949-228-7621 anilselarka@gmail.com

Confused Mind Clear Answers (2011-04)

April, 2011

Ref: CMCA – 2011-03 of 1st April, 2011

Basic Requirements to Post Queries and Stocks Inquiries.
I am starting today “2011, April series”. Post your March comments here using comment box at the bottom or add comment on the top. This I am going to implement strictly in future. Use the Readers Corner to make any suggestions for any stock to be covered by us in future.

The readers may note another important protocol. Please post your comments in the following format: THIS IS A MUST REQUIREMENTS

HEADING – Write in Capital letters, Country, name of the stock enquired about or title of major issue as per reader’s choice. Do not extend beyond one line. write in this fashion: Do not use < or > tag which is used in HTML format.
Instead, just separate the items by “,” or comma.
Country or Global , Stocks or Commodity, Stock or commodity name, Reg: Subject.
Make it Bold using built in word processor (after selection of text, press “B” from the menu within the comment box)
  • India, Stocks, Reliance Industries Ltd., Reg: Sustainable Target
  • Global, Precious Metals, Gold or Silver, Reg: Are they still good to buy?
  • US, Economy, Reg: Housing Recovery
  • Global, Currencies, Aussie Dollar, Reg: when to sell?
  • India, Bonds, IFCI Infrastructure Bonds, Reg: IPO – Is it good to subscribe?
  • India, Stocks, Ashtavinayak, Reg: Trapped. Need Solution
  • HK, Stocks, PetroChina (Symbol), Reg: About right issue

  1. Write your query or specific question very clearly.
  2. If you are trapped in certain stocks, indicate Quantity, Cost and CMP (Current Market Price). Without these details, no answer will be posted.
  3. Do not seek any opinion on unknown stocks. This column is not meant for new recommendations.
  4. Do not use compliments for my predictions or assessments. Yes, you can criticize.
  5. Write each issue in one Para. Do not go beyond 4 paragraphs. Each para not to exceed 3 lines.
  6. Write to the point, do not be apologetic for anything nor bother about what I would feel about your post, just speak out your confused mind or confusion in simple narration style.
  7. Do not discuss personal problem in these columns as far as possible
  8. Use your normal word processor, to write your comments first, think over it, have it spell checked with proper capitalization, and then only post it. Avoid posting by cell phone as far as possible.
  9. Make a standard format or template using the present protocol, so that you do not forget anything like your name, city etc. 

Write Real or nick Name, City, Country, Date of Post, All in one line.
Formatting your posts in above manner will make entire post pleasant, eye catching, and highlight the stocks or subject in such a way that other readers can scroll through easily to find what they want even from your message.

It is a fee based solution. Send your portfolio with your problems and expectation. Send it over to readers.kalidas@gmail.com
This column is free for about 2 months after which it will be “subscription based” from 1st April, 2011. Prior announcement will be made however.

Some readers refer to me personal problems relating to their life. I suggest them not to post them over her. Instead, send me an email to

DISCLAIMER: The Author uses his vast experience of about 42 years in finance especially in bank, stock markets, bond trading, currencies, precious metals etc. He is retired and does not have allegiance to any brokerage firm,.bank, investment bank or any other professional or listed company. However, he expressly disclaims any liability for any loss, damage suffered by any reader of this blog by following any opinion or advice given by the author in good faith and without negligence. This is a free service, and should be used it at Reader’s risk and responsibility.No liability – Civil, Criminal or Tort – shall attach to the Author.
Kalidas (Anil Selarka)
Hong Kong, 1st April, 2011


  1. Dear Sir
    I invested 5lakh rupee in different stock through karvy and lost all within four months as karvy misguided to invest in stocks when price go up and put fear to sell off when price come down.
    At the end when I had two stocks IGL BGR they sold without my knowledge though the CMP at that time was in positive, when asked to karvy personnel he said this was done on the force of karvy head office as I was in negative of my principle amount invested.
    My question is why they allowed to buy a stock when I was in negative?
    If the value of my principle amount coming to zero why not they remined me?
    Is there any legal way to claim my losses which was happened because of karvy?
    kindly reply
    thanks and best regards

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, July 26, 2012
    Always append your signature and location details before seeking reply. Your reply will be posted tomorrow

    No one loses entire amount of Rs 5 Lakhs in matter of months even if the market drops by 50%. It appears to me that you were involved into leveraged futures and options trade. Normally, most of the account managers in brokerage firms work on commission basis with little salary. So they involve you to run leveraged trade running into Rs 5 lakhs to Rs 10 lakhs trade per trade, and utilize only 10% of your capital. They try to square their positions at the end of the day so that two trades generate enough commissions for them. If your trades are leveraged 10 times (10% margin) and if the stock or futures/options loses just 3%, you lose 30% of your capital. Further, if the trade becomes profitable, the concerned Account Manager transfer or books the trade into his account, and if he loses, he let it remain in your account.

    This is unfair trade practices and illegal. If you have not specifically consented a specific trade, it is not binding on you. The NSE, BSE and SEBI do not take strict actions against erring brokers and what they tell you is just “wash off”.

    Most of the time, the trade confirmations are not even sent to you, so that you are totally in dark about the trade. What you need to do is as under:
    1. Get the full statement of account from the firm from the date such trades just started.
    2. Disown all trades you never authorized.
    3. Send all contract notes and statements to SEBI with a copy to NSE and BSE
    4. Arrange a meeting with Karvy especially their compliance department, and disown all trades.
    5. Send a legal notice to the Karvy to recover the amount lost due to unauthorized trade.

    Better open an account with banks like HDFC and trade through them even if their charges are higher thank Karvy. Always remember “Cheap is not the Best always” They cheat you by following conman’s tactics and get all documents signed by you by asking you to sign “in blank”. Always take a photocopy of all documents you sign.


    Please post your new comments in May 2011 section.





  3. India, Rebalancing Holdings, Stock SIP,
    Dear Sir,
    I am holding undermentioned shares:
    GSPL 500@103 CMP 98
    HPCL 400@450 CMP 372
    IDBI 300@125 CMP 143
    IFCI 2000@51 CMP 52
    IOC 1500@367 CMP 340
    MRPL 500@74 CMP 74
    MTNL 1500@57.50 CMP 48Kalidas View … do nothing
    MAHSATYAM 1000@84 CMP 84
    ONGC 400@300 CMP 308
    RUCHIINFRA 5000@37.50 CMP 24.50 Kalidas View … Buy 5000 more at CMP
    SPICEJET 500@57 CMP 41 Kalidas View … Buy 2500 at CMP
    ZEENEWS 4200@15.05 CMP 11.40 Kalidas View … Buy 5800 at CMP
    Sir, I want to do SIP of Rs. 25,000/- per month in stocks for the next five years. I therefore seek your advice in selecting the stocks for the same.

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 30, 2011
    Reply as above. No actions for other stocks. You have to inject fresh funds to average down the stocks having more than 30% losses.

  4. Dear Sir
    Gentle reminder to start May series CMCA. Thanks
    Swastika, Kolkata, India

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 30, 2011
    Done, thanks.

  5. Singapore – Query on SGD and OMC’s

    Some queries:
    a) I hold my savings in SGD. Is NZD a better currency than SGD for diversification ?
    b) Why do you recommend not selling OMC’s before Q4 results? With oil prices high in the last quarter, what good news can be expected from the results ?
    Bobby, Singapore

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 29, 2011
    NZ$ may appreciate faster than Sing$
    I do not want to speculate on OMC. Let their result come out. When I take 5 years position, there is no point of looking at it every minute,day, month and quarter. Either stay with it on long haul basis or reduce the position in rally and re-enter when the desired news is out.

  6. Dear Sir
    One thing I did not understand about Obama Govt working on increasing of Debt ceiling.
    If US GOV passes Debt ceiling bill after having consensus with Republican why should USD rise and gold fall as you have mentioned some where in the blog? Increasing debt ceiling is nothing but allowing Treasury to create more debt bonds and sell it to Fed and create more liquidity/spend more money on Govt schemes. That means Printing more money by FED .
    So US $ should reduce its value further and GOLD should rise faster if debt limit is increased. Am I right? Then why should the reverse thing would happen in Middle May(Rising USD and Falling Gold)?

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 29, 2011
    Goddess Kali is worshipped even if she is destructive.

    The market prices go up or down in anticipation. Sell on Rumors Buy back on Facts is the principle. When agreement is reached, it means that US government will not close down, so it is a good news. After a couple of days, the fundamentals will prevail and Gold will continue to go higher.

  7. INDIA Markets – Debt MFs – is it worth Investing in them


    My Broker told me today that Debt MFs are going to give batter returns over 10 year periods compared to FDs.
    His hypothesis is that

    1) FDs are not secured in India so something happens then government securities are the best place to hide with returns of around 8%.  
    2) Retail investors can not invest large sums in government securities ( entry is 1 crore and that is HNI category.) 

    So for SECURE stable returns debt MFs are best.
    I am going to retire soon so security is better for me.

    Please advice and show alternates if any.

    Thanks, Romal, Jaipur, India

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 29, 2011
    I do not know which Debt MF you are referring to. The debts could be of two types – Government debt and non-Government or Corporate debt.

    You buy debt when the interest rates are high and about to go down. Otherwise you lose money (in book only). Interest rates in India are still not high enough because oil prices are rising, so also the inflation. When the oil prices begin to slide, the inflation may come under control, and then it would be a good time to enter.

    I do not invest into Debt Mutual Fund. Unless it is from very large company like Templeton or Fidelity, I would not trust Indian MF including Axis Bank (UTI).

    Most banks in India are still nationalized. I would place my deposit there even for 10 years earning about 10% interest safely and securely. You can not say about Corporate sector which is heavily leveraged. One may try leading semi government bodies like IFCI or Power Finance Corporation to buy their debt if interest rates or yield are 12% at least. If you do not understand the concept of yield or interest rates or how the debt behaves, do not bother about it and instead focus on bank deposits like FD of nationalized banks or some private banks like HDFC. IDBI Bank.

  8. Indian stock, SPICEJET, Out look

    Dear Sir,

    Kindly give your view on outlook for spicejet. how do you find company’s future in 2 years? What is your expectation for jan-march-2011 quarter result? Will ther any negetive effect on company if DMK party loose election in tamilnadu?


    Darshan Joshi

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 29, 2011
    I can not reiterating my views on Spicejet again and again. I have already expressed my views in the past. There is no change in my views. DMK party has nothing to do with Spicejet. Do not involve politics with economics. Such cheap stuff is for rumor mongers or story tellers. If Chairman of Spicejet has some connection with the DMK leadership, does not matter.

  9. INDIA. UCO Bank Reg: Impact of provisions on Long term prospects

    Dear Kalidasji

    UCO Bank Q4 net profit down 40.5% at Rs 226 cr
    UCO Bank has reported fourth quarter FY11 net profit of Rs 226 crore, a 40.5% degrowth compared to Rs 380 crore in same quarter the previous year.Net interest income increased to Rs 844 crore from Rs 744 crore in the same period. The bank had made provisions of Rs 341 crore, nearly 93% more as compared to Rs 177 crore in Q4FY10.
    Please read following link


    Please advise if this stock can be suitable for long term?

    Suchitra , Mumbai, India 29.04.2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 29, 2011
    Hold back for a while. We were right in suggesting not to buy banking stocks until the final result is out and another 6 months pass by. Due to rise in interest rates, there are bond losses which are to be booked while valuing it “Mark to Market”. In theory, they are not going to lose money because they are going to hold it till maturity and will get back same par value at which they invested.

    However, UCO bank one of the lender to some construction and developers where it may be losing money at least on paper for the time being. They will also lose in real sense because some of the speculative builders, contractors and developers will not have new money to complete the projects and would have spent money in buying paper assets like TDR (Transfer of Development Rights) in big cities like Mumbai. There will be more losses from October end quarters.

    You better take a holiday for a while. If at all you want to invest into banks, chose Yes Bank, Development Credit Bank, IDBI Bank etc. and not other banks who were active in financing speculative developers.

    However, if UCO bank does go Rs 92 or about, take position. Except for some construction loans, the bank is well poised for growth otherwise.

  10. US Banking-Silver-JPM Short position
    Dear Sir,
    I suppose this below message skipped your attention. Reposting the same. 
    I had read a comment before that beyond 36$ an ounce for silver, JPM would be in serious trouble to the extent of bankrupcy. Silver is touching 50$ an ounce now.  Is JPM in serious trouble or bailed out?  its failure will surely have ripple effect on entire banking system which might triger the next collapse of equity markets.  Are we moving towards this anytime soon?
    Best regards,

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 28, 2011
    No one knows how much short the JPMC is. They may be taking short position in their own name or any of its subsidiary in off shore haven. Comments are comments and unless they back them up with some factual or even imaginary figures, then we can work out the potential losses. JPMC is a big bank with unlimited line of credit from FED. They can print its way out to save JPMC. When they could do for Citibank, why not JPMC?

  11. INDIA, STOCKS, OMC, Hold or Sell?

    Dear Sir,

    I have around 1 Lakh(around 10% of my funds)  invested in HPCL and IOC for now.

    Should i liquidtate the holdings and reacquire after stock price falls?

    With Regards,
    Kolkata, India, April 28th

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 28, 2011
    Read the Box above this column and re-post your query.

    Kalidas ji,
    You have missed my query on Japanese currency posted on 26 Apr 11 at 3:50 PM. I appreciate if you could respond to this.

    KeeYes, Tokyo, Japan

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 28, 2011
    When the dollar drops sharply, it will drop almost equally against Japanese Yen and Indian Rupees. It is not wise to wait any longer because interest yield on yen is near Zero. If you convert Yen into Rupee now and retain in local currency (Domestic Indian Rupee), you can get nearly 10% yield in terms of interest. If you wait for 2 years, you are losing 20% yield. It is wise to send the money now.

    In any case, Indian Rupee will be convertible in next 3 years or so. there will be no distinction later between NRI and Local Indians. All Indian Rupee will become convertible.

    This is what happened when several years back when India was facing Forex problem, the interest rates on NRO or local deposits went as high as 18% and on compounded basis 23%. Our 3 year cumulative deposit used to yield Rs 169,000 for Rs original deposit of Rs 100,000. The NRE interest were almost 7% lower. I transferred most of my money to NRO account and got yield of 23% per year. I did it twice which got me nearly 120% total yield in 6 years. (once renewal for 3 years). Later, Government of India converted all NRO deposit into NRE deposit. I smiled over NRE holders because their yield was 65% in 6 years, whereas mine was 120%.

    Writing is on wall – Indian Rupee will be convertible in 3 years or so. So convert all Yen into Rupee now. If you want to earn only on Yen, it is different matter.

  13. Subject :- Accumulate Hong Kong Dollar ?
    Dear Kalidas Sir,
    As I said earlier, I am in Hong Kong currently, and my stay is getting over in May.
    With western union money transfer office in wan chai, the rate by selling INR and buying HKD is around 7 INR= 1 HKD. My question is
    a) where would I get more HKD against INR ? naturally from my understanding it should be in Hong Kong as supply for HKD is more and not in India.but your views on this.
    b) In line with our view of HKD appreciation..would you advise me to sell more INR here in HK and buy HKD , and accumulate HKD in physical form
    c) If yes , which is the best place in HK to get best rate for INR .
    Humble Regards,
    $amir,  One Pacific Place, Queensway , Hong Kong , 04/28/11

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 28, 2011
    Western Union is quoting you “black market” or “havala” rate for your conversion which is not useful for you. The real rate is about 5.70 (Use Official US Dollar rate to rupee and divide by current HK$ rate to US$ which is 7.77. that is 44.30/7.77 = 5.70. Currency rates are also generally expensive.

    I think RBI allows Indians liberal US$ allowance and also permit them to invest overseas upto US$ 100,000 officially. You may open the account with any Hong Kong bank with presence in India such as Standard Chartered Bank or HSBC or any Indian Bank (avoid them if you can) and wire the money from India.

    or Buy US$ currency from India under FTS (Foreign Travel Scheme) and use those dollars to be deposited into Passbook Savings account with any of the named banks in Hong Kong.

    As explained, the INR Cash rates (selling Indian Rupees against HK$ or US$) are black market rates. Indian Rupee is not a convertible currency. Further this is not right time to convert into HK$. It is only when the pressure mounts on HK Government to abandon the peg, then only it will be wise to convert. Drop this idea. It is meant more for people living in free currency market area or those living in Hong Kong.


    Dear Sir,
    I am having 1000 Shares of Hpcl @ 430/-, Now the CMP-376(already appreciated 20% from the recent lows made in 1st week of March).

    Should I buy Now at CMP or wait for the Correction that is going to happen in the Market after 1st week of May(as anticipated by you), And what is the good level to enter after correction?

    And Do you think that DIESEL DEREGULATION will happen anytime soon in Near future or NOT? 

    Sakchi, Delhi, India

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 28, 2011
    why did not you buy when it was about 20% cheaper than now, or about 330/340 when your cost was 430?

    Anyway, wait until its final result is out and then decide.

    I do not expect diesel price deregulation anytime soon. The government will do it when the oil prices are low or on declining trend because after deregulation it can show that the prices are going down, not up, so as to blow up the success in deregulation.

  15. Respected Sir,
    I am very sorry for breaking your rules, Sir, I shall be careful in future. And also very grateful for your valuable time. Actually Sir, I was asking for future Silver buying.
    Ramesh Roy,
    Kolkata, India 

  16. Dollar Index

    Dear Sir,

    Its a pleasure to read your daily ‘ripping apart’ of the market moves. You are the ‘financial farmer’ who separates the chaff from the grain when everyone seems to be getting lost in the chaos.

    My question is: you expect dollar index to go down another 5%, dollar to lose value further. What do you expect next ? 
    Kalidas View … Nothing.

    + Are you expecting the dollar to rebound sharply thereon, as that’s a reasonable course for the FED to ensure continuous buying of US Debt by sovereigns ?
    Kalidas View … There is none.

    + You have given a Sell Call; and S&P typically has a negative correlation with DXY. Is the expected rebound of USD a critical reason behind your Sell Call ?
    Kalidas View … There is no such correlation. If US markets are rising without US$ rising, it means that only local money is boosting the stocks. Foreign investors are not buying. My ‘SELL” call is not immediate but it is more like a lull before a massive storm.

    The foreign sovereign holders will be analyzing Bernanke’s stance over this weekend and the actions of dumping dollar might begin next week from Tuesday or Wednesday. At the most it will be delayed by one more week. You have to understand how the government works. The analysts in economic department go through the text and video of the Bernanke’s news conference, assess the reaction from top economic sources and then form a view whether to buy, hold or sell the dollars. Depending on the availability of the Finance Minister, Prime Minister and President, the decisions are taken in a few days. If some other government acts quickly, the pressure on present government will intensify and there will chorus orchestrating same actions. You have to watch the creditor nations, meetings followed there, statements from some top economic advisers and some leaders on continuous basis for next 15 days. These are not military decisions but economic decision where some delay is permissible.

    28 April 2011, Singapore

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 28, 2011
    Reply as above.

  17. Dear Sir,

    At last as you predicted Mumbai property prices started slumping. Hope rest of the India will follow soon  .

    You have the last laugh as you sold  your Mumbai apartments at high prices. :-)


    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 28, 2011
    Thanks. In September 2010 or thereabout, we have forecast that the Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai properties will begin to come down from May 2011. We are towards the end of April, 2011 and effect has started feeling. We also mentioned that the time to look at these properties will be somewhere towards November 2011 (near Diwali) days. We also projected that interest rates will enter double digit (deposit and lending rates) in April which is nearly true. Our forecast of Milk prices hitting Rs 50/ltr by May end may also come true with prices ranging little over Rs 42/ltr in major cities.

    At least we are saving money for our readers.

  18. Dear Sir, last night the silver again went up $ 48.50 sir shall i wait or buy it now at this rates
    ramesh roy,kolkata india

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 27, 2011
    Kindly follow our protocol while posting query. Make sure that your post is complete, letters are capitalized and spell checked. Also title the message. Read this section at the top how to post your inquiries.

    it is extremely volatile. If you wanted to buy you could have bought it when it came down to 45.10. What is the point of buying paying 7% higher. It may work, I do not know. But I have no idea whether you want to buy future contract or physical silver. I do not advise on buying futures because it is a dangerous game, and the reader ought to have experience.

    Make your inquiry meaningful. Do not think that Kalidas is God and read your mind from 2 lines that you post.

  19. INDIA: To buy precious metals on monthly basis or wait for Indian stocks to correct. 

    Dear Sir,

    My wife has started minding a child in her spare time and secured around 600 euros monthly income. I have a good regular income from my job and I do not need this money. She keeps asking me to ask KALIDAS how to plan her money. As it is totally unexpected and extra income, she is prepared to take high risk-high reward approach. I  suggested her,

    To keep buying gold or palladium as suggested by you on a monthly basis.
    Wait for the correction (as predicted by you) to happen and invest into the scripts suggested by you that time.

    Kindly suggest her what will be the best way forward. 

    Thanking you,

    Amit. Galway, Ireland.27 April 2011. 23:16

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 27, 2011
    You are in Ireland, so buy Palladium physically or Online from Pool account. One ounce may cost you Euro 500 or about. But do not be in hurry. Make sure that your account is properly set up and you know how it works. Open an account with Goldline or Kitco or APMEX (in USA). UK is better for you.

    Buying silver is okay but only when it corrects. Alternatively, if you have stock account in India, buy every month 1200 shares of Everready Industries (trading at about Rs 50 or about) which may cost you Rs 60,000. If you never have any stock account in India, forget it and focus what is closer to you – buying Palladium in Ireland physically or from Pool account where the palladium remain in your account and the metal also remain with them in trust for you.

  20. Nifty Put options
    Hello sir,
    in today’s stock observatory you have mentioned that the there is a massive correction in market,
    it will be good idea if we buy Nifty Put options to make profit.
    Amol M, Pune India, Apr 27 2011

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 27, 2011
    I do not play with any indices in India. They are very short term movements that I do not track. If you want to play with the futures or options, the time should be on your side to have successful management.

    My saying of massive correction may not come through immediately which may hurt your put position in short term. I therefore do not advise on indices.

  21. US Banking-Silver-JPM Short position
    Dear Sir,
    I suppose this below message skipped your attention. Reposting the same. 
    I had read a comment before that beyond 36$ an ounce for silver, JPM would be in serious trouble to the extent of bankrupcy. Silver is touching 50$ an ounce now.  Is JPM in serious trouble now and its failure will surely have ripple effect on entire banking system which might triger the next collapse of equity markets.  Are we moving towards this anytime soon?
    Best regards,


    Dear Sir,

    This is your strongest sell call I have seen so far. If Dow is to lose 4000+ points that is almost a 25% drop.

    I am not making any profit on my stock holding. Infact, I am down overall by around 9%. Should I sell ?

    I am just worried about my below holding, if you could help:

    Mahindra Satyam:: 37,000 shares @ 78 :: CMP 74.4

    This is around 85% of my total equity investment right now. The balance 15% is in IOC, HPCL, ONGC and Ruchiinfra. And I am around 65% invested in market.

    I took a call on Satyam after reading your write-ups and saw a strong growth story. I am very bullish on the stock. And ready to hold for next 5-10 years also, if its worth it. My only concern is the merger with Tech Mahindra. These mergers are funny and they never seem to favor small investors.

    What do you advice I should do now in view of the Sell Call?

    27 Apr 2011, Singapore

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 26, 2011
    You have already been informed on Satyam – to wait until its final result and QE 31/3 is out. When we give Sell call, and there are some specific stock specific calls with definite time frame, they operate as “exceptions”. However, when they pass the time frame, they are included back into general stock pattern.

  23. Sir

    I did read your article Gold 6400 and silver 80.

    However you do not mention any reason for increase in palladium prices.

    So what is the logic for palladium target price? Is it that fed continues it’s ultra-low monetary policies, debases paper currency and so precious metals increase in value?

    Where can we buy physical palladium hasslefree in india other MMTC and KITCO? Can it be bought in local jewellery shops?


    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 26, 2011
    Gold 6400 Silver 80 can not contain even reference to Palladium as the title indicates.

    Palladium target prices several times mentioned in CMCA and Stock Observatory column. Again $2100 (low) and $2800 (high) in 18M and 24M. Do not ask me same and same question again.

    I have no idea about availability of Palladium in India. In fact, I would never buy there because there is not enough market. Buy overseas if you are stationed outside India.

  24. sub: a suggestion based on my own personal experience.
    while wholeheartedly thanking you for your sincere efforts to educate the public and spending so much of your valuable time giving wonderful investment ideas, I have one small suggestion to make to you based on my own recent experience. I am really surprised to see the pain you are taking to reply to umpteen no of mails and that too detailed ones. I have been working on my computer for the past 10-yrs and used to put in around 7hrs in office and another 8hrs at home. of late i have developed severe wrist and elbow pain and on consulting my doctors i have been advised to give complete rest to my hands and stop working on the computer for long periods. the fact is that the moment i begin to work on the mouse a severe numbing and burning sensation begins to seep in. and i find this irritation ceases the moment i stop workingon the computer. Many other of my friends have also complained about the same problem. THIS BEING THE CASE SINCE YOU ARE PUTTING IN LONG HOURS I WOULD REQUEST THAT YOU ALSO TAKE NOTICE OF THIS FACT AND WARD YOURSELF FROM BEING AFFECTED BY THE SAME PROBLEM WITH OVERWORK ON THE COMPUTER. ONCE THE PAIN SETS IN THEN YOU CAN FORGET TO WORK ON THE COMPUTER.
    Felt like sharing this information with you since your sincere efforts are much appreciated and i would most definitely wish to see for a long long time on your blog. Of late i am not seen on your site just because of this problem. 
    pls do take care.

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 26, 2011
    Thanks for sharing your pain on the computer. I agree with you that such things do happen to many people, but it appears to me that it is more related to sitting posture. While buying bed, pillow, chair, desk and shoes one has to be very very careful. Most people try to save some money and hurt themselves dearly.

    Much as I try to reply within a few lines, not exceeding 6 lines, harder I find to post convincing reply. When I read the reader’s post or problems, hundreds of ideas enter my mind which if not vented out might cause me frustration for not eking out the proper solution. The purpose of restarting stock observatory was to reduce the queries in CMCA but on the contrary people go on throwing same questions again and expect me to update them on every move.

    At the moment, I am not feeling any fatigue or pain or otherwise. I do some basic exercise in the morning, afternoon and evening at the space of 6 hours which keeps me fine tuned.

  25. Hello Kalidasji,
    As you have mentioned that “Silver may be bought when it is US$ 42.85/43.35”. This time do you expect that the rally from $43 will take past Silver beyond $50 in the month of May?
    Also, as per your recommendation, I have bought Physical Palladium for 2 year perspective.
    Anup Maheshwari, April 26, New Jersey, US

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 26, 2011
    Yes. However, watch the buy level suggested by me. If they do not hold, then it may test the level of 39.84 – down 20% from peak. When that level is broken again, then in the language of brokers, the metal is entering into long term downward trend. I would take a chance near 42.85 to 43.35 to enter the silver again. It is relatively a safe bet with 5% downside and 25% upside in short term and 65% upside in medium term and possible 100% upside in 15 months.It is a real monetary asset after Gold. Those who treat the paper currency as value and dump Gold and Silver as trash do not have a sense of discrimination to understand what is right and wrong.

    As I had mentioned on previous write up, Silver fell and Gold rosé. At the moment, the old theory of inverse relationship of “dollar vs Gold and Silver” is played up. The time has almost come when this decades old theory will no longer work and will be dumped for a long time. Currently, until the Bernanke meeting is over, the commodity prices will be held in check so that he could boldly say that inflation is under control and low rates will continue. The FOMC meeting is today, so these are perhaps the last few days of weakness of Gold and Silver.

    Yes, you did right thing to invest into Palladium. (There is a story going round that Japanese have invented a metal or compound that resembles the property of Palladium, but there are no reasonable evidence. The Japanese are largest automakers where they use Palladium and Platinum as catalysts in carburetor or in some parts of Car)

    I do not think that might happen. Silver was going in almost a vertical line, it had to correct healthily before making a strong attack on the upside. At the level of $50.35 you are reasonably sure that almost every shorting player is losing money.

    Healthy correction is always necessary. After having a very healthy meal or food, one goes for a pee to lighten up, isn’t it? Same thing is for stocks and commodity what they call “profit taking” or “bull liquidation”. No one ever says “Loss taking”. Present real selling is due to some margin calls and imposition of greater margin on silver trading on COMEX only a day before. In fact, COMEX appears to have collaborated with the bears or short players to cause steep fall in Silver prices. (to avoid first ever delivery default by COMEX)

    While we never know the exact short position of Silver by famous shorter JP Morgan Chase, we have to rely on wild rumors being played out by some players with whatever motive. By one estimate, JPMC was having short position of 300 mln Ounces to 1 billion ounces of Silver. If we take even middle figure of 600M Ounces, shorted at average price of $9, then loss of nearly $36 amount to paper loss of US$ 22 billions and if one takes their short position in Gold estimated at minimum 1000 tons to 3000 tons, taken beween $260 to $360 or say $300 per ounce, the loss of $1200 per ounce or $38.5 million per tonne or $ 38.5 billion (on 1000 tons) or $ 115 billions. This makes a tally of paper loss of over $140 billions at one of the largest bank in United States. Still the same bank is showing a rise in profit by over 65%. Dying Flames Shines Brighter towards the End, is is said in Hindu mythology.

    American banking system is not only bankrupted but also corrupted.

  26. Palladium – Payment from KITCO.COM
    Dear Sir,

    This is additional reference to Ms.Asha Sharma. I found the following information at another FAQ at https://online.kitco.com/help/faq_selling_bullion.html

    How will I be paid for physical products that I sell to Kitco?

    You can choose to receive your payment in the form of:
    •A check sent by regular mail for no service fee
    •A check sent by FedEx for a $30 service fee
    •A bank wire for a $40 service fee (for bank wires in CAD/USD), or service fee of the GBP or EUR equivalent of $60 (for bank wires in GBP/EUR)
    •A credit to a cash balance on account
    •An ounce-for-ounce transfer to Kitco Pool

    Hope this helps to Ms.Asha Sharma.

    Best regards,
    NandakumarAS-Bangalore-India-26/04/11 08:34 PM IST

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 26, 2011
    Bank wire fee is payable only when the KITCO remits the money out to you. Not when you remit the money in. However, I will find out actual details from my business partner who deals with KITCO for purchase of silver, gold and palladium on regular basis for large amount.

  27. Palladium-Purchasing from KITCO.COM-Credit Card Payment not accepted

    Dear Sir,

    This post is for reply to Ms. Asha Sharma (with your permission). When I gone through FAQ link provided by Asha Sharma, I found following 2 FAQ which clearly says that they don’t accept Credit Card for Purchase, but it is used to lock the price.

    What methods of payment are acceptable?

    For transactions worth less than $10,000, Kitco accepts bank wires, bank drafts, money orders (Kitco does not accept United States postal orders), official checks, certified checks, cashier’s checks and personal checks (subject to a holding period of ten (10) Business Days from the date of receipt). Note that for any single transaction, payment can be made by only one method in addition to funds on account. Multiple money orders, bank drafts, or checks will not be accepted as payment for a single order.
    For transactions worth over, $10,000, we only accept bank wires.
    Note: Customers residing outside of the United States or Canada can only pay for their transactions by bank wire.
    Can I pay for my transaction with a credit card?
    No, a credit card cannot be used to pay for a transaction. However, for orders worth less than $50,000, you do need to provide us a valid Visa or Master Card number. We ask for your credit card number to lock in your price.

    Hope this helps.

    Thanks for provided the FAQ link, it helped me a lot.

    Best regards,
    NandakumarAS-Bangalore-India-26/04/11 08:21 PM IST

  28. GOLD V DIAMOND                                                                                           
    Dear sir,
    kindly tell if it will be better to shift investment from diamond to gold ? After so much distruction in Japan,American economy still bad ,Europe is allso not so good, what do you think ?

    Anupama, New  Delhi, India 26-04-2011

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 26, 2011

    Also note to format your message properly. Do not try to post the message from your mobile phone which conveys the message in small letters without capitalization. I do not have time to reformat your message. Either you improve yourself or face the instant deletion of the message.                 

  29. General – USD/ EURO

    USD is losing favour amongst long term lovers of this currency i. e. common people living in Asian Countries.

    I was in Indonesia on this weekend on a Holiday trip. I noted a strange thing this time around as this was my 2nd visit to that country (last trip was in Sept 2010). The conversion rates for the USD was very unfavourable with all the money changers specially in small town. One Money Changer even asked me if I have any Euros then I can get better rates. Out of the 3 -4 money changers only one was accepting USD.

    Then after a small chat I learned that with the Money changers USD is not a favoured currency since Jan 2011. In last 3-4 months they are looking more to change Euros than the USD

    I remembered that My Guru’s (Kalidas Sir) word is coming true. USD is going down for now.

    As it is said “When the Ship sinks its the mouse that first runs for cover “.
    So it is the Small “Money changers” for now who are saying no to USD. The Govt. will also come to accept this openly maybe sometime in near future.  

    Skyrocks, Singapore 


    Kalidas ji,

    Thank you for the insight into the future of Yen and clarifications to Mehr on 30th March 2011.
    I have decided to move to India for good from Japan. I will have around 2M JPY in cash by the time I return back to India. I understand from your prediction that Yen may go to 70 levels soon. Not sure if INR also appreciates in proportion. I would like your suggestion on whether it is a good idea to keep the money in Japan for a while before transferring to India to enjoy the benefits of a strong yen

    PS: By mistake I posted in March section. Please delete that. Apologies for the inconvenience.
    KeeYes, Tokyo, Japan

  31. Dear sir, shall i buy gold at 21800 to 22000 range silver at 67000 to 68000 range or wait for some more time.
    Ramesh Roy
    kolkata india

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 26, 2011
    Gold is okay to buy even upto 23,000 or US$ 1535 equivalent.
    Silver may be bought when it is US$ 42.85/43.35 equivalent in Indian rupees. Not now. Right now, I would sell in a rally upto 40% of my holding (70% a few days ago when it reached over $49.80)

  32. India, Buying from KITCO, Gold & Palladium
    Dear Sir,
    Like Mr. Nandakumar, I had too visited Kitco on Saturday, 23-APR-2011 and wanted to buy from Pool Account. I booked 1 oz Gold and 2 oz Palladium (3075 USD). They said to book you need to enter credit card info and I entered it. Now they have booked this. I replied to them for payment and they accept only Wire Transfer in USD. Am unaware how to do this transaction. How should I pay to Kitco?? If I dont buy from them now they will charge me the difference of present market price on my credit card, which is around 100 USD. I want to buy these and hold it for 1 year. Can someone guide me how I pay them 3075 USD (+25 Intermediatary Bank Charges) and later when I sell those metals how will I receive money?? No clear information is visible on their site. Should I contact HDFC BANK to do this transaction.
    Am also worried that my 1.5 lacs of INR should not go missing.
    FAQs: https://online.kitco.com/help/faq_bullion_pool.html
    Asha Sharma, Udaipur, Rajasthan, INDIA, 26-APR-11, 11:09 AM IST

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 26, 2011
    Why did you buy when you have not opened the account and were not familiar with payment system?

    When you have provided them Credit Card info, why don’t they accept the payment through credit card. Talk to them. If it is still not possible, then ask HDFC to wire the money to them (by TT) as per their instructions.

    You were not wise to buy the investment product in haste without knowing the ramifications. If your bank HDFC refuses to send the remittance to Kitco, then send me email to anil@selarka.com marking the subject : URGENT

    Nothing is running away. Unless and until the account is properly set up, you should not handle any trade, and even if you want to initiate any trade, do it for very small amount, say one ounce of gold or one ounce of palladium. If that is successfully done, then only handle larger amount.

    If KITCO refuses to accept the payment through credit card, ask them to treat the transaction as cancelled and inform HDFC not to honour any debit to your credit card account. (If HDFC is the card issuer). If they still honor the debit in spite of your specific instructions not to pay, do not pay HDFC bank. You can deny any debit to your account upto one month.

  33. Palladium-Purchasing from KITCO.COM
    Dear Sir,
    In a reply to SRNandu (23rd Apr.) on how to buy Palladium in India, you’ve mentioned that from MMTC or KITCO.com one can buy Palladium.
    When I visited, KITCO.COM and tried to buy Palladium from Pool, I found price difference is 26$ (Customer Selling 752$ and Customer Buying 778$). And there was one more rate showing Current Rate 768$. (All the rates I’ve mentioned here is the rate shown at KITCO.COM while I’m writing this query)
    I’ve following queries
    1. Can you please tell me if the difference in buying and selling (Margin) is nominal (26$)?
    2.If I’ve to buy using Indian Credit Card, Credit Card companies put currency conversion charges (INR ~2 – 0.05$)
    3. If I buy less than 2500$ of total amount, KITCO.COM additional charges of 14.99$  as administrative charges
    So, to get no loss no profit situation an Oz of Palladium has to increase a minimum of 41.04$ (26$+0.05$+14.99$).  Can you tell if my above understandings correct? If not, please let me know how to get Palladium at best possible rate.
    Best regards,
    NandakuamrAS-Bangalore-26/04/11 01:09 AM IST

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 25, 2011
    This is cheapest rate you can get. If the price is $768, and their sale price is $778, the difference is just $10 or about 1.25% which is the lowest. They do not charge commission separately and as such their price is NET to you. When some one sells them, they deduct 1.25% or more to arrive at the price of US$ 752 or difference of $16 or about 2%. The usual spread between two rates are always 3% to 5%. When the market price is very volatile, the Gold dealers are careful while buying from the sellers or when the sellers abound. It is the normal practice in OTC trade or Over the Counter trade where the prices include the broker’s commission. In Stock Exchange related trades, the exchange follows the “Auction system” where the buyers and seller gather together at one place (not so in OTC). In auction system, the lowest offer and higherst bidders get the preference. If you see any real time trades in any stock there are 4 bids and 4 offers as seen where the highest bid gets top preference and lowest offer get the best chance to sell the stock.

    In stock exchange only one price prevails and the broker adds/deducts his commission and other stock exchange charges. Depending on the relationship with the broker, the commission rates may vary anywhere from 0.05% to 1% depending on whether it is delivery based trade or non delivery based.

    For example, when you want to buy SONY TV and go to the market. Each dealer has different price – one may quote Rs 32,000 and other 31500 or 33,000 depending on his cost. The distributor prices may be higher and cost of direct import from Japan will be lower because the distributor is eliminated.

    Even banks quote you two rates – buying and selling rate, and each bank may quote you different rates because currency market is also an OTC market where the prices are net to the buyer or seller.

    If you think that Kitco should sell you the Palladium at $768 and not more because it is buying from the market at $752, you are terribly wrong. May be Kitco bought the Palladium at $860 (Year high) and the metal fell to $700. Even if the Kitco buys at $752, there is no guarantee that it will be able to sell at $778 because there may not buyer in the market at that price. It may remain as a quote. The dealer always takes risk while making market – some time he makes money, some time he loses. If he continuously lose money, he will be bankrupted in no time.

    Whether credit card companies charge you Rs 20 or more or less, it is not the business of Kitco to look into. They are concerned with the payment. You may send TT or Wire Transfer where the cost is minimum. You still have to buy dollar from the bank who may quote you higher by 0.5% as his built in fees.

    Ask Kitco whether they have office in India (they have in Hong Kong). If so, then Kitco may accept the payment in rupees but the rupee price will be arrived at by reference to banks buying rate for US$.

  34. Received -Ebook “HK$-Is US$ Peg at Breaking Point? 30% gain 2 years”
    As you rightly mentioned, the email with link to download the ebook was filed in SPAM folder. I’ve registered your email as Non-SPAM.
    Best regards,
    NandakumarAS-Bangalore-26/04/11 00.45 AM IST

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 25, 2011

  35. US, Gold, Golden Tipping Point

    Dear Sir,

    It looks like every one, including Investment companies in US has been demanding physical delivery of Gold. Please review the article at the following link:


    To summerize, the University of Texas Investment Management Co., the second largest US acedemic endowment, took delivery of almost US$ 1 billion in Gold and is storing bars in New York vault.

    Hitesh, Mumbai, INDIA, 25-April-2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 25, 2011
    It is old news already commented in CMCA column earlier. Nothing new.

  36. INDIA, Equity, JSW Energy & NHPC.
    Dear Sir,
    kindly advice on my query posted on 23rd. April as below, 

    I am holding JSW Energy NSE: JSWENERGY  4,000  Purchase Price @ 112 , CMP 77  &NHPC  15,000  @ 32 , CMP 25 ,  

    ADVICE HOLD / ADD( at current Price)  / SELL & switch to other stocks , pl. give your stock recommendation.


    Rashesh , Mumbai.  India.

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 25, 2011
    I never advised anyone to buy into Power utility and Infrastructure shares. I therefore never followed them. The above stocks are in power sector and I need to have thorough study of that sector, and also stocks historical performance. Your two line query can not be replied even in 20 pages for full review. If I am in constant touch with any stock, I can give instant reply.

    You may have to wait for a while, at least 7 days. At the moment, the news are negative for power sector because of shortage of Coal, Diesel and Gas which are all showing high prices day by day. Due to controlled price of energy generation, these utilities can not pass on costs to the consumers without government permission with the result they become heavy losers.

    I avoided this sector for long and also voiced this opinion number of times in last 2 years. Looks like you are new to the blog.

    Always understand one thing. Wherever there are price controls, only the company officials, directors, promoters make money because they sell their products in black market which never come to the company’s coffers

  37. US Banking-Silver-JPM Short position

    Dear Sir,

    I had read a comment before that beyond 36$ an ounce for silver, JPM would be in serious trouble to the extent of bankrupcy. Silver is touching 50$ an ounce now.  Is JPM in serious trouble now and its failure will surely have ripple effect on entire banking system which might triger the next collapse of equity markets.  Are we moving towards this anytime soon?

    Best regards,

  38. Non Receipt-Ebook “HK$-Is US$ Peg at Breaking Point? 30% gain 2 years”

    Dear Sir,

    I’ve made the payment for the e-Book “HK$-Is US$ Peg at Breaking Point? 30% gain 2 years” on Saturday(23rd Apr.). I’m yet to receive the e-book. I’ve also forwarded the payment details to readers.kalidas@gmail.com.

    Can you please look into this and let me know the status?

    Best regards,

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 25, 2011
    It was sent on same day within few hours. Please check your “spam mail” in case your email program has filed it over there.

    I have sent you same email again today. Please check your email box. The email is from my personal name.

  39. Macro View


    Here is the link that China is to cut down on its USD holdings –


    Here its also written on the Japanese Pension Fund about to begin dumping. The USD index has also stayed below 75 for some days now. Amid all these, the rise in Gold and Silver continues. Kindly give us your views on the macro picture regarding the future movements of USD and its effects worldwide.

    Best Regards

    Hem, Mumbai

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 25, 2011
    If China wants to sell US$ 2 trillions of dollar for some other currency (obviously or gold or silver or some other assets), who will buy from them when the dollar is falling (except our stupid RBI)?

    You read only part statement from China. It said that it will diversify into mineral or resources assets, that is, it will buy mines of metals (Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Steel, oil, gas or diesel or even atomic energy)

    When you have Rs 10 crores, you have option what to buy where your money could be utilized for maximum value. You may buy home, stocks, bonds or simply lose all in playing in casino, horse racing, matka or even derivatives. It is your money and you do what you want to do.

    Macro picture is always given under CMCA and Stock Observatory every day. Looks like you are new to this bog.

  40. Global – Commodity – Silver – Fantastic Analysis 


    Kudos to you for the most fantabulous analysis on Silver. As predicted by you Silver is flying by 7 % at this moment.

    Vyas, Bangalore, India, 11.35 am

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 25, 2011

  41. Sub: Swapping Silver to IOC
    Dear Anil Sir,
    Is it right time to swap some Silver to IOC?
    Average Cost for IOC 700@ Rs. 375     CMP is Rs 330
    Average Cost of Silver (Physical) 7 Kgs @ Rs 30,000  CMP is Rs. 72,000
    Parag, Surat, India 25th April, 2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 25, 2011
    It is not the question of buying IOC – it is the question of selling Silver in a rally and redeploying the funds into IOC. The price difference in your IOC is not that great to warrant averaging. However, use part proceeds of silver to IOC. Also sell the Silver slowly in part by part if you already own the silver.

    Often when the investors miss the rally, they find difficult to sell the item in rebound because they have already seen the high level before. They become indecisive and lose more profits. I would certainly buy another 300 shares of IOC which is equivalent to 1.2 kgs of Silver.

    Silver rosé by almost Rs 4000 in single day, partly due to weakness of rupee by 0.75% (Rs 575 rise due to weaker rupee). Many years ago, I used to buy the same Silver at Rs 7200, 7800 and the highest I paid in India was Rs 10.800 with average cost around Rs 8400. With a rise of Rs 4000 in a single day, it was almost 50% rise on my original cost. This is what is called “Concept buying”. A day will come when IOC too will rise by Rs 150 to 200 in one day when the stock is trading at above Rs 2500. It may appear to be 6% at that time on then market price, but on your original cost, it will be a 50% gain.

  42. I am from Malaysia where can I buy some Palladium ETF. Please advise

  43. Dear Sir

    Thank you for your insight and expert opinion. We value it very much.

    Sir- when are you expecting any steep correction in equity markets to come?

    Also when the correction comes the dollar will get stronger and all commoidities including precious metals will correct? Is it not?

    I am having 30 lakh rupees cash. What would you advise if my time horizon is long?


    Kalidas Says … Sunday, April 24, 2011
    Not any time soon. Let the dollar collapse and interest rates to rise for collapse to begin. Watch dollar index everyday on http://www.ino.com.

  44. GOLD and SILVER,
    Respected Sir,
    Congratulations ! Target predicted by you is achieved! Thank U.
    Sanjay,Chennai,INDIA, 24 APRIL 2011.

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, April 24, 2011

    Respected sir,
    Sir,what is your next target for silver? silver trading in physical market around 73000 in ahmedabad.do you see a price above 80000rs in the next week or so/
    Mihir Shah

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 25, 2011
    Do not ask me question every day. Stock Observatory contains my daily remarks. Watch the price and act on daily basis. I have already given you the sell program, and there is no change.

  46. GOLD and SILVER Reg ; good buy till  $1535.
    With your strong view about buying gold till Rs 23000, I would rather like to know why gold will not correct with silver this time. Any technical reason to learn, Do guide,Thank u,
    Sanjay,Chennai,INDIA,APRIL 24,2011.

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, April 24, 2011
    Gold is a big brother to little Silver sister. Gold is money, Silver is diluted money. Read my article “Gold $6400 Silver $80” published about 1 1/2 years ago. You can download copy from sidebar under PDF files

  47. Dear Sir,
    Your reply to Prasad Velpula is magnificent. And its our pleasure to get to read your blog. I really liked your answer. It would have answered many people queries.


    Kalidas Says … Sunday, April 24, 2011

  48. India, ETF, Gold, Reg: Message from NSE

    Dear Sir,

    This is more for information. Recently I have been getting several SMS from NSE (it says TD-NSE). The message says that the smartest way to buy gold is with GOLD ETF (no need to worry about theft/locker charges) and gives the following URL: http://www.nsegold.com. It says it is issued in investors interest. But I am surprised they don’t even alert against any of the disadvantages. Anyway, I am going with the physical gold for my daughter. When we have a locker for wife’s gold, storing another 300 grams in the same locker is not an issue at all.

    Rahul, Chennai, INDIA, 24-Apr-2011

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, April 24, 2011
    Almost all stock exchanges describe only virtues because they want to ride the rally. nsegold could be better alternative to gold in India if it is issued by National Stock Exchange. Still, I prefer physical and as you rightly said it does not take much space in locker. Further, if one buy Gold ETF he will be tempted to trade and get out too cheaply. In physical hold, such disadvantage disappears. Everyone has his own preferences.

  49. Dear Sir,

    Request your views on the recent article by Eric Sprott – titled Follow the Money in which he as discussed the supply demand fundamental of Silver. Few interesting facts from his article at  http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-expect-gold-silver-ratio-hit-single-digits
    are given below:
    1) In fact, for most of the past millennium, one ounce of gold would have been convertible to somewhere between 10 and 16 ounces of silver – an amount roughly in line with the relative occurrence of each mineral within the earth’s crust.
    2) The US Mint is now selling roughly equal amounts of silver and gold in dollars so far this year. The same case is with goldmoney and sprott Physical Silver Trust. I.e. dollar for dollar, investors are allocating as much if not more money to silver than to gold.
    3)  World Mines supply of silver last year was 736 million ounces and 215 million ounces came as scrap totaling at 951 million ounces. For gold the figures are 85 (mines) + 53 (scrap recycle) i.e. 138 million ounces i.e. 9 to 1 ratio of silver to gold. 
    4) Interestingly the US Geological survey puts the in situ reserves for silver at about 16.4 billion ounces for silver and 1.6 billion ounces for gold i.e. a 10:1 silver to gold ratio.5)  Silver industrial (industrial, photography, silverware) usage last year was about 610 million ounces i.e. 64% of total annual silver supply. 
    6) For gold the industrial supply only account for 10%.
    7) If we convert remaining available ounces for investments then $ figures for physical silver  (@45$/ounce) amounts 15 Billion USD for silver and 186 Billion dollar for Gold means a ratio of 1 / 12.5  in favor of gold. This means that in terms of primary supply, silver only has 8% of the capacity for investment that gold does despite having equal if not more dollars flowing into it.
    8) Recent estimates put the current available silver and gold inventories are 1.2 billion ounces for silver to 2.2 billion ounces for gold (less for silver since most of available inventories are lost to industrial production). At today’s prices in $ terms again this inventory means 1/63 ratio in favor of gold. 

    So in backdrop of all these facts or observation how could the rally stop at silver to gold ratio of about 31/1. This has a potential atleast reach its fundamental availability in earth crust of 10/1 espically when these metals are again taking pseudo monetary roles.

    Please provide your comments on this analysis.
    Vivek, Gurgaon, India, 24/4/2011

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, April 24, 2011
    I have commented before that the price of US$ 50.35 in 1980 was historical event when the Hunt Brothers cornered the Silver and then collapsed. At that time, United States with billions of ounces of silver was major seller all the time that encouraged banks like JP Morgan and HSBC to go short at extra ordinary length. We can not use one time special price as standard.

    Silver can not be compared with the gold. Silver is reactive metal whereas Gold is not. Keep a silver coin in open air, it will darken due to oxidation process (similar to copper) whereas Gold remain in same state as before. If you use the standard average price of silver, it will not be more than $18 and its highest multiple would have been 40 or 41, not more.

    Further, Silver is used as jewellery in rural household, that many westerners are not aware. India consumes over 4000 tons of silver per year. Even MMTC who imports 800 tons of Silver plans to import 400 tons more (to make it 1200 tons) this year. Gold is eternal primary money, Silver is diluted version of gold money. This is not the subject of arithmetic. In my personal opinion, the Silver might get fully priced soon (if USD does not collapse) and this is why I am more of a small seller (trading sell only). I would certainly lighten up when silver rises to US$ 80/Oz as per my original article 18 months back – Gold$6400 Silver $80 – why would they be at.

  50. Sir

    What is your long term target for palladium?

    Abu Dhabi

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 23, 2011
    Read this section regularly. I have already mentioned it at $2100 (Low end) to $2800 (High end) within 18 months to 2 years.

  51. India, Metals, Reg:Palladium & 401K

    Hello Kalidasji,

    I am currently living in US and planning to relocate back to India on 6-8 weekd time (already working on couple of job offers there). 

    I am planning to cash out my 401K savings when I resign my job here and I am expecting about $40K after taxes and penalties.

    Couple of questions:

    1. Is palladium a good buy, considering my relocation and dollar weakness in coming years?

    2. Can you please suggest a good way to invest this money? (These are the only cash saving I have)?

    Dallas (TX) – USA

    PS: I am married and have 18months old son.

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 23, 2011
    My answer is Yes & No due to following:

    1. It is easy to buy Palladium in USA. Either you can buy physically from companies like APMEX who will deliver to your US Address by insured courier. I have used them before and consider a good resource.

      The difficulty you may have is in selling since you are going back to India. The bars supplied by APMEX are of 0.999 purity and marked accordingly. Retain your invoice also. In India, the palladium is not easily saleab le in smaller cities. Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai and New Delhi is okay. MMTC also buys but in large sizes 1 Kg or 32 ounces.

      If you have account with KITCO.com then you can buy palladium which will be credited to your account. They also allocate the metal from common pool so your account is backed up physical assets. When you want to sell, you place order to sell and then they will uplift the delivery from your account and credit the amount in US$. You can ask them to wire the amount wherever you want.

      I am currently owning lot of palladium bought from APMEX when the metal was just around 192 (my cost was 210). It is possible that the sale price may be higher than bid price (called spread) by about 3% to 5% which is normal

    2. Check with them and be guided accordingly.

    3. Otherwise just buy GOLD or SILVER BAR from them, in the denomination of 10 gms or One ounce (31.10 grams) for gold and Silver in 10 ounce bars. Declare them at the Airport on arrival and pay 2% duty as required. So when you want to sell against invoice, you have proof that you imported the metal from overseas. There are no hassles. You pay duty on at SBI counters at the Airport
    4. I suggest buying Gold, Silver and Palladium in the ratio of 1:1:1 in terms of $, that is, invest US$3000 each of them. You will get 2 ounce of Gold (62 grams or nearly 6 tola), 60 ounce of Silver (1.89 kilo and $4,000 for Palladium (5 ounce or about 155 grams). Total amount is US$ 10,000
    5. Since one must always have some cash on hand, and interest rates in India being quite high, I suggest you reserve $20,000 towards Fixed Deposit for 7 years or so. Make it cumulative if you do not need interest amount. Place the deposit in normal FD account (not NRE) to get maximum interest. US$ 20,000 = Rs Rs 880,000. You may get Rs 16,97,900.69 as Cumulative FD amount @ 9.5% interest rate which is compounded by the banks quarterly as per current rules.
    6. Now you have US$ 10,000 left. Convert immediately in Indian Rupee, you will get Rs 440,000 in Savings account after conversion. Employ these funds as under:
      1. Buy IOC 400@CMP which may cost you Rs 124,000 or about
      2. Buy ONGC 300@Rs 290 or about – you invest Rs 87,000
      3. Buy Ashok Leyland 1000 @ Rs 55 (Rs 55,000)
      4. Buy Ruchi Infra 2000 shrs @26 (Rs 52,000)
      5. Buy SAIL 300 @ 189 or about (Rs 57,000)
      6. Buy IFCI 600 @55 (Rs 33,000)
      7 Retain the balance in Savings account for emergency need
      8. Open RD for Rs 1000 per month for 15 years which may carry interest rate of 8% or about. This is for your son. When he reaches the age of college going, you will have Rs 3,46,716.68 or about.
    7. I presume you may be about 28~35 years old. Since your son is only 18M old, the insurance premium will be very low (check with LIC). In that case, take out Rs 5 lakhs LIC Anticipatory Endowment LIC Policy for 25 years, repayable to you after 10,15 and 20 years and final instalement on 25 years. You may have to pay Rs 20,000 every year or Rs 1500 per month or Rs 4500 per quarter. This is suggested because there is no investment deposit for 25 years long span. Do not link with stocks market or otherwise. Just simple life policy. When he is college going, you may have enough resources for his higher education and also for his marriage.
    8. Also note to have two more children at least. Reserve some amount for them when they arrive.

      Do not believe in family planning until you have 3 or 4 children. Space them every two years. It is like having diversified portfolio of children – if one fails, other will be useful.

  52. Dear Sir, Thank You for suggestion,  Yes I am New to this blog.
    Ramesh Roy
    Kolkata India

  53. IPO: Muthoot Finance
    Dear Sir
    I have applied for Muthoot Finance IPO. Is my understanding correct that Muthoot Finance will move up as Gold Prices go up (even if market goes in opposite direction)? Does that make Muthoot Finance a good investment decision or should it be sold for listing gains?
    Ramandeep Singh
    Amritsar (Punjab)-India

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 22, 2011
    Listing gain.

    While it is involved in Gold related financing, I do not know how it helps them in their business. However, the sentiments will be in their favor, reality may be different.

    Judging by the number of leading investors in its fold, it looks like the stock may do well, nevertheless, I would be a seller initially upto 70% of my IPO position, and retaining balance for follow up.

  54. Dear Sir Is this the right to time to invest in silver or gold or shall i wait for some more time.
    Ramesh roy
    Kolkata India

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 22, 2011
    Looks like you are new to this blog.

    Gold is still good to invest upto US$ 1535 equivalent. Silver may go higher but the downside risk is also increasing. In short term, I am a seller of silver in current rally. The chances are 7:3, that is, 7 for win and 3 for losses.

  55. INDIA, Equity, JSW Energy & NHPC. 

    Dear Sir, 

    I am holding JSW Energy NSE: JSWENERGY  4,000  Purchase Price @ 112 , CMP 77  &
    NHPC  15,000  @ 32 , CMP 25 ,  ADVICE HOLD / SELL / SWITCH. 

    Rashesh , Mumbai.  India.

  56. India, How to Buy Palladium in India?

    Dear Sir,

    Could you please advise us how to buy Palladium in India (Bangalore).  As per your suggestion, I want to invest in Palladium.  I have no idea how to buy this metal.  It would be really great if you can give me various options on how to buy this metal in Bangalore.

    Bangalore, India, 22-Apr-2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 22, 2011
    Contact any jewellers or Bullion Merchant Association in Bangalore. Call the secretary and find the information. MMTC India sells palladium bars but of very large size – 1 Kg (32 Ounce) which works out to US$ 24,000 or about. It may be easy to buy but difficult to sell.

    Better open an account with KITCO.com, one of the world’s largest precious metal dealers. You can buy from them on pool basis, that is, they buy for you and keep the palladium in a common pool. It does not matter. When you need physical delivery, they can give. Otherwise, it operates like DMAT account. Do not buy futures, buy only spot metal.

    MMTC address is as under, call them and find out.

    General Manager – MMTC Regional office (Mumbai)
    Tele : 0091-22-26572437
    Fax : 0091-22-26572541
    Email : mmtcmumbai[at]mmtclimited[dot]com

  57. Stocks to Sell / Hold / Buy
    Dear Sir
    Your stock observatory is very very interesting. Every morning I will be waiting for the same. You are giving all information even a layman can understand the way you are presenting.
    I have a query – My major investments (More than 90% of my total investment is 10 lakhs) are in Satyam, Quantum gold, IOC, HPCL, BPCL, Spice Jet, Ruchi infra, Ashtavinayaka, Zee news and DCB.
    Sir, You are advising us to sell our 90% portpolio before April end. But stock observatory your are advising to buy the above stocks for 3 months short period except HPCL, BPCL, ZEE News. You have already explained to other reader but it is not clear to me. I am really confused with the above stocks.
    Can I invest 1 lakh each for your 3 months target- DCB, Ashok Leyland, Spice jet, Shree Ashtavinayak. Please advise
    Thanking you
    Swastika Ray. Kolkata. India

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 22, 2011
    You have invested heavily out of total budget. We have advised only 40% to 50% of total investment budget.

    Anyway, does not matter. You are in all good stocks (except AshtaVinayak which is speculative). Wait until their final result is out. They should be better. Take no further action for the time being.

    Since you are already heavily invested, i would not invest any more. Wait for steep correction to buy. The stocks near the bottom of the price range like Spicejet may be bought

  58. Sub: India,MIS and Recurring Deposit Vs. SBI MAXGAIN a/c,Reg: Which is better?
    Sorry my question did not appear in full text. Repeating again …

    Does it make sense to invest portion of my saving(say 4.5 Lakhs) in Postal MIs scheme plus RD or Should keep on adding my surplus money (I get around Rs.50,000 per month after normal expense) in the MAXGAIN a/c. ?

    -Santosh, Bangalore, India.

  59. Sub: India, MIS and Recurring Deposit Vs. SBI MAXGAIN a/c, Reg: Which is better ?
    Dear Sir,
    I have a home loan of 25 Lakhs from SBI (with MAXGAIN option)  for 15 years with 8% interest/annum, I am paying 25000/- EMI. Just to explian, MAXGAIN account is an OverDraft/Current account, where one can park his surplus cash, so the interest will be calculated on the remaining ( Loan amount – parked cash). The parked money is fully liquid, one can whithdraw at anytime.
    I have parked around 15 Lakhs in the MAXGAIN a/c, so effectively I am paying interest for 10 Lakhs and the larger portion of my EMI is paid for repaying the principal component.
    Recently one of my friend working in Indian Post, suggested me to invest money in Monthly Income Scheme(MIS) and invest the interest in Recurring Deposit scheme which gives 8% interest plus 5% bonus after 6 years. For Example if I invest Rs.1,50,000/- MIS for 6 years, I shall get Rs.2,48,508/- after 6yrs. The following link explains it in more details.
    Does it make sense to invest portion of my saving(say 4.5 Lakhs) in Postal MIs scheme plus RD or Should keep on adding my surplus money (I get around Rs.50,000 per month after normal expense).
    I am thinking for MIS+RD for the upcoming education expense of my child now at 6 months old.
    -Santosh, Bangalore, India

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 22, 2011
    You may try MIS of Indian Post, but I normally stick to normal commercial banks where almost same benefit is offered. Check with Corporation Bank, SBI or other nationalized banks who offer almost 8% interest on RD for 7 years or more. I also hold some savings in postal department, but the offices are so dirty that I do not feel like going in. In banks, you will get personal attention, in Post Office you will not.

    When your child is so young, you do not need money at the end of 7 years. Some banks like Corporation Bank open RD for 10 years to 15 years. Open for 15 years, even if interest is slightly lower.

    Use one Calculator – Interest(ing) Calculator by S. Rathinagari (India). It is free download. Click this link http://www.softpedia.com/get/Others/Finances-Business/Interesting-Calculator.shtml

  60. Dear Sir,
    I have purchased 4000 shares of shree renuka sugar last december at Rs 105.00  but the present price is 75.25 . Sir i have been holding for long time for the rates will the rate come or shall i quite from this share.
    Ramesh Roy, Kolkata, 22nd April

    Respected Sir,
    Sir thank you very much i shall do as you said for selling the remainder.Sir, very sorry for breaking your rules.i shall be careful in future.Also am very thankful for your time
    Thank You
    Anish Rathod,
    New Delhi

  62. Sub: USA 401k Investment
    Respected Sir,
    I am a silent follower of your site, and really appreciate and thank you for all the tips you are providing to all the followers of your site.
    I carry very little knowledge regarding finance and investment, for person like me you are blessing in disguise.
    Following your site, I invested in all areas like Indian Property, Stocks, Gold, Silver.
    I stay in the US and contributes to my company’s 401k plan. I contribute 5% of my salary to this plan and my company matches up to 5%  my contribution.
    We are using Wells Fargo retirement funds management for 401k investment management (www.retirement.wellsfargo.com).
    Last year in the month of May, I heard some news that US market will go down again and I moved all my 401k funds to Money Market fund (Wells Fargo Stable Return Fund N4, where you hardly get any return on your investment).
    After this move, the US market and the other funds in this retirement plan are going higher and higher.
    The total investment currently in this funds are almost US$ 50,000.
    Can you please guide me when should I move back my funds into the market (other mutual funds) or do you suggest any other option like buying gold, silver, Indian stocks?
    I also can get loan up to US$ 25,000 from this 401k plan. The advantage is, because this is 401k loan, the interest which will be 4.25 % on this loan will be invested in my account only.
    Jatin, California, USA, 21st April 2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 22, 2011
    I am not too familiar how 401k operates and whether the owner has discretion to govern his investments. I am still new to United States and did not have much time to study this scheme.

    Better Buy Gold in USA, not in India, because firmer rupee in days to come will erode your gain in rupee terms.

    You may also buy Palladium in USA from APMEX for physical delivery. Visit their website (American Precious Metals Exchange). Buy only 0.999 bars only, not coins, in multiples of 1 ounce only. Buy all the way upto $810. Hold it for a year or two. You may treble your money.

    You may buy Silver in 10 OZ bars or even 100 Oz bars but it is better to buy 10 Oz bars. Avoid coins

    Buy in India the following stocks:
    IOC – about 1000 shares at CMP
    HPCL: about 300 shares at CMP
    MRPL: 5000 shares at CMP
    ONGC: 300 shares at CMP
    Essar Oil: 1000 shares at CMP
    Petronet: 800 shares at CMP
    GPCL: 1000 shares at CMP
    Ashok Leyland : 2000 shares at CMP
    Satyam: 1200 shares at CMP or Buy its ADRs in USA

    If you are new to the stock, you may buy above 40% (except IOC where you take full position) and when the deep correction comes for any reason, buy the rest at that time.

  63. Global, Metals, Platinum-Palladium See-saw
    Dear Sir,

    I came across the below link that might be useful to you and many readers seeking Platinum-Palladium information. You can ignore it if does not add any value.


    Girish, Mumbai, India, 22-Apr-11

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 21, 2011
    Thanks. It is informative but I see lot of hypes into it. Nevertheless it will be useful.

    dear sir,
    i bought 400 shares of ioc at avg price of 299.58 and 500 shares of spice jet avg price 41.00 what should be the target to exit from above stocks.
    ruchi infrastructure currently trading at 26.20 should i wait for a fall in price or invest now for a long term perspective
    rahul chakradharpur jharkhand
    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 21, 2011
    No need to do anything. Your enty was well timed. For Ruchi, wait for correction. First entry price 23.50 which may be achieved in any correction of 2 to 3 days. However, if you do not want to wait, then buy about 1500 shares to start with at CMP and add 500 shares each time there is 15% correction from last level.

  65. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/rights-issues/goldman-sachs-citigroup-temasek-rush-for-muthoot-finance-ipo/articleshow/8053099.cms
    Dear Sir
    Some time back,Some one in your blog mentioned that Muthoot Finance and Mannapuram Finances were indirectly supported by JPMC/GoldMan to accumulate the GOLD from India. I think today’s news(above link) supports that.

    I have not seen any companies making ways in to every other town of South india in the span of just couple of years as these two companies have done. YOu go to any towns in south india you see bill boards of these companies. ( I am not sure of North India as I have not visited places in the last couple of years)
    I feel unless and untill money flows from big banks like JPMC it is just impossible to establish so fast.
    HOpe Indian GOVT/RBI checks this before the second loot of GOLD from India after the British. This time it is Americans.
    Who else should forgive FED for its mistake if not Mother India? :-)) And life Goes on in india as if nothing is happening ……

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 21, 2011
    India has always been on “auto pilot” and will be so for another 10 years at least. It is difficult to change DNA in one generation.

    Respected Sir,
    Sir following your advise i have sold 50% of my holdings in silver today @ 68000rs.I wanted your advise on when to sell the remainder? Sir i will need th money in june,so am worried whether greed for more returns might eat away the profit already achieved,at the same time i dont want to miss out on better price in this rally,so am in a fix.Sir price is at 46.5$ right now,seeing the momentum do you think it will cross 50$ mark soon and set a new nominal high? please guide further direction.
    thank you and regards,
    anish rathod

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 21, 2011
    Append your signature with city, country and date. I do not like defaulters. I spend more time on this blog than you do, so respect me by following rules.

    You did the right thing in selling 50%. The Silver is incredibly strong. I would sell if there is sudden spark rally where the prices may rise by 12% to 15% in single day – it is coming but when I have no idea. $50 will be breached next week.

    Sell 25% in further Rs 3000 rise (which you will easily get on Friday or Saturday in India where the markets remain open (physical). Go on feeding @ 10%, 5% and final 5% to complete the sale. In short, you should never exceed 5 levels of selling. I normally use 3 stages, but the momentum being so strong, I would use two more stages. Do not be rigid in selling prices. if you are not getting desired higher price, in spite of waiting for about 1 hour, simply throw away at the bid price. Do not even blink your eye.

    Silver High of $50.35 is not comparable with the present high. In 1980, the Hunt Brothers cornered the silver most where as currently the buyers are many and widespread. Current rally has more wider base than even before, and as result it is more sustainable rally.

    Yes, even today we have a hoarders like Silver ETF who are buying from the market. They are replacing Hunt Brothers. I never like the idea of ETF. In normal course, when the people at large buy gold or silver, it is used up in making jewellery, ornaments etc. That is, the gold and metal is put to consumer use.

    Whereas when the Central Bank and ETF buy the Gold or Silver, those metals go from one warehouse (central bank) to another warehouse (ETF). The metals do nothing. They simply sit there without being put into domestic or commercial use. They will finally collapse like Hunt Brothers, because when they want to sell, there will be no buyers.

  67. Subject : AUD
    Dear Sir,
    As per your initial prediction and recommendation of AUD against USD, it’s very close to your initial target of 1.08. Recently you have even given a revised target of 1.20. Would like to know if you would suggest to sell part at the present range around 1.07-1.075 and see if any buyback opportunities arise during next week or around end of the month.
    I have purchased 1 lot around 0.86 and another around 0.98. Would you suggest to keep AUD as it is and deploy other funds to buy Japanese Yen.
    Kindly advise
    Naren, Guangzhou, China 21.04.2011

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 21, 2011
    The dollar did drop below 74 for a while, but it was jacked up later to stay above 74, confirming my almost two week advice to watch the 74 level closely. Any fall below 73.50 might engineer currency crisis, this time, dollar at receiving end. However, lower level has to be maintained for at least 2 days, preferably in beginning of the week, not later.

    Do not take chances, you already have other lot. Do not keep 108 as round figure target. Either sell it at 107.85 or 108.35

    Keep the balance for better ride. If the level of 74 is broken decisively, that is, dollar remaining below 73.50 for at least two days, there might be sudden rise when you can sell it then and there, without asking me any question.

    Retain all the balance in HK$ as suggested by me in my new report now on sale. Stay liquid thereafter.

  68. Sir you have missed my query of 19 Apr please take a look

    Thanks& Regards

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 20, 2011

  69. Sub : Indian stocks

    Dear Sir,

    I have been a silent follower of your blog.  Thank you very much for your wonderful Service. 
    I am holding 25 OZ of Gold at average price of 1288 USD and 720 OZ of Silver at average price 27 USD. I have around 60K USD in my savings. I am very new to stock market  and like to enter into Indian/US stock market. Could you please guide me on what are the stocks I can get into and enter , exit levels? 

    Eswar, Washington DC, USA.

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 20, 2011
    You are in right metal for the moment. You may deploy $20,000 in the following:
    Gold: ADD $10,000 in Gold even at current market price
    Silver: Enjoy the ride. SELL about 120 Oz when Silver at $48.35 and 100 Oz >53.50
    Palladium: upto $8,000 in Palladium which is trading at about $760/Oz. Target low $2100, High $2800 Time 18M
    Buy following ADRs in USA
    Satyam 2000 ADR at Current Market Price
    MTNL 2000 ADR at $2.16 or about Buy <2.50
    INTEL: Buy about 300 shares @ $20 or about $6000

    In India
    IOC (or Indian Oil Corporation) in India: US$ 8000 equivalent or about 1,000 shares

  70. Dear Sir ,
    May i suggest you to put a short article on insurances in how to invest series .
    Sachin ,Pune ,India .

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 20, 2011
    I can not. I know only about old ways of LIC Policy, I do not know new products. I stick to only old ways of investing in LIC which is beneficial to the investor and their family. I never go or play with Unit Linked Insurance Policy or policy linked to Mutual Funds. Such Policies are Injurious to Wealth same way tobacco advertisement reading “Smoking is Injurious to Health.”

  71. E-Book, Mystical Numbers.

    Dear Sir,

    Last year You told regarding releasing the E-book of Mystical numbers, which are useful in many ways in the life. Is there chance to get the book in this year.


    Rajmohan babu
    Hassi Messoud, Algeria

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 20, 2011
    Yes, I am in process of writing. My old computer which has all data is not functioning well, it automatically shuts off and on again without any notice. So I am transferring data from old hard disk to new one or back up drive here.

  72. INDIA ,Muthoot Finance ,Reg: Apply or not in IPO.
    Dear Sir,
    Kindly advise whether or not to apply in Muthoot Finance IPO?
    Best Regards
    Vatsal Bajpai, New Delhi ,India ,20-04-2011

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 20, 2011

  73. INDIA, Investment after Property Sell.
    (Sorry to post it again, as I forgot to append my signature. Sorry once gain for inconvenience caused.)
    Dear Guruji,
    I have finalized deal to sell my house in Talegaon (Pune district) for  Rs19 L which will materialize in 1st week of May.
    Out of this I have to pay 50% to my sister (she was my co-investor) and Rs. 9.5L will be with me. I think I will have to pay 20% tax.
    I am planning to invest amount to a Chaul Room at Girgaon (Old Mumbai) which will cost me around 14-16L. (I already has some FDs). I will get room rent (on 11 months live license basis) @ Rs 7-9K per month.
    The process of searching and buying may take 8-10 months as I live here in Bahrain (Middle East)
    For mean while I am planning for short term investment in following manner.
    1. Buy half Kg of silver (physical )at CMP in Bahrain.
    2. Buy 20gm of 24karate Gold at CMP.
    3. Rs. 3 Lakhs in FD in India.
    Currently I holdings in stocks (LT, Satyam, IOC, BPCL, IDFC and Dena Bank) worth of Rs2.5L for long term.
    Can you please suggest me some better way of investment ?

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 20, 2011
    Your tax liability depends on whether it is 100% Check deal sale. Further, 20% tax applies to Index cost, that is, your original cost is inflated as per government formula. You can have index cost chart from IT dept website. You have to count your tax liability two ways – Using Index cost where the tax liability works out to 20%, or just 10% if you do not count the Index Cost. Check it out with your Chartered Accountant.

    1. If you buy a Chaul room it will not be on ownership basis but “pugree basis” where you are left at the mercy of the land lord when you want to sell it. You will have to give away 30% or 33% to the landlord before he agrees to transfer the chawl to buyer’s name. Avoid it if you can.
    2. 20 grams of gold is okay even at current prices.
    3. Half Kg of silver is a very small amount. However, it is your convenience.
    4. You can keep FD in India for a period of 7 years. If you do not need the money keep it in cumulative deposit. Otherwise, take interest every quarter to your Savings account. File F15 with your bank so that they do not deduct tax at source (TDS), since your income level will be far below Tax Exempt limit.

  74. Generic-Market terminology identification

    Dear Sir,

    We keep hearing the term “short covering rally”.  How do we identify this?


    I do not know about Indian market. (It may be possible only on MCX)

    There are two terms:
    Open Interest (OI): It applies to Futures and options only known as OI

    When a person buys a future contract, someone sells. He takes opposite view of the buyer. He therefore opens up his obligations to pay the buyer on maturity of equivalent closing value on expiration. When he finds that the situation is going against him, he will try to buy back his sold obligation. When he buys back, it may arise two ways. – Either someone else opens a new contract the way he did or there being no seller he buys back by bidding up the price higher. So let us see:

    Say, Open Interest = 50,000 contracts (Original seller of obligations)
    ADD Daily Volume = 20,000 Contracts
    TOTAL OI – 70,000 contracts
    LESS contracts closed = 30,000 contracts
    Day End Open Interest = 40,000 contracts
    Reduction in OI = 10,000 contracts (Previous Day OI 50K – today OI = 40,000

    It means that 10,000 contracts were bought back from existing holders as there were not many coming forward to open new positions.

    So, in nutshell, look at closing day Open Interest and compare with previous day. Similarly, you ma compare the Open Interest in respective stocks which is always mentioned in Moneycontrol.com.

    It applies to stocks. I do not know about its system or practice in India, but I will inform you about such practice in USA and other advanced markets.

    When a person takes view that the Stock A is overpriced. He may want to sell it to buy back later when it corrects. if he does not have stock in hand, he will borrow from the lender of the stocks ( a Broker or Mutual Fund) and sell it in the market paying him the interest cost and margin to cover his obligations. In USA, there used to be a “uptick rule” under which a person can sell short only on uptick, that is, if the previous trade was down, you can not short sell, but if the previous trade was up, then one may sell short.

    In USA, one can keep the position short for almost 12 months. He has to close it at the end of 12 months by buying back the stock at whatever price ruling on expiry of 12 months. He can short it again for another 12 months on following day. In USA, daily figures are published for each stock known as SHORT INTEREST.

    For instance, stocks like Infosys, MTNL, Satyam can not be sold short in India because short selling is illegal in India. If you sell them on today without owning them, you have to deliver them on settlement day. If you can not settle on settlement day from your own inventory or borrowing from a friend, your obligations will be auctioned off, and your broker will buy back on fourth or fifth day as per exchange rule debiting your account with the cost of buy back. If there is profit, it is not given to you. If there is loss, you have to bear it.

    However, same MTNL, Infosys, TCS, Satyam can be sold short as ADR on NYSE and keep the position short for 12 months. If ADR come down, after you have shorted, you may buy back and pocket the difference. If the ADR goes against you and you feel that it will still go higher, you buy back and lose the money. In other words, in United States you as investor take both gains and losses. Your cost will be the lending cost as prescribed by the exchange or the lender.

    This is why Indian market is lousy and SEBI is unimaginative. If SEBI permits short selling on future exchange by letting investor to sell as open interest, why is it not willing to let the investors sell short legally? SEBI is still living in stone age.

  75. Sub: Silver sell call, a trade call ?
    Hi Kalidas,
    I have 9kgs of silver at 30,000 average. I read your call to start selling from 68,000.  Please clarify me, if its a trading call to buy back on corrections or to sell and book profits ? I do not mind waiting until it reaches your final target. To me, the bull run in gold/silver seems to have just begun. Everyone in india are talking of gold/silver as an investment option, mutual funds are coming with new funds with  the theme of gold, so these may fly even higher. I have been lucky to read you and started buying silver from 27,000.
    I hope you are enjoying your stay in the US and wish you all the health and happiness !
    Vijay Hegde
    Bangalore, India

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 20, 2011
    It is a trading call. My original target remain same. If USD index which has fallen today steeply to 74.41, lowest nearly in last 12 months due to Debt Extension controversy, it will plummet by at least 7% if it falls below 74, or say 73.50. In that case, Rupee will rise. Although Silver may rise in Dollar terms, in Rupee terms it may show less appreciation or even fall if the rise in silver prices are less than rupee appreciation.

    Take your pick. I never change my trusted strategy. It may go to 71000 or 73000, I do not know how the exchange rate will behave. Silver is today all time high at 45, close to my original sale level of 45.50. or better 45.35. May be it will overshoot to 47 or 47.50 but I have no idea what effect on rupee will be if dollar collapses. In all probability, Rupee will appreciate to 42.85 or even up to 41 level.depending on the intensity of the selling.

    Once there is agreement on Debt extension deal, dollar will bounce back strongly, and almost all commodities will fall steeply. They will rise again after some time when Bernanke’s QE policy is known. If he wants to continue with Quantitative easing for another 12 months, then again , all precious metals like Gold and Silver will rise majestically.

    It is up to you whether you want to sell in a strong rally or not.

  76. Global, Gold Silver Price , Reg: Your Target for Silver Price,

    Dear Sir,

    I would like to know that reason for your target for Sliver for $80. Gold has passed its previous all time high of $850 ( in late 70s) by 80% but silver has not yet crossed its all time high of $50 during the same time. At that time, the Gold Silver ratio was less than 20.

    Going by your target for gold price $6400 and a gold silver ratio of say, 50 , Silver should reach $120. 

    Do you expect silver to go much higher than $80?

    http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html  shows the gold silver ratio from 1344 – 2004. The ration reached 100 in 1990s but was around 20 in early 1980s.

    I thought Silver will reach much higher value than $80 but as you have replied to one question saying that Silver might not reach 1 lakh / kg, and to sell gold @ 54k  do you expect the exchange rate to correct when Gold silver appreciate to these values ?

    With Regards,
    Anshuman, Kolkata, India , 20th April

  77. Dear  Sir

    Thanks for the beautiful answer  to Rober Bhatia. I wish I were 27  and came in touch with kalidasa. :-))   I thank GOD for bringing me in touch with him though bit late.

    “It is better late than never”


    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 20, 2011
    You always have punch line in your message. I am enjoying it.

  78. Reg: TCS and IOC

    Dear Sir,

    This is further to my query on TCS and IOC for which I had not mentioned prices. My buying price for TCS was Rs. 850/share and CMP is Rs. 1200/share, while IOC you already answered my query.

    I would like to know should I sell TCS and buy later or keep holding it. My TCS holding is all floating profit and I am not losing anything in it as I have many bonuses in last few years and I have sold the additional shares and retained only profit shares which is 600 nos.

    Sarit Haria, Mumbai, India.

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 19, 2011
    No need to sell TCS which is a strong buy now.

  79. World: general question – question about insurance suggestion give to reader

    first of all I would like to congratulate the reader and you on a very informative post.

    I just have 1 question or suggestion.
    you can get term insurance of around 1,00,00,000 for 10 thousand rupees every year for 25 year policy. Wont it be intelligent to invest rest of 2,40,000 in mixture of PPF and Tax saver MFs( equity linked saving) to earn higher returns? at 10% annual returns for 25 years the money can grow over 4 folds even if person goes for monthly investment plan.
    compounded Interest or return for 2,40,000 Rs invested annually at 10% return rate can potentially give around 2,62,00,000 which is way more then LIC returns.

    this is how you can get 1, 00, 000 insurance and  2.5 crore after 25 years.

    Please correct me if I am wrong.

    Thanks, Ramesh, Ahmedabad, India

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 19, 2011
    You never play with your life and life’s savings with equity linked products. When I was in India, I was shown by Canara Bank much higher return in such products which were nothing but a hoax. These banks are getting fat commission from the policy issuer. When a person dies, his family should get the benefits but in equity linked policy if the stock market has corrected, entire policy amount is washed away.

    Do not try to earn 1% to 2% extra amount in such policies. Even in PPF, the interest rates are variable, not fixed. If your life’s savings is invested in MF and that MF loses money in sheer speculation, a person will not have his soul rested in heaven because he would regret that he did not leave behind enough security for his wife and children.

    In spite of women having made advances in India, a life without a husband in India is very insecure. Therefore, read it loud and clear – do not play with the death and leave family as living dead. Take a simple policy, the anticipatory one, without any terms attached. The concerned reader already had exposure to equity, so there was no need to enlarge it.

    Those who do not understand this simple principle of life, are destined to doom.

    I give you my own example. I took out LIC Anticipatory policy for 25 years for Rs 50,000 in 1976. I got the payment at the end of 10,15 and 20 years over Rs 30,000 plus.( I do not remember exact amount). Then when the policy matured in 2001, my Agent was constantly reminding my family in Mumbai to collect the maturity amount. We though it may be just Rs 20,000 or about, but lo, the maturity amount was in excess of Rs. 120,000 or about. Just imagine, how much other reader will make when his policy of Rs 40 lakhs and Rs 20 lakhs mature as against my own of paltry sum of Rs 50,000?

    No equity, No MF, no commodities, no indexes, no future, no options, no leverage etc when it comes to LIC Policy. No gambling – PERIOD

  80. Dear Sir
    This is just to seek some clarification from you. I understand that we should sell 90% of our stocks by end of April. However, as per stock observatory, we should retain certain stocks like Spicejet and Mahindra Satyam (subject to good results). Have I understood this correctly or should we sell 90% of portfolio irrespective of what stock observatory says.
    Ramandeep Singh
    Amritsar (Punjab)-India

    Kalidas ji,
    I understand from your recommendation to alight from stock market (up to 90% of investments) and take vacation for 4 months means selling every scrip in the portfolio whether red or green, OMC, Satyam or what not. Correct me if my understanding is wrong.
    KeeYes, Tokyo, Japan

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 19, 2011
    Balance 10% contains the OMC. We asked readers to wait for result of Satyam for final year and quarter that may be released soon. One may sell Satyam in rally and reduce the exposure somewhat, but not much. Stay within overall 10%

  82. Singapore, eBook Purchase – HK$-Is US$ Peg at Breaking Point?


    I had made the payment for eBook via Pay Pal. I have sent an email to you at readers.kalidas@gmail.com with the pay pal receipt number.

    Request you to kindly send the eBook to my mail id

    Bobby, Singapore

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 19, 2011
    eBook already sent. on same day. You would have received email from anil@selarka com with download instructions. Check your spam mail in case it was redirected to that mail box due to some anti-spam program.

    Another email also sent today from readers.kalidas@gmail.com with download instructions.

  83. World: general question.

    Sir, Only 1 question.

    What financial decisions Kalidas will make based on below criteria for longest period may be 25 to 30 years. 

    if Kalidas was 27 years old, married no kids, had 2000 US$ savings income every month for atlist next 3 years( I am on H1B valid for 3 years), 50,000 USD in cash in US account, 4 lakhs in Tatamotors, L&T and RIL, OMCs( 16 lakhs in total) flat in Noida for investment( 30 lakhs) and 100gm gold at 17,000 INR/10gm.

    Please do take this seriously as I am sure most of the readers of your blog belong to GenNext of India and most of them are in their early 30s or 40s.

    thanks, Robert Bhatia, NYC, USA

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 19, 2011
    First of all, I would Thank God for making me Rich at so young age of 27 years, getting me married, sending me to USA and send urgent request to God to give me at least 3 kids at the space of 3, 2 and 2 years, so that I would have a happy family of 5.

    (Kalidas was making only Rs 1500 per month (US$ 200 at that time) when 27 years old, never had bank balance, had two children (Boy and Girl) was occasionally short of Rs 100 at the end of the month, opened three Recurring Deposit of Rs 10 each per month for 12 months, so that he would have funds to celebrate the birthday of children with Rs 125 maturity amount, and using third RD maturity amount of Rs 125 to whitewash his apartment every year)

    Kalidas would do the following:

    1. Apply for “Green Card” and make United States as place of permanent residence. If my present employer does not sponsor me for green card, I would search for other employer within United States
      -Reason is when I have kids and when they grow to the age of college going, they would have to pay local tuition fees which would save US$ 25,000 per year per child at that time for a period of 4 years, saving US$ 300,000 indirectly)
    2. Send US$ 30,000 out of US$ 50,000 to India and retain them in local fixed deposit (not NRE) to earn about 9.5% interest. Balance US$ 20,000 will be retained in United States
    3. Take out Anticipatory LIC Policy in India having annual premium pay out of Rs 2.5 Lakhs (which will get me a policy of Rs 60 lakhs or more, for 25 years with anticipatory payment at the end of 10 years, 15 years and 20 years, leaving final payment at the end of Rs 25 years.

      The policy would be divided into two parts – Husband (larger amount, say Rs 40 lakhs) and Wife (Smaller amount, say Rs. 20 lakhs).

      No other policy of ULIP nature or from some private companies will be taken. You already have stock investment of good amount, so do not become too greedy.

      Apart from getting substantial payment at the end of 10,15 and 20 years, the final installment cash payment on maturity of 25 years will be 2.5 times insured amount or Rs 1 crores for husband and Rs 50 lakhs for wife depending on the interest rate cycle in India.

      Thus, substantial savings is assured at the end of policy period and also insuring life all the time for very large amount. The reason for larger portion of LIC policy for husband is that in case something happens to the husband, the wife will get much larger amount to help her cope with the later life. This is only to meet the contigency.

    4. I would let monthly savings of US$ 2000 per month to accumulate in USA and send it to India only twice a year (30%) retaining the balance in USA, not invested anywhere.
    5. As soon as my green card is received, I would venture into buying own home in USA
    6. As soon as Gold reaches Rs 54,000 per 10 grams in India, I would take a plain ticket, go to India and sell every gram of Gold and bring back money to USA by other means. If Rupee is made convertible by that time, it will be easy to transfer the money to US$ from India officially
    7. Buy Palladium about 10 Ounce @ US$ 735 to max US$ 1000 over a period of next 6 months. I will buy to the extent I could afford, without hurting my cash balances.
    8. I will also buy Silver periodically when the prices correct by 20% from recent all time high, upto 200 ounces maximum
    9. As soon as my children arrive, I would open Recurring Deposit accounts in India of Rs 5000 per month per child maturing at the end of 12 years (Maturity value Rs 12.5 lakhs @8.5%), 13 years (Maturity Value Rs 14.27 lakhs) and 15 years (Maturity Value Rs 18.21 lakhs). This will ensure enough funds for funding college education of my children when they grow up. By the end of above maturity, the exchange rate would be Rs 21, 18 and 12, so I would get US$ 60,000, US$ 100,000 and US$ 150,000 in equivalent US$

      That is, my monthly outgo will be Rs 15,000 per month

    10. Shall remain on look out for starting own software business in USA after getting Green Card
    11. Then again, I would thank God for getting me in touch with Kalidas
  84. Indian Markets. Future Outlook.
    Dear Anil ji,
    I was reading your Stock Observatory, and i was surprised to see you suggesting buying Puts for first time. Any particular reasonfor this. We understand that you were bearish abt the market outlook, but it seems that all of a sudden because of recent developments, you have become hell a lot bearish.
    Also, can you guide us with any option strategy which you think would be appropriate to reap good benefits out of this expected bearishness. I normally dont trade in stocks from short term perspective, but now planning to trade in options with a small amt (25k) which i’m ready to loose in all.
    I’m asking all this since you have started guiding us with short term trading opportunities, otherwise we understand that you have always guided us with long term vision. Please feel free to ignore this query on options in case you dont feel like answering.
    Harish. Gurgaon. India. 19.04.2011. 23.15PM.

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 19, 2011
    There is nothing surprising about buying some puts. I have long advocated that the Readers should lighten up on stocks by April and look back at the stocks only after 4 months, enjoying vacation in the meantime. I have already asked everyone to lighten up by 90% of stocks due to poor earnings expected and rise in inflation and interest rates. The real effect of new numbers will begin to have greater effect from May end onwards.

    Earlier, my view was based only on the basis of Indian market alone, because outside influence was diminishing or at least stable. Now, with debt extension limit gaining importance, and possible downgrade of US by S&P, the external effect will play greater rôle than before.

    I do not know about the future and option in India. Never studied them as they were for too short term. I focus on options only in USA where the period is very extended. Kindly therefore excuse me.

  85. Collapse in electronic trading

    Dear Sir,

    According to you, there will be collapse in electronic trading. It is better to hold physical gold/silver rather than ETF gold. When can we expect that to happen? What are the initial signs of that event? Will there be huge unusual discount in vale of ETF or Futures prices or there will be drastic decrease in the volume. It seems that we reaching that stage very fast. Since we are holding F&O position in MCX Gold/Silver, please suggest us possible early signs of this event so that we can exit our positions well in advance.

    Thanks and regards,

    Jagadish Bellary
    Gulbarga, Karnataka, India

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 19, 2011
    Such corrections are months away at the moment. Gold and Silver will only prosper, so unless you have shorted them, there is nothing to worry about for the time being. Please note that I never focus on MCX trading in futures or options. I do not have time to monitor such extremely short positions on minute to minute basis.

  86. Hello Sir,
    Today is the first day when i read about your blogs and i really inspired by your advices. I would like to thank you for writing. Could you please advice me on the following question.
    I will be getting some money in the next week,can you please guide me where should i invest either stocks(any particular stocks)/gold/silver, for a 6-8 months horizon which will give me good returns.
    please also give me entry and exit levels.
    Amol Tuesday, Apr 19, 2011 Pune India

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 19, 2011
    Follow our protocol while posting query. Read the entire section or article at the top first.

    Incomplete information. What amount you are talking about. Next time when you post, include all details as required to make your query intelligible for us to understand.

  87. Mahindra Satyam


    The stock goes up when market goes down; and goes down when market goes up. There was some bullishness in the stock because of the SEC settlement, but the momentum seems to have gone. If the stock price is any indication of what is going to come… then it seems the Q4 results will be ordinary and below expectations again.

    You have a target of Rs 103 by end of May. Its a bullish target. Do you see it happening still ?

    Also, I am sure almost every reader of yours is into Mahindra Satyam. More than they are into Silver. In which case, could you give a more periodic opinion on this stock ?

    19 April 2011, Singapore

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 18, 2011
    I do not change my opinion too often unless there are overriding circumstances or there is material change in the status of a company. I do not want to speculate about Q4 result because all past indications are better. I look at the Revenue growth first for such troubled companies because some provisioning may take a toll on profit which may be temporary feature.

    Also do not ask me what is my target on day to day basis. I have given my view and target and the reasons therefore in the past, so let those dates come and pass. We will see the facts then.

    Further, I do not know what my readers take position in any asset which may have been discussed in this public blog. I am not their broker nor do I make any profit or commission out of what they trade because they would be dealing with their own brokers whom I may not even know.

    I can not therefore give periodic reports too often. If the circumstances change, I will opine, otherwise old opinion will stand. Further, each reader has his own priorities and he may buy 100, 500 or 1000 shares of Mahendra Satyam. The stock has done well since we had suggested and what we said was the Q4 and final annual numbers to confirm or deny those expectations. It is a dynamic market place, and we go by public information. We can not anticipate nor any other person, whether there will be tax demand from IT Department or how the courts in India will react to those issues.

    I am not anyone’s professional adviser. My opinion is only my opinion, and the readers are expected to it to be vetted by second, third or fourth opinion, and consult their own professional adviser. There are hundreds of such opinions are floating around on Moneycontrol, MyIris, Equitymaster, CNBC, NDTV who are more seized of the saga behind each stage because their employees or anchors are conducting frequent interviews with senior management. I do not have luxury of such facility at my disposal.

    Do not therefore refer such questions to me. Read my opinion, discuss with others, obtain other experts opinion and take your well reasoned decision. I do not want to know from any reader whether they acted on my opinion, how much did they buy or sell and how much profit or loss they made. It is none of my business.

  88. India-Hindustan Dorr Oliver- Worth it?

    Sir i want to know your view on this stock Hindustan Dorr Oliver(509627) , I have always found this share a star performer , with the CMP of 84.70 is it worth a long term shot?

    Thanks & Regards

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 20, 2011
    Never followed this stock before. It is old Engineering company. It may do well due to high level of infrastructure projects.

  89. Sir

    With reference to IFCI i would like to ask you the short term target of IFCI in next 6 months.

    Possibility of IFCI Factors IPO in july 2011 as per company officials. In such a case do you think it can reach to atleast 60 Rs from it’s present price of near Rs 50 i.e. a gain of 20%.

    With regard to long term target while you said banking license will not add much value to company (with past example of IDBI) but sir dont you think that granting a banking license will bring lot of speculation into the stock price leading to a rise which can be used by us to get out?

    So sir what would be a realistic price for IFCI if it gets banking license?


    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 18, 2011
    Again and again you are asking this kind of questions. The issue related to banking license has been played out too far. it is like you are using same colgate paste on same old brush and keeping in mouth for far longer. You will finally puke

    Nothing wrong with IFCI. They also announced Dividend of Rs 1 per share. This confirms my 3 year old assessment that IFCI will return to dividend payment. In course of time, this may be increased to over Rs 3 per share.

    Read my comments to other boarders. I would not sell IFCI but will begin to buy. It is one of the cheapest shares in finance sectors. I never consider banking license as price moving factor. There are so many banks trading cheaper than IFCI having banking license – what is happening there? Such talks are for speculators, not investors.

    Respected sir
    today the outlook of USA was cut to negative by S&P rating agency.However dollar index is up almost 1%.please can u explain this?
    Also what do you think will be the impact of this move of S&P on precious metal commodities?
    Mansukh Patel
    New Jersey.
    19 April.

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 18, 2011
    Dyeing flames shine better.

    USD Index is a paper game. The authorities are trying to keep it higher so that other prices are contained. Dollar up only in paper trade

  91. Sir,

    S&P puts ‘Negative’ Outlook on U.S & 200+ points down in DOW.


    Appreciate your valuable outlook.

    Jana, Bangalore, 04/18/2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 18, 2011
    Yes, but they will not kill their own country. They rate USA , the heavily indebted nation at AAA and They rate China who has $3 trillion FOREX reserve, 60% in US$ and America’s biggest lender, as only A, almost 5 notches below the top grade (AAA, AA+, AA, A+, A, A-)

    Once the budget is passed, they will reverse the stance. Both S&P and Moody are poor in standard and moody in their assessments.

    No country having contracted debt in its own currency can default because it can print the money via deficit financing and meet the debt. Has India, Pakistan, Rwanda or Kenya ever defaulted in debt in their own currency? Never in worst scenario. India came to default in 1992 only for FOREX debt, never on local debt which was always honored.

    It is only when the debt is contracted in some foreign currency, that the chances of default increases. US debt is mostly in its own currency and meet the obligation by printing more money in paper and electronic form via Bail out, QE1, QE2 and so on.

    Supposing you need Rs 100 crore and have luxury to issue the debt in your own currency, say Jana Rupees, not Indian Rupees, When it comes to repayment, you can use printing machine or photo copy machine to print entire JanaRs 100 crore and meet the obligation. May be your currency will depreciate in the market against Indian Rupees, but you will not care, You are still AAA rated borrower who can pay her debt. However, if your debt is in Indian Rupees or US Dollar, you can not print them on your HP or Epson printer or offset printing press.

    Do not listen to them. They are hand in glove with the US government. I never trust US rating agencies – they are the lousiest and always misleading investors. Their ranking of AAA debt rating to almost all CDO have been questioned, but someone has decided not to sue them as yet. If millions of investors sue them, they will file for Chapter 11 for bankruptcy protection.

    However, the people, funds, MF and Pension Funds listen to them for a while because their charter does not permit them to invest lower rated bonds. If they downgrade USA, Obama will summon them without anyone taking notice, thrash them and send them to Guantanamo Bay to try them 20 years later and bundled them with Al Quaida terrorists. They would be rated as “Financial Terrorists”

  92. GOLD,Reg:sell?                                                                                        Respected Sir,                                                                                                            According to u gold will correct sharply if USD index rises by 100 basis points.On the downside,what levels are u expecting gold to fall?Can u guide me as to whether i should sell gold today as it may correct sharply or can i ride on it for some more time?Please give your valuable suggestion.I hold silver too.Please guide.                                                                                                                                                                 Rhea,HYDERABAD,ANDHRA PRADESH,INDIA

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 18, 2011
    I am fed up with your post – it is either posted from your mobile phone or otherwise. I have to correct your formating before I could even reply. Further, you are posting query in wrong places. Read all sections at the top (main article) understand our requirements and protocol and then only post. The readers like you make me angry.

    Your question is “If and But” and reply is already posted here for almost a month and also in daily stock observatory under Enter and Exit levels. Read that again. Long term target remain same. I can not give every reader “ball by ball” commentary. My replies are crisp, to the point and without any double interpretation.

  93. Sub: Your recent comment on silver

    Dear Sir,
    In a recent comment to Sanjay (sanjay17 Apr 11 at 11:13 PM) you mentioned that Silver may or MAY NOT reach 1 lakhs in India. With silver trading at 65000 appx. at 43 USD …  1 lakh will be reach when silver reaches about 70 USD per ounce at near similar USD INR conversion rates.
    Why sudden change of opinion when i know you are man of strong observations and recommendations. 

    Thanks and Regards
    Ritesh, Jaipur, India, 18 April 2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 18, 2011
    What do you mean? Do you think that a mass commodity can rise 5 times without any correction? I have not deviated from my original suggestions. When the rise become very quick, there is always correction. Indian Stock Observatory gives only short term trading perspective. I have bought Silver at $5.19 average cost, and Rs 8400 average cost in India. I am still holding it selling occasionally for my personal need, but still hold 60% of my original quantity which is floating profit.

  94. Hong Kong Stocks

    Dear Anil,

    Would you have any recommendation on Hong Kong stocks ?

    Mukesh, Monday 18th April

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 18, 2011
    Not at the moment. I am negative on the properties in Hong Kong. Also, if US$ is depegged, many properties deals from mainland China will falter. If you want to know more, buy my new ebook “Is US$ Peg at Breaking Point? A worth speculation HK$ gain 30% in 2 years” See the box above and side bar to buy the full 18 pages (Letter size) article with full details, strategies and action timing.

  95. Sub: IFCI RESULT -2011

    Hi  Sir,

    Can you please look into detailed results of IFCI and let us know whether it is on right track or not.

    you can check this link,

    Rahul, Noida,  India , 18 Apr-11

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 18, 2011
    Nothing to worry about. It is on track. The lower profit may be due to provisioning of lower Bond value caused by the higher interest rates. This is why I was negative on banks and financial institutions since last October stating the financial sector would take a hit from mid or end of April which is exactly happening.

    Full year profit was still higher by 5%. It takes time for IFCI to pass on the higher interest cost to the borrowers because while it has to pay higher rates almost immediately, the borrowers usually have longer term contracts for Term Loans.

  96. INDIAN RUPEE : How to link the movement of Indian Rupee with the stock markets ? 

    Dear Sir,

    Hope this finds you in good health. I have observed that in a lot of your answers you predict the stock market advance or decline based on the firmness or weakness of the rupee – I tried to look at the rupee chart with NIFTY but could not find any direct correlation. 

    Could you please explain how to understand this correlation ?

    Thanking you in advance

    Vyas, Bangalore, India

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 18, 2011
    There is a delayed effect on SENSEX and NIFTY due to FII Inflow. Use your common sense – If any FII wants to buy stock, it has to sell dollar first and buy rupee. Without creating demand for rupee, they can not buy Indian stocks. Considering the time required for remittance from place of origin, its conversion in India, intervening holidays (Saturday/Sunday/Public holidays) and actual buying of stocks, it may take anywhere between 2 to 5 working days. Similarly when the FII wants to sell the stocks, they cover the Rupee first by selling rupee and buying dollar. So weakness of rupee is also related to proposed or future selling by the FII.

    Domestic buying or selling does not affect rupee nor there is time lag. If you want to buy a stock, you just issue the buy order and settle on third day without any exchange conversion. But If I want to buy the stock in India from my NRE account, then I have to arrange $ remittance, convert into NRE rupees and then issue buy order a day before or after the conversion depending on my relationship with the bank.

    It applies not only to India, but everywhere in the world. Many years ago before financial crisis, Dollar used to firm up before Dow rosé. It is only after financial crisis that the relationship is weak because most of the Dow stocks buying is related to domestic purchase by banks and funds who have free money from the FED

    Respected Sir,
    I want to buy a plot of 1000 sq yards in ahmedabad.However recently the “Jantri” (official price of land) has been revised upwards and some people are expecting a correction.I want to know whether after 5-6 years of boom will prices decrease? should i wait for some time before buying?
    Mihir Shah

  98. PROPERTY Reg ;To Buy ?
    Respected Sir,

    I am interested in buying a plot at a prime location in Mysore,Karnataka, INDIA.According to u property rates may go down further.So do i buy now or wait for some time for prices to go down.Please give your precious advice.

    Rhea,MYSORE,INDIA,17 APRIL 2011

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, April 17, 2011
    I am not too familiar with Mysore. To my knowledge, the property prices went up much in the area of Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai. Bangalore has seen rise earlier than run in major cities and now consolidating. Mysore is on outskirts of Bangalore.

    There is nothing wrong in buying suitable Land, because the land prices do not fall in line with the built in properties. In prime location, the land is scarce and demand there always. You may buy it if it is relatively cheap or the location is too good to ignore.

  99. GOLD AND SILVER Reg; correction in gold
    U have guided to sell silver at 68000 till april end but what about gold ? Do i hold gold or sell it correspondingly when silver is at $50 to rebuy it at lower level for a target of $1685.

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, April 17, 2011
    When I say sell Silver, do I have to say Don’t sell gold, copper, aluminum, zinc.steel etc. etc.? I have given my targets for both – and read other people’s target too. When those targets come, do not ask others, just sell it at that time. You can not have moving target.

    I gave the original target of silver at Rs 60,000 in short term, and the people are getting 64,000 today. Why do I have to say to readers whether they should sell at 68,000 or 73,000 or Rs 1 Lakh which is my long term target (which may be or may not be achieved) mentioned almost a year and half ago when the Silver was at Rs 18,000 or about. So when that target comes, just sell it without asking others. The profit is yours if it is in your pocket.

  100. SILVER Reg ; open interest
    Dear Sir,
    I would like to know where can i track open interest of silver,please guide.

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, April 17, 2011
    Visit COMEX/NYMEX website. Also visit ICE website. It is time consuming though. Also visit ino.com where you get daily quotes with open interest. I do not know about OI on MCX in India – contact them directly.

  101. India : Silver : Sell

    Dear Sir

    Following your kind advise, I had bought 18kg physical silver (1 kg 0.999 purity each) in May 2010 from Dubai at the rate of AED 2,200/- each (equivalent to approximately Rs. 26,500/- at the then prevailing exchange rate between UAE Dirhams & Indian rupees). Over the past year, I have transferred 9kg out of 18kg to India as part of hand baggage during my number of visits (no duty paid).
    I have noted your recommendation to sell silver at approx. Rs. 68,000/- per kg, which might happen pretty soon.
    Please advise if I should sell all at one go / in stages / keep my Indian holdings for the long term. I have no short to medium term cash requirements.
    For information, the shop where I bought the silver bars in Dubai is currently selling at approximately AED 5,200/- per kg.
    Also, if you or any of the readers, has any leads on where to sell silver bars in Delhi, please do let me know.


    Vikas Sharma, Dubai, UAE. Sunday, 17 April 2011.

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, April 17, 2011
    I can not spoon feed you. If you wish to sell, you may sell at one go (if you are getting good price in sudden rise) or sell progressively. It is up to you. If you are not in control where to sell in India, why do you take it there? Any reputed jeweller shop will buy Silver from you in New Delhi. Consult Bullion Merchant Association in New Delhi if you do not know.

  102. Sir

    What is your short term and long term outlook on oil prices which are inching towards 110 dollars?

    Do you see it reaching 70 dollars in the next 1 year if you forecast a slowdown since oil prices fall in slowdown as dollar gets stronger.

    At present the QE2 money is keeping oil higher. I live in an arab state and i can tell u no problem in uae, bahrain or muscat anymmore. Libya has 2% production. Oil is driven higher by speculators which has to crash some day.

    in such a case HPCL becomes a good buy for long term.

    What u say sir?

    Abu Dhabi

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 16, 2011
    Capitalize your words. Do not use your mobile phone to post your query.

    Oil prices are at $125 not 110. India is also buying oil at $125. Oil prices are increasingly quoted in Euro than USD. Why do you think that US Dollar will become stronger? I see no reason except occasional flashes here and there. No one in India uses Texas crude oil trading at $110. You have to add the shipment cost too which is nearly 7% to 10%.

    Until Oil Cartel is broken, which is unlikely, I do not see prices coming down so low unless there is global market crash which engineers recession everywhere including China and India. Deal with reality, not on paper trades. A man on the street needs physical petrol, not future contracts.

  103. Dear sir ,
    My comments are not appearing on CMCA , please check if they are marked as spam .
    Sachin , Pune ,India

  104. Dear sir ,
    I hold gold and silver as per your original call given in 2009 .
    Now that silver in reaching 68000 / KG in rupees , I wanted to know if one should disinvest silver around 70000 level when they reach or wait for silver to reach 68 $ or 1 lakh INR level .
    Sachin , Pune , India .

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 16, 2011
    Already advised everyone to be prepared to sell when it reaches Rs 68,000 or about. If you have more, go on selling part by part progressively. My advise is no different to others. The target of Rs 1 lakh can not be achieved without considerable consolidation. The Silver may consolidate between Rs 75000 and Rs 83000 for long time before it advances further.

    When the silver rises very fast, it will be difficult to sell in physical market because the dealers’ spread will be higher. So feed in the stock slowly and steadily. Gold may still be retained for a while. Target $ 1685

  105. IND, STOCKS, Chambal Fertilisers, Sub: Uptrend, can we buy
    Chambal fertiliser (CMP 87.4) is clearly in uptrend. And stock doesn’t fall with market fall in recent days. As long as it trades above 85, it has potential to cross 92 also. Can you advise on this in stock observatory page as you never comment on short term targets here. However, it is showing in overbought zone as per technicals. Will technical analysis always correct? when we are waiting for results and also if some good news to come out, should we follow technical analysis or go with trend?

    Hyderabad, 16 April 2010.

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 16, 2011
    Noted. As a policy, I do not invest into price controlled sectors like Fertilizers where farmers are vote dictators. These stocks will perform well when the monsoon starts or about 2 weeks before monsoon season when the farmers till the land and spread the fertilizers for certain crops. Major dose of fertilizer is given in middle of monsoon season. I therefore wait till onset of June and see weather is friendly or not. Your selection is also a good stock, I do not go for 3% to 5% gains. They happen everywhere. Unless the stock has potential to give decent double digit gain in short term, I cover them. Otherwise, I don’t.

  106. US, Gold
    Dear Sir,
    It seems the there is some shift on moving back to gold standards.
    See following link:
    Your valuable thought appreciated on this.
    Baroda, India;16/04/2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 15, 2011
    Interesting, but It will never happen all through United States. There are also many constitutional issues where the jurisdiction of Federal govt and State govt will come into play. (Like in India where in certain matters like RBI policy, States do not have say over Central Government jurisdiction)

    On the contrary there may come a legislation to bar the people from owning gold and silver and surrender to Federal government in exchange of paper dollar. It happened once in 1934

    1934 Roosevelt Orders Silver “Confiscation”
    On August 9, 1934, only 16 months after Roosevelt issued gold confiscation order no. 6102 to nationalize people’s Gold, Roosevelt issued yet another executive order no. 6814, to confiscate and nationalize silver (in accordance with the Silver Purchase Act of 1934). By October 5th of the same year, the treasury reported collecting a total of 93.4 million ounces of fine silver from the people. In return, the people received about .54 cents in paper or coin for each ounce of silver. Majority never followed the orders and quietly held onto their silver and gold.

    The current debt of over US$ 14 trillion is so huge that it is impossible to implement the gold or silver standard. I have provided terrific solution to current problems in my book “Sub Prime Resolved” in the chapter on Eurodollar. If they implement that measure, 40% of America’s problems will disappear.

  107. Sir

    why is infosys results and guidance down if US is seeing recovery as is the belief in markets? It means QE2 is not working, spending by corporates in IT is down. It means recession never ended.

    Recovery was paper money created only.

    abu dhabi

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 15, 2011
    Recession never ended at the first place. We have said that before number of times. All talks of recovery are just “moral boosting statements” from official quarters.

    Nevertheless, with almost all currencies rising except Indian Rupee, the Software exports are better placed than before. Their applications are serving as “necessity” , not avoidable luxury items. Indian Software exports will rise by 300% in next 7 years.

    TCS is always better than Infosys which has become more like Warren Buffet type enterprise with big talks in government quarters. The silent operators like TCS, Satyam. HCL will perform better. Those who do not talk perform better.

  108. View on Infosys

    I have 40 shares of infosys at a price of 3013 rs. As the result and the guidance is not as per expectation, the stock closed today at 2986 rs. What’s your view? Should I add more if it falls to 2700-2800 or exit?


    Nadim Azami
    Kuwait, 15th April, 2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 15, 2011
    I have not seen the result. I will reserve my comment in Stock Observatory later on Monday. Your reply will also be posted here.

  109. Sub: Long term agriculture play, India

    Dear Sir, 

    What are your views on Agri commodities especially food crops. Do you feel any long term opportunity (2-4 years) in this market exists in India. 

    Let us know your views on the same. If possible, convey using an article on rising commodities prices especially food crops, possible shortages, unstable weather, unstable reserve currency, Japanese loss of agriculture land, and high demand growth.  

    Ritesh, Jaipur, India, 15 April 2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 15, 2011
    Agriculture stocks are seasonal – they are mostly cash crops – working on 3 to 5 months cycle. At the most one can anticipate events for 12 months, not beyond.

    Currently, Corn, Wheat, Soybean and Milk offer good opportunities. Corn and Wheat are near high, Soybean is medium high and Milk is convulsing to go higher, may do so more in May and June when the summer peaks.

    Sugar offer the cheapest opportunity. One can go long on Sugar or Sugar stocks. Cattlefeeds, Cows and Cowhide may also go higher due to rise in feed stock, and maintenance cost of animal. Please note that you have to read multiple factors such as Weather, local crops and rains, international demand and crops in US, Brazil, Argentina, China, Canada and Australia. For milk, look at New Zealand. Also consider US$ level vs Indian rupee.

    You can not take 3 years positions because (1) shelf life of produce is low (2) holding power of farmers are also low. so slight demand resistance will result in distress selling bringing down the prices.

  110. Gold – Expected Price

    Dear Sir,

    After hearing a lot about you, I started following your blogs. Though I have received a lot of information on Gold from you, please give the indicative figures by the end of 2011. I have invested in Gold and looking up to add in more funds at the suggestive levels.

    Thank you. Regards,

    Vishal, New Delhi, India. 15-Apr-2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 15, 2011
    We have been giving such information in various comments in CMCA column. Also you should read my article on Gold – Gold $6400 Silver $80 – written about more than a year ago.

    To be specific to your query, we have indicated a level of $ 1685 by June 2011 and if the situation explodes on dollar front, it could go to $2100 rapidly. It all depends on the immediate future of US dollar Index which is almost 12 months low at 74.69 and any break below 74 might trigger one of the most powerful rally in gold where you can see the prices rising by $60 to $100 in single day. It could happen before April end or Mid May. I can not give you Rupee terms because it is not a free currency (it is managed currency)

    Many central banks have started allowing their currency to get firm to tame inflation. Read my comments in today’s Stock Observatory which will be published immediately before Indian market opening.

  111. India Stock Ruchi Soya
    Respected Sir,
    You are advising stocks on the stocks observatory, on the other hand you have clearly given blanket sell call, predicting deep correction uptil mid October.Sir,I beg your pardon,will we not get trapped by entering into stocks at this point of time? Though off course trading can be done at any point of time.My query is on Ruchi Soya specifically.Can we initiate trade on this counter?
    Lakshmi Lucknow India 15/4/2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 15, 2011
    Stock observatory is meant for short term situation or stock specific situation. My Sale call stands but in any event we have given sale call to sell 90% of the stocks – 10% still remains. Specific situations as above remain within those 10% on reduced scale. Further, we have asked readers to lighten up by the end of April whereas we are just in second week. The quarterly results for many companies would be reported in Mid April to End April so that the readers will have enough time to take well informed and educated decisions.

    Stock observatory column is started to address certain situations having implications on the market and some stock specific situations so that repeated queries in CMCA is avoided.

    When I have to withdraw SALE call, I will make specific mention about it in this column or separate post


    Dear Sir,

    As per your Stock observatory you are asking to sell l&t to Rel /Tcs.

    I have 70 shares of L&t at Inr 1953 rs each .Total Investment of Rs 136710/-  Cmp of L&T is Inr 1725.

    Also would it be better to switch to shares like Mtnl,Ashok leyland,
    SpiceJet,as would gain more .


  113. US, USD to INR


    I have 50000 USD which I want to transfer to India at some point. Is it a right time to convert USD to INR?

    Kishore,CA,USA. 04-14-2011.

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 14, 2011
    Yes, I did tell you when the rates go near 44.70 or 44.80 do not ask me question, just do it, so do it.

    Since the above reply, Rupee appreciated to 44.30 or about. I do not know whether you acted on it or may be the dollar is converted only in India when received. Do not take further chance, as it appears that lot of money has moved into India resulting into quick appreciation of rupee after hitting 44.67 yesterday.

    Send it takes time for bank to convert into Indian Rupee, better send the US$ to India and retain in call deposit. When the rates are in your favour, ask your bank to terminate the call deposit and convert into Indian Rupee.

    If this too dicey for you, and do not want to send the money to call deposits, send the remittance when the rates are relatively stable because in wild swing, you may not get the desired rates. you are also not permitted to keep the balance in USD in Savings account. this is why the suggestion for call deposit.

  114. Sir please check your post on my comment of 1st April and guide me in Satyam case

    Thanks& Regards

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 14, 2011
    You were told as under:

    For Satyam. while conditions are good, there was a tax demand of over Rs 600 crores from IT Department in False income for which the hearing in High court in Andhra Pradesh is pending. The High Court did not give stay order to Satyam and its all acounts were frozen blocking almost Rs 1300 crores.

    In all probability, Satyam should win this case, because tax is payable only on real income, not on fraudulently disclosed income for which audit has already been made. Nevertheless, you may sell because the market is at high end.

    As you are aware Government has set aside the IT Demand for a while and almost entire amount of Rs 1300 crores are defreezed (no official declaration as such). As such Satyam has risen. Please note that court hearing is scheduled in Mid April on this case, so recent uplifting or withdrawal of demand is not final. When the court upholds Satyam contention then only major cloud on Satyam will be removed. I again reiterate that Satyam should win this case and IT Demand is false or raised with ulterior motive. You are living in corrupt India where anything is possible.

    We recommended Satyam long time ago, with target of Rs 160 at least, but when you go on harping that I am losing, I am losing… then we have no alternative but to advise you to cut the loss and think of buying back later in correction. Your notional loss of 15% was not so great – this kind of losses are always there in any market bull or bear. Even I have about 20% of losses in some counters like Ashta Vinaya k and 8% in IOC, but I do not trade.You have to learn to become a long term investor rather than looking at the stocks on minute to minute basis.

    Yes, the market is still overpriced and in fact corrected until yesterday when it rebounded for no reasons. I have mentioned earlier about Satyam that please wait until its final result is out in Mid April or end of April. In fact, the USD index is so precariously low that the correction may come at any time soon.

    If you have sold Satyam, (50%) and wish to buy back, wait until correction or at least its final result is out. Buy then if the result is good. Even if you have to pay a little more, you will be with the trend (upward).

    Thank you very much for your time and your views.All your predictions are coming true Kalidasji.Also today unemployment numbers came in worse than expected.Obama is not agressive in his budget proposals to reduce the fiscal deficit.So now USA has:
    1) A housing market in the dumps
    2) Unemployment decreasing slower than desired
    3)An ever increasing deficit and Fed Balancesheet
    Also 4)BOJ is doing their own QE
    and  5)Euro zone debt crisis widening
    and 6)Middle East tension adding fuel(Crude) to the INFLATIONARY Fire
    and 7) Central Bankers were net buyers of gold in 2010 and likely to continue in 2011.

    All pointing to a sustained rally in PRECIOUS METALS.
    Hence as u have said i guess its a time to:
    sit tight and enjoy the ride and add more on dips in this secular bull rally and hope for QE3,4…QE Armageddon.
    I hope all my above observations are correct.
    Finally THANK YOU very much..!!
    Mihir Shah,Ahmedabad,India,4/14/11

  116. USD Index, Gold, Silver and Equity Markets.


    The USD index is now below 75, touching a low of 74.70. Sir, your inputs on the above markets if the decline continues and to what level.

    Best Regards,

    Hem, Mumbai

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 15, 2011
    Do not ask repetitive questions. We have said it before in this column that if the USD Index falls below 74, especially 73.5, be prepared for sudden devaluation of dollar by 7%, and that will give rise of 12% rise in gold prices and 30% rise in silver prices from current level.

  117. Heading :-India, Economy, Recession., Reg: Nature of coming Recession

    Dear Sir,

    Ur views on Economic Trends,Currency,Commodity etc are really great.In fact you are a school for us.

    As per your view India may face recession in coming quarters.In fact I am also seeing some smoking singals. i.e. lack of property deals, there is no waiting listing for cars. cement dealers says sales is reducing.

    1. Even if Rain is good Impact of recession will be severe?

    2. Is there any possibility of negative earning growth?

    3. Apart of weak property demand any other factors which can lead recession  much deeper?

    Sir it is difficult to give 100% perfect reply but I would like to have your approx. view.


    Prakash Mehta

    India is not in recession now. If the monsoon is good, then the impact of slow down will be less. There is difference between “Recession” and “Slow Down”. Recession means negative growth (GDP) figures for two consecutive quarters in a row.

    There will be slowdown in earnings, not necessarily negative earnings. Some sectors like builders, construction companies, engineering companies might show even losses, but other consumer oriented companies will report higher or stable earnings dented only by slower margins due to their inability to pass on the cost to consumers.

    The property market went ahead of fundamentals, miles ahead. It is under correction.

    Currently, the countries having larger head counts (number of people or population) are able to avert the recession or slow down because they are more dependent on domestic markets, than exports. India’s reliance on exports is mainly on software, textiles and diamonds. If there is slackness in exports, locals will fill in the gap.

    Higher interest rates will engineer the slow down and it has really. If the rates continue to go higher, then prospects of recession entering India will be higher, beginning from November. The real effect of recession will be known only after the monsoon and especially from end of FY 2011 (April 2012)

    It may be noted that there are tons of money with the Indians now. If the gold and silver prices go on shooting higher, and property prices turn lower, there is strong possibility for sale of gold by Indian consumers to buy the property. It is like selling gold high and buying property low. India has very very large population with insatiable property demand, so the low end properties (less than Rs 15 to 20 lakhs in non urban cities) will be bought more out of sale of gold and silver. In short, gold and silver will be monetized.

    Higher end properties will continue to suffer. Cities like Mumbai, Chennai and Delhi will be worst affected. The upper middle class people do not have much savings in Gold or silver. These educated mass have more investment in paper assets such as Shares,Futures, Options, ULIP, Mutual Funds, or in stock markets, than gold or silver.

    Villagers are therefore better investors than those city dwelling educated people (MBA, CA, Engineers, employees, doctors, professionals or otherwise) at this point of time. 90% of gold and silver reside in the cottages of farmers in villages or class II and III Cities. They switch or swap assets from cash to crops to gold to silver to land or properties. They do not invest into paper assets such as shares. In short they are so intelligent that they do not invest into something they do not know. Most urbanites do just opposite.

  118. India, Equity, ADSL – BCCL Buying ASDL @ 277 
    Dear Sir,
    I googled and found this information from NSE site Please go through this link http://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/companyinfo/eod/announcements.jsp?symbol=ADSL

    The required information is under the announcement Date of 30-03-2011

    I request your view on this.


    Krishna , Hyderabad
    India , 14th April 2011.

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 14, 2011
    Here are the terms of the warrants issued by ADSL to BCCL. The details are still sketchy and we need to dig deep into more details from company’s annual report, if available, or ask the company directly which is not possible for me.


    During the year, Your Company has allotted 2,00,000 Warrants on preferential basis toBCCL, with an option to BCCL to subscribe to equal number of Equity Shares within a periodof 18 months from the date of allotment of the Warrants at a floor price of Rs. 277/- perEquity Shares. The pricing of the Equity arising out of exercise of rights attached to thewarrants shall not be lower than the price determined in accordance with clause Chapter XIII of SEBI (Disclosure and Investor Protection) Guidelines, 2000 SUBJECTHOWEVER THAT in the event, the price determined in accordance with Clause ofChapter XIII of SEBI (Disclosure and Investor Protection) Guidelines, 2000 is more thanRs. 277/- at the time of conversion, then, the warrants will be converted into EquityShares at such higher price subject to a upper cap of Rs. 100/- over and above floor priceof Rs. 277/-. The Company has already received warrant application money of Rs. 188.50Lacs.

    It will be observed that

    1. The warrants were issued at a price – Rs 188.50 lacs for 200,000 shares or about Rs 94 per share. Also, consider that actions of BCCL were taken on 28/3/2011 just 3 days before the financial year (31/3/2011). According to new accounting guidelines, under MTM rules (Mark to Market Rules), all investments into shares, bonds, CB, warrants etc are to be valued on MTM basis, that is, Mark to Market basis. The price of the stock was at about Rs 93 as you have said on 28/3 and the exercise price was Rs 277. As such, the effective value of the warrants would be “ZERO”. In that case, the Auditors would be valuing the investment at ZERO causing total loss of Rs 188 lakhs.

      By converting the warrants into shares, they may be trying to defer the loss. Even then, I do not know how it helps them, because the shares are also to be valued on MTM basis (unless there are “exceptional” rules). In that case too, the loss could have been same.

      I also do not have idea whether Rs 277 conversion price includes the premium of Rs 94 already paid or on top of that.

      It is possible that the conversion prices might be lowered at the instance of BCCL and in compliance with the SEBI rules 13.1.1 under which new price might have been close to current market price. In that case, BCCL does not have to pay more money on conversion and their cost of shares would have been same as warrant price, that is, Rs 94 per share which is close to current market price. In that case, BCCL does not have to write off the investment which otherwise would hurt its balance sheet.

      It is therefore likely that the newsout as above is “misleading” in that they have not mentioned new price of conversion pursuant to SEBI rules, and by mentioning the original price of Rs 277, an impression will be given that the company’s shares are valued so high by investors. It is also possible that BCCL might have bought more shares from the market at CMP to average down their investment cost. In that case, even under MTM rule, the average price will not cause heavy dilution in price. It is also possible that the BCCL might have bought more shares at lower prices in terms of ADSL recent purchase under sharebuy back program. ADSL would have bought shares from the market and then gave it over to BCCL who might have funded the purchase.

      These are only speculations. I can only say that the newsout is misleading and SEBI should raise objection to such newsout as misleading the market and investors.

      DO NOT read much into this. It is hoax and has more to do with the accounting. Wait until the final audited numbers are out as at 31/3/2011 and also read the similar annual report of BCCL if it is a public listed company. You have to read their version too.

  119. Dear Sir:
    Planet EARTH is truely blessed with the KIND of A PERSON it has i.e YOU.
    The knowledge you have, the way you interact, the nature of sharing and answering, the guidance you give, the response you reflect and overall support you provide is WORTHY by ITSELF. KEEP UP.
    I would like to invest in few companies i.e Abbot India, Sesa Goa, Oil India. I wish that you do let me know about the details of such companies and their future growth and the reason of why should I invest. I have just selected such companies with a say from a friend. But I need your final decision and judgement and I will work accordingly.
    Should I or Not? Just let me know with details. I have already invested in OMC, Spice Jet and others after reading from your website.

  120. Dear Anil Ji,

    Yesterday, the 13th April markets moved up with a big bang Sensex gallopped 600 points from the day’s low. From the BSE web-site,we find there was no FIIs buying. Even DIIs didn’t buy. Could you please throw some light as how markets went up by 3% without buying support(atleast as per bse data)? Further, whether sharp falls are in the offing?

    Rajesh Agrawal
    14th April 2011

  121. Reg; GOLD AND SILVER,
    Dear Sir,
    On the basis of your strong recommendation,can I trade in gold and silver futures on MCX for a target of $1685 and Rs 72000 respectively,by entering at current levels ?                                                                        


    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 13, 2011
    I do not advise on futures. Further, post your message properly – do not use mobile phone as I have to reformat the entire message. I will delete it in future.

  122. India-Satyam- hold or buy?

    Sir a few days back you told m to liquidate 50% holdings in Satyam ,i did so. Now you say it will cross 100 mark by may end and its already moving up with volumes. 

    Sir do i buy back now or you feel it will correct too with the market in early next month and i will get a price under 60 that time?

    thanks& Regards

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 13, 2011
    I do not remember in which context. Quote me verbatim or inform me the date of your post.

    I do not think Satyam will get back to 60s level.

  123. SILVER,Reg:can i buy at current levels?

    Dear Sir,
    I missed the level of 39.75 ,so can i buy silver at current levels ?  

    Vishal G.,MYSORE, INDIA,14-04-2011.

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 13, 2011
    I have given the levels well in advance. If you miss it, do not ask me. Wait for that level again. If you are lucky, you may hit it.

  124. India, Equity, ADSL – BCCL Buying ASDL @ 277 

    Dear Sir,

    This is the News Item I found in money control blog .No Idea about the original source.

    “BCCL to exercise its warrants In ADSL Mumbai March 28, 2011 – Allied Digital Services ltd. (ADSL) a leading Indian IT Infrastructure Management services and solutions provider and a Forbes “200 Best under a Billion” company, today announced that Bennett Coleman & Co. ltd (BCCL) has elected to exercise the warrants issued to it for purchase of shares of Allied Digital Services Limited. BCCL will be subscribing to 200,000 shares
    upon the exercise of the warrants. The consideration paid for the same shall be Rs. 5.54 crores, i.e.Rs.277 /- per share having a face
    value of Rs.5/-”

    My question is why BCCL opted for conversion of warrants @277  where as the CMP of ADSL is around 92 ; what could be the  the logic behind it.?


    Krishna , Hyderabad

    India , 14th April 2011.

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 13, 2011
    Check always the Official Announcement (corporate Announcement) on NSE while visiting the company’s stock quotes. I did not find any information relating to above.

    Following is a link to a website which i have been consistently following:
    They had suggested silver at 17$ and are now calling for a correction till the early 30’s before a rally to over 50$
    I am holding silver 20kg from 40K level, havent booked profits yet?
    Do you suggest to hold or sell & re-enter after correction?
    Mihir Shah,Ahmedabad,India,4/13/2011

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 13, 2011
    If you believe them, you may do so. My views are well known, so do not want to give you running commentary.


    Your view on currency appreciation to be done by India, Japan, China seems to have reached atleat to the China Central bank (may be RBI will follow), please see the below link –


    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 13, 2011
    Append your signature always.

    Even Monkeys imitate, Donkeys don’t. Where does RBI fit in? Time alone will tell.

    HONG KONG DOLLAR This is the most undervalued currency in the world today. A few years ago, Chinese Yuan was 8.28/US$ to HK$ 7.80/US$. Now, Yuan has appreciated to 6.53/US$ whereas HK$ remained almost same. Hong Kong belongs to China for all practical purposes.

    The time is approaching very fast for HK$ to abandon its peg and realign itself with China on whom it depends almost 90% of its trade. If past is any indication, the fair value of HK$ to US$ is 6.0 (10% lower than Yuan as in the past). That is, HK$ has potential to appreciate by 25% to 30% in next 2 years, may be less. I have therefore retained my savings only in HK$ – I will wait, it will happen. I have patience.

  127. INDIA, Bank Interest Rates, Has it peaked?

    Dear Sir,

    Sometime back it was indicated the bank interest rates would reach between 10-12%. True to your words it has reached 10.00 to 10.50% now. Kindly let us know if it has peaked or there is some more upside left.

    Best Regards,
    Suresh, Bangalore, India
    14th April 2011

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 13, 2011
    The momentum (in rise of interest rates) appear to have slowed, but it can not be said that it has peaked. Raising interest rates is not a solution for India, but those duds in RBI and Finance Ministry do not understand it. Manmohan Singh and Pranab Mukherji do not have common sense to understand the folly of RBI and its team of advisers in finance ministry and in the Economic Planning Commission.

    They must know once for all that they have to make MCX as delivery based future market and allow the Indian rupee to appreciate in free market environment. When those idiots will understand, I do not know, and until they realize the truth hard way, they would have destroyed India in its nest by self destructive policy.

    There is something that has happened. I have seen massive rise in readership in the article on Rupees written by me sometime ago. If some of RBI or MOF are those readers, then perhaps, a long shot, something good may happen.

    When country like Brazil allowed its currency to appreciate from 2.80 to 1.56, Euro from 1.19 to 1.45, British Pound from 1.48 to 1.64, China from 8.28 to 6.53, what the hell is preventing RBI to allow the rupee to get firmer. Alright, you allowed it to remain weak but it has not worked. Now, at least for a change, allow it to rise for god’s sake. See what happens then, instead of riding the same horse in reverse gear all the time?

    The inflation will go higher in next two months as summer months are closing in. We may see another two rise of 0.25% and then wait for Lord Indra (Rain God) to do wonders by liberal rains on all parts of India.

  128. SUB:INDIA/EQUITY/Buy Bombay Dyeing

    Dear Anil Jee,

    I have watched Bombay Dyeing (CMP 390/-) over the past 2-3 years and in a year whenever it moves 2-3 times, it moves with a great momentum.I wish to purchase this stock, may be just 100-200 shares.I would like to have your views on this. 

    I always appreciate your help to small investors like us.

    Best Regards,
    Anjana Dugar
    Udaipur (Raj)-INDIA
    13 April 2011

  129. India – Welspun Corp
    Dear Anilji,
    Apropos your comment “Where were you when the stock deeply corrected” on my query dated 11-Apr on the above stock, I believe this deep correction was induced because of the SEBI order (@03-12-10) debarring the promoters from dealing in their shares because of alleged manipulation. After this the picture was not clear (at least to me). I would appreciate if you could share your valuable insight on this particular stock in view of the post SEBI order developments and how you see this stock moving from here on.
    Thanks for your invaluable advice.
    Best regards,
    Ajay Dand – Mumbai -India.

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 13, 2011
    Why do you guys pay too much attention to political and administrative actions of government or its machinery? Their actions rarely have financial implications for long. When those guys take actions and the stock falls as result, they provide the extreme buy opporutnities. Read my 23 Commandments of Stock Market again.


    Dear Anil Jee,

    As per your today’s update in Stock observatory, please advise on buying of Shree Renuka Sugar (CMP 74.75)  /Balram Chini Mills (CMP75.50).I wish to invest in about Rs. 50,000/- in these stocks.I do not have any sugar stock in my portfolio as of now.Your views are awaited.

    Thanking you in advance.

    Vandana Kothari 
    Udaipur (Raj)-India
    13April 2011

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 12, 2011
    Honestly, I have not made serious study on Sugar stocks. Yes, above companies are very prominent, but I used to prefer Andhra Pradesh Sugar Mill (or similar name) which is a high dividend paying company with little debt. However, the above two names are very popular with the investors with Bajaj Hindustan. you may go for it after preliminary study.


    Recently Goldman Sachs made a comment saying it’s time to move out of crude oil.Following this most commodities includind silver sold off their peaks by 4-5%.many traders have begun to question whether since the crude oil trade is off,does that signal a broad based commodity sell off ?Please enlighten us by your views on this?

    Mihir Shah,Ahmedabad,India,4/8/11

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 12, 2011
    What Goldman looks at is only crude oil, not other factors such as Euro and USD Index. The dollar index which is at precariously low below 75, falls below 74, the oil prices will get boost by at least 7% from current level.

    What Goldman has not covered in its report is that the oil prices are now being increasingly quoted in Euro against US$ in the past. The reason is that there has been frequent US economic sanctions in the name of democracy on middle east nations and often, their forex reserve is frozen overnight. As result, the ME countries, especially Iran and now Libya, are quoting the prices in Euro. The buyer has to buy Euro first (selling dollar in the process) to settle for purchase of oil. This is why, Euro of late is going up with rise in Oil prices. Such factors often go unreported, because no one knows about them. (only Kalidas knows). Earlier, those ME nations used to buy GBP, but since Britain has joined US in most trade sanctions, ME nations do not buy either GBP or even Yen.

    Only yesterday, Wall Street Journal reported the acute differences between US and Germany where US wanted to ban the EIH Bank in Germany which has Branch Office in Teheran, and which is increasingly used by most small to medium German enterprises to export their products to Iran. It is over 30 years old bank. Germany flatly refused to impose any trade sanctions or even ban the bank from operating in Germany.

    This is why in my Book “sub Prime Resolved” I have mentioned in my recommendation to impose constitutional ban on Congress to freeze the account of the foreign government in the name of economic sanctions. If their foreign balances are frozen, who will keep money with United States? This is why my book is one of the best in the market place where total solutions are shown to the US government. Present Arab actions not to quote in US Dollar was the main reason for blockade of their forex Reserve. Even Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was attacked only because Saddam started quoting oil price in Euro and not in US dollars. There were no weapons of mass destructions, It is just dollar/euro economics and politics.

  132. MTNL: Switch or Average out

    Dear Sir,

    I had purchased 600 shares of MTNL in 2007 at the rate of Rs. 200/share and now the CMP is around Rs. 48/Share. Do you advice swtich the entire quantity to spice jet or should I try to average them by buying 1000 shares more of MTNL which will get the average price down to Rs. 105/share.

    Please advice.

    Sarit Haria, Mumbai, India.

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 12, 2011
    Buy 2400 shares of MTNL at CMP. And stay with it. It will work wonders later on. You may also get hefty special dividend before merging with the other giants like BSNL.

    True that Spicejet is also an alternative choice. In fact, it may act faster than MTNL. But both are different industries. What you can do is to buy 1200 of MTNL at CMP and also buy 1200 of Spicejet, instead my earlier suggestions to go only on MTNL.

    In future, the profitability of MTNL will rise several times, one due to excess provisions on retirement benefitis nearly over which chopped off large part of its earnings, and incoming of more revenue on its recently purchased 3G spectrum which will be shared with cash strapped Telco companies. With number of shares remaining constant, the growth in EPS from Mid November onwards should be faster than expected. The stock should gain to Rs 90 or more by end November, 2011.

    Please note that it is a debt free company, and it would get cash payment of Rs 1300 crores soon, that will augment its strapped cash position due to 3G investment. MTNL ADR will perform better than domestic shares by November end 2011 – unless the merger scheme with BSNL and ITI (India Telecom Industries – a govt. of India enterprise several decades old) is announced soon which is not likely due to enormous complexity involved in the deal.

    When MTNL, BSNL and ITI merges with each other to create telecom giant, the new unit may become a SENSEX 30 unit, that will add premium to the existing prices by 20%

  133. I feel that gold may appreciate at higher rate in the near future in comparison to Silver.

    I have 10 kgs of physical silver. What is your view on swapping it with physical gold


    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 12, 2011
    Silver has lot of steam to go. It is just in first phase of its rally. Gold can not rise as fast as silver because of Central Bank’s involvement in gold as reserve, not silver. Silver is private investors preferred choice and that choice is still running riot.

    You may place more additional money in gold, if fast rising silver is too high for you to add more. Two days correction phase in both Gold and Silver is nearly over with scattered selling. There are more buyers in the wing than ever before.

    When it is time to rise a horse, just ride it. Do not think of changing the animal. The destination is miles ahead where the galloping horses are needed, not the turtles.

  134. Sub. : Your Horoscope
    Dear Kalidasji,

    I have send Your Horoscope with Prediction in Gujarati to personal.kalidas@gmail.com. I have prepared it in Software- KUNDLI 2002.

    – Ramesh, Mumbai, India.

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 12, 2011
    Thanks. Received it well and also printed it. Will come back to you soon by private email.

  135. America, Henry Ford- The International jew,

    Dear Sir,

    I am going through a series of articles that Henry Ford Published in his Newspaper in 1920 when he perceived that a group a International Jewish Financiers were trying to wrest control of the Ford Motor Co.

    I would like to know your views on some of the ideas on the book, creation of a supra-national financial cartel to dominate world governments and that most international commerce and finance are controlled by Jews. These seem relevant today.

    Henry Ford, later apologised and said that he was not aware of these publications in this newspaper. This work is in the public domain. Download:


    With Regards,
    Anshuman, Kolkata, India, 12th April

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 12, 2011
    I do not know how far the Jews are in control of the businesses around the world. Their dominance is exaggerated for more than a century.They are shrewd businessmen and strong in United States, but the Chinese, Japanese, Indians and British are no jews. Even Middle East businessmen are not Jews.

    Jews have strong business profile. The Indian equivalents are Marwaris (Rajasthani), Some Punjabi sects (Aggarwals), Gujaratis (Banias) and Chettyar (South India) and new emerging class from Andhra Pradesh (Rajus etc). Some Parsis like Tata, Godrej, Wadia (Bombay Dyeing) are also very prominent. They all profess same business philosophy as Jews of Americas.

    The modern business practices are totally different than age old customs. We have more of corporate culture than traditional mom and pop shops. Look some of our businessmen like Mukesh and Anil Ambani (Gujarati), Anil Agarwal (of Sterlite and Cairns fame – Marwari), Ruia (Essar Group – Marwari), Jindals (Punjabi), Nanda (Punjab), Jhunjhunwala (Investor – Marwari), Sundaram group, TTK Group, EID parry Group (All Chettyar), Mafatlal and Lalbhai group (of Standard Mills and Arvind Mills fame – Gujarati). The Marwaris of India are almost replica of Jews in America so far as their business practices are concerned.

    Business is no longer monopoly of few nowadays. Thanks to Jawaharlal Nehru, who brought IIT into India in late 50s, who produced gems like Infosys and thousands of South Indian professionals in software industry, Business conditions have changed for better. Even Mahatma Gandhi would have difficulty to keep pace with the modern technology. He too would have used his webpage, emails, screencast, videocast and other forms of media on TV after seeing Hazare.

    Other things may be of historical importance good for high end researchers.

  136. Sub: Physical Silver Demand
    Dear Anil Sir,
    This is just to inform you that for last 2 days there is unprecedented demand  for physical Silver in our region. There is sever shortage for physical silver & delivery is promised after 8-10 days. Even cash rate is now higher then MCX price by Rs 500. When Silver was at Rs. 48500/50000 there was no euphoria like this & even price was quoted below MCX price.
    Parag, Surat, India, 12th April,2011

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 12, 2011
    Thanks. All worships rising sun. Silver may reach Rs 72,000 in India before June 2011

  137. India, Stocks, Mahindra Satyam, Reg: Results

    Hi Anil,
    I read this on Moneycontrol – “Mahindra Satyam Mar qtr PAT seen down by 12% at Rs 98cr”
    link – http://indiaearnings.moneycontrol.com/sub_india/compnews.php?autono=535373
    “Emkay Global Financial Services has come out with its earning estimates on IT sector for the quarter ended March 2011. According to the research firm, Mahindra Satyam quarter sales are expected to go up by 5% at Rs 1342 crore, quarter-on-quarter, (QoQ) basis.The company’s net profit is expected to go down by 12% at Rs 98.4 crore on QoQ basis.”
    Do you see this as negative for Mahindra Satyam share price in near term?

    Hemant, USA
    Apr 11 2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 11, 2011
    Not really. Much depends on how many “one time charge off Expenses” which brings down the PAT. The markets usually consider normal operating profits. The normal profit margin in high tech firms is usually 30% (Gross) which was about 20% for Satyam due to higher turnover of employees. It has since stabilized. Worse is over for Satyam and it is on growth path again. If you take annual turnover, it works out little over Rs 5000 crores and even modest 21% as profit margin against industry’s standard of 28% to 30%, means that the company generated over Rs 1000 crores of gross operating profit after wages and salary payment. It works out to Rs 16/share.

    The only thing that may hurt earnings to software exporters is stronger rupee which chops off nearly 4% of Net Profits before and after Tax. The fact that the stock has been quite strong on rising volume indicates that the real profitability of the company is intact and in fact growing. Such inside information comes out slowly and steadily to the market in covert fashion, and as such the strength of the stock on rising volume is a good indicator. Further, Satyam is debt free company with lots of cash. The high court order freezing almost Rs 1300 crores shows the level of cash the company has which works out to almost Rs 20 per share.

    I normally do not seek out the software stocks which have lot of hypes. However, in Satyam I ventured into it because the company was really a debt free and is relatively much larger company compared to other software giants. It could be rated at least 3rd largest software company in India. It is also in safe hand of Mahindras who have enormous reputation.

    if you are worried about the earnings of Satyam, you may sell out and buy back only after the official result is out.

  138. Dear Sir,

    I am not able to see the link for STOCK OBSERVATORY, Please help me.



    11April 2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 11, 2011
    It is already there. Here is the link http://www.anilselarka.com/indian-stock-observatory-2011-updated-142011/

    Alternatively, go to the
    Right Side Bar > Pages > Stock Observatory India


    Dear Anil,

    What are your views on Solar Energy companies ? Would you recommend buying them for a 3-5 year investment time frame with a good return expectation ?

    Mukesh, Hong Kong, April 11 ‘ 2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 11, 2011
    Yes, it is the future but until proper storage batteries are invented to store the solar power, the technology may remain expensive.

    The technology is still in infancy stage. We do not know which company will succeed. I need some time to search those companies. In USA, GE or General Electric has embarked upon huge expansion in solar energy sector with $600 million investments. There are many smaller names, but I am not sure of their credentials.

  140. India stock Hindustan Copper/Sterlite Industries

    Respected Sir,

    What is the target / time frame for both the stocks.Are these stocks not going to be affected by your predicted correction. Sir, please do advice as I am a bit confused.

    Lakmi Lucknow India 11/4/2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 11, 2011
    In stock observatory column we do not discuss the fundamentals in details nor the targets on long terms. All stocks correct in market correction. We can not write more than what is already written in the stock observatory column which responds to changing conditions on daily basis.

  141. India Stock, PTC India Financial Services
    I guess the following link may give some insight into the Company’s financial
    Rajesh Kannan D, Chennai, India

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 11, 2011
    Confirms my earlier assessment. Buy upto 10,000 shares on long term basis. The company will also pay good dividend in future. I expect dividend yield about 4% in future based on current prices, and will go to over 8% in 3 years. This stock is better than bank deposits at the moment.

  142. India – Multiple Stocks
    Dear Anilji,
    Seeking your valuable advice for the following stocks:
    a) Allied Digital – 200 @ 98.6 – CMP 93.45
    b) Elgi Equipment – 500 + 500 (1:1) @ 75 (Effective cost 37.50) – CMP 92
    c) Welspun Corp – 200 @ 264 – CMP 213.50
    Please advice how long do I hold these stocks or should I swap it into some other stocks.
    Ajay Dand, Mumbai, India.

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 12, 2011
    Stay with them until April is over. Buy Welspun – where were you when it deeply corrected?

  143. Stock Observatory
    Dear Sir,
    Thanks for starting this. Very helpful.

  144. Sub : INDIA/US Budget deal/Buy Gold

    Dear Anil Jee,

    I wish to invest 1.5 lakhs in Gold.Can you please let me know when will

    be the US Budget deal Announced ? If it is to be announced in April 2011

    itself & as a result if the US Index rises, do you see a temporary

    correction in metals in April itself before they resume for their higher

    onward journey in May, especially Gold ? Please Advise.

    Best Regards,
    Vandana Kothari
    Udaipur (Rajasthan)-India
    11April 2011

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 11, 2011
    Buy gold at around $1435. If dollar improves, all metals get hurt. There is still no de-linking of dollar with the metals as yet. In India, weakness in rupee will neutralize the effect of lower gold prices internationally. Read both local rupee and gold price in dollar simultaneously to make judgement.

    My previous advises and comments stand good, do not ask me to repeat the same. go through old comments. Regarding US Budget Deal, there are headlines in every news paper. You are expected to have this general knowledge.

  145. India- Bullion- gold or silver?

    Sir i read your comment on ritesh of 10th april , I am a little confused as in what to buy now as u say gold may jump 40-100 $ in a day and u also predict silver shooting up by 10-12% . On MCX the silver expires on 5th may and gold on 4th June. what do you suggest me to buy ?

    At present i have 1 lot of silver holding from level of 56K , what do u suggest me to do here.

    Thanks & Regards

    Kalidas Says … Monday, April 11, 2011
    I do not advise on futures. I can only give the possible directions which you may interpret the way you want.

  146. STOCK OBSERVATORY INDIA – updated 11-04-2011


    it is strarted from today. It will appear regularly in future. However, latest post will be on the top. It will be a monthly series. Click “Stock Observatory India – updated 11-04-2011 from the sidebar.




  147. India Stock India cements
    Respected Sir,
    I have 100 shares of India Cement,purchased at Rs.150/- two years back, CMP is Rs.100/- Should I exit around these levels and book my losses and switch to other stock or re-enter the same at lower levels on correction as per your prediction  around October.I am totally confused.Please guide me.
    Thankyou Sir
    Lakshmi Lucknow India 10/4/2011

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, April 10, 2011
    Stay with it for the time being. Cement companies in South India are doing relatively better. If at all you want to switch, sell India Cement (100 shares) and buy 400 shares of Ruchi Infra.

  148. Silver – Blow Off When to sell and buy back (trading opportunity):

    Dear Sir,

    According to the recent caption on the home page “Ahh Silver” where you forecasted a 15% types of blow off that may come anytime soon … what do you recommend to your very early followers … like me … who got in physical silver at 18000 INR per KG … and currently holding over 32 KGs of physical silver as well as 20 KGs futures silver at (30K / KG ave).  Shall I switch off couple of KGs to IOC in this mini blow off phase. I currently hold 400 Shares of IOC and 300 share of HPCL. 

    If yes, what will be potential downside of any correction that comes now … since it been a hell of a ride from 20 USD to 40 USD with no major correction.

    With your guidance i have made 20 Lacs in last 2.5 years with a investment of 7 lacs Rs. Hope to make 1 Crore in next 3 years again with your guidance. God Bless You. 

    Thanks, Ritesh Bhansali, Varanasi, 10-4-2011

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, April 10, 2011
    Few factors to note:
    USD Index might rise due to budget deal which may correct the prices of all metals temporarily.

    Selling in strong rally:

    1. If USD Index drops below 74, or better 73.50, currency market will be roiled. Even Rupee can rise, and rise in silver prices in rupees may be buffered to that extent
    2. The silver could rise by 15% in dollar terms, and less in rupee terms (about 10% to 12%) from current level.
    3. It will be easiler to sell Silver futures because the dealers in physical markets may show only quotes but may not deal or quote very wide spread between buying and selling to reduce their trading risks.
    4. Focus on selling in futures market. It will be difficult to catch the highest level as there would be swings from one extreme to another. Enter the staggered orders at 42.85, 43.50 45.10 and 46.35 and in Indian Rupees terms against above levels. (you can see them in real time on http://thebulliondesk.com and pull down the India chapter from the menu). Do not be rigid with the levels.
    5. Sell some physical silver only when the silver prices are relatively stable in physical market (after the storm).
    6. If you are able to manage to sell at higher level as above, enter buy back order at $36.85, 38.75, 41.10, 43.50 depending on level at which you sold. In Indian Rupee terms, if one manages to sell at Rs 65000 or 68,500 in above sucker rally, buy back when the level is 63,500, 61,000 and 58,500
    7. Gold may jump anywhere from $40 to $100 in one single day as we predicted long time ago. This time, the gold will continue its bull run to $1685 easily by end of May or early part of June (before June 7)
    8. Use proceeds to buy IOC (600< 345), HPCL (400@<365), Hindustan Copper 300 at CMP, Sterlite Industries 1000 at CMP at that time.
    9. Major corrections in commodity market will come from collapse of ETF market. Await my article on ETF in next 10 days.
    10. With regard to your book profit, please note that the profit is yours if it is in your pocket. When the Silver hits $80 as per our original projections, sell 80% and do not return to buying it again. Search for next target
  149. Silver first target hit

    The first target predicted by you long back for silver i.e. Rs.60,000/- has been hit in MCX ( it is more in jewellery shops ).  Congratulations  and thanks on your superb prediction long time before any analyst.  Watching for the next target of Rs.75,000/-.

    VC Sekar, Dehi, India

    Kalidas Says … Sunday, April 10, 2011
    Dealers prices will be higher by their margin of 3% to 5% and also by 2% due to VAT if one insists on receipt.


  150. BBC Flash news
    Dear sir
    Your prediction is coming true.

    BBC flash news: Japan government confirms radiation leak at fukushima nuclear plants. Asian countries should take necessary precautions. If rain comes, remain indoors first 24hours, close doors n windows, swab neck skin with beta-dine where thyroid area is, radiation hits thyroid first. Take extra precautions, radiation may hitPhilippines starting 4pm (Pinas time) today
    Swastika , Kolkatta. India

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 09, 2011
    It is a hoax. Such “fake” news are circulating for almost a month by now. Do not bother about such news nor spread the news unless you have personally seen the flash news on proper BBC Channel.

  151. India-bullion-major cause of correction?


    Sir do u think this would severely pull down the prices of silver and gold??

    Thanks & Regards


    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 09, 2011
    No, When God sells Gold (Temple to Devotees), nothing happens because they sell only if there were buyers. Some devotees may be willing to pay even premium because it is coming from the doorsteps of God (temple).50% of 410kgs lying with the temples is just 200 kgs, which is less than 10% of daily consumption in India. (India imports and consumes over 800 tons of gold every year, that is, nearly 2.2 tons per day. that is, 200 kgs is just 10% of daily sale.) We are not adding domestic gold supply which is more than imported gold. In that case, the proposed sale is less than 5% of daily demand of gold in India.

    Gold prices are determined by international prices which is based on investment demand and supply, and also by fear of inflation, oil prices etc.

    Not by what a temple will do or will not do.

  152. India, Asset allocation Planning.
    My Age : 42 , Wife: House wife , Daughter 12 yr. & Son 10 yr.
    Liability: Nil ( self Office & House )
    Self Business: Income sufficient to take care of Annual Needs / Expenses & Leisure. Plan to work for more 15 yr. ( ie. Till Age 57+)

    Rented Property Income : Monthly 75,000/-
    Risk tolerance: Ready to take risk.
    Ready for investment with longer time horizon ,
    Advice diff. Asset allocation on % basis on below & other
    Property: Commercial / Residential
    Commodity: Gold / Silver / Other
    Equity: Script names
    Bank FD :
    Bonds /MF etc.

    Rashesh , Mumbai, India. 8-4-2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 08, 2011
    Do not write or post in all bold letters. We corrected it to make it normal.

    We do not provide Portfolio Allocation Planning services here. It is a paid service. Write to readers.kalidas@gmail.com for more information.

    Use this column to ask question for any asset where the investor is trapped or confused about. This is a free service.

  153. India Stock, PTC India Financial Services
    I know you dont like Power related Companies.  What is your view on the above said Stock?
    Rajesh Kannan, Chennai, India

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 08, 2011
    Your link does not work. However, it is worth taking a chance because not much is known about the financial of this company. Since it is recent IPO of very large power utility, the dividend pay out will be also better. Go for it with investment upto Rs 1 lakh or 5000 shrs to start with and buy more progressively after each quarter result.

  154. India, General, A request
    Dear Sir,
    Frequent references to your mortality depresses me(and a lot of your other readers and fans). You had made a promise not to make a reference to it and I would like you to keep to that promise. I pray to the almighty that you continue to share your Knowledge with all of us for many more years to come
    With regards

    V.G.Bhat,Pune, India, 08 April 2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 08, 2011
    I do not know why the readers feel depressed at some casual remarks on life when I am advancing in my age. It is a fact of life and in this column, we are mostly discussing facts and reality, not fiction. In any case, your point is well noted. It sometime slips from my mind.

    the page u asked me to see for gold and silver predictions is not loading,following is what appears:
    Archive for December, 2009
    Gold $6400, Silver $80 – Why would they be at
    with 39 comments

    Fatal error: Call to undefined function: simplexml_load_string() in /home/jit/public_html/anilselarka/wp-content/plugins/polldaddy/polldaddy-org.php on line 381
    Mihir Shah,Ahmedabad,India,4/8/11

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 08, 2011
    I will revert. It works on my Admin page but does not on the blog page which is strange.

    download two articles from ScribD1 and Part two – Gold $6400 Silver $80 from ScribD2

    They are PDF article. Download them and use as reference.

  156. Dear Sir  Looks like Satyam will be winning the Tax case as you were mentioning



    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 08, 2011
    Government knows that it will lose case decisively, and this is why it withdrew the case. Most of the lower courts still appear to court the favors from Central Government in the hope of deciding judge receiving the promotion by selling out the justice.

    Corrupt India!

    though i myself am like you a”silver bull”,however many people are questioning the fundmental reasons behind such a sharp rally in silver over the last one year and many people are also calling for a crudeoil-like crash (i.e crude’s crash from 147 to 40$) in silver. As i am not a day trader and am a positional and long term trader, please can you tell me whether investing in Silver for a period of 6 months would be a fruitful investment?
    Please give me an approximate target for silver in dollar term according to your knowledgable insight by 31st September 2011?
    Mihir, Ahmedabad,India,8/4/11

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 08, 2011
    Read my old article “Gold $6400 Silver $80” published about 18 months ago. It is still valid and people have made over 100% gains in both metals.

  158. India, Petronet Lng, Future Outlook AND Whether to Purchase at CMP or Not

    Dear Sir,
    I have Sold all my holding(1000 Shares) in Petronet between 112-116,Originally purchased at an average of 90.
    Now the CMP-130, Do you advise to buy at this price or wait for the correction. I am asking this because Petronet does not fall with the market normally?  

    And what is future outlook of this Company for the period of 3-5 years of time frame and do you think that this stock can also give high returns(LIKE OMC) if holding period is 5 years or more?

    Sakchi, Delhi, India

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 08, 2011
    Read my stock report on Petronet which you may find from stockwatch column. It is old report which still holds good. No comments on entering this stock again after selling at low prices and buying at high prices. It did come down to Rs 104 or about, where were you at that time?

    My present call is to sell 90% of your all holdings by the end of April 2011 and then wait for another 4 months to enter. Until such time, do your normal business and do not bother to dabble into stock market.

  159. Sub:INDIA/Sub:Commodity/Buy Nickel/Copper

    Dear Anil Jee,

    I have gained the first time in silver following your views to hold it  & have just sold it today at $ 40.00.Now will you advise me buying Nickel/Copper at this minute ? Nickel was down almost to Rs.1120 during the last week but has recovered again, CMP 1208.00.

    Please let me have your views. I have found almost nowhere your replies towards purchase of base metals during March-April 2011 in this blog. 

    Thanking you a lot in Advance,

    Anjana Dugar
    Udaipur (Rajasthan)-313001,INDIA
    08April 2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 08, 2011
    I have not followed Nickel for a while. There is general rally for almost all metals and soft commodities. I can not single out any of them. Make your own research. I am extremely negative on almost all ferrous and non ferrous metal group due to acute specter of recession and rising interest rates. I have already mentioned about this long time before in this column and this is why I gave the sell call in October after which the markets dropped by almost 3000 points. It has recovered but it is a false rally.

    In India, the metal prices were rising due to stronger market overseas. Since the rupee is rising, the gain in local currency will be subdued. Unless you are operating overseas, there is no point of my commenting otherwise.

  160. India-Futures- Open Interest

    Sir i want to know the open interest figures that i see on my terminal (ODIN) are for the day or they are the total open positions till the date for that very contact??
    IS there any specific web site where we can source the OI of international markets??

    Thanks & Regards

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 08, 2011
    I do not follow future markets in India and also overseas – my interest in gold and silver was specific, so I followed them for a while. I have no idea for Open Interest position in India. Contact MCX website for more details or ask your broker.

    There are many sited for which I have made comments for International sites. NYMEX, COMEX, CBOT are famous sites. Also ICE is prominent sites. for general readers’ point of view, use http://ino.com and learn all markets and quotes from there. It may take about 7 days for you to familiarize.

  161. INDIA, Stocks, Essar Oil, Sub: No clarity it’s speculation with crude price
    Crude prices are rising and essaroil (CMP 132.85) also rising. As per your prediction to some one on board was it should be right price around 89. However, why it is going up when crude prices are rising. And also airline stocks going up when crude is going up. Why these things happening?  

    If you don’t mind may I know your Rashi (zodiac sign as per Indian astrology) and Nakshatra (birth star). I guess you belongs to Aries and possibly bharani star??

    Thanks and Regards,

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 07, 2011
    Airlines stocks were hammered down a lot and were trading at lowest level in months. If they have recovered, it can not be said that they are rising. The market is also rising, so everything will rise somewhat. Rupee is rising which is good for oil and airline stocks. Further, Kingfisher Airlines has escaped the bankruptcy and SBI/ICICI finally were forced to swap debt into equity. That was considered as good news for the industry. So the Airline stocks went up. Have you seen the weighing scale (manual) where if one side becomes heavy, it goes down and other goes up. similarly for any stocks, you have to weigh both scales, and see which is heavy and which is light.

    Essar Oil is not only refiner but also a part producer of oil (like Cairns) producing about 200,000 barrels of oil per day to my knowledge. So oil price rise also benefits it partly. Further, it is trying to buy refineries from Shell and the group got almost $5 billions from Vodaphone as final settlement. It is flush with cash, so the stock is getting push somewhat. The stock is not very expensive, and at the same time, not so cheap. If you wish you may buy some shares but I for one am staying away. Not every reader need to follow my strategy. I am not young enough to take risk at this age when I have to manage my own affairs from my savings, not from earnings.

    Are you an astrologer too? Yes, I am Aries. Anyway, I am borne in Aries, on 18/10/1948 in Ghatkopar, Mumbai at 10:00 PM at night (on the night of Sharad Purnima), Mithuna lagna, Moon and Rahu in Aries (11th house) , Shukra in Sinha (3rd house), Mercury (4 th house), Guru in seventh house, and Mars in sixth house, Surya and Ketu in 5th house (Libra), opposite Moon and Rahu in Aries, all houses counted from Lagna Rashi (Mithuna). I do not know my nakshatra which is available in my horoscope which I will have dig it out. but since I am near the end of my life, I do not want to know more about my future which is more up in the heaven than on this planet.

    Silver’s rise has been stellar to say the least and is showing no signs of slowing down.I have bought 4kg at 41000rs, 4kg at 51000rs.I am planning to keep silver till end of this quarter as i shall need the funds in july.Sir,please can you tell me whether this is a good price to add,I have fund to buy 12kg more at CMP.will this be a right price or should i wait for a correction? 
    Mihir, Ahmedabad,India,8/4/11.

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 07, 2011
    You buy most when any item is consolidation at lower level. When the item is on continuous rise due to upward momentum, and if you wish to gamble by joining those momentum players, you buy 25% of what you own, do not double or treble your quantity.

    When we ride a train which has just departed the station (consolidation level), we relax and enjoy the ride. We do not ride a running train in which case, we might catch the train or fall over and meet the accident.

    At the moment of this writing, Silver has just touched near day high (39.94) and trading at 39.92 in USA. (May be Asian trading has just started). Over last 4 days, there were players who were covering shorts, and the open interest came down from high of 76,000 to 72,000 but again have started going up again which means that the metal is being shorted at higher level. May be they will succeed, may be they will not.

    Two factors that are weighing in favour of gold and silver and against the stock markets are (1) The Republicans are not relenting to pass the interim deficit financing limit (debt limit) which may shut down the entire nation, that is, United States, which may hurt its rating. And another, USD Index is precarious close to 74 level, it is now at 75.33, near few weeks low. If it corrects by 2% due to political sensitive decision such as extension of time for debt limit, it could play havoc in the credit market, and Gold/Silver could have huge spike in their prices. If debt limit is extended, then there is strong possibility that USD Index may spike by at least 2% to 5% which may hurt almost all currencies and also the Gold and Silver prices.

    My scenario on Silver and Gold is playing out exactly as I had forecast in the beginning of March and end of February. If there is sudden spike in the above prices, in silver and gold, I would be a seller at $43.50 or more depending on news sensitivity as stated above.

    Most of the people or readers just focus on the result, that is, silver is going up, but do not have means to read the causes as to why it is going up, and what will bring it down. I look at them because I am experienced into this game. Show me a single person who has been so accurate in the actual movement of stocks, and gold/silver prices. They just tell you the reason of Libya war or debt crisis in Portugal, Ireland or Greece, which have nothing to do with the rise. The rise is due to settlement period and time and other mathematical factors of demand and supply.

    Please be guided accordingly.

  163. Downloadable March Series of CMCA

    Click the following links to download the March 2011 series of Confused Mind Clear Answers.

    PDF Version
    CMCA 2011-03 March_PDF (File with clickable links) 

    HTML Versions
    CMCA 2011-03 March_html  (can be opened in your browser in continuous running form.


    Kalidas (Author),
    April 7, 2011


  164. India, Investments, Reg: IOC & Silver
    Respected Sir!
    I will be getting about 2L Rs next week and I would like to deploy the full amount into IOC and Silver.
    As of now I hold:
    Satyam (1000@67.29) CMP-75.9
    IOC (150@308.5) CMP-335
    ONGC (100@302) CMP-291.85
    I understand that you have suggested 36.75 as the entry point for silver. Kindly suggest if I should also wait for around 37.00 level in Silver and also do you think that we will get to see 300 levels in IOC again?
    Ashish | Bangalore, India | 07-Apr-2011

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 07, 2011
    Buy more of IOC in correction, still better if you buy after its FY 31/3/2011 result is out. Actual performance may determine the fate of IOC level.
    Silver may not correct much at the moment. Buy even now.

  165. Dear Mr.Kalidas,
    What you suggest for holding $$. I have around $45,000.
    Do you think, we will ever get to position where $ were evaluated at Rs 47-48?
    Should I settle now at Rs 42-43?

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 07, 2011
    Append your signature and title your message. Read the CMCA Article again before you post anything.

  166. property in gurgaon/india

    Dear Anil Ji,

    I was in the process of looking at buying a property for my residence but i wont be staying in it for next 4-5 years but wanted to buy now or unless beyond my reach.After I read your comments, Please guide.

    Tha property location which i liked is in Gurgaon 8 km from international airport.Price is app 78 lacs.

    1) there is a ready apartment available on finance
    2) there is an apartment under construction available on construction linked payment plan.
    3) or the 3rd option is not to buy property at all 

    Ravi Bhatia  Delhi  07/04/2011

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 07, 2011
    I am not familiar with Gurgaon. However, based on current overall national environment, I would prefer Option 3 until Mid October, 2011

    Further, the property is not preferred near Airport because of height regulations and also whether the property is in the landing path of the Air planes. It causes lot of noise pollution. Avoid that path and better be a buyer about 3 miles away on either side of the path. The reason is that such path and neighboring area do not permit higher FSI (Floor Space Index). This factor may be given less weighting if the area is already populated.

    I was borne in Mumbai (Ghatkopar) and my place of stay was just below the landing path. The planes would whiz through every 15 minutes, trembling all windows (now the building and furniture quality is better so there is less trembling and noise). Even so, the property prices were about 15% lower on our side (west) than on the East side. These are long term effects and may not be relevant while buying property for short term investment.

    Strictly on financial basis, the properties in Mumbai, Chennai and Delhi are overpriced and due for correction. The builders and developers in Delhi are in severe financial squeeze which may force them to liquidate existing property portfolio at discounted rates soon.With dollar dumping, food commodity prices rising (look at corn, wheat, soybean and in India pulses like moong, tuvar daal, peas etc) and oil prices too inching higher and higher, the MCX exchange practice of allowing cash based settlement will translate them into higher prices in India too, even if there is bumper record food production. The only mitigating factor now is the rise in rupee value which has deflationary effect on inflation.

    As result, I do not see abatement in the interest rates in India which will severely affect the markets (stocks) and property market in particular. If you are buying property under construction, make sure that the builder/developer is reliable and would not run away leaving you with the property in pillars and slabs.

    Wait till Mid October, 2011 is my advice to you.

  167. SPICE JET
    CMP  45
      I bought 2000 SPICE JET @ 43.5 yesterday I want to hold this for tgt of  60-62 rs. What is ur advice? help me

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, April 07, 2011
    You bought only yesterday, why do you need my advice today? for confirmation? I have long mentioned that Spicejet price target is over Rs 200 in less than 2 years. Looks like you are new to this column and reading it for the first time.

    STAY WITH IT if at all you need my advice. Ideal sale level would be 120 to start with, but again, it depends on many factors discussed in the past.

    Finally, write proper English. Do not write in short hand or abbreviation or post it through mobile phones. I do not like tgt for target and ur for your, and thnks for thanks.

  168. India, MTNL – Impact of the news on merger of BSNL with ITI and MTNL


    I have MTNL shares 4850 nos at purchase price of Rs 49.15 (CMP Rs 50.10). What is the impact to share price of MTNL with the news of merger of BSNL with ITI and MTNL . Link here

    Bobby, Singapore

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 06, 2011
    It should be good in medium and long term. MTNL is debt free and also has license to operate in two metro city – Delhi and Mumbai. Merger with BSNL and ITI will create mammoth enterprise which may become an Index stock later on. It will enhance the appeal to Index based funds. However, the details are too sketchy to infer anything. It may be noted that all these companies being over 50 years old, have large property assets bought at fraction of price and will have massive upward revaluation if desired. These companies will become Asset based play.

    In any case, the merger talks bring an excitement which may work for the benefit of these companies. Stay with your position.

  169. JPY levels against USD

    Dear Kalidas ji,

    Below are your comments to one of the reader.It says all curencies will rise execpt yen. but my understanding from your articles was that yen is going to rise sahrply once it hit the level of 85-86.

    “”Thus, if the Index breaks through 74, especially 73.50, it will not take long for dollar to slide to 71 level or by 5 points or nearly 7%. Almost all metals and currencies will rise with exception of Japanese Yen where the Japanese government is seen buying dollars against yen””.

    I have bought yen at 85 level.pls confirm shall i keep on doing it with further slide in yen towards 86.


    Raj, Delhi, 6/04/2011

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 06, 2011

    Yes, I think it should work. The Yen went as low as 76 and then now slid to 85, nearly 10%. Normally, the currency moves are in increment of 10% band on either side. If it weakens further, one can buy it more. However, keep the difference in price in buying to 1.35 yen every time. That is, when you bought at 85, next level of buying may be 86.35 or so. Also, do not work on averages. When one position becomes profitable and the currency moves either way, take the profit of profitable position. In short, treat each trade as separate trade.

  170. Kalidas,

    Need your advise whether to sell or hold the following stocks-
    2.Bharti Airtel
    3.Mahindra Satyam
    4.Spice Jet

    Also do you recommend buying Gold or Silver at current prices ?

    New Delhi
    6th April 11

    Kalidas Says … Wednesday, April 06, 2011
    Hold them all until their final result for YE 31/3/2011 and quarterly result for same date are out. We will decide then. No need to sell them now, it is only a question of about 2 weeks from now.

    Gold and Silver are still a good buy, but use weakness as opportunity. Use Gold at $1410 and Silver $36.75 as possible entry point. You may use the CMP also, but I always buying in correction so that investors do have some target above their buy level which may serve as cushion.

  171. India- Bullion- Effect of rupee rise?

    Sir gold and silver are directly proportional, gold and USD is inversely proportional and even USD and INR are inversely proportional . Then don’t you feel gold/silver should have shot up with the rise in INR and dollar weakening , but it’s not happening??
    Please Explain

    Thanks and Regards

    Kalidas says….Tuesday, 5th April, 2011
    Those days are gone. Gold and dollar are no longer invesrsely proportional. When $ weakens and gold/silver rise, and rupee also firms up, then why gold/silver should show proportionate rise? Explain to me Gold and Silver price will underperform in India compared to overseas market due to rise in rupee value in $ terms. The underperformance will be pegged to the extent of rupee appreciation.

  172. Dear Sir ,
    What is this mailing list and newsletter link that we see on the site .
    Could you please clarify the idea behind theses ?
    Sachin , Pune , India .

  173. COAL INDIA, RELIANCE: Sell or Hold
    Kalidas ji,
    As you have recommended, I am selling most of my holdings except OMC, Satyam and Spicejet.
    I have the following stocks which I seek your advice whether to sell (to buyback during a correction) or hold
    Coal India: BUY PRICE 246. QTY: 199. CMP: 358
    Reliance: BUY PRICE 959. QTY: 63 CMP: 1045
    KeeYes, Tokyo, Japan

    Kalidas Says………….Tuesday, 5 April, 2011
    No need to sell the above stocks. Coal India may become a very strong buy after the nuclear disaster.
    May be you can sell RIL only after its final result is known towards the end of April. Hold it until then. It is also on my Strong Buy List now.

  174. Indian Stocks – Seeking advice on selling to book loss or any other action!
    Dear Sir
    I have a portfolio with all positions currently in negative. I request you to kindly suggest appropriate action on them.
    Mahindra Sathyam – 3000@88. CMP 70.60
    Quantum Gold ETF – 185 @ 863. CMP 1007
    IOC – 360 @ 375. CMP 325
    HPCL – 250 @ 410. CMP 350
    BPCL – 80 @ 672. CMP 595
    Ruchi Infrastructure – 1350 @ 30. CMP 25.60
    UCO Bank – 260 @ 58. CMP 118
    ZEE News – 2400 @ 14.60. CMP 12.25
    Spice Jet – 600 @ 38. CMP 42.50
    Ashtavinayak – 3000 @ 8.60. CMP 7.01
    IFCI – 300 @ 53. CMP 56.60
    With Regards
    Swastika. Kolkatta. India

    Kalidas Says ………. Tuesday, April 3, 2011
    I do not provide portfolio solution. However, do the following:
    SELL UCO Bank 160 at CMP and realize cash
    BUY Spicejet 600 at CMP or in correction. The stock may be going up due to higher profits expected to be announced soon.
    For all OMC – Wait for the final result and last quarterly numbers. Do nothing for the time being
    Do nothing for others including Satyam.

  175. INDIA, Stock, Reg: Forecast and Yes bank/Uco Bank
    Respected Sir,
    Based your answers to others, market is going to fall soon. I was not able to catch the buy price recommended for UCO and Yes bank. Do you think I can still wait for buy price (92 UCO and 230 Yes bank) or you have other price suggestions.
    MSK, Atlanta, USA
    Apr 05 2011

    Kalidas Says ………. Tuesday, April 3, 2011
    Wait. I do not give levels lightly.

  176. INDIA, STOCKS, SPICEJET, Sub: it is in rising phase now, should go or not?

    Spicejet is climbing up now. Today rised 7% in last hour. As you said, if it start going up, it will go up with 20% up circuit, should we buy now or wait for 33??

    Thanks and Regards,
    Krishna, Hyderabad
    Date : 5th April 2011

    Kalidas Says ………. Tuesday, April 5, 2011
    There may be some profit taking. If the volume does not come down, then buy small. Almost all factors are against spicejet – interest rates, higher oil prices etc. So there is no strong need to chase the stock. If the stock has not advanced more than 10%, then you may buy small with more in correction.

    Further, do not post queries about any stock without following our norms. I do not like frequent violators. When the stock has moved by 7% or so, why don’t you write the specific numbers that it has advanced from so and so level to so and so level. Also mention the volume. I really hate absurd enquiries.

  177. My hong kong visit (off topic)
    Dear Kalidas Sir, this weekend I am coming to Hong Kong for a month.
    I believe you have shifted to US currently, but any chance you would be in HK within this month .
    Would be fortunate if I could spend at least 15 mnts with you. Also please suggest what can I buy in HK which is cheaper than in Mumbai e.g. Apple i-pad, SONY Bravia LCD TV..or any good thing which you would want to advise for me to take as moment for my HK visit.
    $amir , Mumbai 04/05

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 05, 2011
    You are going to Hong Kong and live there by one month, spending on your travel and stay expenses over Rs 3 lakhs (over $ 6000). What makes difference in buying IPad at Rs 20,000 or 25,000. I took a brand new Toshiba LCD TV to India having 42″ width and after all hassles found it to be available almost near same price or even better in India with 2 years warranty. Also make sure that I-Pad can work in India because Apple has history of selling products which are operable only in certain designated markets. Visit Chung King Mansion to see whether some China made Mobile phones can be bought (latest being Android phones) that can be used in India. You may get China made Android phones at fraction of the price. Yes, there are no warranties.

    If at all you want to buy something really cheaper and good, better buy Laptop from Star Ferry or Wanchai Computer Markets. They offer better value than in India. Yes, you can enjoy good food in Hong Kong – I am starving to almost death in United States.

    I am in United States, not in Hong Kong any more. I will return there in early part of June or in August as I am expected to get my Green Card in middle of May.

    Goldman Sachs has acquired Benchmark Asset Management recently.
    I find this sudden interest from Goldman Sachs (known for its aggressive approach to making money) in a mutual fund company known for its passively managed Funds & ETF’s (in other words, for its ‘Hands-Off’ approach), very strategic because Benchmark has the most liquid Gold ETF (GOLDBEES, CMP = 2023) amongst all the Gold ETF’s offered in the Indian Market and is trying to set up a Silver ETF (permission awaited from SEBI, which I think will now be expedited due to this acquisition by GS) in India.
    I think GS (and it’s big brother JPMC) will start using the physical Gold (and later Silver) from these ETF’s to back its COMEX Shorts and thus start playing the same game of defrauding ETF investors in Indian Markets also.
    When would be the best time for to converting our ETF (i.e. paper) holding’s to physical holding’s?
    If possible, please suggest this swap when you next expect a sudden take-down of Gold prices on COMEX (before the Non-farm Payroll report maybe…), so that some of your students can use the opportunity to payback GS & JPMC for (in the words of Lloyd Blankfein, Chairman of GS) doing ‘God’s Work’.
    Ashish Dandekar, Mumbai, India

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 05, 2011
    I did not understand your question very clearly. Goldman Sachs is basically a hedge fund operators with two distinct operations – client side and proprietary side. It makes more money from proprietary trades. It tells clients one thing and does on its own something else. This is why it is facing rough weather in United States.

    Further, most of leaders of Goldman Sachs in Treasury department have gone – last was Treasury Secretary Paulson. They obviously got the inside information of major policy decisions, which could be used for profitable proprietary trades.

    ETF is nothing but a mutual fund in indirect sense except that a mutual fund has number of stocks or items in their position whereas ETF is almost single focused item. such as gold, silver, metals, country etc. Many hedge fund brokers buy or sell the asset item in one market and hedge it with counter position on clients side in other markets, so that they can not be related due to different jurisdictions of each SEC or SFC.

    I do not believe in ETF, so do not make attempt to invest into them in advanced stage of its operations. It is a paper after all, and I as very old man and conservative player, do not like to touch paper any more. it is different for youngsters.

    In investment, I have learnt something very hard way- If we can not have control over our investment, better ignore that product. I may be buying Gold ETF but have no control what my fund manager or ETF will do, will it also buy the gold or lease it out to someone else, as even Federal Reserve has done by leasing out over 6200 tones of gold to outsiders as disclosed in my book.

    I do not read much into Goldman’s foray into Indian mutual fund industry. It is very large company, once nearly bankrupt, survived by inglorious attempt by its former boss who served as Treasury Secretary. The people in India have lost faith in domestic mutual funds who gave them meager return or lost money. This is why Mutual Fund industry in India have lost billions of dollars in withdrawals and wanted the government to support them by coming out with some incentives in budget proposals. I invested in UTI Petro Fund when Reliance was at Rs 340 and almost entire range of gas and oil stocks were nearly at bottom. They have all gone up by 300% to 700% with income and free shares, but my lousy UTI Fund manager gave me only 7% per year return in 7 years. They changed the names in the process and also changed the focus by including Infra structure which lousy SEBI readily approved it. When they find that they lost heavily in high end infra structure, and find no takers, they sell back to their other mutual funds to recover the money and we as mutual fund investors lose out.

    I remember my childhood story of “two quarreling cats over a piece of food which a monkey tried to intervene for proper distribution by eating one larger piece on one side and then on other side to balance each other, with final result of entire pie eaten by the monkey leaving nothing for the cats”. Replace Cats with Investors and Monkey with Investment Manager/fund manager/ hedge fund operators.

  179. INDIA, Sensex, Future Outlook

    Today I received a report from Angel Broking regarding the future outlook of the market where they see 15% upside. Is it possible? I am currently invested about Rs. 1lac in Satyam, IOC, HPCL, ONGC, Cairns, SpiceJet. Should I exit or stay? My view is for 12 months.

    Neha Sharma, Udaipur, Rajasthan, INDIA 05-Apr-11 05:12 PM

    The content is pasted below:

    Latest developments related to food inflation, fiscal deficit and interest rates look positive and we believe improvement is likely in these macro indicators going forward. More importantly, the market has been largely range-bound for entire FY2011 (the Sensex is up just about 10%), even though earnings growth has been reasonably healthy. As the market increasingly starts acknowledging and factoring in FY2012 and FY2013 earnings growth, in our view, the Sensex will get a springboard for further upsides.

    We believe for the 8-8.5% real GDP growth that India still looks set to achieve and the resulting strong 17.4% CAGR in Sensex earnings, a target P/E multiple of 15x on FY2013E EPS looks reasonable. In this context, even after the recent bounce back, the Sensex is looking reasonably valued, available at 15.4x FY2012E EPS, almost 10% lower than its average P/E of 16.7x since April 2004. In fact, even continuing with this 10% discount, our 15x target multiple on FY2013E EPS translates into a Sensex target of 22,326 by March 2012, on account of healthy earnings growth expected. This implies an upside of 15%, with further upsides likely as valuations move closer to the average P/E. Hence, we maintain our positive stance on the market, with an overweight view on interest-sensitive sectors such as banking and infrastructure.

    Kindly click on the following link to view the Report.

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 05, 2011
    Every broker has his own story. Where was Angel Broking when the market slid almost 10 days in a row and lost almost 3000 points? I have given my views before and re-iterate even now. The market is poised for a fall and it will start from the end of this month. Instead of market gaining 15% as per Angel Broking, I think that market may lose 25% by October or may go lower than 14,000. The property market may collapse in large cities and many builders and developers will run away leaving the buildings partly completed or selling same property to more than 2 buyers.

    Angel Broker may return with reassessment at that time with another 20% fall from 14000, I am sure. Let us see whether Angel is really an Angel or a Devil.

    Wait for final result and last quarter result for OMC and also for Spicejet and Satyam. They all should report good numbers, When those stocks go up, and there is no change in diesel price deregulation, you may reduce your exposure even in them due to possible market slide. These stocks too will tumble in poor markets. However,please note that you should not have invested in OMC stocks from one year perspective. Our call was very clear, invest for 5 years minimum to get 500% to 700% returns. Do not modify our call to suit your convenience.

    Silver is consolidating and staying firmly above $38, is the threat to Big Banks to cover their naked shorts still valid or has it postponed to next expiry?
    -Venkat, Chennai, India, 05 Apr 11

       I invested 300000 rs in Indian Market when Sensex 17700  and now sensex 19700. My Invested value now 3,60000 rs.  approx.Can I sell all equity or not? I bought following stock at that time–
    UFLEX 1000 bought at  139 CMP 162
    JPASSOCIATE bought 1000@72 CMP 98
    HIND OIL EXPLORER bought 300@195 CMP 230
     Pl advise me what can I do? Can market go up or not

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 05, 2011
    I would sell everything you own. without exception. May be you can sell progressively over next 15 days, but will sell all without exception and then wait for correction. If you disagree with my analysis in general, you may stay on. It is the question of views.

  182. INDIA, Stock Market


    I would request on how were you able to make a prediction on the Stock Market top? I am not sure what indicators to look out for.

    The P/E of the index becomes expensive but sensex has seen sustained higher P/Es ( in the range of 40 – 50) in, say the early 1990s.

    It would be very helpful if you can guide us on what indicators you look out in making such predictions.

    With Regards,
    Anshuman, Kolkata , India , April 05

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 05, 2011
    Every observer has his own method and view point. Some analysts do not want to go against the flow of the market opinion – they are instructed by their bosses to toe the line of large brokers or analysts. I do not have that kind of restriction, so speak out my mind.

    The PE of 30 or 40 is achieved during extreme bull market or extreme bearish market (when the earnings suddenly go down to make PE expensive). This scenario may repeat in India when the earnings will come down due to much higher than acceptable interest rates.

    There are no hard and fast rule. I anticipate the earnings and broader shape of economy and also possible money flow. If FII perceives that there are better bargains abroad, and most money has been made in India, they will go for exit that may bring down the market. These are relative factors extremedly difficult to evaulate even for experienced observer like Kalidas.

    The stock market looks to the future, not the present. Most persons make mistake by looking at the picture of present as indication of the future which may not be so. Only a few months back, the BSE was sliding on daily basis and lost almost 3000 points to almost 17500 level from high of 20,500. It is same market, same earnings picture – the only difference was prospects of future inflation and direction of interest rates. That perception changed due to bargains available, so those FII returned. Their [portfolio also gained boost due to higher rupee by 3% near the quarter end that shows them better than what they were just 7 days before.


    Dear Anil Jee,

    With respect to your reply to Mr. Mihir, Ahemadabad on 5th April2011,regarding adding more silver, i am a bit confused by these lines ” In India, if rupee strength is not tempered with, the interest rates may fall later – but at the moment – the market will be on slide until October at least. It may lose about 20% ”                  

    Can you please explain the above a bit more what does it mean when you say -“but at the moment – the market will be on slide until October at least. It may lose about 20% ”

    Do you mean that  in Silver after rising to $41-$43.50 soon, there will a temporary correction of about 20% before it starts its upswing to $ 50 in May-June 2011.Please advise.

    Vandana Kothari
    Udaipur (Rajasthan)-INDIA
    05 APRIL 2011

    Kalidas Says … Tuesday, April 05, 2011
    We will be in reporting season from third week of April. The year ending will be 31/3/2011 and it will also be quarter ending as of same date. The companies, especially Banks and financial institutions, will have to value their portfolio on “Mark to Market” basis which will invite serious losses. The profitability of banks will be significantly lower, if they adopt MTM rule. Similarly, various infrastructure companies who have found capital dried up and rates higher, will be showing lower income due to higher interest cost. Higher rupee during last few days of March, will also lower the income of high tech companies who never expected the rupee rising so strongly in a few days. All in all, the profits will be lower, GDP growth may be trending lower (though not significantly), property markets too will begin to slide due to credits to the builders and consumers sliding down. It may trigger slow poison like correction, with two steps down and one step up.

    This observation related to stock market and not Silver which is on rise as predicted by us. In India, where you live and invested in silver, the rise in silver prices is less by 3% or about Rs 1700 per kg due to rupee appreciation. It should have been around Rs 59000 or about. Internationally, the process of short covering has started. The open interest for May 2011 has come down fast by 3000 contracts to 72,000+ as soon as the silver broker the barrier of 37.85. It may still consolidate around 38.75 as originally predicted by us.

    When the Silver is rising on strong volume and breaks through critical resistance level, one may see sudden rise due to active participation of key players known as “momentum player”. As result, the Silver may rise suddenly by 10% to 15% suddenly due to temporary imbalance which may become “Sell” opportunity. Now, in India Rupee also rises by another 2%, the rise in Silver prices in rupee terms will be anywhere between 8% to 12% or about Rs 4800 per kg to Rs 6000 or Silver may rise to Rs 63000 to Rs 65000 our original prediction level.

    Now, nothing moves up or down in straight line for long without consolidation. When the Silver enters the higher trading range, there may be new level established $36.75 to $ 43.50 -so correction is not ruled out from higher level. What will happen to Rupee, I do not know. The $ Index known as USD Index is precariously standing at 75.89 or precariously near critical level of 74 – just 2.10%. Thus, if the Index breaks through 74, especially 73.50, it will not take long for dollar to slide to 71 level or by 5 points or nearly 7%. Almost all metals and currencies will rise with exception of Japanese Yen where the Japanese government is seen buying dollars against yen.

    This is the scenario. Do not mix up with Silver/Gold market with general market (stocks and bonds)

  184. India / Spicejet / future movement of stock

    Dear sir,

    Kindly guide me for my holding in spicejet [ 7500 at Rs.46]

    I can stay invested upto 3 years

    Darshan Joshi, Ahmedabad

    Kalidas says………..Tuesday, 3 April, 2011
    Do not worry, go to sleep.


    With the QE2 in the US and BOJ also printing money to overcome the tsunami and earthquake destruction,do you predict a 50$ silver by mid-year?
    also since some of the hawkish members of the fed are proposing an increase in the intrest rates before year end and the QE2 ending mid-year do you see a correction in silver and gold before reaching the elusive 50$ mark?
    Moreover the gold/silver ratio is at near historic lows,is it time to sell silver buy gold?


    Kalidas says………..Tuesday, 3 April, 2011
    FED is not going to increase interest rates anytime soon nor QE2 will be the end. It may come out with QE3 or may give some extended life for another 6 months or so.

    Read my past report “GOLD $6400 and Silver $80” published here. go through the archive. There are recent reports of backwardation in silver where Spot prices are higher than futures due to physical shortage. It may rise to $41 to 43.50 soon However, further rise may be reserved in May and June when it may reach $ 50 to $53.50 level. However, the silver may considerably slow down in 50 to 60 region for extended time. It may trade between 48.50 to 53.50 for long time after hitting $50.

    It may be a good trading sell then Even now, at about $41 to 43.50 will be good trading sell in short term. This level may be achieved in next few days.

    Also watch US Dollar Index which is at 75.89. Any fall below 74, that is by 2% against all currencies now, will spell disaster and almost all commodities may rise again. It may be noted that rise in interest rates in Euro followed by in GBP, will lower the commodity market speculation and expect further rates rise in developed market by 0.75% in 3 increments. It will be then the US interest rates may rise.

    In India, if rupee strength is not tempered with, the interest rates may fall later – but at the moment – the market will be on slide until October at least. It may lose about 20%.

    It also appears that the oil prices are increasingly quoted in Euro rather than in US Dollars because threat of sanction and freezing of accounts in United States of some Arab countries. this is the reason that Euro is rising (in addition to expiration of dollar index futures for March resulting into short covering of Euro currency). There could be also some realignment in forex reserve of some countries who might switch back from dollar to euro to meet their daily requirements of oil. Arabs do not appear to be accepting US dollars in payment for oil exports.

  186. Indian Stock Markets. Future Outlook.
    Dear Anil Sir,
    Its been a while since you you gave an outlook about indian stock markets to any reader. Please guide us with the reason for this bullishness in the indian stock markets wherby there has not been much change in any macro data but the markets are rising every day. Also what is your prediction about future outlook of the markets. Last time you gave very strong sell recommendation when market fell. This time any such prediction at your end.
    Harish. Gurgaon. India. 4.4.2011

    Kalidas says………..Tuesday, 3 April, 2011
    I have already guided the readers. When the market was around 17,200 to 17,400, I have informed investors to buy, and very recently, when the market was at about 18,400, I mentioned about at least 600 points rally which overshoot to 19,400. I have also mentioned in this column to sell out almost 90% of entire investment, including good stocks, if Japanese government decides to entomb the nuclear reactors. In any case, the market is fully priced now, and may be beginning from 3rd week, it may begin to slide and even GDP growth rate may be brought down.

    It is also likely that the stocks like Spicejet may announce better year end and last quarter result that may result into re-rating of the stock upwards. Satyam too may get upgrade. Its only obstacle is the irresponsible tax demand of Rs 600 crores from IT department and High Court order not to issue stay order.

  187. Learning option/future

    Sir, I want to learn about investing in options and futures.Please suggest me any web page or if any ebook available through you.The content should be simple like you write and you make your novice readers understand.Thank you. Best regards.

    Raj, Delhi, 04/04/2011

    Kalidas says………..Tuesday, 3 April, 2011
    I will have to write an eBook which will take some time. When ready, I will inform you or make general announcement.

  188. INDIA, STOCKS, Hold or swap from Andhra Bank, IOB or banking stocks

    My brother-in-law has 500 shares of Andhra Bank @ INR 10 (CMP 150) and 100 shares of IOB @24 (CMP 146) and ING VYSYA BANK 300 @250 (CMP 317). Do you advise to sell these banking stocks and swap to spicejet and satyam as he was holding these stocks since long back in his demat account but with out trading account. Is it good to keep banking stocks for next 6 months or swap to some other scrips by selling them?

    Thanks and Regards,
    Krishna, Hyderabad, INDIA
    Date 4th April 2011.

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 02, 2011
    Sell Andhra Bank 400 at CMP, all 100 shares of IOB and also all shares of ING Vaisya Bank. Invest in banking stocks only in second half in stocks like Yes Bank.

    You may buy Spicejet when the oil price start stabilizing – this is not the case at the moment. Satyam also has high court judgement hangover over Income Tax payments. I would wait for some more time until it has been cleared up. Yes, you may buy small position (about 35% of what you intend to buy).

  189. IND: LnT: Listing of LnT Finance IPO
    Will shareholders get any shares of LnT finance?
    Needed more clarity and your views on the same

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 02, 2011
    No idea. It is not spun off fully but only partly. Morally they should do it, but LnT is in so much need of money that they are raising it right way or wrong way. They have lost lot of money in derivative losses which has not been provided for. Their Auditors are also silent on this issue, I do not like this company from investment angle. It is too pricey so I do not pay any attention to it.

  190. Dear Boarders,

    Please do NOT write in UPPERCASE letters. It’s like yelling at the readers. 

    Bangalore, 03rd Apr’11, 19:47

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 02, 2011
    Agreed. I also made my point.


    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 02, 2011
    Do not post your queries over phone so as to use full capital letters. Write your queries in normal form as others do.

    Do not expect 25% return all the time. If you really need good return without hurting yourself, invest 700,000 in FD with 10% interest and Rs 300,000 in other stocks like Reliance, ONGC or IOC. Do not fiddle with other small stocks with retirement money. If do this way, you will make at least 18% average for 7 years in a row. May be more, depending on diesel price deregulation. Split Rs 1 Lakh each in Reliance, ONGC and IOC

  192. DEAR SIR,                                                                                                                                                                                                           WHATS UR VIEW ON SILVER AND GOLD,IS UR VIEW OF SILVER REACHING 41 $ BEFORE 10TH APRIL IS INTACT OR WILL THEY WOULD GET HAMMERED BY FED MONEY POWER WITH THE BANKS DO GUIDE.                                                                                                                                                    
    Manish,HYDERABAD,INDIA,APRIL 03,2011

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 02, 2011
    Do not write your queries in full capital letters. These are not readable.

    I can not give daily commentary on Silver. It is still strong and people are already in money. In India, rupee is gaining strength and it has already firmed up by 3%. Otherwise, Silver in India would have gone up by Rs 1500 (3% of Rs 56500) . You are asking question from India, so you have to consider both factors – price in $ and also value of Rupee. Further, FED is not guiding the price lower. FED has nothing to do with silver at the moment. JP Morgan Chase bank is independent bank who was used for manipulating the price of gold, not silver. That was JPMC’s individual decision.


    Holdings NIL, CMP 120.25, MCap 193Cr, EQ 16.05, BV 43, PE 10.59.
    YH 252, YL 89
    2009-10 12 Months Sales 79.99Cr, NP 13.66Cr
    2010-11   9 Months Sales 76.09Cr, NP 15.86Cr

    Indian Company operates in high margin horticulture segment of agriculture market dealing hybrid seeds (100% more yield than other hybrid seeds) & biocide (secondary metabolites produced by microbial processes having a shelf life of three years and not harm ful to human health against 1 year for chemical pesticide a health hazardous). Company having a good R& D research and a plan to open manufacture unit in Indonesia and Brazil. Founder & MD Mr.Dhirendrakumar was a Master in genetics and plant breeding and MBA. Sir, May I invest in this stock for long term (+5 Years) for best returns as like as IOC as predicted by you?


    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 02, 2011
    You may. However, I am not sure whether this stock will give you 500% return even if you keep it for over 5 years. Even today, the educated people do not go for agriculture in India. Yes, the stock may give you above average return.

    Selection of stocks is like a picking up the most beautiful girl in a beauty contest where her beauty is seen not her brain or other qualities. Also, most people buy the stocks in industry they are familiar with. If there are long queues outside Tata Motors and Maruti, people buy them or any other auto stocks. How many people know what is biocide or metabolites? This is a specilized field, and may be some large international company may buy them out if their research is really valuable. This stock is therefore meant for specific group of people who are interested in the agriculture or who are more idealistic. I am not discouraging you but I am comparing the commercial potential of stocks, their popularity and mass appeal.

    IOC and this stock can not be compared. You can not compare a company in Agro sector with revenue of Rs 80 crores with Blue chip company like IOC (Future blue chip) with over Rs 300,000 crores turnover.

  194. Silver Prices.

    Sir can Silver face a Correction after such a Sharp run up of nearly 20% in a month.
    As Gold to Silver ratio is lowest at present, so one can Migrate from Silver to Gold?

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 02, 2011
    Append your signature always. I am not able to post reply therefore.

  195. Property Prices falling By 20%

    Dear Sir, I have query regarding your post of Property Prices.

    Sir ,I have a Property In Indore Which I have purchased 2 Years back for Investment Purpose.
    Now I get a return of nearly 30% over my Investment.

    So as U stated that Property Prices falls in Mumbai,can it will efect to over all in India.
    Should I hold back my Property Or sell it out for looking a better chance to book out my Profit.

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 02, 2011
    Append your signature at the end of the message.

    Mumbai property went through the roof, so it will correct more. In CP Tank area, where the prices used to rule at about Rs 8000 to Rs 10,000 per sft, a large new multistorey apartment was offering the price of Rs 32,000 per sft. It finds no buyers even at Rs 25,000. However, there are no transactions.

    I do not think the city like Indore did see such rise as in Mumbai. There will be correction if the banks tighten the credit in Indore, but what I find is that the prices are anywhere between Rs 2000 to Rs 3500 per sft against land, construction and finance cost of around Rs 1200 per sft to Rs 2000 per sft. The level of correction in Indore will be less. Indore is a good industrial city with excellent weather to my knowledge. If you believe that the prices of your property has advanced more than 200% in less than 2 years, may be you can sell and take the profit. You can not use the property prices of 5 years or more because there was no active mortgage or credit for homes at that time.

    Please note that I am not familiar with the Indore market. You may take my opinion as a rough guide. You have to consult the people over there to find out whether the banks are still lending and whether the transactions are still at high volume or tapered off. Refer to this site http://indore-properties.estatesmall.com/ which might give you idea of prices prevailing in Indore. This site may be used for any other major cities.

  196. Sub: Zero Hedge Report On Fukushima Reactors
    Dear Anil Sir,
    Please find following link from Zero Hedge on Fukushima.
    Parag, Surat, India 2nd April 2011

    Kalidas Says … Saturday, April 02, 2011
    Excellent resource. it reconfirms my assessment in raw terms that the nuclear crisis may take the shape for the worst.

    While the report talks about several years to resolve, I may mention here that once the nuclear reaction starts, it does not stop or slows down, unless the nuclear material is take off (such as radioactive rod mostly of Plutonium). It will be a matter of hours or days before we see the worst case scenario.

    These are however highly technical matters where a common person’s knowledge will not reach. We are all common man and therefore we may not know the intensity of the present subject matter.

  197. INDIA, OMC, Market tanking
    Respected Kalidasji,

    I have invested up to 25% of money in OMC stocks and currently having 25% paper loss. The following observations merits your attention.

    Since last liberalization on 25th June 2010, Govt periodically raising petrol prices till Nov 10 and fulfilling its subsidy pay outs largely at the end of each quarter.
    Diesel deregulation is talked more during this year.
    MENA factor has not expected and the crude price rise in the first quarter is a small black swan event complicated liberalization in petroleum sector.
    Govt feared political fallout has delayed further liberalization in petroleum sector and stopped raising even petrol prices which is free product
    But Govt may take some measures which are expected to take place after elections  in May 2011.
    The crude oil is expected to be softened considering the following link:


    On June 25 2010, price rise effected was 6% and OMC’s risen more than 40%. This phenomena is expected in the coming one or two months, do you expect selling OMC”s too a wise decision on Fukushima fall out? 


    V.S.Kumar, Jorhat, India

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 01, 2011
    My fear on Fukushima Nuclear facility is conjectural. It may not happen at all. The government may not decide on allowing free market soon so long as the Middle East crisis is continuing. May election may also enhance this stance. A factor in favour of Government is rising rupee which is reducing the cost of import, a plus of OMC. But until the diesel is liberalized, there is little chance of OMC making headway. Look at ONGC – it did not move much with the market.

    At the moment, focus only on Middle East crisis which is keeping prices high and also look at Indian Rupee. When the oil prices begin sliding down, or mid east crisis shows signs of stabilizing, then get back into OMC stocks.

    If Japan news confirms that nuclear reactor will be positively entombed and announcement is made with regard to pouring of concrete, then only reduce the market exposure including OMC. Until such time stay put.

  198. Karuturi Global,
    Dear Sir,
    I saw your reply to one of the border about P/E being more than 100 for this company.
    But this is not true and everybody at first instance gets this information wrong as most of the websites only provide standalone EPS figure not consolidate. This company has 90% of operations oversees mainly in Kenya and Ethiopia. Consolidated EPS is around 6 at present with full equity dilution.
    This is not a just another small cap – it is India’s one of the major representative amongst international players who wants to capitalize on African Natural resources (Agricultural related) mainly Chinese, Middle east and European countries/companies.
    Karuturi global has been allocated 741,000 acres of land mainly in couple of parcels in Ethiopia by Ethiopian government for Cultivation of maize, vegetables, palm oil, sugarcane etc. This forms very large land mass for agri product cultivation in stretch. KGL plans to supply 5% of total agri requirement when it get the entire allocated land ready for cultivation. This land has been awarded at less than 1 USD per acre per Year. This project has attracted international attention (pasted few of the Bloomberg reports just for reference) mainly criticizing company alleging it exploiting the poor African nation by aligning with corrupt African government.
    But we have to give credit to Management of this company by taking such initiative at first place.  They have proven their capabilities by becoming number 1 procedure of cut roses in the world in which main contribution comes from operations from Kenya and Ethiopia. So their capabilities are not questioned at all. Only issue with the company is they are not able to meet their guidance on timing of when Agri business will start. But I think we need to them some time to execute this unique project which could address food security of Ethiopian and surrounding African countries.
    Another important thing is they have arranged for the capital mainly by PE placement with international investors so debt burden is very less. Even if they fail into this project their Ross business itself is of size to justify current share market prize (PE ~6).
    If not for stock performance but least for their courage and importance of this project this company deserves attention. It is going to be very interesting to see how their project progresses keeping in mind volatile, unstable and unpredictable African political and social environment.
    Some of the links with articles on KGL by Bloomberg/other media:
    Apurva, Mumbai, India
    1 April 2011

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 01, 2011
    I do not remember having commented on this stock. I know about this company’s involvement but never had chance to evaluate fully. I also know that they own large price of acreage in Africa which is a good investment. However, land is not enough. In agro investment, water is the key. I am right now in United States and see lot of land which are arid. In fact, I am myself scouting for agricultural land in United States which is far cheaper than in India.

  199. India-MTNL-Sale of 3G

    Dear Sir,

    There is roumour of 3 big positives on MTNL happening in quick succession.

    1. They would be selling the 3G license (of Delhi & Mumbai) to private players.

    2. Tax refund of 1380 crores that would be reported in 4th qtr results

    3. Possible sale of land in Borivali estimated to be over 1000 Crores.

    While your long term view is very much positive for this company, would it be good to buy now at CMP of 47.80 for a say 15% gain over next 6 months.

    Request you view.


    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 01, 2011
    Better provide the link whenever you are seeking my views based on your information. I have always mentioned that MTNL is meant for very long investors and its ADR is more valuable than even domestic shares. The only reason for its lower profitability was due to cumulative provision for retirement benefits of past years which was provided in one shot. It was more like a book entry. Not everyone retires same day. Just as in banking or insurance, not every customer demand money at same time nor every insurer dies on same day that would create instant liability for bank or insurance company.

    It is a debt free company unless it has raised borrowing to pay for the 3G license. It needs very strong leadership from private sector, not from within the government cadres who are 9 to 5 employees.

    When the company is as large as MTNL, debt free, tremendous hidden assets, and above all, the stock trading at 30% of its book value, ignoring even the hidden asset, what more do you want from investment angle.

  200. Death of Dollar and Rupee Future
    Hello Sir
    I live in usa and planning to buy home in near future of 2-3 yrs. I have around $100K in cash. I read enough in last few years that $ will die soon but it did not happen yet.  Do you think, will it really happen and if so then do you guess when it could happen. Also when $ dies will rupee goes or higher or it will play low.
    Kindly Advice.
    Amit, Calfiornia, USA

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 01, 2011
    Dollar has already lost value against major currencies, except Indian rupee. Dollar is already dying. At the moment it appears that the rupee may gain but we often get false alarm because RBI intervenes. You have to bet on two weak currency – $ and rupee. So you can afford to wait because your property purchase is also deferred by 2 years.

    In normal circumstances, I would sell dollar and get the Rupee in domestic currency (not NRE) because local deposit rates are as high as 9.5% for FD for 18 months or about. So, you gain about 15% in 18 months by interest alone whereas in dollar you gain is virtually nil. However, it is your convenience. Most NRI want to keep the money in NRI which fetches only 3% interest whereas the local rupee deposit yield is nearly 3 times.

    If your money is in local rupee, then it will be difficult to transfer the money back to USA (there are other channels of course), So stay with USD for the moment, if your intention is not to convert into local rupee.

  201. India- Position dilution or hold?

    1-Sir i have positions filled in OMC to my limit ,as per the CMP my losses are about 20-25 % , and in satyam about 15% losses, with the prediction of markets tanking should i sell or hold these stocks.

    2- As per your comment on reliance it is a buy but don’t you feel that even RIL would correct  in the coming days fall it being the biggest cap stock in market??

    Thanks & Regards

    Kalidas Says … Friday, April 01, 2011
    My view is based on Japan taking actions to entomb the nuclear reactor with concrete. The decision has not been taken yet, and it is still in deliberation stage.

    In any case, Indian market is overpriced at the moment. You can afford to sell 50% of both stocks and buy back in correction using the same money. For Satyam. while conditions are good, there was a tax demand of over Rs 600 crores from IT Department in False income for which the hearing in High court in Andhra Pradesh is pending. The High Court did not give stay order to Satyam and its all acounts were frozen blocking almost Rs 1300 crores.

    In all probability, Satyam should win this case, because tax is payable only on real income, not on fraudulently disclosed income for which audit has already been made. Nevertheless, you may sell because the market is at high end.

    And by the way, why did you buy OMC stocks to full limit? We asked the readers to buy only upto 25% and that too in stages with progress in news of diesel control. In any case, the stocks are already up by nearly `10% (in case of IOC), so sell them now and buy back in correction. You must have chased the stocks all the way to the top prices – then only you can lose 20% to 25%.

    Further, do not write bland questions. If you are making stock enquiry, be specific. Read the alert box on top of CMCA Article for April 2011 and be guided in future. Otherwise, I do not post reply.

  202. yes, website works fine with  firefox 4.0.

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 31, 2011


    My Firefox Ver 4.0 works well with your webpage.
    Dear Sir
    So far I have no problem with your webpage as I am using Firefox ver.4.0. It is working well.
    Renukswami, Pointe-Noire, Congo

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 31, 2011
    Thanks for assisting.


    Dear sir,

    This company provides play ground to market watchers. In other words it creates Exchanges. It owns around 30% in MCX exchange and it also has other 10 small and big exchanges in its kitty worldwide.
    Company revenues are around 350 crores but because of other investments PAT is more then revenues. MCX it self has PAT of around 2200 crores. details obtained from http://www.mcxindia.com/aboutus/AnnualAccounts/AnnualAccounts.htm

    Should one buy this stock at present rate. Or wait for MCX IPO.

    I own 50@1000 CMP 863
    BSE: 526881   |   NSE: FINANTECH   |   ISIN: INE111B01023

    Thanks, Rakesh, Long Beach, CA, USA

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 31, 2011
    The price difference is too small to buy more. Why did not you buy when it was less than Rs 650 at one time? It is a good company with good products. Yes, SEBI did not give them required permission to start the competing exchange. But it is understandable. Buy it when the price difference between your cost and the market price then is about 25% or when the stock is below Rs 800.

    At the moment I am fearing nuclear disaster in Japan. If they foolishly pour in the concrete, the reactor will burst which may have devastating effects on the markets around the world. You may be able to get the stock much cheaper at that time if that unfortunate incident does happen. Do not ask me question then, just buy it and then sleep over the matter.

    Should you buy IPO. It all depends on the price. If the price is within above band, go ahead and buy it. I am generally secondary market player – never invested in IPO in my life. Wherever you get cheap price, IPO or the crashed market, go for it.

  205. Hello sir,
    I have been following your website for sometime recently, you seem to have some God’s gift and at the sametime you are generous in sharing your time and knowledge. I have seen some technical anaysis where in they use all kind of mathematics like those involved in high-tech engineering, my query is, can you predict the movement of the stocks using this kind of high-end mathematics like Fibonacci, Elliot’s wave and many more. I would be very thankful if you could let me know. Thanks for your valuable time and please let me know if you do have anykind of online training. I shall be more than eager to get the knowledge from a great Guruji.

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 31, 2011
    Always append your signature while posting. Our norms are to be followed by everyone at all time.

    Yes, I know about those analysis but never paid attention to it. The reason is, if everyone follows the same technique and standard, then not much secret is left. We can not be different than rest of the experts.

    Further, a common man, who are mostly my readers, is not used to graphs, charts, technical analysis etc. Everything will go over his head like a pace bowler’s bumper or beamer. Most people remember and understand numbers, so I address their needs based on numbers. If I say “If this chart retraces by 39%, then it will go to this level, and if it does not retrace, it will go to that level. Now, what an ordinary person will understand from such virtual non sense?

    Instead if I say that if the stock goes to say, 39, sell it and buy back if it comes to 35. Then it will make sense to the reader. Most of the high end mathematical solutions do not work because they look at the result, not cause. For instance, if the stock has support level at point X, most analysts use this as standard. I ask why the hell the stock went to that X level at first place? that is, I try to understand the cause, not the result. This is where the real skill lies.

    So what you call Fibonacci, Elliot’s wave etc are meant for big so called professional guys, not small guys in the street. Most believe that if some one is a hedge fund manager or pension fund manager with nice suit and tie, he is a professional – in fact they are not.

    My definition of professional investor is one who makes money, whether he is suit or half short or in dhoti. These are the people who have money for investment. And they got this money which they earned by hard work, that is, they are truest professional. Others are only “show cased professionals”. Even I did not allow my customer to call me a professional because I told them that you made money with the risk you have taken, so you are a professional – I am only your broker.


  206. My Firefox Ver 4.0 works well with your webpage.
    – Ramesh, Mumbai, India.

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 31, 2011
    Thanks for assisting. I guessed right – you will be the first one to report.

  207. Hello READERS!

    My Firefox Ver 4.0 does not render my webpage very well. Other browsers like IE9, Google, Opera 11, Safari does not have that problem. I am not sure whether the problem related to my personal computer or it is general in nature.

    Those using Firefox 3.6 and above, may just post one line whether it works for them well. No more than 3 feedback is desired. So if 3 feedback are received, please stop posint  feeback.

    Anil Selarka
    31/3/2011 USA

    There was problem with the old theme which was producing very small fonts. Until it is corrected, this theme will continue. Please bear with us for the time being.

    31/3/2011, USA

  209. I received the following feed back from one of the real estate website (99acres.com)

    Real Estate Prices in Mumbai Will Fall Soon
    Real Estate prices in Mumbai are set to decline further in overheated markets as transactions have fallen due to high-prices. Developers, who were so far holding on to their prices, have started offering discounts to woo buyers to mobilize fund inflows through sales as money flow from other channels have dried up. Residential property prices in Mumbai, the most expensive market in India, have already seen a correction of 20 per cent from the peak level and it is expected to decline further in the range of 15 to 25 per cent.

    March 28th 2011, Indian Realty News

    I do not know for sure whether the prices are really down by 20%. However, the prices are lower trajectory as originally forecast by us.

    In the meantime, if the nuclear reactor bursts in Japan, expect massive correction in almost every major infra structure projects and real eastate prices in India.

    So if you were bracing for buying the property, start scouting now and when the best bargains (on ready possession basis) are available, then grab them. Use bank finance even if they are costly with prepayment clause without any penalty. Use nationalized banks rather than other electronic banks.

  210. India, Stock Market, Reg: Manipulations
    Dear Sir,
    Indian stock indices have risen during the last ten days without any underlying positive news for the market or economy. It appears to be purely manipulated.Only index shares are running higher. Who in your opinion could be the manipulators. Can the government manipulate the indices. Your detailed views in the matter will be appreciated.
    With regards
    V.G.Bhat,Pune, India, 31 March 2011

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 31, 2011
    No one can manipulate the whole market. Government of India is not known to manipulate the market, currency yes, but the stocks and bond market -NO.

    Partly it was due to local mutual funds buying to window dress their balance sheets as at 31/3/2011 and some other corporates. Otherwise, they will get margin calls from their lenders for securities shortfall.

    Relax. Do not smell rat in every thing.

  211. Global Market-Ending QE2 programme
    Dear Sir,
    Reposting my query as it missed your attention in the earlier series.

    There have been articles off late that QE2 programme of FED would end before june 2011, may be in April 2011 itself.  This coupled with possible interest rate hike in Euro and other geopolitical situation, would it be reasonable to go cash now.  Uncertinity being the biggest threat to market, do you forsee any crash of more than 10% in indian market in a month or two.

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 31, 2011
    If QE2 ends, then QE3 will start. They have to pay to unemployed for one more year or even more. They have no more options left except following solution in my book.

    My original guess for Indian market to go higher to 19,200 has been borne out. I have advised my best friends to sell out most of the stocks wherever they have profit of 12% or more. The market may gain in first week of April due to current momentum and desire of some people to book loss before 31/3 and buying back in first week of April. At the moment, local factors are playing more important roll than international one.

    Some financial stocks were bought however. They in fact plummeted in spite of markets getting higher. Further, Reliance Industries Ltd. is a very strong buy at the moment. One may sell more than Rs 1000 valued stocks such as LT, Bajaj Auto, Maruti etc and switch to RIL. It has returned to growth phase again. It may give above average return compared to other peers including ONGC.

    Also, Gold may rise majestically from Second week of April. Silver may underperform compared to Gold for April only. It appears that Japan bought Treasury Bond in USA out of printing recently announced 25 trillion yen. However, there has been so much demand for yen from local industrial houses, and prospect of interest rates rise (market rates) for the first time in more than 10 years, that Yen home coming will gather pace, and soon the Yen will start rising to 73.50 or below.

    The most dangerous part is the possible Nuclear disaster in Japan. They try to entomb the entire nuclear plant by pouring concrete. This is not going to work because nuclear reaction will continue and with more concrete over its top and less water, it will burst with devastating consequences causing another $500 billion damages. It is more like pressure cooker without any vent valve. It will burst.

    This is the singe most fearful incident waiting to happen soon – and it is better one gets out as soon as possible from the market and stay cash. Even the best stocks may be sold and there should not be more than 10% exposure in desired and high quality stocks. The present rally in BSE is God Send, so if you agree with my views, get into cash soon in next 7 days. Watch the Nuclear event very closely and get into the market only after reasonable evidence appear that the nuclear crisis has been contained for good.

    If nuclear incident does happen, there will be more home coming of yen which will push it to 60Y/$ level as originally predicted.

  212. INDIA, Educomp Solutions Limited, EDUCOMP.NS Reg: Purchase or Not
    Hi sir,
    Could you please suggest whether I can buy this stock at CMP of 433/-
    I would like to know the entry level of this stock for a 1 year period.

    Rayabandi, Hyderabad, India, 31-03-2011

    Kalidas Says … Thursday, March 31, 2011
    I do not understand this stock, so I avoid it. No views therefore.

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