949-228-7621 anilselarka@gmail.com

Confused Mind Clear Answers (2011-03)

March 2011

Ref: CMCA – 2011-03 of 1st March, 2011

Basic Requirements to Post Queries and Stocks Inquiries.
I am starting today “2011, March series”. Post your February comments here using comment box at the bottom or add comment on the top. I am making few changes. My reply will not be detailed as before. It will not be more than 8 lines at the most. This I am going to implement strictly in future. If there is any major issue of concern or interest is shown by the readers, I will promptly address it in the form a separate post or page, so that repetitive query are not posted or answered, and the readers can enjoy only single point of reference for that issue. Use the Readers Corner to make any suggestions for any stock to be covered by us in future.

The readers may note another important protocol. Please post your comments in the following format: THIS IS A MUST REQUIREMENTS

HEADING – Write in Capital letters, Country, name of the stock enquired about or title of major issue as per reader’s choice. Do not extend beyond one line. write in this fashion: Do not use < or > tag which is used in HTML format.

Instead, just separate the items by “,” or comma.

Country or Global ,  Stocks or Commodity, Stock or commodity name, Reg: Subject.

Make it Bold using built in word processor (after selection of text, press “B” from the menu within the comment box)

  • India, Stocks, Reliance Industries Ltd.,  Reg: Sustainable Target
  • Global, Precious Metals, Gold or Silver, Reg: Are they still good to buy?
  • US, Economy, Reg: Housing Recovery
  • Global, Currencies, Aussie Dollar, Reg: when to sell?
  • India,  Bonds, IFCI Infrastructure Bonds, Reg: IPO – Is it good to subscribe?
  • India, Stocks, Ashtavinayak, Reg: Trapped. Need Solution
  • HK, Stocks, PetroChina (Symbol), Reg: About right issue

  1. Write your query or specific question very clearly.
  2. If you are trapped in certain stocks, indicate Quantity, Cost and CMP (Current Market Price). Without these details, no answer will be posted.
  3. Do not seek any opinion on unknown stocks. This column is not meant for new recommendations.
  4. Do not use compliments for my predictions or assessments. Yes, you can criticize.
  5. Write each issue in one Para. Do not go beyond 4 paragraphs. Each para not to exceed 3 lines.
  6. Write to the point, do not be apologetic for anything nor bother about what I would feel about your post, just speak out your confused mind or confusion in simple narration style.
  7. Do not discuss personal problem in these columns as far as possible
  8. Use your normal word processor, to write your comments first, think over it, have it spell checked with proper capitalization, and then only post it. Avoid posting by cell phone as far as possible.
  9. Make a standard format or template using the present protocol, so that you do not forget anything like your name, city etc.

Write Real or nick Name,  City,  Country, Date of Post,  All in one line.

Formatting your posts in above manner will make entire post pleasant, eye catching, and highlight the stocks or subject in such a way that other readers can scroll through easily to find what they want even from your message.

PORTFOLIO SOLUTION: It is fee based solution. Send your portfolio with your problems and expectation. Send it over to readers.kalidas@gmail.com

This column is free for about 2 months after which it will be “subscription based” from 1st April, 2011. Prior announcement will be made however.

DISCLAIMER: The Author uses his vast experience of about 42 years in finance especially in bank, stock markets, bond trading, currencies, precious metals etc. He is retired and does not have allegiance to any brokerage firm,.bank, investment bank or any other professional or listed company. However, he expressly disclaims any liability for any loss, damage suffered by any reader of this blog by following any opinion or advice given by the author in good faith and without negligence. This is a free service, and should be used it at Reader’s risk and responsibility.No liability – Civil, Criminal or Tort – shall attach to the Author.

Kalidas (Anil Selarka)
Hong Kong, 1st March, 2011


  1. Sir,

    why have you discontinued your blog. We miss you a lot sir. Hope everything is fine sir. Pray to God for your wellbeing.

    Bye Sir.

    Lakshmi, India Lucknow,9/6/2014

  2. Kalidas ji,
    Thank you for the insight into the future of Yen and clarifications to Mehr.
    I have decided to move to India for good from Japan. I will have around 2M JPY in cash by the time I return back to India. I understand from your prediction that Yen may go to 70 levels soon. Not sure if INR also appreciates in proportion. I would like your suggestion on whether it is a good idea to keep the money in Japan for a while before transferring to India to enjoy the benefits of a strong yen
    KeeYes, Tokyo, Japan

  3. CMCA April 2011 column has just started. Please post your comments from 1st April 2011 there. See the side bar.This section will be closed and will not be responded.


  4. YEN

    Dear Sir,

    Your call and direction on AUD and YEN seem to be playing out for now. AUD is at all time high vs USD. And as you had said, YEN is weakening for the time being….

    You had suggested a entry price of 86 based on several reasons. Also, you are expecting a target of 60 for USD JPY…. if that happens then I would personally consider this to be a call of the century. I have always felt that getting a direction on currency is most difficult.

    My question is:

    You had specified several reasons as to why there would be homecoming of YEN and hence resultant strengthening. Do you see them playing out with recent developments ? I am planning to take positions in YEN with small amounts, averaging it till it reaches 86. Whats your advice ? Also, should i take leverage at 85/86 levels of 1:50 or lesser?

    30 Mar 2011, Singapore

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, March 30, 2011
    The currency market is always difficult to predict for novices and to some extent even currency traders. Almost every commodity, stock, bond finally get converted into a currency. This is why the currency market is the biggest market of all.

    When one trades, he focuses only on support and resistance level. If it goes here, it will go there. In short, they analyze the result not the underlying causes because they have neither time or attention or even n knowledge. If currency is sum total of all, its movements are also geared with sum total of all factors that constitute currency.

    I have luxury to analyze because I do not trade short term. I read sum total of all factors that affect the currency. Often, the currency movements are dictated by the money flow. This is what I guessed in predicting the home coming of Yen that might strengthen it regardless of what the Japanese government does.

    only yesterday, Wall Street Journal reported that most Japanese corporate customers have restarted relying on bank borrowings in stead of stock or bond market borrowing? What does it say? It says that interest rates demanded by the potential buyers are higher than the bank borrowings. Why? Because there is shortage of Yen.

    Japanese government pumped in $ 600 billlions worth of Yen into the market when by its own estimate, the damage may not exceed $300 billions. If that was so, most of the losses would be suffered by the insurers. In that case why should Japanese government pump in $ 600 billions? And really did it pump in or that was just a book entry? If such massive amount was injected, why the corporate accounts have to rely on bank borrowings and banks are more conservative in lending? It means that there is no “physical yen” in the market, and the yet that rosé in the paper market which the BOJ tried to subdue it by injecting book entry supply of Yen, that is, providing cover for reversal of Yen carry trade.

    It is obvious that interest rates in Japan are going to rise soon. When they rise, there will be huge demand for Yen. Earlier, people used to borrow in Yen and finance other assets such as dollar, aussie dollar, South African Rand, Indonesia Rupiah and even Brazil real because the interest differential was huge – from 4% to 10%. When the interest rates in Yen rises by just 0.25%, the effective rise in cost is 0.25 x 30 = 7.5% because of 30 times leverage available.

    Now your question, Yes, my prediction of Yen at 60 was based on above scenario. There might be temporary weakness for yen to go to 85 /86 level but that will provide ample opportunity to Japanese investors, insurers and Corporate companies depending on parts or major product supply from japan, to rush the Yen to Japan and buy it wholesale.

    The interest rates in Japan will rise faster than anyone thinks. If they go to modest 2%, they will play havoc everywhere – many hedge funds will be wiped out of the scene. The worse days for hedge funds are likely to come sooner they expect.

    Wall Street reported only yesterday that one of the best known hedge fund manager from London/Europe lost overnight $300 millions in single day. He bought the Japanese stocks only on previous day and the quake and tsunami struck. The market plummeted violently so he sold out in panic. However, the markets recovered on the following two days, so he was caught wrong footed.

    Reply to your Specific Query Now, I do not advise anyone on short term and leveraged basis trades. It is too dangerous because you are fighting the unwilling government who does not want to see Yen rise. However, when the Yen reaches 85 to 86 level, it might be relatively safe to take the position in favour of yen against dollar or euro or GBP. Not against other currencies like Aussie dollar, Kiwi dollar, Rand or Canadian dollar.

    In India too, when $9 billion for RIL reaches from BP and almost $300 millions from International Paper, almost Rs 40,000 crore demand for Indian Rupee will force the rupee to rise magnificently, but then we have villain of the peace – RBI or Ministry of Finance. What will they do? Inject more than Rs 40,000 crores by extra printing that will cause massive inflation again?

    India and Japan are the most unpredictable governments so far as currency is concerned. BOJ and RBI are like twin brothers, and MOF Japan and MOF in India are also cousins.

    My prediction that Yen will rise to 60 level will bear fruit in less than 18 months. Once Yen crosses the 79.25 level and then 75.35 level, hell will let lose and it will be a matter of time when it reaches to temporary stop at 71 where it will settle down for some rest.


    Captain I have   been reading your blog since Eight or Nine  months and am holding Extremely Strong On Cash Approx 100,000 USD. ll wait till Nov 2011 to invest in Stocks as per your guidance . If Oil stocks go up I will increase my investment.

    I’m writing this post to tell you that you are one in a trillion people . You are a genuine well wisher for people and the clarity in your heart can be seen. You are doing a very noble cause and will be showered with benefits.
    I will be pleased to meet you if given a chance in future

    Your Knowledge is to be saluted and remembered for the years to come .
    May God Bless You and Guide You at All Times.
    Hemanshu $abharwal. New Delhi 29 MAR 2011.

  6. Global Market-Ending QE2 programme

    Dear Sir,

    There have been articles off late that QE2 programme of FED would end before june 2011, may be in April 2011 itself.  This coupled with possible interest rate hike in Euro and other geopolitical situation, would it be reasonable to go cash now.  Uncertinity being the biggest threat to market, do you forsee any crash of more than 10% in indian market in a month or two.


  7. India stock  IOC
    With the markets heading higher for the last 5 days, IOC is also inching higher.Sir, I am waiting for your recommended entry level of Rs.287 for the stock, somewhere around April 1st week as per your prediction.The CMP is however Rs. 314.I have asked you this to get your assurance, so that I may not miss the bus.I am very keen to acquire this stock as the financials are very strong.Whether or not diesel decontrol happens, but oil prices will certainly not rock permanently.Oil cycle will also reverse, With this conviction I want to enter the stock for long term( may be my retirement asset.). Sir, please do address to my query.
    Thankyou Sir,
    Anjali Lucknow India 28/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, March 28, 2011
    While asking question you have to tell me your existing position of the said stock. I am not God that I know everything about your holding. When you write 7 lines, can not you add two words what you own and at what price? I can not give you reply like if you own x shares IOC, do this and if you do not have IOC, do that. Do not ask questions if they do not make any sense to the other reader.

    I presume that you do not own any stock. On that ground, you may buy some stock only in correction, You do not go to the market to buy when it is already up by 1000 points. and you can not have very rigid price target to buy. IOC did come down below Rs 300, where were you hiding at that time. If it did not go to Rs 287, and if it was trading at Rs 295, what difference of Rs 8 were to make if the intention is to buy on long term basis? You were not going to buy 1 lakh shares of IOC, were you?

    Even today’s price is near 12 months low. Be therefore guided accordingly. If you believe that IOC could rise to Rs 2400 in 5 to 7 years, what difference is it going to make to you if you buy at 287 or 310? Be broad minded. Only large hearts make or win money.

  8. Fresh trouble in Ireland? 

    It is reported that Irish banks may require additional funds of $ 39 billion remain solvent. It is further reported that Irish national government’s entire tax receipts for the 2010 fiscal year was mere $44 billion WHILE including the latest estimate of funds, the banks would have been pumped $104.5 billion last year.

    ALSO, very recently there have been demonstrations in London, though peaceful.
    Would like to have your considered views — (a) Is Europe facing increased trouble ( other than middle-east countries) ? (b) Any lesson to be learnt by India? (c) Effect on Gold/Silver and other precious metals prices due to this development?

    VC Sekar
    Delhi, india

    Kalidas Says … Monday, March 28, 2011
    There were no troubles in Ireland or any other European nation. It was American brokers like GS, Lehman, ML, UBS, Citigroup and host of other banks and investment banks sold them bogus debts and derivatives in billions. It is the American pukes rotting in Europe but the Europeans are so stupid that they are not taking actions in right directions.

    In any business, the loss can not be more than 10% or 20%. No country can loose over 200% of its investment unless they were filled with derivatives on leveraged basis.

    Almost all pension funds, university funds are suing Bank of America, Goldman Sachs etc for recovery of their investment for the surreptitious products sold to them by almost all leading American brokers and banks. And they are winning. If that is so, what is preventing Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain etc to file recovery law suits in United States and recover the lost money? If they have lost collectively over $ 500 billions, can not they spend $500 million to recover the money and save their countries?

    A country like Portugal used to be A rated country, higher than even India. How could it lose its status? Further, all these countries are rich in Gold reserve over which the Americans are having eye on. If you squeeze their nose, they will open their mouth, that is, if problems or difficulties are created they will be forced to sell the gold which the Americans want. It appears to me almost all gold under lien as disclosed in the Fed balance sheet belong to these very Europeans. If they are forced to sell their gold, the Americans want to flood them with papers and recover the shorted gold.

    The President Trichet of EU is blissfully unaware of the high stake games played across the Atlantic. I have no words for the fools. If they want to commit suicides, who can prevent them?

    FED and US treasury is banking on the sale of gold by these Europeans, so that their liens could be removed. and long game of concealing the pledging of gold from American people could be concealed forever so that no one questions them. The American constitution does not allow them to lease or sale the gold, it appears.

    Do you think that when almost entire world was selling gold, only Americans did not sell the gold in spite of gold rising to 500% from all time low of $ 257 to currently at $1426? Do you believe them.

    I have always mentioned that you make the most money when you are surrounded by fools. The Americans are surrounded by the fools from UK, Europe and Japan and to small extent even by India. When such fools are around, America will be greater fool if it does not take the advantage of their ignorance.

    The only buffer against United States is China and to some extent Russia.

    So how the European nations will play out, I do not know. It is better to have intelligent enemy than foolish friends because we can understand how the clever person will play out the gamebut you never know how a fool will conduct himself. You have to look only in the sky to judge their actions.

    Gold and Silver will continue to move higher and higher. Even the European gold can not address the problem of trillions of dollar thrown upon the investors world over by the American crooks and scoundrels over last few years. Even the collective value of gold of the affected nations will not amount to mover than $ 300 billions which is nothing.

  9. INDIA, FII POSITION, Is fear is over?

    Respected Sir

    Since last few days FIIs are regular buying, can you please let us know what is in their mind? Is downsize risk is over? can we have the position now.? if yes than how much upside for 6-12 month you are looking at?


    I want to invest for five year plus and can wait for next two year to get the bargain and remains three year to get good return. Is this strategy ok?

    With Regards

    Renu Khanna
    New Delhi, India



    Respected Sir,

    I had put my query on the stock  on 25/3/2011. I think it has skipped your attention.Sir, I will be grateful if you spare your precious time and give your analysis.
    Thankyou Sir
    Lakshmi Lucknow India 28/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, March 28, 2011
    Reasonably priced. Debt free company which also distributed lot of cash as dividend in the past. Regular dividend is not significant though, but may increase in future. The company’s business is also good mainly from Oil majors. The stock is in accumulation stage, and when the oil prices start taking tumble, it may begin to rise. Current market price is near bottom for almost year long point of view.

    In strictest earning point of view, it is expensive by my standard, but its debt free status makes me this stock at a time when most corporate are scrambling for cash or debt and interest rates rising.

    BUY IT NOW. The stock may give above average return @ 15% per year in next 3 years.

  11. Earthquake Prediction!

    Dear Sir

    Your earthquake prediction was awesome. Burma had one and shocks felt in Thailand too. Too bad no one noticed it on the blog. 

    What is your next prediction!

    Vivek, California, US

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, March 27, 2011
    Most readers are investors and are usually not concerned for what they consider as non-financial event.

  12. India stock Satyam

    Hi Kalidas,

    I’m very newentrant  to your blog.Reading your conviction on satyam.I also intend to take position in Satyam.I have observed that for the last 4 months it is very strong, range bound and consolidating between 62 to 68. It seems that it is readying itself for breakout.The CMP is 67.My question is whether I shound enter immediately or I will get better entry level in the 1st week of April.

    Jeet Delhi India 27/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, March 27, 2011
    Wait until 11th April at least before you buy. There is a Income Tax related case before Andhra High Court demanding payment of Rs 600 crores which Satyam says is not payable as the said income was fictitious and result of accounting fraud. Satyam is right, but the High Court has not yet given stay order. If you wish you may buy about 30% of desired quantity before the case is decided or wait until 11th April, 2011. In any case, the Annual Result for 2010-11 should be out before 30th April that should resolve almost all issues. It will also indicate better than normal performance for Mach 2011 quarter due to some high profile orders received and general improvement in software business in traditionally strongest first quarter (when most companies enter new budgetary allocations in countries like USA where the year ending is December against March in India and similar British ruled countries).

  13. It is reported that Irish banks may require additional funds of $ 39 billion remain solvent. It is further reported that Irish national government’s entire tax receipts for the 2010 fiscal year was mere $44 billion WHILE including the latest estimate of funds, the banks would have been pumped $104.5 billion last year.

    Would like to have your considered views — (a) Is Europe facing increased trouble ( other than middle-east countries) ? (b) Any lesson to be learnt by India? (c) Effect on Gold/Silver and other precious metals prices due to this development?

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, March 26, 2011
    Append your signature before you press “Submit” button. Also title your message. I reply only when the prot
    ocols as in CMCA article is followed.

  14. India, Commodity, Silver Reg: SPOT purchase in MCX
    Dear Kalidas,
    If you purchase in SPOT Silver/Gold in MCX (instead of futures), can we take delivery or is this also only cash settlement except that you pay full amount and can hold it long term with no expiry?
    Rahul, Chennai, India, 26th March 2011

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, March 26, 2011
    Check with MCX directly.

  15. India, Equity Investment/ stock

    Respected Kalidas ji,

    Kindly suggest any stock for investment which gives better returns in dividend as compared to a Fixed Deposit and also is fundamentally good so that more returns on capital can also be expected in long run.

    I would like to invest 1lakh Rs.


  16. sub: Japanese equity market for indian investor
    Dear Sir,
    Recently it was said by Warren Buffet that Japan is a buy. What are your thoughts about this? Do you think an Indian investor should invest in Japanese market? If yes, what are the channels by which this can be done?
    v8r, Bristol, UK.

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, March 26, 2011
    Yen is a buy – Japan as a country, its stocks or bonds – NO.

  17. India, Commodity, Silver – Comment

    It appears that the banks have taken good control to prevent the price of silver from going up after they shorted heavily in the last hour on 24th March. I think they will manage to keep the price down atleast till the end of march. Any ideas?

    Rahul, Chennai, INDIA 25-3-2011

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, March 26, 2011
    Come next week and let it be over with.

  18. INDIA, STOCK, Chambal Fertilizers, Sub: Long term target


    Many times Chambal falling below 70 but not 68. It’s CMP is 76.70 today. Is it good buy for long term. If it is good buy for long term, can you advise the time and price also.

    Thanking you,

    Krishna, Hyderabad, INDIA

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 25, 2011
    Normally, I do not get involved into price controlled type of stocks. However, with commodity prices rising, the petrol prices rising, the chances of removal of price control measures or subsidies will be more. The government will never want to displease the farmers. It is a safe stock but it does not have volume to leverage its earnings in case of removal of restrictions.

    Yes, under present circumstances and price, the stock is a buy. I do not have any price target because the factors affecting the earnings are beyond the control of the company.

  19. subject :demerits of holding stock futures

    I was advised by some consultant that one would be better off if he would take futures position (long) in his investment stock and put the balance money in a flexi fixed deposit with bank,so that if futures position needs more margin(ie if stock price falls after entry),he can use part amount of fixed deposit for additional margin. Also the futures position would be rolled over periodically till the life time of investment in that stock.Is this a correct strategy that one can adopt on a liquid stock like IOC


    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 25, 2011

    Future contract always have unlimited liability. (they are not options). If due to local or overseas event, if the market drops by 2000 points, each contract will invite margin call of Rs 1 Lakh. Your entire fixed deposit could be wiped out.

    In investment there is one cardinal rule – If you do not know or can not understand the product or situation, say NO firmly to your consultant. Most people are not able to say NO which is the main reason for their main losses. Keep both deposits and stock investments separately. Do not try to mix up. If you wish to invest into IOC, make simple vanilla investment. Similarly, if you want LIC policy, just take out traditional endowment type of policy. Many took out ULIP policy and finally after 3 to 5 years, they found major value evaporated.

    Yes, in a way the stock like IOC specifically would make sense by buying against the Fixed Deposit simply because the IOC is a dividend paying company, and the interest on borrowing could partly be paid by dividend. The difficulty is that it would develop a bad habit. One will be inclined to use this strategy for every other stock or commodity, whether it is a blue chip or not. Most of the times, the investors buy “Non Blue Chip stocks”. So long as one is very disciplined in the stock and money management, there is reasonably low risk. But the real risk is the “bad habit forming” as explained above. One can borrow money to buy the stocks when the markets have lost about 70% of its value or a specific stock has lost that much value. In that case, the risk is relatively less. Most of the times, the investors borrow only near market peak in a bull market and that’s where they get hurt.

    I invested into UTI Petrofund when the oil prices were low and even Reliance was trading at Rs 350 or about before disbursement. After 7 years when I sold, I could get just 7% annual return. If I had invested in ONGC or RIL or even Petronet directly, I would have made 500% to 800% or about 80% per year in same sector in same constituents.

  20. India, Stocks,Satyam Computers,IOC,HPCL. Reg: Suggestion hold or sell?

    Dear Kalidasji,

    As mentioned in your Nov 2010 series  blog that Satyam computers will reach 120 by April end 2011 when the March quarter earnings would be announced. 
    And suggested to buy when the price was 64Rs.I have invested 1.2lacs in that shares by purchasing around 1900 shares @65.49 Rs
    Just want to know your target of 120 for Satyam by April 2011 is  still intact.Any revision of date and price?
    As i am observing this stock from Nov 2010 its not evening crossing 70.

    And also I have 125 shares of HPCL @396 rs and 100 shares of  IOC @344rs.In HPCL there is loss of 14.5%(7500rs) and in IOC there is a loss of 10.2%(3625rs).

    Please suggest me should i hold for some more time or add some more shares to my portfolio? I have 25k cash on hand to invest.

    Awaiting your valuable suggestion.

    25th March 2011.

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 25, 2011
    We have suggested buying OMC on at least 3 to 5 years horizon basis. Refer Economic Times top 500 companies in India where IOC ranks No. 1, ahead of RIL/Tata/Birla/Mahindra group of companies. If you ask me a question after 3 months instead of after 3 years, what reply do you expect from me? Further, until Government policy on diesel pricing is out, not much movement can be expected due to rising oil prices. If you are worried about the above stocks’ short term performance, you may sell them now, take the losses and re-enter only after the decontrolled oil/diesel prices are announced by the Government.

    It looks like you are a short term investor with limited budget. It is better you remain only in very active performance stocks that are not dependent on government pricing policy (that is stocks in industries in non price control categories). Some of such industries are Auto industry (Buy stocks like Ashok Leyland, TVS Motors, Escorts etc.) which require low investment with higher returns. However, please note that these stocks are not as good as you currently own. Other stocks you can go for is Aviation sector such as Spicejet (Rs 40 or about) and Jet Airways. You may also buy now active stocks like LIC Housing Finance, and Real Estate stocks like Unitech (around Rs 40) recently recommended by many international brokerage house.

    There is no point of investing your balance savings into same stocks which are not to your liking. Always make it a point to invest only in personally liked stocks. It will remove the guilt of investing into negatively performing stocks for whatever reasons. Once you have readjusted your portfolio into desirable stocks, then only investing more fresh funds.

    For Satyam Computer, you are asking me similar question again. When you are already informed that the stock movement will brighten up only in later part of April, then wait for it. If you feel that the stock is not moving, then better sell it in recent rally. The market at the moment is good and may rise by another 600 points. You may come out during this recent rally at any price >Rs 72 to 75 which is not very tall target.


  21. Sub Prime Resolved- No Further posts?

    I just wanted to know that since the day CMCA has been moved back to this web site there has not been any posts on subprimeresolved.com . So is it inactive for the time being or is there anything bulding up on that site.

    Thanks & Regards

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 25, 2011
    Sub Prime Resolved site is devoted to my book and also for non India related investment. The articles like Quake in Japan and onset of second stage financial crisis will appear there rather than in this blog. I will make that site active for non India related investors from 1st April.

  22. India Sotock Sterlite Ind

    Respected Sir,
    I have 280 shares of Sterlite Ind.The purchase price is Rs.220 .The CMP is 169.Since you are negative on market as well as in metal shares, should I sell them around Rs.175 in this rally and then wait for correction and re-enter at later stage.

    Anjali Lucknow India 25/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 25, 2011
    I am not negative on Sterlite Industries. I would buy more rather than selling.

  23. Sub: INDIA/Commodity/Silver-Hold or Sell now?

    Dear Anil Jee,

    Has it become risky to hold silver now in plus position? Do you think there is still some steam left in the Silver Rally?Does you immediate target of Silver to 56K (ALREADY ACHIEVED) & 60K Still holds ? I hold 5 Kg of Silver brought at 52K? Do i sell it now to re-enter later or hold it till 29/3-31/3/2011.Your valuable guidance will be highly appreciated.

    Regards & Thanks a ton
    Vandana Kothari

    Udaipur (Rajasthan)-INDIA
    25th March2011

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 24, 2011
    You were already told to hold it till 29/3 and may be upto first week of April. I can not give you day to day guidance.

  24. India- Bullion – Signal to sell?

    1-sir with rapid shorts building on the silver contracts for upto 4 years ahead of time, so this means that the metal would be  drastically pushed down from here , is this where we have to liquidate all our positions?

    2-Is the other web link(Sub-Prime Resolved) gone off the air??

    Thanks & Regards
    Bilal_Kanpur_ India

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 24, 2011
    There are always sellers when there are buyers. Without sellers or short sellers, there can not be long buyers. Even when you buy a stock, there should be some one to sell the stock otherwise, the trade does not go through. A buyer always takes bullish position and seller bearish or he may need to sell to raise cash for his other priorities.

    The volume and Open Interest in silver 4 years ahead is not significant. These sellers are usually the producers who do hedging operations, and there are always some traders who want to make money in puts or sells with a view to buying back in correction in future.

    I did not understand your second question – please clarify what do you mean by “gone off the air”?

  25. Indian Ruppes vs dollar

    Dear Anil Ji,

    Is there a possibilty that indian rupee  depreciate against USD if we are expecting some market correction. Please advice on time and level.

    My 80% of money currently in Indian deposits and stocks as suggested.

    Is there any other venue, I can deploy the funds in USD or else to make little extra or should I repatriate the money back to India only.

    I have Td Ameritrade account for US stocks and forex account for currency and commoditiess but want to invest through your suggestion only.


    Ravi Bhatia, Dubai,25th march,2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 25, 2011
    Rupee is on firmer ground, and it does appear to me that the government has finally realized the benefits of strong rupee. Further, the situation on dollar front is deteriorating, with both Japan and China on potential list of sellers. Except for some strength in first week of April, that may last only 4 to 5 days, I do not expect major strength in dollar. We are still not sure of Government of India’s official stance on rupee, so we have to judge their intent based on intervention or non intervention in currency market.

    I expect more rally in the market by at least 600 points (to 19200 level) although the fundamental are worsening.

    As result, with more demand for stocks and relative weakness in dollar, I do not think that Rupee to depreciate further. In fact, it may appreciate closer to 44 level when the government’s real intention will be known.

    You are better off in investing into India and Indian stocks therefore. Interest rates on domestic deposits are high but not on NRE. I usually park money in local deposits so that I get nearly 9.5% interest against NRE interest of 3% or about on rupee. The better currency to maintain in India is Aussie dollar which not only gets higher rates but also rises faster than rupee.

    Since you are based in Dubai, I can not foresee new avenues for dollars. In fact, this is not a preferred currency for me. My preference is only for Aussie Dollar and New Zealand dollar (which is relatively cheaper than Aussie dollar) I am bit negative on Canadian dollar due to political troubles there. I do not like any of the developed country’s currency such as USD, GBP, Yen (it may rise though but has not interest payment) and Euro. The best currency to own in my personal opinion is Brazil Real, Chinese Yuan, Indian Rupee and South African Rand, Aussie dollar and New Zealand dollars. Nordic currencies are worth looking at.(I am not recommending now)

    If you are getting good interest rates on Aussie and NZ dollars in Dubai, no need to repatriate money to India in Rupee. Some banks in India do accept Aussie dollar deposits and pay good interest, and in that case, you may keep the money there instead of NRE rupee. However, if you have no objection to keep the money in local deposits, then better earn 9.5% to 10% on 7 years deposits. In 7 years the dollar will depreciate by 35% against Indian Rupees and domestic Rupee will earn you interest by 56% (after taxes) to give you overall return of about 90%. You will not earn so high elsewhere.

    For commodities, you may buy Palladium for the time being. Gold is still good to own which is easily available in Dubai (buy only 0.999 or 0.995 in bar form). In Silver, be a buyer at 33.50 (best level) or 34.85 to 35.35 level. Among other commodities, Corn and Cotton will be a good winner.

  26. Sub: India equity & property, Advice needed!

    Dear Anilji,

    I am holding most of your recommendations (IOC, Spicejet, HPCL, Satyam, Ruchi Infra) and happy to hold for the period you have mentioned for each stock. Also keeping a close eye on Petronet LNG to come near 92-95 level. With so many -ve news around (plus you mentioned that Libya issue wont go away that easily plus Japan tragedy plus problems in our own backyard) will this ‘holding’ period be lot more than what we are currenly anticipating?

    Second query is I have an investment in flat in Malad (west) near Link road in Mumbai which I bought just 15 months back for 42 lacs (it is a 1 bhk) and I have offers for 64 lacs now. In this transaction ‘white’ capital gain would be only 5-6 lacs. Should I sell the property and how should I re-deploy funds? (as I dont want to reinvest in property immediately as you expect 20% correction).

    just for info, my EMI has increased from 27k to 29k in past 4 months and rent I am getting from my tenant is 16.5k.

    Rahul R R
    Mumbai, India

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 25, 2011
    No, the current problems in Libya is only transitory. The holding period will be same or in fact will be reduced by 1 year at least.

    Sell your Malad flat and place the money into self monitored oil stock funds such as IOC, HPCL, BPCL, Petronet, MRPL, Reliance Industries and ONGC. These stocks will make more money rather than real estate. Think of buying property only in second half, near October or November subject to normal monsoon.

    Sell your property rather than earning rent. One bedroom flat can not get better appreciation because the buyers are usually from lower middle class. Do not buy any property less than 2BHK or preferably 3BHK. 2 BHK is more liquid even in difficult market,whereas 3 BHK is usually upmarket property where the risk of correction is less. If you want to make money, better go to people who can afford to spend – rich or higher middle class segment.


    There is absolute panic in the silver market. Some banks caught short and naked are so terrified that they are taking life time gamble. In matter of minutes, after Silver crossed $38.10, these banks started shorting with almost $2 billion gamble. READ MY FLASH on main page of the current article Quake Japan, Tremors in America and scroll down a bit.

    Anil Selarka (Kalidas)


  28. India Stock Karuturi Global

    Respected Sir,
    The company is a world leader in production of cut roses.They export cut roses to high value markets.Today this stock made a 52 week low.CMP of the stock is 11.90.Other statistics are as under-

    Market Cap 737          B.V.  6.91           EPS  .09     Face Value        Div. 10%
     PE 132.11                   Ind. PE  30.12  
      52week Hi Rs.38.65(on 21/10/2010)
    I dont know the reason for today’s fall.Can this be bought as they are into the niche business.

    Lakshmi Lucknow India 24/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 24, 2011
    You want to buy the stock at 132 times P/E? Are you sure? Do not think that if the stock drops by 50%, it is cheap. You have to see how the stock went to very high level at first instance itself.

  29. India Stock Engineer’s India
    Respected Sir,

    Since you are quite bullish on oil and gas sector,this stock also caters in the same sector.Can you please some time to analyse the stock and give your opinion whether we should buy the stock,if yes at what levels.This is also a good future disinvestment candidate.

    Market Cap 9985.12           EPS 14.3           PE 20.72           CMP 295

       B.V 40.82                       Face Value 5      Ind PE 21.43

    Lakshmi  Lucknow India  24/3/2011

  30. Refer our post “Enter the Second stage of Financial Crisis” where on 12/3/2011 US time, we posted an image of tsunami related devastation wherein we mentioned that the possible damage could be around $300 billion or Yen 24 trillion,  when other sources could not place any estimate at all. Look at the BBC Report today (23/3/2011) where Japanese government is now estimating losses around $309 billion or Yen 25 trillion. Look at both our original picture and new BBC report. Follow the above link to the article and scroll down to those two pictures placed one above the other.

    Anil Selarka (Kalidas) Author

  31. Silver March Contract Open Interest
    Dear Anilbhai,
    Have big players been successful in carrying forward Silver positions from March to May? I was looking at March open interest and it is currently at 863. Do you think this rally in silver still has some momentum until 29/3 or we are about to see a correction soon? I am trying to study the correlation of OI versus the price spike and hence the query.
    The Monk

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, March 23, 2011
    Silver is not trading only on Comex. It trades everywhere. March contracts have been rolled over to May for more than a month, and the Open Interest for March has come down from 1500 contracts to 863 you have just quoted. The contracts you have quoted are of 5000 Oz whereas many Mini silver contracts are also trading on NYSE liffe.

    Some contracts trading on other exchange such as London are also fungible into Comex, so you have to add all contracts and open Interest outstanding everywhere in the world, including at MCX (where there is only cash settlement), London, Tokyo, China and Middle East exchanges. Most of the markets are not cash settlement based except India.

    Options: You have to consider open interest in Silver Options at various exchanges. Under American style of options, which may expire after 3 months, a holder of option can demand physical delivery at any time from now until the expiry date of contract by filing the notice. I think it may also apply to future contract as well where the buyer of future contract, even if it is 3 months away for expiry, may insist on delivery in any month in spite of contract expiring, say in July.

    Only in European style of futures and options, the delivery is scheduled on Fixed Date, that is, on expiry date of contracts. MCX style contracts are also fixed date based on expiration of contracts.

    All physical markets are not affiliated to Comex. They are more like OTC markets. For instance, the gold or silver dealer in Mumbai may not know anything about Comex or MCX – he is governed by local rules of bullion association.

    The open interest in May which has once increased to over 85000 on Comex has eased to 75000+ yesterday but increased to 77,100 or about 2000 contracts more, that is, over 10 Million ounce of silver was shorted in one day yesterday. I read elsewhere the critical trigger level for margin calls even on banks was 36.10 which has been successfully breached. Many experts opined that $36 was the critical level for banks like JP Morgan and HSBC. At the moment of writing, the Silver has shot up to 37.33. It may end up near 41 (as per our original estimate) to 43 as per market rumors. If you want real time tick prices on Silver, be a free member of CME Group. It shows tick by tick and also time and sales report totally free of cost.

    Gold too has breached all time high and broke through 1435 level decisively. This time, it may not come down anymore. In all probability, Gold may rise to $ 1510 by 31 March 2011, and $1565 by April 7, 2011. In other words, while Silver may move 15% to 20%, gold being an elephant will move by 6% to 8% . It will offer crucial support to Silver which moves in sync with gold.

    US dollar index, which is also subject to physical delivery of underlying currency, has been sliding of late which was the result of short covering of Euro and GBP mainly – Euro constitute almost 57% weighting to my past knowledge.(not updated). If the Index falls below 74 (Current 75.88 after 0.5% rise), hell will let lose, and you might see extra ordinary rise in both gold and silver. In India, rupee may also rise which may cap the rise in rupee terms to the extent of rupee appreciation.

    Correction in Gold/Silver prices It looks like US Dollar index is being pushed higher today. This is unusual near the end of settlement. If dollar gains in this paper trading, gold and silver prices may correct a bit but delivery date not being far, I doubt whether correction will stick long. If dollar intervention is successful, there could be violent correction in Silver prices (and gold too). It can happen only today.(23/3 US time)

    I think I was right on target when suggesting that both gold and silver will begin to move higher from 19/3 onwards (effective was 21/3 because 19/3 was Saturday and 20/3 was Sunday when the markets are closed.) Enjoy the rally which may pick up strong wind in next few days. It may continue until the end of the month and in fact spill over upto 7th of April, 2011, because many might be caught up shorts and naked near the end of the month might get time of about 2 to 3 days for delivery.

    Let the top analysts say that the rise is more due to troubles at Portugal, Libya or Greece. The real reason is simply arithmetic – temporary and serious dislocation of demand and supply in increasing volume near settlement time, and holders of future and option contracts are insisting on physical delivery. Even with modest rise of dollar today, the gold and silver rocketed higher.

  32. Indian Stocks – Seeking advice on selling to book loss or any other action!

    Dear Kalidas Ji,


    I have a portfolio with all positions currently in negative. I request you to kindly suggest appropriate action on them.

    Also, you suggested to Atharva on 17th March to book loss and buy back the next morning. However, in may case, I don’t have fresh money to invest immediately the next day and will have to wait until the sale proceeds gets credited to my account. Also, to bring to your notice, any short term loss booked in such case is allowed to be carried forward for next 8 years, to offset against any future short term and long term capital gain, but not against taxes arising out of other sources of income.

    Request you to please advise on the following stock as have only 50,000 cash at hand.
    Stock       Qty     Cost Price  CMP      P/L %
    Evinix      15000    3.15       1.02      -67.62 %
    Kalidas View … There must be something wrong with this counter, although the accounting statements and Auditors reports disclose nothing irregular. One important factor is that while the company has revenue of Rs 160 crores, its trade debtors (Rs 61.73 crores) and Inventory (Rs 55 crores) as at 31/3/2010 appear to suggest that the company’s products are not selling quickly and when sold, the debtors are not paying quickly. Inventory is the easy play to manipulate the profits because the Auditors can never verify it as of past date – they have to rely only directors/ certification.

    In short term, I do expect the market to perform better and index may gain upto 18,800 at the most. If you have good resources, you may buy 10,000 shares at CMP or Alternatively, you may sell 50% and retain the balance. When the company starts performing better then only you buy more. For instance, if you have sold 7500 @ 1.02 now, and later on if the stock goes to Rs 1.32, you may then buy back but your loss will be only Rs 0.30 or at the most Rs 2000. However, you are assured at that time that you are with a company that is going to perform better and better. I suggest instead of buying more now, better sell 50% and use the proceeds for other stocks which are better in quality.

    Zee News 1000     15.91      10.85    -31.8 %
    Buy 750 shares at CMP using the proceeds of Evinix Accessories

    IOC         200     396.13     301.4    -23.91 %
    Kalidas View … Buy 50 more at CMP

    HPCL       200     416.58     333.65   -19.91 %
    Kalidas View … BUY 50 more

    MTNL       250      55.84       44.75    -19.86 %
    Kalidas View … Do nothing

    Satyam    1950    77.26       67.05    -13.22 %
    Kalidas View … Sell about 450 shares and use the proceeds to buy IOC and HPCL above. The idea is that you are taking a loss of 13% on small quantity (incurring loss of about Rs 2800 or about and using the proceeds to high quality stocks having about 24% to 20% losses without investing new money

    Ruchi Infr 500      34.61       21.1     -39.03 %
    Kalidas View … Be a buyer at Rs 18 or below. Buy about 500 more. Do not buy now because the market for infra is not so good. You will not lose money on this counter if you have patience.

    RPOWER  575     213.16     122.6     -42.48 %
    Kalidas View … Too late to sell now. and too early to put in fresh money until the company’s plan to obtain gas supply is resolved. Buy 225 more when you have money. It will take over 2 years before the stock comes to break even though.

    SPICEJET  500      53.26       39.25   -26.31 %
    Kalidas View … Do nothing. you will not only break even but will also come to profit after about 6 months. The company’s business is growing. The only negative of this company was higher oil prices due to war in middle east and another political scandal involving the promoter. However, please note that he paid Rs 48 for obtaining majority stake in this company. When this company gets out of negative news, it could rise even 20% in a day. My target for this company is Rs 200 or more in 18 months. It could be shorter if the war ends in Middle East, oil prices go down and Rupee goes higher to make the cost lower. I am not asking you to buy now, because the losses 26% may seem large, but the stock can recover entire loss in just 2 or 3 days of rally.

    TTML       4500     22.98       15       -34.73 %
    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 24, 2011 Buy 1500 more from fresh funds. Otherwise, ride the rally in Satyam for the time being and when you sell it use the proceeds to buy here. It may be noted that the March end result of the company will be profitable due to one time gain in selling some stake in June or before. The stock is weak now, and may remain so for a while because almost all telecom stocks are weak. The company may be losing in absolute term but they are not cash losses, because the cost of depreciation is very high.

    Noida, India

  33. Dear sir ,
    1. Is there any special reason why your latest article is not published here but on scribd.
    2. Some info i thought will be useful :
    Megan Scully has a thorough article on the National Journal website looking into the massive cost of maintaining a no-fly zone and attacking Gaddafi’s ground troops. The first day cost the United States around $100 million alone, she estimates.

    Meanwhile, it generally costs $10,000 per hour, including maintenance and fuel, to operate F-15s and F-16s. Those costs do not include the payloads dropped from the aircraft. The B-2s dropped 45 Joint Direct Attack Munitions, or JDAMS, which are 2,000-pound bombs that cost between $30,000 and $40,000 apiece to replace.
    sachin ,pune, india

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 22, 2011
    Presenting article need HTML formating which is sometime difficult under present theme. Further, this article may not be appealing to Indian investors who are interested only in what to buy in India. This is why we posted the well formatted articles in PDF form for international investors.

  34. sir,
    I have remained out of your site from the time you changed the page of your column. though i did join in initially somehow i did not find reading as comfortable and finally i gave up on this page. But now i feel so relieved when i peeped in one day to see the same old pages back again which seems so convenient to read with the flow being continuous. THANK YOU SIR.

  35. India     Stock      Varun Shipping
    What are your views on Varun Shipping( NSE :VARUNSHIP ) CMP of the stock is 25.95  .   52 week H/L is 54.95/24.40. Other statistics are-
    Market Cap 390.02   EPS (TTM) 2.33     P/E : 11.16
    Price/Book :0.48 Div Yield(%): 3.08

    Please oblige me with your observation on the stock.
    Vatsal    New Delhi   India   22/3/2011

    Not bad to buy and hold with good dividend payments. It is relatively under capitalized and business growth is not very significant. However, it is considered to have largest fleet of LPG carrier which business will grow 200% in next 5 years. Whether the company will take advantage of such rise in business volume remains to be seen. It is otherwise a staid stock and at the moment it has 3 factors against and 1 in favour.

    FACTORS AGAINST: Higher interest rate, higher oil prices, weaker rupee (that enhances its Foreign currency loan liability). However, if our view on rupee holds good, the company may win during the days of rising rupee.
    FACTORS IN FAVOR: LPG sector – fastest growing sector for which it is currently a good leader for importation of the cargo and can assure it good volume growth

    It is a good buy on investment hold basis. It is not good for traders or short term investors though.


  36. India, Stocks, Cairn India.,  Reg: Future direction


    BSE: 532792   |   NSE: CAIRN   |   ISIN: INE910H01017

    I have 1000 Cairn at around 345 Rs average. The open offer got Sebi nod and I think it is at 355. I do not see a point of surrendering shares at this price as the current price is 350.

    What would you suggest? I can hold if for life time but is it worth or I should Move to some other stock. I am sure lot of readers here will need advice on this and are confused just like me.

    Rakesh, Mumbai, India

    Kalidas Says … Monday, March 21, 2011
    Advice was already given in the past. Stay with it – open offer or no open offer. Mandatory offer never makes money for investors. Once it is out of way,. Anil Agarwal may come out with the development plans. Higher oil prices are in his favour. It is possible that he might come out with IPO within next 12 months. After the approval by GOI and SEBI as you have said, brace up with more positive and price friendly news from Anil Agarwal of Sterlite Industries. Almost all stocks in his stable will benefit, but make sure that Government of India has formally accepted his take over. (no rumors, only facts)

  37. Hello Kalidasji,
    Just wanted to confirm with you if it would be rationale to short EURUSD at 1.42693 (resistance) and then cover it at 1.29774 which is a strong support zone.
    When anything gets too popular, it collapses. The same thing happened with EURUSD last April and November as well.
    Your advice in this regard will be highly appreciated.
    Thanks and Regards,
    Anup Maheshwari
    New Jersey, USA, 21st March, 2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, March 21, 2011
    Answer is straight NO. You can not compare the past with present with different cirucumstances. There was no Tsunami or quake at that time, and if at all you want to play, better play with the options, not futures so that losses would be limited. Visit ino.com to and FXSTREET.com for real time exchange rates. It also displays the option prices.

    You may be right on technical basis but the following situation is different than past practices:

    1. Although Japan has printed more yen and dis not sell the dollar, its prospects of selling dollar in favour of yen might prompt China to sell its treasury ahead of Japan so as not get caught in nap. We do not know what Japan will do ahead, because it has over 20 years wearing only horse glasses to look only at dollar. Tsunami has changed all that. IMF assesses the damage at $ 235 billions after 10 days whereas we assessed it at $300 billion on very first day.

    2. Deutche Telecom has sold its T-mobile stake to AT&T for $ 39 billion of which $25 billion is receivable in cash. If it choses to take home the money, Euro will go up and dollar down due to their selling of dollar. It may not happen immediately because such sale needs Anti Trust clearance which may not be forthcoming soon. The selling may be deferred but not cancelled at the moment
    3. Japan is in terrible mess. It will be forced to sell dollar and buy yen to meet its domestic needs, in spite of the fact that it still has choice to print more Yen – but how long?
    4. Almost all insuers, reinsurers, Japanese private investors and funds, might sell dollar assets and buy Yen which may lower dollar against Yen more ( and less against Euro, nevertheless there will be psychological effect to go low on dollar and high on local currency. Further, they can not print Yen as the Japanese government does. They have to buy Yen from the market against dollars
    5. Interest Rate Factor: EU has already mentioned about raising interest rate in Eurozone soon. Higher oil prices due to Libya action and unwillingness of US to raise the interest rates there, may give arbitrage benefits to Euro holders. Hedge funds will come out of dollar position in favour of Euro and Yen
    6. Gadaffi factor – do not write him off as yet. He is a wily person and is capable of doing anything. He once destroyed Passenger plane killing over 300 Americans. This time he may chose all three targets – American, British and Europeans. (France especially). He is the only ruler capable of destroying several passenger planes in the sky belonging to US, UK and Europe interests (especially France) if driven to the wall, and play extreme havoc in currency market against dollar.

      It is also possible that he may cause Libya to leave United Nations who has been after almost all Arab nations here and there imposing sanctions and acts of war in the name of coalition. If he does that, other Arab nations may join him too – they are looking for leadership and want to act collectively. United Nation would plunge into crisis by sudden loss of membership en masse.

      I do not say that this may happen, but such days are coming closer day by day. Iraq, Labanon, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and now Libya – all muslim nations one by one. There is a limit of tolerance for them too. (From your stand point, this may not be relevant in short term, and you may ignore this potential longer term development for the short term position you are talking about)

      Everything is fair in love and war is what he believes. He is not like Mubarak who will give up the battle. Do not forget that he lost his Son at the hands of American bombing on Libya in the past.

      A muslim father never pardons the killers of his lineage. He may want to join his son in heaven or hell wherever he is, after discharging his function as lovable, faithful and loyal Muslim abbu or father.

      REJOINDER: Read this latest report: Tripoli, March 20: Embattled Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi has pledged to take revenge in response to the US-led war alliance’s airstrikes and ship-launched missile attacks against the country. Speaking in a brief audio message broadcast on state television early on Sunday morning, Gaddafi described the attacks as a “barbaric, unjustified…
      The Siasat Daily 2011-03-20

      REJOINDER 2:France, which has spearheaded the attack on Libya, is most vulnerable to counter revenge attack by Libya at the moment. The distance between France and Libya is just 1500 kms that is about 1.25 hour journey for war planes to attack France.

      Gen Gadaffi has learned from Japan quake recently how crucial and terrifying the troubles at nuclear power facilities. France has almost 58 Nuclear Power plants, many within striking distance from Libya.

      France is also the largest electricity producer and exporter in Europe, exporting to Netherland, Britain, Italy, Belgium and Germany. If the Libyans make even cursory attack on some of the nuclear power installations, it will play havoc because many cities dependent on electric supply from France might face darkness, and also the mere mention of risk of radiation will drive the neighboring consumer nations nuts.

      It is said that those who live in glass houses do not throw stones at others. France has taken biggest gamble to its detriments in our opinion. What was the necessity for France to launch or pioneer the attack on Libya – it had no enmity whatever. Many countries in their policy of appeasement of United States go so far that they ultimately hurt themselves.

      Overconfident Coalition forces will learn this teaching hard way.

  38. Dear sir ,
    Gentle reminder on my email query , hope you get time to address it .
    Sachin , Pune, India

    Kalidas Says … Monday, March 21, 2011
    Sorry, I forgot. Remind me by email and not in this forum unless your original query was addressed to here.

    Also all personal queries in future may please be directed to the following email address:



    India     Stock      Meghmani Organics
    What are your views on Meghmani organics ( NSE :MEGH ) CMP of the stock is 13.45.   52 week H/L is 22.75/11.55. Other statistics are-
    Market Cap-342.05 EPS 2.22        Face Value 1.00
    Book Value 19.58    Div Yield(%) 2.97
    Please oblige me with your observation on the stock.


    Vatsal    New Delhi   India   21/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, March 21, 2011
    No views as I do not follow this stock closely. It is too technical for me for its product range. Further, there was some fire at his plant in recent February which may hurt its sales. Its debtors are paying after 4 months, and with tight credit, such period may extend more and lower its sales.

    Nevertheless it appears to be good company with reasonable price. I am not sure of its prospects though. There is nothing very negative about the company except that the market is against it, so also the slowing economy in nee future.

    Further, it has more regional following (in Gujarat) than national following which dilutes the investors interest. I normally follow the stocks with national appeal.

    Not a bad investment but there are many other interesting and better bargains than what you have picked.


    Dear Sir,
    Below is the link regarding RIL gas output 

    Relaince has Commented on lower gas output in coming years, therefore my question is how do you see this Development for Petronet Lng?

    The CMP of Petronet is 120, so do you advise to buy Petronet at this level or wait for the correctin in its stock price? 


    Kalidas Says … Monday, March 21, 2011
    Positive for Petronet. It has long term contracts with Qatar and also Australia very recently at higher price than RIL would have charged to the market. When RIL announced its production and distribution plan, the Petronet had plummeted on fears of lower profitablity due to its existing high price contracts.

    The gas prices are on high. RIL is deliberately understating production to get higher price for its gas supply and also hurt Anil Ambani for his gas based fertilizer plant by causing him to consider higher than expected gas price. ]

    That helps the Petronet. If Anil Ambani goes away from RIL, he will come to Petronet.

    I do not know why the Readers are asking me again and again whether they should buy Petronet at current price or so, when I have specifically informed them to wait until it goes to Rs 92 as first point of entry. CMP 120 is nearly 33% higher. If you want to pay higher, it is your choice. My upward target of Rs 250 remain same on 18 months basis.

    Dear Sir,
    I have read your views on housing market going down in near future. However, one finds that these days a number of builders are again very actively enagaged in marketing apartments/villas etc in NOIDA and Gurgaon. What is your view, should I take a call and invest into real estate in Gurgaon now, when the prices are still low in peripheral areas or later when you expect a down turn?
    Thank you in advance, Regards,
    Vijay,New Delhi, INDIA
    20 Mar, 2011

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, March 20, 2011
    I am not familiar with Noida. My views were general in nature because most of the buyers of real estates are heavily dependent on bank borrowings which are likely become expensive day by day. You have seen the interest rates rising across the spectrum and deposit rates have reached as high as 10% on long term deposits. How could bank go on financing at 8% to 12% for long?

    Further, the ratio of black money to white money has worsened. A few years ago, most of the flats were having almost 100% white money, but of late due to scandals and corruptions, the builders are obliged to pay thousands of crores to politicians out of black money. They have changed the apartment prices from 100% white to almost 50% black and 50% white like olden days. This makes an individual to buy the property difficult. He has to pay black money for school or college donations, then for property, then jobs – the cost of corruption has made inroads into practically every major asset.

    Reply to your Specific Query
    I do expect good correction from July onwards, especially after monsoon (October onwards, near Deepawali) in metropolitan ABCD cities such as Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai. Land prices may not correct much, but built in apartments may correct more. The peripheral suburbs in above cities may correct more than prime area in the main city. This is general observation. Property prices are sometime location specific, so if the supply at the named location is less, the demand remain strong and prices may correct more on paper but not in actual deal.

    If you are buying the property in Noida which you consider as low prices compared to other, and for your own use, you may buy it. Please note that while the prices are not marked down as yet, the demand side is relaxed.

    Further, builders and developers will always be in market at all times, good or bad. It is their business to develop, build and sell.

  42. INDIA, OMC, Deregulation, Reg: Gas – Alternative fuel

    Dear Sir,

    I have been wondering for some time what could happen if government mandates transporters (trucks, tempos, etc) moving to CNG (or LPG) to contain pollution and thereby also reduce diesel usage. Indian Government could then go ahead and deregulate diesel prices as it would then be consumed majorly by private vehicle owners. I feel reducing consumption may nullify the effect of diesel price deregulation causing more profitability to OMC (more to IOC) but reducing their revenue from diesel.

    To some extent the article below shows even American government looking for moving to gas based vehicles though this is not directly related to deregulation but their plan to move to alternate fuel.


    The major theme of this article is around Saudi Arabia thinking of reducing their oil consumption (I don’t know why?) and American Government looking for alternate fuel in the form of gas.

    This link will start an audio but if you want to read the article rather than listening to it, you could try closing your browser which will open up a small window and on pressing CANCEL button, it will allow you to read the article rather than listeninng to it.

    I would appreciate your views on this.

    Hitesh, Mumbai, INDIA

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, March 20, 2011
    The entire presentation is “hype” for penny stocks which the presenter may be aiming for. Gas in place of oil is in our theme for more than two years, and in fact, I have suggested the readers of this blog to buy aggressively gas based stocks like Indraprashtha Gas, Petronet, GSPL, GAIL etc.

    Shale gas is a new technology, and Reliance Industries Ltd., recently ventured into it by investing over a billion dollar plus to exploit this technology. There is also a trend for almost all major oil refineries to sell their refining operations and focus more on gas based resources. Since our recommendations on the above gas based stocks, the stocks have tripled or quadrupled in matter of two years. These are large companies, not penny stocks, whom we can trust.

    We mentioned at the time of RIL’s acquisition of shale gas based resources that this technology is not proven and it has tremendous risk in exploration and other geophysical risks. I give you one practical example – Take a board of plywood and then place a few rubber balloons below it. Now either blow it with a cycle pump or use nitrogen gas tanks (same as used by the balloon vendors in the street). You will find the board rising to the extent of gas blown into the baloons. Now, remove the gas or air inside the baloon – what happens – the board simply collapses to the ground.

    This is what is going to happen to Shale gas extraction, I believe (I am also a good Science student with Physics and Chemistry as base). To extract a shale gas, you have to drill holes into the earth plates below which the gases are found. Once the gas is extracted, the earth plates will collapse that will cause earthquakes similar to one in Japan and ensuing tsunami.

    On the contrary, another cheaper and most viable source of energy is the Solar power, Nuclear Power and one more which has been concealed from the general public is the “rocket fuel power” which propels the rockets into space using only Hydrogen and Oxygen, the two components of water, and causing no pollution at all. US is withholding this technology from the world in the name of national security. Just imagine if this technology is adopted in normal cars and trucks and power plants to use water as incredible source of power? In fact, water was the first source of power driving Rails (First invention was steam engine that converts the water into powerful steam that drives the engine). Earlier, coal was used to heat up the water, and today, Solar power is used to heat up the entire homes. I am living in United States, and my daughter’s home – 4000 sft – is entirely run on solar power, from electricity to water heating. She saves almost $200 per month as result.

    We based our gas based stocks due to entirely new reason – its abundance in India (Bombay high) and world’s largest gas supply resouce – Qatar – is nearby. Almost all refineries in India are dependent on this supply source. We anticipated the conversion of public vehicles in major cities to gas based engines – Auto rikshas, taxis etc are now compulsorily driven by CNG or Compressed Natural Gas engines. The conversion kit costs anywhere from Rs 5000 to 25,000 in auto rikshas and cars respectively. I was about to buy a car in India with dual technology – Petrol driven engine and gas driven engine – but the CNG was not available at the gas stations in smaller cities, so dropped that idea. Gas driven vehicles cost less in India because gas is heavily subsidized. If the prices are allowed to rise, the advantage will be diluted.

    Yes, with the abundance of gas from KG basin owned by Reliance, that will be used even for gas based fertilizer, the use of gas in future will be several times. Gas as extracted from basin or sea do not pose the risk of destabilization of earth plate because the moment the gas comes out, the water gushes in to balance the equilibrium. It may not happen for Shale gas extraction. Most of the shale gas fields are on land, in desert lands, where the risk of earthquakes is most. In India too, the major quakes took place in desert area.

    Still, it is an evolving technology. We have to see how they address geophysical risks that may follow. in the meantime, we continue to believe in traditional gas as extracted from the soft surfaces below rather than hard shale gas based extraction. Rajasthan and Hyderabad have lot of such shales (in fact wherever you find marbles, granites or slate stones, you may find shale gas below those hard stone surfaces). I am not expert but I can guess some of the things safely compared to other non science based students or readers of this blog.

  43. Sub: Diesel Price Deregulation
    Dear Anil Sir,
    Go through following link. Both IOC & BPCL looking for Diesel in international market through tendering process & IOC is unable to procure their required quantity at their liking price whereas BPCL only get part of their quantity at very high premium. So in this scenario it will be very difficult to cap the retail price at Pump.
    In one of the recent interview (Not able to find the link) Pranab Mukarji admitted that forget the high Oil price. It is the smooth supply chain of Oil at that high price that is matter. He also hinted that deregulation of Diesel Price is already accepted in principal. So it is delayed due to political compulsion.
    Parag, Surat, India 19th March 2011

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, March 19, 2011
    It proves that the effective oil prices are much higher than prevailing in the market and shown on the quotes. Two months down the road, the input cost of oil will be so high that the Government will have no alternative but to allow rise on diesel and almost entire range of products such as Kerosene and LPG.

    Alternative to price rise is subsidy. For instance in the news quoted, 18000 tons (1 ton = 6 to 8 barrels) or about 126,000 barrels of diesel oil (each barrel is about 159 litres or 42 US gallons) will cost $9/brl premium or $1,134,000 more (Rs 5 crore more. India imports millions of tonnes of oil every year.

    Japan related price rise may not stick for long though. It is temporary dislocation. Even Japan can not import too much of oil because its refining capacity will be limited.

    I have mentioned in my current article “quake in Japan, tremors in America” that if certain wrongs are continued for too long, the nature comes in and corrects it violently. In India, subsidy regime has contained the price rise for far too long, and there will be time anytime soon when India will be forced to abandon the subsidy and allow natural price rise. It will be upsetting to the market because huge price rise in Rupee terms will push up the inflation higher, and interest rates may rise to 12% at least as originally predicted by by more than 6 months back. The interest rates on deposits have already risen to 9.25% for deposits > 16 months and for senior citizen to 10%. When the bank cost of deposits and borrowing rises, the lending rates on housing too will rise which will collapse the property market especially from second half of 2011 – just watch and see.

    Another wrong, keeping Rupee depressed for far too long by continuous sterilizing operation by RBI, will also correct violently on same principle – Nature will force the violent correction. It happened in Japan, it happened to Yen ( at one time on New York exchange at about reset time of 5:00 PM, the Yen rosé from 79.75 to 76.32 in just 26 minutes. (79.75 was supposed to be the key support level).

    When RBI abandons or forced to abandon the sterilization measures, and allow the rupee to rise naturally which may cause it to rise to almost 26 level to dollar, the real progress in India will start, and India may emerge into global economic power displacing even Japan. India will come to third place or even second place if China does not allow its currency to rise. If Rupee rises to 26, the $1.8 trillion of Indian economy will suddenly look like $3.2 trillion economy (without any physical quantitative rise) because the world economy is measured in dollar terms. Higher your currency, higher up is your ranking in global ladder.

    But we have to wait. Before those glorious days come, we have to go through very painful days for at least 9 months to may be 2 years. It is therefore time to buy OMC during the period of Government of India and RBI’s days of stupidity.

  44. India, Stock, Mphasis an HP company
    HP holds 60% of stake in Mphasis, it was inherited from EDS.  I guess You may know Electronic Data Systems was bought by HP few years back.  Mphasis is a subsidiary of HP now.  MPHASIS gets business through HP.  MPHASIS has given 30% price discount to HP recently.  HP is playing CAT & MOUSE Game.  There will be a Topline growth in Mphasis but wont be Bottom line growth.  HP also wants to eat up the Cash in Hand Mphasis.
    CLSA slams Mphasis on corporate governance; stock down 20%

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 18, 2011
    Investors usually have short memory. 20% fall only because of some discount to some customers of HP is not outrageous, in my opinion. Follow the stock and when it stops falling, pick up a few shares, with more on greater consolidation. Buy more when the stock after consolidation gains about 8%. In that case, you will be friend with the trend. The name of HP is too reputed to ignore.

  45. India/Economy/Diesel Price Deregulation
    Dear Kalidas ji,
    Your prediction about diesel price deregulation in India seems to be gaining momentum. Today also, TOI mentions Kaushik Basu, the government’s chief economic advisor mentioned about it. Last week, I read in ET Montek Singh Ahluwalia supporting the idea. And then around 15 days back, there was one more article quoting finance ministry sources that they want to reduce diesel subsidy (don’t recall now where I read that).
    It appears that govt is starting to make the environment about it and set expectations while gauge the initial reactions on this politically sensitive issue.
    Do you think, with so many people hinting about it, govt intends to go for it rather quickly? If so, how much time do you think it would take? May be post elections in 5 states!
    Mumbai, India

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 18, 2011
    I am not worried about my investment into IOC and its co-brothers. The government is having little choices. Either bear the subsidy or let the consumers bear the higher prices. Huge budget deficit that may ensue in first choice is not acceptable to the Government. I do not want to speculate or make judgement on political statement or overtones. I am comfortable with the losses of 10% when the gains of 500% to 800% in 3 to 7 years is as glaring and endearing as Taj Mahal in full moon light. Election or No Election – the beauty remains, and in all probability, the decision of partial deregulation should arrive before May 2011 latest.


    Dear Sir,
    I hold 1000 shares each @ 180/- & 250/-respectively bought about 2 months ago.CMP is 195/- & 275/-Please advise on future prospects or targets

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 18, 2011
    Stay with them and also observe our norms for posting all the time.

  47. India  Stock  MRPL
    Respected Sir,

    My stock query on MRPL on 16/3/2011  has skipped your attention.Though I had to repeat it because of the CMP.The CMP of the stock is now 60.80.Sir, please let me know the entry level, price projection and the time horizon,owing to the present market scenario.
    Thankyou Sir,

    Lakshmi  Lucknow India 18/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 17, 2011
    I have explained thousand times before, so do not ask me this question again and again. Do one thing. Find out the current EPS of MRPL, then find out the growth rates of MRPL from historical numbers. Then work out the prospective EPS for coming year. And then multiply by PE of about 12 times to work out the potential sale price or Target price. If you are taking one year as base, it is one year target. If you are working out 2 years forward EPS, then it is 2 years time frame for that target.

  48. Bullion / Silver / World Markets

    Could you help us understand how you arrive at the price trends of Silver over a month. I am not able to understand the why the silver price fluctuates as you predict.

    Is this being influenced by the Comex? If so, how?

    Please enlighten.

    With Regards,
    Anshuman Patra, Kolkata , India, 18-March-2011

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 17, 2011
    Already explained before that Silver contracts will be expiring on 29/3, that is. March contract. Although most of the positions have been shifted to May, still there is huge demand for pending contracts for physical delivery.

    It is the question of making judgment out of situation that may unfold by month end. It is my experience that guides me, and of course, I do have intuitive sense which was cultivated out of years of practice.

    Judgement is a judgement. I could also err too. But I am a rational man. I stick my neck out explaining whatever details I can. Either you take it or just drop it.

  49. INDIA/Comodity/ Buy gold/silver

    Hi Anil Jee,
    You had a view that in March 2011 itself or somewhere around, silver has a immediate target of 56K & 60K.On the other hand please refer to your reply to Mr. Bobby,Singapore on17th March ” Do not be in hurry now. Let the nuclear reactors in Japan explode, and let the markets drop strongly. Gold and Silver may have hiccup drop and at that time just buy it”..Do you mean to say that the nuclear event in Japan might bring these metals down substantially…is the rise after 19th March still intact in Silver ? Please advise.Thanks in advance.

    Best Regards,
    Vandana Kothari
    Udaipur ,Rajasthan,INDIA
    17 March 2011

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 17, 2011
    We mentioned in February about buying Silver in second week of March. However, there was no Tsunami or Earthquake in Japan at that time. When the major problem like nuclear reactor malfunctioning due to quake is around, with unspeakable consequences, one has to become flexible with regard to target and time frame. Such events happen only once in hundred years.

    My advice to buy in first two weeks of correction has borne fruit. The Silver did drop to 33.80 level at one time and remained for a while near 34 level. The nuclear risk in Japan is still not away, and in fact the things are worsening over there. Yes, the end of month is approaching fast, and it might be a good idea to buy the Silver now in couple of stages to take advantage of sudden drop if something happen in Japan. With dollar weakening and prospects of Japan and other countries selling US treasury/currency more, the only savior in the world will be gold and silver. The stock markets are at their most vulnerable points. If nuclear reactor bursts, the market could be in a free fall with indices losing nearly 20% in matter of days.

    Do not therefore have too much of itching in your hand. Except for gold and silver, be careful in investing into stocks. There may not be one or two days of fall but almost 5 to 7 days in a row. One may buy only on fourth day morning or thereafter of continuous fall.

    Yes, my target of Silver rallying from 19/3 or Monday onwards (20/3) is intact. The event of quake and tsunami took place earlier in the month that gave opportunity to buy these metals cheap.

    Silver may move faster than gold during last 10 days of March, until at least 29/3.

  50. India, Investment in equity  for 12 months 
    Dear Kalidas Sir,
    I have Rs 3.5 Lacs  which I can use for pre-payment of my housing loan (currently outstanding is 13L ) any time between  now till Mar 2012. So I want to use this opportunity to invest in market to make most of it and would like to track these separately from my existing portfolio. If you can suggest some stocks , the buy  range  and possibly the timing.
    Following are my holdings
    Gold  *(FTF) – 100 gms   13% profit
    Rpower (RNRL converted)   513 nos  CMP : 125  – Loss 40%
    Satyam : 800 nos  Buy price : 87.30  CMP : 67.7   Loss -22%
    IOC  : 50 nos Buy price 375 CMP : 306  Loss -24%
    MRPL : 500  Buy price : 81  CMP : 61  Loss -24%
    Thanks in anticipation.
    Atharva , Pune , India  Mar 17th  2011.

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 17, 2011
    If you are a tax payer, do the following (Selling the stock physically will book the loss which can be claimed as set off from regular income saving almost 30% of taxes, depending on the tax slab you are in)

    GOLD: Stay with it
    RPOWER: Sell it to book loss and buy back 700 on following day.
    Satyam: Sell first 800 near close of the day and buy 1200 next day morning.
    IOC: Sell 50 near close of the day and buy back 100 on following day morning
    MRPL: Sell 500 near close and buy back 800 on following day morning

    Do not wait till last day. Finish above before 25/3 latest

  51. Hello Kalidasji,
    I just wanted to know if you are anticipating a major crash like 2008 in S&P. Also it appears that Wheat is at a support level at present around 650. Is it worth entering into this commodity at present?
    Thanks and Regards,
    Anup Maheshwari
    New Jersey, USA, 16th March, 2011

  52. Singapore – Gold – Is the price right to buy back ?


    Earlier this month i sold about 60% of my Gold Holdings (1 kg+) at a selling price of 1428 USD p.o, with a view to buy back in correction. Is the current price of 1391 USD p.o (@ 2.5% discount to my earlier sell price), good price to buy back the same quantity sold earlier ?

    Bobby, Singapore

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, March 16, 2011
    Do not be in hurry now. Let the nuclear reactors in Japan explode, and let the markets drop strongly. Gold and Silver may have hiccup drop and at that time just buy it, do not wait for my answer. I will not reply.

  53. India     Stock     Mphasis
    What are your views on Mphasis after the recent turmoil of the stock.Is corporate governance such a serious matter for this ,that it was dragged to 52 week low.CMP of the stock is 398.35. 52 week H/L is 711/395.75. Other statistics are-

    Market Cap-8388         EPS 46.08       Face Value 10

    Book Value 138054      Div.40%  
    Please oblige me with your observation on the stock.
    Anjali Lucknow India 16/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, March 16, 2011
    I do not know this stock at all. It is said that it is HP Company – that is – Hewlett Packard? or some local Indian name? yes, the result is good, and it is a profitable company but I do not have any idea of its background. The only thing I could see is the heavy investment of cash into debt mutual funds. May be you can buy it but allow 3 more days to let Japan nuclear events to play out. If the rupee strengthens, the high tech stocks may come down when you can pick them up.

  54. India Stock Confidence Petrolium
    Hi Kalidas,
    Your stock pick on Confidence Petro is trading sub 20 levels.CMP 16.50.Can I add it confidently to my portfolio.I will be grateful if you please give me the target and the time horizon.
    Jeet  Delhi India 16/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, March 16, 2011
    It is certainly cheap trading at about 8 to 9 times P/E. But due to weak market, the price of Rs 16.50 is intermediate. Wait for some correction in the market which may come due to very weak global market. While present price is not bad, take advantage of weak market and make buying at about Rs 13.85 to 14.35 with more aggressive buying at still lower prices. Follow this stock movement closely.

  55. INDIA, STOCK, Essar Oil, Buy or wait for below 100

    Please suggest on Essar oil (CMP 123), as it is running up again. In second half of 2010, you bought @132. Will it go up again to 155? is this time to accumulate or to wait for below 100?

    Thanks and Regards,
    Krishna, 16th March 2011.

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, March 16, 2011
    Refinery stocks are best bought when the oil prices are in downtrend. It is not the case now. Further, while the earnings of the company have improved, but there is no consistencies. Nevertheless, the stock is not worthy enough to get into until it drops to Rs 80 to 85 region. OR let the situation in Middle East stabilize. Please note that due to nuclear issues in Japan, it is better to wait for another one to two weeks to invest into the market. If there is sudden shock like some major explosion in Japan, then go ahead and buy it on panic sale in the market.

  56. Hi, I would like to have your suggestions on below stocks for buying in India.

    India, Stocks, Mindtree Ltd CMP: Rs.372.4 and Mahindra Satyam: CMP Rs.67/-. Should I buy now?

    I am a small investor with Less than 1Lac amount. Please advice whether to buy the same now?

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, March 16, 2011
    Observe our norms while posting queries.

    Satyam – you may buy now or preferably in correction. The global markets are weak and until we know more about solution to nuclear reactor problem in Japan, there is no point of taking any position in any stock. Wait for correction and buy. No buying target, but anything below 56 in deep correction will be a good buy. Under normal circumstances, <60 is good level to enter.

    MINDREE – know nothing about this company or stock. I do not usually cover high tech stocks unless they are in top 10 leagues.

  57. INDIA,STOCKS, EVINIX ACCESSORIES,QTY-5000@3.52,7000@1.72.CMP-0.95,Reg:Trapped Need SOLUTION?                                    

    Request your advice.

    Anagha.N,Mumbai,INDIA,16 March 2011. 

    Please let me know the entry level, Price projection and time frame for the stock.CMP is INR 63.Sorry for forgetting to put CMP.
    Thankyou Sir,

    Lakshmi Lucknow India 16/3/2011

  59. Commodity-Gold-Silver reg:query -contrary view
    Dear Sir,
    Reposting my query. May be it missed your attention.

    you macro analysis has been exemplary as always.  However, I do have a contrary view/query on continued bull run of gold and silver atleast over next one year.
    1. you refer to bullish private investor Vs Banks which have taken short position.  Not sure who and where such bullish private investors exisit. I always thought, people having billions are virtully controlled by the bankers, who know more about these billionairs.
    2. Secondly, when every I observer retail participation pouring in, whether in stocks or commodities, they get crushed badly. Of late, all queries are either on Gold – silver  or OMC.
    Request your opinion and warning if any to fellow followers.
    Best Regards,

  60. India, Bangalore, Precious Metals, Gold or Silver, Reg: MMTC prices.

    Hi msn and other followers of Kalidas:

    MMTC sells siver as what they call as SANCHI silver. They are marked up compared to Bangalore refinaries or local stores.

    My observations is
    Bangalore refinaries is better. they also buy back.

    On Kalidas’s word I bought 1 KG silver (41K inc Taxes) and have been gifting only silver articles to family/friends on any occation. Have seen only appriciation.



    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    MMTC is fooling the investors. The investors also mortgage their basic common sense and intelligence. They just panick into buying without verifying the contents, prices etc. They just go by one notion – I want to buy Silver” that’s all.

    Even if I have to buy waste paper, I will check out everything, whereas while buying precious metals, the investors have to check out everything. Nothing is running away. The opportunities always come for every metal, evey stock, every property and every bond. Patience is virtue for the investors and Panick (and impulse) is its enemy

  61. World financial markets & Gold / Silver
    Dear Guruji,
    Today it is learnt that, Bank of Japan pumped another 8 trillion yen, or $98 billion, into the market. However the Nikkei was down 14% during trading. Now, Dow is down by 240 points. On the surface gold should be rising as a safe haven investment. But not so and hence, it seems investors are using gold as currency, selling it for cash during this crisis (Particularly in Japan).
    Today, prices of precious metals corrected as per your analysis. As of now (20.30 IST), Gold went up to 1382$ and Silver to a low of 33.56 $ per ounce and recovered partly. It is believed that further corrections (Gold to 1365 $ and Silver to 32 $) are still not ruled out. Whether I am correct or not? Is it better to wait till this weekend to buy more physical or enter now? Please guide.
    Many of our friends, the followers of CMCA, use to ask for a proper place to buy Gold /Silver and they even wanted to know the correct prices in INR.
    I wish to inform the following with your kind permission. For price comparison one can refer to MMTC offices for gold / silver prices. MMTC sells 30 Kg silver bars alone apart medallions. Alternatively, for gold bullions, can refer to Corporation Bank website. They sell 24 C gold at the lowest prices among all the banks in India.
    Another best source to refer daily price is http://www.bangalorerefinery.com/rates.html.
    At Bangalore refinery, they sell 1 Kg Silver bars also apart form gold bullions.
    At Chennai, for silver bars of 1 Kg (Marked with 999.5 & SUKRA), one among the best places is Sukra jewellery (http://www.sukra.com). They even buy back their own branded silver. They sell silver alone.
    Also one can refer to http://www.belirams.com/bullionrate.asp?area=kolkata for spot prices and for rate comparisons moment by moment converted in to INR.

    With kind regards,
    Manivannan K
    Cuddalore, TN, India,
    22.00 Hrs 15.03.2011

  62. India- bullion-silver correction starting?

    Sir today silver came down with a thud by about 4 % is this the starting of the 3 day trailing correction or is this the turn around time where position should be taken for an upswing?

    Thanks & Regards

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    4% correction is not much when the metal has risen over 30% in last two months. In any case, the correction is related to false strength in dollar and Japan related news affecting almost entire metal industry from steel to nickel to copper to zinc to aluminum.

    Take advantage by placing buy order at $33.50, 31.10, 28.85 in staggered manner. If during intra day, silver falls, the possibility is that your order might get filled. As stated earlier, the silver and gold will beging to move up from 19/3 onwards. Unless something drastic happens in Japan such as nuclear explosion. Even then the gold and silver will be the prime winners.

    Also buy Palladium in steep falls as this. It is perceived that Japanese auto makers’ production may suffer who use palladium, but these auto makers make up the lost production in other plants in China, Malaysia, Indonesia, USA and other places.

  63. Cond.     India   MRPL
    Sorry Sir,
    I also wanted to know about the entry level for  MRPL with your price projection and the time frame.

    Lakshmi Lucknow India 15/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    Sorry, again you flouted the norms. I have no time to check the current prices of every stock. If you need reply, do your basic home work to post the query to conform to our requirements. I hate to reply to readers with incomplete information in their query. Marked for deletion.

  64. India Stock  Tata Global  MRPL
    Respected Sir,
    Can I take position on Tata Global after the recent run up and today’s correction. Can you please let me know the price projection and the time frame.I know that you follow the stock. Recently it went upto Rs.105 (on 11/3/2011) and today’s closing was at 98.50.

    Thanks a lot Sir
    Lakshmi Lucknow India 15/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    Buy it.

  65. Indian   Stock    Satyam

    Hi Anil Sir,

    It appears that Satyam is ready for Take Off,Can I add More at this stage.I have 400 shares at an average price of INR 76.CMP is 67, the volume is also very good nowadays.
    Thankyou Sir
    Anjali lucknow India 15/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    The price difference is not much if you want to buy it just to average down. If you are interested in adding the position, then go ahead and buy it.


    Dear Anil ,

    I am holding Areva T&D at the price of 255 and the CMP 230 .Areva T&D  is owned by  Alstom-Schneider who are two giants of French industrial Base.
    Please suggest if If its a good to hold or i should exit out of this scrip.

    Anil Mittal
    Hyderabad , India
    15th Mar,2011

  67. GLOBAL, COMMODITY, SILVER, Reg: JP Morgan’s Silver Short Positions
    Dear Sir,

    Please visit the following link that throws more light on JP Morgan’s short positions on Silver and why crossing $36 is difficult, but unavoidable.


    Hitesh, Mumbai, INDIA

  68. Commodity-Gold-Silver reg:query -contrary view

    Dear Sir,

    you macro analysis has been exemplary as always.  However, I do have a contrary view/query on continued bull run of gold and silver atleast over next one year.

    1. you refer to bullish private investor Vs Banks which have taken short position.  Not sure who and where such bullish private investors exisit. I always thought, people having billions are virtully controlled by the bankers, who know more about these billionairs.

    2. Secondly, when every I observer retail participation pouring in, whether in stocks or commodities, they get crushed badly. Of late, all queries are either on Gold – silver  or OMC.

    Request your opinion and warning if any to fellow followers.

    Best Regards,


    Dear Kalidas – please refer my previous query on silver price

    I checked with MMTC. The product i bought is 0.999 Silver medallion and they dont sell bars. How good is this product for investment purpose?
    msn, Bangalore

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    Never buy medallions – buy only Silver bars. If you go to the market to sell medallion bar, the silver dealer is not going to pay based on name “medallion” but silver content. You can buy 0.999 silver from Silver bullion dealer, especially in Bangalore such as some mint there for which adequate reference is given by a reader today. Scroll up a bit.

    Do not mix up pure metals with its coins. Coins are meant for collectors who store for some other purpose – antique ness. For investment purpose, use common sense, and just buy the metal in pure form for which there are hundreds of dealers. For medallion, you have only one buyer – MMTC.

    Never mind, you will ultimately make money.

  70. India Stock WWIL
    Hi Kalidas,
     I have 400 WWIL shares purchased at Rs.18/- Whether I will be able to recover my loss.I will be obliged if you please advise me what to do.
    CMP  Rs. 8                             Purchase Price Rs. 18
    Sorry for the inconvinience.

    Jeet Delhi India 15/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    My detailed reply disappeared due to computer glitch. However, I will be brief. The company is technically bankrupt but it is in frontline technology. Its promoters are well established in media industry. The company has been on losing streak for long, but of late the trend is encouraging. Its major cost is interest or too much of debt. further, its Sundry debtor level is very high, but it could be due to lending to its own associates. There must be lot of inter-associate transaction which is not possible for us to analyze under microscope.

    It is at similar stage when the Dish TV was at Rs 14. The company might return to operating profit in second quarter of 2011 which will be known by Mid October, 2011

    Buy 800 now and another 1800 if the stock does slide further. Again, it depends on your risk taking capabilities. Personally, I would buy and give it a ride. I do not think the company might disappear from the scene.

  71. Dear Kalidas sir

    I want to thank you for all the recommendations(though i do not agree with many of your recommendations) but most importantly we must thank you for all the knowledge you are sharing which cannot be learnt in any textbook or business school.

    God bless you.

    I take this opportunity to ask about the nuclear leak in Japan. My question is that with nuclear power no longer safe should india continue to move towards setting up more nuclear plants. There is already move to set up in konkan area which is meeting with lots of resistance from local people. If  nuclear leak happens we know how the people will have to live for the rest of their lives (eg bhopal gas leak).Our politicians who are telling us nuclear power is safe will just disappear to safe havens.

    In view of the events in Japan do you think time has come for stocks like NHPC and SJVN which provide safe energy.

    Abu Dhabi

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    Nuclear power is the cheapest source of power at the moment. It is also non pollutive under normal use. The incident like the quake in Japan and Tsunami that followed, are one in 100 years event. People die every day, whether in Rail accident, auto accident, cancer, diabetes, heart attack, liver failure etc etc. Still the users or consumers do not avoid them. Has smolking disappeared in spite of massive publicity that it causes the cancer? No. Has wine or alcoholic drinking stopped in spite of people dying due to liver disorder caused by such drinks? No. Those who want to die,will die voluntarily.

    A time is going to come when the world automative or planes or rails will be driven by nuclear energy once its protective seal is invented. If protective cover or seal is available in Reactors why not in consumer packs? When the natual gas was invented, it was considered too risky, but today, we are getting same LPG in capsule or small sealed bottles used in portable cooker. Technology change, and they change for better.

    For the time being, there will be many reservations for using nuclear based energy due to post quake and tsunami event in Japan, but can the Tsunami arrive in the deserts of Rajasthan or Tarapur? If we are using coal as general combustion material, for generating power, it will remain so for another 100 years. No one cares whether it is pollutive or not. Those questions are appealing to puritans. The people are interested in “Result” not its “cause”.

    There is nothing like safe energy. Even coal based energy need the extraction of coal which is extremely hazardous – thousands of people die in coal mining explosion – but then whch user cares for them. They are interested in the result or final product that is electricity, not its cause “coal” which has already taken thousands of lives.

    In investment, one does not buy hypes – they sell into them. When the hype dies down, the smart investors loosen the purse and invest. How many people invested in hypes like Real Estate (buying DLF over Rs 600 – CMP <230)). Reliance Power (buying in after market at Rs 800 or Rs 400 after bonus against CMP <100), Punj Lloyds, Reliance Infra, Suzlone etc etc? Today, almost everyone is interested in buying gold or silver, but how many bought it when we strongly recommended it below $ 700 for gold and <$16 for silver? In fact, we were advising buying of silver much below $6 (I bought almost all of my silver at $5.19 or equivalent). May be short term money flow will be directed to the stocks you named. But I for one never invest into power utilities anywhere in the world. So, I do not care whether it is NHPC or others.

  72. Dear Kalidasji,
    I am new to your blog and it’s great. From your posts I read that either it’s OMC or silver or gold, your advice is buying in correction?
    But how can we come to know that the particular scrip has been corrupted?
    Sorry for this layman’s questions, but expecting your valuable reply.
    salem, TN


    Dear Kalidas

    I bought gold at MMTC at lowest market price a year back on your recommendation. with that confidence I bought 3kg silver 999 at MMTC on saturday@67,000 per KG(that time market price was Rs.54,000). is this price OK or did i pay anything more?

    msn, Bangalore

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    How could you pay Rs 67,000 against market price of Rs 54,000? It looks like, you did not buy Silver bar but some coins or similar item. When you buy for investment purpose, you just buy Bars of 0.999 or 0.995 purity in standard size of 5 Oz to 10 Oz or in India in multiples of 100 grams. I do not know what MMTC is selling.

    Think twice before you pay more than 5% of market price. You may have bought some other product or type of Silver, not standard bars.


    Respected Sir,
    As per your recommendations I am planning ti buy 1kg. silver tomorrow  The only hitch that is bothering me is that…. whether if at all it is possible for it to retest the lows of 1980s.In that case I will not be in position to bear the losses.Sir, please dont get angry,I just wanted to get your assurance before the deal.

    Lakshmi Lucknow India 14/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, March 14, 2011
    There is no way that Silver might re-test the level of $5 back to old days. It reached all time high in 80s due to market cornering by Hunt Brothers who collapsed later bringing down the silver prices to all time low.

    However, please note that in every investment there is always a chance of nearly 20% loss and could be 30% to 35% if one enters the investment item after run up. If you buy now, you will be entering at near all time high level for which the downside risk may be more. (30% to 35%). If you are afraid of taking any major loss, then better stay away and invest in the item you are comfortable with.

    Much has been said about Silver by me for over 2 years, so I do not want to rehearse everything to avoid duplication.

  75. India Stock WWIL
    Hi Kalidas,
     I have 400 WWIL shares purchased at Rs.18/- Whether I will be able to recover my loss.I will be obliged if you please advise me what to do.

    Jeet Delhi India 14/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, March 14, 2011
    You have not posted query observing our norms. Read it again and re-post it. Marked for deletion.

  76. Gold->Fake Gold

    Dear Sir, New international gold scam awaiting


    Bangalore, India –  Mar, 13’11: 19:29

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, March 13, 2011
    It is almost one year old news or rumors. It does not give any sense of credibility because it appears to have been released by GATA (Gold Anti Trust Actions) of Bill Murphy, who has been fighting several years old battles with the US government for proper disclosure but has so far failed.

    Earlier, the attempts were made to blame Chinese for fake gold bars. It was reported that both Gold and Tungsten have almost same physical weight. It makes sense that Tungsten bars could have been used in that case because Tungsten is trading at $50 per ounce. It is industrial metal used in lighting (Normal lamp contains tungsten filaments). Explore http://www.infomine.com/ website for mines and mineral related resources.

    The inspection of gold at Fort Knox is generally on weight basis. We do not know whether these gold was ever “essayed” or verified for its purity contents. Further, gold quantity remain same for several years. Most gold used for shorting could not have borne the mark of US Treasury. We do not know the procedure at Fort Knox to receive, store and deliver the gold.

    In my book, I have mentioned fraud at the FED with regard to gold in different way – most of the gold held at the Fort Know were under lien. Refer the chapter on gold – WHERE IS McKENA’s GOLD” in my book “Sub Prime Resolved” which proves beyond doubt that gold was manipulated at highest level in United States.

    Those who are investigating are reaching dead end because there is no access to Fort Knox records, Fed, Treasury with regard to its inventory, audit, inspection or movement. Most central banks do lend gold with the exception of FED, it is told. Because FED is asking other holders of gold to allow shorting of gold from their inventory and keep its own gold under lien to those banks. This is why there is no real inventory with proper 100% free title on gold at Fort Knox. There are lot of accounting manipulation or what they call creative accounting.

    It is only when the real owners of the gold ask for physical delivery of gold that the world would come to know what is the real position of gold lying at Fort Knox. Most of the gold holders in real sense are Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal where the debt crisis is being played out so that sell the gold and help US to recover its huge short position.

  77. India-correcting markets & commodity- Still more correction in Silver before the upsurge??

    Sir as said in the Kitco commentary silver corrected that very day to the levels of 34 something and around closing shot up again to the same old 36 levels,
    So is the 6-9 % correction or the 3 day correction is phased out for now .

    Should we buy this commodity for now or wait till Monday or Tuesday?

    Thanks & Regards

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, March 12, 2011
    Although they say the silver touched the low of $34, I did not see that. Lowest was $34.80 or about and then bounced back even if the gold did not. You may buy some on Monday or Tuesday latest.

    Whenever the dollar rises, gold and silver falls. Due to Japan earthquake, the chances of dollar weakening are more, because Japan needs at least $300 billion equivalent in their own currency – Yen – in my estimate (Yen 25 trillion or 25,000 Y billion). See the Tsunami picture and my comments thereunder on the main page article on Second Financial Crisis (scroll down a bit and you will see large picture about Tsunami and read my comments below that picture). Japan will have to sell dollar and buy Yen.

    In future, Yen may move below 80s due to Japan buying dollar and its obvious unwillingness to participate in future Treasury Auction in US. The rates may rise in USA, dollar will weaken, Yen will rise, even Rupee may also rise, gold and silver will rise smartly too. Eqrthquake is bad for USA because financial tsunami will come there.

  78. stock query- Aurobindo pharma & Halonix Limited

    Sir, can you please give your comment on these two subject stocks. i want to add one pharma stock in my portfolio.

    AURPHA; CMP:189.05:EPS:94.34:P/E:2; BV: 343.51

    PHOLAM; CMP 100, EPS:-VE; P/E: 14.53

    Philip T Ranjan, fujairah, U.A.E

  79. Respected Kalidas Sir,
    INDIA, Following stocks, Reg: Trapped, Need Solution :-   

        (a) BSEL Infra – Qty 1500, Avg C.P. 29 /-, CMP – 5.6/-. Yr of purchase – 2006.
        (b) Kohinoor Broadcast – Qty 7000, Avg C.P – 6.5 /-, CMP – 1.5/-. Yr of purchase – 2007.
        (c) TCI Industries – Qty 15, Avg C.P – 3100 /-, CMP – 1450/-, Yr of purchase – 2010.
        (d) SAAG RR – Qty 500, Avg C.P – 48/-, CMP – 32/-, Yr of Purchase – 2006.
        (e) Patel Integrated Logistics Ltd. Qty – 1100, Avg C.P – 60/-, CMP – 22/-, Yr of purchase – 2007.

    N Manish. Delhi, India. 11 Mar 11.  

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 11, 2011
    None of the above stocks is in my portfolio or even watch list. I can only see your mind – that you believe that if the stocks price is low, say below 30 or 40, then they are cheap, others are expensive. This is why you are basically a penny stock investor. Nothing wrong with the price of 20s or 30s but go for very large companies having turnover of at least Rs 500 crores or so, so that the public is substantially interested, whether as shareholder or suppliers or buyers of the company’s product. We bought Spicejet in early 20s, Petronet in 28 to 38 with GSPL, Essar Oil I used to buy for <15 to <25, Dish TV <14 and even Ashok Leyland <15, Arivind <15. Look at these names – they were all large companies. Large means they had large business or revenue base, whether or not they are making profit is not important, because if a company has sales, it will eventually make money.

    I need time to analyze these stocks. It may take a few days before I could really advise you.

  80. Palladium :A Lost Opportunity


    I just wanted to mention that in late 2009 when you had made a call for all precious metals including Palladium, I did not consider buying Palladium (although APMEX had it) because of lack of knowledge about that metal. It has simply doubled in the last 12 months. From $415-$885 

    I wish I had blindly followed your advice on splitting cash investement on various metals. Please continue your advice on any such opportunities.

    Andy, Chicago, IL USA. March 11th 2011.Time: 9 AM.

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 11, 2011
    Whether I am or for that matter any other Analysts or famous investors like Junjhunwala or Buffet, good or not, one should NEVER follow their advice or statement blindly. The best investment principle is that “read, watch and listen from every source, deliberate over it silently, and then take your own decision”

    Palladium after recent correction offers initial point of entry. This metal will go over $2000 in less than 3 to 4 years. Its lifetime high was $1090 or so. Following is the quote from UNCTAD who extracted the figures from Johnson Mathay, leading precious metal trader in the world.

    “In the first quarter of 2001, palladium price climbed to its historical top concerning the 1990-2004 period at 1090 US $ per oz, but on the 25th of April 2003 the palladium price was about 142 US $ per oz. This means that the palladium price dropped by 87 % in thirty months.”

    The old prices in 1980s or before is not so relevant because the new use of Palladium was found as catalyst in Auto (car, trucks etc) which has spurted the demand. Russia is the largest producer of the Palladium. Since the auto industry in tremendous upswing, everywhere including emerging market, the industrial use of Palladium will rise. Earlier, Platinum was used as catalyst which is now trading at $1800+ whereas its substitute Palladium is trading at $ 750 now, almost 40% of Platinum value.

    My personal opinion is that while historical high of Palladium at $ 1090 may not be a standard reference point, its value at $800 may be treated as reference point. Considering the effect of inflation and tons of paper money printed now, I project the Palladium price to reach as high as $2000 in less than 3 years. If the gold and silver prices move fast, then Palladium too may rise fast, even faster, and the target of $2000 may be achieved early.

    Current market price after correction at $ 750 is attractive entry point (initial). It has dropped from high of $860 recently, so you are getting cheaper by $100 per ounce, at a time when almost all other Precious Metals are near their peak – Gold, Silver and Platinum. Palladium today is at bargain compared to other metals.

    Please remember that I am giving you advice to buy the Palladium physically. Future and options contracts are now trading on COMEX or NYMEX but this paper game is altogether different.

    There are some forces which try to suppress the Palladium prices by futures (recently there are some amendments, which I have not read fully) because Russia is the producer. United States wants to suppress the prices of all commodities which are owned or monopolized by Russia due to political agenda.

  81. India- markets- after effects of earthquake/tsunami in Japan?

    Sir would there be any effects on short and long tern in India because of the earthquake of yesterday and latest tsunami of today and threat over the whole Indonesia till Hawain region ??

    Any Specific effects on the bullion and stock markets are expected?

    Thanks & Regards
    Bilal- Kanpur-India

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 11, 2011
    Read this commentary which spells out the post – quake consequences in Japan.

    You may not believe, but after New Zealand earthquake, I did visualize major earthquake in Asia Pacific region. Japan got it as result. Those who know Science know that the earth moves from West to East, so the wind, water, and even sub-terrain earth-plates also move or rotate from east to west. This is why when you go from Mumbai to Hong Kong, it takes longer due to wind resistance than when you return from Hong Kong to Mumbai due to easier wind. Similarly, when we travel by Air from Hong Kong to West Coast of USA (Los Angeles), it takes longer by over 60 minutes than when we return from LA to HKG.

    When wind and water moves from one direction to other, they carry with them everything above and below them. This is why the storms, hurricane, typhoons, always visit east cost of any nation rather than west coast. In India, for example, more storms are felt in Madras, Vizag and other east ports rather than in Mumbai or any west port. Tsunami also struck India on its eastern ports.

    There is major geophysical change in earth’s plate movement below water. This is why I guess that the next earthquake might hit Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam apart from Indonesia and Philippines. The move is more on northern hemisphere, so Hong Kong and China will be easy target than Singapore, Malaysia which are closer to equator.

  82. Mercator Lines
    BSE: 526235   |   NSE: MLL   |   ISIN: INE934B01028
    CMP : 39.25 INR | 1000QTY @ 76.10 INR

    Exports zoom 50% in Feb 2011
    Mercator traded 4 million tonnes Indonesian coal in 2010
    Oorja mine reaches 1.5 million tonnes output
    New high quality coal mine will add 2 million tonnes

    Should we consider Mercator Lines on a long-term basis; stock tanks almost 50% of my purchase price. Please throw some light on Mercator lines, what to do? For recovery which stock is consider for switching.
    New Delhi, India

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 10, 2011
    Already commented before. The Coal business will look good for it. When the oil prices rise, coal prices move in sync. Since your price difference is more, better buy another 1000 at CMP

  83. No reply

    There is no reply for a query posted on 03 March 2011.
    Pls check and if possible provide your guidance.

    Nadim Azami
    Kuwait, march 10, 2011

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 10, 2011
    See my reply to your old query on 4/3/2011


    GLOBAL >> COMMODITY >> SILVER BUY – Right time now??
    Dear Anilji,
    Today Silver is down below 35$ and i bought some (30%) from my allocated capital and now i am asking you the question sir.
    Is this the correction you mentioned that will come before the UP move starts around 19th March till 29th March;
    Can i wait for 2-3days before i invest the rest of the capital in 30% + 40% to take advantage of the 19-29th March rally?
    Or do you think the political scenerio in Libya will play spoil sport? Just want to know your advice and suggestions before investing the rest of my capital
    Many Thanks,
    London, UK
    10th March 2011

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 10, 2011
    Yes, wait for 2 or 3 more days. Read my reply to Shiva down below.


    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 10, 2011
    Follow our norms to post the queries. Marked for deletion.

    Dear Anil Sir,

    I am stiil waiting for reply of my  query dt.27/2/2011 on the above stocks.Sir, I will be highly obliged if you please  spare some time and look into the prospects of these stocks.

    Thanks a lot Sir.
    Anjali Lucknow India 10/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 10, 2011
    GEOMETRIC: Too small company to bother about. It is also too technical. Yes, their products form the basis of strong design in manufacturing in future, same way China emerged. They do not have unique specialization though. Financially the stock is expensive. Trading at about 19 times with stable to declining earnings. Not a good stock to hold in weak market. Yes, Godrej is a good name behind it but it is a loose change investment for Godrej. I would buy only at Rs 30 to 40 region. A good dividend paying company without much excitement in my opinion.

    TV TODAY: It is reasonably priced. It has more takeover appeal than ever before. However, I have no idea who has deeper pocket to buy them out. At the moment, the stock is having small volume. I would wait for volume to pick up on upside than enter, otherwise, it may languish for a long time.


    Dear Sir
    What can I say? Every one who reads your book would know it has the best solution for US crisis.
    One thing you miss or say you are wrong at, for not being recognised by the Obama and the Gang. http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell030711.html

    “You are not from Ivy League” .

    Yaa. I like Richard Russell’s snippets. This 85+ years old man is Gold Bug . In his latest snippet he too has bashed Buffet in different context.



    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 10, 2011
    Kitco.com quoted the following:

    Trouble for Dollar and the Market? Rates to Rise soon and fast?

    Traders are still buzzing about Wednesday’s news that the “bond king” PIMCO fund is in the process of dumping all of its U.S. government debt. PIMCO had been the world’s largest fund holding of U.S. government securities. PIMCO head Bill Gross is worried about the U.S. deficit and U.S. financial problems. PIMCO’s move to dump U.S. debt can be viewed by gold market bulls as bullish, due to the implications of huge government deficits weakening the value of the U.S. dollar and the financial and economic standing of the U.S. in the world arena, in general. However, part of Gross’s reason for dumping U.S. securities is that he believes the Federal Reserve will become less accommodative in monetary policy in the coming months, including the specter of rising interest rates, to fight inflationary price pressures. That can be viewed as bearish for the precious metals and bullish for the U.S. dollar.

    GOLD, SILVER AND USD INDEX – Correction in offing?
    Also, the gold and silver started correcting yesterday with the rise in dollar index and fall in gold and silver prices as originally forecast by us. It may continue for another two or three days if there are no other disturbing political news from middle east. Those who were asking me to buy these metals will get the opportunity in next 3 days. The metals might start recovering from 19/3 onwards if past practices are any guide.

    In India, rupee may weaken to Rs 45.50 to 45.65 again. Gold might drop to $1385 level or even lower to $1365, and Silver may drop to 33.50 (first small stop where one can buy some) and another at $31.35 or about. Use the Rupee rate of about 45.50 to work out the Rupee prices or allow about 10% fall from now to enter the metal in first phase of entry for newcomers. Those who entered the silver at much lower prices before (<45000) need not worry much but those who entered at about 49000 or about may sell to buy back if at all they want to trade.

  88. India, Commodity, Gold Reg: Buying Gold

    I want to know what is the best option to buy gold in India. I want to buy about 200g for my daughter. She says she in not interested in Gold and so I don’t want to buy as ornament and instead in the form of coins which can be used later. I may be able to buy 20 to 50g at a time. Please suggest whether I should buy from Banks/Jewelers or in any other way in India so that the cost is minimized.

    Sanjay, Bangalore, India, 10-Mar-2011

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, March 09, 2011
    In 2003, when my daughter married in USA, she also told me the same thing giving us reasons that no one in USA wear gold. Still, as part of tradition, we gave her about 500 grams of gold valued at that time about @ $335 or about. (We had accumulated for more than 5 to 10 years before that as part of our savings). When she looks back, and wonders – Wow – what a great asset she has. A profit of 333% in 7 years or about 48% per year on average when the interest rates on deposits is just about 0.25% in USA?

    Today’s children are dazed by modernity, discos, cell phones, IPone, Computer gadgets, TV serials, branded clothing, etc. Since they are better educated in literary sense, and getting good salary, they tend to ignore the basics of life which is not taught even in Harvard School of Business. Such education can be given only by the parents. It is your duty to inculcate some financial discipline in them whether they like it or not.

    Whether you buy the ornaments or lagdi or gold bars, does not matter. Yes, if you are buying Gold Bars without bills to avoid 2% taxes, the Tax department might chase you for some other reasons if they ever come across it. (normally they would not know about it) If there are ornaments, then it is treated as Woman’s personal wealth over which they do not normally argue nor do they ask for the proof for simple reason that it is the practice of over centuries to buy gold bit by bit over the years by almost all families in India.

    I think there are some Mint factory in Bangalore who deliver gold in bar form with 0.995 purity. Use our Gold Calculator to arrive at the price whether your dealer is over charging or not.


    Dear Anil Jee,

    I am sitting in  cash of about Rs. 3 Lakh to invest into silver. Reference to you article on first page regarding Silver “This month around it happened only for one day but the trend reversed immediately. If they do not correct until Wednesday next week, the silver bull will run riot. We are going to be in fast market”…today is Wednesday & there seems no signs of correction . I do not understand how to Proceed now ? Shall i start buying in small lots (1-1 Kg). Your Valuable input will be helpful.


    Vandana Kothari,
    Udaipur (Rajasthan) -INDIA

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, March 09, 2011
    You are right. But you have to consider Wednesday as per US time, that is, Thursdays in India. All my time inputs are now related to USA Time in all articles.

    I did have indication that the situation was reversing, and the gold dropped to 1424 and Silver to $35.90 after hitting $36.80. The correction did not last long, and the silver rosé to $ 36.32 and Gold back to $ 1435. The silver did not fall much as I found that the offers were simply snapped up.

    You may buy now in small lots of 1 kg or 2 Kg at a time (2 kg will cost Rs 1 lakh or 33% of your proposed investment) as your initial investment. Buy more in correction of any kind. Please note that you are entering at higher trading range, so this is why I am asking you buy 2 kgs maximum.

    Visit http://thebulliondesk.com and click India from pull down menu. Here you will get Silver and gold prices in USD, Indian Rupee and also Rupee/$ exchange rate. These rates are for 0.999 purity. If you are getting these metals of 0.995 purity, pay little less accordingly. (the difference may be marginal)

  90. Dear Anilbhai,

    I would appreciate your views on SCI & BEML, both of which are PSUs, are trading very close to their book value and look like a good investment. Also, these could be candidates for divestment at some point in time?


    The Monk

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, March 09, 2011
    Stocks like MTNL trade at 25% of book value which is known as bankruptcy level whereas MTNL has thousands of crores of funds with little or no debt. There are more than 200 PSU who might witness divestment sometime in future. How many would you own it?

    If you like them, you may go ahead. I would rather stay with more popular and liquid stocks like SAIL which has more appeal because a man on the street knows what is going on in steel prices. However, he does not know much about SCI or the Ocean Freight Rates as published internationally. SCI is no doubt good but the stocks like GE Shipping (Great Eastern Shipping) are more attractive due to their super quality management.

    I do not want to invest into illiquid stocks especially when India is steadily sliding into recession. Morgan Stanley downgraded India’s GDP growth to 7.7% almost 2% below Finance Minister’s latest review.Bank of America / Merrill Lynch predict about 20% drop in property prices in bigger city like Mumbai in less than 6 months. What they are talking about now, was informed by this author Kalidas for over 12 to 15 months in advance.


    Dear Kalidas Ji,

    I have been reading your views since last one month after been recommended by a friedn of mine. I am waiting to buy silver in indian markets. You have opined that silver would fall in the 1st and 2nd week of March. Today the silver is hovering around Rs.54000/- in the MCX. Will it go down? Pleast suggest the right time to buy and also the levels at which I should start buying.


  92. Sub: Petrol Price Deregulation & Regulation
    Dear Anil Sir,
    Today there is a NAUTANKI on the subject of Petrol Price regulation & deregulation. At around 10:30 am there was a clipping on Business Channel quoting Oil Ministry source that they are considering to put Petrol Price under  Regulation.  Link Below.
    Only after 30-40 min there is again announcement in this regards and saying that there is no plan for Petrol Price regulation AS OF NOW. Link above.
    This is really crazy. How can such responsible peoples make such an announcements on very crucial Government Policy?
    But it indicates UPA Government’s dilemma towards deregulation of Diesel price..
    Parag, Surat   9th March 2011

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, March 09, 2011
    You are right. They are in complete disarray what to do. Their nose is squeezed, so mouth is going to open soon.

  93. Sir
    Small correction. Your book talked about Land-Bonds. Not exactly selling. I meant was US govt is   thinking in terms of its real assets for debt payment. Getting in to the idea of Land-bonds may not be far away. Of course you have mentioned  many times that US does not have any other alternatives but this.

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 08, 2011
    The idea given by me is far superior than what they are talking about. The value of land owned by US government is not just $2.3 trillions but nearly 10 to 20 times.

    My book talks about selling the development land in future by way of tradeable bond which were fully and obligatorily convertible into land at future date, so whatever funding the government got would not be debt after maturity. It is more like equity or capital. The government incurs only interest financing cost during the validity period (from date of issue till the date of maturity).

    Even I complemented myself for suggesting such brilliant idea. The American problem would be solved one by one, if they really go by my book. I am writing to President Obama again and sending him the book itself. My family members are not in favor of sending the government idea to make $ 4 trillions as capital or non returnable income free of cost.

    Presuming the large brokers like Goldman Sachs charge nearly 2% as fees, my idea is worth $ 80 billions. If they do pay me that amount, then I would be the richest person in the world in just under a year. Only with this book and greatest idea that I developed therein. Forget even Warren Buffet, Bill Gates or even Steve Jobs of Apple Computers.

    More I think about the quality of my book and solution enumerated, I certify myself as the creator of best book on financial crisis over centuries. Whether the readers call me self congratulatory egoist or not, I am not concerned. I know what kind of solutions that I have provided.

    The much touted financial experts and legend like Warren Buffet or Bill Gross of PIMCO have provided NOT A SINGLE SOLUTION to the US government how to get out of the terrible mess it is in. Whereas my book provides not one, two or three but over 50 solutions step by step in every aspect and component of the financial crisis.

    You have read my book. You know my ideas, working and all calculations – tell me where I am wrong. I never make any statement lightly or casually.

  94. Bakken Oil field, North America.

    Dear Anilji,

    I came across this write-up, thought you would throw some light on this to your followers.

    Here’s an interesting read, important and verifiable information:

    “About 6 months ago, the writer was watching a news program on oil and
    one of the Forbes Bros. was the guest. The host said to Forbes, “I am going to ask you a direct question and I would like a direct answer; how much oil
    does the U.S. have in the ground?”
    Forbes did not miss a beat, he said, “more than all the Middle East put together.”
    Please read below.
    The U. S. Geological Service issued a report in April 2008 that only scientists and oil men knew was coming, but man was it big. It was a revised report (hadn’t been updated since 1995) on how much oil was in this area of the western 2/3 of North Dakota, Western South Dakota, and extreme eastern Montana… check THIS out:
    The Bakken is the largest domestic oil discovery since Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay, and has the potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign
    oil. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates it at 503 billion
    barrels. Even if just 10% of the oil is recoverable… at $107 a barrel, we’re looking at a resource base worth more than $5.3 trillion.

    “When I first briefed legislators on this, you could practically see their jaws hit the floor. They had no idea.” says Terry Johnson, the Montana Legislature’s financial analyst.

    “This sizable find is now the highest-producing onshore oil field found in the past 56 years,” reports The Pittsburgh Post Gazette. It’s a formation known as the Williston Basin, but is more commonly referred to as the ‘Bakken.’ It stretches from Northern Montana, through North Dakota and into Canada. For years, U. S. oil exploration has been considered a dead end. Even the ‘Big Oil’ companies gave up searching for major oil wells decades ago. However, a recent technological breakthrough has opened up the Bakken’s massive reserves, and we now have access of up to 500 billion barrels. And because this is light, sweet oil, those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 per barrel!

    That’s enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 2041 years
    straight. And if THAT didn’t throw you on the floor, then this next one should – because it’s from 2006!

    U. S. Oil Discovery- Largest Reserve in the World.
    Stansberry Report Online – 4/20/2006

    Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the
    largest untapped oil reserve in the world. It is more than 2 trillion barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction. In three and a half years of high oil prices none has been extracted. With this motherload of oil why are we still fighting over off-shore drilling?

    They reported this stunning news: We have more oil inside our borders, than all the other proven reserves on earth. Here are the official estimates:
    – 8 times as much oil as Saudi Arabia
    – 18 times as much oil as Iraq
    – 21 times as much oil as Kuwait
    – 22 times as much oil as Iran
    – 500 times as much oil as Yemen
    – and it’s all right here in the Western United States.
    HOW can this BE? HOW can we NOT BE extracting this? Because the
    environmentalists and others have blocked all efforts to help America become independent of foreign oil! Again, we are letting a small group of people dictate our lives and our economy…WHY?

    James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says we’ve got more oil in this very compact area than the entire Middle East – more than 2 trillion barrels untapped. That’s more than all the proven oil reserves of crude oil in the world today, reports The Denver Post.

    Don’t think ‘OPEC’ will drop its price – even with this find? Think again!
    It’s all about the competitive marketplace – it has to. Think OPEC just
    might be funding the environmentalists?

    Got your attention yet?

    By the way… this is all true. Check it out at the link below:

    GOOGLE it, or follow this link. It will blow your mind.


    Rang-jama, Bangalore, India. 

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 08, 2011
    The news item dates back to 2008/09 when the oil prices reached nearly $150. Perhaps this report was politically engineered to contain the oil prices. Other report of 2005 is too old.

    It is a shale gas or very hard solid surface to drill the hole and extract it. Also it is in the states with extreme weather. it is not cost effective too.

    3/4 of the planet is in water. Oil is best extracted at cheaper cost in soft soil like deserts or off shore in basins or sea or ocean. Kaveri-Godavri basin in India, Bombay high, Rajasthan deserts etc are cheaper locations. 1000 feet may appear low depth but it is equivalent 10,000 feet compared to soft soil extraction above water and sand. It is like drilling a concrete compared to drilling a wood.

    With the advent of solar technology where Sun rays are available almost free, and emergence of hybrid vehicles that may gather steam. reliance on mass commodity like Oil may be less than before.

  95. Indian  Stock Market   Sensex CMP 18435
         I have 3 lac rs in hand and I want to reenter in stock market coz I had sold  my some Equity when market 21000. Pl advice me can I enter market on this leval  or wait some days?
    Request pl advise

    Amit gupta

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 08, 2011
    in fact, I had drafted the reply on same day but somehow due to computer hang up, it was lost. Stay in cash for the time being. March end or mid April may bring in some hot news and new opportunities. It requires courage to hold cash ignoring temptations.

  96. sub: Mahindra Satyam and Tech Mahindra
    Dear Sir,
    You have recommended Mahindra Satyam. I would like to know your opinion about Tech Mahindra. Wouldn’t it be a better strategy to invest some money in Tech Mahindra?
    This will balance the uncertainty which will be caused by the impending announcement of merger ratio.
    Even today, Tech Mahindra’s gain are almost double that of the Satyam (due to Cisco news).
    Please opine.
    v8r, Bristol, UK.

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, March 09, 2011
    To me both are same. It is more like “Dulha or Bridegroom” before and after marriage. Person is same.

  97. Sir,
    I see that the layout of the site has changed today, back to the original layout as before. Kindly make the comments appear in descending order of dates, if it is possible. Otherwise, one has to scroll right through all the messages to read the new comments.
    Thanks & regards,

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 08, 2011

  98. India  One rock solid Stock

    Hi Anil Sir,
    I wish to get Woman’s Day gift from you! Please give me one rock solid stock advice for 1 to 2 years time horizon.

    Thankyou Sir

    Anjali Lucknow India 8/3/2011

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 08, 2011
    Three figure – ONGC; two figure near 100 – UCO Bank and lower two figure MRPL when the gulf situation stabilize and below 30 – Spicejet. Take your pick because I do not know your budget.

  99. India, KFA, Coal India Limited, RIL, Advice needed.

    Dear Kalidas Sir,
    I have the following shares.
    Kingfisher Airlines 266Qty bought at Rs. 46.50. CMP Rs. 39
    Coal India Limite 14Qty bought at Rs. 334. CMP Rs. 337
    RIL 60Qty bought at Rs. 966.50. CMP Rs. 986
    Let me know shall I hold it or buy more or sell them put entire amount into OMC’s.
    In the current market condition I am not able to decide whether to put more capital into the stock market or wait for some correction.
    Please advise.
    -Vikram Sinha,
    Bangalore, India 8th Mar 2011

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 08, 2011
    Do nothing for RIL and Coal India; KA is a bit tricky – they may not be able to raise new equity now due to unstable market, higher oil prices, lower cash flow etc. SELL 200 right now and use the proceeds to buy same stock when <20 because there will be heavy dilution of equity. I like to switch to Spicejet due to improving business, and back up money power, but you may stay with KAL only as above.

    KAL is technically in severe financial squeeze but the reputation and service is too good to ignore. It will take minimum 2 years for it to turn around.

  100. India  Buying Gold/Silver  OMCs
    Respected Sir,
    Reading your recent article “Enter Second Stage Of Financial Crisis”. I have become very sceptical about my investments. Sir, I will be requiring money after 3 yrs for my son’s higher education( may be for abroad studies).For fulfillment of this goal, whether it will be prudent to invest in Gold/Silver or in OMCs.Please also give me the entry levels also.I beg your pardon for the spoon feeding as I am totally confused about the price levels of these commodities for any tentative correction.
    Lakshmi Lucknow India 7/8/2011

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 08, 2011
    Place 25% in gold and silver, 15% in bank deposits, 15% split in ONGC, MRPL and UCO bank right now, reserve 6% (0.5% per month) for 7 years Recurring Deposits, and reserve the balance in IOC when the Diesel policy is announced and gulf situation begin to stabilize. you may deploy even bank deposits (by withdrawing it prematurely) into OMC, including IOC. If you invest now, you may be too early by about 3 weeks.

    Good Morning Captain,

    I highly appreciate your knowledge & skills. 

    I have a property in tardeo area (City – Mumbai . Country -India). The current Market value of this commercial office place is 50 Lakhs INR. Since it is in my parents name I am forcing them to sell it and invest in IOC for a time frame of four years.
    However they are not convinced with the idea!!
    1) Is it a wise decision to sell an asset and re allocate the funds in IOC?
    2) Can i wait for a year and then invest in IOC? (After a year it would also be possible for me to arrange extra 20 laths INR)
    Your Guidance is Valued and Appreciated .
    Ashok Kapoor – Mumbai – India – 07 Mar 2011

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 08, 2011
    Commercial property, especially in Tardeo area, are relatively safe. I do not know what is the size of your office, floor location, age of the building and also neatness of the building. If you think that you have made enough money, you may sell it and keep the amount in bank deposits with borrowing facility. You may have problem in managing second part of money because of its size. which you can deploy in buying gold or silver in correction. First part of money may be kept in bank deposits with overdraft facility.

    IOC is a good buy but there are two factors against right now – rising oil prices, unclear policy on diesel price control which may be announced soon by March end. Yes, selling property and realizing dues will take lot of time by which time we would have more clear picture on IOC and other OMC.

    I think you referred this question about a year back.


    Dear Sir,

    I had invested in ELSS of UTI three years ago and it has now matured. Currently its value is equal to the sum invested. In the current market scenario should I redeem it or leave it?

    – Akhilesh Singh, Noida, India, 7/March/2011.

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, March 08, 2011
    I do not usually monitor Mutual Funds or similar outfits including ULIP. I do not even know what ELSS means. However, since your product has matured, you would get the cash automatically. There is no question of redemption or leaving it. Either I have understood correctly or you have conveyed wrongly.

  103. Reg. : Indian Stock Market View after Budget

    Dear Kalidasji,

    In one of query, you have replied – “If concrete policy for inflation containment is not announced, then the market may slide”.

    Pl. give the impact of Budget on Indian Stock Market in general and stock suggessted by you.

    – Ramesh, Mumbai, India.

  104. Dear Sir,
    The following suggests that some one is trying real hard to keep the market (S & P) high. The analysis seems quite reasonable. It would be great if you can opine.
    V8r, Bristol, UK.

    Kalidas says…Saturday, March 05, 2011
    No opinion. Unless something is substantiated, which is not possible without having access to the trading record on respective exchange, we may not know. We can at the most draw the conclusions from time, price and volume. The volume does not lie, because one can not manipulate the volume all the time.

    In every exchange, there are mechanism under which one can check last few trades or all trades during the day, under the report “Time and Sales”. This report informs the time at which the trade took place, size of the trade and whether the trade was executed at bid or offer price. If the trade is done at the offer price, it means that the buyer did not want to wait in line or queue and take the stock or item at the offer price. This indicates the bullish stance. Similarly, if the trade takes place at bid prices, it means that the buyer is not pushing the stock and it is in accumulation stage. Once the buyer has accumulated certain desired position, he either walks away or bids up the price on smaller volume which creates excitement. Often, the jobbers or what we call marketmakers bid up the price near the end of the day so that investors read the prices on the following morning in newspapers which stock has moved. This is where the market manipulation takes place.

    Other is the price. If the price goes up throughout the day on higher than average volume, it indicates the bullish trend and that the stock is likely to enter higher range. Smart investors and traders use this indication as their entry point.

    Third is the volume. You may have seen large movement in prices in some unheard counters without any back up volume which means that promoters have engaged the marketmaker to move the price. You then see upper circuit at times.

    I follow the above indicators to spot the trend which is mostly short term entry or exit point. What we do not know from these indicators is who is buying and selling. Such records are known only to major trading brokers having inside contacts with the exchange officials who alone have access who is buying and selling except in large block trades.

    Please note that no one has capacity or means to manipulate the whole market consi

  105. INDIA, SUGAR STOCKS, ANDHRA SUGAR , Reg: Good Buy Now ?
    Are Sugar Stocks  Good Buy now. I was looking at the Financials of Andhra Sugar and at the current CMP Rs 92, it is trading at 70% of its book value. Also, if the commodity prices increase due to inflation the Sugar stocks would benefit.
    Anshuman, NJ, USA, 4th March

    Dear Sir,
    Sorry for the mistake, I bought 1000 at 93 CMP-81. There was buyback news, the date of buyback has not been announced yet by the company. ADSL is going down since then may be because of IT raid on the company.
    Kindly advise for IFCI also, whether it will get banking licence. Can we buy IFCI at CMP-52.?



    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 04, 2011
    I have no idea whether IFCI will get banking license because RBI is going to announce the guidelines by end of March, 2011, that is, after about 26 days. If other private companies are going to get the banking license, then they may perform better than IFCI. The companies to watch are ILFS (not being bought by Mukesh Ambani), Reliance Capital, Some companies in Aditya Birla group and may be Tata group. May be Mahindra group may also bid.

    ILFS is the best candidate. IFCI will be last performer. Banking license issue is so much discussed over the years that it has become a rotten word for IFCI. And what are they going to achieve by getting banking license? Yes, it will be treated as good news and stock prices may rise by 10% or so, Look at IDBI Bank – did they kill lion or tiger after getting banking license? No.

    ILFS will function better because it has major Infra structure subsidiary – MAYTAS Infrastructure who made Mumbai-Pune Highway. MAYTAS is former subsidiary of SATYAM Computer. READ “SATYAM” from right to left – it is MAYTAS

    IFCI on its own is an excellent buy but the banking sector is weak, so buy only in correction. However, if you want to buy on the basis of banking license, go for ILFS and other businessman’s companies.

  107. Bangalore->RealEstate->Need your Advice

    Dear Sir,
    I have invested around 1.7L into the stocks. I have another 3L cash in hand. Recently i heard some Postal and Telecom Society has identified and developing the land in between the Bangalore and Bangalore International Airport. The land is approx 5km away from the main road to airport and 10km away from the airport and around 30km away from the center of the Bangalore city. The society is selling the land at 690 per sft.

    I already own a flat in Bangalore and living there. I am thinking of buying 30×50 site for investment purpose in the layout i just talk about. As first installment, i have to pay 3L, and other 3 installments as the development is done. Developer is saying it will take 3 yrs to develop the land.
    I’m in dilemma weather to buy land or wait to invest the 3L that i have now in the stocks recommended by you (IOC, Satyam, Ruchi, MRPL, ONGC etc).  

    Could you please help me in taking the decision.

    Thanks in advance
    5th/Mar/2011, 00:07

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 04, 2011
    A difficult question for me to answer. I am not so familiar with Bangalore property. The rule of thumb is take the current price of built in apartment in nearby area and reduce it by Rs 1000 to arrive at the possible land prices. If the result is < Rs 690, you may negotiate the price. further, it looks like that the land may not be commercial or residential but just agriculture land awaiting conversion change. If the developer is really a trusted name, then you may buy the land from him. Please note that keeping the land title pending for long time might enable the builder to sell the same piece of land to others without your knowledge. Even if you decide to buy, ensure that the agreement is registered so that you as registered owner get the first preference. Whenever you get good real estate at bargain prices, it is best choice compared to stock. However, this property and IOC are not comparable. If diesel prices change, the kind of appreciation you get in IOC (that too tax free) will not be available in the land. Although rising interest rates will hurt the real estate sector, the land prices will be least affected.


    Dear Sir,
    Following your advice, purchased Gold from APMEX @ $1100-$1200 and aquired over 25 oz, thanks to you they are doing well. However some of my decisions in stocks were wrongly timed. A few minutes of your time would be greatly appreciated.

    Satyam 1400 @ 88, CMP(64)  Loss of -34,000
    Kalidas View … Mark for buying. 600 now and more later

    Lanco Industries 2000 @ 58 CMP(36) Loss of – 42,500
    Kalidas View … do not know this stock. Later

    Ashtavinayak 5000 @ 7.8 CMP (6.03) Loss of -8,850
    Kalidas View … Do nothing for the time being. Stay with it.

    Bengal tea and Fab 1000 @ 65 CMP (42) Loss of -22,150
    Kalidas View … Do not know this stock, may be later.

    MRPL 700 @ 82 CMP (58) Loss of -17,000
    Kalidas View … Mark for buying 800 shares. 500 now and balance later. Buy balance below Rs 63 when the oil prices recede or when the Gaddafi is out.

    Zee News 3000 @ 15.6 CMP (11.25) Loss of -13,000
    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 04, 2011 Buy 2000 at CMP

    Ruchi Infra 500 @ 34.25 CMP (24.9) Loss of -4,675
    Kalidas View … Mark for buying 1000 more at Rs 21 or about.

    Avon corporation 5000 @ 7.28 CMP (5.25) Loss of – 10,125
    Kalidas View … Buy 3000 more and then keep quiet

    GHCL 1000 @ 45 CMP (38.8) Loss of -6,200 
    Kalidas View … Your loss is less. Use the proceeds elsewhere where losses are more. Like Satyam,

    Cairn India 200 @ 330 CMP (351) PROFIT +4,240 
    Kalidas View … Ride the rally. Higher oil prices in favour of the stock, so also the Government approval for take over deal as disclosed by ministerial statements. As soon as approval is out, you might see more news from new promoters.

    Current total loss is approx 1.7Lac or about -25% of original invested value. Cash reserves in hand INR 5 Lacs. Please  advice, will follow your directions to the letter.
    Kalidas View … No need to touch cash reserve for the time being. First readjust your portfolio and then decide to invest more.

    Andy, Chicago, USA. March 4th, 2011 @ 10AM

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 04, 2011
    Readjust your portfolio. Except for penny stocks, sell those stocks with smaller losses and using proceeds to buy stock with higher losses such as Satyam. Stay with the quality for the time being. I do not know 3 or 4 stocks you own nor do I have time to go through them. I do not provide here whole portfolio solution. Read my remarks under respective stocks.

    Ride the rally

  109. balchender says (5.03.2011 at 12:11 AM):

    SPICEJET  1500 @58 CMP 39.35

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 04, 2011
    Buy about 500 more now, and more when the situation in ME stabilizes. So long as the turmoil in Libya and neighboring countries continue, oil would trade higher which is negative for Airlines stocks. If you want to buy a good quality or potential stocks at cheaper price, you do not have to pray God but Col Gaddafi who by action cause the oil prices higher and airline stocks cheaper.

    Such leaders do not last long. May be in less than 30 days, he will be out, US might attack Libya to drive him out. Buy this stock more with every rise of $10 in oil prices. We can never say in politics and war when the errant and tyrant wins or loses.


    YOU ARE RECOMENDED BUY MTNL. BUT SIR IT IS FUNDAMENTALY VERY POOR. EPS IS VERY NEGATIVE -48. pls tell why are u recomened this stock. I give below some detail  about this stock. which I copied on INDIABULLS.COM.

    Adjusted E P S (Rs.) 

    Adjusted Cash EPS (Rs.) 

    Reported EPS (Rs.) 

    Reported Cash EPS (Rs.) 

    Dividend Per Share 

    Operating Profit Per Share (Rs.) 

    Book Value (Excl Rev Res) Per Share (Rs.) 

    Book Value (Incl Rev Res) Per Share (Rs.) 

    Net Operating Income Per Share (Rs.) 

    Free Reserves Per Share (Rs.) 


    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 04, 2011
    Do not try to produce table like this next time. It takes lot of space and make the reading almost difficult. Use the program “Easy text to HTML” freeware and use Table to HTML function.

    Now, you are referring to only EPS without inquiring how such huge number on negative side arise from positive numbers before. You are also forgetting that present price of MTNL is just 30% of its book value. It is almost a debt free company, dividend paying company etc which is overlooked.

    Visit MTNL page, especially its Quarterly Result for 31/12/2010 You will need to click on tiny image to expand to full scale view. Look at the following numbers (and entire line). Item 2 a3 which mentions the Provision for the Cost of Retirements, which is shown at Rs 7,907 millions (Rs 790 crores) for 9 months as against Rs 11,680 Millions (Rs 1,168 crores for comparable 9 months of previous year (31/12/2009). The full year figure for period ended 31/03/2010 was Rs 27,370 millions or Rs 2,737 crores. Now, these are provisions made for cumulative period of past years due to change in accounting methods after the company was made public and listed. When the company was 100% owned by Govt of India (now just 47%), such provisions were not necessary. Years of cumulative retirement benefits are sought to be debited to latest accounts in one of two years which has distorted the profit picture. Look at the last 3 quarters numbers, they are declining at fastest pace, indicating that this is perhaps the last phase of writing off or providing for future retirement costs.

    Now, MTNL has only 63 crore shares, that is, provision amount for 31/3/2010 is Rs 2,707 cr/63 cr= Rs 43.90 per share. These are one time expense and merely a provision amount for which liability will be deferred on number of years.

    Look at current wage bill (Item 2 (a1) column 5 which is at Rs 12,790 Mlns or Rs 1,279 crores against which provision for retirement made is Rs 790 crores (item 2 (a3) column 5. There can not be 62% retirement benefits for every rupee of wages spent. It is just that years of non provisioned amount is now provided for in just one or two years, completely distorting income pictures. Most companies provide as amortized items, written off over a period of years, whereas MTNL provided in just one or two years.

    Look at the spreadsheet titled MTNL at a Glance Q3 2010-11 which shows at the bottom the employee counts which have been reduced from almost 62,000 employees to 45,000 over last 12 years.

    If you remove this one off item, the picture of heavy losses will become absolutely clear. In future year, especially from 2012, the EPS will improve by Rs 45 only because of this reason.

    MTNL was suggested by us only to very long term High Net Worth investors who can afford to buy and hold for extended period same way as IOC itself. It was never meant for normal investors.

    Further, MTNL has treated its expense of over Rs 11000 crores for 3G spectrum license as “intangible asset” a correct treatment whereas almost all private telco companies from Reliance, Tata, Bharati and Birlas show it as if it is real tangible asset items. The real benefits of 3G Spectrum will begin to accrue from 2011-12 onwards which may solidly raise the profit. Do you think that this company is mad in buying 3G spectrum license spending thousand of crores without any potential to make money out of it. Other companies could not bid, because they did not have money. MTNL had lot of cash which will be put to better use from this year onwards.

    The brokers like Indiabulls write only one part of the story and ignoring most important part of the balance sheet. Also note that company used to pay 40% dividend in the past or Rs 4 per share. It is not paying for last two years due to provisions made for retirement benefits. When these expenses are taken care of, it will return to dividend at much higher rate. Even at expected 40% dividend on face value of Rs 10, or Rs 4 per share, it amounts to 10% which is much higher than even bank deposits or many infra bonds.

    MTNL is like a convertible bonds stock of the future, a rich dividend play (after one year) and capital appreciation.

    When evaluating the stock, look at the future, and also examine the present with critical eyes. Most brokers in India are high flyers whose analysis appeal to gallery.


    Dear Sir,

    Please share your views on ADSL, I bought at 93, CMP-81

    Madhu Saran, Noida, India
    4th March 2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 04, 2011
    Always mention quantity purchased with cost and CMP. I do not answer incomplete queries.

    for the time being, nothing is happening to this counter. It is weak of late. If you are worried, sell 50% and stay with cash with a view to buying them later if they correct. Otherwise, your exposure is reduced so also the risk and reward.

  112. India- TTK PRESTIGE (517506)- worth buying?

    Sir this is an ace debt free company which is leader in its segment , surprisingly i have never seen this stock correcting/falling which is majorly because of the product it deals in and its specific sector if im not mistaken, and the prices are in strong upward movement  always. I have seen the stock growing 10 fold in past 3 years and even in past one year the prices have shot up from 600 to CMP of 1900. 
    So I wanted to know that does the stock still have a pottential to grow severral folds

    Thanks & Regards

    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 04, 2011
    Why do you want to go for the stock which is already up 10 times in last 3 years. If you want to marry, do you chase Virgin or unmarried girl or married woman? Leave it and search for similar stocks from thousands available. If you want to find such stock, it requires a lot of efforts and constant attention to value.


    Dear Sir,

    Looks like Cairn India is moving a little bit .

    Also any idea on whats happening on Ispat Industries.


    Kalidas Says … Friday, March 04, 2011
    CAIRNS is likely to get approval of its deal from the government, as confirmed by respective ministers. When the uncertainty ends, the stock will begin to go higher. You may see spate of announcements from Anil Agarwal after the deal has been approved. The low prices of Cairns will be behind us for a while.

    ISPAT’s future is more tied like a bride’s future with that of husband, Here the husband is JSW Steel, so until the merger is completed, there may not be much action for months unless there is explosion of steel prices on the upside (which is not very likely). It will remain a sitting dog for a while.

  114. India. Stock Market . Sensex Prediction.
    Dear Sir,
    We have been getting your opinion on various stock specific queries and some wonderful investment opportunities. Sir, recently you have become quite bearish on real estate and cautioning your readers for next 3-4 years. i certainly feel that most of the money people have made in last 10 years in india is due to booming real estate (non-educated) and service sector (educated). Now if you are forseeing a downward trend in real estate for next 4-5 yrs this would certainly have rippling effect and thus greater repercussions, as this would be something very new phenomenon in India where people can’t imagine real estate prices to go down at any point of time.

    In that case i certainly dont see people sentiment going positive and overall markets (sensex/nifty) also not going higher from present levels. Though definately certain stock specific up moves can happen. But overall sensex seem to be negatively biased.

    Do you buy my view and what will be your prediction of stock markets with nifty/sensex levels for next 3-5 yrs frame. We totally understand that for near future you are highly bearish on  indian markets and expect 14000 sensex levels in next 3months – 1 year time frame. I’m asking this question with medium term time frame. Also your opinion for indian markets from very long term view, what could be levels from 10-15 yrs time frame.

    Also, just a thought…if you can upload a picture of yours on your blog. We all have been hearing your views and thoughts for quite a while now, which has created a sought of bonding within CMCA community. Infact, reading your blog daily has become a sought of habbit, and sometimes when you dont answer a query or nobody has asked a question, it becomes frustating..So we would really wish to see our mentor and practically a person from whom we have learned so much. Thanks.

    Harish. Gurgaon. 04.03.2011

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Thursday, March 03, 2011
    To be quite honest, we make money by investing the money in certain stocks. We always talk about the market, but small investors never invest into market stocks. for them, RIL at Rs 930 is expensive than Ashtavinayak at say 9.30.

    We live in dynamic electronic world. In normal circumstances, I would have isolated India from rest of the world and could have predicted some levels on short to medium term. But the fact of the matter is that the Global Financial Crisis is not over, and in fact worsening day after day. Look at the commodity prices, wheat, corn, milk, onion, sugar, edible oil etc are rising at their fastest pace. The main problem with India is its Rupee policy and commissioning of MCX on cash settlement basis (no delivery intended or forced upon). That is, SEBI permitted pure casino type of operation when our markets are not mature enough to undertake this platform. It could have allowed MCX but only on physical delivery basis. Those who are bidding up may have to shell out hard money to buy the future bought by them on settlement, or sell it out to cause the fall in commodity prices that would quell the inflation.

    But the Government is not listening to common sense. I am afraid to comment clearly on one aspect which is influencing wrong policy actions. Most of the advisers in Finance ministry and RBI are headed or surrounded by one group, who have only theoretical knowledge and education, not practical. They do not have enough exposure to international finance, and yet they call all the shots. They are the deciders that leads the country into wrong directions. India as of today has all credentials, power, knowledge and money to become top 3 countries in the world, but it can not due to wrong policy. We have a strong base, but the workers who are building blocks on that base are inefficient and using wrong materials with the result that the whole structure will collapse. We are in process of dissipating our precious assets – man power, brain power and money.

    India is the only country that should have had interest rates below 4% or even 3%, but our rates are higher because inflation is higher, and inflation is higher because of MCX and weaker Rupee. This is why I kept my article on Rupee for unduly long time so that some policy maker reads it – but no one did. I also sent the same article to PM, FM, EPC, RBI etc but no one even acknowledged it.

    Because of such uncertainty, one can not project picture beyond 1 or 2 years. after 2 years, the government change, new leader comes in and we begin from Square one. This is the reason I do not want to project the Sensex beyond 12 months to 18 months. Real Estate scene is weak due to higher rates and rising inflation. Frauds, gambling, cheating and ministerial influences are destroying the real estate sector when several million people have dream to own at least a decent livable home. The central government itself is not coming forward with plans to build affordable homes for masses when it is the largest land owner. It will act as dampener. I remember in Hong Kong, when Tung Chi Wah, ex-Chief Executive of Hong Kong, brought down the real estate price by building almost 50,000 new homes at affordable prices.

    India is also a violent country. If the poor people can not afford homes, oil, food, vegetables, they would revolt in violent fashion that would cause lot of casualty in reforms and we would be drawn backwards by at least 10 years.

    SENSEX at 14,000 is not ruled out, but not in immediate future, but surely by October, unless wrong policies are reversed. It again depends on global markets where the real interest rates have begun to perk up with the result that any steep correction in overseas market could have reverberating effects.

  115. 3iinfotech

    Having 3000 3iinfotech at an average price of 68, cmp is 42. Pls guide.
    Nadim Azami, kuwait
    03 March 2011.

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 10, 2011
    I do not comment usually on high tech stocks – it is not my area of knowledge or expertise. The financial of this company is too complex to analyze unless one devotes more than 3 days with full information. It has been making lot of acquisitions without any significant details. The debt level of the company is also high. Its loss of profit was due to lot of accounting entries such as redemption of FCCB reserve. They are adding up on profits and then providing again later for current year. It appears otherwise okay. May be you can buy 1000 now and 2000 if at all it goes back to 31 level. Its loss appear to be limited to 31/3/2010 only because of accounting entry shown as “exceptional item”.

    I can not make further comments, because I have to go through its FCCB terms and why did they provide for redemption, then reversed it and again provided for it on reduced scale. It also shows the effect of some discontinued operation.

    I do not usually break my head into such infotech companies because most of their revenue, projects, profits, losses, acquisition etc are not verifiable and we have to accept what the company says. Kindly consult other brokers’ report on this company. This company was formerly a subsidiary of ICICI bank and apprear to have good client base in banking sectors.

  116. Subject: India, Stocks, IndoSolar & Jet Ele, advice

    Dear Anil Ji,
    I have the above named stocks INDOSOLAR 600 shares @ 29, CMP 18.90. Had purchased in IPO. But it has continued to go down. Also I have 100 shares of Jet King Info Train Ltd (an education company) @ 160, CMP 112. As per your advice I also hold IOC, Satyam and Spicejet among others. Do you suggest I continue to hold these two stocks or book losses and invest in better  bets as suggested.

    Vijay, New Delhi, India

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Thursday, March 03, 2011
    If you are a tax payer, you may sell all losing position and buy them back on following day. You can save almost 30% income tax which is also a good gain within a month.

    I do not know much about the stated shares INDOSOLAR and JET KING. I have never paid attention to these stocks. I do not follow small companies too much when the bargains are abound in larger companies.

  117. India, Market analysis


    After announcement of budget, nifty heading towards 5600 (today closed at 5536). Is there any triggers for short term to influence the market for next 1-3 months and when is the good entry levels to enter into buying stocks, which are fundamentally strong and suggested to buy in your articles/blog? Please help us rather entering now in recent peak. 

    Krishna, Hyderabad, India
    03 March 2011.

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Thursday, March 03, 2011
    I have already given the entry level for practically every stock. It is not possible to repeat them now.

  118. India Silver Buy now

    Dear Sir,

    I am being following your blog and you suggested that silver price may fall in 1st week of March and it would be a good time to buy.

    However i see that price have increased. Should we buy silver at this moment.

    Chetan   India  01.03.2011

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Thursday, March 03, 2011
    Why do you ask me question on very first day of March – the week is not over yet. Look at today’s correction – Gold dropped $20 and Silver $0.60. Whether you should buy now or in expected correction is your choice.

  119. Reg: India, Stock – Silver Conversion – Purchase timing for IOC / HPCL India

    Dear Sir,  
    I have accumulated IOC (395 shares CMP 313) and HPCL (337 shares CMP 328) from 440 to present 300 range. 

    I have all my savings in Silver (approx. 20 KGs of silver) … Many thanks to you … with your guidance i purchased it at is recent 3 year bottom of 9-10 $/ ounce. Currently it is trading at 35$ and ounce, in Rs terms i am getting over 200% profit. Recently, as we all know, silver is showing remarking strength …. strength which is not shown in last 40 years of trading.

    But i believe IOC will be the best of the best for next 10 years. I just read an article that  IOC is losing 237 crores per day i.e. 136 crores per day on diesel, 47 crores per day on kerosene and 54 crores per day on LPG (Link – http://www.livemint.com/2011/02/17163205/IOC-losing-Rs-237-crore-per-da.html) … and every other day the media publishes these report … every other day we here about possible deregulation on diesel prices … so i feel govt. is trying to prepare a public opinion on possible deregulation of diesel and LPG prices before it actually does it. 

    Now when the govt. deregulate the diesel prices … a 100 $ per barrel not too high in next 3-5 years … IOCL will make up this loss on diesel i.e. 136 crores per day comes to appx 50000 Crores … additional earnings … divided by 234 crores shares … net increase in EPS will be 216 Rs … add current EPS of Rs 40 … Net EPS will become about 250 … stock will become growth stock … even if i take PE ratio of 10 … the stock will be traded at 2500. At 15 PE, it will trade at only Rs 3750. If you add the LPG deregulation … 70000 crores annual additional income with EPS becoming Rs 340 (New 300 + current 40). At 10 and 15 PE multiple it will trade at 3400 and 5100. 

    But we are ignoring one fact … The start of Paradip refinery by April 2012 … with additional 15 Million Metric tonnes (MMT) per annum. This will increase the current IOC capacity from 60 MMT to 75 MMT i.e. 25% net increase in capacity. Add this 25% multipler to the above projected price … the price should trade between 3125(2500*1.25) and 6375(5100*1.25). 

    Again … if price of crude is to double in next 10 years … everything will double. 

    Now my question is
    1) is the logic ok of arriving at the stock prices. 
    2) the best time to sell silver and convert to IOC. 


    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Thursday, March 03, 2011
    Switching from Silver to OMC stocks
    We would normally switch assets when one asset has reached the peak and other alternate asset is either stable or showing upward trend.

    Both requirements are NOT met at the moment. Silver is gaining strength from day to day and IOC is weak and may remain so until the announcement on diesel prices are announced. The Empowered Group of Ministers will be meeting soon because the budget is now out of the way.

    However, I would certainly buy OMC stocks from fresh funds without touching Silver for the time being (even if I sell Silver for normal trading purpose, I would set aside the cash to buy back same Silver, and not use the funds for any other purpose).

    Major future contracts for Silver may expire in March. The contract for current month ends on 29/3/2011. We may therefore see Silver rallying 10 days before settlement, that is, from 19/3/2011. The present scenario and market rumors suggest that there is huge shortage of physical metal in the market. I guess that Silver is due for huge rally from third week of March until it ends on 29/3/2011 for settlement. It could rise anywhere between 8% to 15% in last few days ending March. Looks to me Silver may gain to $41 or about before March end and in India, it may rise to Rs 58,500 to Rs 61,000. Sell some silver then and buy the OMC at that time.

    As previously stated that both gold and silver might begin to fall from beginning of month, it looks like that the prophecy may come true. It looks from yesterday’s fall of $20 from $1435 and Silver dropped by $0.50 from yesterday’s high of $34.85. if my hunch is correct, we may see more correction due to paper trading manipulation of the market. It may continue for 3 to 5 days after which it may stabilize.

    Your calculation for IOC is nearly correct. One more important factor you left out, is that if the stock gains even to Rs 1500, its market cap will be 260 cr shares (including new IPO) x 1500 = Rs 390,000 crores which is at 50% of our estimated stock price. The current market cap of No. 1 company – Reliance is standing at Rs 320,000 crores, followed by TCS at Rs 225,000 crores. In other words, even at 50% reduced potential price of IOC, its market cap will be Rs 70,000 crores more than Reliance. So when I am claiming that IOC will become No. 1 index stock in India, I am not talking in the air.

    When IOC becomes No. 1 Index stock, it will carry maximum weightage at the expense of Reliance, TCS, ONGC etc. and as Index stock will command higher P/E rating than even Reliance/TCS/ONGC/Infosys/TATA Steel/Tata Motors etc. In other words, the IOC does have potential to trade at Rs 2500 to Rs 3000 which may place its market cap to over Rs 780,000 crores or $ 173 Billions or 50% of Apple market cap today.

    Allow 15% premium on Index stocks (RIL and LT trade at 20 to 30 times P/E only because they are Index stocks). If IOC trades at modest 15 times P/E, its price could catapult to Rs 3000 at least. This is why we captioned our title very modestly – OMC would return over 500% in 5 years, in fact they have potential to return almost 800% in 7 years.

  120. Appending Sesa Goa CMP 275
    52 Wk H/L : 257/495

  121. INDIA, STOCKS, SESA GOA, Good Buy ?


    Refer to http://www.financialexpress.com/news/miners-dig-up-mega-profits/757005/

    What is your view on Sesa Goa (this mining company seems to be having it good) ?

    Suresh, Bangalore, INDIA
    03rd Mar, 2011

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Wednesday, March 02, 2011
    I understand that there was ban on iron ore exports or heavy export duty in present budget. In any case, I am negative on metal sector, so do not suggest mines and minerals now. When the prospects of recession is bright, and I do not agree with the government projections, we have to ditch the metal, auto, real estate and mineral stocks. If you agree with government projections of 9% GDP, go ahead and buy this counter. Anil Agarwal is shrewd enough to manipulate its prices on upside and in market downturn, on downside as well. I do not invest in this kind of stocks in bad economy.


    Dear Sir

    I am stuck with Punj Lloyd 900 shares bought at 120 last year (CMP : 62.20). Please advice if it is OK to swap the shares with Mahindra Satyam which is available almost at the same price (CMP : 62.80). Please note that I am already holding 4500 shares of Mahindra Satyam at an average cost of 72.50.

    Thanks & Regards

    Vikas Sharma, Dubai, UAE, 03 March 2011

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Wednesday, March 02, 2011
    No need to do the swap. The price difference in Satyam and its CMP is not huge – it can be wiped off within 2 days of rally.

    I am not bullish on Punj Lloyd – it is technically bankrupt. Any price is a good sell. Stay cash after selling. Wait for good opportunities later.

  123. India: Mahindra Satyam & Others
    Dear Sir,
    I found this link on Mahindra Satyam website, it is a transcript of the Q3 performance concall, very informative. If you could draw some conclusions from it..


    On a separate note, I wanted to share my disappointment (withering into frustration) with you. I respect you for your wisdom and age. Also, I admire your blunt and non-nonsense way of writing.

    However, If I analyze MOST of your recommended stocks last year, they have Mostly Underperformed and have been marred with some issue or the other. Your recommended stocks like Abhishek Industries, Ashtavinayak, Ruchi Insfrastructure, RNRL ( now Rpower), Mahindra Satyam, all OMCs, Evinix Industries, Birla Power Solutions, MTNL,  are either close to their 52 week low or have vastly underperformed the markets. To give example, Ruchi Infra is down around 40% from recommended levels of 38/40. Evinix is down more than 50%.

    I don’t have the expertise to answer my question… as to why these seemingly good stocks are just not going up. Whereas, many more stocks, even the no-brainers like bluechip are doing fairly well… atleast if you invested a year back in them you are still in profits and not 20-40 percent down.

    Your call on Gold/Silver was genius. Your macro calls on economy are eye openers.

    3 March 2011, Singapore

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Wednesday, March 02, 2011
    Ashtavinayak: Proposed originally between Rs 12 and 14 and when it hit the price of Rs 40+, I asked everyone to sell saying the most money were made in this counter. When the counter dropped back to 14, it was suggested with clear instruction that it was the most dangerous stock due to detailed reasons mentioned in my commentary to one of the readers, and use only as gambling stock with lot of downside and upside. When it dropped to Rs 8 or about, I also mentioned very clearly that there is no pointer how low will it go, but in all probability may drop to Rs 5 and rebound strongly. It did rebound from Rs 4.95 and one reader made very good money out of it. There is no way to find out the fraudulant management, and my call at Rs 40+ was crystal clear.SELL. Now, if the readers bought back from Rs 20 to Rs 24 presuming that it has dropped by 50% and was cheap, then it was their mistake. I never suggested buying back at those level, and I informed the readers that even I bought some stocks at Rs 14.60 or about and again at Rs 7+ level. It all depends when the readers act on my recommendations. Often, I have found that they watch the stocks and when they find running away, they jumped in and buy without my knowledge.

    Abhishek Industries:Clearly informed readers to sell when it was in mid 20s having appreciated by over 50% and clearly warning the readers that there were some hidden forex losses which the company has neither provided for nor disclosed the true nature of transactions. Nevertheless, it is still one of the cheapest stock in the market.

    Ruchi InfraYes, you are right. It was recommended when the stock slid to Rs 40 after seeing the high of mid 60s. However, the fall in the prices was due to steep fall in the market, almost every day from 21000 to 17200 in matter of days. Not only Ruchi Infra, almost all stocks in this sector fell more in % terms than Ruchi infra. At Rs 18 or about it was strongly recommended and was advised sell to other reader just a few days back when the price was Rs 25. It is still one of the best infrastructure stocks in the industry. I maintain by buy rating on this stock.

    RNRLIt was the legal decision that went wrong due to judges being bought over by RIL group. I am a lawyer too, and no judge in his right mind would decide against the RNRL. But India is the most corrupt place in the world. However, please note that my original recommendations on RNRL was at Rs 38 to 40 and even today, the stock is trading at Rs 28 equivalent which is about 30% down but the stock did go to Rs 72 after my initial recommendations (up 80%). Many readers bought this stock on its strong rally, not when it was consolidating at low level when it was first suggested. Further, no sane person could take the decision as Anil Ambani took and the only thing I can not anticipate or forecast is the level of corruption at high places. Try your luck and knowledge to predict this, you will realize that.

    All OMCRead my original recommendations on all OMC – they are up even today by 70%. When I wrote the article and suggested second bout of purchasing, the stocks went up crazy and were up almost 30% in matter of days. Many readers thought that the old level would never come back and bought at higher levels. This column is full of readers queries to buy this stock in rally which I have mentioned to wait for deep correction. The correction was more due to overall market tanking by 3500 points from the peak in continuous slide. Read my article on OMC again and come back to me again on this issue. OMC today are the best buys not only now but even if they go up by another 50% from current level. OMC and especially IOC is still the best ever recommendations that I have ever made. When the people chase the stocks after seeing strong rally one way up, I have no control on their urges.

    Yes, EVINIX and BIRLA POWER were my bad picks. They were not strongly suggested. They being penny stocks always fluctuate by wide margin. Downside risk of all stocks trading below Rs 20 is always 30% or more. I have never suggested aggressive buying of these stocks at any time.

    MTNLIt was shown to be the long term buy. It is a debt free company with book value almost nearly 4 times (that is, trading at nearly 25% of book value). Cash rich, no debt was the virtue of this company. Recent fall was more market related.

    Please note that I have advocated selling of all stocks by Mid October upto 95% regardless of the names. When the market started going up I asked the readers to invest only 15% to 20% in high quality stocks, clearly telling them that inflation was on rise, interest rates on rise, and india will be entering self inflicted recession and that the future global market crash will have epicenter in India.

    Check the records which are already in the CMCA column and articles are already there in place.

    GOLD and SILVER also were projected very high when they were first recommended. While gold rosé 70%, Silver rosé by 110%. There is already an article “Gold $ 6400 and Silver $80” published long time ago.

  124. Sub: Middle East crisis, Oil price surge
    Dear Sir,
    In line of the middle east crisis , do you suggest if there is any international game plan behind this to divert world’s attention from Europe to middle east ?
    $amir, Pune , 03/02

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Wednesday, March 02, 2011
    It has been long intention of US, Europe and UK to break the oil cartel – but they are not succeeding. They therefor use coy word “Democracy”. The despots in middle east do not like this word at all. The Europeans are not pro-actively involved in manipulations of any kind. The focus on financial crisis in Europe is an attempt by United States to divert world attention from its own problems to other competitor – that is – Europe. It is not Europeans attempt, conscious or unconscious, to divert world attention from Europe to Middle East.

    Basically, it is ongoing process, and if US succeeds in its attempts, the oil price control or manipulation will shift its place from Middle East to USA and London. In one way it is a good development in that the violence and exploitation of women in middle east will end progressively and we will have less bomb blasts than before. If you take away the money or monetizing power of any asset, their (owner’s) strength is depleted and weakness grows.

    There are two ways to become stronger. One right way – by getting stronger than others and second – may be wrong way – by making others weaker than oneself. Personally, I would not have any regrets in seeing the Middle East getting democratic so that the free knowledge spreads. Look at the Muslims in India – they are better placed, educated and doing good business and their women folks are looked upon with respect and exploited least in India than other Islamic nations – REASON -they live in democracy in India. Other Islamic nations like Malaysia and Indonesia even with limited democracy are relatively safer than those in the Middle East .

    The progress is slow in democracy and very fast in autocratic regime such as China. The reason that China is better place than those despots in Middle East is that former is more responsive to the well being of the people. Again, if some bad ruler comes, there is no way to remove him. Look at Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin etc. They could not be removed easily. The change of leadership is possible only in democracy.

    So do not regret it even if there is a game plan. In politics and business there is always a game plan A, B and C for almost any thing. Let us not waste our time in analyzing it.

  125. India Ruchi Infra
    Dear Sir,
    I have 600 shares of Ruchi infra

    Purchase Price  18                         CMP 25

    Can I book profit and re-enter at lower level? Whether sub 20 level is again possible in this counter during market correction in short term.Please guide me , as I am seeking your intense intuitive reply.
    Anjali Lucknow India 2/3/2011

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Wednesday, March 02, 2011
    Short term you may, because rise has been fast and gains are good at about 33% in short term.

    I normally take long term position, at least for 12 months, otherwise I do not enter the counter at all. However, each person has his own preferences. Go ahead and book profits.


  126. India, Mutual Funds Reg: Payout at Max NAV?
    Dear Sir,
    Over the last few months, I have been noticing the trend that MFs promise that they will pay the max NAV as the payout. I believe even LIC has an option like this. For ex. if the Fund is for 10 years, they will pay the max NAV recorded in the 10-year period or first 7-year period. Are they blindly taking risk by making such promises? Few days back,

    I got a call from a broker who said that they are working on a new version where the payout will be max NAV recorded and the entry price will be min NAV recorded in the first year.

    Are these options really workable?
    Sanjay, Bangalore, INDIA. 1-Mar-11

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Tuesday, March 01, 2011
    There is unwritten rule in investment that you make most money when you are surrounded by 1000 fools. Most naive investors are conned by deceiving brokers or companies into false promises.

    A Mutual Fund’s opening statement in the prospectus is that the past records is no guarantee for future performance. Further, the real assets of any mutual fund is its holding as reduced by its expenses. (management fees, recurring expenses etc.) , So common sense question is how could they guarantee payment of highest ever NAV when the market crashes, say by 70% and its funds value is also down from 50% to 80% depending on its holdings? Where from they would get money to pay the investors in redemption.

    Read the statement from any authorized prospectus correctly and quote “verbatim” to me. Do not rely on any commentary or opinions of any broker, bank, Kalidas or even Jhunjhunwala.

    I do not comments on the heresay or unauthorized version of any statement – it is like wasting time.

  127. Hello Mr Anil,
    Previously, you had mentioned that Gold/Silver will come down during the first 2 weeks of March and will then rally during the end of March. Both the metals are still rallying with no signs of coming down. Shall I enter Silver at current price or shall I wait till the end of 2nd week of March. Please advice.
    Anup Maheshwari, New Jersey, USA, March 1st, 2011

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Tuesday, March 01, 2011
    Your question is similar to when the Investors rushed to buy OMC at whatever prices after our article. Always buy in correction is the golden rule of any investment. Your downside risk is substantially reduced in that case.

    You do not ask the above question on very first day of the beginning of the month. Either wait or just buy if you want to join the momentum player. It is not possible for me to give running commentary on minute to minute and day to day basis.

  128. India-Commodity-Gold,Silver-Different quaries

    Please ignore the previous post as ‘explain’ word was hidden behind ‘Submit Comment’ which was ‘entered’ unwillingly.

    1) On 01-03-2011 at 02:00 p.m. IST as per Bloomberg TV
        Gold- COMEX $ 1413.65, MCX Rs. 20889
        Silver – COMEX $ 33.99, MCX Rs. 49810 and
        Rs. 45.03/$
        But as per formula if converted to Indian Rs. then
        Gold (1413.65/31.1015)X45.03=2046.74 i.e. 20467.40 for 10 gms.
        So for silver should be 49212
        Also applying Kitco measure(1 oz=31.1035 gms) there are still mismatches. Please   explain.

    2) On enquiry a Kolkata based old and reknowned Gold trader in our locality told me that Rs. 500 will be taken as making charge and 1% tax additional to the price of 24k 10 gms gold vanilla bar.
        If purchased by them they will deduct 5%. Will it be fair to deal with them?

    3) From your article on Gold and Silver
    “I have a Gold Target of $ 1500 (by March, 2010), $ 1800 (June, 2010), $ 2100 (Sep 2010),
    $2400 (Mar 2011), $2800 (Dec 2011) and $3200 (June 2012) in normal circumstances due to
    investor’s demand and weakness in currency WITHOUT taking into account the short covering

    related rise or additional Central Bank purchase (such as India).”

         Just curious to know your readjusted time fram,es.

    Anil Deb,Durgapur,India,01-03-2011

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Tuesday, March 01, 2011
    Your point (1) already explained in your earlier post.
    (2) Kalidas does not make market by making statements. There are hardly 2000 people following me whereas gold and silver market is followed by millions of people by physical or paper demand.

    When you quote me, give the proper reference, so that I could make comment.

    Did not understand the  Chinese action of  increasing treasury holding by 30% in just one year.  http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ara39JZTOpjE 
     Do you think China  bowed down to the US pressure? Do you think releasing such data now is to pacify US  not to support pro democracy rallies in China like (Libya, Egypt ect)
    Bangalore India

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Tuesday, March 01, 2011
    No need to interpret from one side report. China might have hedged the exposure in forward market in London selling dollar and buying other currencies which will not be known from bland US official figures on real holding. We are living in the world of derivatives – you know that very well.

    China is the only country in the world that will never bow down to US pressure. Their leadership is very pragmatic. Chinese are not loose spine humanoid like Japanese, India and rest of the Asians. They do what they want and do not care for US, India, Australia or even God.

  130. SUB: INDIA/COMMODITY/Silver Buy?

    Dear Anil Jee,

    Thank you for your valuable guidance in advance.As advised by you to one of the readers above (Mr. Bilal Vohra/Kanpur) to buy silver around Rs.48,000  or anything below 50,000/-…I am a bit confused…Now for us sitting in India, the $ level being displayed on sites like Kitco.com should be followed (Your earlier advise to buy around $28)  
    or the Indian Rupee of Rs.48,000 to Rs.50,000 should be made the entry point.We are also hearing that silver could go down to as low as 42,000/-..do you see such possibility shortly (in next two weeks time).Please advise.


    Vandana Kothari
    Udaipur (Rajasthan )
    01 March, 2011

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Tuesday, March 01, 2011
    I do not monitor India prices in rupee terms as much depends on the exchange rates, import duty and VAT if one wants to buy the metals from the market against official bill. Further, Indian prices quote 0.995 purity whereas our prices are based on 0.999 purity basis.

    Use my gold price calculator mentioned in one of my articles on gold. It is a excel spreadsheet which considers almost all variables.

    You have to use Indian prices based on real time exchange rates of Rupee vs Dollar. The formula is
    (Price of Gold or Silver in $ terms, say X) / 31.1095 x gms . It gives you price per gram. Gold is trading in India on 10 gms basis,so multiply x 10 and silver trading on Kg basis, multiply the above x 1000

    For gold, it will be X/31.1095 x 10 x Exchange Rate = Px/10 gms
    For silver, it will be X/31.1095 x 1000 x Exchange rate = Px/kg

    Since you are in India, you have to use Rupee prices finally which you can easily work out. Use thebulliondesk.com for real time prices and click India for Rupee prices on real time basis.

    I always buy in correction. I do not chase otherwise there is more chance to get trapped. Only few days ago, the silver after hitting $34.23 crashed to $26 in just 3 days.

    At the moment, the silver is in extreme bullish trend. When the metal breaks all time high, it usually goes higher by another 10% as momentum players get in. So, if you do not wish to miss the rally, you may buy small size (that suits your pocket) and more in correction to the level shown to the readers here before.

  131. India-Commodity-Gold,Silver-Different quaries

    1) On 01-03-2011 at 02:00 p.m. IST as per Bloomberg TV
        Gold- COMEX $ 1413.65, MCX Rs. 20889
        Silver – COMEX $ 33.99, MCX Rs. 49810 and
        Rs. 45.03/$
        But as per formula if converted to Indian Rs. then
        Gold (1413.65/31.1015)X45.03=2046.74 i.e. 20467.40 for 10 gms.
        So for silver should be 49212
        Also applying Kitco measure(1 oz=31.1035 gms) there are still mismatches. Please   explain.

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Tuesday, March 01, 2011
    When will you learn to append your signatures?

    Reply: Exchange rates. The rupee appreciated in last two days from mid of 45.40 to 44. 94 now or 45.03 quoted by you.

    I do not know whether MCX applies real time exchange rates. In all probability they should but they do not quote the rates used while quoting Rupee prices.

    In present case, the possible exchange rate used by them was 45.95 which is 1% higher than 45.45. It is possible they added 1% import duty or local VAT on top of the conversion.

    Check with MCX directly.

    If you want real time Indian Rupee gold and silver rates based on dynamic exchange rate, visit thebulliondesk.com and click “India” from pull down menu. You will get rupee prices on real time tick basis.


    CMCA – 2011-02 February PDF file can be downloaded from Box.net. Either visit the box.net from the sidebar or click the above link to download. HTML format will be posted soon.


    Anil Selarka (Author)
    USA, March 1, 2011

  133. India-bullion- Sure Shot Up side in MCX??

    Sir as u said a few days back that gold and silver will correct in first and second month of march and will shoot up in last days of the month. So is it worth taking a position in MCX and around what prices.

    Thanks & Regards
    Bilal Vohra-Kanpur-India

    I do not follow MCS but I follow US exchanges – Comex, Nymex etc. and As the contract expiration period is over, it all depends the level of physical delivery being insisted on. Such information is known to Exchange officials and leading participants only.

    Since the contracts have been rolled over to April for Gold and Silver contracts will be expiring in March, I take the view that Silver will be more stronger than gold for next 2 months. In fact, last month alone, the Silver rosé 18% and Gold just 6%. This shows relative weakness in gold and strength for Silver.

    Wait for next 5 to 7 days and see whether these metals correct (gold may correct more – next vital contract expires in April). Normally they correct 3 days in a row, so buy it on third day or fourth day of fall to get better entry price.

    Silver rosé 4 times during last one month to reach the upper resistance level. It is having very solid bullish trend. I would not be surprised if it moves 20% in single day (it can also fall 6% to 9% in paper trades). Gold will have more bullish trend in April than in this month.

    In India, take some position in silver in any correction. 48K is an ideal entry price but anything below 50K is acceptable. Immediate sales target is Rs 56000 to 60,000 in last week of March, 2011.

  134. India, ETF, UTI Goldsshare , SBI Gets, Reg: Backing by Gold
    I was going through the UTI Goldshare prospectus where they mention that the gold is being kept by the custodian in vaults in Mumbai. I am providing the link for the brochure below,
    http://www.sebi.gov.in/mfdp/utigold.pdf    ( Page 29) .
    1. Could you shed some light on this arrangement as i thought that Gold for Gold ETFs is generally kept in London.  Does this make the ETF free from manipulation? The price of this ETF however, quotes Rs 30 less than the actual price of gold.
    2. Also do you see any problems in Gold ETFs in the near future?
    3. Kotak Gold states that the Gold is kept in London. i have not been able to get any information for SBO Gets.
    I do own physical gold but since i have put in money in ETFs about a year back i would like to exit when Gold is maybe $1600 per ounce as they have been giving good returns..and when i need money to buy stocks..

    Patra, NJ , USA, February 28th 2011.

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Monday, February 28, 2011
    My reply:

    1. There is nothing that can not be manipulated. This is not 100% Gold ETF. They can invest 10% in investment grade debt securities. Further, the custodians are (1) Stock Holding Corporations of India (2) HDFC Bank and (3) Citibank. There is no sub-limit per bank. So they can maintain holding with Citibank in entirety. Citibank does not have good reputation in Hong Kong , particularly where you can see practically everyday demonstration from local Chinese investors who felt that they were deceived by Citibank’s gold scheme. Two of such Chinese have even committed suicides.

      There is no guarantee that the gold owned by the custodians would not be let or leased out for short sale or otherwise. When the banks lease out the gold, they earn the lease interest which becomes income for the fund. If the borrowers of the gold do not return the gold, then the custodians would face default and they have to either buy out the gold from the open market using the cash securities given by the borrower or margin money to pay for the gold. Thus, it can make money on leasing the gold and also reinvesting the margin cash into debt securities to earn more interest. If the interest rates rise, which are rising, those debt securities too would lose value. With every rise of interest rate by 1%, the debt securities lose market value by 8% to 12% depending on the maturity time left.

      Leasing out the gold is the most popular method for FED, Central Banks around the world. Yes, the gold is physically lying with them but the real ownership lies somewhere else. This is why in my book – Sub Prime Resolved, in the chapter on gold, I have proved that FED or USA do not have 8138 tons of gold as claimed because almost 6300 tons were leased out and technically some others were the owners. JP Morgan is reported to be largest borrowers of gold (for shorting in the market) and their liabilities may be anywhere from 1000 tons to 5000 tons.

    2. There is always risk in holding paper. Paper is a paper. It is a promise. Like you lend money to someone and he gives you the Demand Promissory Notes or DPN. Is it cash or just paper? At the moment, it may appear that all is well. So far as the gold or silver is concerned, I would own it physically and not as ETF or paper. Keeping the gold with some one is like keeping in trust one’s wife with a friend or otherwise. Then, a day comes which Raj Kapoor sang so well in Sangam – Dost Dost Na Raha, Pyaar Pyaar Na Raha, Zindagi hame tera etbaar na raha
    3. I do not see the problem in investing in Gold ETF now especially when the bank like UTI (now AXIS Bank) is unofficially owned by Government of India. However, I would be careful in picking up other ETF like Kotak, Reliance Capital etc. Kotak may claim that its gold is in London and it also has a branch in London. What is the guarantee that Kotak or its own branch would not lease the gold to others to earn extra interest? Those borrowers are mostly hedge funds or short sellers. Kotak does not have enviable reputation.

      In bad times, never trust a stock broker or an Investment Bank. Look around who failed or came under severe financial squeeze during financial crisis and what was common in them? Bears Stearn, (also a custodian), Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland, Citibank etc etc. all were exposed to paper securities. When you think of safety net, there is no safe keeper than your own self. Yes, buying and selling ETF is easy, so long as there is a market. What if there is no market in paper?

    For the time being, there is no risk in owning ETF but above explanation gives you idea what is gold and what is paper derivative – (ETF). The financial crisis was caused by the collapse of paper derivatives.

    Enjoy the ride if it is for a few months or a year or so. However, always monitor the ETF and get out at slightest hint of troubles.

  135. India-Budget->IT & Oil
    Dear Sir,

    Finance ministry didn’t think of IT Industry or OMCs in this budget. What is your view on these sectors. Especially on Satyam and IOC. Is it the right time to average these stocks?

    28th Feb’11: 23:36

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Monday, February 28, 2011
    The market may correct a bit since not much benefits or positives are seen in the budget. It will take this weekend to digest the analysis. So wait until next Tuesday or Wednesday to buy Satyam or IOC/MRPL/HPCL/ONGC/BPCL in that order.

  136. Subject: India, Budget 2011 and OMCs

    Hi Anil,
    The budget did not remove any duties on oil as proposed by oil ministry. This seems negative for OMCs. But, looks like the diesel deregulation is on track since if they had removed duties means it would be an indication that the deregulation is all ruled out and they compensated OMCs by removing the duties. What do you think? Or this budget is all negative for OMCs?

    (Also, OMCs may increase the petrol price by Rs4 this week http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/oil-gas/union-budget-2011-omcs-may-raise-petrol-prices-by-up-to-rs-4-a-litre-this-week/articleshow/7596930.cms)

    Hemant, USA.
    Feb 28,2011

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Monday, February 28, 2011
    You have interpreted correctly. If the government has decided not to cut the custom/excise duty, and also it has not raised the cash subsidy level, it indicate that it has mentally prepared to allow or partially deregulate the diesel prices. Owing to this perception, GOI must have felt that there was no need to make provision as market price will take care of it. The EGM or Empowered Group of Ministers will meet soon on diesel, kerosene and LPG prices. Last month it was postponed. Now that the budget is out, they have no option but to decide on deregulation. Either you pay up the cash subsidy (which FM does not agree) or let the OMC recover the shortfall by raising the prices of Diesel and LPG (Kerosene will be too sensitive at this stage)

    So our thinking is on right track, so also the recommendations. Yes, the stocks may correct a bit in fits due to such news releases. But rationally speaking, if the nose is squeezed, the mouth is bound to open. So if there are no cuts in custom/excise duty and cash subsidy (squeezing the nose) there would be raising of diesel and LPG prices (opening of mouth as result). Further, the government wants to make ONGC divestment issue a real success, so it has to announce partical deregulation of diesel and LPG prices. Put them all together, you have a solid conclusion.

  137. India , Gas Sector, <HPCL, PETRONET, GSPL >, Reg: <Changing Preference of Gas Over Oil>
    Posting again
    Dear Sir,
    I’m a frequent visitor to your blog. I have learned a lot from reading your blog in last 16 months.

    As per the article quoted by Syam ( http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=2012968&contentId=7067388 ) and your explanation of the event i could really understand why these events (reported in the Links below) are happening.



    In this context is it a good idea to buy Gas stocks with good presence and distribution network like PETRONET, GSPL and HPCL?

    Secondly, what are the preferred price points/ranges to make entry into these stocks?
    Thirdly, Do you see the Gas stocks performing better than OMCs like IOC, BPCL and MRPL?

    Lastly, I will remain indebted to you for the knowledge and Stock picking way you have taught us.  Did I understand correctly that this blog will be a paid one from Next month (march 2011 ) or sometime in near future? I wish good luck to you.

    <Skyrocks>, <Singapore>, <1st Mar 2011>

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Monday, February 28, 2011
    I will reply here tomorrow. Sorry for missing your query in February but your questions were replied to others many times in the past. It becomes repetition for me.

  138. India, ETF, UTI Goldsshare , SBI Gets, Reg: Backing by Gold
    I was going through the UTI Goldshare prospectus where they mention that the gold is being kept by the custodian in vaults in Mumbai. I am providing the link for the brochure below,

    http://www.sebi.gov.in/mfdp/utigold.pdf    ( Page 29) .

    1. Could you shed some light on this arrangement as i thought that Gold for Gold ETFs is generally kept in London.  Does this make the ETF free from manipulation? The price of this ETF however, quotes Rs 30 less than the actual price of gold.

    2. Also do you see any problems in Gold ETFs in the near future?

    3. Kotak Gold states that the Gold is kept in London. i have not been able to get any information for SBO Gets.

    I do own physical gold but since i have put in money in ETFs about a year back i would like to exit when Gold is maybe $1600 per ounce as they have been giving good returns..and when i need money to buy stocks..


    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Monday, February 28, 2011
    Follow the norms. Append your signature. No reply posted

  139. Subject : Budget did no good for OMCs ?
    Dear Kalidas Sir,
    What are your views on OMCs in light of budget where Pranab has not reduced any taxes on OMCs, reducing their earning capability, and with higher inflation , the petrol prices cant be increased either.  Please advise, do they still hold good for creating long positions for this fiscal.
    $amir, Pune , 02/28

    Author, Anil Selarka, replies on …Monday, February 28, 2011
    ET reports that OMC proposed to raise the petrol prices by Rs 4/liter.

    There is also no cut on the Custom or excise duty on oil imports. Nor government will give more subsidies. It indicates that the government has decided internally to go for the partial deregulation of diesel and LP Gas prices. Try to read between the lines.


    Dear Sir,

    BSE: 500800, NSE: TATAGLOBAL, ISIN: INE192A01025

    It is trading at 52 Wk low. Is it good time to enter this stock now?
    What could be the upside potential for long term?

    Request your advice.

    Suresh BS, Bangalore, INDIA
    28th Feb, 2011

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