short, the deflation is accompanied by inflation – due to excessive printing of money.

The stock market may fall between 50% to 80% this time. There is no recovery, there is anti-dote. The recession is going to go down much deeper and it may last for 10 to 15 years. Please remember that trillions of dollars have been destroyed.

Your views are noted. We have basic disagreements.

Hello Sir,
I do have 6500 units of Gtl infra @ 39 Rs, cmp is 43. I have been holding it for almost 6-7 months. Would you be able to suggest, what should be my stratregy in this stock?
Regards,
Nadim Azami
Kuwait
13th jan, 2010

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
It is in news now. I have not followed it. give me some time – 3 days to voice my opinion.

What are the future prospects of the property rates? Do you expect them to fall or rise. I am considering buying a property under construction near big bazaar, Lower Parel. Kindly guide me.

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably. No reply will be given if you do not observe normal protocol.

Also word your question properly – Are you talking about Property Rates (meaning Government taxes) or market rates. Be clear of what you are asking.

Hi Sir,
Sometime back I requested your inputs on a share ” Ruchi Infrastructure”.  Off late it is on a continuous ride.  My average price for it is 38 rs and have some 6000 shares. Now it is trading at 64. I have booked some profit as well in this counter (booked 1000 at 67 rs). However, I am not sure, if I should ride the rally or book some more profits. Please check, if you can provide your viewpoint on this share.  I feel it is very much like Essar shipping wherein, besides its normal business prospects, it will have confirmed business from its group company Ruchi Soya.

My Apologies for the mistake earlier, but system didn’t allow me to rectify the mistake I had made. One Suggestion, please add a feature wherein, people can delete there own comment. This will help avoid lot of furstration and annoyance for you.

Thanks,
Vinod
Bangalore, India

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
A good company in good business with little competition, but the stock looks expensive. The stock has quadrupled in one year. Wait for major correction to buy – not now because downside risk is too high. Keep it on your watch list. This is preliminary opinion from cursary glance.

Dear Kalidas,
Gentel reminder regarding my earlier post.
post detail:

Dear Kalidas,
I am currently on IT project in US. I have 90% of my assets are in FD in India most of them are of 10-10.5% interest rate, and 5-6% are in stock. I have never invested in gold, as you advised I am going to invest in gold soon. I am also seating with $10k in my checking account, I am not going to staying in US for long, Could you please suggest is it the correct time to transfer the money in INR?
I am 24 year old and with no much of the family responsibility, Is there any other investing opportunity other than gold at this moment?
Jinal
USA
8th JAN 2010
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 09, 2010
First you do one thing. Open an account with eTrade or Ameritrade while you are in USA. Right now you are favorably placed in retaining most of your savings in bank deposits.

I will come back to you later in 2 days. Visit your question here again.You have given very concise details. This is how the query should be.

Jinal
Chicago, USA
13th JAN 2010

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
You did not reply whether you opened account with eTrade or Ameritrade (or any broker). First thing first. Do that and come back again. Note: I am sorry for the above reply. I will reply by tomorrow.

Dear Sir ,

How much do you expect the market to fall starting 21-Jan. Will it be something like 21-Jan-2008 to 23-Jan-2008 when the markets fell 20% in just 3 days.

Two years back when the markets fell everyone including the US Fed/treasury was not aware of the extend of the crisis then , but this time will the US Fed or the US govt allow the markets to fall significantly.

Will there not be any scope for the US Fed or the US govt to take preemptive action to hold the global markets steady and rising.

Please share your views/thoughts..

Regards
Priya
Hyderabad,India

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 14, 2010
Yes, it can fall 7 to 9 days continuously to lose 6000 points. US Treasury and Fed are not God. They knew everything and had 2 years to repair that damage, but they could not. They are lame duck before the market forces which are more like Tsunami.

Hi Kalidasji,

I am holding of Suzlon and Ispat.
Suzlon Energy – Purchased  37 @ 134.2 – CMP – 93.30.
Ispat Industries -  Purchased 140 @ 35.87 – CMP – 22.95

As per your replies to few posts, these stocks are having some upside. Do you suggest me to average the share price?

Thanks,
Kasuhik V, Hyderabad, India

Dear Mr.Kalidas,

First Let me thank you for  providing us your Valuable insights  gained from your vast experience and wisdom. Moreover you are doing it selfless which is a rare phenomenon in this business world.
Even though, you never encouraged F&O trading. I entered in to F&O of Petronet, after your advice on the same. I got convinced with your observation -that this stock consolidated around 70 for a long time and at any time it can break out. As I am not having sufficient cash for a long term investment, I took liberty to invest some short term cash with a strict stop loss for this short term action. I bought one January lot @ 73.30 and booked profit at 81.05/-today. Thank you so much.
 
 Even I observed that Dish TV also appreciated more than 10% after your comment in stock observatory.
 
Krishna
Hyderabad, India.

Sir
Please let me know about the prospects of  Hindustan Zinc.
Weather I can buy at current rate?
Thanking you
V K S Rajan
Bangalore, India.

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Not now.

Hi Sir,
Sometime back I requested your inputs on a share ” Ruchi Infrastructure”.  Off late it is on a continuous ride.  My average price for it is 38 rs and have some 6000 shares. Now it is trading at 64. I have booked some profit as well in this counter (booked 1000 at 67 rs). However, I am not sure, if I should ride the rally or book some more profits. Please check, if you can provide your viewpoint on this share.  I feel it is very much like Essar shipping wherein, besides its normal business prospects, it will have confirmed business from its group company Ruchi Soya.

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 13, 2010
You did not append your signature. I will not reply

Dear Sir,
I feel that posting the real name is too strict a rule. Some people may not want to disclose their real identity.
I request you to consider relaxing this rule.
Best regards,
abreturn, Shyam Garg, Stockholm, Sweden.

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Alright. I will accept the short name or nickname. But something should be mentioned. for your information, you have to disclose full identity when someone wants to post on famous websites like BBC. We are not verifying the real names, but it looks very funny if someone writes like XXX or abc (I am not disclosing real letters used by some). But City and Country should be mentioned, so that the surveyors and we know the geographical reach of our blog.

Hello Sir,

China have increase CRR  & potential US government levy on banks.

Will it have some effect on market in near future ?

Best Regards,
Guleria, Delhi, India
3:22 PM , 13-01-2010

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Most central banks are loathe to raise interest rates, because most of the governments are having huge deficits which are financed by market borrowings. If they raise the rates, they have to pay more interest on their borrowings. So now, they found a convenient route – raising CRR or Cash Reserve Ratio. When the money is withdrawn from the system, the market rates rise. But the government does not have to pay more.

This is the main reason the governments world over do not want to raise interest rates and do not want to reduce taxes (that is, they do not want to lose income and do not want to increase expenses in the form of higher interest)

This is the final tool for defense. Even Fed started allowing Term Deposits and forgot the Discount and Federal Funds rate. When the market rates rise too high, say 10%, who will lend the money at cheaper rates say at 0% to 2%? That is the final call for precipitous collapse.

By raising CRR, the government is postponing its own rate rise at the cost of market rates, and it is market rates that determine the final interest rate structure.

To answer your question, it will not have immediate effect on the market. Most banks are flush with the money with no borrowers. In Hong Kong, for instance, we are getting offers from banks like HSBC or Standard Chartered Bank offering “unsecured loans” from HK$ 800,000 to HK$ 12 Millions at interest rates from 6% to 7% per annum. Tax loans are offered at 0%. There is still no demand for loans, So the money remains with the bank and they would not mind having more with the Central Bank.

Dear Sir,
Wish You And Your Family A Happy & Successful New Year 2010.
I am from New Delhi, India.
I am holding following stocks:
qty./ purchase price/  Cmp
BALRAMPUR CHINi          50   /    137.30      /  134.30
ASHOK LEYLAND              100 /      55.00   /     53.10
INDIAN HOTELS                 50  /       105.75   /    102.00
please guide me if I can hold it still further or book the loss.
 
 Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 13, 2010
You have not followed the normal protocol which require you to append your signature in the form os name, city and country at the end. I am fed up with such posts. Repost your query properly. This will be deleted

Apologies, i have  posted this query under wrong section , so re-posting again.

Dear Kalidas Sir,
I require your view on one  of the stocks which I am observing  over a years time or more.
Sesa Goa CMP : 400 , 52wk H/L (Rs) 421.50 – 67.25 ,
PE ratio :16.43
EPS (Rs) :24.68
Face Value (Rs) 1 
Might be due to indecision I have never invested , but the stock has been doing consistently  good in its past and present  state. Is it worth to invest  once the market tanks and stock corrects. 

Regards,
Atharva, Pune, India

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 13, 2010
For some reasons, I do not like this company. I do not suggest to anyone.

Hello Mr Anil,
If you can please explain your rationale behind the opinion that Ispat would rise after April/June this year as this Company has made losses 3 out of last 4 years and its Book Value is negative as well.
Thanks,
Anup Maheshwari
New Jersey, US, 12th Jan 2010

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 13, 2010 Stock market looks to the future, not the past like “Jaane kahan gaye wo din” from Mera Naam Joker. Wait for the full report recommendation in a few days. The Stock Observatory is a forum for 4 lines only – nothing much can be written. It is a short call

Sir,
Now that you are suggesting “hold” for couple of stocks with expectation of short term gains,  should I assume that this is also a “buy” call on small corrections ? Should I aslo assume that the “Sell” call you gave last month is on “hold” for some specific stocks that you are suggesting ?  I sold off my RCOM, SATYAM and RNRL in percentages as per your suggestion. Should I buy back SATYAM and RCOM on correction ? 
Best regards,
Chetana
Bangalore, India

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Sale call applies to every stock regardless. You can maintain only some core position in suggested counters. Stock Observatory is only for short term trades. They are not substitute for long term hold. If you have sold at higher price and they have fallen back, then you can buy back for holding few days only. Otherwise stay away. My Sale call stand but it was postponed to Jan 21. May be by Jan 18, one may another 40% in two stages. You buy back only when they fall.

Readers,

Kindly write your real name (not initials)(Nick name in bracket) , City and Country at the end of message. 

Your post will not be answered and may be even deleted. I am implementing this strictly from 1 Jan, 2010. Please excuse me.

Append your signature as
<Real Name (Nick Name) > , <City>, <Country>

Anil Selarka (Kalidas), Hong Kong

Sir,
You have mentioned that L&T is overvalued stock. But I see that future of L&T is very bright. And so is the scrip.
L&T has entered into businesses such as power, shipbuilding, nuclear, defence, etc. which looks very promising. To add to it, it will be forming separate companies by 2012-13 from current group of divisions.
I understand that any scrip is valued more based on future growth rather than current status.
Your comments please.
Regards,
Gaurav, Mumbai

Hi Kalidas ji,
My question is regarding INFLATION in India, in 2008 when inflation was spiking to dizzy heights, RBI and other monetary policy makers reduced Interest Rates and cut CRR to control it, as a result it went to negative territory too for a while, I am aware that financial meltdown was also responsible for it, now in 2010 again inflation is on higher path, but this time people are expecting RBI to increase rates to conquer it.
My questions are
a ) If inflation was to be controlled by raising interest rates, why in 2008-2009 it was reduced
b ) If disease is same why the remedy is reverse
c ) How it really affects the GDP and inventory
d ) What did actually drove inflation in 2008-2009 & now, SUPPLY or DEMAND
Thanks
Kailash, Kolkata

Sir,

Any particular reason for the Gold to nosedive by $22/ounce in today’s trade.

Regards,
NSri, Pune, India

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 13, 2010
See stock observatory page – Special comments today

Sir,
Sorry for my cryptic post where you could not understand the question. I am asking it again.
We know that Gold ETFs may just have a primary/secondary claim over gold or they may possess actual Gold. I would like to invest in a Gold ETF which has physical possession and is traded in decent numbers. The most heavily traded Gold ETF on Nifty is the Benchmark Gold ETF. So to get answer to my other question regarding their actual Gold position, I wrote to them and asked the following question:

“Does your AMC has physical possession of Gold against the units floated under this scheme or you have a contract with some other party to deliver the Gold in case the AMC asks for a physical possession of it?”
To this question of mine, their reply was:
“The Underlying in Gold BeES is Physical Gold , as per Nov’09 portfolio the % of Gold is 99.93 in the said Scheme, The Physical Gold is deposited with our custodian The Bank of Nova Scotia.”
I do not understand the last line in this reply. This means their Gold lies somewhere else. So what I wanted to ask you was is this a normal practice and is it safe to invest in this ETF?
Thanks,
Pawan,
Delhi, India

Kalidas Says…2010.01.13
Yes, it is normal practice to keep the gold with the custodian in US, UK or Switzerland in highly secured gold vault such as Fort Knox in USA and HSBC, New York. The gold is kept in trust with them. They are like warehouse keeper, they do not trade. They are Trustee. Their beahviour is tightly controlled by the government.

I have given detailed comments in my Article Investing in Gold and ETF. The latter one is a derivative. The difficulty is that in the event of crash, all markets will be shut down for 5 to 7 days. In that case, gold would not trade on exchanges. Only physical can be sold.

Until that extreme situation comes face to face, the integrity of ETF may be safe.

Sirji,
Today RIL treasury has sold its stock for the third time this year to raise cash. What is your take on this ? Also, the second lot was bought out by LIC which does make some good long term investment decisions, like they had bought Maruti a few years back at 750 levels.

Hem, Mumbai , India

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 13, 2010
I do not read much into it. I am not following this stock much because I feel that it is grossly overvalued and that it may have huge derivative losses. They may be toying with the idea to take over US company just to divert the public attention and raise the capital from QIP or ADR or FPO. Once that purpose is achieved, they may back out of the takeover deal.

No sane person will buy US company, and that too a bankrupt company having cyclical business at this time. There is 100% guarantee that he will lose a fortune if he does take over. Panasonic, Mercedez, BMW. VW, Sony, British Airways, Vtech from Hong Kong, UBS, Credit Suisse, British Petroleum, all tried to invest in USA with disastrous result. US culture is like an alien culture. They have different practices and standard. Further it is a society full of product liability lawsuits. Only idiots will go there and China for direct investment.

Namaste Anilji,

I hold Abhishek industries and Mahindra Satyam with me.
Abhishek Ind 1975@15.60 CMP 17.25
Mahindra Satyam 2045@100.82 CMP 114.80
Please advise if I could hold them more or sell.

Thanking you for your valuable wisdom & time.
Sudeesh R
Geneva

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 12, 2010
I do not understand why do you have to ask this question. My report about Abhishek is already there, so also comments on short term trend in Stock Observatory. I am very specific about my targets and holding time. There can not be ball-by-ball running commentary.

for Satyam also I have mentioned my target at Rs 160 and also mentioned number of times that the stock has short term target Rs 160 and long term 210. Please read Confused Mind Clear Answers regularly. Most questions figure over here, so you will find reply here

Yes, you may hold until 18/1same position after which you may reduce by 50% due to bad omen in USA

Sir,
Did you miss my question about Benchmark GOLD ETF posted on 11 Jan?
Pawan,
Delhi, India

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Honestly, I could not understand your query and their reply. I want very clear query and response from other party and then your reaction what is the confusion? Re-post your query please.

Dear Kalidasji..
Wish You and Your family A Very Happy, Healthy, Safe & Prosperous NEW YEAR 2010…
 
Few months back i have asked your view about holding few Base Metals (Copper/ Zinc/ Nickel) and Coal stocks on TSX-Canada; LUN & SGQ and you advice me hold them and they did gained 25-30% since then;
Do you hold the same veiw about the Base Metals and COAL stocks to hold on or should i book profits?
Your view about Metals & Coal will be very helpful for me to hold or book profits; i am long term player on these holding LUN (since 18months) & SGQ (since 3Years);
Many Thanks again for your wonderful work and knowledge sharing sir;
Regards,
Sreeram, London, UK

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Take profit on Copper and base metals, Hold Coal for a while. Metals will correct strongly in 3 weeks time. You can hold for one more week if you want to get the last dollar

Dear Sir,
1) I am holding 150 Suzlon at 70.14 cmp 94.05.
Should i exit and switch to Dish TV
2) Relcom 200 at 219 cmp 181.55.
do you suggest hold or can i switch to something that will move faster in the short term?

Thanks,
Varghese, Pune India

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Answer is
(1) – Yes, go ahead
(2) – Hold. It is due for rally. See my post in stock observatory today and be guided accordingly.

Dear Sir,
    Can we in India open an account with interactive brokers(http://www.interactivebrokers.co.in/en/main.php) to buy SA RAND ZERO COUPON BONDS?
I am not sure about the charges of IB.
If we can buy SA RAND CPN BONDS via IB do we need to maintain this account till we sell them?

Swati
Hyderabad,India
Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Sir,

When we type something in the below comment box, the formatting looks great, but upon submitting the presentation changes in your blog. Once again apologies to all readers. Please delete all my today’s postings, and i will post it in a readable format later

Thanks
Bobby, Singapore, 07:47 AM SGT

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 12, 2010
It allows limited html capability. Use free software – Easy Text to HTML software. Use Table feature inside. Type your text, prefer Table to HTML feature, press the convert key. The data is already copied to clipboard. Go to Comment Box section, use CTRL+V feature to paste it, and okay it. It should work.

Sir,
I am 38 years old, presently residing in Singapore, working in the IT department of an MNC bank. I have two kids aged 10 years and 7 years. My current asset allocation is provided below:

Asset Class

Remarks

Allocation

Savings and Fixed Deposits

INR with Indian Banks

42.8 %

Savings Deposits

SGD with Singapore Banks

7.3 %

Central Provident Fund

In SGD. These funds are locked and I can repatriate only when I permanently leave Singapore

39.1

Gold

Certificate & Physical. Bought using SGD currency at an average price of 1122 USD per ounce.

10.9%

Stocks

Have an online Trading Account with ICICI Bank

0%

Property

2 plots in Chennai, Cost Price: 42 Lakhs, Current Value: About 90 Lakhs

 
I have a few questions:
1)      I would like to know which broker i should open my investment account to purchase South African Rand deep discounted bonds maturing in 2027. Although you suggested interactive brokers earlier, based on the fact that I currently reside in Singapore and will be using SGD to purchase these bonds would that be the best possible option for me?
2)      My plan is to use the SGD savings funds to invest in these bonds; do you foresee exchange gains between SGD and ZAR which will work in my favor, if I invest in ZAR denominated bonds?
3)      My CPF holdings are earning me an interest of approximately 3.25% per annum. Out of my CPF current holdings, I am allowed to use 4.4% for investments in Gold and 15.4% for investments in stocks. Can you advice if I you would recommend me to make any investments out of these funds. As I mentioned in the above table, these funds are locked and can be repatriated back to India only upon me permanently leaving Singapore
If you have any other alternate investment suggestions, please advice
Thanks,
Bobby, Singapore, 07:41 AM SGT

Sir,

Sorry i posted something with a table and it did not come out properlly in your blog. Please delete this post and the previous post. Apologies for the incovenience caused

Thanks
Bobby, Singapore, 07:36 AM SGT

Reply to Swathi,
from IB could not possible to buy SA zero coupon bonds. They are not providing such service.
Regards,
Rajmohan
congo

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 13, 2010
You are in Congo. Why don’t you try South African banks like Nedbank or Standard Bank. they may also a branch in Congo. Otherwise try Rabo bank, Netherland/Deutshe Bank/HSBC/RBC Dominion Security ( of Royal Bank of Canada), UBS or try Saxo Bank or even try some US brokers like Morgan Stanley. If you deal with the broker there is no annual charge. Banks may charge something – 0.25% annually on assets held

Dear Sir,

I have 500 shares of TCS purchased at Rs. 450 and CMP is 750. Could you advice me on future for this script. Should I sell and switch to some other shares in the market. When Should I sell them? I look forward to your advice.

Thanks,
Sarit Haria, Mumbai, India.

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 13, 2010
There is no growth in TCS. The revenue and profits are same for last 4 years. Such companies do not usually trade over 8 to 10 times P/E whereas the TCS is trading at over 28 times. I would suggest selling. the downtrend has started, may be there is momentary rebound for a day – not for long. Rising rupee is also against the company.

Sell it in rebound or just sell about 400 or so. You may get Rs 280,000 from which buy 1000 Satyam (Rs 115) , 1000 Petronet (Rs 76) , 2500 Ispat (Rs 22.50), dishTV 1000 (Rs 45)

Hello Mr. Anil,
I have been holding following stocks for last 5-6 months. It would be great to have your opinion like hold/sell, target price
1) IFCI / 4000 units @ price of 47
2) ISPAT / 15000 units @ price of 19
3) Dish TV / 2000 units @ price of 41
4) Essar oil / 1000 units @ price of 135
This is my first post and I am using my mobile, so please ignore the mistakes. I will try to follow the protocols in a better way for my future queries.
Regards,
Nadim Azami
Kuwait
11th January 2010

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 12, 2010
IFCI – Hold. It will rise soon to perhaps 68/73 region.
ISPAT – This will be a big winner from April/June. Hold
DishTV – This too will be a big winner. Hold
ESSAR OIL: Sell 20% @160; 20% @ 180. Wait for Royal Dutch Shell sell of its refinery to company and terms thereof.

Raise your position in DISH TV selling IFCI in rally. former will fast forward whereas latter will be slow after it hitting mid 70s

Always write CMP while posting query to make it meaningful.

Sir
Please elaborate your observations on Reliance Industries treasury stock  sale posted under stock observatory section. Any  issue related to the financial health of this company could trigger major correction in the Indian markets.  I  still hold 70%  of my investments in equities, so I am a bit worried.
Regards,
Radhika, Hyderabad, India

Sir,
 Wish you a very Happy New Year. I am new to your blog.
I have purchased  500 shares of Sarda Energy & Minerals ( BSE ID 504614) on 16.10.2009 @ 236. CMP 229.50.
Kindly advice .

Best Regards,
Dr. Priya,
Mumbai,India

Hello Sir,
I wrote to Benchmark AMC regarding their Benchmark GOLD ETF listed in NSE (GOLDBEES). My question and their reply follows:
—————
Does your AMC has physical possession of Gold against the units floated under this scheme or you have a contract with some other party to deliver the Gold in case the AMC asks for a physical possession of it?

The Underlying in Gold BeES is Physical Gold , as per Nov’09 portfolio the % of Gold is 99.93 in the said Scheme, The Physical Gold is deposited with our custodian The Bank of Nova Scotia.
—————
What would your opinion be regarding investment in this ETF?
Thanks,
Pawan,
Delhi,India

Sirji,

Today RIL treasury has sold its stock for the third time this year to raise cash. What is your take on this ? Also, the second lot was bought out by LIC which does make some good long term investment decisions, like they had bought Maruti a few years back at 750 levels.

hem

mumbai

I am ignoring question because it is not spell checked, nor capitalized nor country name is mentioned. I was ignoring such lapses in the past, but no more in 2010

Sir,
Is Abhishek Industries still in buy range ?? I missed to add it at 13 levels. Its volumes have picked up and its surging well.
 
 
Thanks,
Vijay Hegde
Bangalore, INDIA
Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 11, 2010 Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably. I added INDIA

Abhishek is a tricky stock, because it is small value and thinly traded. The stock gained in value and volume, so buy small lots or wait for correction and buy. It may drop for one day when you can buy some. I do not normally chase this stock.

ALSO, visit the Stock Observatory column that was started today. See the sidebar under pages.

In reply to your message:
“I am ignoring question because it is not spell checked, nor capitalized nor country name is mentioned. I was ignoring such lapses in the past, but no more in 2010″

Rightly done Sir ! – i guess the users should atleast adhere to some simple expectations of yours while they pump in questions with great expectations from you !

You have put in time and effort to improve the website by adding Stock observatory, box.net support etc. I must congratulate you for the efforts and the way the website has shaped up over time.
regards

Raghav, Bangalore, INDIA

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 12, 2010 Thanks

I have following scrips:
Sl No./name                     / code/ qty./ purchseprice/  CMP
1. NIIT TECH                    532541    100     174                 176
2.GUJ AMBUJA EXPO524226     120     22.90                25.80
3.MICROTECH                 532494    100    172                207.40
4.CLASSIC DIAMOND 523200     1000  22.90                       24
Please guide me should I keep these or sell?
Regards,
Sarla,
Jaipur-India
Date of posting 10th Jan.2010

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 11, 2010
Most of your stocks are not being followed by me. I need time (3 days) before I could comment. I will reply here only. Do not post again.

Dear Sir,
I remember that in some of the old posts you had mentioned about DCB being a good stock to own.
while looking at its past performance , i saw that it had reached a peak of 150+ in the bubble zone  & then fell off sharply – i checked that the stock had no bonus or split. I recently entered it @ 34Rs.
what are your views on DCB? why do you think it has fallen down from 150+Rs to 30s and has never recovered!?
regards
Raghav , Bangalore

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 11, 2010
DCB is inuptred now after following a period of long consolidation. I will reply to your other queries later. Whether or not there was split, please follow the website like livemint.com and moneycontrol.

DCB raised Rs 84 crores via QIP route. The Company was to raise Rs 100 cr by QIP route and balance Rs 200 crores by Rights issue. We do not know the price at which Rs 84 crores were raised. It was less than subscibed. The market makers may try to prop up the price by 15% to help succeed rights issue. If the company does not hurry up, the weaker stock markets might derail its issue. Try to get out at Rs 48 or about.

Sir,
I am 20% invested right now (all in Petronet). You said you will give a final sell all call by Friday but now you have postponed it by 21st I suppose. And you say markets will also go up from 1st April, 2010. Are you expecting some catastrophic even between Jan 21st and April 1st?
Thanks,
Pawan,
Delhi, India

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 10, 2010
You are right. There is enough time. Wait for Petronet’s 3Q result which should be good. The stock is moving in anticipation of good numbers. You can also test my projected numbers with facts. Also, watch my new column “Stock Observatory” from tomorrow. It will contain daily brief. If Bank of America numbers are very bad, Dow will slide into reverse gear but not necessarily crash. We do not know what event might trigger crash. Rates are on rise, and Citigroup is slowly receding into graveyard. Let us wait untll next week. You are in strong stock, so no need to worry.

Dear Kalidas Ji,
Greetings of the day !

From Lows of 2228 to 5303 in Index of Nifty Fut. there has been a remarkable recovery the stocks which crashed 90% from there peaks came up 300% to 500% of there lows. My querie to u is do u expect the index of Nifty Fut to restest the October 2008 Lows and Sexsex to go to the levels of 7000 or below  in the year 2010.

I want to know the same for my investment i wish to make in Near Future for 3-5 years hold.
I have already closed the Open positions in Decent profits and few of Investments in Mutual Funds at Mild Losses.

Currently Holding 90% in cash about 5 lakhs Ruppess.

Tarun
Punjab
India

Kalidas Says ….Monday, January 11, 2010
Spell check your message and capitalize the words properly before you post. I am not your English teacher. You write SENSEX as SexSex. Rupees as written as Ruppess. Such use of words, even inadvertently, will bring in lot of spammers from Pornographic sites. Do not care to post unless you have written your message properly.

In steep correction, Sensex may drop to 10,000, not further, unless the world markets take ugly turn. In that case, there could be complete meltdown and stocks may fall as low as 6000. But this is extreme scenario of total meltdown. market at 12,000 is written all over it.

Dear Kalidasji,
This is an out of the way question. What kind of a car should one buy? Considering that it is a depreciating asset but one still needs it. I am 34 yrs, married, no kids, pvt. job, wife not working. What would you recommend putting yourself in my category? Also, do you think Chevrolet cars should be purchased in India considering the situation of parent GM in USA.

Thanks
Atul, Pune

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 10, 2010
Frankly, I do not own a car nor do I know how to drive. In other words, you are asking this question to an idiot. But there are so many books around about the idiots, I will reply as under:

Depends on city. Your city as I have seen recently is a decent one. You can afford to buy medium sized car – not nano nor Chevy. Honda or Toyota camry is preferred at relatively high end for normal status use. If you want a car with a good status, there are many top end model like Lexus, Mercedez, BMW.

Since you do not have kids, you can afford to have only 4 seater, 2 doors cars with all modern amenities. Buy a car having color of your wife’s choice. If your and your wife’s skin complexion is fair, prefer dark color, not black. If otherwise, prefer light color. Buy a car with CNG kits so that it costs less on petrol and also in maintenance (provided CNG filling stations are available in Pune and you do not often travel outside Pune. Otherwise prefer normal petrol driven or diesel driven car (which have more resale value). Sell the car every 3 years and buy a new again if you can afford. This is why car having resale value is important.

Thanks for your reply.
I can save about 1 to 1.5 lakh per month.i have two sons one 10yrs & another 6 yrs. i have my own house.
my main aim is to save some money for my retirement and for my sons education.
please suggest me a way to achieve my above mentioned goals.
Brgds
Philip T Ranjan,UAE

Dear Sir:

Re: IFCI Query posted earlier.

I have no idea of put/ call options. I have taken physical delivery of shares.
Re: Lot size reducing from 8000 to 4000- It would only happen in April.
Kindly advise  future course of action.

Regards,

Gaurav Kumar
Mumbai, INDIA
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 10, 2010 Always write Country also. I have written for you.

Fair enough. You may hold the shares as they are. Try to sell 50% when it is between 68 to 73. Hold the balance until the stock reaches to 80 or about.

Kalidasji,

I  am planning to buy Silver bars(5 to 10 kgs).Should I wait or shall I buy immediately?

with regds
Sathya
Chennai, India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 10, 2010
You should have bought 10 days ago when it was cheaper by 10%. Why do yo guys approach me when it has already risen. Wait for some correction to buy it.

Silver has gone up by 10% whereas Gold has risen only 4% in last 10 days. Of late, Silver is stronger than Gold as predicted by me earlier.

Dear Sir,

In one of your post you were referring to date of 21 Jan. Request you to elaborate on the significance of this date.

Hold it for a while and postpone the date to 21 Jan for the time being.

Is there any chance of the sensex correcting by atleast 1500 points before Jan-28 (NSE F&O expiry date).

Regards.,
Priya
Hyderabad,India

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 10, 2010
Often the people sell in December and Buy back in January in USA for tax reasons. Similar things happen to lesser degree in India during March/April.

The buying cycle for January will be nearly over by 3rd week of January. Further, many quarterly results for 4Q will be out by Mid January. The most serious will be Bank of America’s result – they are expected to report huge losses on credit card. The temporary hiring of workers for retail stores in Nov/Dec will be fired in January, so the unemployment figures will be worse in January with huge losses over 200,000 at least. Geithner is under tremendous pressure to resign. Hank Greenburg of AIG has blamed Goldman Sachs openly for the first time, as result of which GS will be under lot of scrutiny. Even Geithner is involved with AIG and GS.

When some big broker is in trouble, the market always falls. The situation in USA is worsening day by day, and this is the reason for my call to sell 40% before December, another 40% before January 15 (now postponed to 21 January) and balance when the market does behave as we expect and begin to go down.

Dow is not worth even 1500. If the markets collapse in Tsunami wave, everything on the way is being destroyed. India is also not excepted.

If the kind of scenario I expect unfolds, the Indian market could fall rapidly with no buyers for big counters. Do not be surprised if the SENSEX falls to 10,000 in short time. Indian market is mainly supported by huge volume in futures and options. The cash volume is not significant. Such paper trading will suffer the most.

I will be happy to be wrong. I know that my opinion will not be shared by many, in fact they will be angry at such scenario. But I write what I feel strongly. Indian market will start to prosper from April 1, 2010 when the new F&O board lots comes into play. The real investors will participate in such revised policy. This is the single most positive development for India.

SPECIFICS: It seems that you are long on F&O Nifty or may be planning to short F&O for January. I do not advise on such short term movements because the governments world over are ready to pump in billions of dollars out of thin air. Always trade with some hedging position in such riskiest scenario. The risk element in this market has increased to almost 70%.

Dear Sir,
I have reading your blog for past few weeks. It has been educating, enlightning and an eye opener for me.
I’ve made too many mistakes so far in terms of investing or rather not investing. I am 38 years old. I would like to change that else I would have not much when I retire in 15 – 20 years.
Currently I’ve following as my savings / Fixed deposits.
a) UK savings – GBP 120,000
b) India savings – INR 50,00,000
All in the bank accounts – FDs, savings etc.
Also I’ve one flat in Pune worth INR 50,00,000 (fully paid off). No other loans / assets.
Could you please advise me how to invest the cash?
I am currently in the UK so what’s the way I can invest in Indian shares / MFs / Gold ETFs etc.
Thanks for your advise.
regards,
Dinesh M
London, UK
09/01/2010

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 10, 2010
I think you posted this query earlier but I missed it. I am sorry.

Since you have all balances in cash, you have to open a Securities trading account in India and also in UK. Please do the following:
1. Open ONLINE 3-in-1 account with Axis Bank / HDFC bank by visiting their website. You can open the balance with Zero balance, but you are required to maintain minimum Rs 5000 or Rs 10,000 in each account (they do not consider total relationship balance as in UK or HK). The 3-in-1 accounts are as under:
a. NRI Savings Account in Indian rupee and NRI-PIS account (PIS = Portfolio Investment Scheme)
b. Demat account where you can park your shares when purchased. When you sell the shares this account will be debited. visit those banks website. Use this Master Index of BanksinIndia website from where you can access any bank in India. It provides almost all banks website link from single page. You may also try HSBC Bank which may be quicker and efficient.

2. Out of GBP 120,000,
a. switch about GBP 30,000 to Australian dollars. It will appreciate more and also get you higher interest rate.
b. Invest about GBP 20,000 or USD 32,000 in Zero Coupon Bonds of Development Bank of South Africa (DEVSA) maturing in 2027 and ESCOM maturing in 2032. Read my article on Zero Coupon Bonds which may be downloaded from sidebar – Download Pool » Articles Folder
i. DEVSA is trading at ZAR 15.63. If you buy 1 Millions face value, your investment value will be about ZAR 156,300 (ZAR = South African Rand) = US$ 21,300 or about. On maturity you will get 6 times. Further, South African Rand will gain against both USD and GBP. You are likely to have Exchange gain. This bond is guaranteed by Government of South Africa.
ii. ESKOM (South Africa’s largest Electricity company – it supplies about 98% of total power or electricity. It’s bond 2027 bonds trade at 14.68. Buy 500,000 face value. It will require ZAR 74,000 or USD 10,100 or about ZAR is a currency of South Africa. On maturity you will get 7 times + potential exchange gain (loss is unlikely)
iii. You may open account with HSBC or BARCLAYS who will be able to buy above bonds and retain with them. They may charge you 0.25% annual fees.
c. Please inform me how much interest you are earning on GBP Fixed deposits now.
d. You may have to open Security account with any bank or broker first. Try HSBC so that you can have uniform control over your investment in Britain and also India.
3. Your investment in India is okay for the time being. You are in right city – Pune which may appreciate much later.

After opening above investment account with any of the bank listed above, you may approach me again. Send me email. A separate email is sent to you so that you can respond at your leisure. I am not disclosing it here to avoid spam mail.

Dear Sir,
Wish you a very happy new year.

I am holding UCO Bank (532505) 3000 @Rs. 53 CMP Rs. 56.80. Q3 results will be announced on Friday 15 Jan. There is no further news on the FPO. In light of this, I am planning to sell part of my holding on 15 Jan. Please let me know your advice on this.

Thank
Shrinivas
Bangalore, INDIA

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 09, 2010
Hold it. All banks are showing good numbers, UCO should not be an exception. Hold it for a while and postpone the date to 21 Jan for the time being. It will apply to UCO also but you may sell only 50%

Also write country name also while posting. I have written myself. This blog is read in 112 countries, so each reader should know the origin of each query.

Dear Sir:

I am holding 12,000 shares of IFCI at an avg cost of Rs 53/-( purchased about a month back).  I took it for short term.

Now that the results are out (which does not look impressive )  &  that there is no news from mgmt side regarding stake sale,  do you think that IFCI could go up further. ( I refer to your earlier comment regarding IFCI touching 68-70 )

Please advice if I should hold ?

or

Will it be prudent to get out at 57/- ( I also refer to your comment regarding markets correcting after Jan 15th or so)

Thanks & With Regards,

Gaurav
Mumbai

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 09, 2010
Scroll down and read my comments to DG of London, UK.

To be specific about your holding, nothing to worry, The stock may momentarily drop on Monday but will gain later. It is in upward trend, so hold it. ]

I understand that NSE/BSE are revising the Board Lots of fall stocks. The lot of IFCI will come down from 8000 to 4000 which is bullish for the stock. Now what you need to do is to sell the stock forward when the stock rallies, so that you get the premium. If the stock drops back, you can buy back the options. In other words, you may be managing sale side leaving buy side in tact.

Advise me whether you know anything about call/put options. This is very important for me to know.

My sale call will also apply to IFCI but the date is deferred to 21st January. I am starting new column – Stock Observatory – see side bar under pages. Make it a point to visit twice a day.

Dear Kalidas,
I am currently on IT project in US. I have 90% of my assets are in FD in India most of them are of 10-10.5% interest rate, and 5-6% are in stock. I have never invested in gold, as you advised I am going to invest in gold soon. I am also seating with $10k in my checking account, I am not going to staying in US for long, Could you please suggest is it the correct time to transfer the money in INR?
I am 24 year old and with no much of the family responsibility, Is there any other investing opportunity other than gold at this moment?
Jinal
USA
8th JAN 2010

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 09, 2010
First you do one thing. Open an account with eTrade or Ameritrade while you are in USA. Right now you are favorably placed in retaining most of your savings in bank deposits.
 
I will come back to you later in 2 days. Visit your question here again.You have given very concise details. This is how the query should be.

Sir

Do you think at last they menifisted  some reason /or Geithener  him self leaked this AIG email saga to get rid of /resign Treasury office?

Shiva
Bangalore, India

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 09, 2010
Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably. You did not write country name. This column is visited by almost 112 countries.

Geithner is a gone case. Soon you will hear of his departure. Obama is merely looking at the replacement. When he has found one, Geithner is gone. He will also face enquiry before the Senate for misdemeanor.

Dear Sir,
“Wish you and your family a happy and a prosporous new year”
As I was on offical visit to singapore last month, I could not  keep track of your messages.
Sir,as I have no pension facilities after our stay/work in UAE,  i would request  you to please suggest me something so that i can have some regular income when i reach retirement age. My present age is 38 yrs and a chemical E ng. by profession.
Brgds
Philip T Ranjan, UAE

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 09, 2010
I always wanted to be Chem Engineer, but did not succeed. I am a Chemistry graduate too. What is your yearly income. No need to feel shy or secretive. Unless I know your resources, I can not advise properly.

Hello Selarka Ji,
Wishing you a very happy, healthy and prosporous new year. I am holding following stocks and I need an advise from you whether to sell the following stocks or to hold on.
Elecon Engg 200 shares at 278.54  CMP   90.50
Mercator lines 150 shares at 111.60 CMP 66.10

Regards,
Raunak, Bangalore

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 09, 2010
Elecon Engg:
Records show that the above stock dropped to 23.75 on 03/13/09 . why did not you buy at that time about 800 shares when the stock was down by 90%? The stock is considered expensive, and may be swapped into stock that is not only cheap but also rise 3 times than current level. Sell it and swap into Petronet (Rs 76) or Dish TV (Rs 42 – you will get 400 shrs. and then buy another 600 if your resources permit. You have to do that. I would prefer Dish TV considering your resources.

MERCATOR LINES:
Can you buy more from new cash? Buy it when it drops <60. Otherwise, sell both shares and buy 1000 shares of Dish TV

Dear Kalidasji
Please give you comments and opinion on IFCI results out today.
Thanks.
DG London UK

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 09, 2010
Good result. The stock dropped due to BRSN syndrome – Buy on Rumour, Sell on News. The open future position also contracted by 2 mln shares or about 2.3%. After initial fall on Monday by about 2%, the stock should begin to gain. The company has also entered into Real Estate business with Frasers to build over 2 Million square feets of commercial properties, that may bring in substantial recurring income in future. They have partnered with Fraser suits to build Service Apartment for businesses.

The good part is that the company is on
(1) growth path
(2) more profitable
(3) stake sale will be more possible with good target price
(4) government will get indirect stake of 12% by converting its loans (from LIC, PNB and other institutions) converting over Rs 580 crores of debts saving Rs 58 crores in interest servicing cost or Rs 0.80 per share adding to EPS
(5) Real estate income from Self Service apartments which is better than lending (because the asset is yours, no investment risk to outsiders, and also get Rental income instead of interest income) and
(6) the company is well poised for banking license- in fact entire IFCI act may be repealed).
(7) good stock market ensures better than average gains for its investment portfolio – this time they may cash more gains unlike last time.

If the company keeps up the pace, the chances are that within 3 years the EPS may gain to Rs 15. If the stock is reassessed at higher PE multiple of 14 times (instead of 7 times now), the stock could potentially rise 15×14 = 240 IF THERE IS NO MARKET CRASH. On normal valuation, the stock could go to Rs 120.

At the moment the stock is in upward trend. After hitting Rs 56 on Monday, it may close to Rs 60 or above and then proceed to over Rs 72 to 80 depending on the market conditions. I would hold now and be a seller in 68-73 regions partially (20%) and more if it reaches above Rs 80. However, I would not sell over 50% until the stock becomes a Tendulkar and scores 120 runs at least.

Dear Kalidas Sir,

I am trying to do some failsafe analysis on the physical gold purchase in India and would be obliged if you can provide your insights on that

a) With every 1% rise in Rupee vs USD, gold price in rupee terms falls 1% , assuming GoldPrice in USD remains same. That means If Rupee goes to 41 vs dollar then Gold Price in INR will fall to 1490 per gm, If gold remains at current price of 1125 $/ounce.

b) If INR appreciates to 25 over longer term (as you also think should be the fair value of INR vs USD (if RBI leaves it to the market dynamics) then Gold price will fall to 920 per gm, If gold remains at current price of 1125 $/ounce.

c) If INR goes to 25 vs $, Gold price will have to appreciate to $2000/ounce for the current INR price of gold to remain the same. i.e. a 40% rise in INR needs a 80% jump in gold’s USD price for the price in INR to be the same. And we are not even talking about the profit here for a 80% rise in gold prices, just the breakeven.

I get a feeling that buying gold in INR comes with a large amount of currency risk that too when USD as you predict is going to go down vs other currencies including INR. Indian rupee If appreciates to it’s 2 year high of 39-40 will wipe out all the gains in gold in India which have accrued in last 2 years, with gold remaining at 1025 USD. Only argument in favour of gold that I can come up with is that If gold appreciates more in dollar terms than dollar declines vs other currencies including INR.

Appreciate your valuable opinion on the above.

And last but not the least, May I take this opportunity to wish you and your family a wonderful and a proserous new year. And wish us (your followers) the continuous flow of pearls of wisdom that we collect from your writings here.

NSri, Pune

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 09, 2010
You are visualizing a scenario, other things remain constant. Further, Indian Rupee is so much tightly controlled, manipulated and demonized, like Japanese controlling Yen, Chinese controlling Yuan, that the chance of its going up to Rs 25 or Rs 26 (my target) will take years even if the control is relaxed. You will need to wait for one month for my new majestic article “Allow Rupee to Rise” which will appear on this blog. It will contain full description of factors, advantages, disadvantages etc. relating to Rupee.

A currency is final translation of entire economic activity. Gold is another matter. It is a limited edition commodity. If Gold appreciates by 100% to 150% from current level, it will take only about 6 to 18 months depending on how the events unfold.

The formula you gave applies not only to Rupee but to all currencies. Look at Euro – it rose from low of 0.84 to 1.43 today – or about 70%, and yet the gold rose from $260 to $ 1140 today or by 338%. If you negate the currency gain of 70%, there is still gain of about 260% in just under 7 years.

Being in India, you may view it as rise in rupee unacceptable. However, think of this scenario – if the Rupee is made convertible like all western currency, gain in rupee will help you buy more precious assets from overseas. Oil, gas, computers, commodities, foods supply, fertilizers – your own power bills, transportation bills become cheaper.

Such exercise is useful to you if you are playing with gold and gold futures. But in short term the gold may rise by 60% but the rupee will gain at the most 8% to 12%. Still the gain in favour of gold will be net 50%. This is why I always ask investors to buy physical gold, not its derivatives which are extremely difficult to manage due to very short term. The markets are behaving like our short term body behavior – sometime normal, at times acidity, some time constipation or at times diarrhea, even when we have taken good food (similar to buying good stock)

Dear Sir,
Wish You a Happy New Year
Waiting for announcement of release the e-book regarding asian crisis, You told one answer it was going to release on december
thank you
Regards,
Rajmohan babu
Congo

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 09, 2010
It will take about a month more to do so. I am in double mind whether I should publish it in same form as it was or moderate its language. I wrote it at the height of Asian Crisis, and my direct language may be construed otherwise. I will otherwise take just 3 days to publish the eBook because it is already ready.

I will take a decision soon.
 

Dear Sir,
Wishing you and your family a fabulous 2010.
Please advice your exit strategy for Hotel Leela Venture.  I’m holding this share with 25 percent profit.   The requested details are given below
stock name : Hotel Leela Venture
Purhase Date : Jun09
Quantity: 1366
Average Cost: 41
Cmp:50.50
Regards,
Hariharan
Hongkong.

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 07, 2010
Your entry cost was higher. You do not seem to have bought more when the stock slumped below 20.

There is not much of growth. However, if Airlines have more passenger loads,the hotel sector should do well.

due to high market and slow growth in the company, sell about 666 now and hold the balance. If the stock goes to 58 or so, sell all for the time being.

Hi Sir,
I am opening an US brokerage account with interactive brokers as recommended  by you few months back,  but they require at least 5000 USD deposit in cash or in stock to open the account. what would you suggest about the best utilization of mentioned fund with interactive brokers while waiting for right opportunity to buy bonds.
Regards
Amit, Melbourne, Australia

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 07, 2010
I am surprised. They used to open with Zero balance. They will ask for deposit when you want to trade. I will check in Hong Kong and revert.

Keep the money in Aussie dollar or deposit Aussi dollar equivalent instead of USD. Aussie will go to parity soon- by May

Dear Kalidasji Sir,

Thanks for the reply. I will keep protocol in mind from now.

Thanks,
Kaushik, Hyderabad, India

Hi Sir ,
Thanks for the wishes .
I am here for project work .
 
sachin , Sydney , India .

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 09, 2010
good to know. I guessed that.

Hi,
Will introduction of GST in India have impact on FMCG stocks?
Regards
Anand Siva, Sydney

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 07, 2010
No. It is common for all, the people will get used to it. Such taxes are passed on to the consumers. When the consumers have so much of money to spend on mobile phones and auto rikshas, do you think they will not have money to spend money on soap or toothpaste?

May be the stock corrects for a day or two but it is going to be permanent feature, so the people will discount it as unavoidable cost.

Hi Kalidasji,
You are saying that markets are going to fall world over by a huge magnitude in coming days.
I have some questions regarding this
a ) Why do you think that markets will fall, just because they have risen exponentially ?
b ) Markets will fall because there is a possibility of a rate hike by central banks ?
c ) Markets will fall because because there is a chance of unwinding of carry-trade in US Dollar ?
What happens if interest rates are not hiked in near future or US Dollar Index keep hovering at same range.
It will be nice if you can give a detail answer on the reasons of fall that can come.
Waiting eagerly for your response
Regards,
Kailash, Kolkata India
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 07, 2010
Read my latest article “Falling from the Cliff”.It should answer many points.
(a) The markets have risen by 66% instead of falling by another 33% in Mar 2009. So, it has to correct. It happened because the rates were very low and investors had not much investment choice. When the rates rise, the investors will have more choices, so they will get away from equity
(b)Yes. There is no possibility, it is a fact. Do not look at India alone. We are talking globally. US is at the top.
(c)There is no unwinding of USD trades now. Such thing happen when the rates rise to over 5%. At near zero percent, rise of 0.25% does not make much difference.
(d) Market will force higher interest rates, not the Central banks. Dollar has no other way but to go down.

Look at leading Democrat leaders – they have decided not to re-run the election. The political fall out is very serious now.

In this column we want to keep the reply short. We can not write full article in detail in small spaces.

Dear Kalidas,
I am writing to you for the first time, would appreciate if you could provide some guidance on the following stocks:
Stock name, Purchase Date, Qty,@Cost, CMP
1. Nagarjune Fertilizer, Nov’07 – Apr’08, 1500 @ Avg cost=60, CMP=35.55
2. Ispat Industries, Oct’07-Jan’08, 1200@ Avg cost=40, CMP=23.30
3. Tata teleservices Maharashtra, Oct’07-Aug’08, 2200@Avg cost=46.50, CMP= 28.00
4. Bharti Airtel, Oct’09, 250@Avg cost= 375, CMP=327
Shall I continue to hold, book loss or Avg??
Thanks,
Amit
Delhi, India

Kalidas Says ….Thursday, January 07, 2010
You could have read my article “Rebalancing Portfolio in Depressed Market” and used enclosed Excel spreadsheet to work out the solution. The said article is sent by email to your mailbox.

Meanwhile, I would suggest the following solution:

Naga Fert: Buy back @ 26.50
Ispat: Sell this lot @ 33.50
TTML: Sell @ 33 800 or more and buy back not over 25.35
Bharati Airtel: Buy back 287 or less.

The idea is,
Nagar ferti has strong run. Selling now entails less loss

Ispat is in strong growth industry with rising prices. If this trend continues, it will be profitable in 9 months. Ispat at Rs 23+ has more upward potential than TTML at Rs 28.

TTML will not have much growth. Though sales are rising, the break even point is still away. Nevertheless, it is in strong hand. Too many shares in market restrict price rise.

Bharati is strong company. Selling small part does not entail more losses. We are using same fund to buy the shares having good potential and where we have more losses.

Hi Kalidasji Sir,

I really appreciate you help to beginners. I am holding following shares at loss of around 20%.
Ispat Industries – 140 shares @ 35.
Suzlon Energy – 30 shares @ 107.

Please guide me if I can hold it still further or book the loss.

Thanks,
Kaushik

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 06, 2010
You are not following the protocols.
1. To seek advice on any stock, mention (1) stock name, (2) Purchase Date (3) Qty, (4) @Cost and (5) CMP. Symbol not necessary. No reply will be posted if these 5 details are not given.
2. Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably.

I am excusing you because it is your first time. Do not make me slog or expect me to do your work.

At the moment, you can hold both shares. I will tell you more after this weekend. Meanwhile, enjoy the rally.

Dear Sir,

Kindly see the following link :
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/cnbc-tv18-comments/umpps-may-be-capped-at-two-per-company-sources_433958.html

Sir, can this be viewed as negative for Reliance Power as Reliance Power has won three Ultra Mega Power Projects and now if one power player cannot implement more than two Ultra Mega Power Projects Reliance Power won’t have scope for bidding in future Ultra Mega Power Projects, Sir it seems everything is going against Anil Bhai.

I was too excited to see Rosa Power in Uttar Pradesh go live before the stipulated time but now this news it seems nothing is going good for ADAG group. Sir is this news too negative for growth of Reliance Power?

Regards
Naresh Kumar
Pune,India
Date:06-01-2010,12.20 pm

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 06, 2010
The government can not put cap to number of power plants per company. It is unconstitutional. It is also violation of Article 19 of Constitution of India which upholds “freedom of trade”. Any law or rule framed by the Government will be “ultra vires” and thrown out of window.

Yes, you are right one way. The government is finding ways to harass Anil Ambani to limit his ambitions at the instance of Mukesh Ambani. This is nothing but politics. You may view it as set back to Anil but in reality, the government can not limit the power of any public listed company or any individual.

When a company has commissioned a project successfully, it establishes the credentials. If a private company is to be prevented from participating, then it has to be applied to other government power companies like NHPC. NTPC etc. you can not have two set of rules – one for PSU and other for Private sector.

If a successful company can not bid beyond two mega projects, from where the Government of India will find entrepreneur of the caliber and deep pockets like Anil Ambani? Will the government award such projects to you and me? that is nonsense. By doing so, the government will be capping the growth of the India’s infrastructure which is extremely harmful.

It is amply clear that Mukesh Ambani has bought Petroleum and Power Ministers so far. He will do it for telecom sector too.

The top executives like Prime Minister and Finance Minister are watching the show like a spectator. They do not deserve to be in position where they are. If they can not guarantee freedom of trade within India itself, they should not talk about free trade internationally, WTO or similar theme.

To me, these top executives should be kicked out if they can not guarantee the basic constitutional rights of their citizens or private sector companies (they are legal citizens of India).

The constitution as framed by the fathers of India were more intelligent and forward looking than those in power today after 60 years. They deliberately introduced the Article 19 just to prevent the violators like the one you have quoted. Ambani’s lawyer, Jethmalani is a man with top class knowledge about the Constitution of India.

Those who have had doubt about Nehru, Ambedkar, Vallabh Bhai Patel. Gokhale, Rajaji, K.C. Pant and others should think thousand times before making a single adverse comments against them. They were the supreme leaders – without whom the country would have gone USSR way.

From Investor’s point of view, it may be negative but it is just at proposal stage. Read the line in the report “The ministry has taken legal inputs on the cap.” which means that even the government knows that it could be illegal.

I am not worried. May be in short term most will feel the way you do. The Indian politicians are nothing but the pimps on the Forus Road.

Yes, the gains in the ADAG group may be held back for some time. Small short term investors may sell in the rally and switch into something else – but for me – ADAG group is a screaming buy for long term investors who want to quadruple their money in as many years – 4 years

Dear Kalidasji,

In my earlier posting I mistakenly typed the scrip name and code, the correct name and code is ”Hidili Indsutry” -scrip code - 1393.
Kindly excuse for the typing error.

Thanks & Regards,
Balaji

Dear Kalidasji,

As you have extended the sale call for the time being, I would like to trade on the following, request your kind advice:
a) Coal related stocks (as coal prices are soaring)
     (i) Gujarat Nre Coke in India
     (ii) Hidilli (Code 1391) in Hong Kong
b) Any of the Sugar stocks (kindly advice on a particular scrip which you feel has good potential due to present soaring prices – in Hong Kong as well as in India)
Thanks & Regards,
Balaji-Hong Kong.

Hello Kalidasji
I am a big fan and great admirer of Kalidas and been following your blog regularly from its inception but never posted any message.
I wish you and your family a very Happy & Prosperous New Year 2010.
Best Regards,
Manoj Panda
Houston, Texas, USA, 5th Jan 2010

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

I am pleased to know that you have decided to post your comments. Please continue to partcipate.

Dear Sir ,
Happy New Year to You and your family.

While you have maintained your sale call, there are still cue’s of buy on Satyam to some of the questions on the site. Is this a short term call as you have maintained that you  will start seeing the fall in the markets from around the 20th of JAN 10.

Thanks,
Varghese Jose, Pune,India

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Yes, it is short term and medium term. The risk of owning it now less. 30% upside (short term) 55% (Medium term – 3 months) and 18% downside (if the market corrects steeply)

My sale call remains, However, I may fine tune it after this Friday.

Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Dear Sir,
I need your thoughts on clearing a personal loan. I have sent a personal email to your address.

Thanks and Regards
Ravindra
Bengaluru
Dt 5 Jan 2010

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Replied

Kalidas Sir,

Will you still hold to your SELL call  for the next 6-12 months  if the FED does any manipulation to hold the interest rates lower !

The Fed Is Preparing QE 2.0, MBS-Only Edition

We all knew it would happen, and now the Fed is implicitly confirming it – Quantitative Easing 2.0 is on the docket, with a sole purpose of purchasing of MBS, reports Market News. As the private MBS market is dead and buried, much more on this coming in a post later today, the Fed can not afford to abandon MBS and the GSEs in March. If it does, it is game over for interest rates, mortgages, and the stock market. Period.

Sources tell Market News International that the Federal Reserve could do more buying of mortgage-backed securities even after the March deadline set by the FOMC. The central bank, they say, is prepared to contemplate changes if need be, depending on conditions in the economy, housing finance and in financial markets more broadly.

Regards.,
kjreddy
Chennai,India
boom.n.bust@gmail.com

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 06, 2010
My sale call remains. However, I may fine tune it after Friday. Fed is not God.

Hello Sir,

Just an general query related to DISH TV. The company is going in -ve profit for last 4 year.
http://money.rediff.com/companies/dish-tv-india-ltd/17040190/results-annual

Can we still go for this scrip ?

Best Regards,
Guleria, Delhi, India
7:01 PM , 05-01-2010

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Yes. Its losses are declining to the point that they should be profitable in 4Q or 1Q2010-11

Also Buy Satyam. There was huge volume and the price shot up beyond its resistance. There could be some good news in the offing.

Dear Anilbhai,

Wish you a very happy, prosperous and safe new year 2010!

Based on your advice to wait for buying unit in SGP until after Dec-09, I thought of checking with you as we are in Jan. What are your views based on the current scenario?

Regards,

The Monk, Singapura.

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Wait until Jan end to take a view.

Dear Sir,
Hope this message finds you in good health. I am new to this blog but have been following you through the moneycontrol days. Do you expect the US markets to correct to new lows this year and the Indian markets to hold fort even if US is collapsing. If not what levels do you see for the Indian markets in the worst case scenario. I would like to initiate short positions on the NIFTY at these levels (5280). Please advise.
 
Warm Regards
Vyas Nambiar
Pune, India

Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, January 06, 2010
In forest fire, everything burns including green shoots. In market unheavel even Indian stocks will falter – in fact many of index heavyweights are extremely expensive (LT, Reliance). Indian stocks could correct to 9200 or by almost 50% if such events happen.

I do not give advice on Index trading. I am not in position to advise you on day to day or month to month basis, Do it at your risk.

Dear Sir,
NHPC has finally moved up ( CMP Rs. 36.25) from its IPO price ( Rs. 36/-) after a long time. I am holding 1426 @ 36/- from IPO time.  Does it make sense to sell all with no loss/no profit now and better to switch to more growth oriented stocks like Reliance power when the expected sudden market correction starts ?
Or Should I hold these some more time to expect some profit ?
Thanks,
-Santosh,
Bangalore.

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Hold it for a while. Those who wanted to sell have sold. They are replaced by new holders. The stock has to give you some gain,may be 15% to 20% not more. It is still expensive stock by my standard.

Wish you and your family a very Happy and healthy new year.

Vikram
NJ US 

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Dear Sir,
Wish you and your family  a very Happy & Prosperous New Year.
Regards,
Shankar
Atlanta USA

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Dear Anil,

Wish you and your family  a very Happy & Prosperous New Year 2010.

Regards,
Selvan
UK

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Dear Kalidasji,
Wish you and your family a very Happy and Prosperous  Year 2010.
Regards,
Ravi Sehgal (Bangalore)

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Sir,
Please have a look at this article. It says Reliance will sell gas at 4.2$ mmBtu while Petronet has to get the gas at 5-6$ spot price.
http://www.prdomain.com/companies/B/BharatPetroleum/newsreleases/2009122082113.htm
Please advice,
Thanks,
Pawan, Delhi

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Interesting. RIL has family tradition to quote the price below market to get market share. I know their tactics very well.

Why should they sell at 4.20 when the market price is $ 5 to 6? We will know more about their operating cost later.It is a strategy to gain market share – not scale of economy. They also sold at $ 2.72 to RNRL (Anil Ambani) for 17 years. How did they do it when the markets were at $ 5 to $6 or even by their own standard at $ 4.20? They will lose heavily in profits.

In western countries, the shareholders will pull up the management for doing market charity at their cost and will remove the CEO. But you are in India. After Rama, Krishna and Shiva, we have Mukesh Ambani and his RIL as demi-god.

World over the gas prices are on rise. The severe cold season has made the gas prices to shoot up, because the people heat up homes by gas, not electricity.

Wish you and your near and dear ones a healthy, prosperous and joyous 2010

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

REMINDER: PLEASE APPEND CITY AND COUNTRY NAME TO YOUR SIGNATURE INVARIABLY.

Hello Mr. Anil,
I wish you and your family  a very Happy & Prosperous New Year 2010.
Regards,
Anup Maheshwari
New Jersey, USA, 3rd Jan 2010

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

A Laymen Question:

1. Why metals like gold, platinum, diamond etc…. are classified as precious metals and why are they costlier than other metals? Does the production cost is high in case of precious metals?

2. You and other experts are fixing the target price of a stock for short term and long term. But it varies from person to person. Does fixing this target price is based on some laws and technical analysis? If so, why it varies between you and others? Whether experience in equity market is required or a laymen like me can guess the price of a stock?

Reminder: Some days before, while clarifying my query, you informed that you will publish an article for young investors like me. Waiting for that article

M Anbarasu
Madurai, Tamil Nadu, India.

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Simple. Other metals are produced in thousands and millions of tons – not gold, silver, platinum or palladium. It is like Mineral bottle selling at Rs 10 whereas drinking water in the fountain is free.

Good question. Targets are opinions. Just as you have different opinions in your own family, the people outside with big mouth have many listeners, so they go on talking about various targets.

As layman,use your common sense and invest. No need to have lot of technical knowledge. It will save you and also earn money.

Sir,
I bought IFCI 1500 (at 53 and CMP is 54.40)as you advised me to hold in my previous query. As you also advised to some one to watch till Jan 10th and sell whatever price, I would like to repeat my query to hold or sell and what would be the target for ifci in coming 6 months.

Krishna,
Hyderabad

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
I may have to extend my selling point about 15 days more. Stay with IFCI – it is going to Rs 71 soon, if present movements are indications.

My 6 month target for IFCI is much lower than current market price. The present rally is not going to last for 6 months. so no target. Get out if you get a chance between 68 to 73

Hi Sir,
Somebody mentioned property in this column. I want to draw your attention to the fact that in Delhi/Gurgaon, flats are selling at 400 times monthly rent as opposed to the fair valuation of 200 times. For example I pay a rent of 14,500 for the 3BHK I live in but the owner expects to sell it for 60Lacs. Do you think prices will become reasonable in the NCR region?
Thanks,
Pawan, Delhi

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
It is too expensive by my standard. The property has city appeal also. Mumbai, Delhi, Pune and Gurgaon have lot of speculation without people having buying power. Would you pay Rs 30,000 rent for your apartment. My own flat in Mumbai with mv of Rs 65 lakhs gets me rental of Rs 22000, and now bidded upto 25,000.

Again, the property apart from location is valued higher for facilities and amenities. Newer buildings are far superior than old ones, but old one have very low maintenance cost. My old flat valued at Rs 65 to 70 lakhs have maintenance cost of Rs 1100 (for building without even elevator) whereas other apartment in Navi Mumbai with market value of Rs 85 lakhs with all modern facilities and maintenance tag of Rs 2500 gets same rental of Rs 22000.

I do not know much about Gurgaon physically. However, based on finances, it is extremely overpriced. Unlike Mumbai, Delhi and Gurgaon have lot of land.

Dear Readers,
I have uploaded the Dowload Pool (Folder – Confused Mind html) the following consolidated file for Confused Mind series for October, November and December 2009. They are all in html format to makeit searchable. PDF files are not searchable.
The files are:
CONFUSED MIND_09-12
CONFUSED MIND_09-11
CONFUSED MIND_09-10
You may download them and open in your internet browser. Use “find” function and use any keyword to find the multiple instances of that stock or world.
Anil Selarka, Hong Kong

Sir,
I am from Jaipur, India. Date of posting 03rd Jan. 2010.
I am holding following stocks:
Sl No./name                     /bse code/ qty./ purchseprice/  CMP
1. KITEX GARMENTS   521248    835     23.20                     29.60
2.NIIT TECH                    532541    80      180.15                   178
3.GUJ AMBUJA EXPO524226      80        23.10                     24
4.GEODESIC                     503699  721       115                          132
5.ROLTA                              500366  80       185                          195
6.MICROTECH                 532494    100    157                           166
7.CLASSIC DIAMOND 523200     1000  22.90                       24
KINDLY GUIDE WHICH STOCKS SHOULD I HOLD FOR LT AND WHICH I SHOULD SELL?

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Unfortunately, I am not following any of your stocks. I will reply when I have to look into them. I will send you email.

Dear Sir,
Wishing you a very happy new year. Just a small observation: Market started major correction around Jan 20, 2008 and by your prediction they will start correcting again from third week (Jan 21) of Jan 2010. It shows that people gambling in equities have very short term memory.  (I used gambling instead of investing on purpose.)
Best wishes,
v8r, Stockholm.

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
People always have short term memory. In an information age, where media plays most important role, the confusing information spread by business channels weigh on the investors esp. small investors.

The correction in third week of January may get slightly extended due to fanni/freddie mae saved with a blanc ceque from the treasury. They no longer need Congressional clearance. When the said they needed $ 130 billions, they gave them $400 billion draw down limit automatically extended without further limit. Two Bureaucrats – Bernanke and Geithner – abetted by Goldman Sachs dictate the world President Obama is just a signing post.

Now, Interest Rates are key. The largest fund manager PIMCO has started getting away from Treasury. That will raise the interest rates much faster, not due to growth as touted out by the media, but due to rising demand of cash or credits. The book entry money is gone down the black hole.

When the rates rise to 3%, hell will let lose because the Fixed Mortgage lender who borrowed from Fed at less than 0.5%, and lent to borrowers on fixed terms for 20 years, will find maturity mismatch due to which they will go belly up. Slow poison has set in.

I would keep the money in India, mostly in Fixed Deposits, followed by special equities in correction. I still have sale call maintained. The time has come to liquidate another 40% soon. Stay only with highly liquid stocks – ignore small or midcap stocks unless they are large companies.

Dear sir ,
 
Wish a very happy , healthy  and  prosperous new year .
Sachin,Sydney,Australia .

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

by the way what are you doing in Sydney, Australia?
 

Alert : Major market action likely January 4

It’s no secret that investors have racked up millions of dollars in paper profits this year. The average S&P 500 stock has risen 66% since March alone.

Now, large hedge funds, mutual funds, pensions and wealthy investors need to take some of those profits off of the table to tidy up their balance sheets.

But there’s a problem:

• Those who take their profits before December 31 will get a big tax bill on April 15, 2010, while …
• Those who WAIT until the first trading day of the new year won’t have to pay taxes on their profits for 15 long months — until April 15, 2011!

That means you can expect to see many of the world’s largest institutions selling some of their shares on the very first trading day of the new year.
 
Kalidas sir , please share your views on this piece of RED news !
 
Thanks.,
Boom N Bust
boom.n.bust@gmail.com

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Are you talking about USA or India – you have to be specific. India has financial year ending on 31 March, whereas in western part, esp USA, it is calendar month.

In USA, the people book losses in December, not profits. As per US Tax Law (same to India also), the losses physically booked is only allowable. This is why people sell December and Buy January. It is called “January effect”. further, like India where we have muhurat trading, US also follows same pattern. People buy something in first week and also buy back the losing positions they sold in December.

I therefore do not share your views.
Chennai, India

Dear Kalidasji,
Wish you and your family A Very Happy & Prosperous New Year.
I am presently in Dubai/Abu Dhabi and experiencing a very subdued economic activity and pessimistic feeling being expressed by many.
Dongre, Mumbai

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, January 05, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

You are right. Same feelings are here in Hong Kong which is mainly a trading port like Dubai. Almost everyone says that his business is down by almost 50%. The customers who used to buy in container loads are now opting for LCL cargo.

Only the stock market is defying because there is no other avenue like Bank Deposits where one can earn something. India is excepted because the interest rates in Banks is still around 8% on FDR. In place like Hong Kong, we get only 0.25% per year.

Either the business has to improve by 150% to catch up with the stocks or stocks have to come down by 70% from current level.

The first warning sign – Interest Rates – have begun to climb though marginally of course. Rate rise is not bad because they will be climbing from low – until they rise to 3%, there may not be any risk, if business also doubles or show at least 50% increase. But it is not happening.

Wish u a Joyous New Year Anilji…..
I am just a guest regularly  tracking and learning fabulous things from your site….just like many others.
Thanks for your guidance to all.
Warm Regards:
Ajmera - Ahmedabad.

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 03, 2010
Thanks and welcome to my blog. Participate actively. We all learn and share.

Hi,

I remember you had mentioned earlier, one should wait before investing in Real Estate as of now. However, I have a query, I am getting a  almost a ready to move in flat at a substantial discount from the builder. The only reason is I happened to know someone who could influence him to give me a good discount. Is it a good deal in this case. I also figured out that ICICI bank has come out with 8% loan interest scheme for first two years. So, it may be additional savings for me.  Another concern is that there are some complaints against this builder, but I noticed almost every other builder, small or major has complaints lodged agaisnt them.  Need your guidance in this regard.
Thanks,

Vinod, Bangalore, India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 03, 2010
I think Bangalore property has corrected enough and it is consolidating at lower level. if you are getting good deal in property and financing, go ahead if your resources permit.

I agree that each builder has some plus or negative points. it is true for any business. Take enough precaution and buy it. Make sure that possession is not far off.

Sir,
What made you choose to stay in Honk kong? You could have chosen Britain or US? why Honk kong? You know more about US than people who stay there?
regards
Badrinath
bengaluru, India

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 03, 2010
Living physically in a country is different than knowing its system – financial especially. It is difficult to adjust at this age to adjust in other cities. But then, who knows where my destiny is. May be I am long enough in Hong Kong, and it is time for change.

Dear Kalidas ji,
Wish You and Your Family A Happy and Prosperous New Year 2010.
May god bless you with sound health and even more wisdom.
In 2010, I am sure authorities across countries shall notice contents of your book, and take actions to make this world more sane and rationale, bringing you your much deserved recognition and fame. I also hope that we shall get chance to learn from your wisdom through many such other books in years to come!

Rajesh
Mumbai, India

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 03, 2010
Thanks for your wishes for me and my book.

Respected Kalidasji,
Gold ended 2009 with 25% raise, highest rate in 3 decades but lagged behind in all commodities in price raise. The irony is its raise was discussed, debated in a larger way, made a headline almost for two weeks in almost all newspapers but never talked about other commodities whose raise was much higher. All are fed with evidence of suppression of Gold price but none reacted while West and its banks succeeded its act till the end of the year. There is no doubt that West is visualizing Gold as a rising Tiger and it will hurt its interests. They may try to suppress or deflect this yellow fever but how far this will affect our portfolio in 2010 you only could explain considering other commodities growth potential where choice is available to investors. How much percentage of commodities one can have in his portfolio other than precious metals.? If bubbles breaks and demand destruction took place, do these commodities/export dependence companies (Satyam, Abhishek Industries) will generate higher return? These are the confusions arise due to inability of investment in identified companies with above uncertainties. Kindly clear my doubts.
Regards,
V.S.Kumar, Jorhat

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 03, 2010
Gold is alternate form of money. It is not industrial metal. It can not generate that kind of demand for metals such as copper, aluminum, steel etc. We can not compare those metals with gold.

Satyam or Abhishek has no direct relationship with gold even remotely. The money has been destroyed in such huge quantity and sought to be replaced by tons of money of late, that its (gold) value has to rise.

Every metal or commodity has its own day or cycle. Gold is finding new era for itself. This time around, the rally in gold will be real and long lasting. When the people’s perception changes, it changes for a very long time. The old equations do not hold good any more. Look at the Interest rates – do the lower rate bring in benefits any more? It has created more side effects than direct effect.

Dear Kalidaji,
Do you think that in case the US economic scenario worsens as per your analysis then don’t you think the IT sector whch brings in huge amount of Forex will be badly effected thereby effecting millions of employees in the sector. Do you have any plans which you feel the Indian IT industry and the employees should follow in order to mitigate the risks if the inevitability happens.

Although i totally agree with your analysis on the wrong economic policies followed by the US government, i am just praying that the economic problems do not create havoc as you have mentioned.

Thanks & Regards,
Vinod S
Bangalore  
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 03, 2010
IT Sector will be least affected, although some shrinkage of margin is not ruled out. Even if there is large unemployment, they can not possibly substitute the IT outsourcing. It has become a necessity for them. This is highly skilled job and also a system job. US employees can not replace Indian labour or outsourcing so easily. To me, the expansion related contract may be placed on hold, but other bread and butter jobs will continue to be received by Indian IT companies.

Indian IT companies have to become aggressive to pursue the existing contracts, and accept slightly lower payment to meet the realities. They can not afford to loose the market to other upcoming countries like Israel, Hungary, Ukraine, Russians, China and Australia.

Indians have another advantage – English language. This highly rich communicative medium is a big plus in favour of Indian IT industry. No other country can have advantage in this area for another 50 years, not even China. English is embedded in India.

Indian IT Association, Chamber of Commerce have to organize more seminars in USA than ever before, offering services in Health Care (which received billions of dollars of allocations, especially medical records).Indian IT companies have to adapt to developments in Health care, Solar energy, Wind power, CAD developments in engine designs for energy efficient Auto, Check and Balance system for finance industry. The crisis has also opened up many areas which were closed or not even known earlier.

All problems have solutions. Americans are crisis fighters. They give off their best during crisis times. If there is no crisis, they create them so that they can manage it later. This is why I offered radical solution in my book. If they read and just think over it for a few days, they will find better solutions.

Dear Kalidasji
 
Thank you for your time & advice to the below queries
 
1. Please let me know your opinion, where to invest my 401k, I have around $50k
 
2. I have some money in my checking account, Where I can invest my  checking account money .
 
Regards
Suma  detroit

Dear Sir,
Wish you and your loved ones a Very Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year Ahead.
Best Regards,
Prakash,
Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 03, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Dear Anil ji, wish you and your family good health, prosperity and peace. Happy new year 2010.

Girish, Pune (India)
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 03, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Dear Kalidasji,

WISHING YOU, YOUR FAMILY & ALL READERS OF THIS FORUM VERY HAPPY, PROSPEROUS & SUCCESSFUL NEW YEAR 2010.

- Ramesh, Mumbai, India.

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 03, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Namaste Kalidasji,
Happy New Year…!!! Bye to 2009 which ended with a Blue Moon welcoming 2010

Hi Kalidas,
Thanks for your time and the helpful inputs that you share on a regular basis.
I wish you and family a happy & prosperous new year.
Regards,
Aby
Bangalore

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 03, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Dear Kalidasji,
Wishing You and Your Family Very Happy,Properous & Fruitful New Year 2010 .
Also Wishing all boarders the same
Thanks & Regards
Vinod S
Bangalore

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 03, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Kalidasji,
Wish you a happy, prosperous and a healthy New Year 2010.
I am happy to have learnt a lot from you on financial planning throughout 2009.
Lets hope this year turns out to be “Gold”en year with “Silver” lining.
Our guns are all armed for solid gains in these metals and “oiled” well by your expert advice and teachings.
Regards,
Atul
Singapore

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Trust me, they will be the big winner.

Dear Kalidasji,

Wish you and your family  a Happy & Prosperous New Year!

V.C.Ayyappan,
Muscat.

Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 03, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

wish you and your family a happy new year

Rajarshi
Kolkata, India

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Dear Kalidasji,

Wish You and Your Family Very Happy and Properous New Year 2010 . Also Wish all fellow boarders and friends a Very Happy and Prosperous New Year 2010.

Regards,
Raj V
Ghatkopar , Mumbai,
India

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Dear Sir,
Wish you and your family a very happy and prosperous new year.
Best wishes
badrinath
bengaluru, India
 

Dear Sir & fellow boarders,

Wishing you a very happy & prosperous new year 2010 !!!

Regards,
Atharva , Pune, India

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Dear Sir,

Wish You and Your Family A Happy and Prosperous New Year 2010.

Murali,
Hyderabad.

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Dear Sir,

WISHING YOU AND YOUR FAMILY VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR 2010

Shiva
Bangalore

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Hello KalidasJi,

Wishing You and your Family a Very Happy and a Prosperous New Year.

Having a true knowledge gaining time reading your book.
Just came across an article and thought of sharing it with you.

http://www.gata.org/node/8192

Regards
Ashish (Mumbai)

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

This portion of message removed due to non identifiable characters and code.

Hello KalidasJi,
 
Wishing You and your Family a Very Happy and a Prosperous New Year.
 
Having a true knowledge gaining time reading your book.
Just came across an article and thought of sharing it with you.
 
http://www.gata.org/node/8192
 
Regards
Ashish (Mumbai)

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks. The top portion of your message was removed as it contained non idenfiable characters. I used other html program to decipher it but no success.

Thanks for your message. Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and Best wishes for your health, wealth and family.

Dear  Anil  Sir

I  wish  you  and  your  family  a  very “HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS  NEW  YEAR 2010″

Also  wish  to all  fellow  boarders  of  this  Blog “A VERY  HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS  NEW  YEAR 2010″

Vijaya Kumar G
Bangalore,  India.

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Dear Sir,

New to your blog. Sorry for the errors in posting my queries.
Here is the consolidated query again with all corrections.
I had been working in US and UK as a Software Engineer and have following:
1. 8000 USD in BankOfAmerica  (no interest checking account) – Please advise when should I sell this and where should I invest them? I am jobless at present and would like to generate some monthly income.
2. 8000 GBP in HSBC UK (ISA fixed deposit) – Please advise when should I sell this and where should I invest them? I am jobless at present and would like to generate some monthly income.
It is very less amount and I am confused with rumors and the market movements.
Please advise.

City – Mumbai, Country – India, Date – 31st Dec 2009.
Please guide me in investing for 2010.
Wish you a Happy & Prosperous New Year 2010.

Regards,
Jagdish-Mumbai, India.

Dear Sir,
Wish You And Your Family A Happy & Successful New Year 2010.
Best Regards,
Shaikh -Norway

Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.

Dear Mr. Kalidasji,

My hearty wishes to you and your family for a very happy and prosperous New Year 2010.

Also my hearty new year wishes to all readers.

Thanks & Regards,
Balaji – Hong Kong.

Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 02, 2010

Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.

Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.
 

Dear Sir,

I had been working in US and UK as a Software Engineer and have following:
1. 8000 USD in BankOfAmerica  (no interest checking account) – Please advise when should I sell this and where should I invest them? I am jobless at present and would like to generate some monthly income.
2. 8000 GBP in HSBC UK (ISA fixed deposit) – Please advise when should I sell this and where should I invest them? I am jobless at present and would like to generate some monthly income.
It is very less amount and I am confused with rumors and the market movements.
Please advise.

Regards,
Jagdish

Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Further, you ignored all protocols – did not mention city, country and date of posting in very first post.

Wrogly posted in January 2010. This section has not started at all. We will reply in January.