949-228-7621 anilselarka@gmail.com

CONFUSED MIND CLEAR ANSWERS (2010-11)


Ref: 2010-11 of 1st November, 2010

2010 – Protocol to Observe before you post

I am starting today “2010, November series”. Post your November comments here using comment box at the bottom.

The Oct 2010 series will be archived in PDF and HTML format (to make it searchable) and is made available from Download center (It will take 7 days because old queries posted there will be replied in next few days). DO NOT POST ANY QUERIES IN Sept 2010 – It will not be answered. Old entries not yet replied will be replied there within 2 days.

I am making few changes. My reply will not be detailed as before. It will not be more than 10 lines at the most. If there is any major issue of concern or interest is shown by the readers, I will promptly address it in the form a separate post or page, so that repetitive query are not posted or answered, and the readers can enjoy only single point of reference for that issue.

The readers may note another important protocol. Please post your comments in the following format:

HEADING – Write in Capital letters, name of the stock enquired about or title of major issue as per reader’s choice. Do not extend beyond one line.

MESSAGE BODY

  1. Write your query or specific question very clearly.
  2. Do not use compliments for my predictions or assessments. Yes, you can criticize.
  3. Write each issue in one Para.
  4. Do not use essay form. Write to the point, do not be apologetic for anything nor bother about what I would feel about your post, just speak out your mind clearly.
  5. Use your normal word processor, to write your comments first, think over it, have it spell checked with proper capitalization, and then only post it.
  6. Make a standard format or template using the present protocol, so that you do not forget anything like your name, city etc.

At the END OF MESSAGE, please mention without fail

  • your Name (you can use nickname, but mention real name in the bracket as I do)
  • City
  • Country and
  • Date of posting (although I know it, but when I consolidate at month end, the program does not use the posted date. It is better you write the date of posting and time (not so essential)

Formatting your posts in above manner will make entire post pleasant, eye catching, and highlight the stocks or subject in such a way that other readers can scroll through easily to find what they want even from your message.

Kalidas (Anil Selarka)
Hong Kong,  November, 2010

MASTER INDEX (Last month on Top)

304 Comments

  1. Kalidasji,

    Can I buy your book on Subprime. Please send me the details on my email.

    Regards,
    Atul (Pune) Kalidas Says…….Thursday, December 30, 2010

    Yes, I will send you email tonight.

  2. Namaskar Anilji,

    1> Though I am aware of this blog only from last three months, will you come out with some of your special replies/predictions/declaration from your memory, as this will be closed.

    Anil Deb
    25-12-2010

    Kalidas Says…….Saturday, December 25, 2010
    It will be in the form of Articles, Sure. I am just shutting down the CMCA here as it takes too much of time and there are so many repeating and overlapping questions that I find difficult to address.

    There may be an alternating forum in other blog (www.subprimeresolved.com) my original book site that may also become an integral part of this blog. It would be a separate section under this blog, but my replies will not be there as detailed as they have been here now.

  3. Dear Sir
    Your analogy of diversification of portfolio with Food we eat is just superb. I am little worried now as my investment is only in GOld and silver (60%) , OMC/ONGC ( 20%), cash (20%). During the recent rally I sold all my portfolio( spicejet, Petronet, dish, UCO)with reasonable profit and moved to OMCs to reduce my cost of their purchase which were higher. Also Bought some ONGC based on your recent recommendation to counter balance OMCs .Overall(70%OMC and 30% ONGC). I will reduce some OMCs once govt announce the diesel price hike on 30th( hope so).
    Though my investment in gold and silver was around 28-30%, it has become 60% in value as my buying prices were low. I am waiting for my target price of 25k gold and 50K silver to sell some.
    But my question is considering ‘cash’ as and asset class, and from the ‘Indian’ perspective, how good it is to keep 50-60% in cash with such hopeless govt ? Govt just wants to satisfy IT/BT/export lobby and keep Rupee low or they just don’t’ know what to do. As you said once everything runs here in India by accident. They don’t’ have any clue on food inflation.
    Personally in India I feel keeping in GOLD and silver is safer than keeping in Rupee, considering all relative movements of RS/USD/Gold prices.
    Sir, CMCA was Opium to me . I need to find rehabilitation camp from new Jan 1st. My wife will be happy person as she feels ,now onwards I will be listening to her instead of checking all the time CMCA for your latest posts. Hope you willnot stop the supply of words of wisedom suddenly limiting only to your articals.
    Merry christmas.
     
    Shiva
    Bangalore India.

    Kalidas Says…….Thursday, December 23, 2010
    The % allocation was based on your original investment budget. Yes, with rise in price in gold and silver, their market value might have given you exposure upto 60%.

    Read my comments/reply to Priya today. I would not reduce my exposure to OMC until their prices double at least from current level. I would sit on them like a hen hatching the egg.

    Current interest rates of about 8% is good enough to keep the cash portion in FD with instant borrowing facility to take advantage of stock specific situation. 8% is a lot of interest. It is equivalent to gold price rise of about $110 per ounce (Rs 1600 per 10 grams) or Silver price by $ 2.20 (Rs 3200 rise per kg).

    Do not keep round figure as target. When the gold rises to 23500, sell some, and also when the Silver reaches Rs 48000 or about, sell some, raise the cash and invest as under:

    1. Ispat industries (below Rs 25) – Spend about Rs 100,000 or so (4000 shares)
    2. Confidence Petrleum (Below Rs 20) – Spend another Rs 100,000 (5000 shares)
    3. Buy some IDBI Bank 800 shares
    4. Keep some amount in FD with borrowing facility. Earn about 8% (chose period accordingly)
    5. Raise the exposure to OMC after the prices are raised. Do not sell until you have seen the prices doubling almost.

    GOOD that you will be going back to your wife. She is always better place to be with rather than Kalidas.

  4. Dear Sir,

    Your target of 120 for Satyam by March 2011 is  still intact.Any revision of date and price?!

    Regards

    Krishna
    Hyderabad, India

    Kalidas Says….Wednesday, December 15, 2010
    April end 2011 when the March quarter earnings would be announced.

  5. Dear Sir-
    Is it the right time to start investing in RD with Rs. 10000/pm for 10 yrs with interest rate of 8.75% in SBI?
     
    Thanks,
    Siva, Chennai

    Kalidas says….Tuesday, 7 Dec 2010
    Not a bad idea but the rates may rise even more, up to 12% at least. RD interest rates are always 2% lower than highest FD interest. By rule of thumb, rates at any time over 8% is always a good idea to begin with to invest in FD.

    In any case, open the RD even now, in the name of your school going child. When the interest rates are 12% or more in FD (whatever the RD rate then), open every 3 months one RD account for 7,8, 8, 10 years RD with higher instalment for short maturity and lower for longer one.

  6. Kalidas Ji
    Thanks a lot all the knowledge sharing.
    Do let all of us know how would you be in touch with folks ( people like us ) while you are in US.

    Final episode of December CMCA is not showing comment box to post any messgage to you.

    Regards
    Raj
    Banaglore
    Dec 1st posted in NOV column.

    Kalidas Says…..Friday, 3 December, 2010
    Comments are already appearing in December column. sometime old version of IE 6 does not work well with this web page. You have to use IE8 or Mozilla or Google chrome

  7. Dear Kalidas Sir,
    thanks for your kind word of advise.
    apologies to ask again, but Please could you send me your contact details , as I am unable to trace the old mail.
    Also sir do you suggest to enter in market at this time i.e. sensex 19700, or further correction is expected ??  since from 2-3 days market is going UP continuously , despite dow going down.
     
    Regards
    $amir, 01/12

  8. Dear Sir,
    Regarding your comment on rampant corruption in india & developed countries being cleaner, i feel that if we take a per capita figure of corruption/malpractices west and in particular US would be at No.1. Huge population of India is a boon when people need human resources and a bane when we see that the same population adds to the hurdles/tables that we come across in govt corridors. I doubt whether a country like US or UK would have remained a sovereign state in the current state if these nations had similar challenges as India – population/diversity etc.
    We tend to complain much on state of affairs in India while overlooking how ‘too big to fail’ entities like AIGs/GS etc are actually fleecing people of their savings. I still believe in your earlier opinions that such states would face extreme divisive pressures in future like in europe.
    However, life is always lived in its present state. Wish you a very happy, healthy, relaxing life ahead with your kith and kin. Your views, opinions – on stocks and otherwise- have been invaluable for me in these learning stages. My sincere wishes are with you.
    Thanks
    Raghav
    Bangalore

  9. Dear Kalidas Sir,

    I am your ardent follower since MMB days and admire your almost crystal ball like ability to predict the financial dynamics of the world in general and Indian stock market in particular and hence a bit disappointed with your decision to close down this medium of direct interactions with your fans.. You wish to close down CMCA because people ask too many repetitive questions without bothering to go back into the old posts and almost want a live commentary on the stocks they are invested in… It eats a lot of your time and arguably so, but to reply or not to reply is in your hand.. you can respond to the questions on the merit and uniquness of those and ignore those repetitive, lethargic and off the cuff ones. Do we not usually limit ourselves to 6-8 TV channels even though 200 odd channels are broadcasted (read bombarded) 24X7 according to our taste and likings. We do not close down the TV for good or disconnect the cable network just because too much of content across all channels eats up on our time.

    In these kind of public forum you would always have elements who will not toe your line of discipline hence you would have to exercise discretion and selectively answering the questions keeping this forum alive. I am quite sure that most of the people on this forum will agree to me proposition (you can tak a poll) however they won’t say that lest they would antagonise you.

    Having said this, I took the liberty to breach into your prerogative of running this show the way you would like it to be, but I sometimes question my dad’s decision also who is almost of your age, almost as bluntly as I did to you if I am disappointed. Hope you would excuse me and read the context of my post rather than the tone of disappointment in it :)

    Thanks and sincere regards

    NSri
    Pune, India

  10. Hello Kalidasji,

    Can you please let us know the postivies of settling down in USA ? I totally understand your decision that all your immediate family is there so you would want to settle there. I am asking in terms of person who is here on work visa.

    I hear in media about how hyper-inflation is going to hit USA hard, prices of every commodity will sky-rocket, there will be un-rest in society because of hyper-inflation.

    Thanks
    NIPI
    Washington DC USA

  11. Hello Sir,
    I am following you since 2008 when you used to put your comments on moneycontrol.com. I was/am always a big time follower of yours. Basically I read your comments not to trade in stocks but to know financial health of World and in which direction we are heading to.
    I love you!! and I really want to thank you from deep core of my heart. I live in USA, Bay Area, CA, I wonder if I could meet you some day.
    I recently started looking into US stock market. I wonder if you are interested in it and would you ever consider to invest in Dow.
    Once again, sincere thanks
    Have a wonderful day ahead!
    Regards
    Amit, CA – US

    Kalidas Says…..Friday, 3 December, 2010
    Not at the moment. DOw is the most overvalued market in the world. however, you have to be selective in stock picking. i will advise only after visiting and settling in USA because the information flow in India is very low. Even the channels like CNBC and bloomberg devote themselves more on Indian stocks.

  12. Hello,
    Hope this message will find you at best of your health, I have 3750 SAIL @200, FPO of SAIL is about to come in by JAN -FEB 2011, I am nervous as we just see that FPO of SCI is undervalued, So will it be a wise decision to switch From SAIL to TATA STEEL? Please advice.
    Somnath Bhattacharjee
    Kolkata
    West Bengal
    India

    Kalidas Says…..Friday, 3 December, 2010
    Never think of swapping stocks from lower value (say 200) to Higher value stocks such as Tata Steel (>600). Your fears are midplaced. Stay with SAIL for the time being.

  13. Hello Sir,
    Following your advice I sold off all my stocks and in recent correction I have bought back HPCL 300 stocks and IOC 375 stocks totaling around 2.7 lacs. I have 7 lacs more of investible funds available that I don’t need in near future.
    Is there any other stock I can look to buy? Satyam, IDBI or SpiceJet etc?
    Thanks in advance,
    Aman,
    Noida, India

    Kalidas Says…..Friday, 3 December, 2010
    Always buy when the markets are down. Right now, the stocks have rallied and there is no news around to pull down the market in very short time.

    Better buy 2000 shares of Satyam at CMP (<66). Wait for others.

  14. Dear Kalidas Ji,

    Of late you are advising to exit SpiceJet in totality, while you initially maintained it for long term with partial profit booking around 92 with objective to reenter at lower levels. Are there any recent developments that you are advising to sell all and exit the counter?

    regards,
    Anurag
    Noida, India

    Kalidas Says…Tuesday, 30 November, 2010
    No special reason and poor market to make it a trading sell. My original recom remain same.

  15. dear sir,
    I am now 100% cash.my total budget is 5 lakhs for equity.Shall i invest only 25000 rs in ioc as per your 5% buy call?
    Thanking you
    Sunny singh, bhopal

    Kalidas Says…Tuesday, 30 November, 2010
    Spend 50,000 each for IOC and HPCL.

  16. Dear Mr Anil
    I have been going through the blog for several days, i appreciate your decision to join your family in USA. I truly appreciate your familys decision to share your valuable knowledge with us.
    I once again wish you and your family all the best.
    May be we meet in USA during my vacation.
    Best Regards
    Manoj Kumar.V.S.
    HYDERABAD

    Kalidas Says……Tuesday, 30 November, 2010
    Thanks

  17. Dear Sir
    It is exactly one year since I sought your advice for the first time in Nov 2009. Having quietly followed your advice, I must say that this one year has been the most successful for me in terms of my investments and I built-up a solid & well-diversified portfolio of assets (gold / silver / stocks / FDs, etc). Please accept sincere thanks for the same from myself & my family.
    Based on your stocks sell call in October 2010, I managed to liquidate almost 40% of my stocks (at average profit of around 80%), however, since I was posted at a very short notice to North Africa with limited internet access for the last month, I am still stuck with the following:
    Stock : Evinix, Quantity : 18000, Bought at : 3.89, CMP : 2.58.
    BUY 7000 more at CMP and rest
    Stock : IFCI, Quantity : 1800, Bought at : 53, CMP : 60.45.
    SELL in a rally and do not buy back until it is <50
    Stock : IOC, Quantity : 1050, Bought at : 380, CMP : 345.
    HOLD
    Stock : Spicejet, Quantity : 2100, Bought at : 57.3, CMP : 78.8
    SELL all.
    Stock : MRPL, Quantity : 3900, Bought at : 77.9, CMP : 70.2.
    BUY 600 at CMP + 500 if weaker <65 otherwise stay put
    Stock : Punj Lloyd, Quantity : 1500, Bought at : 150, CMP : 96.5.
    BUY 500 at CMP
    Stock : Satyam, Quantity : 4500, Bought at : 74.2, CMP : 60.8.
    BUY 500 at CMP
    Stock : Zee News, Quantity : 3000, Bought at : 13.35, CMP : 13.05. - Do nothing
    Please advice if any actions are required on the above stocks, or I should keep holding the same as they are.
    Thanks & Regards
    Vikas Sharma, Dubai, UAE

    Kalidas Says……Tuesday, 30 November, 2010
    Reply as above. Buy a new of HPCL at least 500 at CMP. You may hold back on MRPL as above if you are buying HPCL

    Also, think of buying IDBI Bank later <140

  18. Dear Anilji,

    thank you so much for selflessly sharing your deep knowledge of financial markets with so many readers. Your blog is kind of anchor for us who can come here for solution to any investment problems that we have. I remember you once vouching for Ispat Ind. I have been investor in this company for past 4 years without any reward. I have 25% of my holding in Ispat Ind at an average of Rs 23/ Today I read on a site called futur-option-tips.blogspot.com that Ispat has target of 0.80 in one month. Since you have analysed this company earlier, do you think that share of this company would languish to that low level. This company is not transparent and investor friendly but I still had faith that it would turn around and investor would be rewarded. Please share your views on this company. I can keep this share for one more year.

    thanks

    madhu saran
    noida, India 

    Kalidas Says……Tuesday, 30 November, 2010
    It is wishful thinking at the moment. yes, last quarter was bad in numbers but reasons not known. I am negative on steel prices, in fact all commodity prices in future, except Gold and Silver. I therefore do not expect much improvement in this counter. You have too much investment in single scrip, and that too in a loss making company for years. I do not know why the company should trade at just Rs 0.80 – there may be some mistake.

    Since other high quality stocks have come down, recovering 25% loss in them is easy, if you are willing to hold for at least 12 months or so. Sell some of ISPAT and switch to Zee News that has also corrected by same extent.

    BUY some HPCL and make it 25% of your portfolio. Hold cash for the rest.

  19. Dear Anilji,
    A kind request.Stop saying “I may not live to see that ..If im alive” kind of things.You are just 62 and there are many who has you in their prayers for your health and prosperity.I dont have the age to tell that to you,but still please avoid for us.
    Notwithstanding corruption and immorality pervading in Indian society, one should not lose hopes. He should contribute whatever he can by at least remaining clean by himself. in this Universe, there is perrenial rule that cycle always turns – it never remain stationary.”
    Great words of wisdom..Really changed my viewpoint on everything.Thanks again.
    Warm regards,
    RavikumarPandian,
    Chennai,TN,India

    Kalidas Says….Monday, 29 Nov, 2010
    No more such references in future.

  20. Kalidasjii
    When govt disinvestment happens on stock or FPO is initiated like SCI FPO (Shipping corporation of India),  is it good for the stock or bad?  This question is just for understanding purpose, please reply if your time permits.
     
    Regards
    Manjunatha Shetty
    Bangalore India
    Nov 30 2010

    Kalidas Says….Monday, 29 Nov, 2010
    It is always good. When India was having scarce resources, Government under Jawaharlal Nehru conceived number of plants in basic industries. Now that India has matured, Government is divesting itself of its 5 decades investmentm and cashing onto it.

    It is more like you made some really long term investment and when the time comes you get out of it by selling the investment item. Same goes for the government.

    The government’s job is to govern, not to do any business. The business is always left to the private sector.

    Shipping Corporation of India was one of such investment. Now that shipping industry has matured to some extent, the government is cashing it out to reduce its own budget deficit. It is more like you have lot of overdrafts and debts. You reduce it by selling your assets and applying the proceeds to the loan account.

    SCI is a good company. It is also a good stock to own, but whether it is pricey or not, I do not know, The market is slippery, so the valuations might go down.

    Port sector is developing very fast. Obviously, the goods will be eventually transported to and from such ports through companies like SCI (and host of others). The shipping sector will therefore benefit most.

    Look at China – it developed only after its port and road related infrastructure improved. Almost all developed countries have one thing in common – they have good ports and roads leading to and from. The China became prosperous from there on. Same will happen to India, but at slower pace.

  21. Sir
    You are considering that bear phase in Indian stock market  has started and there would be recession in India in another seven months. It means keeping cash now instead of stocks should be best strategy, Does any sector grow in recession ?
    Regards
    arun
    Mumbai, india

    Kalidas Says….Monday, 29 Nov, 2010
    Food, Finance, Software and Auto sector will grow automatically. So also the Agriculture. Fertilizer too.

  22. Heading: WOULD LIKE TO AVERAGE RCOM…NEED YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE SAME
     
    Hello Sir,

    I have been holding and averaging RCOM from 2007. I currently hold 2300 shares @ 305 avg. I am left with 1.5 lacs. As the stock has fallen today to 127. Do you suggest to average or exit. If you think I should exit at the current price, which shock would you advice so that I can cover my loss.
     
    Nick Name: Montu   
    Real Name: Mayur Taluka
    City: Hyderabad
    Country: India
    Date of posting: Nov, 29, 2010

    Kalidas Says….Monday, 29 Nov, 2010
    Your cost is 305 against CMP of 127, that is, loss of Rs 188 or 62% from original purchase level or by 150% from current level as base.

    RCOM is technically bankrupt but it may find investors. May be you can take a chance to average down. I would prefer switch over to some other valuable stock which I have not found as easily as before. You may take a chance to buy more around 121 level or so, but when you come to good profit, just sell it.

  23. Anil ji,

    I have sent you one email on readers.kalidas@gmail.com. Is that the right ID? I will be really grateful if could you please reply to that?

    Regards,
    Rahul  R R
    London, UK

    Kalidas Says….Monday, 29 Nov, 2010
    Yes, it is right ID. Received your mail, i suppose, but you may have to wait for the reply as I am travelling again from tomorrow.

  24. Hi,
    Congrats & all the best for ur decision to settle in USA.
    Please share ur view on the following:
    Wikileaks began on Sunday November 28th publishing 251,287 leaked United States embassy cables, the largest set of confidential documents ever to be released into the public domain. The documents will give people around the world an unprecedented insight into US Government foreign activities.
    http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/
    WikiLeaks exposes how UAE and Turkey betrayed India to appease Pakistan. According to the revelations, the cables show that Turkey purposely kept India out of a summit on Afg hanistan earlier this year to appease Pakistan. UAE’s crown prince Mohammed Bin Zayed referred to as MBZ in the cables was supporting the US decision to sell F-16 aircrafts to Pakistan to keep a balance of strength between India and Pakistan.
    http://www.timesnow.tv/Exposed-UAE-Turkey-betrayed-India/articleshow/4359457.cms
    Regards,
    Ojal Suthar, Udaipur, INDIA
     

  25. Respected sir,
    After a long gap I am writing you my nephew has left us on 13 Oct 10 after so much of suffering due to disease .Your support & the support of fellow boarders was really a great help to me and my family to overcome from the sorrow of his loss. Next you were absolutely correct in predicting the rampant corruption in our country and I have also faced the ground realities of corruption which is deep rooted in every field in India except the scientific Institution at which I have undergone a training for short duration scientists are still free from the greed and have same devotion for the country which is only a motivating factor for me .Health sector is most corrupted as doctors are making money by selling even dead bodies .Doctors have forgotten their ethics of profession.The rich or elite class is involved more in corruption than the common man .When ever I am getting depressed or stressed I start reading your old downloaded and compiled comments and I again feel de stressed and motivated as when I compare the environment of the day to day life of selfish,greed corruption with your devoted help to readers spending sleepless nights at this age I start thinking about the new begaining for life. Kindly accept my hearty congratulation to you & your family for your new home at St Diego.

    kdchahar Ghaziabad India 28/11/10

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 28 Nov, 2010
    THESE DAYS SHALL NOT REMAIN FOREVER was the banner prominently displayed at my neighbour’s home. He used to work in Bank of Baroda (he is no more having heart attack in early age); I asked him the significance of this banner (it was in native Gujarati – AA Divso hammeshan Raheshe Nahin – in literary Gujarati.

    He told me that it meant that in good and brighter days, it forewarns you that these days shall not remain for ever, so better save and prepare yourself ahead of bad days.

    In worse days, it would offer solace and comfort by giving hopes and confidence that these dark days too shall not remain for ever. There will be morning one day. There was also a famous song sung by Mukesh – Yeh Subah to kabhi Aayegi.

    Notwithstanding corruption and immorality pervading in Indian society, one should not lose hopes. He should contribute whatever he can by at least remaining clean by himself. in this Universe, there is perrenial rule that cycle always turns – it never remain stationery.

    I very much regret the loss of your naphew, a dear one to your family. This is where we all are going to go one day – so get over the gloom and re-engage yourself in something useful and worthwhile.

    A day will come when India will be better – may be you will see it in your lifetime – I may not, but look around there is always some change. Good people are there always and working silently to make the things better. Do not look at bad guys – just look at some really good guys – they are not stupid. They are the pillars on whom the entire edifice rests.

  26. IRISH ECONOMY
    Dear Sir,
    Your views on the bailout package for ireland pls.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-28/ireland-wins-113-billion-bailout-as-eu-ministers-seek-to-halt-debt-crisis.html
    I have been in the country from past 7 years. In a relatively safe job, with above average salary (around €45 K). I have decided to be my own boss. There are some opprtunities, which I believe are knocking my doors. But something is holding me back,  seeing the way thigs have turned sour in the country from last two years. House prices habe tumbled around 30-40 % all across ireland. When we pass through the city, half of the shops have shut their doors and everytime you go in city, you find another few places are shut. Will it be suicidal to start business at this point of time. Also the business I am thinking of is retail. My questions are

    Where do you see ireland is heading to? Can we ever expect it to recover to 2006-2007 levels?
    will house prices still correct?
    Government have decided to reduce the minimum wage from 8.65 to 7.65 €/hr. what will be short and long term effects of this?
    Is it a right time to jump into the business?

    I have always benefited from you guidance and hope you can throw some light on this, which may help me making decisions.
    Thanking you,
    Amit
    Galway, Ireland. 29th Nov. 2010.

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 28 Nov, 2010
    STUPID EUROPEANS SMART AMERICANS is the better way to describe the situation in Ireland. I have mentioned before that United States is all out to destroy Euro and will do anything it can to achieve that aim. Americans are smart in their belief that let the world know that there are Europeans who are in deeper shit than they (Americans) are.

    Europeans were naive and stupid not to understand this game. They are more subservient to Americans than even Indians during British Raj and thereafter.

    Americans passed on all lousy and worthless derivatives on the heads of Irish banks and government there foolishly supported those banks by coming to their rescue. How could Ireland have contracted debt of over Euro 113 Billions or $ 150 billions when the country’s size was so small that its tax revenues were meager $ 30 billions?

    American brokers from Goldman Sachs,Merryl Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Bears Stearns, Smith Barney etc invented and imposed these worthless derivatives on Europeans. It was the repeat of Asian Crisis where smaller nation like Thailand was picked up to initiate the carnage. In Europe, they picked up Ireland the name not many people even know of.

    If I were the Prime Minister of Ireland, I would not have gone to the rescue to those banks and instead sued , black listed and offered Capital Punishment to all those lousy American brokers and bankers who resorted to criminal blackmail and attacked the nation economically which is really a crime against the state.

    However, the Prime Minister of Ireland caved in to pressure and although there was no crisis, he created one by supplementing and succumbing to American pressure. He should have been shot to death for plunging the entire nation to the deepest economic crisis for no fault of their nation or Irish people.

    There is nothing wrong with Spain, Italy, Greece etc. It is a rehearse of Asian Crisis. Americans want to destroy Euro and its massive publicity is in this directions. Even Irish people themselves play out the tune invented by the Americans.

    In your case, a resident of Ireland, I can not tell you more. Small business will be more secure than established jobs. However, continue in job and save as much as you can. The crisis as we are facing now is going to end only in bloodbath, so stay away from Retail trade for the time being. Let the crisis be played out in full and then venture into it. Irish people are known to be violent, so trade carefully. When the locals are in deep trouble, they look at the foreigners as scapegoat who would be labelled as job robbers rather than job creators.

    I am not discouraging you. I do not know Ireland, and there is no substitute to any business howsoever small. A small business is better place to work in than working in multinational getting fat salary. The real growth comes in freedom and you find lot of freedom in small businesses. you are your own boss.

    If at all you venture into business, make sure that your assets are adequately insured at all times. I do not know what shape the crisis will take in Euro zone because I do not have respect for the Europeans for being so docile and engaged into monkey play. They are not same smart Europeans as found in the days of Hitler and Churchil who could understand the game of opponents well in advance.

  27. Kalidasji,
     
    Formats can be changed.  Some one to take initiative to take that leadership role.  I strongly believe, you can do that.. Anyway, It is just a thought…

    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India

  28. Respected Sir,
    I am having the following portfolio, where based on your last advise to me I raised my positions in Satyam and IOC, HPCL etc, however did not exit TTML for the reason that it’s results were progressive with 3G being launched and the technology advantage it has due to association with Docomo as compared to other operators in India.
    However, the only challenge is that I am 85% invested with only 1 lac in cash, which I want to use judiciously to invest based on your advice – if I should hold for further deep cut or is it the right time now or some internal stock swaps. Kindly advice.
    Stock       Qty        ACP         CMP
    UTGold     50         1465       1965 – Sell 20 and raise cash
    Satyam    1000      90           61 – Buy 200 at CMP
    ZeeNews   1000     15.91       12.85 – Do nothing
    Evinix       15000    3.15        2.6 – Do nothing
    Cairn        100       322         300 – Do nothing
    HPCL        125       448         408 – Buy 75 when <360
    IOC          200       396         341 - Buy 100 when <287
    MTNL        250       56           51.6 - Do nothing
    RuchiInfr   500       34.61      31.75 - Do nothing
    RPower      575       213.16    157.6 - Sell 200 to buy Satyam
    Spicejet     500       53.26      82.65 - Book profit
    TTML        2500      26.74      19.15 - Buy 1500 near 18.10

    Regards,
    Navin
     Noida

    Kalidas Says….Monday, 28 November, 2010
    You are all in good stocks except a couple (not bad but they are weak). Above levels are suggested because price difference is not much to warrant any purchase considering your low cash level. When I say buy HPCL at 360 does not mean it will go that level. It is just that your price difference is just 10% which can be acheived in 2 or 3 sessions. I am not pressing panic button for these stocks.

    Selling 200 RPOWER at 33% loss and buying Satyam with equal 33% loss is for the reason that Satyam can move much faster than RPOWER. The scope for Satyam is much more. You are merely swapping position from one loss maker to another

  29. I am regular reader of your site. Your guidance on Market as well as other matters is quite useful. I salute your knowledge and most importantly unselfish attitude to share with others, which is rare.
    Best wishes for your new destination.

    Kalidas Says….Monday, 28 November, 2010
    Thanks

  30. I understand this is a down market but why is Shreeashta falling so much? I got in at Rs 42 (200 shares). Should I book loses or wait till it comes back up? I can wait 1 year or longer, if required.
    Chennai
    India
    29-Nov-2010

    Kalidas Says….Monday, 28 November, 2010
    Looks like that the promoters may have pledged their shares for other borrowing purpose or speculating in stock market. When those stocks fell and when they had no money, the margin call would have been triggered that might have caused the steep price fall.

    And why the hell did not you buy it at Rs 12 to 14 about 4 months ago when we did ask people to buy at that time. We gave sell call after it has risen to 30+ and suggested selling slowly in the rally.

    I do not understand why did you pay Rs 42, 3 times the stock price level only 4 months ago?

    Its movies are doing well, but the promoters are big gamblers. I do not think you can make more money from current purchase price level. This is bull market’s stock, doing worst in bear market in which we are.

  31. Kalidasji,
    My humble request,  why don’t you think of bringing up a kind of Zero Edge but It should discuss only about Indian Economics & Indian Markets.  I dont see any contribution from alternate (Indian) media.
    I guess You still love India & Indians.
    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai. India

    Kalidas Says….Monday, 28 November, 2010
    This blog is one man show whereas Zero Hedge has several contributors. It is not possible to emulate Zero Hedge in current format of this blog.

  32. Hi Kalidasjii,

    If you stop the CMCA, is there any other means where we can post any querry for urgent advise? Paid or free. Thanks

    Regards
    Manjunatha Shetty
    Bangalore
    Nov 29 2010

    Kalidas Says….Monday, 28 November, 2010
    I may start another column titled Reader’s Mail or something similar, where the readers may post their suggestions or important stock to be followed by me if necessary. These mails may not be answered at all, It will be for my reference sake only of what the readers expect.

  33. THANK YOU SIR:

    Dear Sir (with tonnes of gratitude),

    This was my first post and I have been following for last 6 months. As others said, the amount of knowledge, understanding and maturity gained through your blog is invaluable. Like investing with full conviction, holding for period of time. Today I have IOC@385, MRPL@78. But still no confused mind :) and happy investor. I owe a lot to you for this. Following your blog became a daily activity.

    The amount of time, you spend for us/CMCA without any returns, makes me amazing. Ppl like you are very rare. I feel it’s a good decision to stop CMCA and concentrate on stock observatory. Looking forward for your recommendations and articles.
    One request: I started following scrips (like zee news, ruchi infra, OMCs, – IFCI, Spicejet in past) through this CMCA. I came to know abt Greek debt problem, QE2 easing, your sale call 10/15 etc… through CMCA. I hope to see some space in your blog to address on-going issues/status and recommendations in brief.

    I would like to thank your wife and son for initiating you towards blogging.
    I wish you and your family, all the best and happy & healthy life.

    Regards,
    Teja, Hyderabad, India.

    Kalidas Says….Monday, 28 November, 2010
    It will be in the form of article or brief notes that may cover the area you want. It is not possible to explain such difficult topic in a few lines here.

  34. Dear Anil ji,
    I have 1300 JSW ENERGY @ 113. The CMP is 96. What do you suggest? I can hold for an year.

    Regards.
    Vijay
    Jammu

    Kalidas Says……Sunday, 28 November, 2010
    It is a good company with lots of profits. However, it seemed to have diverted lot of funds into group companies. Its total investment amount to Rs 4000 crores, almost 60% of balance sheet.

    It fell sharply on Friday, may be for the reason, that most of its shares were held by the controlling shareholders were pledged to the financing banks for other group companies. Many companies who have their promoters pledging the shares in large percentage were in trouble and faced the margin calls when the share prices fell, These companies lost most on Friday. JSW Energy could be one of them.

    Overall it is a good company but I doubt whether it will make a good money for you. You entered at the height believing in India growth story and strengthening power sector. Weak market may bring it down further if the margin calls continue on Monday. The weakening rupee suggest that there would be more FII selling on Monday.

    Stay with it for a while. If there is no margin related selling, then it will recover fast. No need to buy more now.

  35. Dear Kalidas Sir,
    I am happy that you would be moving to US close to your near and dear ones .
    The amount of knowledge and understanding that I have developed on stocks is only and only because of this blog -section CMCA, for which I would like to express my gratitude. Your  style of replies is so lucid that even person like me who doesn’t even understand the meaning of any financial jargons have started to understand these days. (as finance has never been my cup of tea …which I can say has changed now )

    Sir you are a man of wisdom and values , your ability of interpret  situation  and provide best solution  be it buying house or some one in any financial mess or any for that matter ‘global warming’   is just stupendous.
     
    I am indebted from what I have gained from this blog , and would in return pray to my sadguru for you and your family  to get the best of fame , health  and happiness.
    Regards,
    bhakti, uk

    Kalidas Says……Sunday, 28 November, 2010
    Thanks. You bowled me out clean and squarely. I appreciate your true feeling and I am glad that you learned something from me. I also learnt a lot from others. Knowledge is the only precious commodity that increases when one shares with others.

    Thanks again.

  36. Kalidasji,

    I feel very happy for you that you will settle in the US, your favourite country along with your family, also envy you because I am not qualified either academically or financially to settle in the US. I am a strict long term investor and have learnt a lot from you to look into the future. I also hold shares like IOC around 400 levels but am not bothered about the market crash. I will hold on, may add at current levels, if resources permit.

    I rarely post any queries because most of them are answered by you without asking here.

    Best Regards,

    Hem
    Mumbai

    Kalidas Says……Sunday, 28 November, 2010
    Do not “envy” me but compete with me. This is a sure way to success.

    Until I became 36 years old, I never thought that I would ever go overseas, but I did because my efforts in the bank were recognized by top executives. When I was called for the interview for foreign posting, I was greeted by the Management with a simple statement

    ” Mr. Selarka, we do not think we want to ask you any question, because we know for years how much useful to this institution. Just tell us where do you want to go – Seoul, Singapore or Hong Kong”

    I was disposed off in just under 5 minutes.

    What I want to say is that the hard work does pay sooner or later. It took over 17 years in my bank service to get this reward. But did it come.

    You should never belittle yourself and take a solace that you are not “qualified academically or financially” to settle in US. If you are not, acquire that qualification. You should ask yourself why such thoughts came into your mind and not in others. It means that luck is chiding you to do something better and better so that your ambitions finally get realized.

    May be we can meet in USA sometime later when you acquired that qualification and settle in USA, of course, If I am alive. Do not therefore delay. Start working from now on and make it as your goal.

  37. It may be your personal decision to go in for fee based stock recommendations ( for the efforts you put in ) and to consider other fee-based services.  In my view, given your reputation, financial standing and family-backing, you should not venture into the same.  I would sincerely suggest that you may stick to your initial decision to stop the CMCA ( which, of course, many of your huge followers of the section may not agree with )  and devote to stock-obsevatory column while at the same time inviting new stock ideas from the readers.  I think blessings of the God are with you by way of mental peace, knowledge and then finances.

    VC Sekar, Delhi, India

    Kalidas Says……..Sunday, 28 November, 2010
    Stock Observatory column will be free as it is now. It is only when full scale recommendations are made for individual stock that small fee may apply. I have not decided on the structure as yet.

    Subscription based service entail more expenses on the reader. When the recommendations are stock specific, the reader will pay only if he is interested in that stock, not otherwise. This way, Reader will continue to read the blog free and pay only where it is necessary for him to do so.

  38. Dear Sir,
                   I have invested 1 lakh rupees in IOC@ 440 and 1 lakh inSATYAM@105.My total budget for equity investment is 4 lakhs. Now as I am 50% invested at higher levels, I am confused regarding:
    1) Shall I invest another 25% to average it?
    2) You had mentioned to sell of 95% and retain only 5%. But I had invested 50%. What shall I do now?
                                                        Thanking you
                                                      Mahesh, New Delhi, India  

    Kalidas Says……..Sunday, 28 November, 2010
    This is what happens when you enter at higher level. I had given a call to sell 95% of your investment budget and it meant that only 5% was to be retained in stocks like IOC and Satyam. In your case, it is 10 times.

    Buy 60 shares of IOC and 500 shares of Satyam at the moment. I will take about Rs 50,000 to buy new shares. You will finally make money after a few months. Post April 2011

  39. Congratulations and thank you on your decision to devote more time to  articles than  CMCA .
    Dear sir ,
     
    Now that we have seen you in all the forms, a writer , blogger and an author , as an audience , I feel that it does a justice to your wisdom to comment on larger issues .Considering your expertise , its good that we will get to read detailed and well researched articles which will shape our thinking and to some extent our decision making  thus leaving our minds clear and confusion-less .
    I would pray that you get all the fame in the world to make the right impact . I wish to also recommend you to start linking ( publishing ) your blogs to facebook which will give enormous  and instant readership .
    Which also give a lil fear that when you become busy and famous , we might have never a chance to express our gratitude in person to you . Your journey from MMB to here and more is not only the story of Kalidas blossoming but its also part of our lives . For people like me , my thinking got changed along side your own literary evolution, in that way you are part of our personal lives , our own growth story . And that goes a long way ….
    sachin , pune , india.

    Kalidas Says……..Sunday, 28 November, 2010
    Thanks.

  40. Hi Anilji,
    I just found a stock Aakruti Holdings which rise Rs.3.21(1 year ago) to Rs.445 (now).. some 13000%..
    I wonder , even if the sector and stock is best, is it possible to get a jump like this…
     
    Thanks
    Kiruba
    Chennai.

  41. Kalidasji,

    If you need any Help in Software issues (like Database or any other open source software), I guess I can help you out.  I can spend my free time.  I am into Software Profession.
    I agree with your point that Dr. Manmohan Singh is a shameless person. He has committed a sinshame(you may better choose the best term to describe) againston Indian Democracy.   He never bothered to get elected to Lok Sabha.  He has been occupying the highest/tallest position/post  of the largest Democracy in the world as a Rajya Sabha Member for two terms.
    Late Mr. Narashima Rao contested in (Nandiyal Andhra Pradesh) and got elected by people, though he wasn’t a Lok Sabha M.P when he was assuming Prime Minister.
    I believe, they (guess who) have misused the Constitution of India. Media didn’t bother to make this as an issue, coz Manmohan singh Govt policies are favorable to few powerful people and industrialists.
    He is being called as Mr. Clean but the biggest ever scandal has taken under his nose and he didn’t bother to take action also.
    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India

    Kalidas Says……..Sunday, 28 November, 2010
    I will approach you later. I wanted to write in Database format. You need to cut and paste only. However, the readers can search based on terms say, RNRL in that reply or questions, so that all queries relating to RNRL will be displayed. I did start my own to prepare the Data base, but it was taking double the time I was devoting to CMCA section. After a while, I dropped it.

     

  42. Dear Sir,

    Thanks for your decision to revive Stock Observatory column. It was simply a meticulous column.

    I often wonder that with such a profound, sharp and accurate observations on stock maket on daily basis, how  can you categorize yourself as
    ‘not good at short term trading’. I am sure that if one simply follow your observations, they can make a kill in short term trading {In fact I did that so many times (kindly excuse me for that)}. I suspect that your anti short term trading position is not out of inability (simply, it can’t) may be out of Ideological position (may be because of ruining potentiality of  short term trading ).
    Eventhough I can not say that I was not disappointed  with discontinuation of CMCA,I have a great respect at your decision and strongly believe that readers like me will benefit more through your series of articles .
    Regards
    Krishna
    Hyderabad,India.

    Kalidas Says……..Sunday, 28 November, 2010
    Most people are not well disposed to short term trading. This is why I do not advise them to avoid their losses. Before I suggest or recommend to others, on short term basis, I have to know his risk taking abilities and his psyche to appreciate his mental make up.

    In long term investment, the things are more balanced, and the short term psyshe is not that important because one negative is balanced by other positive.

    Stock Observatory column will be more precise for short to medium term trading. It will be crisp and to the point. It will be Chopai like that of Sant Kabir. Only 4 liners. My readers will understand me more than before because they know my style and make up.

  43. Dear Kalidas Sir,
    Please suggest if you are still in Mumbai, I am so much regretful that, the other day when you were selling your ghatkopar flat, that saturday i was to come to meet you, and for that I called you also, but I could not meet you the next Sunday, as I went my home town.. and after I came back , I was occupied in company or other work over weekends.. I remember you told me over the phone in Gujarati, that , “aapne roj j site par maliye che, ane tame hamna phone par pan vaat kari pachi rubaru malwani shi jaroor che” , but sir you wont understand, but the respect which we have for you is immense, and you are like a celebrity or hero for us. for me you are guru ji , bcoz, I never had any good guru in my life till now , and second you saved me from my FO trading habits.
    Regards
    $amir , 11/27

    Kalidas Says……..Sunday, 28 November, 2010
    When you say that I am guru, I visualize myself having dressed like Rishi or Sadhu having long hairs with ado and beards, sitting in samadhi posture.

    I have been always a learner with big L hanging around my neck. It took a bit long to realize that I have upgraded myself from L to G (Guru)

    We will meet some day in person in Mumbai. Right now I am more mobile. Will be in Mumbai on 5/12 and remain until 9/12 when I will depart for USA via Hong kong

  44. Dear Sir,
    I feel rather than stopping this CMCA section, PLEASE make it a subscription based model so that you will receive manageable queries from serious readers and will give you resources to manage this site better.
    The issue is that i don’t know other person who can provide clear understanding to probably most complex issues in our lives and many others will agree with me.
    Regards,
    Vivek, Gurgaon, India, 27/11/10

    Kalidas Says……..Sunday, 28 November, 2010
    After settling in USA, I will devote my time to two websites separately, one devoted to India and another International – more devoted to USA and Hong Kong.

    I will consider your other suggestions regarding subscription based services. However, I intend to issue fee based stock recommendations so that I also get paid for the efforts I take. ]

    Other services will remain free as always.

  45. MAHINDRA SATYAM

    Respected Sir,

    I have been trying to invest for my fund needs in 2013. I have been continuously investing since 2009. Since the markets had run up quite a lot, I felt that i should invest in a stock with value for money and selected Satyam, which had been undervalued for multiple reasons. Through continuous accumulation from 21 to 105.7, now I have 34,300 stocks at average of Rs.72.3. Now I am at a marginal loss plus notional interest loss. I have fresh funds available – around 4.5 lakhs. I would need this amount with my original investment in 2013.

    Sir, i have two questions for you

    a) Can i go ahead and buy another tranche of 8000 Satyam stocks at 60 or sub 60 levels? or Any better options available in the timeframe of next 2 years?

    b) Although I am confident about the company and management, the recent trend has made me worry about the prospects in 2013. My fund requirement in 2013 is around 90 lakhs. If I buy Satyam now and lock 42,000 stocks for 2 years, then the price has to reach 200 in 2013 to meet my target. Is this feasible and any suggestions for alternative options?

    My apologies for the longish mail

    KALIDAS SAYS……Saturday, 27 November, 2010
    It is enough. If you want good return in 2013, better buy IOC, BPCL, HPCL and MRPL all of whom have become cheaper by 10% to 15% of late. Satyam is good but you can not have only chapati all the time – you have to have rice at the end of the meal after all. Variety is the spice of life.

  46. Dear sir,
    I have following shares
    Stock           Qty   ACP   CMP
    PetronetLNG 3700  83.80 119.20
    Would you suggest me to sell the same and invest in IOC, HDCL or continue buying more in Petronet LNG itself. I have nearly 2 lakhs in hand to invest.
    Regards
    K. Anil, Dubai, UAE

    KALIDAS SAYS……Saturday, 27 November, 2010
    I have already asked everyone to sell this stock once it passed through 120 level. It is fully priced here, though on 2 years point of view, it can still double.

    However, stocks like IOC could rise 400%, not Petronet from current level. May be you sell some of the stocks in rally (gas related stocks went up of late) and switch to IOC. Nevertheless, do hold about 25% of stocks on long term basis. Almost all Gas based stocks would rise and float in the air the way the gas do. I exhorted almost everyone to buy gas based stocks when Petronet and GSPL were near thirties. It was about 15 months ago and now we find wholesome return even after strong correction recently.

    Gas based stocks hold the key in future. Those who have gas will have luxury to float in the air for next 5 years.

  47. Dear Kalidasji,
    I don’t know how I discovered “KALIDAS”, but, association with you started sometime before your book came out. And because of sheer brilliance in your replies to questions others asked, you replies dazzled many here and we all got hooked onto this blog. Many would agree with me that Kalidas had become daily part of MUST read. Then your book came out. And all in all I and many would agree with me that we had a very profound impression of your anecdotal discourses through this blog and that changed how we think and invest. And all of us profited because of YOU.

    One reader “princeofindia” asked what I asked before but he was more direct or eloquent in his question and I got the answer. If I want I can also migrate to US but do not have a heart when I see the avalanche of problems could crop up in no time in US. Also, I do not have any family strings attached to US, so, I am more at home in India with all its problems related to corruption and poor governance. These days I am getting a feeling that WEST has enslaved THIRD World economically. West is more corrupt and Indian politicians are just mimicking the political model the west has followed for last thousands of years.

    Anyway, thanks for giving chance to interact with you. At least I would be able to keep in touch with you through your articles. But there is no charm in that compared to reading your replies to some Good/Bad/Ugly questions asked by other people and reading your replies to them.
    Thanks a Lot and wish you a Happy Journey !

    Dongre, India, Nov 27/2010

    KALIDAS SAYS……Saturday, 27 November, 2010
    In my 26 years of stay in Hong Kong, I could not make a single friend. We were living in “Hi” and “Bye” society.

    After starting this blog, at sheer insistence of my wife and my son who told me that I must share knowledge with others. What is the use of having a reservoir of water (knowledge) if you can not distribute even a drop of it to others, my wife and son asked?.

    And never before I have had such large audience as my friend. Although at times, there were some direct, indirect, comfortable and uncomfortable questions, but I took the view that when one takes trouble of writing to me, be it in praise or criticism, he is indeed my fan and friend.

    I never celebrated my birthday in my life (except when my American employer bought super size pizza and cake for distribution in celebration of my birtyday). However, in this column I got thousands of wishes and goodwill from well informed readers. This is what I earned, when someone asked me what did I get in writing free blog? If it were not for this blog, I would not have been inspired to write my beautiful book that is feather in my cap.

    Thanks to all of you. I am going to USA to spend really good time with my grand children and my wife who is away from me for over 4 months – we never lived separately even for a day in last 36 years of married life. May be something good will happen there because of late most of my issues are getting sorted out earlier and easily than ever before. My friend said to me – this is first indication of what is going to happen to me in United States.

    And my son and daugther said to me – Hey, old man, you will become younger again in this country (USA). Forget other countries and focus here.

  48. Dear Sir,
    Is the bribe for loan sanction scam the starting point for bursting of the real estate bauble in India. Can housing become affordable for middle class in the near future after the burst.
     
    With regards
    Vijay Bhat
    Pune, India
    27 November 2010

    KALIDAS SAYS……Saturday, 27 November, 2010
    Yes, but the loan facility may not be forthcoming so quickly as before, because most of the Home Financing Banks will have lot of NPA relating to advance to Real Estate sector.

    Cash will be the king again. One can drive the hardest bargain when you have money in your pocket and they have property on the table.

  49. MRPL and IOC (FPO)

    Dear Klidasji,

    I read one of the responses to one of the readers where you suggested to buy MRPL around Rs.61 and not before.

    Any specific reason for that , as just a week back you had suggested to one of my questions that MRPL is very positive and it will move to Rs 120 levels within the next month or so, when its price was around Rs 90 and that it was too early to sell.
    I am not trying to question your judgement , just wanted to know the reason why suddenly this change in the view , is it because of the current market conditions , or anything to do with the probability of  ONGC FPO not coming up during this fiscal.
    Is ONGC trying to merge MRPL with itself before the FPO comes through or so.
    Just wanted to know the reason for your change in view, as MRPL has moved down from the Rs 90 levels to below Rs 70 levels , and is close to its year lows even after the petrol deregulation and good results posted by MRPL.

    Also looking at thecurrent FPO’s from Power grid( last 3 months price was between Rs 100- 110) and now Shipping Corporation Of India ( FPO band 140-146 and last  3months price has been between Rs190 and Rs 165) , looks like the FPO’s are being priced pretty low(discount) to the market prices of these stocks in the past few months , based on this trend looks like the IOC FPO may be the band of Rs (325-350) is that possible and not as per what was proposed earlier by them around Rs 450 levels ? If so dont see the price of IOC moving anywhere close to Rs 400 in the next 5-6 months assuming the markets stabilise at these levels.
    Your views on this .

    Thanks

    Rahul Bondre
    Mumbai India
    Nov 27 2010

    Kalidas Says…….Saturday, 27 November, 2010
    Are you out of your mind? Each reader has old position that may be higher or lower priced. If it was higher priced, we tell them to average down in such a way that overall price is at acceptable average. If someone has bought stock A at Rs 100 and the stock is at just 90, I do not advise them to average down because the price difference is very small for relatively small priced stock. However, when the stock goes to Rs 70 or about, then it becomes eligible for averaging. When the market is very weak with almost 500 shares trading at lower circuits (that means there are no buyers), we have to scale down the price to 61 or about. I have mentioned before that the price of 71 is mid priced range, it may go down or up depending on the market. MRPL consolidated at between 75 to 80 for a long time, so if someone had bought the stock at Rs 100, I will ask them to buy at Rs 61 (strong support figure) so that average price works out to Rs 80 or about, the general consolidation level.

    Do not compare one reader’s position with yours. Further, there is no change in view, and I have been recommending IOC, HPCL, BPCL and MRPL consistently. When my target is almost 300% higher, it makes no difference for me whether you bought at Rs 90 or at Rs 70 or Rs 100. When the price becomes cheaper due to worsening market where margin calls on heavy players are playing havoc, we have to scale down the buy level,as part of buying strategy.

    Please do not go on reminding me about each stock from time to time on short term movements here and there. I have given my target, so be guided by them. you have seen the result of MRPL and other OMC and also Satyam, there was nothing wrong with the respective company. Just because of scandals running into thousands of crores, if the market goes down, you buy those scrips. To buy any scrip at lower level, it has to go down for whatever reason.

    I do not bother about IPO and FPO and mentioned this reason number of times. I can not give you ball by ball commentary. I have given a call of sale 95% of the stock retaining only 5%, so when the market goes down, those sitting with cash may use some of them selectively.

    I do not bother about power utiility stocks – never invested in them – that is my known position over the years. So I do not care about IPO or FPO of Power grid or whatever.

    SCI and other stocks may be good and poor market sentiments will force them to lower price band, so what? If the stock is worth at Rs 380, why not it is worth at Rs 325?

    I have told readers number of times that IOC will become No. 1 company in India in less than 3 years and it will be the most valuable stock to own. Now, whether its FPO goes to Rs 450 in bull market or Rs 350 in weak market makes no difference to me when my target is over Rs 2500 or about. You know the reasons, you know the earnings, read my article again on OMC.

    Do not ask me my views again and again. Either you accept the original views with all variation related to market conditions or just bypass my recommendations. It is simply not possible to give you daily guidance. We expect Investors to be mature enough to take adult decision.

  50. Dear Sir,
    CMCA is great for your readers but its taking too much time for you.
    Many thanks for your time. We, your readers, are indebted to you for sharing your wisdom.
    I believe in stock observatory you will opine about scripts you think are important. May I suggest that there you provide readers an option of suggesting you some scripts which they think are important and you have not looked at them?
    Along this line, here is my query about eveready industries india (bse: 531508). It is trading at pe multiple of 3 and its financial does not look bad:
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/financials/evereadyindustriesindia/ratios/EII02
    Please opine.
     
    Thanks,
    v8r, Stockholm, Sweden.

    Kalidas Says…….Saturday, 27 November, 2010
    Agreed. I will specify a section where readers can post their suggestions or demand. I will note the Reader’s requirements and try to meet those demand if possible. However, there will be no reply to the readers.

  51. Hi Sir
    A small suggestion that  may be beneficial to your followers like me: Rather than closing the forum, if you can limit the number of questions posted to you to say 5-10 per day (introduce a limit), that may help because most of the people have similar queries that may get answered when you answer those ques.
    Please consider.
    Thanks
    Ramandeeo Singh
    Amritsar (Punjab)

    Kalidas Says…….Saturday, 27 November, 2010
    I tried this before but did not work out. Some readers join new and have no time to go through old CMCA. They therefore post their queries without realizing that they were answered before. It is quite understandable because we do not have proper form of database from where old comments specific to stock could be retrievable.

  52. I have following shares what would you advise

    Stock       Qty   ACP  CMP
    IFCI        400    68.32  56.6 – Buy when it is below Rs 45, not before.
    SATYAM   1000  113.65  61.9 – BUY 1000 more at CMP
    RUCINF    1150  36.4  30.15 Do nothing
    INDOIL     88     442.19  344.8 Buy 112 at CMP
    MRPL       400    78.91  69.2 Do nothing

    Kalidas Says……Friday, 26 November, 2010
    My reply against each stock.

  53. Dear Kalidas,I have some worthless shares.Can I get the benifit of deduction from capital gains.                         
    Balchender,Hyderabad,India.    November 26,2010  

    Kalidas Says……Friday, 26 November, 2010
    Yes, if they are held for over 12 months, the losses would be termed as long term losses that can set off only long term gains.

    If you are holding shares for <12 months, then you can claim deduction on your current income.

  54. Dear Sir,
    What do you think about the Recent Sell-Off in Indian Market, largely because of SCAM.
    And do you think we can see the sell-off like 2008-09?
    OR do you think we can buy STOCK like OMC in the recent correction?
    I only hold HPCL 600 shares@380/-(CMP-412)
    and IOC 600 shares@380/-(CMP-345)

    Both the above stock have corrected more then 30% from their Recent Highs, Do you advise ME to buy more of the above two Stock?

    Regards
    Basant Kejriwal,Delhi,India

    Kalidas Says……Friday, 26 November, 2010
    It merely certifies that India is the most corrupt country in the world who has ineffective Prime Minister and equally inept cabinet ministers everywhere except in Finance Ministry. Pranab will outshine others.

    Politically engineered crash does not have lasting effect. But the fact of the matter is that India was really having negative fundamentals which I have been harping for over 3 months now. when I gave Sale call about 2 months ago to sell between 7/10 and 15/10, it was based on worsening economic fundamentals. I did not envisage the rapid succession of scandals running into thousands of crores of rupees. Manmohan Singh was useless Prime Minister – he did not have courtesy to address the nation on live TV at least once to reassure the people who had elevated him to the power. He was shameless in all fairness.

    Yes, the mini crash came but due to wrong reasons. The core fundamentals will show their ugly faces in less than 8 months when India begins to slide into recession.

    There will not be sell off similar to 2008-09. It was based on economic events but this crash was ignited by political events. When such news begin to get into third and fourth page, the market will begin to recover. However, the people will not be that bullish as before.

    Buy HPCL and IOC if your resources permit. There may be more selling on Monday because Rupee has turned weaker suggesting that FII have sold Rupee for dollars anticipating further sale of their equity holdings. The market may slide to 18,800 (it may go to 18,765 before rebounding) and if it stays there, it would be a good sign of stability.

  55. Dear Kalidas Sir,
     
    thanks for helping small investors like me..in one of your post you mentioned real estate will crash along with others, but what about those who have independent house and not apartment in Bangalore ?
    will they also get severly impacted ? since I hv an independent house in Bangalore , getting 30% of monthly EMI as rent. and due to some attachment we are not willing to sell it for foreseeable future
    Regards
    $amir, Mumbai 11/26

    Kalidas Says……Friday, 26 November, 2010
    Built up properties will suffer most followed by Row houses followed by independent Homes followed by vacant land in that order.

    Bombay will be hit worst, followed by Delhi, Chennai, Ahmedabad and last will be Bangalore. Farm properties will improve due to price rise in farm products.

    You do not have to worry. Sleep well. It may be hurt in finding the buyer but value wise, it will have least impact.

  56. Sir

    You have been criticising USA for the last 3 years since i have been reading you. Infact you said that day is not far off when there will be civil war and riots in USA.

    Yet you have decided to settle down in USA?

    If you dont mind can you tell me under what visa you will be staying permanently? Have you managed to get green card.

    i wish you all the best in life.

    princeofindia
    Abu Dhabi

    Kalidas Says….Friday, 26 November, 2010
    My children and grand children live there. Both of my son and daughter are now US Citizens. We have been away from them for over 18 years, so they have been insistent that we now live there permanently.

    We will get Green card. It will be dependent visa. We in fact do not need visa to visit there and live for 6 months or more because we (me and my wife) are full British Citizens. We are exempt from visa requirements.

  57. Hello Sir,
    First of all, thanks for all your time you give to reader’s queries in CMCA. I fully support your decision to discontinue as it is taking too much of your time.
    Secondly, I am currently invested about 20-25% of my portfolio in IOC and HPCL. Does it make sense to invest another 5% in SATYAM at current price?
    Regards,
    Pawan,
    Delhi, India

    Kalidas Says….Friday, 26 November, 2010
    Yes, but limit it to just 3%. When the stock starts getting positive press, add more at whatever the price at that time.

  58. Sir

    Give you opinion about the Hindustan construction CMP 40.

    The stock is hammering due to the following
    Lavasa under CBI scanner
    ENv. Minister notice to the Lavasa
    Lavasa is one of the subsidiary.
    The company in the business for longtime.

    Whether sharp fall may be used for buying

    R.Yuvaraj
    Chennai

    Kalidas Says….Friday, 26 November, 2010
    Yes, it is a trading buy,. We do not know the extent of damage however. Buy in two stages – one now and another in fall. Do not buy too much. It is still speculative situation. I normally do not venture into such tainted stocks but this is purely trading suggestion – no investment consideration at all.

  59. ANNOUNCEMENT

     

    Readers may note that the popular column “Confused Mind Clear Answers ” will have only one more month to continue. This column will be discontinued from January 2011.

     

    I will focus more on Articles and Reader’s Queries on specific articles will be replied  there. No other queries will be entertained anywhere.

     

    I am forced to take this decision due to enormous time demand from readers in Confused Mind Clean Answers section. I really have not time, and I have to sacrifice many of my personal chores behind.

     

    Thanks for your support at all times. Please note that this decision is irreversible. Kindly do not post any query requesting for continuing this column. It is simply not possible.

     

    My Articles will be more specific as always. I will also revive Stock Observatory column from January 2011

     

    Anil Selarka (Kalidas)

    26/11/2010

  60. Hello,
    hope you are fine, I read your blog often, I found in a post by you that “This is time to raise cash, not to invest”  and Sensex may  correct  up to 14000,I have 3750 SAIL @ 200 and 6000 Satyam @98 ,so here I am little bit confused , should I just hold this for long (2 years) or should I sell all  the stocks and just keep the money to invest at lower levels? Please advice.
    Somnath Bhattacharjee
    Kolkata
    WestBengal
    India

    Kalidas Says…..Friday, 26 November, 2010

    I had originally mentioned to sell 95% of the stocks between 7/10 and 15/10. The market did fall exactly during this period but then recovered. many were questioning me indirectly why was I negative when the growth story of India was intact. I also mentioned that Growth can not place place when the weeds of corruption was around, same way a healthy plant suffers if the weeds around it are not removed.

    You ahould not have taken very large position in Satyam even if the prospects were good. How many times have I informed the readers that no one should invest more than 5% of his investible budget in one scrip. Still, the readers want to become millionaire overnight and make vital errors.

    The events have unfolded exactly as I have mentioned, and many of the Readers favorite are down 20% to 30% when the market is down by 10%. Often Readers talk about the market and take the position in non index stocks, and when they get hurt, they question Why such stocks have gone down so much?

    In your case, both stocks are good, however, your losses in SAIL is relatively less. Sell about 750 of SAIL and buy about 2000 of Satyam at about 61 or about. This will help you average down the stocks without investing new funds.

  61. M Satyam

    Sir,

    How will the shareholder of MSatyam be impacted if Satyam merges into TM instead of your belief that MS stays and TM merges into MSatyam ? I understand that you are nonchalant whosoever merges which ever way – it will not make a difference. How will it Not make a difference ??

    Further, sometime back (recently) when MSatyam was around 81 – you said buy with both your hands to a reader. And I just did that. I have had a little disaster earlier with RNRL. Now with MSatyam I am in the middle of another one. Pls guide. What are the practical risks here.

    Regards
    Mehr
    26 Non 2010, Singapore

    Kalidas Says………26 November, 2010
    You have to realize that I am not GOD. I can not foresee the scandals running into thousands of crores and levels of corruption in India. How could I foresee, including you, that CEO of LICHF and even Bank of India would be taking bribes? This is not science where 1 + 1 = 2 could be worked out.

    Yes, I did mention that considering level of corruption in India, the growth could not be as high as envisaged. In fact, many of the numbers are stage managed.

    Further, my view on Satyam remain same. It was amply borne out by the quarterly numbers when they reported profits for two consecutive quarters for the first time after a few years of losses in the past due to frauds.

    When you invest in fraud tainted company, there are always associated risks. Even if you buy LICHF at about 30% cheaper, there is no guarantee that it will not go down further, if there are further disclosures from CBI

    Even today, I am super bullish on Satyam, the way I read the numbers. I do not consider what the other analysts say. When you read me, you must also read others and listen to CNBC or Bloomberg and make your own decision.

    When the market tanks due to bribery scandals, the associated stocks go down most, and even good stocks suffer because of margin calls that usually get executed at about 11:00 AM India Time.

    If you think that Satyam could be another RNRL, get out of it and forget Kalidas for good. please note that even best of blue chips have gone down with the market, not only Satyam. It is a general event and not Satyam specific. Better learn to take risk rather than blame others. I do not take credits or debits from reader’s actions.

  62. Dear Anilji,
    i) I have the following in my portfolio
    Name         No.ofshares       CostPrice                 MktPrice
    CAIRN 100                  334                       309
    IOC 175                  404                       341
    HPCL 60                  500                       403
    MRPL 400                   83                         69
    SATYAM 1000                  85                         61
     
    I have another 2 lakhs to invest.How should I spread that out?Is it the right time or should I wait some more time?
    ii)Ashtavinayak is stumbling down like you said,speculation wont last.Is it advisable to acquire it,if it goes below 15?
    Warm Regards,
    RavikumarPandian
    Chennai,India

    Kalidas Says………26 November, 2010
    BUY more of IOC – about 100 shrs
    BUY more of HPCL – about 50 shrs
    Buy more of MRPL – 300 shrs at 61 or about, not now
    Do nothing for others. If Satyam falls further, buy only 500 more if below Rs 60
     
    ASHTAVINAK: It will not go down to Rs 15 because it is raking in money in latest releases Golmaal 3 and Robots. This is no time to get into such speculative stocks. Stay with the dependable major stocks as above and if at all, buy LICHF if it goes near 835 or so and Reliance if it falls further.

  63. Dear Sir
    I have across your website while searching about stocks.  Your messages and articles are really impressive. Please continue you good work.
    What is our opinion about investing in SAIL? Can you please suggest  the entry level price.
    Please also suggest some stocks (other than OMC) to watch so as to enter when valuation get better.
     
    Thanks
    John
    Abu Dhabi

    Kalidas Says………..Friday, 26 November, 2010
    BUY it below 170, preferably around 158 to 163 level in short term.

    If FPO does not materialize due to poor market, the best entry level to buy will be 121 or about.

    Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) may be another good stock to own in future. However, it being an index stock, buy it without asking question when the market tanks steeply. My BUY Target is of course is 810 or about but I doubt whether it will go that low.

    There are no other stocks that I focus on except OMC. Other assets are Gold, Silver and Agro land. Also some Sugar stocks (I am not so specific about names because I have not followed this sector closely).

  64. Dear Kalidasji,
    I shall appreciate if you kindly give your opinion on
    * scope of solar energy in India
    * photo -voltic industry in India
    thanls
    surendra
    Jaipur India
    email skumar15@yahoo.com

    Kalidas Says………..Friday, 26 November, 2010
    Not so good. This sector is still in preliminary stage and cost is quite high. However, those engaged in public street lighting will benefit more. Residential use is still cost prohibitive.

    I went to Amravati recently and went to shop Jain Irrigation owned Solar powered water heaters which I found extremely expensive (over Rs 24000 or more), so dropped the idea when the alternate machines cost less than Rs 2300 to Rs 3500 (LP Gas fired water heaters)

    Still it is a sector to watch. In advanced countries like USA where my own daughter installed Solar System, her capital outlay was NIL. What they need to pay is for the monthly bill which is almost 1/3rd of regular electricity bill. Such strategy works but in India, it will take a long time before anyone installs Solar unit free of cost. As such, the success is rather limited.

  65. Dear Kalidasji,
     
    I am a silent blogger for your site. I think this is the first time, I post a query.
     
    I bought satyam at rs.100, but it has come to rs.61 .. no problem as u said a target of 160+ in 12 months… but I doubt ur views can only be achieved if TM merge into MS.
    If Ms merge into TM.. then is it the worse for MS shareholders…
     
    Thanks
    Lalitha
    Chennai
    25.11.10

    Kalidas Says………..Friday, 26 November, 2010
    Satyam is falling because of poor market. Almost every leading stock is down. If you are getting Satyam at Rs 61, just buy it and keep it. By the time next April arrives, you will have made over 100% profit on latest purchase.

    Forget womenish talk – who buys whom and what happens in neighbour’s home. It merely wastes your time.

  66. Dear sir ,
    The salary is 12 Lakh Per Annum . That gives me 66000 of take home post deductions of tax , PF and health insurance premium. I have 30000 as EMI for housing loan and the house hold expenses do not exceed 15000 . I don’t own any 4 wheeler as yet .
    What i wanted to know is the amount of savings that should be spent on renovation .Also many times the details of recession that is going to come affects the aggression of  my financial decision . Knowing a little more than average person , turned out tougher than i though , was hoping to know from you , how handle it and carry on normally .
    Sachin , Pune , India

    Kalidas Says………..Friday, 26 November, 2010
    Buy real assets first. If you do not own 4 wheeler (car), but own two wheeler, it is fine. In Pune, you can afford to buy 4 wheeler in used condition for a budget of Rs 120,000 to Rs 160,000; Even I bought recently Hyundai Accent for Rs 160,000 for use by my relatives ( I do not live here permanently) which was in excellent shape.

    In cities like Pune, Two wheelers are more useful and important than 4 wheelers. In next 8 months, the prices of Four wheelers may drop by 6% to 10% but it does not matter.

    yes, house renovation is more important than a car if you already own two wheeler. Better make your home worth living by redecorating properly with most functional utilities. It will go a long way. Car can be bought at any time within 3 days, not homes.

  67. Dear sir ,
    I have bought a resale 2BHK flat at center of pune for 3.5 times my yearly income via housing loan amounting to 85% of the price @ 9.25 % fixed for 5 years (out of total 20 years tenure) from LICHLF . Post that  i have following amount with me .
    0.6 times annual salary   in savings as short term FDs .
    0.35 times annual salary  in gold and silver ( original investment was of 2 lakh  )
    0.1 times annual salary   in stocks ( 80% of which is OMC and 20 % sataym ) .
    I wanted to ask you following question .
    1. Till what amount can i put into beautification type renovation of the flat , which other wise is in sound condition .
    2. Should I be putting more money into gold or does this level of cash is perfect .
    3. I work in IT for past 8 years,my present company is conservative with layoffs and is debt free  but i was thinking of job change for increasing my income . Looking your economic forecast would it be prudent to join another MNC or should one not make aggressive career moves till the situation becomes clear in next 1-2 years .
    4. Any chance of meeting you at pune , before you move to US
    sachin , pune , india.

    Kalidas says……Friday, 26 November, 2010

    You write every investment as X times your annual salary without mentioning annual salary itself. Please write your take home pay and also deduct normal house hold expenses to arrive at the disposable cash for investment.

    STAY long on your Gold and Silver investment. Think of selling them only after another 100% rise in Gold and 90% in Silver.

    Living in nice decorated apartment or home is another type of investment. Nice places give equally nicer thoughts – no other investment can give such return. Healthy mind leads to healthy thoughts and wealthy ideas later on. I am also renovating my own apartment in Amravati which was bought at bargain basement price.

    It is always wiser move to jump the jobs between the age of 26 to 39 if you get decent rise or jump in salary. Limit your debt until such time. When you are in job stable condition, not wanting further change, then only contract more debt for any purpose.

    No trip to Pune is planned at the moment. When we meet almost on daily basis over here, why do you want to meet me in person?

  68. Can I swap GE Shipping for HPCL and IOC?

    Dear Kalidas,

    I am holding 4000 GE Shipping (CMP 365). Will it be a good idea to swap it for OMCs i.e.Hindustan Petroleum, BPCL and IOC?

    Further, Can you please elaborate your views on India entering into recession in next 6 to 8 months’ time?

    You have stated that you are expecting Sensex down to 14000? What is your time frame? And what sort of fall do you expect in OMCs at Sensex being at 14000 level?

    Rajesh Agrawal
    New Delhi, India
    25th November 2010

    Kalidas Says……….Friday, 26 November, 2010
    GE Shipping is a very good stock to own, but compared to its potential, OMC is better choice in 3 years horizon.

    SELL GE Shipping 2000 and Switch to IOC 2000 or buy 1000 IOC and HPCL 800 or about.

    When the market falls, too severely and with too many scandals breaking out, there is no time frame. I did give a SELL call to sell 95% of stocks between 7 and 15 October. By reflection, it has saved lot of profits in many counters and avoided losses too.

    With builders running out of funds, the property markets will suffer severely and many builders will begin to run away. This was anticipated by me, and that was the main reason for recommending buying homes in ready condition rather than under construction.

  69. Sir
    i admire that you have disclosed that  only 3.0 lakhs have been currently invested out of 1,5 Crores cash. It means you are basically awaiting Sensex to fall up to 14000 before buying scrips in the market.
    Do you still believe Sensex would touch around 10000 in second leg of fall as market has made double TOP recently ?
    Regards
    arun
    Mumbai,India

    Kalidas Says……….Friday, 26 November, 2010
    You have misinterpreted me. I am not going to increase my exposure to Indian market except in OMC whatever be the level of SENSEX.

    SENSEX at 10,000 is possible if the DOW corrects to 8000 or below. The worse scenario for SENSEX is 12000 or about. Please note that I do not want to predict where the SENSEX will go, I am more stock specific.

  70. Dear kalidas sir, shares of omc are falling like nail pin, is it a opportunity to buy or is there is anything which is not known to common man. waiting for your reply. I am holding 1000 shares of IOC bought at 365/-
    Regards
    Ravi, chennai, india

    Kalidas Says……….Friday, 26 November, 2010
    Yes, when the opportunities knock at your door, you take them without asking further questions. The OMC are in accumulation stage even if they are up 50% from current level.

    BUY more of HPCL at CMP and accumulate.

  71. Dear Anilji,

    I am asking this after very long time although I daily visit your blog , Sir I am having Asian Paints Ltd  310 shares @ 1500 and CMP is 2520 , should I sell all and hold cash or shift to IOC / HPCL / MRPL. I am also having Satyam 2000 @ 76 bought in recent correction only.

    Regards,
    Raj V,
    Ghatkopar,Mumbai,India.

    Kalidas Says…Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    Sell all and spend 33% in buying IOC, HPCL only. Wait for more time for MRPL. Others okay.

  72. Dear Sir,
    Few days ago i had asked your advice for taking 3L loan @14% interest and buying IOC (50%) and rest of the money Ruchi infra, Zee news. I am thinking of paying the EMIs by selling equal proportions of the shares. Some EMI i will pay from my pocket.
    You had advised me that it is not the right time.
    Now, Is it the right time to take loan and buy the shares.
    Please advice
    Shaan
    Eindhoven
    The Netherlands

    Kalidas Says…Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    You may buy first instalment of Rs 1 Lakh. Buy 200 IOC and spend rest on Zee News

  73. Sir,

    I have Cairn India 100  at 342, CMP is Rs 312/
     and South Indian Bank 500 at 30 ,CMP is 25/-.

    Please advice should i sell or shift to some other OMC shares.

    Regds
    Sameer
    Pune

    Kalidas Says…Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    Do nothing, except buy some Cairns India more.

  74. C$ and US $

    Dear Kalidasji,

    Earlier you had advised to hold onto the US$ and C$ , and not to convert into INR for the time being.
    Is it time to convert the dollars(C$ and US$) into INR
    What levels are you looking at and also the time frame.

    I am holding around 10-12 K each of US$ and C$.

    Thanks

    Rahul Bondre
    Mumbai India
    Nov 25th 2010

    Kalidas Says……….Friday, 26 November, 2010
    Hold your current position as they are. I can not give you level now because the situation in India is too uncertain, so also Europe

  75. Dear Sir,

    I am having the following holdings for a long time. please advise on what to do
                   No    Puch Price   Current Rate
    RCOM     6500     278             142
    Satyam   13000     94               64
    RPower     9000     175            168
    IOC          1000     380            370
    Unitech     7000     118              64
    GMR Infra 2000     100              48

    Regds

    Neha Gupta

    Kalidas Says……….Friday, 26 November, 2010
    SELL RCOM 1000 @ 142 and BUY Satyam 2000 @ 64
    SELL RPOWER 3000 @ 168 and BUY HPCL 1000 @ 430 or about
    BUY GMR Infra 2000 @ 48 or about from above surplus. SELL more RPOWER if needed to buy GMR Infra
    SELL RPOWER 1500 @ 164 and BUY MRPL 3000 @ 71 or about
    SELL

    Please note that by switching to GMR Infra I am not recommending this scrip. I am merely readjusting your portfolio by selling stock with least losses into stocks having steep losses.

  76. Dear Anil Jee,
    In my recent query yesterday, i mentioned the scrip name wrongly as as Titan Industries whereas i actually brought 200 Shares of TTK Prestige@1728 (CMP 1435).Please advise on TTK Prestige…do i hold it ?Sorry for the confusion.
     
    Regards,
    Anjana

    Kalidas Says…Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    It is expensive relative to market. It is a good stock with good management, but it is just expensive.

  77. Dear Sir,
    Sorry for the grammatical error,I meant to say that I have mailed the details of the transaction to your email id and have not received any reply so far.
    Also kindly suggest your active email id where i can expect more prompt response to my queries which can be little personal.
    Best Regards.
     

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    Use same email ID

  78. Dear Sir,
    I have purchased your book through your website on 10th November but am still to receive it.I have been mailed the details to your email id readers.kalidas@gmail.com atleast twice.Kindly help me out.

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    Sorry for missing you. I was travelling and could not access my emails through my regular program. I will check it out and have it mailed within 2 days.

  79. Respected Kalidas,

    LICHF is down by 20% ( Due to raid by the CBI), I brought 1000 shares of LICHF @1150 for 1 year target. Now it is available @1070 and it may come down to 980 tomorrow.is it a good buy now? please through some light on this counter.

    Raj(Wipro)
    25/11/2101;12:13PM, Melbourne , Australia

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    I am still not in favour of this counter, although it is attractive after sale off sharply yesterday.

    I had originally recommended stocks at around Rs 180 with target of Rs 1500. It has been achieved. It is no longer a gem for me. With interest rates rising, property market slowing and frauds galore, it is not right time to enter the stock except for strict stop loss point. I have mentioned earlier that this time around, the market will fall off so sharply (property) that it will take another 12 years to recover. This is why I came to India to sell of my all high flying properties. I finished my task.

    LICHF is a noble institution. If its CEO is corrupt, so what? It is still an investment stock of high rating, but my view against stock was based on current trend in interest rates and poor sentiments in property market. Those who loved this stock may follow it more closely and buy it when around 800 level Use 835 and 885 level to enter for trading

    I strongly believe that more than 300% can be made in buying IOC, HPCL, BPCL, OIL India, MRPL than buying LICHF even after recent sale off.

  80. Dear Sir
    Considering the bribary scam across LIC Housing finance, I feel it is an opportunity to enter this Gem. Please advice on what price range is safe to start accumulating this scrip. ?
    Shiva
    Bangalore
    India

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    It is a trading buy of course due to its popularity but it is no longer gem. It is dusting. Shine is coming on to OMC – so focus there. You already made money in this stock before, If you re-enter you will lose what you made earlier. Trust IOC and HPCL more than this counter. Its skin is shown as rotten, the core inside is still roting.

  81. Dear Sir,
    I have 3lacs in cash and i want to invest in Satyam HPCL and IOC.
    Planning to take 1000,200 and 250 shares accordingly,need your valuable suggestion  on this is the right time to take all above 3 stocks or should i wait for market correction.
    Its a longterm investing at least for 2yrs planned out.
    Regards,
    Rahul(Mumbai)
    India,

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    Yes you can. correction or no correction. The price is just about right.

  82. Hi Sir
    Do you think the current scam will give us an opportunity to pick up LICHF once again at attractive rates? Is this an organization worth investing after scam?
    Regards
    Ramandeep Singh

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    It is trading buy only. Try your luck. For me, it is no longer attractive as before.

  83. Dear Anil ji,

    Market has come down to 19450 (approx 1700 points from top) and with LIC hsg fin news, 2G scam, etc around I am sure it is about to collapse. Just wanted to offer ‘Sashtang Namaskar’ :)

    Tusi gr8 ho.

    Regards,
    Rahul R R

  84. DEAR SIR,
    Your view on The GAS Sector after the recent correction in Indian Market?
    Can We Buy :-
    NAME                CMP
    GAIL                490
    IGL                320
    PETRONET      116
    GSPL             112

    Should I buy the above Stock for Short to Long term basis.

    Regards
    Sakchi,Delhi,India
    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    They are not cheap enough. Wait for 25% drop or let them come down to 385, 235, 81 and 92 level respectively. For trading purpose, you may take chance after another 5% sale off.

  85. Hi Sir,
    I was always sceptical on your IOC,BPCL,HPCL and MRPL as they were always loss makers and in last some quarters only they got into positives. I am really amazed at the last quarter results for all those companies compared to their recent quarters. All are in tandem with your predictions/calculations unless  they received heavy subsidies  in that quarter for their past losses in trading. It seems they havent received subsidies as they were in profit for recent quarters. If that EPS continues, the prices will be unstoppable. Your clarifications appreciated if I am wrong somewhere as I am aiming to capitalise on your views in this correction.
    Tarun, Dubai, UAE

  86. Hi Sir,
    I am puzzled at the future demand for coal in India for the future when India is already working  to generate nuclear energy. As of now coal is precious but it may not be in that demand in 5 year time? For example natural gas price fell 50% in 2 years due to Shale gas production increase in USA.
     Is that can be a reason for Coal India stake sale by govt?
    It is nice to see all govt companies going public, so accountanability and transperancy will be  more even though the stake sales could have been done much earlier. Your views appreciated on future deman for coal.
    Tarun,Dubai,UAE

  87. Dear Kalidasji,

    What are your  views on the market now given the LIC Housing Finance scam, i am sure all the banks involved in this would be battered , but in the view of this scam would you advice to invest in the PSU banking sector…
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/housing-loan-scam-rocks-lic-hsg-central-bank_501114.html

    Regards,
    Aamir
    Chennai

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    When the market was in high 20000 I had given a sale call being more negative on banking, realty and mining sector. My view has not changed since then.

    More and more losses, in thousands of crores, will hit the banking sector. The banks with more Home loan portfolio will suffer most.

    From Investment angle, LICHF does not qualify for purchase even in 800s. More and more frauds will be reported and as I mentioned earlier that many builders will be running away leaving concrete jungle around.

    At current level after sale off, it is of course a trading buy – but it is a Hit and Run stock. When those bastards at the top eating Rs 250,000 salary plus, are still taking bribes, what can you say of this Gandhian country?

  88. Sir
      I sold my whole stock when mkt 20750, and now I want re enter in the mkt. I have 400000 rs cash. Pl suggest me what can I do? Enter or wait?
    thanks
    Amit gupta
    Ajmer
    India

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    Buy some IOC and HPCL and then wait for the market to go down to 14000 when to enter.

  89. Dear Anil Jee,
    I hold 200 Titan Industries brought just recently @1700/-.
    CMP 1530. Will i get my buy rate in another 6 months or so or do
    i sell it now & book the loss or do i average it. Your advice would
    really be apreciated.
     
    Regards
    Anjana
    Udaipur(Raj)

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    I never want to buy such watchmakers. When the mobile phones contain Clock and Alarm display, who cares for TITAN?

    May be it is a good counter – I do see visitors all the time – but it is not my cup of tea. The market is weak, but the stock may rebound. I do not recommend this stock to any body.

  90. “Do you want to act like Dhutrashtra having 100 kaurava or Pandu having just 5 gems? You learn a lot from Mahabharata.”
    :) … sau sonar ki, ek kalidas ki !
    Sir,
    you had mentioned long back about writing an article/book on mystical numbers – was reminded of that when i saw your reply on buying at 51/61…  – are you planning to write any new articles?. waiting eagerly.
     
    thanks
    Raghav
    Bangalore

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    It requires more than 200 pages to teach my theory. Article is not enough. I will write the book after reaching USA (San Diego) in second week of December. I plan to settle down permanently there.

  91. Dear Sir,
    After reading your blogs,articles, views and comments i am planning to invest (3 lacs)my money in share market with the following stocks. And i have planned for long term 2yrs.
    Amt    Shares   CMP
    IOC         111000 270    360Rs
    HPCL       90000 220     445 Rs
    Satyam    64750 925     69 Rs
    Pls suggest me is my investment is in right direction?
    Thanks.
     
    Regards,
    Rakesh.
    Bangalore.

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    Did not get your numbers right. Are you saying that you own 111,000 shares of IOC? If you are, do nothing. Take a vacation and catch some fished rather than netting some stocks.
     
     

  92. Sir,
    I am all in cash having made about 10% profits. The reason to move to cash was to book losses to lower the tax burden. Having gone all cash, I am wondering if I should buy everything back or what.
    I request your guidance sir. I am 32 and I can hold my stocks for 5-10 years easily. Please excuse me if its a repeated query.
    Regards,
    Pawan,
    Delhi, India

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    I have mentioned number of times that I never count taxes while making investment into stock markets. I just rely on net return after taxes.

    I do not know what you held ealier but yes, you may buy IOC, HPCL, BPCL and MRPL. I do not see bargains in other counters.
     

  93. Dear Sir,
    Your View on the Upcoming IPO of MANGANESE ORE(MOIL)
    The Price Band is 340-375.
    Is it Worth Applying.

    Regards
    Basant,Delhi,India

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    I never invest in IPO. So I really have no opinion except that it is a trading buy for the moment.

  94. Dear Anil,
    I know this blog is strictly for finance discussion only. But from so many months I (am sure lot of boarders too) are so used to reading your blog everyday that you have become like part of life :) I would also like to read something more about you your views on various issues. May be some other section in your blog you can have for that. Just a thought.
    Coming to markets. As you expected there’s sharp correction in the markets. Wanted to know your views on how much more correction are you expecting? Post correction do you expect V shape recovery?
    Regards,
    Niranjan Shetty, Doha, Qatar
    November 24th 2010

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    The present correction is politically motivated than economically motivated. I mentioned earlier in this column that growth does not sustain when weeds like corruption around, same way that healthy plant does not grow when the weeds like grass is around.

    When the market become overpriced, it always try to find a reason to go down. When economic fundamentals are concealed, the market finds scape goat in the form of social issues. Corruption is one. When the highest executive of the land Prime Minister does not come out with even single statement condemning the wrong doings by some of the players sitting just a few blocks away, what do you call him. Manmohan Singh is acting like a eunuch and simple has no balls to call a spade a spade. He has placed the nation on “auto pilot” which is now facing “turbulence” in the sky with main pilot announcing to tighten the belt.

    I am sitting over cash for over 2 months. The only stock I will buy now is adding the position to IOC, HPCL at current level. Other stocks are too pricey for investment purpose.

  95. Dear Sir,

    My present portfolio includes Satyam 6000 @ Rs. 99 CMP 69, Cairn India 500 @ Rs. 355 CMP 320, HPCL 1000 @ 460 CMP 441.
    All togather around 12.5 invested with notional loss of 2.15 lacs OR – 18%. 

    I also have 12  lacs cash for futher investment, Do i need to average down any of above stocks mainly Satyam? OR What course of investment shall i make with available amount?

    Investment horizon – 1.5 – 2 years.

    Thanks,

    Sneshan,
    Rajkot-India

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    It is never good idea to have very large position in one stock especially when the stock is trading at higher level. Nothing wrong with holding Satyam 6000 but I have self Imposed discipline not to invest more than Rs 5 lakhs in any single stock. of course, the limit differs from person to person.

    Since your price difference in Satyam is quite large, be prepared to buy another 2000 when the stock is between 59 to 63 level. I have reduced the buying entry level for simple reason of tainted market and negative publicity of Satyam counter in press. Do not buy more than that.

    CAIRNS may have more downside. It is quite likely that the takeover by Vedanta will be called off soon – wait for about 30 days at the most.

    Focus on IOC and HPCL and MRPL for the time being. I do not see any other bargains. Even LICHF is not on my buy list after recent correction ( it is a trading buy of course). I have mentioned more than 2 months ago that I was severely negative on Housing, Realty, Property market, and Mining stocks. India is well poised to enter into recession in 6 to 8 months.

    There are no more bargains even after recent sale off. The market has to come down more sharply than before, so wait like a Cairn and become a bug bhagat.

  96. Kalidasji,
    I am disappointed with your Media Shy Attribute.   Good things has to promoted, that is my wish.
    Anyway,  Yuan begins trading against the Rouble.  Your views on this..
    __http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-11/23/content_11594595.htm
    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    Agreed but the old habits die hard. I was a loner for 25 years, and has been accustomed to it. After reaching USA, I plan to reform myself and become more social and media conscious than what I already am. Give me some time.

  97. ORGANIC FOODS
    Sir

    Kindly advise a few listed companies in India growing/dealing with organic foods.
    regards

    arun
    Mumbai ,India

    Kalidas Says….Thursday, 25 November, 2010
    It would be a good selection. However, the Organic food sector is not so organized. and the buyers are mainly from upper middle class (educated one). Even most of rich people are traditional people who are more value oriented than health oriented. Just walk down the road, and you will find No. 8 type people – man and woman – strolling around. (me included)

    And really, most of the food in India is organic. The farmers still use cow dung as main fertilizer. I do not find much difference between labelled organic food and non labelled food available in kirana stores.

    However, there are few gems in Agro product sector. I will make some research and come back. This sector is still trading low. One of the stock is REI agro

  98. Dear Sir,

    I had purchased IOC after reading your article on OMC just few months back but at present my profit in IOC has been wiped out. Should we buy IOC now @ 366, what could be the FPO price? Plz share your view so that we can accumulate IOC at this level before it starts its upward journey.

    Kaushik
    Bangalore

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    This is what happens when a person trades or has trading instinct. You have seen higher level when the performance was not even rosy. Now that the market has corrected, and the speculation is rife whether the FPO wouild be Rs 450 or Rs 350 or just that the FPO is withdrawn? (which is more likely)

    So when that uncertaintly ends, the stock would recover. It is certainly a very good time to pick up IOC. I do not care loss of profit on short term. When you want to gain 500% you leave something on the table in shorter range.

    When the GEMS are wrapped around in Rags, you look at the gems not at the rags. I was asked similar question when I was recommending gold at abourt $ 800 to $ 1235 and Silver at about $ 16 level – why the gold is falling. None of those questions come now, because those guys never bought gold or silver because they were falling.

    All like to worship the rising sun. However, Saints and Investors wake up early at about 4:15 AM and prepare for the day early. They rise even before the Sun rises in the east.

    Yes, BUY MORE even if the market sentiment is weak.

  99. Dear Sir,
    Are you expecting market correction or market crash. I’m still in wait n watch mode. I have Rs 2L cash. Is it right time to invest in the stock you recommended?
    Best Regards
    Shaan
    Eindhoven
    The NetherlandsKalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    Invest 40% in IMC right now. IOC, HPCL, MRPL and BPCL in tha order.

  100. Hello Sir,
    Why is IOC tanking so much inspite of its stupendous results. The other OMCs like HPCL, BPCL are not gone that much down. Kindly share your views on it.
    Thanks and Regards,
    Sanman,
    Goregaon. Mumbai
    Date of Posting: 23rd Novmeber 2010 Time 4:45 pm IST

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    When comes a time to pick up golden nuggests when some one else is distributing it, I do not ask questions, I just collect them.

    IOC is underperforming because it is close to FPO, not other stocks. The stocks usually are underpinned during the period of any uncertainty. So did the IOC. What was the song in 3 Idiots – ALL IS WELL

  101. Dear Kalidasji,
    I am 62 yrs. old person and have portfolio worth 30 lac. my broker told me to hold it as india is shining story and we will get ever high in indian index. now from diwali markt start correcting. pls suggest what should i do ? my portfolio is with 62 scripts. now should i sell it or hold the stock..up to what level indian market will correct. pls suggest.
    Regards,
    Ramesh shah
    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    We share age – 62. You have 62 stocks? Are you buying one new stock on your each birthday? One should not have more than 12 stocks in bull market and 20 in bear markets.

    Whittle down your list to just 20 stocks. Do you want to act like Dhutrashtra having 100 kaurava or Pandu having just 5 gems? You learn a lot from Mahabharata.

    Raise more cash whenever you are in good money and chose not to invest. Although we both share same age, I have brought down my portfolio of over Rs 1.5 crores to just Rs 3 Lakhs now,. This is time to raise cash, not to invest. When you say you have portfolio of Rs 30 lakhs spread in 62 stocks, I bet nearly 80% are losers.

  102. Subject: UCO Bank re-enter levels

    Kalidasji,
    As per your guidance, I booked profits in UCO bank from 90 to 120 levels. Bought at around 56. At present it looks very strong as you predicted and shows no sign of correction. Do you think I can re-enter at current levels and if not can you suggest tentative levels I can watch out for?

    As always, appreciate your advise.

    Regards,
    Sumit Gupta
    Bangalore (India)
    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    I am on sideline. I am negative on banking stocks. Even if I have to make choices between Bhoot and Palit, I would prefer IDBI Bank than any other banking stock.

  103. Dear sir,

    What is your opinion on Infy and Wipro for long term. I predict Infy will be coming out with handsome bonus sometime next year to mark the exit of NRN.

    Regards
    Anil (Bangalore)
    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    Both are good companies but TCS is better and cheaper than them. If Kamath joins Infy at the instance of Narayan Moorthy, INFY would be destroyed the way he did ICICI.

  104. Sir,

    This telecom scandal is getting murkier by the day. Here is an interesting link to all the tapes published by the Outlook magazine. Kindly go through all the conservations of Niira Radia and of course, waiting for your comments.

    http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?268071

    Regards,

    Hem

    Mumbai

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    No need for any comments.

  105. Dear Sir.

    Market corrected by almost  400 points but both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers in cash market on Friday. The question that puzzles me is who sold and caused this decline? Who are bigger market actors than these two categories !!

    http://www.bseindia.com/mktlive/market_summ/categorywise_turnover.asp

    Regards
    NSri, Pune

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    Don’t waste your time on such trivalities. Focus on what you should do rather than peeping into neighbor’s doors what they are doing. Investment is highly a personal matter, not to be compared with the outsiders.

    How many times you compared your children and life partner with those of neighbours or other colleagues. NEVER. And it was right thing to do. So is also personal investment.

    You do not eat sweets only because the next door neighbour does so. Similarly, you do not cry if some one dies in some one else’s home.

    NEVER EVER divert your attention from your focussed interest. This is a key to success. If at all you want to divert your attention, better go for a multiplex movie with your family.

  106. Kalidasji,
    Max Keiser supports and argues Mr. Kalidasji “Views and Thoughts”.
    Here it is ” All numerator, no denominator  It’s great to see people are railing against fractional reserve banking but they are a bit behind the curve. Starting with the roll out of a new generation of financially engineered risk management products on Wall St. and around the world in the 1980′s and accelerating in complexity and non-transparency ever since we are now faced with a ‘fraction-less’ banking system. In other words, there is no denominator at all. Banks, for all intents and purposes have no reserves whatsoever, just a theoretical algorithmic representation of a reserve under certain circumstances.

    All loans made today by all banks are done so without any reserves whatsoever to back up those loans. Another word for this is counterfeiting. Americans and people around the world are being imprisoned by theoretical constructs of a monetary system held together with chutzpah and questionable arithmatic. Break the chains of this imprisonment. Crash JP Morgan Buy Silver.
    __http://maxkeiser.com/2010/11/20/all-numerator-no-demonintor/
    He appears on Russia Today TV twice in a week(Tuesday & Thursday).
    I would like to see you on Alternate Media soon if not on the Main Media.
    I expect your (Kalidasji) Videos on Youtube soon. We want to hear your voice..
    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    I am not Media man. I shy publicity. I am more of one to one man than one to thousands of people. You would never see me on YOU TUBE VIDEO or any TV media for years to come.

  107. Dear kalidas ji,
    cKindly share your view about NHPC for investment purpose cmp 29.10 if possible do share the possible targets also.
     
    Regards
    Mohit (Punjab) India

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    What is NHPC? It is a power utility company? Write full name of the stock for lesser known symbols.

  108.  
    India’s top 20 companies
    Source: http://business.rediff.com/slide-show/2010/nov/04/slide-show-1-indias-top-20-companies.htm
    Another reason to buy IOC, MRPL as IOC is largest Indian company in terms of turn over and is having less market cap.
    Turnover: Rs 2,57,559.91 cr (Rs 2.57 trillion)
    Profit: Rs 10,713.19 cr (Rs 107.13 billion)
    M-cap: Rs 1,04,335.37 cr (Rs 1.04 trillion)
    Reliance has the following:
    Turnover: Rs 2,14,532 cr (Rs 2145.32 billion)
    Profit: Rs 15,898 cr (Rs 158.98 billion)
    M-cap: Rs 3,22, 991 cr (Rs 3.22 trillion)
    BPCL:
    Turnover: Rs 1,26,181.92 cr (Rs 1.26 trillion)
    Profit: Rs 1,632.36 cr (Rs 16.32 billion)
    M-cap: Rs 27,885.41 cr (Rs 278.85 billion)
    HPCL:
    Turnover: Rs 1,13,304.34 cr (Rs 1.13 trillion)
    Profit: Rs 1,475.29 cr (Rs 14.75 trillion)
    M-cap: Rs 18,031.75 cr (Rs 180.31 billion)
    ONGC:
    Turnover: Rs 1,07,065.85 cr (Rs 1.07 trillion)
    Profit: Rs 19,403.53 cr (Rs 194.03 billion)
    M-cap: Rs 2,97,257.10 cr (Rs 2.97 trillion)
    NTPC:
    Turnover: Rs 51,203.35 cr (Rs 512.03 billion)
    Profit: Rs 8,837.65 cr (Rs 88.37 billion)
    M-cap: Rs 1,69,726.91 cr (Rs 1697.26 trillion)
    MRPL:
    Turnover: Rs 32,568.08 cr (Rs 325.68 billion)
    Profit: Rs 1,112.38 cr (Rs 11.12 billion)
    M-cap: Rs 13,709.77 cr (Rs 137.09 billion)
    Regards,
    Ojal Suthar, Rajasthan, INDIA
    20 Nov, 2010 @ 01:44 PM

  109. Sir,
    Based on your article, future projected price of HPCL / IOCL / BPCL / MRPL are 5400 / 5400 / 3000 / 360. Based on CMP of these stocks (444.6 / 711.6 / 392.6 / 74.25), HPCL seems to be the best stock to invest with 1100% profit compared to the next best competitors (IOCL and BPCL which yields 650% profit). Since there is a huge gap in the profit potentials, between HPCL and others OMC’s, does it make sense to concentrate only on HPCL for accumulation for the time being ?
     
    Do you see any compelling reasons to diversify funds to other OMC’s other than the general thumb rule not to put all eggs in one basket  ?
    Thanks
    Bobby, Singapore

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    I think you asked me this question before and I replied convincingly.

    Only IOC followed by BPCL would qualify for inclusion into BSE/NSE index. I have also informed that IOC is the company that will become No.1 company in India, outpacing even ONGC and Reliance in private sector. When they assume such position, it will develop Index Premium because all Index tracking funds will have to buy this stock to perform in synch with the index. BPCL is the next one but it will not replace or outpace ONGC or even RIL. Only SAIL is the other candidate that will qualify for higher weightage in Index when it is included.

    Only EPS or PE is not enough for buying large cap stocks. You have to understand how the Mutual Funds and Pension Funds from USA invest into companies, and then orient your strategies of investment accordingly.

  110. Respected Sir

    I have 500 shares @ 18.00 of PochiRaju Industries from last one year. Company is in profits, according to my views everything is good except not paying any dividend.
     Here is the link for qrt result
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/financials/pochirajuindustries/results/quarterly-results/PI34

    Would u please give a few mints to its balance sheet/results and enlighten us about its future prospect and inner strength.
    Kuldeep, Punjab

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    It is too small company to spend time on. I normally look at the companies having turnover of Rs 500 crores or more. The company in question does not have turnover of even Rs 12 crores per quarter.

    One point, dividend payment is not criteria for investment. Only Mature companies pay dividend, just as only mature cows and buffaloes deliver milk. Growing calves do not deliver milk. Similarly, growing companies do not pay pay dividends.
    I am sorry, unable to guide you.

  111. Sir,
    Still how many points correction in Nifty you are expecting? Is it good time to enter or we have to wait for sub 5000 levels? I have 4000 satyam @84, shall I buy more to average them. I didn’t follow your earlier advices on blog but watched carefully, I gained in IFCI and Spice jet a little as late entry and early out. But your calls gave 80-90% returns on them. So now I am concentrating to work out on Satyam and buying in huge quantity. I hope I am doing right and with confidence I am investing. If I can see good profits in 4 months I will be happy.
    Thanks and Regards,
    Krishna,
    Hyderabad

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    Satyam is not a stock to be bought in huge quantity. It is tained stocks and it will take more than 2000 RIN to wash them clean.

    If the stock of Satyam is going to work, it is going to work even if your cost is Rs 120. Personally speaking, I have not seen anything negative EXCEPT the possible intention of TM to wiggle out of take over. No company would dilly dally in taking over as did by TM.

    DO NOT increase your exposure of Satyam for the time being. Wait for one more quarterly numbers to come out when the things will be much clearer. At the moment, I would just stay put. Doing Nothing will help at the moment because it is too late to sell and too early to buy more.

  112. sir,
    The mist has cleared and thanx. Now i showed a little haste and the funds that i had generated got gobbled up the last two days and in fact yesterday i had to dig in into my resources as i couldnt resist the temptation to buy more. But what disheartens me is that most of the scrips that i had in my holdings earlier(empee dist, lakshmy electricls, datamatics, st.gobain, noida toll, hm etc) that i sold off posting big losses to buy your recos have not fallen much in comparison to scrips recommended by you.(satyam,hpcl, ioc, ruchi, mrpl etc). also your views, ” a few rs difference does not matter when the prospect of increase is 500%” was at the bottom of my mind while buying the likes of IOC, hpcl and mrpl or else i could have waited with the generated funds.although there is a big difference between the purchase price and the present cost, still i am confident that this time with a little long wait probably my losing streak will be history. I only seek a little reassurance from you. thanks.
    vivard
    kerala
    india.

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    I did not know your stocks nor followed them at any time earlier. If you are so much concerned about the losses booked there and feel that those stocks are stronger in performance than our recommended stocks, then you should reverse your position.

    By resuming your position in old stocks, you do not lose 300% or about. For instance, you had originally bought the stock A at Rs 100 and sold at Rs 61 and are forced to buy back at 65 now, you lose only Rs 4 and not Rs 39 as originally thought.

    I do not compare stocks with revenue of few hundred crores with those of OMVC having Rs 300,000 crores in revenue. If at all, you may keep much lower quantity of OMC stocks than originally bought by you.

    One does not have to make investment if he does not have his mind, patience and brain behind it. Money is not enough. It is the mental strength or weakness that makes or loses money.

  113. Market Crash
    Sir
    Indian Market crashed as you expected. What are your thoughts on where it would end and how long it may go further down.
     
    Regards
    Manjunatha Shetty
    Bangalore India
    Nov 20 2010

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    It has corrected, not crashed. When the market goes down by 800 or more points for two or three days in succession, it may be called the beginning of crash. When the market gained over 6000 points in last 12 months and loses just 1000, it is correction, not crash.

  114. IOC stake sale in first quarter of 2011
    Dear Kalidasji ,

    Sorry for repeating the question, may be I was not able to make things clear in my first attempt, what I wanted to know from the information provided in the link below is that is there a way to find out the FPO price band from the information available i.e raise $ 4.3bn by selling 10% stake , can this info be used to find out how many shares they are planning to sell, which would be equivalent to a 10% stake from the books of account of IOC which may help us to estimate the FPO price band.
    This will help us in analysing other similar offers.Sorry for asking this question as may be my knowledge of accounting is not  good , so if there is a way to find the same from the books of accounts that would really help us out.
    http://www.smartinvestor.in/market/story-49377-storydet-Indian_Oil_hires_6_banks_for_43_bn_share_sale_IFR.htm
    Also wanted to point out that in the current market correction the OMC’s have really borne the brunt , with MRPL correcting from Rs 90 to CMP of Rs 73, and similarly HPCL Rs. 740 , BPCL Rs 710 , IOC Rs 390.

    How much more correction do you expect in the market and correspondingly in the OMC stocks.

    Thanks
    Rahul Bondre
    Mumbai India
    Nov20th 2010

  115. Dear Sir,

    My avg. buying price of SATYAM is near Rs.100, yesterday again I buyed few hundreds @ Rs.73, Should I buy more if it goes upto Rs.65 level?
    Regards

    Kaushik (a silent visitor to this blog on daily basis)
    Bangalore
    India

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    Never buy in mid range. Use the numbers such as 51,71, 81 to make the purchases or sales.

    In your case, your cost is much higher. Buy more in such a way that your average cost does not exceed Rs 80. That is buy more aggressively when the stock enters 60~63 level. No need to buy now. Buying in 70s never help. When the stock breaks the jinx of 80 and goes down, then it may test the level of 61 or even 51 if the trend does not reverse.

    I do not think it may happen in case of Satyam. There is nothing negative about its quareterly numbers the way I read it.

  116. Dear Sir,
    The following stocks are near their 52 week low.
    Should we start accumulating those or wait for some more time for deeper correction.
    Balaji Telefilm – CMP – 45
    MTNL – CMP – 57
    Thanks,
    -Santosh, Bangalore, India

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    Buying at low does not help. When the stock recovers from all time low by 10% at least on stronger volume, then only buy it.

    BALAJI TELE is somewhere mid in the range. Since both market and stock are weak, you can afford to wait till it goes to Rs 41 level.

    MTNL is a long term bet. I would again assign same reasons as above and wait for more correction by about 15% to buy it. I may buy some (just about 500 shres to keep track.

  117. I am planning to invest Rs. 12 Lakhs on monday in IOC, HPCL, BPCL, MRPL, IFCI, Ruchi Infra. will it be fine if i am investing Rs. 2 lakhs in each of the above stock. or should it be some different proportion.
    Sanjay Shah
    Mumbai, India

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    Fine except the following:
    Ruchi Infra = Rs 50,000 Maximum
    IFCI – Split equally between IFCI and IDBI Bank
     
     

  118. Dear Kalidasji,
    Someone from Ahmedabad business community was trying to provide free expert advice about PM’s. I did not react, but sounding out here to again hear some reassuring words of wisdom.
    The fellow says :- “Silver may go up to 50K during next 3 months or so, but, careful about Gold. It may correct to 16000 Level”
    I took this with pinch of salt, as I am aware that many Jewelers in India short sell Gold in futures market as a hedge against their in shop inventory. May be he has done the same and now his wishful thinking is Gold would correct back to 16K i.e. about 1080 USD/Oz as per my calculations.
    Is this a possibility or just a wishful thinking on this fellow part”
    Dongre, India, 19 Nov 2010

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    There are many who express off the cuff remarks without backing up the statements the way I do. I therefore ignore them. There are many crows around.

    This opinion – that Gold will correct to Rs 16000 (Down 20%) and Silver will rally by Rs 7000 ( +15%) – is paradoxical. They usually move together with silver moving both ways faster than gold. On what basis this gentleman says Silver will move higher and gold lower. we do not know.

    Do not ask me my opinion and waste my time on such wild opinions.
     

  119. Sorry, missed out the location details

    Chetana
    Bangalore, India

  120. Sir,
    I had 27000 shares of Satyam at an average price of Rs. 83.25. Today, I sold 10000 at Rs. 69.75 and from the proceeds, bought (with equal investment in each) IOC, HPCL, MRPL, WIPRO, IFCI, ZEENEWS, RCOM, RUCHI INFRA, TTML, ESSAROIL which all had corrected (10-25% from the monthly high). I did so because instead of booking loss, thought of staying invested and shift from one single script script to many sother to reduce the risk. I still have 17000 of Satyam. Looking at the way it is falling, should I put a stop loss and if so, can you suggest at what level ? If I need to swap into another “safer than Satyam” stock, which one should I swap into ? I know you have answered questions related to Satyam many times and made your stand clear but because there is lot of talk about manipulation by Satyam senior management, am requesting if you could give your suggestion.

    Kalidas Says………..Tuesday, 23 November, 2010
    I was away for last few days, and not really in grip oftr the things. Further, my server was down for ADM and was repaired only today. I would wait for a couple of days before I could answer.

  121. Bulls eye once again.
    Sone days back when you were advocating selling , some of the respected business channels had people talking of higher market with all the inflows.
    Am glad did not listen to them & saved my portfolio from losses, enough  to pay for an overseas holiday.

    Deekay
    New Delhi
    19th November 2010

    Kalidas Says……..Friday, 19 November, 2010
    reserve Rs 50 to buy me a coffee in good coffee house.

  122. Hello Sir,
    Post QE2 every second analyst on CNBC is talking about $100 – $120 Oil.
    My question is when China is slowing down, Europe is in shambles and there is no recovery in US then who would buy all this Oil and what for? There can be a temporary blowup in Oil prices because of speculators but that is true of almost any commodity. Why is there so much noise about Oil then?
    Regards,
    Pawan,
    Delhi, India

    Kalidas Says……..Friday, 19 November, 2010
    GDP growth or not, are you not eating everyday? similarly, Oil is so much involved in every day of our life that it has become indispensable. With so much money being printed,. too many dollars will chase same quantity of commodity, so oil price have to rise.
     
     

  123. Dear Sir
     
    May I know why you suggest ZEE News for the readers?
    Is it worth buying now or wait still the stock corrects to Rs.10/-?
    What is your target and holding period for it?
     
    Regards
    R Subha
    Chennai, India.

    Kalidas Says……..Friday, 19 November, 2010
    It is a good media stock having low profile for the time being. I bought it when it took so long for consolidation. It might be a good take over play later by some foreign investors.

    Nothing otherwise so special. Not even earnings.

    Since the market is weak take position when the stock has corrected. I do not know for sure whether it will reach Rs 10. I have bought a few thousands and will buy more on weakness.

  124. Dear Kalidas Sir,
    this is a bit different but urgent question, that one of my close friend has traveled to Hong Kong. Can you please suggest if what I should ask him to buy for me from there, which is cheaper in HK but v costly in India. some frnds told me of iphone4, ipod etc.. but i am thinking to take your views on buying something which is an asset in real term. may be you could suggest some shop/show room where duty free goods, wrist watches,like Rolex or TAG Heaur,  chinese made blackbarry or iphone etc. are available.may be i am not sure, but does the silver or gold cost lesser there compare to india ? or any other thing suggession ?
    Regards
    $amir, Mumbai , 11/19/2010

  125. Dear Kalidasji,
    The “Silver Bullet” to Kill JP Morgan Chase is to buy Physical Silver.  Max Keiser says so ..  Max Keiser tells the world to Crash JP Morgan, buy silver __http://maxkeiser.com/.
    As you have been advocating this for a long time, why don’t join the Bandwagon.

    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India.

    Kalidas Says……..Friday, 19 November, 2010
    In Christianity, Silver Bullet is used to destroy or kill the Satans or Demons. Let JP Morgan degrade its status to “Satan” when it will see its end nearer.

  126. Hello,
    hope you are fine, would you please share your views about the fundamentals of “Karuturi Global”?Is this stock worth investing for 2-3 years?
    Thanks & Regards
    Somnath Bhattacharjee
    Kolkata
    West Bengal
    India
     
     

     

  127. Dear Sir,
     
    Hope this message  finds you in good health. Here is the article which I read on the microfinance industry in India : http://www.cnbc.com/id/40244287
     
    “Now some Indian officials fear that microfinance could become India’s version of the United States’ subprime mortgage debacle, in which the seemingly noble idea of extending home ownership to low-income households threatened to collapse the global banking system because of a reckless, grow-at-any-cost strategy.”

    Could this add fuel to the fire ? Your thoughts please

    Regards
    Vyas Nambiar, Bangalore, India

    Kalidas Says……..Friday, 19 November, 2010
    Both are totally different. Microfinance is just inventive terms, nothing new. it is more like “Multani finance” charging usurious interest rates legally banned in India, and still RBI approves such institutions, Even banks have lent over Rs 5000 crores cumulatively for such companies following illegal practice.

    It is very tiny portion of total finance in India. It has not comparison and does not pose any threat to the economy except some section of the society who borrowed at huge interest cost and were forced to commit suicide.

  128. Dear Kalidas ji,
    Please give me your views on coal india stock.
    Thanking you
     
    Ravi, Dubai

    Kalidas Says……..Friday, 19 November, 2010
    Good to own on 10 years basis but I do not know whether I will be alive by then. I am already 63.

    in short run, it is expensive. Let it drop more to 5% below IPO level when it would be good to enter with small position. I do not like coal stocfks though because they are viewed as environment unfriendly. Still Coal is going to stay.

    I would take firm position only after its next quarter result is out after accounting for IPO. It will show how many shares are outstanding and EPS. The EPS for coming quarter will be less than IPO Quarter because huge subscription will mean lot of one time interest income that may not repeat itself.

    Result of second quarter after IPO will be more useful guide for taking investment position. It is a single product company that may not and should not command P/E of over 8 in best circumstances.

  129. Respected Kalidas,

    Do you have any plan to sell you’re great book ”Sub prime Resolved “ in Australia.   I have moved from London (I was stayed 5 years there) to Melbourne and will stay longer. I thought of offering my help in selling you’re book in Australia. Sir, please let me know if you need any help from me for this purpose.
     
    I’m you’re one of the great silent follower for long terms investment prospective.
     
    Raj (wipro),
    18/11/2010; Melbourne, Australia

    Kalidas Says……..Friday, 19 November, 2010
    Noted. I will revert to you later by email. I was wondering for a while where you had disappeared. Thanks for your post that reminded me that you are still there. We did talk with each other while I was in Hong Kong.

  130. sir,
    with all humility i wish to say that i have never in the wildest of dreams ever intended to cross examine you with my queries and all i was trying to do was get my doubts cleared because i consider you as my guru and i simply dont have your knowledge or wisdom about stocks and markets . you have misunderstood my question and since that you have read it in a different context, all i can say is that i have never had any such intention to question your wisdom or cross examine your statements. I hope this will help dispel any such thoughts you might have about my queries.
    thanking you.
    vivard
    kerala.
    india.

  131. sir,
    With all due respect i wish to say that you have misinterpreted my query and I am sure i have never had any intention to cross examine you. There is no compare between your knowledge and wisdom and my understanding of stocks and the market. how then do i stand to cross examine? I am just a novice trying to grapple with the fundamentals of stock on which i have no much bearing and look forward to you and your blog for guidance. I consider you as my guru and have been doing so from the time i got directed to you by another well wisher.I would request that you please not misconstrue my questions as i am just trying to get my doubts cleared from you and nothing else. thanx.
    vivard
    kerala,
    India.

    Kalidas Says……..Friday, 19 November, 2010
    Noted. No issues. You can always ask questions which will get answered as always/

  132. To all the readers,
    I see a lot of repetitive questions to Kalidas especially on IOC and MS. First of all Kalidas is doing a great service to all of us by patiently answering all our queries inspite of being very busy and occupied with lot of things. Kindly respect his time and see the previous messages/posts before asking new queries. Thats my humble request.
     
    @Kalidas,
    Thanks for your sell call earlier. I once again managed to save lot of money. I am planning to deploy my cash to IOC, HPCL, BPC, MRPL and MS in equal proportions with your Blessings.
     
    Thanks Once Again,
    Sanman Kelkar,
    Goregaon, Mumbai
    Date of Posting: 17th November 11:25 p.m.

  133. IOC stake sale in first quarter of 2011

    Sir as per the link provided below , it says that IOC is looking at raising $4.3 bn, based on this can you let us know if we can guess the FPO price band which may be fixed, which can give us an idea what price we can expect in the current secondary market for the FPO to receive god response.This will help us in analysing other similar offers.

    http://www.smartinvestor.in/market/story-49377-storydet-Indian_Oil_hires_6_banks_for_43_bn_share_sale_IFR.htm

    Thanks

    Rahul Bondre
    Mumbai India
    Nov17th 2010

    Kalidas Says……..Friday, 19 November, 2010
    Sometime ago, IOC Chairman was on record to quote the FPO Price at Rs 450 per share when the stock was still trading at Rs 360

    It would be the case. If Government wants that price, it may announce some steps or news that could boost the present stock price beyond or near to Rs 450

    The pricing depends on the current market conditions and the market of IPO. The market was different when Coal India IPO hit the market. Right now, the market is in pretty bad shape.

    There are no other rules that govern the IPO or FPO pricing.

  134. Could not control my laughter!  Asians do not have balls but still have billion population.  Can read your mind how disgusted you are with people in Govt, RBI, SEBI etc.
    J Ganesan
    Salem, TN India

  135. Hello Kalidas,
     
    I have 2000 Mahindra Satyam shares at an average price of 102. This close to 30% of my holdings in stocks. My investment was purely for a 6 – 8 months horizon where I was expecting a good return post the Q 1 – Q2 results. Now that the results are out and not very encouraging, do you suggest that I average at these levels or just hold on for another 2 quarters with the hope to at least cover my costs with a decent profit.
     
    Am generally  a long term investor but with Satyam I just took a short term bet with the extra cash I had. I might need to pull out at least 50% of this investment by Dec as I have some personal commitments to be taken care of.
     
    Do you think it would be a right move to pull out 50% right now and re-invest in some other stocks for short term to try and recover al east part of the loss. Or just stick on to MSat for long term.
     
    Thanks for your feedback.
     
    Regards,
    Meher
    Bangalore, India
    17th Nov 2010

    Kalidas Says……Wednesday, 17 November, 2010
    A long term player never plays short term. When you want to play short term, you buy only in strong correction such as now. To my knowledge, although you claim as long term investor, you put up many questions which are meant for short term investments.

    You are also blinded by the public opinion that Satyam numbers were not so good whereas the fact is otherwise. There is orchestrated campaign against this stock for big funds who may want to accumulate the stock in sizable numbers. No intelligent broker will ever ignore Satyam with present financials.

    Shed your habit of playing short term. You also know that I do not advise on short term basis. My original target on Satyam has remained same, in fact it will move higher.

    Wait until Dec quarter. However with negative publicity around and market being weak, Satyam may see more negative days. The buying will kick in in about 15 days.

    Real numbers will be for March quarters. Most companies have their annual budget to start from January when they sign up the contracts. Satyam will be major beneficiary. You may see the price of Satyam over Rs 120 in third week of April.

    You take trading position on stronger stocks for long position and weaker stocks for short position. At the moment, the stock is in weak position for about 2 weeks.

    Why do you want to speculate when your investment budget is small. Put your hands in your pocket and do not take them out. Investing Rs 2 lakhs being 30% means that your budget is just about Rs 6 lakhs to 7 lakhs. so, when you are disposed to almost 500% return in stocks like IOC which have shown remarkable result never seen in last 5 years, why do you want to speculate in other scrips.

    Long term investors usually read only headlines of newspaper, not full story full of blips.

  136. Did not see anywhere that Nayar has said  that MS will merge into TM, except on the news coverage by Reuters.

    Seems Reuters has taken out this line from their own understanding with whatsoever intentions.

    Interestingly , when I googled I got similar news article in Sep/Oct again from them talking of the same thing.

    Deekay,
    New Delhi
    17th Nov. 10

    Kalidas Says……Wednesday, 17 November, 2010
    I always rely on official statement as released on BSE/NSE by the company than heresay or newspaper reports. Many financial journalists are on payroll of big brokers and company, so they go on churning out news to suit their individual interests. This is why i never depend on their views which many readers quote here with links.

  137. Dear sir,Can you please advise the prospects of the scrip : Allied Digital Services (NSE: ADSL – BSE – 532875)CMP : Rs 203 – Rs 5 Paid up Thanks,Tanjore,Tamilnadu17th Nov

    Kalidas Says……Wednesday, 17 November, 2010
    not a bad stock. Only small position is suggested in strong correction. At the moment it is after 1:1 bonus, so the price is relatively expensive. I would rather buy Satyam at Rs 84 with Rs 1200 crores turnover per quarter or Rs 4800 crores per year than ADSL with only 15% turnover. If I have to exercise choice, I would prefer Satyam

  138. Sir,

    AUD touched it’s peak around 1.015 and has started reverse trend and as per below link suggests AUD will fall further against USD. Presentlly around 0.973
    http://www.xe.com/news/2010/11/12/1521317.htm?utm_source=RSS&utm_medium=TL&utm_content=NOGEO&utm_campaign=News_RSS_Art13
    Kindly advise your views. I am holding the lot bought at 0.855 and few days back bought more at 0.975 as per your suggestion to other broader.
    Thanks
    Naren,Guangzhou,China

    Kalidas Says……Wednesday, 17 November, 2010
    It always happens when the Gold, Silver, non USD currencies and US Dollar index comes to December expiry. When the dollar goes down in previous months, and commodities like Gold and Silver go for physical delivery on expiry, the US government through HSBC and JP Morgan, the biggest shorters of gold and silver, buy USD index so that commodities and foreign currencies go down.

    in order to control the gold and silver prices from hiking further, The US government through CFTC increased margin requirements, even for old contracts, by 30% which resulted in selling of these commodities.

    US $ Index is represented by counter assets like Euro, GBP, AUD, Sweedish Kroner, Japanese Yen and one more currency (Canadian dollar, I suppose, but not sure). So, when $ goes up, other currencies go down.

    The trend will reverse when the Dec contract expires and new contracts for March replaces it. At the moment, March is sold and Dec is bought.

    You can not strictly control the Forex currencies. They are highly in government sponsored Institutions hand. However, such manipulations do not last long. Most damage has been done and will reverse within next 7 days or so.

    If you want to play safe, sell everything and book the profits. I am sure you have not bought large quantity of AUD in last purchase.

  139. Dear Kalidasji,
    Last year I bought an apartment in the top floor(10th) of a 15 -year old building in Surat and after renovation, I shifted in July this year.
    Due to heavy rains this season, the roof started leaking and lead to heavy seepage in almost my entire flat. I put forth my complaint to the President of the society, who looks after the maintenance of the building. Due to reasons best known to him, the President simply refused to consider it and asked me to bear the entire expenses of repair of the common roof.
    My question is:
    1) As I am paying an annual maintenance charge of Rs. 22,000/- to the society, am I entitled to ask the society to bear the entire expenses for repairing the common roof? Interestingly, society is spending nearly Rs. 11.00 lacs on painting of the entire building from the coffers of maintenance charges received.
    2) In case society refuses to pay, can I go to consumer court for claiming reimbursement of repairing expenses along with losses incurred by me in my flat due to seepage?
    Regards,
    Ghanshyam
    Surat – India
    17th Nov 2010

    Kalidas Says…………..Wednesday, 17 November, 2010
    I am in same situation as you are right now, though my Secretary has not yet refused to carry out the repairs. Each state has its own Cooperative Housing Society laws. In Maharashtra, it is governed by Maharashtra Cooperative Housing Society Act and in Gujarat (surat) it may be Gujarat Coop HSG Socty Act.

    Yes, roof over the flat is the property of the society. It is a common assets of the Society. The Society is required to repair it at their cost and expenses.

    Do the following:
    1. Take the close pictures of the leaking spots in entire flat. Take out large print out 8* x 5* preferably (Take out 2 copies at least)
    2. Serve a Notice to the Society recounting your requests in the past which were unanswered.
    3. After recounting the instances of reminders, make this as Official Notice on the society asking it to repair the leakage and the roof immediately within 7 days of receipt of your letter. Enclose all the pictures you have taken, with mark Room No etc. to identify the leakage. Ensure that your letter is acknowledged. If they do not acknowledge, send the letter by Registered Post A/D or by local Courier with acknowledgment or receipt request.
    4. Write in the letter very clearly that the flat has become “unhabitable” due to leakage.
    5. Also write the following clause very clearly

    I request you to repair the roof and related accessories so that the leakage stops and the flat becomes habitable again. The leakage poses health risk to my entire family,

    If the Society does not carry out the repair within 7 days, I would be forced to carry out the repairs on my own and recover the money from the Society immediately on demand.

    If the Society does not reimburse the expenses on demand, it will be liable to pay interest @ 18% per year and such amount will be recovered from the monthly maintenance payable by me.

    Also, please note that I would be entitled to damages for the inconvenience, nuisance and medical expenses incurred by me on my entire family which is attributable to the roof leakage and health hazard. as permitted by law at the entire cost and consequences to the Society.

    Send a copy to the Registrar of the Gujarat cooperative Housing Society with pictures.(or by whichever name it is called) Send it by Registered Post or by Courier against acknowledgment.

    Yes, you are entitled to recover the entire amount with interest and legal expenses from Consumer Court. Retain the copies of all correspondence for your record. Prepare a separate file.

    Do not ask such question again. This is not the right forum.

  140. Dear Sir,

    I would like to put up some more points for discussion  on Mahendra Satyam and Tech Mahendra merger. TM management must be concerned about Law action suits going on in USA. They must be trying for out of court settlement just like’ Upaid ‘. The negotiations can be clinched for less if the picture is not rosy for MS. Once Class action suits are settled they may delist ADR/ OTC in USA and can merge MS in to TM with a very favorable ratio for TM, Since promoter holdings in TM & MS are approximately 80% , 55 % respectively, it  will certainly  benefits promoters. If this is not the game plan of the Management they would not have postponed the merger process for one more year. Certainly they don’t want to merge MS with class action suits sword hanging on there head.

           you said “there were more than 8 statements which were emphasizing on negative impact rather than talking about positive future. No other IT company who recently announced their numbers were so explicit about the details of each element of their profit and loss account. Almost all positive elements of the result were diluted by TM. There is something else cooking and their motive is not known.”

           For me it appears that this could be the motive. This is the way petty minded and selfish Indian promoters work and strangely they succeed most of the times, also may be because the Indian people are extremely tolerant (Can We see anywhere in the developed world -Investors are robbed in an episode like Satyam Accounting fraud and no compensation is paid to them or even worse The Bhopal Gas mishap). As some where you rightly said HDFC bank and ICCCI banks are dacoits from Chambal, I would like to add that most of the Indian promoters are extremely selfish and manipulative  they share profits with common investors only  out of compulsion and try to avoid sharing when ever and wherever possible.

    Regards,

    Krishna,
    Hyderabad,India  

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 17 November, 2010

    All promoters are selfish. Stock market is the biggest empire and dwelling house of crooks and scoundrels. The people there are all selfish and want to make money overnight.

    Only Saints and Sadhus do not come to stock exchange to trade. even 90% off them are again crooks.

  141. Dear Kalidasji,
     
    I am a banker by profession and have been really disturbed by the increasing frequency of cancer in our country. Almost every family has a cancer horror story to tell nowadays.
    I believe that the root cause lies in our lifestyle, including the polluted food that we eat. Hence, I would like to start a small venture by buying agricultural land and only growing organic food there. I would like to reinvest the profits in buying more such land and eventually give away the profits back to society.
    I have around 20 L to invest right now. Is there any recommendation on land that you would like to give?
     
    Thanks for your help
    Saurabh
    New Delhi, India
    17th November 2010

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 17 November, 2010
    A human being is mortal. To die, one must have reason – one of them could be cancer or it could be heart attack or hapatitis or Tuberculosis or hyper tension or just old age.

    Do not be carried away by such horror story. All kind of death is a horror story. If one borns he also dies. Accept this reality.

    Yes,. you may buy Agriculture land but growing organic food will not prevent cancer for sure. In fact, it can not prevent any major disease. Yes, your thoughts are noble so devote yourself without any unruly sentiments.

  142. sir,
    The correction has started and I jumped in early to buy more of IOC. Patience is something i lack. Although your comments about a 5% up or down dont matter consoles me all the same i repent having been hasty because as i stand to lose more than I lac after buying these shares as per latest price. With the minimum reserves of 1.5L which shares should i finaly focus on from amongst IOC,HPCL,mrpl,satyam, ruchi and zee news and evinix. which i hold in the order 1000,500, 500, 1800,2000,3200.10000. or should i wait for further correction. you mentioned a recovery at around 19765. Does that mean that the epicentre of correction that was expected wont have much credence then on?
    my earlier query did not evoke a response. thanx.
    vivard
    kerala
    india.

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 17 November, 2010
    You always try to cross examine me. I never said that correction or epicenter what you have mentioned will not have credence. When I retrace my opinion I mention it here. Until such time it stand.

  143. Sorry, I forgot to add place in previous post!!
    Ramandeep Singh
    Amritsar (Punjab) – India

  144. Hi Sir
     
    I am a bit confused. I am still 40% invested for long in IOC and Satyam and I am happy with that.
    But for the rest of cash (60%) – can I invest now in HPCL/BPCL/Zee News or should I wait for the actual crash to happen?
    Thanks
    Raman

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 17 November, 2010
    You may invest some in HPCL. Wait for Zee News to correct more.

  145. OMC’s ,Satyam, Ispat and Zeenews

    Dear Kalidasji,

    I am slowly adding into the OMC’s at every 3-5% fall in them , not sure if it is the right strategy, or should I wait for the markets to fall atleast another 5-10% before I start buying into them, because I can then buy larger chunks at much lower prices.As you are already predicting that there will be a huge correction and India will be the epicentre do you see markets correcting by 20% or more, is it better to wait , is this the start of the major correction, today all the OMC’s corrected by 3-5%, along with the market.( CMP IOC- 389, MRPL-77.5, BPCL- 726, HPCL-460)

    Also I have satyam 1200@87 , CMP is 74,  am planning to buy another 800 shares below Rs. 70, is it a wise decision.

    Also wated to check with you on Ispat, you had adviced earlier to buy around 18.65 levels or so, its CMP is 18.10 , is it good to enter this script now.

    I also have ZEENEWS 5000@ 15.65 , CMP is 14.65 , shold I average it out at CMP.

    Thanks

    Rahul Bondre
    Mumbai India
    Nov 16 2010

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 17 November, 2010
    The stocks usually moves in the range of 3% to 8% at all time. so it is not wise to average down if the stock moves down for any reason.

    As a rule of thumb, one may average down if the stock is large cap and corrected by at least 12%. For second liners, the level is 25% to 40%. For thired liner like Zee News, one may wait for at least 40% correction from last purchase.

    provided the stock is good enough for long term investment.

  146. Mahindra Satyam

    Sir, 

    I have 100 @ 83, I am planning to buy total 500. Is it a good time to buy MS? today’s closing was 74.30, almost 12% down.

    Regards,

    Brawny M
    Pune India.

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 17 November, 2010
    Try your luck when it drops to 63.50 or about if the market continues to weaken. Otherwise do nothing.

  147.  Dear Sir,

    I have 18500 M Satyam stocks at 86 avg cmp 74.3. Should i buy more satyam stocks or should i switch over to oil marketing companies
    Pathan 
    Oslo, Norway

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 17 November, 2010
    No need to average down now. Always average down good Second liner stocks only after 20% correction.

  148. Dear Sir,

    Wrgd to IOC , it got 240 Cr Outstanding shares, against rev of 5294 crores, which gives 22 as Eps,

    So its PE will be taking todays rate 394/22 =17.9 as Pe ratio.

    So does O/S shares play important role.As 2row if o/s shares change from 240 cr to 120 cr, Eps would be double .

    Who has a control over these outstanding shares and can they be manipulated.

    Pls excuse me for my understanding.

    Regds
    Sameer
    Pune 

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 17 November, 2010
    Do your home work properly. Rs 20 EPS is for one quarter, not for full year. If you take Annualized EPS of Rs 80 (4 x 20), then P/E ratio is just 4.10 or about.

    It is government controlled entity – almost everyone knows that. Get out of your dirty mind of smelling share manipulation and fraud all the time. Such large PSU corporation do not have manipulative minds.

  149. Sir,
    I am holding essaroil 2000@135, is there any threat for this scrip (CMP 137). Please suggest.
    Thanks and Regards,
    Krishna,
    Hyderabad

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 17 November, 2010
    It is a stock that is tricky at the best. It behaves very badly in bad market and underperforms in good market. When the market’s goodness remain there for longer time, it starts outperforming.

    It will correct with the market. So if you want to get out because of weaker market, you do so. Otherwise, it is still a good stock to own.

  150. Dear Sir,
    I have one more question, that people are accusing China for current fall in indian markets, but , what is the actual underlying reason I feel is indian market do not have fundamentals, would you want to enlighten on this.
     
    Regards
    $amir, Mumbai 16/11/2010

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 17 November, 2010
    Rise in interest rate in China has nothing to do with India. It was just that Indian markets had shot up without any reason and they need something to correct.

    There was a famous song from Raj Kapoor’s movie. Begani shaadi mein, Absullah deewana. It is more like that syndrome.

    Yes, Indian market’s fundamentals were worsening and this is why I had mentioned that global crash in future will have India as epicenter. Government, SEBI and RBI policies to blame. With rates rising, inflation shooting up and Rupee weakening, we have perfect recipe for disaster.

    Free money from USA also played havoc. USA is the country where all problems rest, and yet rates there do not rise, $ becomes strong, Dow is rising and we in Asia have perfect diametric opposite situations. Asians were slave before, will remain slave in future. They have no balls. ( and still have over billion population)

  151. Hi Kalidasji,
    We all know you have a good background in Economics, Law and can declare perfect predictions about world financial system.
    Once you predicted that there is lot more rain up in Bombay yet to pour. And it’s proving to be true as we see the rainfall still hitting Bombay in month of Nov. What kind of analysis is this? Truly amazed by the prediction.
     
    Regards
    Ashish (Mumbai)
    India

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 16 November, 2010
    I have developed the power of observation since my college days, that is, over 46 years. Then, you get the gut feeling and inner voice tells you of the behaviour situation.

    I also watch movies, National Geographic etc and watch the animals in action. It teaches me many things. A human being is also an animal after all.

    I observed that rains were pouring in increasing intensity, so I felt that there was so much of water in the air waiting to come down. when the people talked about “earth warming” it also meant that lot of water vaporized to get into the sky. That was my observation. So, I predicted that lot of water waiting to come down, the way FII money was waiting to come into the stock market. I looked at the Rupee. If it stengthens, it means that FII bought rupee first to buy the stocks later.

    Of late, the Rupee was weakening, It meant that FII wanted to cover Rupee into Dollar – that is – they would get rupee more which can come only from selling the stocks and bonds. It happened exactly = look at Rupee rate and SENSEX collapse. Read them together.

  152. Dear Sir,

    Just saw this link on oil demand .

    http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-if-oil-demand-rises-india-to-be-hit-hard/20101116.htm.

    They are saying if oil demand rises , cos like Reliance/ONGC/Cairn will be in profit, but PSU likes IOC ,HPCl will be in trouble.

    regds
    Sameer
    Pune

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 16 November, 2010
    Do not listen to such crap. In fact, it is time to sell ONGC/Reliance and switch to IOC/HPCL/BPCL/MRPL.

    You have seen the result. This is what we predicted in our article. No one predicted the way I did, so if you want to read other analysts, do so by all means. Make your own judgment.

  153. Dear Sir,
    seems like satyam became weaker after results, and OMCs taking beating despite good results, and pls suggest if this is right time to grab them or wait for some more correction.
    also pls suggest the current correction in gold and silver , when should we start buying in terms of indian rupees ? will silver comes at 37K nad gold at 18K again?
    Regards
    $amir, mumbai , 11/16/2010

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 16 November, 2010
    For Satyam, wait for a while because of negative publicity from analysts. My original target remain same, so buying now or later makes no difference to me. Pick up tomorrow in morning trade when the markets are down to 19765 level or so from which point the markets may rebound.

    Gold and Silver have corrected enough. It is time to buy again. No need to wait for more correction – you already have enough.

    I do not monitor the prices of gold and silver in Indian rupee because apart from price in $, the exchange rate play important role. When the gold is at 1365 or 1335 at the most, buy it whatever may be Indian Rupee rate. similary, Buy Silver at $25.35 or below.

  154. Sir,
    MS Chairmen Vineet Nayyar confirms that Satyam is planning to merge with TM, not the other way around as you said in this blog.
    http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-52922920101115
    -Jana, Bangalore, India

    Kalidas Says…. Tuesday…16 November, 2010
     They always go on giving conflicting statements all the time. If MS were to merge into TM, then the ADRs were required to be de-listed and not transferred to OTC. US would not allow any merger if the defunct ADR holders are not compensated as per US law.

    TM/MS merger is classic example of SEBI’s antipathy to protect the interests of MS shareholders. There can not be merger announcement one day and keep it pending for over 1 or 2 years. Before a company merges with another company, the taking over company usually conduct the detailed “due diligence” before announcing merger. If due diligence was already carried out, why does it take so long to announce the full details of the merger. SEBI is misbehaving by delaying the merger announcement for 2 years if latest statement were to be considered from TM as quoted by you.

    If TM merges into MS, then the ADR listing would continue. Otherwise it would not. TM will find itself in hot water in USA if it does not conduct itself well and come up clean with the merger process.

    Look at the latest quarterly numbers announced by MS. You will find that there were more than 8 statements which were emphasising on negative impact rather than talking about positive future. No other IT company who recently announced their numbers were so explicit about the details of each element of their profit and loss account.

    Almost all positive elements of the result were diluted by TM. There is something else cooking and their motive is not known. They have absolutely no case to defer the merger process. How could SEBI allow TM to take control of MS which has over Rs 1200 crores in hard cash, to take control of the MS without officially completing the merger process?

    Does TM wants to eat away all cash without merging into MS – we do not know.

    Such anomaly would exist only in India – never in western market. It is like announcing engagment between a bride and groom and actual wedding is postponed for over 2 to 3 years. It would cast aspersion on the bride for no fault of her own.
     

  155. Anilji

    I have a question reg IOC.
    Govt gave grant of 7219 cr. but profit is 5200 cr. If  the govt had not given grant then there would have been loss of 2000 cr.
    Last year govt didnt give grant so profit was 200cr.
    Please clear my doubts whether I am wrong in my anaysis.
    Thanks
    Sunil
    Bangalore India

    Kalidas Says…. Tuesday…16 November, 2010

    Government does not give outright grant to IOC. It merely compensates for loss of revenue by sharing the subsidy along with IOC, upstream producers like ONGC and Government itself. Earlier, it used to give OIL BONDS in exchange of its obligations. There was no cash grant or otherwise.

    This time around, the government gave away its burden of subsidy by cash rather than oil bonds. It is not outright grant.

  156. Hi Kalidas,
    I was going through your article about OMC’s and saw that you had used 125 cr shares outstanding for IOC when you made your calculations. However, it seems like there are actually 240 Cr outstanding shares

    Based on that, for the latest quaterlly results, I am calculating the following numbers (please correct me if I am wrong)

    IOC  240 Cr  NP=5294CR   EPS approx 22/share

    HPCL  34 Cr , NP=2089Cr, EPS apprx 60/share

    BPCL 36 Cr, NP=2142 Cr, EPS approx 60/share

    Based on the current share prices and the rececnt results, wouldn’t you rank HPCL, BPCL and then IOC in that order? I know you gave your explanation in your article, but I just wanted to make sure you used  240 Cr shares in your calculation instead of 125 Cr shares

    Kalidas Says…. Tuesday…16 November, 2010

    It was already clarified later after the article when some readers pointed this out. There was a bonus 1:1 earlier, and this author thought that number of shares appearing were after the bonus, not before.

    Yes, number of shares outstanding is close to 240 crores. I have already given reasons why do I prefer IOC in the said article. They have almost 3 times sales than others, and if oil prices were raised, the biggest beneficiary would be IOC not others, Further, other companies have very few number of shares whereas IOC has almost 8 times the shares. In other words, its market cap will rise so much that it will become Top Index stock outpacing even ONGC, SBI and Reliance. The index tracking fund will have to buy IOC more than any other stocks (HPCL and BPCL)

  157. United States: Prospects

    Dear Sir,

    The USA is facing a dollar de-valuation and is going to face a fall in the living standards. So, i am curious to know why do you think that it has a bright future ahead.

    Jim Rogers in an interview said that if you are smart you would be in England in 1807 , in America in 1907 and in Asia in 2007. Why you think otherwise?? or based on what events in future the USA will come back strongly?

    With Regards,
    Anshuman Patra
    New Jersey
    USA

    Kalidas Says…. Tuesday…16 November, 2010

    I am going to USA. Asian nations are highly corrupt and most irresponsible. The growth does not grow in corrupt regime. It is like good crop does not grow well if the weeds are around.

    Asian nations are trying to develop infrastructure whereas western nations already have clean infrastructure and highly efficient government administration without major trace of corruption. Until the corruption ends in Asia, it is not even 10% match of USA.

    Jim Rogers is entitled to his views. He has not yet tested the extent of corruption pervading in Asia. Look at India recently – CWG games, Adarsh episode in Maharashtra and also Raja affairs in 2G Spectrum fraud. And where is the leadership – Manmohan Singh is sleeping – he appears to be suffering from amnesia and

  158. Sensex Correction:

    Dear Sir,

    1. To what extent do you see the sensex correcting in the near future?

    2. Oil is touching $85 a barrel. Cairn seems to be highly correlated to price of oil. What is your forecast for oil/ Cairn in the future( 2 year period)?

    3. I think in the future, the prices of commodities (other than gold and silver ) are going to increase due to printing money. What is your opinion?
    Could you please suggest any  stock in the Indian stock exchanges which correlate to the commodity prices?

    With Regards,
    Anshuman Patra
    New Jersey
    USA

    Kalidas Says…. Tuesday…16 November, 2010

    It all depends how succesful US is in offloading excessively printed money to other nations like India, China and Japan. At the moment, all these nations are disposed to weaken their currency by buying useless dollars. so long as you hve stupid friends around, you are likely to succeed.

    Yes, the commodity prices will rise, but more in emerging countries who allow their currencies to weaken. For instance, of late when the gold corrected by over 4%, the Indian Rupee weakened by 3% boosting price of gold in rupee terms. It applies to all commodities. The inflation in Emerging Markets will rise much faster than USA due to suicidal policies. When some one want to commit suicide, you can not prevent it.

    1. I do not speculate on SENSEX because rarely do I buy Index stock.

    2. Cairn will earn more on volume than price increase itself. It has come to production stage. I can not predict the price of oil in dollar terms or rupee terms because there are too many variables and policy issues

    3. This point is answered above.

  159. sir,
    Iocl seems to be a screaming buy as per your recent reply @398/-. my portfolio value as of now comprises 25% of ioc and hpcl alone. i hold 500hpcl and 800 ioc as of now. should i buy further or wait for correction. am waiting for satyam and mrpl to correct a little more to buy 1000 each. i already hold 1000 satyam. in such a situation where ioc is below 400 would it be prudent to buy more of ioc immediatley or wait to buy mrpl and satyam under 80 each. since ioc is already at a lower rate and could be bought immediately, whereas satyam and mrpl i would prefer to buy near 80 level and it is possible that that level might not necessarily come. in such a case should i attach more importance to buying ioc immediately preferabley400nos and thereby skip mrpl and satyam altogether more so since as per your views satyam has cope for only 300% rise(target-240) whereas IOC you project 500% increase.? hence i would love to get a sure shot and clear answer. i have another 2.5L in my kitty.
    Thanks and sorry to say i am directing few of my friends to your blog ( could increase your work load). appreciate your advise very much.
    regards
    vivard
    kerala, india,

  160. Sir
    IOC has fallen today despite of wonderful quaterly results. Is follow on issue   the reason for it’s fall ? Can it go  further down 10-15 % from present market value in anticipated correction ?

    Regards

    arun
    Mumbai, India 

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010Non sensical question. When the result comes out good and stupendous, and the stock falls, it is a screaming buy opportunity, so act on them.

    If you think whether it will drop by 10% to 15% is a wonderful question. When the stock is trading at Rs 400, it can drop to Zero also, isn’t it?

    So if the stock drops by 10% to 15%, again you will go into your cave asking another question, whether it will drop another 20% from that level. there is no end to it.

    If you are convinced that the profit trend is positive, stay with the stock, otherwise get out. Also, when the stock has potential to rise by 500%, I do not care whether or at all the stock drops by 10% to 15% or 30%. My gains will be simply more if I stick to it and buy more for every drop.

  161. Mahindra Satyam

    Dear Sir,

    I have a large position in MS and would request you guidance here.

    Most opinions on the results talk about three things broadly:

    1. The worst for MS is behind, and the outlook looks stable. Especially in view of the rising headcount.
    2. There has been a drop Q on Q, which is being attributed to rising salary cost, but is not a good sign.
    3. MS might show the profits on lower side, so that the merger with TM favors the TM shareholders and not MS.

    Could you pls comment on the third point.

    Further…

    What wrong do you see in these results ? There has to be something wrong, everything cannot be happy and good. Does everything look fine, are the Mahindra’s trustworthy or are the shareholders getting into a a possible manipulatuive raw deal ?

    How do you foresee the market reacting to this result. Do you aniticipate a huge gap down tomm?

    Could you pls suggest a trading strategy for tomm ? The stock is valuable – there might be a good manipulation tomm to bring the stock down for accumulation at lower levels and subsequent buyback.

    regards
    Mehr, 15 Oct, Singapore

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010
    I have told you umpteen times that I do not have trading strategy. MS is meant for long term investors. So be it. Stay with the stock if you have holding power, otherwise just get out. No need for any analysis.

    The result is good and positive. Everything is fine here. There is not a single negative branch which would pull the company down. And for God sake, get out of your self imposed “Conspiracy theory” of Mahindra out to cheat the investors. Do not waste your time in analysing the fraudulent intent of Tech Mahindra. Why don’t you understand one simple thing – TM is merging into Satyam, not other way round. MS is going to exist, not TM

  162. Kalidas ji,
     
    Satyam has posted not so good results and the merger ratio and future outlook is still not clear.
     
    http://indiaearnings.moneycontrol.com/sub_india/compnews.php?autono=499432
     
    A gap down opening is expected tomorrow. The stock got a beat today after CLSA downgraded this stock along with WIPRO, HCL.
     
    What would be your advice for SATYAM investors. Is it good to add more and average it out, if the stock goes below 4% or above?
     
    I have 2200@89.
     
    Regards,
    KeeYes
    Tokyo
    Japan

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010
    Following is for your own digestion:

    the management said company’s headcount was at 27,722 employees in Q1 and 28,068 employees in Q2.

    If the company was not doing so well, why should it increase the head count?

    The fact that Satyam has reported profit instead of massive loss itself is an indication that worse is over and bad past is behind them for good.

    It seems that you are guided more by CLSA downgrades than anything else. If you are too much worried, just get out and do not look at this counter again.

    I maintain my old opinion without any demur. With or without CLSA.

  163. Kalidasji,
    CLSA has come out with a report saying “AVIOD” Satyam.. please find the link and CLSA analysis below….
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/news/clsa-downgrades-wipro-hcl-says-avoid-satyam_499302.html
    Today we have Mahindra Satyam with its quarterly numbers. What are your expectations of what you can hear today and how are you modeling that?
    A: We are not modeling that; we think Satyam is not a model able stock. We think it’s a highly speculative situation, especially in a demand upturn. One of the things we have been arguing for is Satyam employees stayed together for a while because there was no hiring going on in the industry but now the situation is different.
    We think over a period of time the Mahindra Satyam Group will have to pay substantially higher salaries to retain employees on their brand and at the same time they will fight a daily battle to retain customers. We think expectedly the numbers will be disappointing and we are not recommending this stock at all.
     
    “Would you stick your guns out for “Satyam” or would you like to revise your targets downwards…. at this point in time i am thinking of shifting from Midcap Banking to Satyam…
    Please Advice..
     
    Rahul  Bose
    Chennai, India

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010
    The readers should quit habit of asking me to revise or reverse my opinion based on some banks or investment bank’s opinion to my contrary.

    I have my own views and I have been fairly consistent in my recommendations and arguments. As recently as now, Mahindra Satyam decided to bid for a large company in USA in competition with some peers in INdia. The common sense tells us that they would not have done so unless the past troubles were nearly over. This was the first positive indications.

    The industry as a whole has reported nice numbers with TCS doing exceedingly well. Mahindra Satyam’s customers, if I remember right, are mostly from pharmaceutical industry which is almost recession proof. Many UK companies renewed the contracts extending into 3 years and more. They would have thought ten times more than what you and I think over, because they have ready information right on their table, whereas we don’t.

    Most investment banks prepare some mathematical models on which their opinion usually rests. such models donot think nor smell nor have artificial intelligence to anticipate the future events. I am more human and use my own intelligence and feeling.

    So their opinion is theirs, and Kalidas opinion’s is Kalidas. Believe where you saw more success in the past.
    15th Novemeber

  164. Sir

    Bharti airtel’s second-quarter net income dropped to Rs16.6 billion in the three months ended September 30 from Rs22.6 billion a year earlier.

    The stock price is near 300.

    My question is

    1)What is your outlook for Bharti’s business in the next 1 year? When do you see price wars in this sector getting over?

    2)At what price should long term investors enter to start buying?

    3)What is your price target for the next 1 year?

    4)Will Bharti ever touch it’s all time high of 500 (after considering bonus price)?

    5)Rcom is at 200 down 80% from it’s all time high of 900. Can we consider Bharti would also reach 20% of it’s peak price before it hits bottom  i.e. will it touch 100 (after bonus price)?

    Thanks

    Princeofindia
    Abu Dhabi

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010
    I do not follow telecom stocks or sector for a while. It is too difficult to follow with their income often questionable.

    Further, I do not understand your tactics and reliance on using Arithmatic applying same principle for Bharati as for Reliance Communications.

    You say that RCOM has dropped 80% from all time high, but you did not question why RCOM reached all time high at nearly 5 times from current prices at first place. Most investors believe that if the stock has come down from Rs 100 to Rs 40, so it is a good buy but what they do not ask why that stock went to Rs 100 at first place.

    At the moment, both Bharati, RCOM and other telecom stocks are not in my favored list, so I ignore them. You are not asking why HPCL with 36 crore shares outstanding is not cheap when its quarterly profit has swollen to Rs 2060 crores or Rs 70 per share for one quarter alone, For full year, it might go to Rs 180 at least, if not Rs 240 using your mathematical skill. In that case, the stock is trading at just about 3 times EPS. Why do you ignore such gems and go for Bharati and Rcom etc when they are trading at exceedingly high level compared to earnings and potential.

    Better spend your time on stocks with great earning prospects rather than their academic historical level. It is earnings that determine the price of any stock, not their historical levels. Often such levels are obsolete and history do not necessarily repeat itself.

  165. For Veekay..

    Moving to Singapore might be a good choice if you get t least 7000SGD or more. Rentals in Singapore are very high if you are intending to move with your family.

    Despite having medical insurance the medical costs are very high and as a foreigner you end up paying a lot (the costs are different for a citizen, PR and foreigner).

    I have seen couple of my friends moving back to US as they found Singapore to be too expensive and boring compared to US.

    Also job switching is very difficult for an Indian in Singapore.

    I have been here for 4yrs and am finding it difficult to sustain my savings.

    Hope this helps.

    Kalidasji – Sorry for advising before you replied but I just wanted to help people from falling prey to rosy pictures.

    Regards,
    Atul
    Singapore

  166. Dear Sir,
                   You had written somewhere that Tech Mahindra would try to keep Satyam prices low so that its shareholders might get more shares.
                                                      Does it mean new entrants like me in this stock should wait for lower price of Satyam?
                                                            Thanks
                                                          Baila, Nagpur,India

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010
    I never said that. Some reader asked that question and asked my opinion thereon.

  167. Sir
    Sometime back you mentioned that instead of purchasing gold in Singapore & incurring 7% GST, one can fly to HK and purchase gold. I did an evaluation of the same. At CMP, 1 OZ gold in SG is 1985 SGD (UOB), whereas 1 OZ Gold Maple (Sealed) in BOC HK is 11075 HKD (i.e., 1861 SGD, assuming i convert 100 SGD to 595.35 HKD  @ BOC HKD selling rates)
     
    Savings / OZ = 124 SGD, i.e., Savings / 32 OZ (approx 1 Kilo) = 3968 SGD
     
    Instead of converting my 1 KG UOB Gold cert to physical in SG (which incurs 7% GST), i feel i can do the following:
     
    1. Liquidate 1 KG cert in UOB SG
    2. Fly to HK, and buy physical gold for 32 OZ
    3. Fly to India and store physical Gold in India, and fly back to SG
    Seriously considering the above option to convert my gold certificate to physical.
    Q1) Can you please advice if my calculation above is correct ? Any better options you would like to suggest ?
    Q2) Is BOC a good place to buy gold in HK, or is there any other place you can suggest?
    Q3) Since the amount involved is high, what would be the most easiest mode for me to execute the transaction without having to carry Cash?
     
    Thanks
    Bobby, Singapore
    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010
    You do not read me properly at times. I always maintained that one should not buy coins or similar products because they are always quoted 11% to 30% higher. You have to buy simple vanilla Bars of 10 to 100 ounces, not coins or other commemorative medals or medallions.

    If you do not have facility to buy gold without paying 7% VAT, just forget about investing into gold in Singapore.

    Invest where you have your own control, and you are not dependent on other to buy or sell. You have to be in supreme command.

    I think I have advised enough on gold and its investment in my detailed article. If your country is not so hospitable to Investment in gold, better skip this option and focus on some other non-gold trades.

    My idea is to buy physical. It is very simple process. Where you buy it, how much you buy it where you store it and how you trade it is all dependent on your place of domicile. I can not advise what one must do in Singapore.

  168. Dear Kalidasji,
    People have made enough money by reading your posts.I would need more valuable advise/info from your end. Here is my query:
    “I am currently in US for last 5 years on work visa and looking forward to move out from here to either Canada,Australia or Singapore.Lately i have been very impressed with singapore given salary structure, taxes,weather and distance to India.I am seriously thinking of moving to singapore soon to work in similar job -Software consultancy. I would be obliged if you please provide your suggestions/tips on my thoughts. FYI, i still have a job and valid visa in US but looking at future prospects of US Vs Asia, singapore and infact India looks to be better option. Is it adviseable to move to Singapore for the time being for working”
    Thanks a lot!
    Regards
    VeeKay
    NJ,USA- 14th Nov,2010

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010
    I do not think any other country can compete with United States including all those small islands you just mentioned.

    One can prosper only in USA – other countries are just too mediocre.

    I do not know for sure how your software and IT industry works. So far as I am concerned, I am migrating from Hong Kong to USA soon, not other way round.

    May be you saw your potential on Singapore, Hong Kong, Canada and Australia – all these countries follow only USA. Other countries do not have same class as USA.

  169. Dear Kalidasji;
    When the FED in US is buying the treasuries back in what it calls the QE2; isn’t the US Govt debt burden reducing ? 
    Also the Dollar depreciation which leads from such increased money printing is also to benefit of US; as it makes their Export more competitive creating more jobs & internal demand in their economy.
    I read your previous views that the Fed is actually using the money printed to pay unemployment benefits. But supposing  they are really buying the treasury isn’t it a good thing for US ?
    Will appreciate your insight on the above.

    Sumit
    Delhi ( India)

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010]
    Your question is bordering on being classified as “argumentative”. You do not have basic idea how the economy works. It is difficult for me to teach economics here.

    Put it simply, first FED prints currency or dollars in trillions and then go to Congress to approve financing by borrowing (from deficit finance). It then issues treasury bonds. Now that its authority has waned, and can not go to congress for approvals, it uses the name of QE2 and prints more dollars. It has to issue more T bonds to finance it when the time comes, but it says, that it is buying back Treasury Bonds. How buying back T Bonds helps FED to improve liquidity, it alone knows.

    FED is bullshitting, so do not ask my opinion. 

  170. Sir

    A fund manager has said that Sensex will touch 100,000 by 2020.

    His resoning is simple -economy will become 3-4 times from today and stocks will reflet this.

    Where do you see sensex by 2020.

    Since all economists agree that India will have a high GDP growth rate in the world for the next 10-15 years should we not be long term investors and ride the bull run rather than sell now wait for some correction and thus try to time the market?

    princeofindia
    abu dhabi

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010]
    Again you are a believer in bull story because you do not want to get out of the market at any time.

    Only a month ago, they said that India will enter double digit growth and when the figures came out, the growth was in fact decelerating, getting into negative, exactly as I predicted while issuing sale call.

    In murky ground, you can not see the events even 12 months ahead, and you are asking to foresee the event 12 years forward?

    What do you know of GDP growth? Do you know their basic elements?

    You are a perennial bull, so convince yourself to stay there. You are advancing illogical arguments to justify the bull run believing the Cinderella story. Nothing goes up in straight line – did even Gold go up after hitting $1423? No, it dropped.

    Do not ask my opinion unless you have back up statements from those predicting SENSEX at 100,000. Relying on bland statements is almost suicidal.

  171. sir,
    i have some money in a bank account in canada for the past around 13 years its about 25 lakh how do i get it back to india????
     
    Thanks
    Bilal
    Kanpur-India

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010
    How come you have Rs 25 lakhs in Canada when you are in India for 13 years. If you were an NRI before, the process is simple – just transfer the money to India by Telegraphic Transfer.

    If you are not an NRI, never lived abroad, then how come that you have so much of money abroad? I can not answer your question therefore.
     

  172. Coal India Ltd & Birla Power solutions

    Dear Sir,
    Kindly advice me on the below two stocks.
    Coal India: what price would you suggest to invest in this stock and how the growth prospects look over next 2-2.5 years. I am in no hurry to invest, but wanted to add in my watch list.
    Birla Power Solution : 10,000 nos  @ 2.92  CMP : 1.52.  Do you suggest to buy more to average out the price now or wait for further correction and buy more later.
     Regards,
    Atharva, UK , 2010-11-13

  173. Hi Sir
     
    Just wanted to inform that IOC is to invest 961 Cr. in a JV with NPCIL and will own 26% of the stake and it may be increased to 49%. Is it possible that we were mistaking NPCIL for NOCIL?
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/power/IOC-may-acquire-49-in-NPCIL-JV/articleshow/6732661.cms
    Regards
    Ramandeep Singh
    Amritsar (Punjab)- India

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010
    It could be. I also could not locate IOC stake in NOCIL. there were some talks many years ago but did not work out.

  174. IOC Results are out and the numbers rock.
    IOC Q2 net profit up at 5294 Cr.
    http://indiaearnings.moneycontrol.com/sub_india/compnews.php?autono=499115
     
    Regards
    Ramandeep Singh
    Amritsar (Punjab)

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010
    Rs 5294 crore shares against 240 crore shares outstanding, that is, Rs 20 per share per quarter. that is Rs 80 per share annualized. Wow! The stock trading at just about 5 times PE than at 31.11 times in same report.

    My predictions in my State Owned Refineries to make 500% gain is coming out true. It is just beginning. Buy them before it is too late.

  175. Hi Sir
    I believe I found an article that would interest you. We were wondering if IOC has bought 26% stake of NOCIL but I found that IOC has actually entered into a JV with NPCIL and has 26% stake in the JV. It is possible that we misread NPCIL as NOCIL.
    Here is the link:
    http://realtimetraders.com/Content/IndianNews.aspx?Id=1425348&SimRec=1&Node=B1
     
    Regards
    Ramandeep Singh
    Amritsar (Punjab) – India

  176. Dear Anil Sir,
     
    Found following from notes of BPCL September Qtr Result.
    It looks like they accounted discount from upstream OIL Companies for the first half year in September Qtr Result. Also they accounted subsidy received from GOI in last qtr. Still they use word partial compensation of total under recoveries. That means they may get some discount & subsidy going forward. Though it is not clear how much % they received on their total claim.
    If we calculate net EPS for Half year for FY 2010-11 it is lower by Rs. 0.86 then last year. I think this may be the reason for stock prices muted response.
     
    Notes from BPCL Result 2nd Qtr 2010
    3. For the half year ended September 30, 2010, the under-recovery on sale of sensitive petroleum products has been partially compensated to the extent of Rs 531,878 lakhs (April- September 2009 Rs 104,043 lakhs). The discount from upstream oil companies, as advised by the Government of India is Rs 237,090 lakhs (April-September 2009 Rs 104,043 lakhs). This has been accounted during the half year towards discount received for purchase of Crude Oil, LPG and SKO from ONGC and GAIL. Further the Government of India has intimated that the subsidy receivable by the Corporation for the half year is Rs 294,788 lakhs (April- September 2009 – Rs Nil) towards partial compensation of the under-recoveries on sale of sensitive petroleum products.
     
     
    Thanks.
    Parag
    Surat
     

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010
    You are more responsive to “underrecovery” etc. Why don’t you understand one simple thing – the policy has changed and it is good for SOE refiners. They have started reporting profits in thousands of crores when they were reporting losses in hundreds of crores in the past.

    What is recovery, under-recovery and subsidy from upstream companies is now more acedamic because long term trend has changed for better for OMC. Writing is on the wall.

  177. CORRECTION IN MARKET
    Sir,
    Has Market  started correcting the way You envisaged in Oct,2010 ? When do you see , Sensex touching 10000 ? Looking for  your assessment of Indian market as of now.
    Regards

    arun
    Mumbai, India

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010
    Not yet but the trends are surely negative. Even PPI data and manufacturing is negative in India. Interest rats are on rise and it will be few months before you see the property market easing sooner than anybody thought.

    My assessment is same as before – Global crash will start from India and India will be its epicenter.

  178. Dear Kalidas Ji,

    Just found this additional information on RPower results on BSE website with reference to the question I posted before this one.

    Result Press Release | 12/11/10 17:34 Company Update 
      Reliance Power Ltd has informed BSE regarding a Press Release dated November 12, 2010 titled ‘Net Profit of Rs. 234.80 Crore (US$ 52.3 Million) for the Quarter – An Increase of 21%’.  
     
      Announces Standalone Q2 results | 12/11/10 17:01 Company Update 
      Reliance Power Ltd has announced the following Unaudited Standalone results for the quarter ended September 30, 2010:
    The Company has posted a net profit of Rs 283.869 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2010 as compared to Rs 705.278 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2009. Total Income has decreased from Rs 1011.957 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2009 to Rs 574.184 million …  
     
      Announces Consolidated Q2 results | 12/11/10 16:45 Company Update 
      Reliance Power Ltd has announced the following Unaudited Consolidated results for the quarter ended September 30, 2010:
    The Group has posted a net profit after tax and Minority Interest of Rs 2348.001 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2010 as compared to Rs 1945.322 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2009. Total Income has increased from Rs 2461.508 million for the quarter ended …

    regards,
    Anurag
    Noida

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010
    I do not invest in power companies, so I do not comment on them. You do not have to read the numbers, but you have to also read where the progress of all power plants have come to.

    When the projects actually become operational, the profits of companies would suffer because all past practices of capitalizing pre operative expenses will stop and all normal Interest and Depreciation expenses will become debitable to normal profit and loss account. The profits in future will therefore decline, even if the turnover improves.

    I would therefore stay away from Power companies.

  179. Dear Kalidas Ji,

    The following results have appeared on Economic Times for Reliance Power:

    “Reliance Power has posted a net profit of Rs 235 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2010, a jump of 21 per cent over that in the same period last fiscal.

    Reliance Power had recorded a net profit of Rs 194 crore in the period ended September 30, 2009, the company informed the Bombay Stock Exchange.

    Total income of the company more than doubled to Rs 512 crore during the quarter from Rs 246 crore in the same quarter last fiscal, it said.”

    I hold around 2400 RNRL at avg price of Rs. 54, that should result to 600 RPower shares with 1:4 conversion rate. What would be your recommendation, should I sell all 600 shares as it might reach my price of approx 216 per RPower share for 2 reasons:
    One, good QoQ results and its inclusion in MSCI India Index that would lead to lot of ETFs load up the stock based on MSCI Index.

    Please advice.

    Regards,
    Anurag
    Noida
    India

    Kalidas Says…..Monday, 15 November, 2010No comments for now on RPOWER. its major profit growth is months away, if not a couple of years.

    It is too late for your to sell now. So, stay with your position.

  180. Singapore Real Estate

    Dear Sir,

    Request your views on property market in SE Asia, to be specific Singapore. The country has experienced a GDP growth of over 20%, and the interest rates on home mortgage are as low as 1.5% p.a. The real estate market rose too fast (I hear over 50-60%) in the last one year, but has cooled down recently by some 8-10%. Would you recommend buying property here (for investment), the banks are giving 80% lending and there has been no change in loan to value ratio in recent months inspite of the correction. Some banks like HSBC are even offering fixed interest rate for first 2 years at less than 2%.

    regards
    Mehr
    12 Nov 2010, Singapore

    Kalidas Says….Friday, 11 November, 2010
    check your numbers – Singapore has GDP growth of 20% – from where.

    I am negative on property both in Hong Kong and Singapore. So no need to discuss more who lend whom and how much and what rate of interest.

  181. Sir,
    I am an avid follower of ur blog, i have been following you since the 2008 Market crash and i am one of the many readers who saw ur call for LIC Housing Finance at sub 200 levels, ofocurse where it is now is for all to see (1300+), Lately i have seen ur bullish stance on Satyam i have liquidated my holdings in MIC, FirstSource Solutions & Suzlon and Bought Satyam – i can go in and double this investment but only if Satyam further corrects – i somehow have a feeling that there is an imending rally in Satyam – ofocurse this current rally has left a sour taste in many an investors and traders mouth alike — My portfolio which transformed into a 6 bagger post March 2009 is now an acute underperformer – City Union Bank and Lanco Industries are two of my biggest holding and gains have been satisfactory for CUB (45% IN 3 months) but dismal for Lanco Industries (5% in 6 months) — i remember you were very confident on LIC Housing Finance – i quote this as unparalleled stock analysis genius : you had referred to the script by saying that one could retire if one invests in LIC Housing Finance at those levels… i would like to know your level of conviction – lately i have made profit in Coal India (40%) and I have subscribed to the Power Grid FPO as well , but the essence of it all is i am not a trader and nothing gives me the feeling of accomplishment as having identified a Multi-Bagger…is Satyam the dark horse and your investment call for the next 12 months — even over OMC’s at these levels…in terms of absolute returns within the next 12 months…?

    Regards,
    Aamir
    Chennai, India
    Nov12,2010

    Kalidas Says….Friday, 11 November, 2010
    I have already given a call to buy Satyam with all targets. Now do not ask me whether it is a dark or light horse.

    Satyam recently bid for a company in USA with other counter bidders in India. It means that worse is over for Satyam and it is getting back into its groove. so use your common sense.

    I do not know your stocks such as Lanco Industries and others. I will comment later after studying. right now I am travelling and in no mood to analyze the unknown stocks.

    I do not compare returns in Satyam with OMC. you do not compare apple and orange.

  182. Dear sir,
    Can you please advise the prospects of the scrip : Allied Digital Services (NSE: ADSL – BSE – 532875)
    CMP : Rs 218 – Rs 5 Paid up
     
    Thanks,
    Tanjore,
    Tamilnadu
    12th Nov

  183. BPCL and OMC’s

    Dear Kalidasji,

    Your views on the OMC’s after looking at the result of BPCL

    http://money.livemint.com/IID66/F100547/Quarterly/Results/Company.aspx

    Do you think that the result are upto the mark as you were expecting?

    Thanks

    Rahul Bondre
    Mumbai India
    11th Nov 2010

    Kalidas Says….Friday, 11 November, 2010
    The result is stupendous, no doubt but the variation is too wide to believe it. We have to see the actual result as declared with components,. In any case, i would wait until December quarter which would more accurately reflect the effect of price change in the policy.

    making Rs 2142 crore profit on just 36 crore shares gives the Quarterly EPS of over Rs 70. I can not annualize it because the seasonal factor and accounting treatment has to be same through out.

    In nutshell, yes, the result is pointing a finger to my article on OMC (SOE Refiners). It is a good event. When a company makes about Rs 70/shr in one quarter or say Rs 280 per year against stock price of Rs 740 or so, (P/E is just 3) what do you think. You get reply in your own question.

  184. Dear Sir,
    Ruchi Infra has come out with the quarterly result. Does it meet your expectation? Should we continue to hold?
    Thanks,
    -Santosh, Bangalore, India
    http://money.livemint.com/IID66/F109020/Quarterly/Results/Company.aspx

    Kalidas Says….Friday, 11 November, 2010
    I do not analyze non comparable Q2Q numbers because June result is based on non monsoon event whereas Sep 10 result is based on monsoon season that saw heaviest downpour (rain) in Gujarat.

    Nevertheless, I am concerned at the continuous downfall in revenue which slid on Quarter to Quarter basis. It does appear that the company has floated some subsidiary where the business might have been diverted. It is just an hunch. I have to see the balance sheet in detail. I am not much concerned about the stock for the time being.

  185. Sir,
     I didn’t mention the CMP of RADHEDEVELOPERS. CMP is Rs. 1.60

    PUSHPA
    GUNTUR
    INDIA

  186. Respected Sir,
      I am having 7150 shares of Radhadevelopers @ 5.65.  I would like to swap with BIRLAPOWER SOLOUTIONS OR ZEE NEWS . Please advise me.  I am following your suggestions obediently.

    Thank you
    PUSHPA
    GUNTUR
    INDIA

  187. Hi Guruji,
    I am a usual visitor of your bolgs. I have bought a house in Pune 3 months back and have paid 17% of the Total value.
    I have about 5 lacks with me now and few ounces of gold assets.
    I am bit confused whether to put this amount in :
    a) To Pay for my house ( total worth 30 lacks ) , to make a payment of about 33% and then go for loan.
    b) Go for a loan now itself and invest 5 lacks in the shares/gold/silver.
    Please enlightenment with your valuable thoughts on this sir.
    Thanks & Regards,
    Md Yaqoob
    Chennai, India

    Kalidas Says….Friday, 11 November, 2010
    If the house is bought for own use, go for loan right now. When the market crashes the banks will run away with pants down and will not give loan even against gold.

    Stay liquid for now. It takes lot of discipline to hold on to cash. Cultivate habit to invest when necessary, just as you eat when you are really hungry.

  188. Sir
    You mentioned in a recent reply below that ‘FED wants to print money because they have to pay Unemployment allowance @$66 billion per month or $500 billions in 6 months’
    As per your theory, i thought the money must just be printed and handed over to the unemployed. Instead FED is actually buying treasuries with the stimulus money. Refer to link
    What the modus operandi here ?
    Thanks
    Bobby, Singapore

    Kalidas Says….Friday, 11 November, 2010
    you are right. The money has been printed already and handed over to the unemployed. Now, it will swell the fED’s balance sheet without any authority from congress or Senate. so it says, it will buy back Treasury to release the money which is money market operation, not borrowing operation. They are concealing the real fact that they printed without authority. and who monitors how much FED bought back treasury. There is no control or check and balance mechanism

  189. EVINIX
    Sir,
    I do not have evinix in my portfolio. Do you suggest to buy this stock at current level? CMP 3.35

    Regards
    Manjunatha Shetty
    Bangalore India
    Nov 11 2010

    Kalidas Says….Friday, 11 November, 2010
    No. Forget it for the time being. Go for Zee News instead.

  190. Selling Silver bar in Bangalore

    Kalidasji,

    Today I wanted to sell my silver (bought at Rs29000 per Kg from Bangalore Refinery, BRPL) at BRPL. I shocked to know buy/sell price 38000/42300 when the kitco silver price was US$ 28.0. I see BRPL no different from ICICI or HDFC bank which do one way trade. Is it normal thing (spread being 10%) ? In coming days, as silver price moves up, the spread may also go up from 10% to 20%. In such situation, I see merit in ETF.

    Please comment.

    Thanks
    SSS
    Bangalore
    India

    Kalidas Says….Friday, 11 November, 2010
    The real price of silver in India is worked out per following formula:

    Price in US$/31.1015 x 1000 x Rupee exchange rate.

    Add about 3% maximum to get the real offer rate in rupee terms per kg.

    Based on above formula, the Silver price is worked out as under:

    $26.95/31.1015 x 1000 x 44.90 (rupee exchange rate)

    I do not have calculator right now – so do this exercise. $ 26.95 is today’s ruling price in USA at the time of writing this. So also the Rupee exchange rate.

    silver price in $ terms is based on 1 troy ounce = 31.1015 grams

    When you divide $ price pto (Per Troy Ounce), you get the price in $ per gram. when you multiply by 1000, you get price in $ terms per Kg. when you multiply by rupee rate, you get the price in rupee terms per kg for 0.999 purity. You have to add the bank’s commission by 3% a the most – forget the ICICI and HDFC bank, they are not banks – they are dacoits from Chambal

  191. Sir,

    How are you adjusting to time for buying/selling shares in Indian stock market for yourself after reaching USA?
    regards
    arun
    mumbai, india

    Kalidas Says….Friday, 11 November, 2010
    I am still in India. Other reply is it is fairly easy. I call up my broker and place limit order.

  192. Sir

    Do you forsee any clash between china and USA. Will it be affecting all the stock markets as china tightens fund inflows with the fear that US easy money (600 billion Printed money) might create asset bubbles in their country . But in india , Montek singh said , he wont control any inflow of money into india.

    Looks like china and india policies are exactly opposite

    http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/china-and-germany-slam-us-policy-before-g20-summit/

    http://gulfnews.com/business/economy/beijing-tightens-fund-inflow-rules-1.709475

    Regards
    Ranjith
    Dubai, UAE

    Kalidas Says……Wednesday…….10 November, 2010 I do not understand, if FED prints money in United States for giving it to the American public, how come same money could find flow into Emerging Market such as India? FED is not feeding this money to pension funds to buy EM Stocks.

    I have already mentioned a few days back why FED wants to print money. Because they have to pay Unemployment allowance @$66 billion per month or $500 billions in 6 months. By naming such printing as “QE 2″, he is simply avoiding to go to the congress to take prior approval in raising debt limit. QE1, QE2 are like movie serials = God Father , Godfather 2 and so on.

    China is not Indis. They have split tongue. China never put stop to Foreign money inflow – inflation or no inflation, And it has worked for them. Chinese have two teeth like Elephant – one to show and another to use.

  193. Kindly give your advice for investment in BIRLA POWER SOLUTION cmp 1.55 for long term investment
     
    regards
    Mohit (Punja)
    India

  194. Dear Sir,

    I am having 2400 GMRINFRA @ 78. CMP 54.
    I want to switch this share to some other share. Please tell me which Share to buy on the Conversion as this share does not moves at all.

    Regds
    Abhinav Gupta

    Kalidas Says……Wednesday…….10 November, 2010
    SELL 1200 of GMR and use proceeds to buy 2000 Ruchi Infra

  195. RUCHI Infra and EVINIX

    Kalidasji,

    Wanted to know your targets and timelines for these two scripts, is it time to sell with whatever minimum profit we are getting in these scripts and then buy back later in correction.

    Both scripts have moved up sharply Ruchi Infra(CMP Rs 37, holdings 2000@36.5) and EVINIX (CMP 3.55 , Holdings 17000@3.45)

    Thanks

    Rahul Bondre
    Mumbai India
    10th Nov 2010

    Kalidas Says……Wednesday…….10 November, 2010
    No targets for the present. I do not like the market. I am buying now with intent to hold, not to sell. You always tend to ask trading advice which I do not give. it is your choice whether you want to hold long enough or simply trade.

  196. Dear Sir,

    I have RNRL 700 @ 86 (CMP: 42) and DLF 100 @ 525 (CMP:360).

    Want to swap these stocks with RuchiInfra (CMP:37) and Satyam (CMP:88). Any better alternatives for swap? Also, Is it right time to swap OR should I sell RNRL and DLF right away and wait for correction to swap?

    Thanks,
    Yogesh
    Mumbai, India
    November 10, 2011

    Kalidas Says……Wednesday…….10 November, 2010
    Do it.

  197. Dear Sir ,
    With crude prices hovering around 90 $ the prices of OMC stocks have been cooled to about 20% from the top .
    Should further dip be used for accumulating OMC stocks ? or do we strictly wait for the market correction as the trigger to make a buy .
    sachin ,pune,India.

    Kalidas Says……Wednesday…….10 November, 2010
    When I foresee over 500% return in less than 3 years, it does not make any difference to me whether we buy now or later. There is no muhurat trading for good stocks.

  198. Fertilizer stocks
    Sir
    Fertilizer stocks like NAGFER (Nagarjun fertilizer), CHAFER (Chambal fertilizer) are suddenly started moving upward. What is your opinion about this sector and these two stocks?

    Regards
    Manjunatha Shetty
    Bangalore India
    Nov 10 2010

    Kalidas Says……Wednesday…….10 November, 2010
    It is rotational switch. The sellers do not want to take the money out of the market so they are searching which stocks have not moved where they can park money.

    I never buy Fertilizer stocks. In fact, I never like to enter sector where there is government Price Control.

  199. Namaskar Anilji,
                           Belated New Year and Diwali wishes to you and all boarders.I like to appreciate your comment on Obama visit as a truly INDIAN.

    Please opine your views or analyze as follows taking your time.

    1) Are front runner Indian Auto Cos.’ growth will be still robust taking consideration of interest hike and other factors in the next year.
       
        Will bull run of TATA Motors continue (after normal correction) due to its presence in Europen market?
        ( I had purchased TATAMOTORS in small quantity @ 620 and sold @ 1050 and want to buy back at suitable oppertunity.)

    2) Is Renuka Sugar a long term (more than two years) hold because of its overseas acquisition or sell at peak (expected at FEB-MAR) and buy back before harvest of cane.
       ( I have trapped around 240 before bonus. Present nos.-200)

    3) Possible return with long term holding (at least one year) on
      a- Praj Industries (NSE-PRAJIND, CMP-75)
      b- Geometric (NSE-GEOMETRIC, CMP-77)
      c-  Delta Corp (NSE-DELTACORP, CMP-121)
      d- VIP Industries (NSE-VIPIND, CMP-641)

    Thanks a lot.

    Anil Deb
    Durgapur,INDIA 10:25 pm IST
     

  200. Dear Sir

    Is it worth buying Satyam shares now or wait for correction in the market as mentioned by you?

    Can we see below 60 levels when correction takes place?

    Regards
    R Subha
    Chennai, India.

    Kalidas Says……Wednesday…….10 November, 2010]
    why do you ask this question again and again. I have already mentioned that my sale target is rs 160 in short run (less than 15 months) and Rs 240 in 2 years. Select the level you want.

    Regarding its retracing the level to Rs 60 or below, I do not know. Flat opinion is that it is not possible unless there is market crash of serious proportion.

  201. Respected Sir

    Please answer my 4th Nov query and suggest some stocks.

    Also should I get into crowded bus now or wait ( Only concern whether I will get opportunity for a bus with seat).

    With Regards

    Renu Khanna
    New Delhi, India

    Kalidas Says……Wednesday…….10 November, 2010
    No suggestions at the moment except Satyam and Zeenews which are within my buy range. I am travelling now, and use Internet Cafe to answer your querires. I have no time for research.

  202. Kalidas ji,

    Though 85% of COALINDIA is still with GOI, this will be inducted into Morgan Stanley Capital Index (MSCI) as per this article.

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/rights-issues/Coal-India-may-soon-be-included-in-MSCI-club/articleshow/6892119.cms

    The stock has suffered almost 6% fall after the inital euphoria is out and profit booking has started. What level do you suggest is right time to enter in to this stock for long term, before this becomes an index stock.

    Regards,
    KeeYes
    Tokyo
    Japan

    Kalidas Says……Wednesday…….10 November, 2010
    No comments. It is a sketchy report. MS does not appear to have made official statement.

    I have no entry point for Coal India because it does not have long history. I I would let the euphoria die down and let the stock face the vagaries first before knowing its pulse. Until such time I would stay out. There is lot of pre-post IPO hype and stories being thrown around. if you have some interest in this issue, buy stock worth Rs 1 lakh and stay put. I am not buying nor intend to buy it for another 6 months.

  203. Mahindra Satyam
    Sir,
    I have 4000 Satyam shares at an average price of 84 (CMP 88.4). I would like to take your advise exit price for this scrip in this rally. I would like to buy reliance power after selling this at good price. Please give an overview.
    Regards,
    Bhaskar Avadhanula,
    Huzurabad

    Kalidas Says……..Tuesday, 9 November,2010
    Wait until the stock goes to Rs. 160 minimum. Main target is 240 in 15 months.

    You would be stupid to swap to Reliance Power. It will make at the most 35% from current level in 18 months whereas Satyam will rise to Rs 240 in same time.

  204. HI Kalidasji,
    Can there be any correction in gold/silver now? I just bought only 1 kg silver in recent correction cause i didn’t have money and thought silver may correct more and i can add to my portfolio gradually which didn’t happen. When i have money now i am finding it hard to enter in silver seeing the recent highs. Should i enter now?
    Regards
    Ashish (Mumbai)
    India

    Kalidas Says……..Tuesday, 9 November,2010
    Buy always in correction. Everything corrects. Further, when you feel like buying buy with full conviction. If you wait for rs 1000 or correction, it is nothing. You do not pay any commission while buying Silver physically. In stocks you do pay commission service tax etc etc. When I gave target of rs 60,000 minimum and Rs 100,000 maximum when the silver was still between Rs 18000 to 21000, what makes difference whether you paid Rs 250 more or less. You have to have broader heart to make investment of any kind. If you are convinced buy with full conviction or just focus on your normal activity instead of investment.

    When the Silver is near about uS$ 31 make a trading sell.use equivalent Indian prices at that time. I do not follow Indian Rupee prices.

  205. Dear Sir.

    I had 5000 spicejet @ 60, I sold 3000 spicejet@ 90 to buy satyam @ 82. do you suggest to sell rest of spicejet and switch it to HPCL as it is around 16% down from its recent peak ?

    Amit
    Melbourne, Australia

    Kalidas Says……..Tuesday, 9 November,2010
    Good idea. Do it.

  206. Hello Sir,

    As per your advice I booked loss in Suzlon and Added more Satyam, now I am holding 6750. I do not want add more satyam. I do have 1.2 L left. . Can you please suggest any good one. I am thinking of adding Zee News as you recommended for others.

    Thank you for your time and advice.
    Jeny ,
    Kuwait.

    Kalidas Says……..Tuesday, 9 November,2010
    Buy 8000 Zee News and stay with it until it doubles.

  207. Anil ji,
    I have gold and silver worth 11000 USD (3 oz gold and 250 oz silver,my buy price was 7475 USD) in Kitco pool account. Do you suggest converting Kitco pool account gold to physical gold (or silver) by paying 3-4% extra and take delivery to hold everything in physical form?
    I have 500 grams of gold in India (Bought from MMTC) and 18 oz gold in USA (bought from APMEX) in physical form. I am on a profit of 40% in gold. Do you suggest to sell gold partially and switch to silver? Please advise.
     
    Thanks,
    Kishore,CA,USA.
    8th NOV 2010, 9:23 AM.

    Kalidas Says……..Tuesday, 9 November,2010
    No need to do anything. Stay with your position and location. Not to worry about KITCO pool account although I always prefer physical.

    No need to sell gold in favour of silver now because silver has advanced faster than anyone thought. The rise in Silver beyond $ 25.75 will trigger margin calls on world’s 3 largest banks – One in USA, One in UK, one in Germany and One in Switzerland. Some of them will be about to fail when the US, UK and Europe government will come out with bail out plan. Even IMF will come out of sale plan ahead of schedule just to save these banks.

  208. Hi Sir
    Can you please send me an email so that I can send email back to you. I just want to ask one question but not through this blog.
     
    Regards
    Manjunatha Shetty
    Bangalore India
    Nov 08 2010

    Kalidas Says……..Tuesday, 9 November,2010
    readers.kalidas@gmail.com

  209. Dear Sir,
    Please provide your views on PowerGrid FPO priced at 85-90 band with 5% discount for retail investors.
    That means it will be allotted at 85.5/- to the retailers. CMP of PowerGrid is 98.35 with 3.65/- correction today may be because of lower price band of FPO.
    Regards
    Sumit Kr. Agarwal, Kanpur, India

    Kalidas Says……..Tuesday, 9 November,2010
    No view on IPO. I am mainly secondary market player. Further, investment in power and utilities is meant only for dumb investors – not professionals. I never buy such stocks

  210. Gold Standard

    World bank president calls for a Gold Standard.

    http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/zoellick-calls-for-a-gold-standard-as-currency-wars-continue-to-cause-grief/405576

    Dear Sir,

    Please check the link and opine on the impact on Gold prices if this becomes a realty.

    regards
    Samir, mumbai

    Kalidas Says……..Tuesday, 9 November,2010
    Do not listen to him. He wants all emerging markets to support their currencies with gold, not developed countries. What he essentially says is that all developed countries will print more and more money, and will be sent to emerging market in the form of FII flow. So that investments of developed countries will be supported by gold and their paper money will find good outlet.

    The governments of Emerging market, like India, will fall prey to such statements and formulate policies accordingly. Even Manmohan Singh, often branded as visionary economist, is a poor bureaucrat, He is getting good name for doing nothing and survives by luck.

    Look at Obama visit. It is normal protocol of any Head of State to visit the capital first and see the Head of State of the host state. Obama went to Mumbai first, met Ratan Tata and his hotel first two days, and then went to New Delhi on last day. Stupid Manmohan! He is insulted, the entire nation is insulted and he look through his thick glasses caressing his white beard.

  211. Dear Sir,
    Thanks for prompt reply.
    can i get the proportion in which i can buy the stocks you recommended, i mean allocation of  12 Lakhs to stocks.
    DO you mean that i should repay the balance 38 lakhs or hold on to it & wait for fall to invest further.
    Sanjay Shah, Mumbai

    Kalidas Says……..Tuesday, 9 November,2010
    I write very simple English. When I said that invest Rs 12 lakhs, I did not ask you to adjust the balance Rs 38 lakhs to housing loan. If you want to liquidate anything, sell your house instead and adjust the loan from profit, not from capital. Stay liquid Rs 38 lakhs in bank deposits so that you can take advantage of opportunities when they come. Always be prepared in advance.

    If you adjust the housing loan now, and the crash comes – and it will be sooner than you think – then the banks would not be willing to lend even Rs 50% of present loan. The housing prices would also collapse wiping out your all gains. And you will have no money to invest into stock market when the opportunities scream at you.

    When you keep your money into bank deposits now, you will earn at least 7% interest, If you are paying 11% interest,, you lose only 4% against which you will have more freedom to invest at flick of the second

  212. Dear Sir,
    I am planning to buy a plot with house in Bangalore. When I compare the pricing of an apartment and a house in bangalore in same area, both seems to be more or less same. The same I have been observing in cities like Kochi. In cities like Dubai, the houses on plot are double the price of apartment of same size and area. Why in India apartments are more or less same price compared to villas in the same areas? For example a 3 bed room apartment in bangalore and 3 bedroom house in same areas is more or less same.
    Regards
    Thomas,Dubai,UAE.

    Kalidas Says……….Monday, 8 November, 2010
    Bangalore is a place where locals will prefer Home on independent plots than apartment. When you make an investment, show respect to the local people’s preferences.

    I do not know from where you got the information that Bangalori made almost same money both in Independent Home and Apartment. I know many friends who made fabulous money in buying home on plot of land rather than those who bought apartments.

    Apartment buyers in Bangalore are migrant population from neighboring states whereas Permanent Residents prefer to buy only Independent homes. Further, the monthly Maintenance cost in Bangalore is much higher in managed Apartments (Rs 3 to Rs 5 per sft) whereas the such cost for Independent Home owner is less than Rs 1/sft.

  213. Dear KalidasJi,

    Fist of all a very happy and prosperous Deepawali to you and all your family members.
    Ihave read your opinion that the property prices may correct in Banglore and this correction will be a cycle which might last for seven years atleast. Do you think the same view for property prices in Mumbai/Navi-Mumbai or do you think they may not correct substantially because of demand-supply gap ?
    Thanks.

    Abdul A Matte.(39 yrs.)
    Thane.
    08/11/2010.

    Kalidas Says……Monday, 8 November, 2010
    The prices are not rising in Bangalore as elsewhere in the country. Further, Bangalore is a place where locals will prefer Home on independent plots than apartment. When you make an investment, show respect to the local people’s preferences.

    I do not know from where you got the information that Bangalori made almost same money both in Independent Home and Apartment. I know many friends who made fabulous money in buying home on plot of land rather than those who bought apartments.

    Apartment buyers in Bangalore are migrant population from neighboring states whereas Permanent Residents prefer to buy only Independent homes. Further, the monthly Maintenance cost in Bangalore is much higher in managed Apartments (Rs 3 to Rs 5 per sft) whereas the such cost for Independent Home owner is less than Rs 1/sft.

    The correction in Navi Mumbai property prices will be less severe than in suburban Mumbai where home prices have been jacked up without substantial volume. Many builders will run away or bring down the shutter if the prices soften over 8% from current level. They are all highly leveraged players (at lest 3 times)

    Banaglore and Mumbai are different in character. Bangalore people prefer and buy Independent home more than apartments; In mumbai or Navi Mumbai the people buy apartments than independent hoomes

  214. Sir

    Due to large money printing in USA it is said that large amount of money will move into commodities like crude. If crude hits 100$ again it is very likely that OMCs like HPCL will decline in stock price.

    Last time crude hit 100+; hpcl was in a bear phase till it touched 178. Now though the government has freed the price of petrol they have said that if prices rise abnormally they will step in to make HPCL bear it’s share of subsidy again.

    In such a scenario of 100$ oil which is very likely thanks to QE2 money what is your future (6 months outlook on hpcl).

    I bought HPCL at 220;almost 2 years back and should i sell now to buy back later at reduced prices.

    I completley agree with your view that HPCL will be a multibagger for years to come but right now in the short term it might come down to 220 again is my fear.

    Princeofindia
    Abu Dhabi

    Kalidas Says……Monday, 8 November, 2010
    If you fear that much, sell 50% of HPCL and retain cash for the time being. What you will have is just floating profit, not capital.

    You presume that oil will touch $100; you are also presuming that governmet will back track in its oil policy. You do not even consider that in the event of rolling back to original policy of controlled prices, the government deficits will soar beyond control and there will be no solution to set right the imbalance except letting rupee weaker that might promote inflation and also rising interest rates.

    Read everywhere, including me, and take your own independent financial decision.

  215. Market in upswing.

    Dear sir,

    Based on your suggested sell call of15th-18th Oct , we have exited & waiting on cash for the correction , but looks like everybody is laughing at us & makin good  money in the rally .
    For how long will this upswing continu as we seem to be losing out this time again, just like in 2008.

    Need your guidance sir..

    Vinzi(Vinod)
    Mumbai.
    India

    Kalidas Says……Monday, 8 November, 2010
    When you make a decision, you do not look at what others would say, think or laugh. People always tell you that they made money, even if they did not, and never tell you when they lose a lot.

    Did your friends cry for you when you lost money? In that case, why do you care when they laugh at you when you sold and made real money for yourself? You run your family, they don’t.

    If you are regretting your decision to quit, get back in so that your personal ego is satisfied. Loss of extra profit is not loss of capital. In investment you have learn one thing – leave something on table if you want to make real money. If you wait for last dollar, you will end up losing your capital

  216. Sir, Wish you a very happy and prosperous new year.Sir what are  the reasons you think will drag down the property market in mumbai? Pls reply as i am unable to take a decision. Should I uy the property now as my delay in buying the property is costing me a lot.Thanks for your earlier advices.

    Kalidas Says……Monday, 8 November, 2010
    Rising interest rate, rising excessive speculation in Commodity markets in India, builders’ over enthusiasm to buy paper assets like TDR and lower off take in Mumbai

  217. Presently i have a mortgage loan of Rs. 90 Lakhs running @ 11% & i have 50 Lakhs in bank. What do u think i should do repay the loan or invest in stocks recommended by you like IOC, HPCL & others.
    Sanjay, Mumbai,

    Kalidas Says……Monday, 8 November, 2010
    Use at least Rs 12 lakhs now to invest in IOC, HPCL, MRPL, CAIRNS and BPCL in that order.

    The cumulative interest cost (33%) in 3 years @11% will be more than compensated by Dividend yield and over 120% appreciation minimum over same period. Your Net gain would be still over 85%

  218. GOLD or SILVER?
     
    Sir
    Based on your projected price of Gold and Silver, i see that Gold can potentially go up 4.59 times from CMP, whereas silver can go only up to 2.99 times
    1394 USD/oz –> 6400 USD/oz (4.59 times)
    26.76 USD/oz –>   80 USD/oz (2.99 times)
     
    I have so far purchased only Gold and dont have any silver holdings. As the prize of Silver has run up a lot recently, based on above calculations i feel it is not an opportune time to diversify into silver. I might as well buy Gold whenever i feel like investing in precious metals. Am i right in my conclusions?
     
    Thanks
    Bobby, Singapore

    Kalidas Says……Monday, 8 November, 2010
    Silver in short run will still outperform Gold. My target of $80 for silver is conservative and gold rather bullish anticipating fall in dollar value.

    However, major holders of gold, consumers in China and India, might turn seller if the gold prices double from current level. All want to buy properties because of late owning a property is a pre-qualification for getting a girl for marriage. The bride’s parents often dictate pre-condition for Groom to have owned property first.

    The physical silver has over 800 million ounces of short position by two prominent banks. There are also on going investigations against them by CFTC. Even gold is shorted but its secret so well guarded that even expers do not get clue.’

    SELL 25% of gold and switch to Silver (in correction).

  219. Hello Mr. Anil,
    I want to analyse Indian stocks based on various parameters related to both Fundamental and Technical analysis. I need your help to advice me some websites or tools which I can use for my analysis.
    Thanks,
    Anup Maheshwari
    New Jersey, USA, Nov 6, 2010

    Kalidas says…Sunday, November 07, 2010
    The websites and books devoted to developed market do not work for the emerging markets like India. Accounting and Tax treatments also make lot of difference, so also the timing and time zone.

    There are hundreds of books and websites which guide the investors and inform them of various investment tools.

    The culture also plays important pal. for example, the Investors in India go mad if some bonus shares are announced or about to be announced. Their argument is if the stock is trading at Rs 300 and the company announces 1:1 Bonus, then the investors are rewarded with 1 free shares with the blessings of the management. In reality, it is a price neutral event. If the bonus shares are issued, the number of shares so issued increases the outstanding shares to that extent, and the EPS also come down proportionately. It does not make much difference whether an Investor holds 100 Reliance shares at Rs 1000 or 200 Reliance shares of Rs 500 after 1:1 Bonus.

    US accounting is different than Indian system of accounting. This is why Mahindra Satyam had to delist its ADR from NYSE and shift to OTC.

    Yes. you can get very good knowledge by studying related books and websites. The choice is so myriad that it is difficult to pick one or two. If you possess basic knowledge of accounting, and have good common sense, you have won half the battle. Almost all experts call themselves professionals including those from Citigroup, JP Morgan, UBS, Merril Lynch, Morgan Stanley etc and yet they failed and almost bankrupted themselves. They do not know their own house, and they go on advising the investors world over. And the people believe them.

    Every investor want himself to be cheated. He does not want to make money in real sense. This is why he conducts himself in such manner that he gets eventually cheated or deceived and takes the comforts in the sentense ” Oh, it was the market!”

    Go to Bloomberg store or some specialized stores in finance such as NYSE Publications. They are costly publications – I never bought them. Otherwise make a habit of reading daily financial newspapers like Investor’s Daily(USA), Wall Street Journal (USA)and Financial Times (UK) and in India Business Standard, Hindu Business Line, Economic Times and watch some business TV Channels like Bloomberg (more authentic but less sexy), CNBC, and many in India. There is no fasttrack solution.

  220. sir,
    I shorted coal india taking cue from your view about the stock. Burnt my fingers yet again. after reading your comments on coal india I felt so convinced by the logic that you posed that i shorted. but luck wasnt on my side and lost a neat sum. Again reminds me of what you told me about trading…(The prost….. story). So i hope to call it a day and end to trading as well. though i have sold off around 40% of my holdings, shall now wait to correct. Your logic about coal india did not work this time. what could have caused the scrip to rise to such a level on the first day itself?
    regards
    vivard
    kerala
    india.

    Kalidas says…Sunday, November 07, 2010
    If you want to trade or day trade, stop reading me and follow other experts who work on technicals and advise the watchers/followers. Almost entire CNBC Awaz is filled with such recom.

    In trading logic does not work. In extreme bull and bear markets too logic takes backseat. At the moment, billions of dollars printed in USA are finding shore in India just ahead of Obama visit.

    The response to Coal India for first 3 days was not so great. However, it was realized that this might become weighty BSE/NSE Index stock that resulted in heavy buying. Let me tell you, such frenzy buying was not normal. But it was there.

    I did not ask you to short Coal India or any other stock. I do not advise the traders or day traders. I have told readers number of times. Trading is simply different ball game than Investment.

    It seems that you are in speedy train to recover the money as fast as you lost them. It does not work that way. Money is built up slowly but destroyed with one massive go.

    Since you are very much into trading, I suggest you to leave this blog and read other day traders who are thronging CNBC, NDTV, Bloomerg and host of other local sites. Judging by their popularity, they may be good.

  221. Dear Sir

    BON VOYAGE: Happy and Safe Journey to USA. Your kids and GrandKids are eagerly waiting for your arrival. 

    Shiva
    Bangalore
    India

  222. Dear Sir,
    How do you interpret open interest with respect to sentiment. For ex : At what level of open interest can we assume that the market is dangerously poised. I have seen that in the past 36-40 mil (2-3 years before) is the upward limit but wont this number change based based on the participation in the markets.
    I hope my question is clear if not I will detail it further.
    Warm Regards
    Vyas, Bangalore, India

    Kalidas says…Saturday, November 06, 2010
    Open Interest is dependent on liquidity of the instrument and revival of interest on those counters. There are no fixed rules or criteria. NIFTY is most liquid instrument, so its open interest may be high.

    There is a rule of thumb to determine whether OI is dangerously poised. If the OI doubles in last 7 days, then it may be subject to correction. What is dangerous is also relative. Higher OI for stocks recovering from multi month low may be indicative of higher level of activity in cash segment. The stock may go higher. Similarly, when the stock is in downtrend and the OI is rising (say short positions) then it might lead the stocks lower.

    Please remember that there are always equal number of buyers and sellers. If the price rise, then the buyers are willing to bid more; and if the price falls, then the buyers are generally in secondary bids and the sellers are in primary queue.

  223. Sir,

    Happy Diwali & New Year!

    1) Requesting your thoughts on Essar Shipping’s (BSE: 500630, NSE: ESSARSHIP) proposed demerger http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/essar-shipping-to-complete-demerger3-4-months_495194.html
    Will the ‘unlocking of value’ prove beneficial to its promoters only (Mr. Ruai’s track record points to this) or will it trickle down to its retail share-holders?

    2) Pls. try to answer my earlier query (Agriculture related, date of posting 4th Oct’10), a brief answer is all I want.

    Regards,
    Ashish Dandekar
    Doha, Qatar

    Kalidas says…Saturday, November 06, 2010
    Unable to comment because I am not seized of all facts relating to demerger – that is, terms of demerger, swap ratio, etc. Until those details are known (send me link if you have), I can not comment fully.

    On the face of it, it should be a good move. The port operation is disproportionately large compared to shipping part, so it makes sense to bifurcate the activities based on volume. The existing ESSAR SHIPPING holders should get some free shares of Essar Port because the present entity comprises both – shipping and port. It should enhance the value. Port related shares will outperform Shipping related shares.

    Whether the promoters benefit or the ordinary shareholders, it is a million dollar question. Both will be in same boat, so nothing untoward is seen in normal course. But we are talking about “chor India and Chor Ruia”. I do not want to analyze the fraudulent minds.

    Your other query will be answered later because I have to get hold of it. give me a few days for comprehensive reply.

  224. ANNOUNCEMENT

    I will be moving out from my current location in Mumbai for good. Mumbai will no longer be my future destination.

    I may not be able to answer Readers’ Post in time. There will be time lag. Kindly do not post queries until Wednesday (10/11).

    Anil Selarka (Kalidas)
    6/11/2010

  225. Dear Kalidasji,

    Recently you were recommending NOCIL to one reader, could you please brief the reasons / fundamentals of this stock that prompted you to recommend?

    Regds,

    Satheesh Nair, Taiz, Yemen.

    Kalidas says…Saturday, November 06, 2010
    1. NOCIL is largest Rubber Chemicals Manufactrurers in India. Rubber prices have started going up, so NOCIL could be the beneficiary.
    2. NOCIL is also a debt free company.
    3. I have seen news on TV (CNBC or Bloomberg, I do not remember) which gave short message that IOC (Indian Oil Corporation) took 25% stake in the company. However, I could not locate the news in print media or over the net. Normally, if a company takes stake in excess of 15%, it has to make general offer. I do not know how could IOC take 25% stake without igniting general offer? Further, IOC can not be satisfied with just 25% stake – it is too small for them. The stake sale stories are in vogue for over 7 years, but nothing concrete emerged. (except that its petrochemical assets were sold at premium that helped company to pay off the debt).
    4. The stock is reasonably priced. With end product price on strong rise, it is expected that best days of NOCIL are revisiting.
    5. It is a dividend paying company, though amount is small (3%). It is still good, if not very good. When almost defunct company comes back to dividend paying stage, it shows tremendous improvement.
    6. Small tactical position is suggested. The stock is in the bottom rung, so risk element is small with high potential reward. At the moment the stock is meant for long term investors with at least 2 years horizon.

  226. Kalidas ji,
     
    I have 199 COALINDIA on IPO allotment price of 232.75 (Retail). CMP is 348 and have already fetched 50% in less than two trading sessions. I read somewhere in this forum, you advised to sell any scrip if it rallies more than 30% within a week’s time. Is it time to sell this scrip or hold for long term. The company has cash reserves of 43000 crores and planning to buy mines overseas. Not sure if it becomes a index stock soon attracting FII funds and provides handsome dividends.
     
    Regards,
    KeeYes
    Tokyo
    Japan

    Kalidas says…Saturday, November 06, 2010
    It is the Fourth or fifth largest stock by market cap. This is why it will be BSE/NSE Index stock within a few months. It will carry almost 7% weighting. Reliance and ONGC weighting will go down, so these stocks will suffer later.

    Because of the index potential, the stock has gained already with FII funds. However, GOI holding in this stock being over 85%, it will not qualify for inclusion in Morgan Stanley Capital Index – which list only those stocks with substantial free float – usually over 50%

    Nevertheless, it will be classic stock to own whenever one takes bullish view on Indian index.

    I am not counting with its cash reserve nor do I count the cost of acquisition because India by far is the cheapest mining source even today. They have more opportinities at home than overseas.

    Since you have made over 40% in 2 sessions, it is wise to take profit but retain only 10% in portfolio so that you do not miss out this stock in buying later in correction.

  227. HAPPY DIWALI 2010
    Sir,
    You are like DIYA who burns for lightening the lives of others. keep it up, Sir. Wish you and your family a very bright and prosperous Diwali 2010.
    Incase you are in Mumbai on 6th & 7th Nov. , i would like to meet you .

    Regards

    arun
    Mumbai, India

  228. Shree Ashta Vinayak
    Sir,
    Happy Dipawali to you and your family.

    Please update us about shree ashta vinayak (CMP 49.7), whether to exit in this rally or to stay with it. If we have to sell, what is the best price to sell. Results are on 13th Nov.
    Thanks and Regards,
    Krishna,
    Hyd

    Kalidas says…Friday, November 05, 2010
    See what reception Golmal 3 gets when it gets released today. Give 2 or 3 days and sell ahead of 13th November. The stock has advanced smartly in last 6 to 7 sessions so any good result would be discounted. Further, I do not expect exceptional profits during this quarter. I think enough money has been made already.

  229. Happy diwali sir ji,
    and my best wishes for your whole family

  230. Dear Kalidas

    Why are you avoiding my questions? Are you angry with me for having disagreed with your sell call.

    I am also still awaiting your mail about your book which you said you will email to me last month.

    Regards
    princeofindia
    Abu Dhabi

    Kalidas says…Friday, November 05, 2010
    What is your question? I am constantly travelling between Mumbai, Amravati, Hong Kong for quite some time and also busy selling some properties in the process. I do not have internet connection all the time, so need to go to some cafe to reply the post.

    Disagreement with my SELL call has nothing to do with my not replying your questions. May be I missed it. I never want “Yes Man” hanging around me. This is a free forum where one can agree or diagree. There is nothing personal against you.

    Regarding book, I had some problem with the payment through Pay Pal via website. There was some glitch due to which I did not reply, If you want to pay in India, I will send you email for payment instructions. Check your Inbox tomorrow morning.

  231. Sir
    Sometime ago you mentioned that BIRLA POWER SOLUTIONS would be a good buy below Rs 1.8. The CMP of this stock is at Rs 1.53
    Is it worth buying now, and if yes how much can one invest in this stock

    Thanks
    Bobby, Singapore

    Kalidas says…Friday, November 05, 2010
    I need to examine why the stock has been coming down all the time. I understand that there were some bonus issues too which brought down the price ex-bonus basis. In any case, I need to check and I am quite tied up in moving from existing place in Mumbai on disposal of properties.

  232. Respected Kalidas Sir,

    Wishing you and your family a Happy Diwali and great times ahead.

    Regards
    Suraj
    Panchkula
    India

  233. Dear Kalidas Sir,

    Wish you and your family A Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2010.

    Kind Regards,
    Prakash
    Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

  234. Thanks for explaining in detail. I believed it as they always explicitly claim the amount to be investable cash, not including tangible assets. Devil is in the details. You have the knowledge to figure out from the balance sheet, while I don’t. Obama seem to have started sounding more buisness friendly, probably due to the growing influnce of Republicans.
    Quoting rest of article, just for info :-
    Among the most outspoken about the issue is Cisco CEO John Chambers, who recently said his San Jose company has piled up a bunch of cash overseas and would like to invest it in the U.S., but Cisco would take too big a tax hit under the current rules.
    A couple of days ago, an opinion piece about repatriation of profits that Chambers co-wrote with Safra Catz, co-president of Oracle, appeared in the Wall Street Journal. Chambers and Catz contend that U.S. companies can help boost the economy if only the U.S. would reduce the tax on profits earned overseas to somewhere around 5 percent. They say other developed nations tax repatriated earnings at a rate of 0 percent to 2 percent.

    The official U.S. corporate tax rate is 35 percent. Mercury News examined the tax rates of Silicon Valley’s biggest companies, including Google, and found that many of them were paying considerably less. For example, the Mountain View company’s 2009 tax rate was 22.2 percent, HP’s 18.6 percent, and Apple’s 29 percent. O’Brien wrote: “The biggest strategy across the board is to keep the bulk of the cash that they earn from foreign operations overseas, where they pay lower foreign income taxes and little or no U.S. taxes.”

    Regards,
    Aby Philip
    Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Friday, November 05, 2010
    Thanks.

  235. Dear Sir,
    Wishing you, your family and your extended family (your readers) a very happy Diwali and Prosperous New Year.
    We are very fortunate to know you as a person and as a Guru. Very few people do the service which you are doing even at this age. I don’t have words to express my Gratitude.
    May God Bless You.
    Warm Regards
    Vivek Dhariwal, Gurgaon, India, 5th Nov, 2010.

  236. My view was based  on the many media reports since early 2010, including the recent one pasted below from Moody, reported by Reuters. If you believe that these figures are made up, I’d trust you atleast as much as Reuters, if not more, except with csco where I get to see things closely.
    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oct 26, 2011
    U.S. companies hoarding almost $1 trillion cash: Moody’s
    U.S. companies are hoarding almost $1 trillion in cash but are unlikely to spend on expanding their business and hiring new employees due to continuing uncertainty about the strength of the economy, Moody’s Investors Service said

    Cisco Systems (CSCO.O) has the largest cash balance, at $39.86 billion, while Microsoft (MSFT.O) is second with $36.79 billion, Moody’s said. Google (GOOG.O) has the third-largest balance with $30.06 billion, followed by Oracle (ORCL.O) with $23.64 billion and Ford Motor Co (F.N) at $21.89 billion.

    Technology companies held the most cash as a sector, at $207 billion, followed by pharmaceuticals with $124 billion, energy at $105 billion, and consumer products with $101 billion, Moody’s said.

    Regards,
    Aby Philip
    Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Friday, November 05, 2010
    The question boils down to what is cash? Is the investment holding a cash item? If that was so, almost all sub prime related derivatives would have been cash, and it was so treated, with the result that when it was busted, there was no cash around forcing FED to print the dollars in trillioins.

    Cash should be a free cash without any liabity. When a company raises a loan, and gives its Fixed Deposit as collateral, such FD though cash in the books of the company is the written down liability of the borrower. If he defaults, his FD is forfeited.

    Similarly, when you borrow to buy the stocks on margin basis, the Investment may be treated as cash but in reality it is not. When the stocks are sold, the liability thereagainst is adjusted. They were earmarked cash.

    I did not say that CISCO figures were wrong. They had $34 billions of investment which when combined with the free cash of $ 4.7 billions, would come to anywhere to $ 40 billions quoted by many as cash. I did see the CISCO balance sheet before replying to you.

    A cash is one which is already in free currency form or one that can be converted into currency within short time, usually 3 days, but often the analysts treat the item as cash if it is less than 12 months old.

    No corporate sticks to the cash because they are non yielding at least in America now. If those cash of $ 2 trillions reportedly held by corporate are the result of the liability created to generate cash, then it is not cash.

    When the Corporate America based on 33% tax rate pays $ 300 billions of taxes, it means that its profit would have been around $ 1 trillion. This profit was generated by revenue turnover in which the cash or credit turns over every 2 to 3 months (more in India). That is, from the moment the sale is generated until the proceeds realized in cash. There is no way Corporate America would have $ 2 trillions cash parked abroad. If America had so much of free cash, there would not have been cash crunch and the financial crisis.

    Moody is therefore simply bluffing. It is the mouthpiece of US Treasury and FED to spread lies so that the panick does not grip the market again. They have wasted interest, so I never pay attention to what Moody or S&P says. They are bloody liars.

  237. Dear Kalidasji,
    I have, not by choice but now by the habit glued to your blog and nastalgic (Spelled deliberately rather than nostalgic) comments like what you wrote to Renu Khanna.
    It’s not FED’s maternity home, it is the gutter where this operation is conducted.
    Take the quiz:- http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/223.cfm
    See Question 4, I was totally zapped by the revelation. This can be helpful for many on the blog.
    Dongre, India, Nov 5/2010

    Kalidas says…Friday, November 05, 2010
    I disagree with the answer under Question 4. Silver is mined in far larger quantity than Gold. further, Silver is bye-product of Copper. Hindustan Copper and Sterlite Industries produce silver.
     

  238. Hi Sir
    Wish you and family a Very Happy Diwali and a Prosperous New Year.
    Regards
    Ramandeep Singh
    Amritsar

  239. Dear Sir,
    May God Bless  you and Your family on this Diwali day as  well as always with joy, health, happiness, wealth,prosperity and your special Trait (WISDOM).
     
    Regards
    Sajith, chennai, Nov 5th2010
     

  240. Dear Anilji,
    Wish you and your family Happy Dipawali.
    May Godess Laxmi bestowed you wealth and health.
    Regards,
    Awadhesh

  241. Hi Sir
    I need to ask something which I do not want put it under the blog.  Could you please email me so that I can reply to you.
     
    Appreciate your help
    Regards
    Manjunatha Shetty
    Bangalore India
    Sep 05 2010

  242. Hi Sir,
    Happy deepavalli to you and your family.
     
    Regards
    Manjunatha Shetty
    Bangalore India

  243. Kalidasji,
     
    Wishing you a happy and prosperous diwali. Please extend my greetings to your entire family.
     
    Thank you for being so kind hearted.
     
    Regards
    Vyas Nambiar, Bangalore, India

  244. Dear Kalidasji,
    Happy Deepawali to you and your family.
    Endorsement to your earlier article “Let Rupee Rise”.
    This is from Thailand:- ” Thailand Thrives in Currency Squalls” – Despite the Thai baht’s 11 percent surge against the dollar this year, the country’s export sector is doing surprisingly well. http://www.cnbc.com/id/40002063/
    Also, I am considering very fortunate to know you thru this blog. I am enclosing an image snapshot, name of the file truly reflects what I want to convey.
    Dongre, India, 5 Nov/2010

    Kalidas says…Friday, November 05, 2010
    Thanks

  245. Wish you and your family a very Happy Deepavali and a Happy and Prosperous New Year!
    Suresh Krishna
    Thane, India

  246. Dear Anil Sir,
    Wishing you & your family HAPPY DIWALI & hope one of the most memorable NEW YEAR in your life.
    Once again I am confessing that what ever knowledge that I gained from you is priceless in respect to any financial gain through your investment guidance.
    We all appreciate your effort & humbleness  that you are putting in answering all the questions directed to you.
    Hope you will continue to enlighten all of us going forward.
    Thanks.
     
    Parag
    Surat
     

  247. Dear Sir
    As per your comments ( response to Renu khanna…) whole QE2 amount would be spent to feed the Poor US citizens for next one year ( 60Billion USD per month for unemployment compensation+ food coupon subsidy X 12 months> 600Billion) to avoid riots. :-)))
    If so what about buying of treasury bonds and all other bad assets/bonds for which actually this QE2 is printed? Do you think QE3 or QE4 are in line with some other nomenclature ? Do you think Headless FED would print 5 to 6 trillion USD to take care of massive subprime losses you have indicated in your book instead of allowing those banks ( citi/BOA etc) to go bankrupt?
    Shiva
    Bangalore
    India

  248. Respected Sir

    Please answer my query on 4th.

    And also advise on which companies will benefit if crude oil rises like it is rising. Also those benefit from commodity(metal) rises.

    with regards

    Renu Khanna
    New Delhi, India 

    Kalidas says…Friday, November 05, 2010
    CRUDE OIL RISE: All producers benefit. In India, there are very few – ONGC, CAIRNS, ESSAR OIL (partly), VIDEOCON IND (Partly)and RIL (Gas producers). ONGC, CAIRNS AND RIL are major beneficiaries.

    Difficult to say about metals. To me all metals are expensive. I do not recommend metals on medium to long term,. In short term, SAIL, Jindal and TISCO benefit, but they are already on high. I am negative on metals except Copper

  249. HAPPY YEAR ENDING AND HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR

    I wish all readers Happy Year Ending (Happy Deepavali) and Happy and prosperous New year.

    May God give you wisdom to protect the wealth and increase it by careful planning and execution.

    It is difficult for me to acknowledge greetings of individual readers and I promise that all messages are being read as always, and I feel delighted at the increasing mass of best wishes from the readers. That is the greatest wealth I have ever generated.

    It will be my untiring efforts to guide the readers to greater glory in days and the year to come.

    Please convey my greetings to every member of your family including your spouse who has been great strength behind you.

    Anil Selarka (Kalidas)
    5 Nov, 2010

  250. Dear Sir

    WISH YOU AND YOUR FAMILY HAPPY ,PROSPEROUS and SAFE DIWALI

    Shiva
    Bangalore
    India

  251. Dear Sir,
    Wish  a Happy diwali to You and Your family
    Regards,
    Rajmohan
    Pointe Noire, Congo

  252. Dear Kalidasji,
    I am a NRI in dilemma. I have around $160,000 in cash in USA. I was looking forward to buy a plot of land in Bangalore for self use if I move back to India. I have been looking for properties for past 3 months but did not find anything ideal. In those three months land prices in India have been jacked up by 10% by the real estate agents. US dollar also lost another 6%. Looks like my indecision in closing a deal or transferring USD to my NRE account in India is costing me. What is the best course of action for me? I want to buy a plot in India for about 40-50 lakhs and invest the rest in Indian equities. Should I transfer all my USD to INR now?
    Thanks,
    Hari, San Jose, California

    Kalidas says…Friday, November 05, 2010
    NEVER EVER THINK that you lost oppportunity due to indecision or otherwise. The opportunities are daily affairs and they come and go. It is for your pick them up when presented.

    I am glad that you could not locate the property in Bangalore. It is a blessings in disguise. Wait for a few months more and you will see why I have been saying this.

    Yes, you were not in control in selecting or buying the property in Bangalore. I talked to my friend in Bangalore who lives on Whitfield Road who opined that he finds difficult to locate buyers or even offer his flat on good rental basis.

    Do not be guided by the developer’s action in jacking up the prices. They always do even if 70% of flats remain unsold. it is the secondary market which inform you the real situations.

    While visiting India, you have to buy the property quickly even if it costs about 2% to 5% more because your cost of visiting is would otherwise cost you more than what you would end up paying higher price.

    Regarding Rupee, you were in control, may be not in finding property. you could have converted to Rupee long time back whenever there was transitory rise in its value (iut becomes weaker against dollars). You may convert to Rupees progressively.

    When the market corrects during this time, the rupee will fall drastically because same FII would want to repatriate the dollar to their home country. If at all you want to convert to rupee now, do it in small instalments.

    You will find good property, good location and good price in a few months. When the God denied you the action to buy the property, he had some inner message – Do not fritter away your life savings. I am there to protect you. Just Wait.

    And you will need to wait.

  253. Dear Kalidasji,
    Happy and A Prosperous Diwali to You & Your Family Members….
    Regards,
    Ghanshyam
    Surat
    India
    4th Nov 2010

  254. Last month there were a few messages exchanged as to how someone lost money following Kalidasji’s advice. I thought of posting a strong reply like other followers here but i held myself back.
    Now , on the eve of diwali when i look at my portfolio here’s what i see:
    Uco Bank : +172%
    Spicejet : +62%
    LICHF   : +90%
    Petronet : +75%
    GSPL : +66%
    MRPL : +8%  – new entrant
    IOC : +7% – new entrant.
    RNRL :  -30%
    I guess the above details says it all. His advices are good, take it or leave it & equity comes with associated risk. I feel happy and proud that i get his advice in the form of prompt replies & well thought out. what more can i ask from an unseen stranger!. He even manages to apologise – “Sorry for the omission”- i read somewhere. Hats off!
    Kalidasji,
    Wishing you & your family a very happy, healthy & prosperous year ahead. Happy diwali !
    Knowingly &/ unknowingly you are lighting up many minds here through your blog. My very best wishes for you and your family.
    Thanks
    Raghav
    Bangalore

  255.  
    Respected Kalidasji,
    The much awaited QE2 happened as expected and Bernanke is printing currency almost $1T. This is stated fact but he may print much more. The following links are very much interesting, which you might have been observed.
    http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20101103DeC_cftc.html
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/king-world-news-confirms-goldman-sachs-has-been-long-gold-years-states-2550-silver-margin-ca
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/11/3_Jim_Sinclair_-_Gold_Bottomed,_Dollar_Index_Headed_to_56.html
    The first indicated tightening of silver market and another 255 days are there for JPMorgan/HSBC to close their shorts and survive.
    The second indicated GS is long on Gold (surprising to me) and Silver crosses 25.51 by one hour, margin calls would be activated and silver market appears to be on blowing stage. At the time writing silver touched $25.70/ounce.
    The third one by Jim Sinclair stated in the interview that market is on “unchartered waters” and dollar against dollar index has to fall to 56. The above quotation words are stolen from Sri Kalidas and dollar fall to 56 was stated by you more than a year ago. The world – pl listen Sh.Kalidas.
    You are prophetic in analyzing the situation; you are concerned about the debacle of USA to the world, offered clear solutions to the Govt and advised your follower’s valuable suggestions. You are valuable to all of us.
    I am very thankful to you for putting a wide canvass where scope for wisdom survives and shines too.
    WISH YOU AND YOUR FAMILY A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS DEEPAVALI.
    Regards,
    V.S.Kumar, Jorhat
     

  256. Dear Kalidas Sir,
    I am having Resurgere Mines & Minerals India Ltd. 3000quantity at Rs. 3.50 and CMP is Rs. 1.95.
    I am holding it from past two months.
    Since you have mentioned to sell 95% of entire equity, shall Hold or sell.
    I am ready to wait for long term.
    Already I am into 50% loss.

    -Shivu Kumar,
    Raichur, Karnatka, India
    4th Nov 2010, 8:51PM

  257. Ruchi Infra and Evinix and MRPL,HPCL

    Dear Kalidasji,

    Wanted to check with you if I should buy more of these shares, I have 2000 Ruchi Infra @ 36.8  CMP Rs 33.5and 17000 Evinix @ 3.35 CMP Rs 2.8, so that my average is reduced.
    Ruchi Infra moved around 10% today , so may be I am delayed in asking the question for Ruchi Infra.

    Also wanted to check with you on MRPL, it has moved to Rs 87 after quite some time , it moved around 5% today from Rs. 83.5 to 87.
    Do you think that it should now move to Rs 92 in the next few days as per your logic of numbers.
    Also bought some 500 HPCL today at price of Rs 485 , which is the CMP, do you expect it to move up , like BPCL and MRPL, this stock is down around 18% from its peak of Rs 555 it made around a month back.

    Wish you and your family a very Happy and prosperous Diwali.

    Thanks

    Rahul Bondre
    Mumbai India
    4th Nov 2010

    Kalidas says…Thursday, November 04, 2010
    Np need to enlarge position on Ruchi Infra or Evinix which is a very small value stock. It can cover 20% even in one day. Leave these dogs in doghouse for a while.

    MRPL will move to 92 easily after consolidating at around Rs 80 for quite some time. It looks to me it is heading into Rs 120 area within next 3 months. It will too early to sell even at 92.

    Other positions are okay to me.

  258. Dear kalidasa,
    The tissue paper easing by the fed has caught the NRI’s in a dilemma. With large dollar inflows, the rupee is bound to appreciate (which indirectly reduces our net income) & any investments during this period of uncertainty (with bubbles seen written all over) is risky. The only option is Local account FD, which is again taxable & the net yield even though good, is killed by inflation. Right now, myself sitting on sidelines, with only investment in M Satyam (30% of portfolio). During this period should I enter defensive scripts like NTPC & ITC or just sit tight as you say like a Tiger & wait for the right opportunity – whatever be the time period.
    Thanks & Regards
    Mohan
    Qatar 

    Kalidas says…Thursday, November 04, 2010
    I am not able to appreciate your question. If Rupee strengthens, your gain in $ terms is more, not less. Further, local FD gets anywhere 8% to 8/5% before TDS and 7.2% to 7.65% after TDS. which is quite substantial.

    No one consciously counts yield after inflation which is an abstract figure. If the interest yield is less, it is more than compensated in $ terms due to over 8% appreciation in the local unit. Your Net Yield after Rupees appreciation will be over 15.5% in one year.

    Never bother about taxes when it comes to yield. See the Net Yield after taxes. You should not bother about taxes over which you have no control.

    You may take some position in GAIL, SAIL, RIL, IOC and IDBI Bank. Yes, if the market corrects severely, they too will lose over 20% of stock value be they are bargain now or not.

    The opportunities abound every day. But when the markets are in gurglish mood, lot of noises are heard. The patient investor is more like a Saint or Sadhu. They wait and wait and gets rewarded. Look at Gold, it has shot up by $40 in a day. A day is not far away when it shoots up by $ 100 in a day.
     

  259. Hi Kalidasji,
    Most of the media had covered the points from the high profile CEO John chambers that the tax rates should be brought down so that about $2 trillion corporate money parked outside the US can be. And we are openly lobbying for the same. Cisco and Google are two of the biggest with about $40B cash each.  Hope you know that John’s influence in the industry and in the Republican party. His comments received much support from corporate america. Now that Republican are in a much stronger position, need to see if there will be a gridlock or a more business friendly approach from Obama. I’m expecting the later.
    Regards,
    Aby Philip
    Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Thursday, November 04, 2010
    I do not know who invented the theory that $2 trillions of Corporate America is lying outside America. The total tax collected from corporate America used to be $ 300 billion in a whole year. How could $ 2 trillions could be collected and lying outside America, which is nearly 6 times annual tax collection by Uncle Sam?

    I am talking about $ 300 billions during boom time. For the last 2 years, US corporates have lost income substantially with the result that the total tax collection might be lower by 20% at least, that is, upto $ 240 billions

    Further, 33 Million Americans have lost the job, that is, gross wages of about US$ 1.3 trillions. If you take 25% as taxable rate, the loss of taxes due to unemployment is anywhere about $ 375 billions. In short, there is a giant hole of over $ 435 billions in tax collection in USA annually, that is, $ 1.3 trillions collectively over last 3 years.

    Again, US taxes worldwide income. There is no way the Corporate America could save the taxes over $ 2 trillions and parked overseas.

    If at all, CISCO holds $ 40B in cash, it will all be in United States, not outside. I am also not sure whether CISCO holds that many cash. Unless you count “Investment’ as cash, the real cash holding of CISCO is just over $ 4.7 billions.

  260. Kalidasji,

      RICO Suit Filed Against HSBC And JPMorgan.  Zero edge says As this case is also seeking class action status for the class, readers who wish to join this particular case may apply to do so at the following link

    __http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rico-suit-filed-against-hsbc-and-jpmorgan-silver-market-manipulation

    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India

  261. Respected Sir

    Thanks for providing clear and honest answer. I am little nervous as I am riding in a bus which is going in opposite direction. Can you please suggest two or three fundamental proven stock which can provide 20% plus return from here on in 6-12 month time frame ( yes they may not exception for market melt down if happen in between).

    I always appreciate your vision and ability to see beyond imagination, the market may or may not work accordingly due to several effect but the decisions is always better than indecisions.

    God Bless you and your family, Wish you n your family A very happy and prosperous deepawali.

    With Regards

    Renu Khanna
    New Delhi, India

  262. Dear Sir,
    I have the following stocks about which I am little confused to take any decision.
     
    ILFS(ILandFS Transportation Networks) – BSE-533177, NSE-IL&FSTRANS – 91@258.00, CMP – 320
    NHPC – 713@36, CMP – 31.4
    RCOM – 100@324, CMP – 183
    RPOWER – 250@183, CMP – 165
    RNRL – 2100@68, CMP – 41
     
    Should I sell those and invest 50% of the proceeds to Satyam and Zee News and another 50% retain cash and invest in IOC/HPCL/MRPL in case of correction.
     
    I have already invested 50 HPCL@325, 150 IOC@394, 425 MRPL @50.00, 600 Satyam @99, 1500 ZeeNews@14.23
     
    Thanks,
    -Santosh, Bangalore, India

  263. Kalidas ji,
     
    What is your view on the mid term election outcome in the US.
    I don’t have a broader view like you but to my small mind, I summarize my thoughts as follows.
     
    Though Republicans are seen as more rightist favoring Americans, history says that they are more willing to open their markets to foreigners and encouraged outsourcing, increase in H1B visas & migrants.
     
    The traditionally so called Liberals are more conservative and they have taken huge efforts to bring back industry to the US by curbing outsourcing and levying taxes on firms that operate offshore.
     
    But the recent rise of far right wing Tea Party movement is supporting Republicans who originally favored moving Jobs outside the states and with Republican majority in the Congress, they can curtail any motion in the Congress that they feel is anti-american including so called economic reforms which was originally initiated by Bush but currently followed by Obama.
     
    Do you thing, such a stalemate for the next 2 years is going to halt any recovery in the US and prolong the depression which can eventually bring down the stock markets around the world?
     
    Japan, one of the earlier staunch supporters of the US is also in bad shape with down sized economy, bullying by Chinese and then now Russians on territory disputes. The sops announced by Japan for eco cars, appliances after Lehman shock is ending by Nov 2010 which can bring down the sales of appliances, cars, new eco houses to more than 40% which in turn can severely affect the industry.
     
    I appreciated if you can enlighten us with your broad wisdom.
     
    Happy Deepavali
     
    Regards,
    KeeYes
    Tokyo
    Japan

    Kalidas says…Thursday, November 04, 2010
    No views on such political development. They are market and economy neutral. in Hindi there is an idiom “Bhoot Gaya to palit ayaa”. that is “Out goes the Ghost, in comes the Devil”

    The fact of the matter is no one, I repeat no one in America, be he Republican, Liberal, Conservative or Democrat knows exactly what to do under present circumstances. The whole nation in on “auto pilot” like India has been for over 60 years.

    Only this Kalidas knows who provided clear solution in his book “Sub Prime Resolved”. Unless the interest rates rise to over 18% minimum in United States, there will be no recovery. Not Zero % interest rates, but double digit interest rates foster growth. Where is the growth today (interest rates in bracket) – Brazil (11%), India (8%), Indonesia (10%) South Africa (6%), Australia (6%) etc etc. What is the common factor – higher interest rates. Now look at the developed countries – USA (0.25%), UK (1%) Europe (0.5%) Canada (0.5%), Japan (0%) etc. What is the common factor in these low growth countries – near zero interest rates.

    When the interest rates double up, it will cause severe and permanent demise of derivatives. That is when the real fund based and delivery based trades take over and that is when the real business will flourish.

    When it happens, the printed money paper will not be good enough to be used even as “toilet paper”.

    I am therefore staying with only gold and silver. I have quadrupled and quntipled (400% to 500% profit) my money already in last 10 years, that is, @ 40% to 50% per year or annualized, and I am all set to double the gains in near future. The momentum has developed at slower but sure pace, but it will gallop in days to come.

    So when I can make huge money in gold and silver, why to invest in paper or paper currencies? I can buy any number of paper currency later by selling gold and silver. I am waiting patiently.

  264. ANNOUNCEMENT – New Gold ETF in Hong Kong

    A new gold fund – The Value gold ETF (Hong Kong stock code: HK 3081 was launched recently jointly promoted by Ping An Insurance Group Company and Regional Funds Provider  – VALUE PARTNERS – a trusted name in Hong Kong.

    The main feature of this Gold ETF is that unlike others, the underlying gold will be kept in secured valut in Chek Lap Kok (Hong Kong Airport), and not in other countries.

    While the full prospectus is not known to me, the reputed name of Value Partners and also easy liquidity in Hong Kong, whose currency is pegged to USD, ensure that real return on gold in USD terms will be accurately reflected in daily trading.

    See this link. Please ensure that you have studied the details of this Gold ETF before investing. Hong Kong market is very liquid with settlement on third day. Ensure that your gold ETF is kept with the well known brokers.

  265. Respected Sir

    Please guide us the implication/effect of this new fresh stimulation FED has given. Also due to this development dollar has down and may lead Gold price up, but at the same time due to high liquidity equity outlook also look bright (although against fundamental). Sir, Please guide I am little confuse as all asset classes are going in one direction which is north against historical proven co relations.

    with regards

    Renu Khanna
    New Delhi, India 

    Kalidas says…Thursday, November 04, 2010
    The unemployment rate is 10% or about 33 Million Americans are out of job. They have to be paid monthly unemployment allowance of at least US$ 2000 per month. Now, 33 Millions x $ 2000 = $ 66 Billions have to be paid to the unemployed Americans to stop them protesting or resorting to violence.

    FED has found new term “Quantitative Easing 2″ which is nothing but printing money to help pay the unemployment allowance every month for another 9 months. Such money is not going to create jobs. they just fund the expenditure of the individual family who use this money to go to supermarket or wallmart to purchase their daily necessities. Such spending is coined as “consumer spending” which is used in GDP measurement.

    Thus 2% GDP Growth in USA is funded by the FED by quantitiative easing this time. It is a different phrase. What they said – New Wine Old Bottle or Old wine New Bottle? I am also having confused mind. Let the readers for a change provide clear answer.

    Yes, you are right. Such paper money created in the maternity home called “Federal Reserve” finds its ways in equity market which is shooting up.

    If ZERO % interest can not resolve the crisis – what will? The answer was provided by me in my book “Sub Prime Resolved”. President Obama should have made an appointment with Kalidas instead of Man Mohan Singh to resolve the crisis at home. However, one word that Obama hates is “Kali” or blackness, he being black. And Kalidas means a Black Slave – a name he will detest.

    Enjoy the ride in equity. I do not know for sure which event will ultimately trigger the Nuclear Bomb – I am waiting.

      

  266. Sir,
    Thanks for your views.
    Sorry for not providing numbers for my other query :).
    Deccan gold mines – 800 @ 30 – i had bought it with the idea that it’d get mining license and do some real digging. but looks like thats going to take a long time. I can wait though. I keep selling at highs and buy back at lesser price.
    Lloyds steel – 1000 @ 32. I had bought this stock in the pre-kalidas days i.e, when i wasn’t aware of your blog :). I was basically a trend follower at that time and would end up buying1 stocks at their highs not knowing when to buy and when to sell.
     
    Thanks
    Raghav
    Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Thursday, November 04, 2010
    First of all, never invest into any Gold, Silver of Diamond mining stock. They are all story stocks. They tell you what is fifty fathom deep reserve which they even do not know. This mining industry is dominated by crooks and scoundrels in Africa.

    No one owns a gold mine in India. Even if it does, such assets dug out of ground is claimed by Government of India as national asset. Practically every country during this commodity boom has started claiming rights or charging heavy license fees for extracting commodity from under the ground. Australia is another example.

    When you can invest in gold easily and also sold near the corner of your street, why do you go for unknown crap gold mining stocks or ETF or any other damn thing? 50 grams of gold does not need more than 3 inches of your safe or if it is risky, one can keep the gold in Safe Deposit Locker.

    I will reply to your specifics a day later. I am just tied up today.

  267. Dear Sir,
    Based on your advise, I’m staying away from Shree Renuka Sugar for a while.
    I have purchased 250 shares each of :
    Satyam (81.00) CMP 82.35 and
    ZEE News (13.50) CMP 15.40
    Please advise whether to add further 250 shares of Satyam or invest equivalent amount into Zee News.
    Regards

    Kalidas says…Thursday, November 04, 2010
    NOTE: Always append your name, city and country to your signature. Please follow protocol rigidly if you want reply.

    SATYAM will make quicker and greater money in short term – 12 months. However, wait until Mid Nov when its Q1 and Q2 might be announced.

    ZEE NEWS is good to buy now. It did go to above Rs 17 and then dropped. Once it goes above 18 and stays there for at least 3 days, buy more then. At the moment, it is in accumulation stage, so accumulate.

  268. Dear Sir,

    What should be the maximum level of correction one can expect while investing in silver at current levels. You advice will help me to decide the quantity that I would like to hold at current levels.

    Thanks
    Raj Sharma
    Delhi, India
    Nov 04, 2010

    Kalidas says…Thursday, November 04, 2010
    Silver used to be very volatile and there was a time when the silver was in single digit (in dollar terms) when it used to correct by 20% in a day.

    Of late, the Silver is in higher double digits. The crash of 20% is no longer expected, because the metal is rising slowly and steadily.

    The most correction we can expect is about 5% to 8% under the present circumstances. (from recent consolidation level). I do not monitor the silver prices in India which again has another factor to consider – $/Rupees exchange rates. In dollar terms, the correction level is $23.35 to 23.65. Find out equivalent Rupee rates on that day.

  269. Kalidas Jee

    Wish you and your family happy and healthy Depawali.

    Vikram
    NJ USA

  270. Hello Mr. Anil,
    Wishing you and your family a very Happy and Prosperous Diwali.
    Thanks,
    Anup Maheshwari, New Jersey, USA, 3 Nov 2010

  271. Hi Kalidasji,

    Do we know when the Satyam Q1 and Q2 results are coming out? I though they had said November 15th?

    What price movement do you expect in the ADR and Indian Stock as we approach November 15th?

    Regards,

    Chandni
    Austin, Texas

    Kalidas says…Thursday, November 04, 2010
    Yes, in middle of November, we were told.

    ADR being on OTC, not much expected unless the company has appointed some marketmakers. At the moment, it seems unlikely.

    On domestic front, the order position may be good, but actual financials may not be that good because lot of hangover and pending expenses may get written off. TM might deliberately show poor result so that its shareholders can get higher number of shares in stock swap.

    Once the merger is done, rest assured of high earnings by Satyam so that even TM holders get benefits. The present low prices will be historical in future.

    I would buy the stock in next two months from current price level, because I am convinced that March quarter onwards the performance should be very good. At that time, even ADRs may develop premium. At the moment, it is possible that it might trade at discount.

    The key is when the merger is fully consummated and shares issued in shareswap arrangements.

  272. Dear Sir
    Your openion on DishTv and Spice Jet q2. Are they meeting your expectations?
    http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=az.QnQcjdxGk

    http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/dish-tv-lowers-net-loss-at-rs-262-cr/113618/on
      I have sold 70% of Spice jet  around 80-90 range  ( Buying price 57) and  90% of  Dish for 55-60 (Buying price 38). At  what price I should start buying them back. I am bit worried  thinking it should not happen like  UCObank  or Lic Finance which are just not coming down

    Shiva
    Bangalore
    India

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, November 03, 2010
    If you are afraid of those stocks being lost out too cheaply, buy them back and stay with them. The momentum is on your side. Spicejet profit is not that significant to warrant longer stay. it is the market strength, not stock strength.

  273. Sir

    Your outlook on tvtoday? What price we can expect in 12 months?
    Now cmp is Rs 77. I have purchased at 86. Can i add more to average?

    Results were very bad.nET LOSS at 7 crore from profit a year earlier.

    http://www.moneycontrol.com/company-article/tvtodaynetwork/news/TVT 

    princeofindia
    abu dhabi

  274. Hi Kalidas Sir,
    My second question is about the analysts like MS & others have given targets that markets will raise by 10% and make fresh highs  in next 3 months, i believe in your words , but do you advise taking a long position for next few months.
     
    regards
    $amir, 11/03 , Mumbai

    MS and GS have better reputation than this Kalidas. They have larger followings too. Believe them and invest in some of their recommended equities.

    Even if I have to invest, I prefer only OMC followed by some bargain stocks . In my opinion,. the bargain stocks are almost non existent.

    This market is for momentum players. I am not one of them. So choose and pick good stocks which are still trading at reasonable level. CAIRNS, SATYAM are some of those bargains.

  275. Dear Sir,
    if we buy gold from bank like hdfc or icici, is it ok ? or shud i buy from jewellers only ?
     
    Thanks,
    $amir, mumbai , 11/03

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, November 03, 2010
    Buy from SBI but not from ICICI and HDFC where the prices are nearly 10% higher in effective terms. Otherwise, buy gold bars from jewellers only (good well known shops)
     
     
     

  276. Dear Ánil,

    I ndian markets are zooming and making newer heights. There is no sign of fatigue as if the market has got elexir in the shape of liquidity and govt support(which is all out to support and making prospective statements by all and sundry by FM, PM, Planning Commission and what not).

    How do you expect the severe correction to unfold? Please elaborate. We all readers of your blog await your valuable comments.

    Rajesh
    New Delhi, India
    3rd November 2010

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, November 03, 2010
    You are right. The momentum is against my opinion. Make some selective investment if you need to sit in the running train. I am still staying out.

  277. Sir,
    As you stated  “money printed in USA are now finding home in banking sector in India”.  Now FED is ‘monetary easing’ by planned injection of $500B .

    Any US FII can buy ‘value’ stocks in india by pumping these ‘free’ dollars and either have these assets ( like Coal India  etc) or sell when they are at high price and make money. ( i mean with dollars that are not really worth)

    Are we not loosing then?

    who is controlling this area and how effectively?

    Thanks
    Raghu
    Bangalore
    India

    Kalidas says…Thursday, November 04, 2010
    FED does not give money to FII directly. The funds industry is not so doing well, so most money that come to India appear to be proprietory trading money of the respective funds or insurers.

    It is difficult to say which FII pumps the money and what is their source. Such information is known only to SEBI and not open to public.

    Money is money. it does not have owner’s name printed on it. There is no question of losing to FII because it is extremely difficult to know who buys whom and when and from what source.

    Do not read too much into such uncertain source of information.It is a futile exercise. Focus on volumes on stock exchanges which might give you idea where the money is flowing into. Select the stock from those lists.

  278. With Both DISH TV and  SPICE jet results announced
    http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/dish-tv-lowers-net-loss-at-rs-262-cr/113618/on
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-03/spicejet-climbs-in-mumbai-on-900-million-aircraft-order-quarterly-profit.html

    Any change in your views. 

    SpiceJet is doing  exactly as you had been telling .It touched 91 today and i sold some of my shares at 90. Dish Too I have sold more or less every thing  in the range 58-60. But it jumped to 62+ later  hour trading.
    Juat want to know if they are meeting  expectations in their performance
     
    Shiva
    Bangalore
    India.

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, November 03, 2010
    Always learn to leave something on table. You can never pick the top.

    I do not like companies still making losses inspite of nearly 4000 crores of sales in a year. I think selling Dish TV was right thing to so.

    Nothing wrong in selling Spicejet. The profit generated is not large enough to warrant stay in their stock. Se;; om ra;;u.
     

  279. Sir,
    Holding cash after selling IFCI @72, now I have 1 lakh to reinvest. Please advise me of your choice 1) ashtavinayaka (CMP 47.5) or 2) Dish TV (CMP 63) or 3) Satyam (CMP 81).
    Regards,
    Gouthami,
    warangal

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, November 03, 2010
    Buy some Satyam (not over 500 for the time being). Buy some IDBI bank (250 shares to start with).Also, buy some CAIRNS (Rs 330) and MRPL (Rs 83)

  280. Hi Kalidas

    I have 4500 satyam stocks at 95 avg cmp 81.5. I now have 50000/- to invest, should i buy more satyam stocks or should i go with oil marketing companies

    Raya
    Hyderabad, India 3-11-2010

  281. Dear Sir,

    You have asked Manunatha to shift from RNRL to South India Bank , saying “due to renewed interest in banking “.

    What does this renewed interest in banking means . Few days ago you were not keen in Banking shares.

    I also have a loss of 15K to be recovered , can i shift to south india bank.

    Regds
    Sameer
    Pune

  282. Dear Sir,
    i’m combining a few questions in one query. Pls bear with me.
    1] might be a simple question. we get to hear a lot about india being a consumptionary economy where growth is driven by consumption. I fail to understand how a country can grow by internal consumption. Isnt it similar to american growth then?. we have a greater dependency on western countries w.r.t employment & inflow of money. In such a case, how can we say that india can grow despite the negative global events?. Is it the momentum of growth which can take us higher?
    2] i was holding a few stocks of RCF since 3yrs and today i saw it hitting 20% upper circuit and sold a little bit. the spurt is supposedly due to expected decontrol of fertilizer prices. whats your view on this decontrolling and the oppurtunities that it presents, if any.
    3] sold 200RNRL and bought 200 South indian bank after reading one of your comments. I’m having a few more such stocks which have been relatively immobile and putting in me loss. Ex: Deccan gold mines, Lloyds steel. what would be your suggestion on this, if any.
    Thanks
    Raghav
    Bangalore

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, November 03, 2010
    1. Unless there is consumption, there is no need to have production. Just as loan creates deposits, consumption create employment (due to production and other services). Almost all countries are consumptionist society with US leading the pack.

    However, when the consumption comes from Savings, it is very positive for the economy, In USA consumption came from debtm bit from savings that created the bubble that finally burst. We have to therefore see the quality of consumption.

    2. I do not see Fertilizer prices being decontrolled in another 3 to 4 years. It is a mass village vote getter. No one would want to rock the boat. Spurt in stock prices due to such erroneous belief is a sell opportunity. Nevertheless, you hve to see the merits of the each company.

    3. Sale of 200 RNRL can get you 300 South India Bank. Why did you buy only 200? When you swap, you use up entire cash resources released on selling.

    Reg other stocks give me specifics. I need to study those stocks before

  283. Sir,

    First of all, let me wish you a very happy diwali.
    May time ahead be more peaceful for you & your family.

    After your sell call, I have sold all my equity.
    The only investment which I have now is Gold (physical as well as ETFs).

    Now I want to invest in silver.
    Can you guide me from where I can buy silver?
    Also, plz guide me where I can sell it (I have enquired at local jewellers, but they refused to buy it from me).

    Regards,
    Gaurav
    Pune

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, November 03, 2010
    Try any jeweller’s shop and insist on buying only 0.999 Silver Bar.

  284. Dear Sir,
    I have started following your CMCA since the last one month.
    I have followed your suggestions and bought the following in the last three weeks:
    Ruchi Infra: 1000@33.04; CMP = 30.90
    K View Hold for a while.
    MRPL       :  100@82;       CMP = 83.35
    K View Too small position. Add 1400 more
    IOC         :   50@420;     CMP = 422.70
    K View Add 150 more at least
    HPCL       :   100@505;    CMP = 498.00
    K View Hold
    ONGC      :   36@1334;    CMP = 1330.40
    Kalidas says…Wednesday, November 03, 2010
    Hold the position. Add more about 14 at CMP. Alternatively, swap entire position to Cairns
     
    And I have been accumulating Mahindra Satyam over the last 13-14 months (entered it on 29Sep2009@121.85). I currently hold 11860@97.52. Its CMP = 79.10.
    K View Too high position compared to your resources. No need to buy more.
     
    Now I would like you to let me know what I can do w.r.t. the above stocks like your suggestions on adding, averaging. Please also let me know which other stocks I can buy.

    After going through your answers today, I have decided to buy 1000 each of Ispat Industries@20.50 and South Indian Bank@28.65.

    I would like to thank you for spending your precious time for people like me.

    Best Regards,
    Gopi, Hyderabad,India
    Posted at 03:22AM on Wednesday, the 03rd November 2010.

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, November 03, 2010
    See my comments above against each stock and also the following.

    Focus on the following stocks for a buy:
    IDBI Bank (Rs 183) – in strong correction. It has risen by 50% of late, but it holds the best potential in banking sector. This bank has so many unlisted assets that its real worth will be known about two years later.

    ZEE NEWS; (Rs. 15.35) good level to enter

    EVERREADY: (CMP RS 62) coming down so watch it for a while. Make first entry at about Rs 58.35 or about

    SILVER: Buy some precious metals like Silver (Metal bar 0.999) at current prices. Buy about 3 Kgs of Silver below Rs 40,000 per kg.

  285. SIR,
    Thank you for your blunt answer esp about the trading part. I shall remember your quote and try to stop this trading but like everyone knows its like taking drinks. The temptation is too hard to resist not that one stands to gain from it. All the same a big thanks for your blunt take it or leave it sytle of advise. Really appreciate your style sir. wishing you the very best and a very happy DIWALI in advance.
    vivard
    trissur,kerala,india.

  286. Dear Sir,
    I have appx. 120 grams of gold. Is it worth changing it to silver considering the ratio has already dropped from 80 to 55.

    Cheers,
    Abhijeet, San Fran, US, 11/2/2010

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, November 03, 2010
    Sell 40 grams of gold now and switch to Silver when it corrects. Pay close attention to dollar index. If it improves by 2%, Silver prices may correct by 5% or more.

    You can also afford to swap straight from gold to silver. In bull run, silver will outperform gold by 1.5:1 margin that may improve to 2.5:1 within 3 months.

  287. Dear Kalidasji,
    I am holding 1000 TTML(Tata Teleservices-BSE Code-532371) @ 19, CMP – 23.10 since last three years.
    I could not sell it in boom time due to much higher expectation.
    Is it worth holding for another 6 months or else?
    Regards,
    Ghanshyam
    Surat
    India
    2 Nov 2010

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, November 03, 2010
    Yes. hold it until Jan 2011 when it should report better earnings. If it does, it is likely that the stock might develop significant upward momentum,

    The stock has returned to Operating Profit after years of losses. Its negative capital has been turned into profit on stake sale which generated over 838 crores (Rs 4+ per share). Better picture will emerge when the Financial Year ends on 31Mar2011.

    With stake sale, the interest cost should reduce by 0.50 per share due to higher cash inflow last quarter. It’s operations are still not much profitable though, but things are on recovery path.

    If you have held it for 3 years, hold for another one year. The stock has too many shares in the market (190 crores). If the stock is reverse split 5:1, it will have better appeal to the institutions. Large funds do not invest in small value stocks – they like stock with prices well above Rs 230. (US$ 5 or more). Any value below this indicator is treated as “Penny Stock”

  288. Dear Sir,
    I have a query regarding my comfortable positions in gold and silver Futures.

    I am currently holding 300 grams of gold and 15 kg of silver in futures market.

    One lot is 100 grams for gold and 5 kgs for silver.

    I have invested about 100000 Rs in it, started with one gold and silver lot and slowly increased my positions when earlier positions became profitable.

    I am currently in 175000 Rs profit i.e my total account position is 275000. I further want to increase one lot of gold. Do you think its too much risky. The total account position is about 25% of total contact value.
    Any directions will be highly helpful.
    Regards,
    Rahul, gurgoan, india, 2nd Nov 2010.

    Kalidas says…Wednesday, November 03, 2010
    I do not advise on futures. It is too tricky game. However, on short term, especially during next 30 days, we should expect significant gains in Gold and also in Silver prices (up by 6% and 15% respectively).

    Conduct your future operations consulting others. Pay close attention to US dollar index. If dollar gains, your profitable situations will come down significantly. At the moment, though the dollar is on decline.

  289. CORRECTION IN MARKET

    Sir

    Quaterly Results (Q2) of all major companies are on expected lines. Indian market is holding due to inflow by FIIs. Should one take long positions in Nov. & Dec.2010 in market as major correction might have  shifted to January 2011?
    Regards

    arun
    Mumbai , India

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    You may. However, I disagree that the correction has shifted to Jan 2011. My original assessment remain same. Yes, money printed in USA are now finding home in banking sector in India which is rising inspite of massive losses on the bonds held by them which lose value @ 3% for every rise in interest rate by 0.25%/. These banks are not making provisions for bond losses which generate the higher profits.

  290. Hello,
    I have been reading your blog for last few months and your articles are helpful to understand the fundamental aspects of stocks.
    I have bought 3500 SAIL  @ Rs 198  and 6000 Mahindra Satyam @98
    I can hold for long term, just want to know if I am in correct stocks or should I switch to some where else?
    Thanks
    Somnath Bhattacharjee                2Nd November
    Kolkata
    West Bengal
    India

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    SELL 500 SAIL and swap to Satyam at <80. This will average down without investing more money.

    You did not make any mistake. SAIL is about to raise the money which will make the company sought after by FII. It is yet another stock that qualifies for inclusion in BSE and NSE. Index tracking funds will have to load on to this stock (SAIL)

    Satyam is Satyam. It will make most money for you.

     

  291. Subject: Should I buy 1 kg Silver on Dhanteras???
     
    Hi Anilji,
     
    Am very eager to buy 1kg silver on this Dhanteras (not for ornaments, but as an investment), which is on 3rd Nov. But the prices of silver are at 30-yrs high. Should I buy it or wait for the correction. I have 50000 cash in hand and can wait for 1.5 years to see my money appreciating… Please advice…
     
    Regards,
    Ojal Suthar, Udaipur, Rajasthan, INDIA
    02-NOV-2010 @ 04:58 PM

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    When you want to make profitable investment, you do not wait for Dhanteras to enter. You enter the Silver (in this case) when it has severely corrected which happened only 3 days before when the Silver prices dropped from $24.85 to $23.20 or by $ 1.65 or by 6%. It has recovered by 5% within next 3 days.

    That is, when the opportunities scream you do not wait for the proper muhurat. Yes, Silver is still cheap and my target remain same as Rs 1 Lakh per kg in 18 months. So I do not care whether I pay Rs 36,500 or Rs 39,000 per kg now.

    Same question was asked by another reader from Bangalore who wanted to buy Silver 8 Kgs but was scared because of rising prices which had shot up to Rs 28500 at that time. in less than three months, the Silver prices have risen by Rs 10,000 per kg or by 30%. I do not know whether the reader bought or not. But the moral is that one should grab the opportunity by neck when it comes – Dhanteras or No Dhanteras

  292. Sir,
    Spice jet results are out and Net profit is INR 10 cr. Please let us know your views and tell us when to exit. I would like to swap money from spice jet to satyam after reaching best price. Please advise.
    Thanks,
    Regards,
    Krishna
    Hyd

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    In short term. Rs 88 to 92 with higher target price range.

  293. Dear Sir

    If Possible Then please Start Stock Observatory- INDIA Coloum,
    It will be very Usefull for all of us.

    Regards
    Basant, Delhi, India

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    I know it is useful but when I am traveling a lot, it becomes difficult to focus on short term movements. I will restart soon. Prior announcement will be made in this column.

  294. Dear Sir,
    May be a stupid question:
    If a company gives bonus shares, what can be read between the lines? Is company doing well? not well?
    who will benefit from this? Company or share holders or both or neither?
    One more doubt, why should company give bonus, just to reduce the price of each share?

    Please educate us.

    Best Regards
    Shaan

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    NOTE: Always append your name, city and country to your signature. Please follow protocol rigidly if you want reply.

    Issuing Bonus shares is price neutral event everywhere in the world except in India. Dhirubhai Ambani was the first to know the craze of Indian investors at just mere look at the bonus shares. Except in India, no where in the world, the bonus shares drive up the stock prices.

    Take example of say, your business. You own a business with a profit of Rs 1 crore per year. You have issued to yourself and your family say 100,000 shares. The profit per share is Rs 100 per share. If you are a public listed company, your stock price would be anywhere between Rs 800 to 1600 per share

    Now presume that you want to issue bonus shares in the ratio of 1: 5 spo that you would have 500,000 shares. Does it increase the profit of your company. No; Does it mean that you are doing well than figures indicate – again NO, Does it mean that you are becoming richer – No because your total asset remain same, presuming the share price remain same. The earning per share rises – No it will fall because same Rs 1 crore will be divided by 500,000 instead of 100,000 so that EPS will be Rs 20 instead of 100 per share.

    The only difference is that Bonus shares are issued by capitalizing the reserve (general reserve or accumulated profits). In accounting, it does not increase the net worth of the company. The Reserve now takes the form of Capital. It is just internal accounting entry

    Yes, when a company issues Bonus Shares, it is out of present profit pool or General Reserve. It means that the company was profitable. A company can not issue Bonus Shares when it is in Net Loss situation.

    In those cases, the company management resort to another route – they split shares, say from 1 to 5 even if they do not have profit. What happens here is that number of shares rises to 500,000 but it will have Face Value of just Rs 2 (10 divided by 5) instead of Rs 10 before.

    Bonus Shares means that new shares are issued to you as “fully Paid up” free shares for you.

  295. Hi Anil,
    Been a while since I have posted any queries but been reading your blog daily. Wanted your opinion on the following stock.
    Southern Ispat & Energy Ltd. Bse Code: 531645
    CMP:12.50
    Southern Ispat & Energy Ltd. has declared its results for the quarter ended September 2010. Total income came in at Rs 113.24 crore as compared to Rs 32.3 crore, a 251% jump YoY. It reported an 879% jump in net profit of Rs 7.34 crore versus Rs 75 lakh, YoY. In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Vivek Agarwal, CMD, Southern Ispat & Energy gave his perspective on the quarter gone by and the road ahead.

    http://indiaearnings.moneycontrol.com/sub_india/compnews.php?autono=495548
    Looks lucrative but needed some expert advice. Thanks.
    Regards,
    Niranjan Shetty
    Doha,Qatar
    Nov 2, 2010

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    No comments for the time being. The stock is not in my follow up list and I do not want to invest into steel sector for the time being. further, it is too small company to bother about in steel sector. I normally go for large companies where the volume could increase or decrease the earnings, Smaller companies do not succeed when the giant sharks are around.

    This is not to take away the merits of your choice. the fact is that the stock is not known to me and I do not intend to enter this sector for about 6 months at least.

  296. SAIL
    Hi Sir
    Can you shed some light on why SAIL always performs badly? Do you think is it worth price to buy now or it has still downside?
     
    Regards
    Manju
    Manjunatha Shetty
    Bangalore India
    Nov 02 2010

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    It depends on point of entry into the stock and also the sector. If you have entered the sector in first stage, you would have made fabulous money. Steel sector is now in 3rd stage of its bullish run. So do not expect distribution of sweets. However, SAIL is going to raise money soon which has kept its prices under check.

    Again it all depends what you call “perform badly”. About 7 to 9 years back, I used to buy same SAIL from Rs 5 to 8 level and last highest price I paid was Rs 13.85. Now the current price is almost 15 times than the highest price I ever paid. I got out cheaply at mid 130 level which still gave me almost 10 times return. Will you call it “badly performed”? My brokers used to laugh when I used to place buy orders. When the brokers laugh at you, is the first and foremost sign that you are all set to make heftiest gain.

  297. RNRL
    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-news/reliance-natural-shares-to-stop-tradingnov-10_496174.html
    Can you please give some guidance on what does this mean?  I have some RNRL shares purchased as per your suggestion.  Do I continue to buy or sell it now?
    Thanks
    Manju
    Manjunatha shetty
    Bangalore India
    Nov 02 2010

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    This stock has suddenly become “immobile” after initial momentum which now appears to be false signal. It looks like you may have to wait longer than forecast. My own position is so small that I have decided to forget that I ever bought this stock.

    Sell it out if you have better choices. I would consider switching to South India Bank (due to renewed interest in banking sector), Zee News and Ruchi Infrastrucuture. Or just buy 1/10th of IOC, that is selling every 10 shares of RNRL will get you One share of IOC or 5 shares of MRPL. (which is also suggested)

  298. 1) Can you please explain the cheapest stock in State Owned Refinaries i.e. IOC, BPCL, HPCL and MRPL considering their EPS and P/E ratio. Surprised to see that BPCL is trading 40 times P/E at 755 with EPS of 17.5; and IOC is trading ONLY 20 TIMES  P/E at 430 with EPS of 21. Is the number of shares playing a big role in determining their trading price? Please explain the analogy between P/E, EPS and Total number of shares.

    2) How does Indian Govt decide the subsidized amount to these companies? Does it compensate a percentage of loss incurred by Oil Marketing Companies or would it be based on the reports generated by individual companies? Also IOC is going to recieve more subsidy than its peers, Is this a game plan to bump up its share price to 450 levels, matching the FPO price?

    It would be highly beneficial to me, and others, if you can please explain what important factors do you look at when evaluating a company such as P/E, EPS, SALES, NUMBER OF SHARES etc. I do own IOC and BPCL.

    Thanks for your invaluable help.
    Amar Allampati, Atlanta (1st Nov 2010)

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    You are making same mistake again. You have to consider prospective EPS and not historical standard. For all of OMC, past was a nightmare. New policy of decontrol will gain momentum in less than 18 months at the most by which time these stocks will be fairly in advanced stage of gains.

    Read my article again on OMC published here. All stocks are cheap, but IOC being the largest and finest, and has more chance to outplace all top stocks in India such as ONGC. RIL and also SBI. IOC is destined to become No. 1 stock in India. After about 2 years, everyone will talk about only IOC.

    Other questions are too general to answer. This medium is not a school or college where I have to teach the readers basic tenets of investments. I deal with finer points of investment not generally known to even Harward MBAs.

    In one of the ensuing article, I would certainly deal some of your points in selecting companies. In one of my past article on how to trade stocks, I have detailed over 23 commandments some of which answer your points. Please await my said article which may be published in 15 days.

  299. Sir,
    sorry if this qn has been asked before. Among others as per your reco i hold 400 IOC (cp-425) and 200 HPCL (cp-500), satyam -1800 (CP-88) and made an interim marginal profit on 500mrpl and waiting to buy back below 80. I wish to know, when you have said be 95% in cash does it include holdings of IOC,MRPL,HPCL. In case of a severe fall wont these shares also correct badly. hence should i sell of these shares also at the present levels.kindly advise. thanks
    vivard
    trissur
    kerala
    india

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    I have replied before and again reiterate the view again. 5% includes all OMC. Yes, if the market falls steeply, these stocks too will fall but less than the other stocks. There is always some downside regardless your point of entry into any stock/

    You will need to shed the trading mentality if you want to make any decent gain. I never invest into stocks unless I am assured at least 100% return in 3 years. Instead of making 3% in trading and gluing myself to the screen during entire market hours, I would rather make 33% per year in one trade and keep myself free watching movies in multiplexes and eating popcorn there.

    It is therefore your choice whether to hold or sell. I know that you are super conscious after losing a lot in frequent trading. I say it again – Trading is like having a sex with a prostitute – it gives temporary pleasure, but for permanent pleasure and peace, you got to go home to permanent partner.

  300. Dear Anilji,

    Wish you a very happy diwali (in a bit advance :-))

    I had posted a query, but it remained unanswered unfortunately. I am holding cash except IOC, Satyam and TM (I m in green). Just wanted to check if it is okay to stay put in TechM as well (for same reason as its own valuation will go up as Msat starts rising.) you agree?

    -Rahul R R
    London, UK.

    Kalidas says…Tuesday, November 02, 2010
    Stay with it. When TM merges with MH and with MH expected to do much better than any other IT stocks in Indian market, it implies that TM will also do very well. You might get new shares in the ratio of 1:8 or 1:10 and your stock cost will come down accordingly.

    Hold for at least 15 months to make over 150%

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