CONFUSED MIND CLEAR ANSWERS (2010-02)
Ref: 2010 – February of 1st February, 2010
2010 – Protocol to Observe before you post
I am starting today “2010, February series”. Post your February comments here using comment box at the bottom.
The Jan 2010 series will be archived in PDF and HTML format (to make it searchable) and is made available from Download center. DO NOT POST ANY QUERIES IN JAN 2010 – It will not be answered.
I am making few changes. My reply will not be detailed as before. It will not be more than 10 lines at the most. If there is any major issue of concern or interest is shown by the readers, I will promptly address it in the form a separate post or page, so that repetitive query are not posted or answered, and the readers can enjoy only single point of reference for that issue.
The readers may note another important protocol. Please post your comments in the following format:
HEADING – Write in Capital letters, name of the stock enquired about or title of major issue as per reader’s choice. Do not extend beyond one line.
MESSAGE BODY
- Write your query or specific question very clearly.
- Do not use compliments for my predictions or assessments. Yes, you can criticize.
- Write each issue in one Para.
- Do not use essay form. Write to the point, do not be apologetic for anything nor bother about what I would feel about your post, just speak out your mind clearly.
- Use your normal word processor, to write your comments first, think over it, have it spell checked with proper capitalization, and then only post it.
- Make a standard format or template using the present protocol, so that you do not forget anything like your name, city etc.
At the END OF MESSAGE, please mention without fail
- your Name (you can use nickname, but mention real name in the bracket as I do)
- City
- Country and
- Date of posting (although I know it, but when I consolidate at month end, the program does not use the posted date. It is better you write the date of posting and time (not so essential)
Formatting your posts in above manner will make entire post pleasant, eye catching, and highlight the stocks or subject in such a way that other readers can scroll through easily to find what they want even from your message.
Kalidas (Anil Selarka)
Hong Kong, January 30, 2010
MASTER INDEX (Last month on Top)
- CONFUSED MIND CLEAR ANSWERS – February 2010
- CONFUSED MIND CLEAR ANSWERS – January 2010
Link to this page
MAHINDRA FORGINGS – CMP= 104
I have 100 MForge shares at 145 purchased in Oct 2009, Do u think I shud buy more 500 at cmp as their profit r good.
Thanks
Lilian
Dubai
2nd Aug 2010
Kalidas says…Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Buy 200 now. More if it corrects.
Lilian
3 Aug 10 at 2:01 AM
Respected Shri Kalidas ji,
(1) Thanks for your input on Shree Ashtavinayaka saying that you do not bother procedural actions, which are temporary. Fine point noted. Sir, Shree Ashtavinayaka during the trading hours on March 2 announced (google finance news) about pledging of shares, which led to around 4 crores of shares sold (NSE+BSE) on March 2 and today also around 3 crores (NSE+BSE), both days LC. Should I switch over to some other stocks of your choices. Or, is it a trick by Shree Ashtavinayaka to make investors sell cheap, so that Company can buy cheap and later sell at high? Any input will be highly appreciated. Please do not mind as I have repeated question on this company. (2) Are Mcleod Russel Tea and Jaicorp multibaggers? In your view which shares could be multibaggers. (3) Sir, I am somewhat new to market and lost around 30% or 1.50 lakh in trading. I am slightly getting diffident, so please do not mind if I ask you questions frequently. I know my worries will subside soon. (4) Though I watch many analysts on TV, you sound to be more practical and real and always stick to what you say. I mean not like many others who behave like Thali ke Bengan (moving brinjal according to the movements of the plate).
Ganesh
Delhi
India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, March 09, 2010
of late, due to preoccupation with certain other priorities, I was out of touch with the market in general and the named stock in particular. I will reply you as under:
1. Nothing wrong with the pledging of shares. The promoters often pledge the shares to borrow short term or arrange the bridge finance, to finance new project or activity which may be under consideration of the bank or financier. Everyone needs money in business. No one pledges the shares to manipulate the share prices. It has no connection at all. Yes, if the pledged shares are sold off in realization of bank dues, then it is a negative news. Otherwise it is not. Pledging of shares means that their shares are being accepted as valid security by the proposed financier or bank. It is a plus point, not minus.
2. Honestly, AshtaVinayak is not the kind of stock that you should involve in, It is relatively higher risk stock with higher reward. After losing Rs 1.50 lakhs, you should try to trade only in leading higher cap stocks, not lower one. Do not try to make up loss of 30% in one transaction. The gains come in stages, whereas the losses arrive in massive scoop.
3. You must be from Moneycontrol. No one uses the term “multibagger” in this column. It is more like Amitabh Hindi ‘ Apun ko” which is a chilla chaloo language. Avoid such terms here on this blog.
4. Right now you are in trading market. Whatever you buy, book profit on short terms basis. If you are looking fior sizable gains, look for Dish TV, Petronet, LICHF and play them on 2 to 3 years basis. They will still give you at least 200% gain in less than 3 years.
Ganesh
4 Mar 10 at 1:47 AM
Which Currency is Best
Dear Sir,
Most of my investments is in INR and USD. I am planning to convert some of my USD holding for buying Silver ETFs. Which currency in general and here in specific would you advice as the holding currency ? Would Swiss Franc be a good holding currency ?
regards
Mehr
Delhi, India 3rd March 2010
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, March 09, 2010
Silver will rise more outside India than in India. Use Silver ETF denominated in dollar, than in rupees. Swiss Franc has lost its fundamentals – they disclosed the names of Tax dodgers to US authorities, although UBS is still fighting an uphill battle. There is increasing chance that UBS may fail and file for bankruptcy within 3 months, that may hurt Swiss Franc. Further, Switzerland is no longer favored destination for foreign investors due to Swiss Government’s policy of appeasement.
Indian Rupee, Canadian Dollar, Aussie dollar, Brazil Real, and British Pound have higher upward potential. Yes, Swiss France rises by default. However, currencies like Indian Rupee give more yield than other currencies where interest rates are nearly zero.
Mehr
3 Mar 10 at 9:20 PM
ANNOUNCEMENT:
For certain personal reasons and pre-occupation, I could not post any reply or article for last 7 days. I will be regular from tomorrow.
All queries relating to February will be posted there by tonight. Do not repost them in March series.
Kalidas (Anil Selarka)
1- Mar- 2010
Anil Selarka
1 Mar 10 at 12:10 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
Wish you Happy & Colourful HOLI.
Pl. start March series of Confused Mind Clear Answers.
- Ramesh, Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Monday, March 01, 2010
Thanks. I will do it in one hour. I was preoccupied for 7 days for personal work. I will start posting from tomorrow.
Ramesh
1 Mar 10 at 10:45 AM
Hello..Forgot to mention location.
New York,USA.
Thanks,
Veekay
Veekay
1 Mar 10 at 9:34 AM
Hello,
I heard from a friend about this website and impressed to read few articles.
Need your advise for following:
Holding Dish TV – 5500 stocks at Rs60(average)
Vishal Retail – 6700 at Rs86
educomp – 400 at Rs745
Indiabulls – 2000 at Rs220.
Thanks,
Veekay
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
I advised another reader on same thing – How to ask question to Kalidas. Our policy is:
To seek advice on any stock, mention (1) stock name, (2) Purchase Date (3) Qty, (4) @Cost and (5) CMP. Symbol not necessary. No reply will be posted if these 5 details are not given.
Veekay
1 Mar 10 at 4:46 AM
Mr. Kalidas, thank you very much for the information and knowledge dispensed. I have 200 shares of Havells India at 512, 200 of ADSL at 210, 480 shares of Godrej industries at 197, I am into loss and would like to know whether do I hold or swap with your recommendations of Petronet, UCO bank, or Oil stocks. Please let me know.
Vijay Bhaskar, Bangalore, INDIA
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
You have to give current prices of the stocks for which cost is mentioned. I will give instant reply if facts required by me are mentioned. Our policy was:
To seek advice on any stock, mention (1) stock name, (2) Purchase Date (3) Qty, (4) @Cost and (5) CMP. Symbol not necessary. No reply will be posted if these 5 details are not given.
I really have no time to do the work for you. You do your own job,I will do mine.
Vijay Bhaskar
1 Mar 10 at 1:11 AM
Sir,
Happy and colorful Holy.
Shiva
Bangalore India
shiva
28 Feb 10 at 10:27 PM
hi Anil,
Can you please enlighten me with your views on IFCI as the FM has now paved the way for issuance of Banking Licence by RBI to NBFCs. Should IFCI go for it? I am waiting for the news or developments on stake-sale for private participation. I am holding 37000 shares bought at 61.15 since 3 years. When willI see my cost price and when should I exit this counter? Please advise me.
Regards
Naidu
Bangalore
India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Why are you sticking the stocks like a chewing gum? When you bought IFCI at 61.15, it did go to Rs 120, and you did not sell even partly. When it collapsed to below Rs 18, you did not buy either. It is a good stock but others are better at the moment.
Forget anking license issue. No one is coming forward to take over IFCI stake from GOI. No brokers or large investors have large and deep pockets as of right now. Forget stake sale. It is the story for the fools.
B.Dhanamjayalu
28 Feb 10 at 4:11 PM
Ganesh
Delhi
India
Shri Kalidas ji,
Recently, many stocks lilke RMEDIA, KWALITY, HFCL, FAMEINDIA, KSERA, etc, which were very popular and huge volumes were traded everyday, have suddenly been shifted to T or TS (Trade to Trade) segments, affecting very adversely on the volumes. Given the above trend, do you think SHREE ASHTRAVINAYAKA, one of your favourites, which I am also holding 5000 @ 14 (CMP 14.10), will also be moved to T or TS segment. If so, what will be the effect. I am really worried (confused mind). Please help me.
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
I do not allow my judgment shrouded by such procedural actions. Such measures have short term impact. I go for stocks holding long term potential.
Ganesh
28 Feb 10 at 4:01 PM
Dear Sir,
What is take on USD against Rupee .
Will rupee appreciate more to USD as today it is 46 rs.
Regds
Sameer
Pune
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
It is daily affair similar to brushing the teeth and going to toilet. No comments. My old comments still stand, but the GOI will not let Rupee rise, until China raises its currency . When Yuan appreciates, the Rupee will appreciate.
Sameer Apte
26 Feb 10 at 10:46 PM
Dear Kalidas:
What is your opinion/ Observations on the Budget today?
Which sectors/stocks should we stay with or ADD to or switch to?
Your opinion on the Budget and your future recommendations is highly appreciated;
Regards,
Sreeram London UK
1344hrs, 26 Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
no post budget comments as yet, because I have not even seen them. In fact, I asked you guys to increase exposure by 15% before budget and recommended sectors – they still hold good.
Sreeram, UK
26 Feb 10 at 9:45 PM
Sir,
Please comment on IFCI (CMP 51.4) and Essar Oil (CMP 131.5) as budget impact. Is there uptrend we can expect in these counters and petrol prices increased.
Regards,
Krishna
Hyderabad
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
No comments. I am yet to read the budget. I will cover your points in new article.
Krishna
26 Feb 10 at 8:59 PM
Dear Sir
IFCI raised upto 10% on this budget day and closed at 51.45
Finance Minister said that RBI is considering to give some banking licenses to Private sectors and NBFC’s.
Is that the good news you expected in this budget for IFCI?
Regards,
R. Subha
Chennai, India.
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Why should we bother about banking license to IFCI when banks like UCO and Dena having banking licenses are far cheaper than IFCI? Those banks will make more money than IFCI
The finance ministers and RBI always play around IFCI near budget time. it is time to ignore them.
Subha
26 Feb 10 at 6:31 PM
Forgot to append city and date in my earlier message.
Girish, Pune (INDIA)
25-Feb-2010
Girish
26 Feb 10 at 4:32 PM
LOW Volumes on Abhishek and Evinix
Dear Sir,
The total value transactions on Abhishek Industries (up by around 6% today) is around Rs 30 Lacs and on Evinix its a very low value of Rs 6-7 Lacs only. Do you think this makes these two stocks prone to market manipulations ? Any reasons why the stocks have such low volumes ?
I bought both these stocks yesterday…
regards
Mehr
Delhi, India, 26 Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
All small value stocks below Rs 30 downwards are prone to manipulations. We have to go with them. Without these manipulators these stocks will remain invisible. There was a time when USA was not much known to India. USA = Ulhasnagar Sindhi Association. They were the duplicators, moe like Hong Kong imitating Japan, and now that Ulhasnagar has become a real industrial town.
People always imitate. Even a child learns and imitates from elders while observing them. When it grows up, it finds its own individuality.
Microsoft Window was more popular than Apple because Bill Gates encouraged duplication. Its anti patent actions were only on paper. With more operating system software sold than apple, he found more software writers designing application for windows.
Imitation is the mother of development, if not invention. China, today’s eye shore economy, thrived on duplication.
Mehr
26 Feb 10 at 3:00 PM
Dear Anil Ji,
Took yr advise and purchased additional stocks – (dishtv, ruchi infra and gspl) yesterday, I am now sitting on 28% gold, 26% stocks & 46% cash. Would appreciate yr comments and analysis post budget and recommendations.. Thank you
Anil Doshi, KLumpur, Malaysia
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
I am yet to read the budget. I will post my comments in full article within few days. Before I go for visit to India on 15/3
Anil Doshi
26 Feb 10 at 9:34 AM
Dear kalidas ji,
** Not related to any specific query **
** Apology if this does not fit here **
Right from your book: Create jobs in America, get a green card!
URL: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/jobs/Create-jobs-in-America-get-a-green-card/articleshow/5616795.cms
Thanks and Regards,
Girish
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
After 9 months of my publication, they are coming to my terms. 250,000 is also my figure so also the Business Immigration Visa. This proves that I was months and years ahead than these politicians. I presented this proposal before onset of financial crisis – In August 2008 when I presented the proposal to President Bush. My letter to Pres Bush was also published here and can be read again.
Girish
26 Feb 10 at 12:47 AM
Dear Sir,
In terms of Valuation and future prospects of growth which of the three oil marketing companies i.e. HPCL, BPCL, IOC is good to own as a portfolio stock?
Thanks,
-Santosh
Bangalore, India.
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
It is more like making a choice from Lord Vishnu, Lord Shiva and Lord Brahma. Buy all of them in equal proportion. They will move in tandem with the sentiments to SOE refiners.
Santosh
25 Feb 10 at 10:59 PM
Dear Kalidasji..
This question is based on your today’s ANNOUNCEMENT regarding the 15% increase to indian equity exposure..
Sir, can i take more exposure to the DOW?NYSE also sir, i have bought few stocks of FNM, MTNL & SATYAM on DOW/NYSE;
Do you think it is good idea to increase my exposure on DOW for long term?
Please kindly give your advice/views on this or any other script you think is better;
Regards,
Sreeram, London, UK
1300hrs – 25th Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
It is okay because your selection were mostly Indian stocks.
Sreeram, UK
25 Feb 10 at 9:10 PM
Dear Sir ,
1. Wish to share this link with you , Hope this of help to you : http://buttonwood.economist.com/content/gdc .
2. Wanted to know your LT view on ready to wear garment companies cum retailers , in view of the cotton up cycle as well as raising aspirations of our middle class .
3. You were to publish your view on Cairn energy as LT stock . Do you still hold that view / changed it ? .
4. I am awaiting your eBook on Asian crisis .
Wishing you happiness .
sachin , pune , India
25 Feb 2010 .
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
1. Yes, the future of Ready to Wear garment is much better than before. When more and more stores like Orbit, Lifestyle become popular, the culture for shopping will change. The days of made to order garments will be over in 3 to 4 years. However, you have to be choosy about the companies. Stay with large companies in this sector with more ad campaign. In India, even a lady is required in the picture to sell the Man’s shirt.
2. My views have slightly changed with emphasis shifting to Refiners than producers. I take the view that oil prices will fall to <60 which offer more scope to refiners.
3. The eBook on Asian Crisis will be published in June because I will be traveling to India from 15/3 to 31/3 with 4 days in Pune, 6 days in Amravati, 3 days in Raipur/Bhilai/Durg and 4 days in Mumbai. I will be in Pune, your city from 15/3 to 18/3
sachin
25 Feb 10 at 7:30 PM
GOLD ETF
Dear Sir,
I plan to buy Gold, however, finding it difficult to purchase physical gold due to the storage problems, right vendor, and the premium being charged.
Alternatively, Gold ETFs like UTI/Kotak etc are much easier to buy. There is no entry/exit fees, no premium on the international gold prices, but yes an annual fees has to be paid.
Pls advice, if it is ok to take exposure to gold through these ETFs in India or there could be problems ? I am keen on UTI Gold ETF…
regards
Mehr
Delhi, India, 25 Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
I have replied this question number of times. Read my old articles on gold – they are very explicit about where to invest.
Mehr
25 Feb 10 at 7:13 PM
Dear Sir,
You have recommended GSPL and Petronet LNG and GAIL as good Gas Stocks, I was seeing the sales of GSPL it has sales around 400 crore and Market Capitalization of about 5000 crore where as in case of Petronet LNG it has sales around 8000 crore and Market Capitilization of about 5000 crore. Recently all have turned very positive about GSPL, does this mean GSPL has risen ahead of its fundamentals I find it a very costly stock , Sir I may be wrong in analyzing GSPL, Is it right to buy GSPL at this price or wait for a deeper correction before entering GSPL say around 50-60 price band. Which is a better pick GSPL or Petronet LNG? Also since GAS stocks are in limelight, Sir what about GAS infrastructure stocks likes pipe manufacturers.
Nareshkumar
Pune, India
Date:25-02-2010 Time: 2.50pm
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Too many confused statements. You raise the question and give the reply yourself and yet ask me same question. Forget market capitalization. They rise or fall depending on the popularity – not necessarily fundamentals. I was recommending Gas stocks since 2008, and now everyone has turned positive only now.
I have mentioned once that Petronet will rise and GSPL will come down. Both will meet each other one day. Both are good, but Petronet is 5 times better than GSPL.
Both stocks are involved in pipeline transportation. Buy any gas related stocks, producers, distributors, pipeline operators, LPG Cylinder manufacturers, Gas based heating appliances like Gas Heaters. These stocks will make money in 3 years by at least 150%
In steep market crash, the stocks like GSPL having higher valuation fall fast. Even good stocks like Petronet will also fall. However, downside for Petronet is limited, and upside much higher. In GSPL, the downside is more and upside limited. Both are good stocks though – however, Gujarat Chief Minister is interfering too much in Gujarat State owned companies. This is why I prefer Petronet where major share holders are who is who in this industry.
Will GSPL come down to Rs 60? It did come down to Rs 28 when I first recommended in spite of Chief Minister Mody’s antics to force state owned companies to donate more of their profits to the state.
Naresh Kumar
25 Feb 10 at 5:22 PM
Crazy measure In Latvia.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/24/latvias_great_depression?page=0,0
Martin
Goa India
Martin
25 Feb 10 at 4:15 PM
Hello Sir,
I am trying to plan my investments, please help me /correct me.
I have around 6 lacs which I plan to use as down payment for buying flat. (You had advised me to wait till March for the same). I am 32 years old; I can save approx 15K per month or 180000 per year (after paying EMI of 25K).
I plan to invest 60% in Equity and 40%in non equity.
In Equity
Mutual funds (40%)
Equity linked plans (20%)
Directly in market (40%)
Non Equity
Gold (30%)
PF / PPF (30%)
rest (40%)
Fixed Deposit / RD
LIC fixed return plans etc
Please advise me.
Regards,
Brawny M
Pune, India (1:20 PM)
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
I do not advise investing into mutual fund because most of the funds cheat the investors. I invested over Rs 400,000 in UTI Petro Growth Fund many years ago, when Reliance was at Rs 330 or about before split. The fund had invested 15% oif assets in that company. Even after many years, my funds valuation remain almost same, when the Reliance has gone to 8 times. These funds transfer profitable position to losing funds to show better performance.
I suggest you reduce proposed exposure to Mutual Funds from 20% t just 10%, and invest in solid funds. I do not suggest any, but go for funds such as Templeton, Vanguard etc. Not lousy UTI or similar from business houses.
For LIC, better use simple Endowment Policy with Anticipatory type – that is – after 10 or 15 years, LIC pay you every five years, and yet the life risk remain same. Do not go for Equity linked policy.
Reduce Gold exposure from 30% to 20% and let the balance remain with FD on 3 years or forward.
Also open Recurring Deposit account for Rs 250, 150, 100 per month maturing 8, 9 and 10 years. After seventh year, you will get handsome amount for your housefold needs. Do not borrow against it to place it in equity. Treat RD as god and avoid touching it until maturity period.
Brawny M
25 Feb 10 at 3:59 PM
Sir,
Comparing UCO Bank with the United Bank ipo and Dena Bank, isn’t it cheaper as its operations are much bigger. I hold both UCO and Dena. Do I switch from Dena to UCO ?
Regards
Hem, Mumbai
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Both are equally cheaper. However, UCO has better profile and growth is phenomenal. Even after FPO, UCO will have very little dilution, and its interest cost will go down by Rs 28 crores at least. Every little savings count. Stay with what you have. Do not develop habit of switching too often.
Hem
25 Feb 10 at 3:17 PM
RCOM bought at 178 qty 1000. Should i buy at lower or get rid of this. Looks like their global telcom assets are for sale .
If i switch what should I buy?
Thanks
george, hackettstown, NJ
George varkey
25 Feb 10 at 1:14 PM
Announcement:
It is time to increase exposure to Indian equities by 15% (Total 25%) due to recent correction in the market prices of our favored stocks.
Buy more of State Refineries like BPCL, HPCL, IOC, MRPL
Prefer some infrastructure stocks like Ruchi Infrastructures
Cement stocks are better than metal stocks
Gas stocks are still my favored choice
Accumulate Evenix, Dish TV, Petronet, GSPL, GAIL
Raw Cotton prices are rising fast. They may gain, so also the pure Textile stocks whose margin will widen. Abhishek, Arvind, Bombay Dyeing, Century Textile are the stocks to watch with more emphasis on integrated cotton producers
Anil Selarka
25 Feb 10 at 1:11 PM
Dear Sir, you have recommended ABHISHEK INDUSTRIES to buy. I want to ask that its profit has been declined in this quarter and expenses been increasing, why it may go up with such negative factors?
Naresh, Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 25, 2010
Many of the earning items are seasonal. So do not expect uniform pattern for all quarters. Further, it has significant exposure to Foreign Exchange. Such details are not shown in the balance sheets, so we can not analyze well. I see growth in sales/revenue. If the company sells, it will make profits one day, and such profit rise will be highly leveraged. I trust 1000 crore company in small cap
naresh
25 Feb 10 at 2:00 AM
Dear Sir,
I have one more query. With the goal of clarity, I am asking it separately. I have 7000 RNRL at 45 (CMP 60). This is like 50% of
my portfolio. This script has been falling every day. What will be your advice? My other holdings are:
India Cement-500 at 200 (CMP 115)
Dish TV: 1000 at 39 (CMP: 37.15)
Satyam: 1250 at 63.5 (CMP: 95.6)
Thanks,
v8r, Stockholm, Sweden.
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 25, 2010
due to legal battle, RNRL is unlikely to show you major short term profits. The stock did go to 92 after you had bought. When it was 10% down from peak, you could have sold some. Other stocks are all good one. Buy India Cement some more (500 at least or even 800)
v8r
24 Feb 10 at 6:32 PM
Dear Sir,
As you suggested couple of days ago, I purchased 500 Satyam at 97 and 1000 Dish TV 39. These two scripts have gone down a bit more since then. What is the price level you suggested to but more of these two for averaging?
Thanks,
v8r, Stockholm, Sweden.
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 25, 2010
20% down from your current level. 5% to 10% movement in such stocks, especially DishTV is normal.You buy when the stock is abnormally down.
v8r
24 Feb 10 at 6:27 PM
kalidas,
i was found this stock as a value buy for long term prospective please let me know your view on it
beckons industries (531937) CMP 10.05
Bilal
Delhi , India
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 25, 2010
Unless you have bought the stock and in r trouble, I do not look at the stock unless it is my favorite. There are over 6000 stocks – I really have no time to follow each stock individually.
Bilal Vohra
24 Feb 10 at 4:42 PM
Portfolio Levels
Dear Sir,
I am invested around 15% in the market, holding the balance in Cash. I sold off a lot of my portfolio (50% invested earlier) after reading your article and managed to save losses of around 10% on the portfolio.
Would you recommed drip feeding into the market and increasing this to 30% levels (as you had recommended to Pawan, in a different context).
Regards
Mehr,
Delhi, India, 24 Feb 2010
Mehr
24 Feb 10 at 3:30 PM
IOC/MRPL/BPCL/HPCL/LIC Housing Finance
Dear Sir,
In of yours posts you had shared your positive views on the above stocks (IOC/MRPL/BPCL/HPCL/LIC Housing Finance).
It would be very helpful to me if you could also share the buy levels for these scrips.
Shri Ashtavinayak bounced back today with high volumes just when it went sub Rs 14. You were recommnending the stock below Rs 14 and is at limit up. I bought some today at 13.90. Thank you.
regards
Mehr
Delhi, India, 24 Feb 2010
Mehr
24 Feb 10 at 3:24 PM
RNRL
Dear Sir,
The above stock (RNRL) has the CMP of 60.90, quite close to your target buy price.
The stock has a PE of 135 and book value of 11.
Further, the company is involved in serious litigation with RIL which is still going on.
I read in one of your post a recommendation on this stock.
I hope I read it correctly, and if I did, I would really appreciate if you could share your reasoning for a buy on this stock.
regards
Mehr,
Delhi, India, 24 Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 25, 2010
Yes, you read it correctly. you have to consider future EPS, not the existing one. Its subsidiaries like Reliance Power is coming partially to operating stage. The earning picture is better. If they win the case against RIL, the stock will rise 150% in matter of days. I would buy and put it away.
Mehr
24 Feb 10 at 3:17 PM
Dear Sir-
Kindly share your view on BALMER LAWRIE (BSE CODE: BALMLAW) , its a diversified PSU with EPS of 67.5, @575 trading at 8.5 PE and divident yield @3.75%
Thanks,
Siva, Chennai
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 25, 2010
I have suggested it earlier as an excellent buy. It has zero debt balance sheet. However, its recent rise is due to privatization expectation. For this company, however, such expectations are fragile. In any case, buy it during weakness and stay with it for at least 2 years. The value will speak for itself.
Siva
24 Feb 10 at 1:51 PM
Dear Sir,Request advise on the following stock:
250 ISMT LIMITED @ Average cost 82.70; CMP 51
http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532479
Thanks,
Nitin, Mumbai,
INDIA
Nitin
24 Feb 10 at 12:38 PM
Sorry, I forgot name & country
Anil Doshi, Malaysia
Anil Doshi
24 Feb 10 at 8:26 AM
Dear Anilji,
I am currently holding physical gold and silver and small amount in stocks like dishtv, spicejet, uco & petronet. Balance cash will be invested in same stocks in the event of correction. I would also like to invest some more in stocks which will benefit from oil price increase. Please advise which stocks to look at and at what levels to buy. Thank you
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 25, 2010
Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably.
I am negative on oil price for next 6 months to 9 months. Yes, state owned refineries will benefit if my judgment of lower oil price turns true. Refinery stocks do better when the oil prices are down. Further, if government allows leeway for rise in oil retail prices to recover the subsidy, then Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum, Indian Oil Corporation, MRPL, Shiv vani Gas will benefit. Also the gas producers like GSPL, Petronet, Indraprashtha Gas, GAIL will benefit too. Some LPG gas bottlers and cylinder manufacturers will also benefit. As producer pure producers like CAIRNS, ONGC may lose out some thing, but the hybrid stocks (Producer + Refner) like Essar Oil, Reliance Industries, ONGC may benefit
Anil Doshi
24 Feb 10 at 8:25 AM
Kalidas ji,
Shree Ashtavinayaka is hitting lower circuits continuously and is now hovering around 14.15. Do you think this is a right price to enter or one have to wait till 10 levels.
Evinix Industries is also showing some weakness and is around 3.65 currently.
Though in a completely different business, which of the two scrips will yield good returns over 2 years period at current levels. I have Abishek industries around 15.0 levels but am inclined towards Evinix at the current market price.
Regards,
KeeYes
Tokyo, Japan
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 25, 2010
ShreeAshtaVinayak – I already mentioned it to buy <14 and it did hit $13.50 yesterday. Due to market weakness, I would following strategy. If you have bought the stock >20, better buy <14. If you are going to buy for the first time, better wait till the lower circuit is stopped and the stock begin to consolidate with 10% band from lowest price.
Evinix: As I mentioned before, enter <3.65. My buy level in 3 stages are 3.65, 3.35 and 3.10. Your preference for this counter is justified but it can not be compared with Abhishek which has over 1000 crores revenue.
Ashtavinayak is in risky film business, but I would prefer it to have good return and also offering short term trading platform.
KeeYes
24 Feb 10 at 8:18 AM
Dear Sir,
I wish to know your views and targets on IFCI.
My entire investment is on IFCI (200 shares bought at 52.40) CMP 48.45
As I am new to share market, please guide me.
Thanks & Regards,
R. Subha
Chennai,
India.
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 25, 2010
No change in views. This is the counter where you do not average with just 10% fall. My second stage of buying will be 41~43.50. The stock will go >80 if some good soaps allowed in this budget. Pray.
Subha
24 Feb 10 at 1:03 AM
Dear Sir ,
Would you recommend a buy of HUL (Hindustan uni lever ) at the CMP of 243 . And do you foresee any sops for the consumer goods industry as such during this budget .
Thanks & regards
Sajith
Chennai , India, Feb 23,2010
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 25, 2010
Yes, I mentioned it to buy when it reaches 230 – and it did last week.
sajith
23 Feb 10 at 9:45 PM
Dear Sir,
I have bought silver at Rs 28000/- .Could you pls advice what is your take on silver . Will it increase .
regds
Sameer
Durban
SouthAfrica
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 25, 2010
Read my article Gold $6400 and Silver $80 – it contains my views and they remain same.
Sameer Apte
23 Feb 10 at 7:51 PM
Kalidasjee
This guy seems to be echoing your thoughts.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaeViPPUVSw4&pos=2
Regards
Aditya
Mumbai-India
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 25, 2010
Typical American. He talks about sovereign default of other countries like Greece, but does not talk about United States itself. He portrays bleak picture, still does not provide explanation why in such scenario the dollar is up 9% in last few months, if some large American banks are going to fail.
People often peep into others’ houses, and even provide you with binoculars, when something is terribly wrong in their own homes.
Aditya
23 Feb 10 at 7:43 PM
Sir,
I have bought L&T finance NCD’s worth Rs.25,000 for 10 years time period.Interest at 10.25% p.a. I want to know is it ok.
Regards
Badrinath, Bengaluru, India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Yes, it is okay.
badrinath
23 Feb 10 at 2:58 PM
Sir,
I have two general queries for you.
1. When do you expect markets to reach a level good for long term investing?
2. In the current trading markets, should a long-term investor have any exposure at all?
I am invested about 20% in the stocks you suggested like UcoBank, SpiceJet, Petronet and IOC.
Thanks in advance,
Pawan,
Delhi, India.
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 23, 2010
The markets are not free. It is in the hands of government manipulators. The Dow today is at 10,400 and in 1987 it was 2700. Almost everyone is talking about recession worse than 1930 – then in that case – why Dow today is nearly 4 times or 400% of 1987 level? I do not have answer.
You are all in good stocks. You can increase the exposure upto 30% if any of your stock is trading below your first purchase level by at least 12 to 15% or about. The quality never fails. You have not bought DishTV which may be bought upto 5% of your portfolio.
pawan
23 Feb 10 at 1:47 PM
Hi,
Some of the Government divestment through FPO have failed badly to attract retail investors. Will this impact future FPO’s ? They could have sold it only to Institutional investors. Is there any mandatory rule for retail participation in this FPO/IPO?
Regards
Anand Siva
Sydney
23-Feb-2010
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 23, 2010
The government is always late in divestment. When the market rises, it wait days and days to divest itself of its stakes in PSU. For instance, the government did not divest quickly when IFCI went upto Rs 120 level. When the talks failed and markets crashed, the stock slumped by 90% to as low as Rs 16. Again, the government did not buy more from the market when the IFCI had its own value above Rs 108 because Sterlite bid at Rs 92 was not accepted.
The government has to identify the institution for divestment and keep entire structure ready without further modification. When the time comes, it has to just strike a deal within 3 days. Had the government divested itself from various PSU from 16000 to 21000 level, it would have made or realized over Rs 300,000 crores. It could have wiped out entire budget deficit, reduced its public debt to almost zero, brought down the interest rates below 4% and boosted GDP of the country in the region of 12% to 15% outstripping even China, and permitted it to reduce personal and corporate taxation by 30% from current level. The market would have risen to over 30,000 with the rest of investment value in PSU rising to almost pre-sale level, that is, the government stake could have been retained in value terms at same level as before with almost Rs 600,000 crores profits lying in its pocket. Which government in the world is making that kind of money? India could have been the only country in the world with budget surplus, zero debt and extremely well managed economy.
The financial decisions require razor sharp brain and trained horse like speed. This is where the GOI proves that it is still in bullock cart age.
ANAND SIVA
23 Feb 10 at 11:57 AM
What price range can we buy Rcom for long term (1 year)?
What is your price target in a year’s time?
Princeofindia
Abu Dhabi
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 23, 2010
As informed on number of occasions, the markets are weak and the troubles are developing on all fronts. At the moment, the market is only for the traders – not for investors. However, you may buy this counter only <120. At the moment, it is showing marked weakness. If at all you want to buy, you may buy 40% of desired quantity. I have yet to figure out why the company’s profitability is under pressure, when the revenue stream remain intact. I therefore can not give you any target for the time being.
princeofindia29
23 Feb 10 at 6:01 AM
Sir,
I have one lac rupee to invest for 1 year and would like you to advice in which shares do i invest .
Regds
Sameer
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 23, 2010
IFCI 400 < 50; DishTV 500<40; Peteronet 300<73; GSPL 300<86; Abhishek Ind 600<15 and Evinix 2000<3.65
Sameer Apte
22 Feb 10 at 11:45 PM
Dear Sir,
I have 1 Lah rupee to invest. I am thinking of buying 1000 Dish TV (CMP 39) and 500 Satyam (CMP 97). Should I g ahead or wait for more correction?
Thanks,
v8r, Stockholm, Sweden.
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 22, 2010
The answer is YES
v8r
22 Feb 10 at 5:51 PM
Dear Kalidas,
I lost 30,000$ doing shortterm Trading on the stock MT. (Arcelor Mittal ) Lost 20,000$ in 20 days.
example: Shorted 1500 MT for 42$ covered for 49 $and bought for 48$ sold for 42$
Was doing short when it was going up and long when it was going down.
I badly need to recover part of the money.
Can you please let me know whether I should be short ot Long on MT for
the short term?
Name: Anil Surya
St.Paul,
USA
Dt: 21st Feb, 2010
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 22, 2010
In stock investment, one fundamental principle is “Know your Stock” just as in business there is paradigam “Know your customer”. if you want to indulge in trading game, especially on leveraged basis, you have to know the stock and the industry for at least 3 months. You have to play a “demo’ game to ensure that you understood the game properly.
When you want to short the stock, you have to allow the stock to rise for at least 2 or 3 sessions. If after selling short, the stock goes still higher, you sell even more to “average up” your sale price (just as you average down when the stock goes down after buying). The “short sale’ game is much safer than going long game. 99% people buy long, only 1% sell short.
You were panicky after selling short. You can maintain “short position” for almost a year in United States. The fact that you got out of it within 20 days shows that you did not have enough market knowledge.
I never give advise on leveraged trades nor in very short period game. I can give you broad advise, which I have repeated often in this column, that metal prices are on 6 to 9 months decline. Copper will have larger correction than any other metal. The steel prices too will correct more that affect the steel industr stocks.
I can not be specific, because you have know the industry, stocks, currencies, and the market before undertaking leveraged trades. Until the time you have enough balance of mind and patience, continue to trade on paper. It will sharpten your knowledge. Yes, reality is always different than paper trades, but even then you will be more right than wrong.
HARRY
22 Feb 10 at 11:26 AM
Hi,
Renuka Sugars buys Brazil’s Equipav SA. Can you please comment on this. I Have 100 shares @ 225Rs/. CMP is Rs 179/-. Can I average it out or wait for further downside. Whats is your view on this sector?
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/cons-products/food/Renuka-Sugars-buys-Brazils-Equipav-SA-for-Rs-1530-cr/articleshow/5601293.cms
Regards
Anand Siva
Sydney
22-Feb-2010
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 22, 2010
No opinion. I do not follow sugar stocks. they are much dependent on politics, vote banks and import policy from time to time. Yes, Brazil is great producer of Sugar, mainly from beetroot, not sugarcane. The company may gain in currency but lose on pricing because I take the view that Brazil real will rise faster than Indian rupees.
ANAND SIVA
22 Feb 10 at 10:53 AM
Sir,
It is sounding a big alarm and is expecting a great fall.I can see a great coincidence of your views with this article. Interesting to read on:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1266614894.php
with regds
Sathya
Chennai,India
20-02-2010
sathya
21 Feb 10 at 1:15 AM
Hello Mr. Kalidas, Can you please enlighten me on this stock, UFLEX, it’s EPS is 16+ on a face value of 10. I had been following this stock and it swings between 90 and 109. Request your opinion on this equity.
Vijay Bhaskar, Bangalore
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 22, 2010
The very first mistake you made was in comparing the price, EPS with face value. Only in India, the people bother about face value. No where in the world that anyone refers to “face value” even once in a year except India. it is indication of immature markets and investors.
I can not give you much guidance about this company because it appears to have issued FCCB whose dilutive effectgs are not known. Further, their acquisition and quick disposal does not inbspire confidence. on the face of it, it is a good company. The stock does not move up in tandem with EPS for simple reason that there could be hangover of dilutive effect of FCCB.
The company also did not provide for redemption premium on FCCB on presumption that the FCCb would be converted into ordinary shares, and therefore, there could not be any redemption liability. This is dangerous presumption. When the equity markets are rickety, the company management should have sided with caution. This is where the most managements make critical mistakes.
The dividend yield is good but may not be maintained, profits are good and EPS looks higher due to small capital base. Yes, the stock could gain significantly if the company issues bonus shares which is likely if cash resources are strained.
May be one can buy some stock but I refrain away until I am seized of the facts about FCCB outstanding, its dilutive effect on earnings. The company is on right industry, the cost of its inputs will go down over next 10 months, which may help the company to lower the cost and expand the margin.
Not a bad stock to own. But the number of shares are very limited. Unless the stock splits or liberal bonus is announced, the rise in stock prices appear muted. Nevertheless, the stock could be a good choice in correction.
Vijay Bhaskar
21 Feb 10 at 1:05 AM
Thanks for your below reply to my earlier question.
please suggest few companies in this growth area for a Investment for 3 to 4 year of time zone.
Rashes -
Ghatkopar – India.
Pl. guide which could be the next big growth Sector for India Stock Market & when it is likely.
Which stocks within those Sector / vertical we must buy for Multiple gains.
Rashes.
Ghatkopar – Mumbai.
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Entertainment – India is a country of music, bhajans, noises, serials, movies, dramas which activity is seeing strong rise. The quality of BollyWood and Indian TV cinema has risen much faster. It is now gaining momentum. When the stalwarts like Stephen Spielburg are roped in, the Bollywood may soon be giving stiff competition to Hollywood. The media like one described need lot of creativity, and it is now open knowledge from various TV shows that the creativity of Indians are on stupendous rise.
Ports, Roads and Infrastructures: Now we have more wider roads than ever before. This is how China started its growth. After few years of building ports and roads, China provided enough platform for Chinese industries to grow on their own
Auto Sector If the roads are wider and without pot holes, the demand for speedier and wider Auto rises. All along, India had narrow roads and allys which resulted in growth of Two wheelers like Scooters. Two wheelers grew into three wheelers (Auto rikshas) and are now graduating into four wheelers, that is, Cars. Maruti 800, small cars, are phased out in favour of wider and bigger cars. The growth of two w
Rashes
20 Feb 10 at 8:29 PM
The Chinese seem to be warming up.
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers37/paper3677.html
Martin
Goa India
Martin
20 Feb 10 at 5:13 PM
Dear Sir,
Am planning to invest around 50K INR per month on following stocks for medium term of 1 year.
Bartronics 10%
Cinimax 10%
Glenmark Pharma 10%
SCI 20%
Sun TV 10%
City Union Bank 15%
Lanco Infra tech 15%
Options/Trading 10%
Can you guide me if with this portfolio ,it is reasonable to expect 15-20% annualised return.
Best Wishes,
Venkataraman
Chennai
20.2.2010
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 22, 2010
I do not follow most of your stocks. I can not provide portfolio solution as desired by you. It would take at least 4 hours for me to go through your selections.
venkataraman
20 Feb 10 at 3:42 PM
There are very good chances that the Govt will reform the oil pricing of retail fuels in India in a few days. I have bouhgt HPCL & IOC in anticipation. You have avocated OMCs case in your past writings. Any new insight in view of the recnt developments.
Vivek
20 Feb 2010
New Delhi. India.
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 23, 2010
None. I doubt whether government will be liberal enough to allow free pricing. If they did, it is fine, and in that case my original target of all SOE refineries to give over 500% in 3 years will be a reality. These are the only stocks for real long term investors – this market or that market
Vivek
20 Feb 10 at 1:53 PM
KalidasJi
I am sure you have seen the News – Soros doubles gold investment: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8521680.stm Interestingly, he earlier had said Gold was ultimate bubble.. Would love to hear your comments on this.
Sayaji Hande
New Delhi, India
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 22, 2010
Prime days of Soros are over. He is frequently changing tune. May be he is not getting good inside info as he used to before when he was active Hedge Fund manager. To me, he is a spent force. Let him retire for time being until he catches his old touch.
Sayaji Hande
20 Feb 10 at 8:50 AM
Hello Sir,
I am planning to buy Electrosteel casting (BSE: 500128 | NSE: ELECTCAST ) CMP 46.
More than 50 years old company, Company Manufacture steel castings, grinding media and spun-cast iron pipes.
Please provide your valuable advice about this company in Short Term and Long Term.
Regards,
Brawny M
Pune India
6:00 PM
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 22, 2010
Although the EPS looks cheap, the company may come to production of its new plants. All interest and depreciation expenses that were capitalized would be debited to Profit and Loss account. With almost Rs 300 crores of capital work in progress account about to be brought to regular Capital Fixed Assets account, the interest and depreciation expense will rise by about Rs 90 crores which may bring down the profit to almost losses. We do not know how much additional capacity will contribute.
I am negative on metal stocks for at least 6 to 9 months. I will allow few months more to pass to see actual numbers in July before investing aggressively. You may buy some at the moment if you like the company.
Brawny M
19 Feb 10 at 8:22 PM
Dear Anilbhai,
I have sent a mail to you for your guidance as i am in Mumbai. Please provide your valuable inputs.
Regards,
The Monk, Singapore
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 19, 2010
If you send me email at personal level, do not post reminders here. I will reply there. Please be discreet in future.
The Monk
19 Feb 10 at 2:03 PM
Dear Kalidas,
In response to Ravi’s query on Navneet Publications, you have stated that the dividend yield is over 5%. I guess, you have referred to moneycontrol and got this information. Note that moneycontrol doe not consider bonus or stock split after the dividend date to recalculate the percentage. In this case, Navneet had given a 3:2 bonus (3 new shares for 2 held) and hence the effective dividend yield comes to about 2%. Since I had also overlooked this factor while buying some other stock, I thought I should share this with you and your readers.
Regards,
Bhushan, Dallas, US, Feb 18, 2010.
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 19, 2010
Thanks. Indian websites are most dangerous websites in the world. If such information were published in USA, they could have been sued for millions of dollars. I am now very careful about bonus and splits issue which are rampant nowadays. We never come to know what is the ex date and record dates.
Almost all promoters in India are on looting mission. They have been splitting and bonusing the shares in large ratio to boost the stock prices. I though Navneet was a good company. Now I think that it is not such a good company after all.
In Hong Kong, the announcement for bonus shares always contain information about the Ex Date and Record date. This is usually built in. In India, it is not. Why not SEBI make it compulsory so that the investors are not cheated out? It is the fundamental responsibility of SEBI, NSE and BSE as regulator and stock exchanges to ensure that all price sensitive information are disclosed properly in any announcement relating to bonus, earnings and splitting of shares. Otherwise, these institutions are not worth their names.
This is the reason I a back in shell for a few days just to recompose myself.
Bhushan
19 Feb 10 at 11:16 AM
Dear Sir,
Do you see any long/short term impact of the discount rate hike by Fed?
Harish Vyas
San Diego, USA
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 19, 2010
Neutral. Discount rates do not affect the market except psychologically. Read my comments on Stock Observatory in this regard. I was delayed in posting the comment as I was out of office for most of the day.
Harish Vyas
19 Feb 10 at 10:58 AM
Dear Sir,
I want to invest Rs.2000 every month to purchase one or two stocks for next 10years. Please suggest me good stock on which I can invest this amount to have better returns after 10 years.
Thanks
Radhakrishnan
Chennai
India
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 19, 2010
LIC Housing Finance and Petronet. Allocate 50% for LICHF and 50% for Petronet.
Radhakrishnan
18 Feb 10 at 11:26 PM
Dear Anilji,
Following is the News item on Proposed Gold Selling by IMF.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B10OV20100218
Thanks.
Parag
Surat
India
18-2-2010
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 19, 2010
It is old news. It is remaining portion after sale of 200 tons to India. It will not have lasting effect. There are many Central Banks as buyers. IMF can sell only to Central Banks, not in the market, by its charter.
Parag, Surat
18 Feb 10 at 11:47 AM
Dear Sir,
Gold contracts for Dec 2009 Open Interest were 17,426 contracts = $2 Billions worth @ 1180. They have been rolled over to February 2010 where the Open Interest had risen to “361915″contracts = US$ 39.7 billions @ US$ 1100/Ounce. And again they have been rolled over to April 2010 contracts but this time the open interest has reduced to 283617 contracts = US$ 31.8 billions@ US$ 1110/Ounce
Do you think cumulative risks of US$ 31.8 billions is such a big risks for shorting banks to worry about. Do you read any meaning in reduced open interest in rolling over from Feb to April 2010
Regards,
NSri,
Pune, India
NSri
18 Feb 10 at 6:44 AM
Oil change may be an overhaul???
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b6b4700a-10fb-11df-9a9e-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1
Martin
Goa India
Martin
18 Feb 10 at 2:33 AM
Thanks for your reply sir.
Please share your views on Navnet Publications.
Whether investing now in this stock is worth?
Regards,
Ravi
Trichy, Tamil Nadu, India.
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 19, 2010
Good company with solid earning base. good dividend payer too – yields over 5%. However, expensive at the moment. Ripe for taking profit for the time being. Enter again at 33 to 36 again.
Ravi
18 Feb 10 at 12:03 AM
Sir,
I bought the first lot of Shree Ashtavinayak Cine Vision at Rs.21.85. For the last few session it is lower circuit freeze. CMP 17.30
When I do the second lot purchase
R.Yuvaraj
Chennai, TN
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 17, 2010
I have already clarified that I did not know about the bonus issue. As explained to other reader, the correct price of entry may be below Rs 14 or even less. If the stock goes higher, better sell 40% of your holding with a view to buying back. There is nothing wrong with their business. It is just that the company pumped up the stock to dizzy height, withholding price sensitive information, dumped the stocks at higher level from Rs 25 to Rs 30 and now wants to buy back all those shares at less than 50% of peak price. I also bought some stocks at Rs 22.50 but the quantity was negligible. I will buy second time only when the lower circuit stops and the stock comes below Rs 12 to Rs 14 or in deep market correction. Buy some below Rs 14 not before. The price difference from your level and now is not that high for small value stock (in % terms it may seem higher)
R.Yuvaraj
17 Feb 10 at 11:45 AM
Sir,
Do you see a pre-budget or post-budget rally in our markets – even if its a temporary upside move towards 17000 on sensex?
After liquidating my positions in jan-feb period im sitting with idle cash. Do you see any better use for it at the moment in markets?. Any suggestions on which are the better bets?.
regards
Raghav,
Mumbai,
India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Kindly do not ask such questions – they are useful only for F&O players. We see the valuable stocks and invest. That is what makes most money, and we are sticking to that. We do not gamble on what is in the mind of policy makers. We reply on facts and then wait for right time to buy.
Raghav
17 Feb 10 at 9:35 AM
Dear Kalidasji,
Dec numbers are updated today. China sold 34B worth US Treasuries. Just wanted to draw your attention. This must be a big news.
http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
Dongre, Mumbai, India, Feb 16/2010, 10:27 IST
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Thanks. This is why Obama wants to meet Dalai Lama and sell arms to Taiwan to create instability in this region. They are also playing out the bubble scenario in China. These guys do not look at within their own country and go on lecturing others how to manage their countries. They are suckers.
Dongre
17 Feb 10 at 12:59 AM
Dear Sir,
DO you think that after recent 15% fall in stock of Bharti Airtel it is a stock worth investing?
I have 100@350 CMP: 272
BSE: 532454 | NSE: BHARTIARTL | ISIN: INE397D01024
They operate in telecom, DTH digital TV and internet broadband play.
Do you think telecom story is dead in India or it has miles to go? Everyone was showing stars for this sector and now in 6 months it is the worst sector to be in. Please advice as this is really confusing for all small investors.
I can keep this stock for long time.
I would extend the same question for RCOM as I have 515@225 Rs.
Thanks,
Harsh Patel Ahmedabad, India.
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 17, 2010
May be it is a trading buy with a view to selling at first opportunity. Take your own chance. Further, telephone story is not dead in India. However, Bharti is not investing more in India – they are investing 10 times more in Africa.
The deal is good, but where is the money to finance it if it is a cash deal? Africa will not give them enough profit margin. The sellers are not stupid in selling these assets at bargain price. You can not make money by borrowing huge amount when the rates are on rise.
Expect heavily diluted Rights issue or FPO in future (may be below Rs 180 or so) . The company has just become reckless, and I was right in switching into other stocks like RCOM. This guy Mittal does not learn from the huge mistakes made by Tata and Birla in acquiring Corus, Jaguar and the Aluminum company in North America at the peak of the cycle (stock market) and when the rates are going to rise very abruptly. He (Mittal) could have waited for steep market correction.
Harsh Patel
17 Feb 10 at 12:18 AM
I am a silent reader of your blog.
I am holding 1000 IFCI shares @ 54.65 bought on 19 Jan 2010. I wish to know whether the stock will move up before budget.
Need your suggestion on swapping my investment from IFCI to Navnet Publications.
NAVNET PUBLICATIONS
NSE CODE: NAVNETPUBL
CMP: 50.55 (16 Feb 2010)
52wk high / low : 105.35 /36.40
Regards
Ravi,
Trichy, Tamil Nadu, India.
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
The government usually makes some announcement relating to IFCI. That was when IFCI was in trouble. Now that it is out of trouble into healthy institution, we have to see what is the possible GOI policy. I do not expect much.
IFCI and NAVNET Publications are totally different industry. They are not comparable. I would not dare to compare the relative merit.
Ravi
16 Feb 10 at 9:11 PM
In your reply to Venkatesh you have mentioned that there is not much choice for Zero coupon bonds in India. There is a news item that NABARD is likely to come out with “Bhavishya Nirman Bonds” the Zero coupon bonds by end of March this year. Similar Bonds were available in 2008 for a short time. We will need to keep track of the release.
This is for your information.
Mohan , Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
What you are referring to NABARD are generally Zeros for short term tenure. What we meant for Zeros were for 25 to 30 years maturity, which is called Deep Discount Zero Coupon Bonds. For short term zeros are like cumulative fixed deposits or Cash certificates for 5 years or so, which are better choices due to liquidity. At the moment, there is no zero coupon bonds having maturity of minimmum 25 years.
Mohan
16 Feb 10 at 9:11 PM
DIFFERENCE OF PRICE of TATA MOTORS /TATA MOTORS DVR
Why there is a difference of more than 30% between them even through the difference is only in respect of voting rights whereas DVRS get 5% extra divident.
Balchender
Secunderabad
India
16 Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
I have no idea. I saw that item before but could not get information over the net. Ask the Company Secretary to inform you the difference or findout the terms of issue. It look like it is more like warrant or partly paid share. Again, I do not know.
Balchender
16 Feb 10 at 5:25 PM
sir,
i have bought a script on recommended by a blog, but now i am stuck and i am confused as to hold it or sell please advice me. i am copying that blog under:
script name : Consolidated Finvest & Holdings Limited
CMP : 63 NSE
CONSOLIDATED FINVEST & HOLDINGS LIMITED CMP: Rs 86
NSE SYMBOL: CONSOFINVT only listed in NSE
Consolidated Finvest & Holdings Ltd is a part of B.C Jindal Group, a 50-year old industrial group.
Shri B.C Jindal’s group is into manufacturing of Pipes and Pipe Fittings, Group is diversified into
Polyester Film, BOPP Film, Photographic Goods, Cold Rolled Steel Strips, Galvanized Sheets,
Metallised Films etc. SEE SEZ LINC..
isidelhi . org . in / hrnews / HR_THEMATIC_ISSUES/Landacq/Land%20Acq-2008 .
Consolidated Finvest and Holding Ltd was formed in 2004 as a Holding company just like other peer
company Nalwa Sons Investments Ltd and Jindal Southwest Holding Ltd.
Consolidated Finvest and Holding Ltd is listed at NSE, it is a holding company and holds investments in
all the companies under the B.C. Jindal Group.It own following subsidiary 1) Jindal Photo Investments
Ltd. 2) Jindal India Finvest & Holdings Ltd 3) Jesmin Investments Ltd.
Consolidated Finvest & Holding Ltd along with its subsidiary companies hold stake in Jindal Polyfilms
Ltd, Jindal Photo Ltd, Jindal India Ltd, Jindal Thermal Power Ltd. It’s Consolidated Reserve along with
its subsidiary companies stand at Rs 666 Crore.
One of its subsidiary M/s Jesmin Investment Ltd hold 8.66 percent stake in Asian Hotel Ltd which is
quoted at Rs 525, along with this its total quoted investment is more then Rs 150 Crore. This can also
be verified from Asian Hotel Ltd shareholding pattern at BSE.
Consolidated Finvest is a promoter of Jindal Polyfilms ltd and hold stake in the company, its total
holding is valued more than Rs 250 Crore, it also hold stake in other group companies i.e Universal
Foils Ltd, Rishi Trading Co. Ltd, Soyuz Trading Co. Ltd, Vigil Farms Ltd, Jindal Buildmart Ltd which are
not listed. Soyuz Trading and Rishi Trading Co., Ltd are co promoter of Jindal Thermal Power Ltd which
is setting up 5000 MW power plant in different states of India. Consolidated Finvest and Holding Ltd
also hold stake in Jindal India Ltd which is unlisted firm and have sales more then Rs 700 Crore.
As per annual report of the company, Consolidated along with its subsidiary hold units of Mutual Fund
and bonds in National Housing Bank, the total value stand at more then Rs 79 Crore. The value was
calculated at 31st March,2009 since then the value of investment must have appreciated very fast as
sensex has more then double from March,2009.
Total Investment in group companies along with reserve is more then Rs 1000 Crore against that its
equity stands at Rs 32.33 Crore. Equity stake is distributed as follows: Promoters hold 71.54 percent,
FII Acacia Institutional hold 8.62 percent, Corporate Bodies at 2.94 percent, Public Holding stand at just
at approx 15 percent. It is interesting to note that FII-Acacia Institutional hold stake in Nalwa Sons
Investment ltd and in Jindal Southwest Holding Ltd and also in Consolidated Finvest and Holding Ltd.
For the year ending 2008-9, Consolidated Finvest and Holding net profit on Consolidation basis stand
at Rs 44.52 Crore which gives EPS of Rs 13.77 on equity of Rs 32.33 Crore.
Its peer company Nalwa Sons is quoted at Rs 1250, Jindal Southwest Holding Ltd at Rs 1800 while
Consolidated Finvest and Holding Ltd quotes only at Rs 86 . At current market price it total market cap is
just Rs 200 Crore, Industry PE for such holding company stand at 60 and considering EPS of Rs13.77
(for 2008-9) it should quote more then Rs 600.
Consolidated Finvest and Holding Ltd along with its subsidiary have reserve at Rs 666 Crore which is
more then its peer company Nalwa Sons Investment Ltd have reserve of RS 650 CRORE and Jindal Southwest Holding Ltd HAVE RESERVE OF RS 606 CRORE
FII Acacia Institutional hold stake in Nalwa Sons Investment Ltd, Jindal Southwest Holding Ltd and also
in Consolidated Finvest and Holding Ltd which makes this company more interesting. Considering all
above parameter Consolidated Finvest and Holding Ltd should quote more then Rs 400-450 within a
very short span of time.
regards
dainy
raipur
india
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Kindly do not reproduce others quote verbatim. Just provide the link. It takes too much of space. This post is marked for deletion.
dainy
16 Feb 10 at 2:03 PM
Sir,
In reply to my last question you said you can sense my anger because I am in a high tech industry. Yes I am an IT professional but trust me there was and there is no anger. And when I said ‘no reply expected’, I said it because I did not and do not want to take up your valuable time.
I am a knowledge seeker and I wish to know more and more about everything going on this world. That is why I am attracted to your blog. Making money out of stocks is only the secondary purpose.
I thank you for the time and energy you put into maintaining this blog.
Thanks very much.
Pawan,
Delhi, India
pawan
16 Feb 10 at 1:17 PM
Sir,
Good to see you back. These days it appears that i’ve got addicted to seeing some action in the markets & seeing your comments & views
Unlike last time (in 2007-08) when markets sank due to subprime fever, this time nearly everyone is expecting bad things to happen. Every other media is talking about sovereign default of greece & the markets seem to be waiting like vultures to feast on that event. I was just wondering, what if it doesnt turn out to be so bad !? just curious. What if , through backchannel negotiations, the most expected event is curtailed !!
regards
Raghav
Mumbai,India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
In that case, no one will believe in God or Nature’s self balancing acts. If humans are supreme, the God and nature will take a back seat. It is not going to happen, so all expectations will be dashed when the reality is faced by all investors and governments.
Raghav
16 Feb 10 at 1:37 AM
Sir,
A country like USA, almost bankrupt, do you think in future any reverse impact on IT(Information Technology) companies ?
Thanks,
Ashok ,Mumbai India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
If nation’s finances are bankrupt does not mean everyone or every company is bankrupt. The companies like IBM, Apple are turning in billions of dollars even now. Do not equate “nation” with “nationals”
Ashok
15 Feb 10 at 11:33 PM
Pl. guide which could be the next big growth Sector for India Stock Market & when it is likely.
Which stocks within those Sector / vertical we must buy for Multiple gains.
Rashes.
Ghatkopar – Mumbai.
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Entertainment – India is a country of music, bhajans, noises, serials, movies, dramas which activity is seeing strong rise. The quality of BollyWood and Indian TV cinema has risen much faster. It is now gaining momentum. When the stalwarts like Stephen Spielburg are roped in, the Bollywood may soon be giving stiff competition to Hollywood. The media like one described need lot of creativity, and it is now open knowledge from various TV shows that the creativity of Indians are on stupendous rise.
Ports, Roads and Infrastructures: Now we have more wider roads than ever before. This is how China started its growth. After few years of building ports and roads, China provided enough platform for Chinese industries to grow on their own
Auto Sector If the roads are wider and without pot holes, the demand for speedier and wider Auto rises. All along, India had narrow roads and allys which resulted in growth of Two wheelers like Scooters. Two wheelers grew into three wheelers (Auto rikshas) and are now graduating into four wheelers, that is, Cars. Maruti 800, small cars, are phased out in favour of wider and bigger cars. The growth of two wheelers will be gradually go down over 10 years, not immediately.
And of course, Housing. Any industry associated with housing market growth. The list is unlimited. You name it you got it.
Rashes
15 Feb 10 at 8:27 PM
Sir, In your reply to Krishna V, you have correctly highlighted how in the service sector of salaried class, the infotech employees are positioned in the island of high wages. But, I expected that you would not give single option of rise in rupee in dollar terms as panacea to reduce the purchasing power of a miniscule of population.
vc sekar, Delhi, India
15/02/2010
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Purchasing power of every Indian will remain same if the Rupee value rises in exchange terms. If Petrol is sold at Rs 58 per liter and after revaluation of rupee it is available at Rs 50 per liter,it means that the purchasing power of every Indian will rise by 16% whether he is in infotech industry or not.
Higher rupee means all imported goods become cheaper. Even the country’s debt currently at $ 108 billion will be reduced in rupee terms. The government needs less rupees to buy same amount of dollar. The oil, coal, metal, pulses and palm oil prices will come down reducing the risk of inflation. Lower oil and coal means that cost of electricity and gas will be lower, road and rail transportation cost too will be lower. There will be more rupee to spare in consumer’s pocket.
Strong currency brings prosperity in real terms. Those advocating weaker currency will bring ruins to the country and its masses.
vc sekar
15 Feb 10 at 8:12 PM
Dear Sir (Guru Ji)
I am just trying to understand basic theory of ‘Bonus Issues’.
If ‘Bonus Issues’ is 1 for 2 shares held (1:2); after bonus 1+2 =3
If I hold only 1 share then after bonus 0.5+1 =1.5. I believe its not possible to get have 1.5 shares therefore I have asked you this question.
After learning about ‘Bonus Issues’ through google search; As I understand the ‘Bonus Issues’ is issued in lue of paying Dividend to the investors. So does that mean that if I don’t get 0.5 share as Bonus then will I get this as dividend to compensate my loss of 0.5 Bonus share which I may not get since I hold only 1 share? (Please correct me if i am wrong)
I am basically trying to understand the difference between ‘Bonus Issue’ and ‘Stock Split’. In both this cases the ‘Bottom Line’ is that it does not increase the value of the company and the price adjusts accordingly.
This similar question may apply to ‘Stock Split’ as well?
Regards
Dabbu
Baroda, India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Bonus Share involve the process of capitalization of reserve into share capital with same face value.
For instance, if the company has 10 crore shares of Rs 10 FV (total Capital Rs 100 crores) and has Rs 300 crores as free reserve, and it decides to issue 2 crore shares of Rs 10 each as fully paid, then the Rs 20 crores will be debited to Reserve account and credited to share capital account.
Now, the company will have 10+2 = 12 croes shares, and Free Reserve will be reduced to Rs 280 crores (Rs 300cr – Rs 20cr).
In short, the reserve is now monetized into the hand of shareholder. He can now sell 2 bonus share in the marke, if he does not want to have more shares.
The most important thing is that a company can not issue Bonus Shares if it does not have distributable reserve. No reserve, no Bonus shares.
Split involves breaking up share in smaller value, whether there is reserve or not. A split involves dividing shares into smaller denomination. It increases the number of shares (like Bonus shares) but it reduces the face value (Bonus shares do not reduce face value)
When a company declares bonus shares or split the shares, it lays down the procedure how it will handle fractional shares. There is no provision to pay cash dividend in lieu of fractional shares. It all depends in each individual case.
Bonus Share are not dividend in strict sense, but they are in practical sense because it converts reserve into shares and given to the shareholder. It is for shareholder to think what he thinks.
In your question, you have to ask the Secretary or Registrar of the company how the fractional shares would be dealt with.
Dabbu
15 Feb 10 at 6:31 PM
Sir,
In reply to Krishna V’s question on food price inflation, you have said that salaries have gone up 10 times while good prices are up only 3 times and therefore they have gone up much less. This seems to imply that food prices should have also gone up 10 times. I do not agree with this. Because if all things go up the same as income then no one will be able to move up in his/her lifestyle. How would people be able to buy cars, homes, branded luxury items? It will be like running on a treadmill – running hard and still going nowhere.
Thanks,
Pawan,
Delhi, India
Note: No reply expected
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
You have mis-interpreted my reply which was merely showing the causes of inflation in India, especially the food prices. In stock market, the first stocks to go up are blue chips. We therefore say BSE or NIFTY has gone up, the market is up or good. If the market remain healthy, other stocks begin to catch up, first non index large stocks called mid caps and then small caps. This is “catching up” game. Similarly, in the main market, certain commodities rise in value depending on the demand and supply. After some time, other commodities which have been repressed or remain depressed for long time, begin to move higher. They are also playing “catching up” game. The food prices during last 20 years have remained under pressure due to hedge funds and certain governments depressing the prices deliberately using derivatives to control the inflation numbers.
Now that those derivatives have exploded, the pressure on prices have been released, so the food prices have begun to go higher. There is a saying in crude terms that “har kutte ka din aata hai” or every dog has its day.
The inflation hurts man on the street more than privileged few. He does not have enough bargaining power to raise his income level. They get rise in wages not due to productivity but collective bargaining power, called “Trade Unionism”. Their gains far lag behind the rise in prices.
Other privileged few raise their income by using their knowledge bank, their capacity, their ability, their professionalism. In short, they rely on their individual merits, not collective bargaining power of unions. The employees in government sectors rely more on the powers of their union and seniority in job rather than merits.
It is never suggested by me that all income level should foresee equivalent rise in the prices of all necessities. In India, the income level is increasing at faster pace than expenses, so there will be inflation at some time, whereas in USA, the expense level is exceeding income, due to result of unemployment. This is why there is deflation.
Apart from above, the excessive printing of money out of deficits, and deliberate weakening of national currency, increases the spectre of inflation.
In my book, Sub Prime Resolved” I have devoted entire chapter on inflation, interest rates, deflation and currency. I have mentioned that
“The Stock Market is barometer of inflation. The stocks usually rise when the profits rise, and profits rise if the prices rise. If the prices do not rise, the earnings do not rise, and in that case, the stocks have no reason to rise”
In USA, the earnings are on decline, so the stocks have no reason to rise. When 8.5 millions people lose jobs, it means that they are away from the centers of activity that “produces or provides or manufactures”. This is why I have maintained that US is highly overpriced market, and it has to correct severely downwards, if the production or demand activity does not pick up.
The inflation is not simple arithmetic as you have suggested that if the income rises, the prices should also rise by same proportion. Even within our own family, one member earns more than other while the environment remain same.
DO NOT POST with qualification that “Reply is not expected”. Whether to reply or not is my prerogative, not your rights. I can sense your anger in your post because you are involved in high tech industry where the rise in income is more due to increase in real demand and also over-inflating profits of the employing companies due to deliberate weakening of rupee. If the Rupee finds its own level, it could easily go to Rs 26 or even below, and in that case, the profits of all high tech companies will be down by over 50% to the extent of exchange rates (not real demand). In those cases, the employees salaries or compensations are reduced to face the realities. If the Rupee is allowed to rise freely in real free market, there will be even growth in every sector, not limited to export oriented sectors like high tech.
pawan
15 Feb 10 at 4:22 PM
Markets this week and Gold
Dear Sir,
I am eagerly awaiting your update on how you see the recent developments in the market. Also, I was going through your article on Gold. You are expecting gold to be at USD 1500 by March 2010. Do you think that would be achievable now ?
regards
Mehr
Delhi, 14 Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 15, 2010
I do not want to make running commentary on Gold. March is 45 days away. Only two days destroyed Toyota. You know what 45 days could do the damage if such stage is reached. Further, we have suggested Gold as effective hedge, so treat it that way. When the time comes, I will ask readers to reduce the position on gold and swap to other equity assets. There is enough time – over 2 to 3 years at least.
Mehr
14 Feb 10 at 12:25 PM
Bonus Issue:
If ‘Bonus Issues’ is 1 for 2 shares held (1:2) and I hold only 1 share then how do I get ‘Bonus Issues’ share?
And if I hold 3 shares then how many will it be after ‘Bonus Issues’. Will I loose in this case?
Regards
Dabbu,
Baroda, India
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 15, 2010
If you know the basic arithmetic you will know. Further, no one asks a question for gain or loss on one share in this column.
Dabbu
14 Feb 10 at 5:40 AM
GOLD AND ZERO COUPON BOND INVESTMENT
Dear Sir,
I am thinking of investing INR 2,00,000/- in physical gold to be bought from PSU bank (SBI) and in zero coupon bonds.
Kindly advise me in what proportion do I need to invest. I am willing to invest for a period of atleast 10 years.
Thanks,
Venkatesh,
Bangalore,
India,
13th Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 15, 2010
There is not much choice in India for Zero Coupon Bonds. Buying gold from banks in India is often “unprofitable propostions” due to their high mark ups by 10% and their practice of making only one way market. If you want to buy gold from gold bullion traders or refiners, better make a search. Some suggested in this column to some companies in Bangalore. Read all articles on Gold and comments thereunder. I do not keep track of those dealers.
Venkatesh
13 Feb 10 at 4:18 PM
Dear Kalidas,
I have an enquiry regarding the potential for Indian industry in the defence & security related activities/manufacturing.
Some companies such as Tata Motots, M&M & others are well positioned to reap large profits from this new opportunity.
I had asked this question before, but you had said that this is an opaque field & thus hard to predict.
Has your opinion changed, i.e have you had a chance to examine this investment opportunity? I think that this is a huge chance for investors to make money. In the present & forseeable scenario in India, this a massive shortcoming which has to addressed locally without any recourse to imports sustainable over the long term.
Vivek
New Delhi
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 15, 2010
The defense industry is tightly controlled in India. Personally, I do not know about the companies contributing to defense except companies like M&M and Tata who supply heavy trucks to the defense. Further, India is not supplying arms or ammunitions abroad – it is strongly domestic oriented. The defense industry will do well in times of war (say with Pakistan or China) but then the whole nation, economy and stock markets will be destroyed. Better to ignore such industry.
Vivek
13 Feb 10 at 1:43 AM
Dear Sir,
Trust your routine visit to the Doctor went off well . Sir , We were expecting a fall in the market , how ever the market showed no signs of any weakness and ended the week at 4827 . Your comments please . Do you foresee nifty touching 5000 levels ?
Thanks & regards
Sajith (12 feb 2010)
Chennai , India
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 15, 2010
I do not make day to day comment (except in stock observatory). I do not want to make prediction about NIFTY either. I do not track the indices as most people do. The normal investors invest into stocks on medium to long term basis. Others in F&O and NIFTY and SENSEX etc. I do not track them except making some broad calls.
sajith
12 Feb 10 at 6:31 PM
Dear Mr. Kalidas,
I have 15 lakhs in Cash and want to invest accordingly. I don’t have any loans. I don’t own an apartment either. I’m staying on a leased apartment with a lease amount of 10 lakhs and no rent to pay.
My questions:
1) Should I buy an apartment now in Bangalore? Are real estate prices expected to correct any more in Bangalore?
2) Should I wait and invest in equity market for better returns?
3) Should I start buying physical gold as investment in long term?
Ideally I would wish to do the three, but I think it will be of too much commitment and very less of cash left for me. Which one or what combination of the above is advisable? Please need your advice.
Thanks,
Aziz Ahmed,
Bangalore,
India
Feb 12, 2010
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Instead of living in leased apartment with no rent to pay but paying as much as Rs 10 lakhs is silly proposal. Of course, I do not have full details of your leased property like location, area, current market rates in that area etc. The properties in Bangalore is in consolidation mode. However, considering recent announcement of Info tech industries to recruit almost 100,000 personnel. it looks to me there will be more demand in Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, Pune and Mumbai due to more people seeking properties with higher EMI.
Further, if interest rates are raised in next two months, the Mortgage interest rates may spike, roping in bystanders, to lock in lower interest rates for at least 3 years or so.
You can buy some equity not exceeding 15% of your investment budget in select stocks commented here for some time. there is no change in our selection.
Gold is of course good buy even at current prices. However, if you have to chose between property and gold, in your case where you have already paid Rs 10 lakhs, better chose property.
Considering your situation, better buy some property now
Aziz Ahmed
12 Feb 10 at 6:20 PM
Sir,
The prices of food and other essential commodities are at all time highs in India. Rice, sugar, pulses and vegetable prices have already skyrocketed and now milk and petrol prices are also set to increase. With the common man having to spend more on essentials he is left with little to spend on other consumer products. Being from a manufacturing background I have realised that prices of almost all raw materials which have plant based origin have shot up alarmingly because farmers in India who used to grow these crops have started switching to food crops because they have become more profitable at the present prices. Hence this will terribly impact profit margins as manufacturers cannot afford to rise prices of products as the consumer is already left with little to spend after purchasing essentials ! Apart from rise in prices, the government seems to be all set to rise excise duty this budget as this is not an election year, which will further hamper businesses. With all this in mind the growth and profitability of Indian industries, atleast the small ones seems a little difficult to me over the next year or two…
What are your views on the same sir ? How can the govt control a situation like this ?
Last year the govt wrote off 60000 crores of farmer loans ! Since the farmers had less burden last year how come the food prices have not gone down ?
Krishna
Bangalore, India.
12 Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 15, 2010
You are right that the prices are out of control. However, the food prices have underperformed deeply for over 20 years. The prices rose due to rise in international market prices caused more by hedge fund managers who poured billions in commodities – hard and soft. The government of India can not do much to counter the effect of rise in international prices. Unless it causes total ban on exports. Another controlling factor is to allow the rise in rupee value which is almost 40% undervalued. GOI/RBI policy to keep the rupee down artificially causes inflation to rise because crude oil, palm oil are still being imported in high volume. If Rupee had gained to Rs 31 or so, the effect of rise in international market could have been muted, and allowed better management of country’s finances. However, there is deep mindset about the weaker rupee in the GOI/RBI officials.
The growth in income in Indian has far outpaced the price rise in soft commodities like pulses or milk or other food grains. When I left India in 1984, the milk prices were about Rs 9 per liter which has risen to Rs 27 or about in metro cities – or by 200% in 25 years or 8% per year on average basis. I was making just Rs 2500 per month at that time as officer of the bank. Today, similar officer makes about Rs 25000 minimum or 10 times. That is, income level rose by 900% whereas the food prices rose by 200%.
The deliberate weaker rupee also overinflated earnings of infotech industry which helped them to pay the software engineers as much as Rs 50,000 to Rs 250,000 per month. This industry does not have too much capital or fixed cost. It is in service business where the profit margin could be over 50% to 70% (gross). This has contributed the biggest inflation and wild price rise in property prices in high tech sectors like Hyderabad, Bangalore, Pune and Chennai. They borrow almost Rs 50 lakhs to buy the property due to easy home loans and affordable EMI caused by extreme rise in their income level and stock options.
Unless this trend reverses, Rupee allowed to rise until Rs 26 (based on current dollar overvaluation, I would consider Rupee fairly valued at Rs 18/$). If the rupee rises to at least Rs. 26, the inflation will come down very fast, energy and electricity prices will be reduced by 70%, transportation cost will be down by 50% and there will be real prosperity. Yes, the info tech companies may have lower profit in rupee terms, that may reduce the salaries of their employees, that would bring down the rise in property prices in those centers. The loss of infotech will be the gain for almost 90% in the remaining industries in India.
RUPEE is the key. Government of India and Reserve Bank of India are following disastrous and suicidal policy. A country like USA, almost bankrupt with heaviest debt load, still want stronger dollar, and India with almost negligible debt and growth oriented industries, still want WEAK RUPEE. Our Prime Minister, Finance Minister and RBI Governor are acting like a “suicide bombers” to destroy the total fabrics of the Indian population. There is still time to save the nation before it is too late.
Krishna V
12 Feb 10 at 2:33 AM
Sir,
w.r.t Ashtavinayak stock , wanted to clarify that i had entered the stock at around 60 & exited at 89 – after the 1:10 split & before 1:4 bonus. So essentially current price is 20*4~=80 in terms of pre-bonus value. This to me sounds more like a news driven stock which shot up & is currently in lower circuit when sensex has bounced back.
Why do you think that this is a good growth story?
regards
Raghav
Mumbai,India
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 15, 2010
You are right. It was news driven by the split and subsequent bonus. However, I never go by such news which are considered stock neutral. I am governed by the explosive growth of Indian film industry and also substantial increase in turnover and profit on Q to Q basis (It is over 160%). It was also found to be growing into CineVision business that could integrate its distribution and production business in high margin business.
When I first issued the call, a reader pointed out the 1:10 splits, so I immediately withdrew the call. However, later, I found that the the growth strategy was too enticing to let it go. The company also issued 4:1 bonus which will increase its share capital. Thus, original 1 share = 40 shares (1:10 and than again 4:1 bonus). I came to know about Bonus issue much later.
Strictly speaking, the share may be fairly valued based on EPS of Rs 1 on expanded equity after full dilution due to split and bonus. On that measure, the stock may appear bargain only below Rs 14. Even I bought the shares at about Rs 22.45 but intend to buy more in correction. If the company continues to grow at 100% clip (because the base is low) or 2010, its EPS could rise to between Rs 1.60 to Rs 2.0 per share. Such growth stocks usually trade at higher PE multiple, so recent high into 30s may be attained in 9 to 12 months.
For new entrants, the correct entry price will be <14 in normal market and may be lower in steep correction. Yes, I erred due to incomplete information on the internet about the shareholding structure, split and bonus issue. But the main story – growth – remain encouraging and intact.
It appears that the company management decided on Split and bonus in quick succession to make huge gains for the controlling shareholders in months to come. Yes, they have manipulated the stock prices due to such split and bonus in quick succession – how did the SEBI allow such practice, I do not know. I have not come across any company which has split and also issued the bonues shares in several multiples within a space of just 2 months. The regulators are responsible for not monitoring the price sensitive issues effectively.
Raghav
12 Feb 10 at 1:22 AM
Dear Sir,
I have following stocks, purchased primarily during your recommendation period, except Rel comm. However I could not sell those before 21st Jan, because I was traveling.
Does it make sense to hold those for now and sell during probable pre-budget rally.
Or do you feel, just to sell some and buy Dish Tv, Spicejet, Uco bank for neutralizing the loss.
StockName, PurchaseDate, Qnt@cost, CMP, Loss/Gain
AbishekInd, Oct09, 1000@15.46, 15.20, -2%
AvonCorp, Jun09, 2400@8.87, 9.71, +9.5%
CairnIndia, Dec06, 55@160, 263, +60%
Satyam, Oct09, 200@113 98 -13%
Rel comm, Aug07-Oct09, 140@380, 170, -55%
RNRL, Aug10-Oct10, 1100@82, 65, -20%
Rel power, Aug09, 250@173, 141, -19%
TataTele Sep09, 1400@33, 24, -28%
Thanks,
-Santosh, Bangalore, India.
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 11, 2010
Regret unable to provide comprehensive portfolio solution here. Limit your question only to one or two stocks. Use my old article “Rebalancing of Portfolio… and excel spread sheet”
Santosh
11 Feb 10 at 9:24 PM
Hi Kalidas,
I am a new reader of this blog and it is indeed very helpful.
I bought 400 Ruchi Infra @ 49.70 today. However, I could not find a target for it in Short Term and Long Term. I can go for both ST and LT.
If you could provide it then it would be helpful.
Thanks & Regards,
Ravi C, Hyderabad, India – 02.00 IST
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 11, 2010
If you feel that you do not have full information, do not act over it. I write target and others in Chopai. Do not act on “one Liner” which is extension of Chopai at times. Read Chopai first and then act. I will cover the stock later.
Ravi C
11 Feb 10 at 4:37 AM
Capital Gains & Loss
Dear Kalidas
Following are few general questions, but your answer will help new investors who believe in long term investment
1. How booking of capital gains/loss on shares can be used to the advantage of long term investor?
2. Can Long term gains/loss carried forward to next financial year? If Yes then for how many years?
3. Can Short term losses be offset against Short term Losses? If yes to what extent this can be done ? Is this possible for long term losses too?
Regards
SUCHITRA NAIK
Mumbai
India
10.02.2009
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 11, 2010
No need to speculate now. Let us see the new fiscal policy in budge. Further, there are several portals for Taxation in India. My knowledge of Indian Taxes is not complete.
SUCHITRA NAIK
11 Feb 10 at 12:55 AM
Dear Sir,
This query is regarding Ashtavinayaka stock. I entered the stock at around 60 and exited at around 88. Now seeing that you are suggesting this stock i’m thinking whether i should re-enter. What exactly is the value that you see in this stock?. People would watch movies even in recession , true but why not apply the same logic to other stocks in this business?. I’m asking this because the stock has already run up quite a lot, so do you think that at 21Rs most negative news in the stock is out?. Thank you.
regards
Raghav
Mumbai,India
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 11, 2010
You bought the stock before 1:10 split followed by 1:4 bonus shares. Your prices have to be adjusted accordingly.
Raghav
11 Feb 10 at 12:44 AM
IFCI
I am holding IFCI 500 shares at an average price of 55.35
(200 shares bought on 11 Jan @ 57.10, 200 shares bought on 14 Jan @ 54.90 and 100 shares bought on 9 Feb @ 52.40).
As on 10 Feb
Open 51.40, High 51.70, Low 50.15 Close 50.30
Volume 11173213.
Please share your view on IFCI and say whether i should hold or not?
Regards
Koushik
Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 11, 2010
For mid cap stocks, do not try to average down with 5% to 7% fall. I always allow 15% to 20% before buying again. 5% movement up or down in mid cap is normal
for IFCI, I would think of buying again is only <43.60. Invest same amount as you did for first time. that is, you invested originally Rs 500×55.35 = Rs 28000 or about. Now invest 28000 when the stock <43.50 or say 650 shares. Then, when the stock goes up, do not count the average. go entry by entry cost and evaluate singularky. If the stock goes to 50 and does not go higher, then sell 650 shares
Koushik
11 Feb 10 at 12:39 AM
Sir,
I have 1000 DCB at 41 Rs , 3000 NHPC at 36 Rs.
Sir pl advise me what can I do. May I book loss
and change script into SPICE JET and DISHTV.
THANKS
Kshama Murad
Mumbai, INDIA
09-02-10
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 11, 2010
Always write current market price. Otherwise, I ignore the query and reply only last if I have time or interest. Follow our norms always. for any stock related advise, follow To seek advice on any stock, mention (1) stock name, (2) Purchase Date (3) Qty, (4) @Cost and (5) CMP. Symbol not necessary. No reply will be posted if these 5 details are not given.
DCB: Hold for a while. Yes, Dish TV is an option. but it will take time until April.
NHPC:Most of the projects will bear fruit after February 2011 at least. It will have visible earning growth from Aug 2011 onwards. Until such time it will be slow performer. Be prepared to swap into other stocks as under:
SELL NHPC 1500 shares in good market and Swap to: 400 Spicejet + 300 UCO Bank + 300 DishTV
shama Murad
11 Feb 10 at 12:17 AM
Kalidasji,
I have posted a question on Feb 9th. This is the first time i have posted a question. If you get time, can you pls respond to that question.
Thanks,
Aziz Ahmed
Bangalore,
Feb 10, 2010.
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
You are not following norms. You do not append proper signature with name, city and country, Further, your messages are not spell checked nor letters are properly capitalized. I do not entertain such posts. You will not get reply next time, it will be simply deleted. Read the top section (letter) of this section, read it properly, understand it and then post it.
This post is marked for deletion for not adhering to this column’s norms with regard to (1) appending signaure with name,city and country and (2) for carelessly posting the query without spell check or proper capitalization of words.This post will be deleted within 3 days
Aziz Ahmed
10 Feb 10 at 9:36 PM
Kalidas ji,
These lines are amazingly perfect match to US current economical situation. I can not stop myself from laughing again and again after reading these lines.
“..Tere manke paas wo gujar jaat wo marad jaat – hai, aiaiyoyo aiaiyoyo, aiaiyoyo, aiaiyoyo…”
Raj Sharma
New Delhi, India
Raj Sharma
10 Feb 10 at 8:34 PM
Dear Sir ,
Yet again you have shown the world what a genius(Which all of us in your Blog family know ) you are !!
Article about China and US .. May your Kalidas mantra reach all parts of the world and the people / authorities take notice of this visionary !!
Thanks & regards
Sajith
Chennai , India (feb 10th 2010)
Sajith
10 Feb 10 at 6:17 PM
Dear Sir,
Looks like as per your call, China started dumping US assets. Which may have domino effect world over
http://blog.atimes.net/?p=1352
Thanks and Regards
Amit
Melbourne, Australia
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
China’s decision is financial. Arm Sales to Taiwan may have only 5% contribution. Chinese are now more money minded than politically.
Amit
10 Feb 10 at 5:40 PM
Dear Sir,
I am confused about Shree Ashta Vinayak Call.
On 2nd Feb you gave a buy on same which was withdrawn due to material discrepency with regard to shareholding pattern.
On 9th again you recommended this stock. Please share your findings with us.
Thanks and Regards
Amit,
Melbourne, Australia
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Nothing wrong with my call. When I first issued a call, a reader pointed out material discrepancy with regard to shareholding structure. I had set the target based on old shareholding structure.
Now that I am fully seized of the facts, I have reentered this stock. There was nothing wrong with the revenue or profit. But the stock market runs on EPS, not absolute revenue or profit.
Since then the stock went up to 30′s and then retracted to Rs 21.90 (Less 28% almost). My target is reduced due to more number of shares. This stock could be a big winner in 2010. The people are going to watch movie, recession or no recession.
Amit
10 Feb 10 at 5:36 PM
Dear Sir
Sincelast two months I am stuck with RCOM 75 shares @ Rs.225/= and 100 Kingfisher Air lines @ Rs. 65/= They are not moving up. Please advice wether I Should swap with some other share of your choice.
Thanks
A Vohra
Kanpur
India.
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 11, 2010
You are asking for trading advice on short term basis which I do not give except in Chopai. Waiting for 2 months is nothing. Kindly do not ask such day to say questions.
Hold it for a while. RCOM is alright. Swap from Kingfisher to Spicejet for better return.
anjum64
10 Feb 10 at 4:30 PM
Sir
Thank u very much to spent ur valuable time to replying my query . Pl giving guidence us on future
Thanks again
AMIT GUPTA
AJMER, INDIA
10-02-2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
I request all readers not to send compliments, thanks, regards etc once their queries are replied. Such replies expand this column with socialities and courtesies, diverting the attention of the readers from the issues. Once your queries are replied, just forget about me.
AMIT GUPTA
10 Feb 10 at 3:08 PM
Dear Sir ,
Noted and thanks for your valuable advise , sir.
thanks & regards
Saijth
Chennai,India ( 10th Feb 2010)
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Such courtesies are not required. Please avoid it in future.
Sajith
10 Feb 10 at 2:41 PM
Kalidasji
It seems like Chinese Military is preparing your suggested strategy of selling Treasury to punish USA for arms sales to Taipei.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-officers-urge-treasury-sale-retaliation-2010-02-09
Manoj Panda
Houston, Texas, USA, Dated 02-09-2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
check the reply above to other reader.
Manoj Panda
10 Feb 10 at 1:47 PM
That sinking feeling in Spain
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1962142,00.html
Martin
Goa India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
There is a saying that “Naach Na Jaane Aangan Teda” Have you seen the “Padosan movie” with Kishore kumar singing these famous idiomatic lines? Many songs composed by R D Burman apply to stock markets and its behaviour. This song also starts -
That chatur naar” is America. Hear that Song again, it will remind you of present troubles in US , Europe and elsewhere.
When one has nothing to do in his home, he peeps into another or neighbors. When the state of California, having economy twice the size of Spain has failed, why peep into Spain, dear Americans? Mind your own business – that is what Spaniards have to tell them. This is our family matter, we do not want others to come here and tell us what should we do. Hands off”
Martin
10 Feb 10 at 2:31 AM
Dear Sir,
This is Joshy Devassy here from Mumbai India.I am a govt employee who has put in16 years of hard work In Indian Railways a govt entity.I happened to stumble across your blog just around two to three days back and was amazed by the info u provided across the economies around the world.Now the reason why i am writing to you is completely different from what others write and ask for.Having worked for around 15 years with limited promotion and limited salary and unequal opputtunities now at the age of 33 i am thinking of leaving my secure govt job and trade off for a job in the cruise industry which is concentrated mainly in the US of A.But having read yourblogs i am completely scared of taking such a decision.At present i have a salary of around 700 USD.On the cruise ships i have been offered 1500 USD as starting.Counting on todays exchange rate at 46 odd to the rupee it is a well deserved hike but i am wary reading your comments about the state of US economy which would lead to weakening of the USD and strengthing of the rupee.If the Rs appreciates to around below 40 then it may be a losing proposition for me.So pls guide me as to whether i can take such a risk.And secondly what promoted me into thinking of this new job option is that cruise liners all have made record breaking sales in the past two years which we call recession years.And thirdly is the govts inaction on providing a lumpsum benefit for employees who have completed 15 years of service in case they want to retire as proposed by the VI Pay Commission.The VI PC had proposed a lumpsum 80 basic pay for all those who had put in 15 years or more service but the govt outrightly rejected it without even thinking about the financial saving it would have in lieu of salary and pension to be not given .So Sir i would be highly obliged if you within your insight guide me whether i can take this high risk step.
I am happily married with a wife and kid.My wife too is in govt service.
Joshy Joseph
Thane/Maharashtra/India.
09 Feb 2010
23.30
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Do it. Switch the job if you are getting more. It is always advisable to jump jobes between 25 to 39 age. Thereafter one is bogged down to family, children etc. You can take most risk when you are in above bracket. Do not think about exchange rate. I also left secured nationalized bank’s job after 19 years and came on street to feed my family. I sold my wife’s ornaments at that time. I was 39 at that time. Today, you are reading me, not me reading you. that is the difference.
Joshy Devassy
10 Feb 10 at 2:08 AM
Fame India Ltd.
Dear Kalidas ji,
Fame India Lt.d is in business of movie Distribution, Exhibition, Multiplexes and Negative rights.
I have purchased 500 shares @ 46.20 Rs. Recently after announcement that Inox Leisure Ltd acquired 43.7% stack at 44.3 Rs/ Per share. Later on Inox acquired further 7% share through block deal on stock exchanges to hold more than 50% share (of current equity base) in the company.
Fame has total Out standing shares : 34795262 as of Dec 2009
Subsequently Inox had made Open Offer to acquire up to 8,231,759 equity shares representing in aggregate 20% of the fully diluted voting equity share capital of the Fame at a price of Rs. 51/-
But since 3th February stock is hitting upper circuit with daily 6 lack shares being traded (I could not find out % delivery from nse web site)
Every day I find Buy request for around 7-9 lacks of share at circuit price.
There is talk of a counter proposal from Reliance media works at 80 Rs. Per share but that had been rejected by Fame promoters for whatever reason.
Also I heard that SEBI would not stop the open offer either. In that case, what could be benefit a operator or entity who is buying every day at circuit prize as Inox is already having more than 50% of stack.
Though my exposure to this script is very less but not able to decide whether to book 28% of on-paper profit or wait till “circuit days” are played out completely.
Please advice
Apurva,
Mumbai
India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
There is 20% mandatory purchase in terms of SEBI rules. The companies really do not want to buy back because they have no money. However to comply the SEBI proposal, they engage two or three brokers who push up the price by selling and buying among themselves. When the market price is shown at 80, no one is going to tender shares at Rs 51. This is what they want. When the SEBI notice period is over, they will inform – look we tried to buy back 20% but the investors did not turn in. Therefore, they complied with the SEBI rules on paper. Once that date is passed, the stock will come down below Rs 51.
The wisdom is to sell the shares and take the profit. Buy back when it is below Rs 45 again.
Apurva
10 Feb 10 at 1:41 AM
Dear Anil ji,
It is a very pleasant surprise to see the old format back.
This one actually is so much more pleasant,easier on the eyes and and easier to explore and read.It also comes across as a more serious /business site ,which in my opinion is good since it involves money.
Infact Colour brought in through Advertisements give nicer look to your blog and also gives an edge for the Advertiser to not go unnoticed with his splash of colour.
This is just a personal opinion,please ignore it if you think otherwise sir.
Thank you again for all your words of wisdom.
Regards
pp
Mumbai,India
2300hrs 9thFeb.2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Dear PP
I told you number of times never be apologetic or qualify remark like “Please ignore if I you think otherwise”. It is good to be humble. but too much humility will take away your punch. Keep the punch always. you are reading me because I am never apologetic. My writings always have punch lines. You also keep it. I never feel bad if my readers criticize me or have opinion different than mine.
Prithipal S Bajaj
10 Feb 10 at 1:31 AM
Sir,
I had posted this query earlier but did not get a reply. Please provide your suggestions.
I hold ITD Cementation (details mentioned below). What do you think is the future of the sector and the stock in specific. Should I increase my position at CMP or wait for correction?
Purchase date: 18/05/2009Purchase Price: 131.40CMP: 186.15Quantity: 300
Regards,
Sumit Gupta, Kolkata, India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Too expensive by my standard. Too small capital relative to activity and debt level. further, too small profit. EPS look greater due to thin capital base. 70% of operating profit is lost in interest due to high debt load. If the Interest rates rise (though I do not expect in India), such company could pulled down to losses.
Such infrastructure companies are difficult to evaluate. No one does 1000 crores business to earn only. further the stock has quadruped from low in this year. Trading at 37 times PE. this is nearly peak for the company. I would sell, rather than buying this scrip. Yes, all are running after infra structure companies – but they show no profits. Looks like they are all siphoning off the profit to their associates.
Sumit Gupta
9 Feb 10 at 10:59 PM
Dear Anil ji,
I have bought 20 lots (50 each) of NIFTY 4400 PUTs for Feb series @ 22. Market has improved in past 2 days taking it down to 15.4.
Could you please advise me if I should stay PUT or book my losses?
Thanks & Regards,
Rahul
London, UK
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Why do you guys dabble into futures when the present (spot) can make money? I do not advise on Futures and Options usually, but I will tell you only one thing. You buy puts when the index has run up for at least 3 sessions or by 5% at least and also other way down. When the market has risen, you get Puts at best prices. If you want to play futures, do not go to Indian from London. Play on Nikkei, S&P100 in USA. It is more manageable and limit your exposure.
regarding your future course of actions, I would not advise you – this subject is out of this blog’s parameter.
Rahul
9 Feb 10 at 10:03 PM
Dear Anil,
Thank you so much for your valuable time spent in replying to my query.Will go by your advice
R.Mohankumar
9 Feb 10 at 9:50 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
I am pleasantly surprised to see old format back. I am not averse to colours or complain about little bit of loss speed to see the new format. But I feel old format utilizes screen real estate efficiently, it is more readable and one can go thru all the messages very conveniently.
I did some reading on Gold. Gold ETF’s have following structure, “ETF <-Agreement-> Trustee <-Agreement-> Custodian”. If one checks these agreements between the parties involved, it looks like they are full of counter-party risks which would eventually borne by the investor. Think of a hypothetical situation, rumors about Tungsten salted 400Oz bars infiltrated with the GLD custodian HSBC vault in NYC. If this happens in reality, after all the litigation, investor is the looser. Same is the case with derivatives bought by the fund and profit/losses incurred would be passed to NAV of the fund. Agreements are so one sided that if custodian fails to check purity of the gold (while stocking), and later finds it of lesser purity, then, NAV (investor) suffers. They have raised their hands beforehand itself, they do not find obligated to carry out their fiduciary responsibility in letter and spirit. These kind of risks are cleverly concealed in the agreements.
In India, checked GoldBEES, which has Bank of Nova Scotia, Toronto, Canada as custodian, which is outside India. Quantum half has their custodian in Mumbai, and hence can deliver gold in physical form if the holding is more than 1 Kg.
So, both cases, holding Gold in paper form is FULL of COUNTERPARTY RISKS.
Now, holding Gold in physical form would attract wealth tax if holding is above 15 Lk. Say small piece of land, and some Gold would easily cross this limit. You are in HK, so you may not have thought about wealth tax.
Is there any way one can save on taxes? Do you think that Quantum would be relatively next best option than holding Gold in physical form?
Dongre, Mumbai, India, 09/02/2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
This is why I have been advocating holding physical gold. I fully endorse your views otherwise. I recommended Quantum Gold fund by default rather than design, because I usually do not go to business houses owned funds who normally work for those listed companies.
I did not consider Wealth Tax effect. My knowledge of Indian taxation is old, not updated. Often I ask some Chartered Accountants, but they too often give double opinions. Gold is a money, and should not have been subject to Wealth Tax. But if it is, Go for exchange traded securities like Quantum.
This is why I hate the governments, especially Government of India. By designing taxation policy in ill thought manner, they are driving its citizens to insecure investment products. Although India imports 800 tons of gold annually, and Gold being part of every Indian family, GOI has not come out with the RBI Bullions or Coins (with Gandhi on it) and make it as easy to buy and sell by making two way markets as done in USA, Canada, Switzerland etc.
Indian being largest trading place in the world for gold does not have official market under RBI or GOI umbrella? It is a shame. They should make gold completely free of tax of any kind. It is real money afterall. When the Government ran into severest form of FOREX crisis in1992, only Gold came to its rescue by allowing to pledge to British government for Forex Aids. It is Gold that saved India anyway.
Dongre
9 Feb 10 at 9:45 PM
ANNOUNCEMENT
Many complained that while the new theme was very appealing in looks and functions, there was lot of loading time. As such, until those problems are fixed, I have restored the old theme with which you are familiar with.
I hope to revise the theme at later stage.
Anil Selarka
9 Feb 10 at 8:47 PM
Sir,
Just look at this blog. Your thoughts, Ideas are copied and sold. This men makes some exclusive reports and sell them. One of them was regarding MTNL where he mentioned that Book value of Rs. 10000 cr and script’s market value is just 4000 cr, Debt free company blah blah blah… But I read about MTNL at your blog first and then he made his exclusive reports about MTNL.
http://www.blog.happionaire.com/
Sir, You make Ideas and people sell them and earn money.
What a copycat Indian we are.
I read your reply to someone that India is Next U.S. in next 8-10 years. BTW Americans will do at least Farming as they have bigger land But what we copycat Indians will do if 25% of our population who pay taxes will go Unemployed within 1-2 years likewise Americans ?
Bhavesh, Navi Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
I will look into that. I also have a program by which I can find out who copied and reproduced my articles in part or full anywhere in the world.
Bhavesh
9 Feb 10 at 7:15 PM
Kalidasji:
I second Sam on the slowness and the amount of time it takes to open as it has to download more data then before, maybe because of the colour filled backgrounds RED, YELLOW, GREEN;
I can see the data being downloaded is more around 900kb or above earlier it used to be 300-500kb..
Obviously more colours, more attraction but more time to display..
Sir, its just a feedback to make this place a much better site for all;
Please wait for others feedback sir
Regards,
Sreeram, London, UK
09th Feb 2010 1100hrs
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
I know lot about computers, but not in extreme details. In Hong Kong, we do not see much difference. It is also possible that our own server could be slow (I am yet to verify) due to more than 180% rise in traffic of late. If it is a question of bandwidth, we will address it. As you can see, there are always over 40 persons on line reading this blog
Sreeram, UK
9 Feb 10 at 7:09 PM
Dear Sir (Guru Ji)
Regarding, Resurgere Mines and Minerals India (CMP: Rs 97.15)
It seems Net profit and Networth has been doubling every year except for year 2009, but unfortunately Earning per share has been decreasing.
Are they running Ponzi Scheme?
It looks like they have fabricated their book to float IPO in August 2008.
At least its P/E and P/B looks attractive.
Their debt level is good. Also in growth sector.
Is it a value buy?
http://www.moneycontrol.com/financials/resurgereminesmineralsindia/profit-loss/RMM01
http://www.resurgere.in/index.html
http://www.resurgere.in/otherdownloads.html
Regards
Dabbu
Baroda, India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Resurgere Mines and Minerals India (CMP: Rs 97.15)
The company is small. It has less cushion for the losses. It received the notice to discontinue some mining operations in Orissa from the lease holder whose license has been withdrawn by the Government. It has paid large amount as security deposit and Advanced Royalty deposit. If such deposit/advance does not come back, the company may report losses.
Further, we are not bullish on Metals and mining sector for next 9 months or so. The stock has advanced of late but you may lighten up and see the next quarter before continuing. Otherwise, swap to other stocks Petronet, Dish TV, Spice Jet, Ashta Vinayak which may make more money
Dabbu
9 Feb 10 at 7:05 PM
Thank you Anil Sir for your advice on both my queries;
Sorry for using abbreviations SIP (Systematic Investment Process) – I meant to invest on every drop of 3-4% in market stocks in india and USA;
But now after your advice i will try to look out for the US Property instead of US-A Stocks;
Best Regards.
Anil sinha, Detroit, USA, 09/2/2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
tks
Anil Sinha
9 Feb 10 at 6:38 PM
Dear Mr. Kalidas,
I have 15 lakhs in Cash and want to invest accordingly. I dont have any loans. I dont own an apartment either. I’m staying on leased apartment with a lease amount of 10 lakhs with no rent to pay.
My questions:
1)Should i buy an apartment now in bangalore? Are real estate prices expected to correct any more in bangalore?
2)Should i wait and invest in equity market for better returns ?
3) Should i start buying physical gold as investment in long term?
Ideally i would wish to do the three, but i think it will be of too much commitment and very less of cash left for me. Pls need your advice.
Aziz Ahmed,
Bangalore, Feb 09,2010.
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Replied already in your reminder. Further, better mention Country beside Bangalore – otherwise I will delete your mails.
Aziz Ahmed
9 Feb 10 at 6:34 PM
Dear Sir,
I just wanted to point out another good stock: India Cements
Closed at 116.75
Book Value: 105
PE: 8
Incase you follow this stock, pls let me know your opinion ?
Thanks
Mehr
Delhi, 09, Feb, 2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Yes, it is. Already replied to other – just scroll down a bit
Mehr
9 Feb 10 at 6:28 PM
Dear sir ,
Iam interested in buying 1 lot of India cements at the CMP which is 117 . Sir would you recommend my on this .
Thanks & regards
Sajith ,
Chennai ( India, Feb 9th 2010)
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
India Cement: Yes, I will. It is a good company with low profile with consistent earnings. Buy <120 for long term. Undervalued compared to other cement stock. This stock does not have sex appeal because it is focused only in South
Sajith
9 Feb 10 at 6:07 PM
Sir,
I have 1000 UCO BANK at 60 Rs , 1000 EXCEL INFO at 55 Rs. Sir pl advise me what can I do. May I book loss and change script into SPICE JET which CMP is 56 Rs
THANKS
AMIT GUPTA
AJMER, INDIA
09-02-10
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Hold UCO
Excel Infoways: does not have much following. The stock is on continuous decline. Yes, it is profitable. Quarterly results not bad, but EPS could be Rs 6 or about by year end, placing stock at 8 times P/E. Still a very small company. I am not so good at high/soft tech stocks. However based on financials and judging the trend, it is fairly priced. Why the stock dropped from all the way 139, I am unable to understand. You may hold for a while till 4Q is out. Alternatively, swap to Shree Ashta Vinayak (Rs 22.5 or about) for quicker gain. Still the present stocks is still good to hold
AMIT GUPTA
9 Feb 10 at 5:04 PM
Dear Sir
I would like to get your opinion on India Glycols. This company incurred losses in Forex last year but otherwise it is good company. It is one of the leading manufactures of Glycols, Ethoxlates & PEGs. The stock was trading at 500/- at its peak but has not recovered well after the 2008 crash. It currently touched 132/- and is now trading at 110/-. I had initially picked it between 110/- and 116/- but soldout at 125+ after your call.
Regards,
Harish Vyas
San Diego, USA
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
I am not able to lay my hands on the above company’s financials. Moneycontrol web site is jumping from one page to another in rapid succession. May be something wrong on the web page. I will reply later.
Harish Vyas
9 Feb 10 at 11:58 AM
Sorry for not appending and my apologies . Would you be kind enough to comment on cement sector in specific India cement .
Sajith,
chennai(India)
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 09, 2010
Look, there are thousands of stocks. Please refer to me the stock you have invested in. I can not reply anyone for readers who are asking me for inquisitive purpose. If you have specific purpose, then let me know – I will answer.
Please note that I am a one man show. If I go on answering for every stock, then there will be no end to it.
Sajith
9 Feb 10 at 11:36 AM
GLODYNE TECHNOSERVE
Dear Anil,
I have a holding of 4000 shares in this company which I have bought at an average price of 390.The CMP is 502.Can you kindly advise whether it is a hold.for the long term . Willing to hold for 3years and above.
R Mohankumar,Trivandrum,India
9 Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 09, 2010
This is a high tech/tech savvy stocks in which I am NOT good at. On the face of it, you entered at good price. It also looks good company, but interest costs are relatively high, and large portion of promoters holding are earmarked or pledged. If the market collapses for any reason, then this promoters may get margin call and be forced to sell.
No harm in holding on long term. However, use 30% of this stock to trade – sell in rally and buy back in correction 10% to 20% from peak. Stop buying back if the stock goes above Rs 800 when it will be fully priced. Alternatively, sell 50% when the stock is at about rs 600. Your entire investment recovered, the balance is your floating profit – you never lose.
May be you know the company better than me judging by your level of investment.
R.Mohankumar
9 Feb 10 at 5:22 AM
Dear Sir,
A suggestion for the new format of the site. I am not sure if I am the only one experiencing it, but site seems to have slowed down and pages take their own sweet time to populate. You might want to look into that aspect if other users are also facing the same issue.
Thanks,
Sam, New Delhi, India
9-Feb-10 1:33 am
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 09, 2010
You are the first to inform me about slow response. The theme is also non graphic. I have tested on Mac, Firefox, Mac Safari, Google Chrome – but the speed is fine – as good as old one. However, I will keep track of it. I will conduct poll and ask the readers of the feedback. If most people experience slowness, I will revert to to the original style.
It is possible that we in Hong Kong have fast servers or broadband connection and as such we may not have noticed the slow speed. I do not know about India especially. Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, and other metro centers fine.
Anyway, thanks for your feedback. I will keep track and take proper actions.
Sam
9 Feb 10 at 4:03 AM
SUPREME PETROCHEM
Dear Kalidas
Please can you advise if the shares of this company ( Turnover > Rs. 1000 Crs) are good for long term (6 months-1 year)
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/features/investors-guide/Long-term-investors-should-invest-in-Supreme-Petrochem/articleshow/5385913.cms
http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=500405
Qty : 500
Cost : Rs 30
CMP : 37
Regards
SUCHITRA NAIK
Mumbai
India
08.02.2010
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 09, 2010
It appears to be well organized company but in declining industry. The company is following unique “share buy back” policy, not so much heard of from leading companies in India. The stock is cheap in spite of recent rise by 40%. The company’s revenue is fairly constant, but 50% dominant in their main product line, any reversal of fortune for the industy will benefit this company most. The company’s product is tied to the future of oil price. I am taking the view that the oil prices are on medium term decline which is beneficial to the company.
However, considering the present market situation, take a profit at around 41. If your aim is long term, nothing to worry about. If my prediction on oil prices cometrue, the company will be the immediate beneficiary. If you want to buy more. try at the level or 23/26 and good sale will be 46/51. In bull market add 30% to these targets. Your cost is reasonable.
SUCHITRA NAIK
8 Feb 10 at 11:45 PM
Dear Anil,
For the last one year I am based at Singapore. However, next month I may be back to pavilion India.
Only yesterday I cam across your website. I can say with conviction that your article and replies to individual queries are with really deep thoughts. I admire your efforts.
Please keep it up.
I have a query. My portfolio consists of 80% small and mid-caps and 20% large caps. Against this I am short on Nifty futures to the extent of 85% of the value of my portfolio. In fact I had lost very heavily but in view of recent decline in the market my 75% losses on Nifty futures have been recovered. I know it has no scientific basis. Somehow it happened.
How do you advise me.
What is the best solution now.
I eagerly await your reply.
RAJESH AGRAWAL
SINGAPORE
8th February 2010
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 09, 2010
You have right strategy. However, go on booking profits on your puts side.
RAJESH AGRAWAL
8 Feb 10 at 11:22 PM
Dear Anil Sir:
I am working and living in USA since last 8years and i am planning to move to india for good.
I have my saving around 250K US$ in BoA i am planning to move around 150K to India to invest in properties and Indian Equity market. but i would like to leave 100K to invest in the stocks which you mentioned ADR’s SATYAM, MTNL, FNM, FRE etc. but again will invest in SIP over 12months period
I want to move my 150K US$ at the best price, as i will be investing in Indian Equity market in SIP manner over 12months period.
1. i want your advice what is the best time to move my saving to India to take advantage of the raising american dollar Exchange rate.
2. Is it right in keeping my my money idle till i invest in US$? Is it the right step?
Can you guide me on these above queries ?
Thanks Anil Sir
Anil Sinha, Detroit 08/02/10
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 09, 2010
The answer is yes, Keep the money in USD for the time being. If manipulations in currency markets goes on, the rupee will fall to the delight of stupid Indian ministers. Send in monthly installments of 10,000 each. It will even out the exchage rates.
However, my view is that you can make more money by staying in America by buying property now. You can get extreme bargain and also lock in interest rates for 25 years at very low rate. I take the view that if the rates rises in USA, then the buyers will rush to property market to lock in low interest rates for long time. If you approach banks in possession of foreclosed property, they will give you 30% to 40% off from quoted price. that too, after fall of 30%. In short, you will get property at 60% to 70% discount to peak prices. You can not go wrong in such cases.
UNLESS you really want to move out to India. What is SIP by the way? Do not use abbreviations. Use full name first and then use abbreviations, so that we know the meaning.
Anil Sinha
8 Feb 10 at 11:15 PM
A Feedback on new format:
Dear Kalidasji,
I have put below some minor lapses of otherwise an Excellent new format:
1. Please see to that comment number is displayed for each (like in earlier format).
2. Please put an option “See All Comments”.
Please note that I haven’t put the ‘+’points for obvious reasons.
With Thanks,
BV, Mumbai, India.
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
It is not possible. I am as administrator get all comments on one page. However, the readers do not get to see all comments. there is no such facility in program (so called “Plug In”) When such options are available, we will include it. In the meantime, I publish at the end of month all comments from my Admininistration page. The only difference is that it is not real time.
BV
8 Feb 10 at 10:29 PM
Thank you so much for clearing the air.
Regards,
Ravi,Chennai,India.
Capt S.Ravichandran
8 Feb 10 at 10:10 PM
Dear Kalidas Ji,
Do you expect indian market to crash like 2008 in view of worsening global scenario or India will be able to escape global rout. Also, do you suggest to invest some portion of cash(say 25%) into indian equities from 1-3 month view. I am sitting on 100% cash currently.
Neeraj
UP, India
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
I do not know why readers are asking such question time and again when it has been replied in this column number of times. Yes, there will be route and India can not escape, only damage may be less for the simple reason that India does not suffer from massive unemployment, whereas rest of the world does. In other words, the Indian investors have money, others don’t. However, those from overseas like FII, Pension Funds see the massive crash, they will move the money to the most affected markets because of heavy bargains. At that time, while world markets may recover, India will go down or may not go up much. Simple reason – money flow.
You may remain invested upto 10% of your money, at the most 15% if you are buying growth oriented stocks which are suggested in this blog time and again. Do not come back to me again for similar question here.
neeraj
8 Feb 10 at 7:28 PM
Dear Sir,
Request your guidance on the matter.
Thanks & Regards,
Balaji.
Kalidas Reply (2/8/2010): Replied
Balaji
8 Feb 10 at 4:39 PM
Sirji,
In relevance to Raghav’s question… What is a good level to enter in GAIL and what are your targets?
GAIL INDIA: BSE: 532155 : NSE: GAIL
Harsh Patel, Ahmedabad, India.
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
It is fully priced now. Try at 360 but good bargain will be at 287 or below. This stock falls very fast when the chips are down. When 2008 crash occurred, the stock was down 20% with no buyers. Wait for those opportunities. Until such time, I would buy only Petronet, Petrnet and Petronet
harsh patel
8 Feb 10 at 3:59 AM
Dear Sir,
I have sent a personal query to you. Kindly give your suggestion at your convenience to enable me taking a better decision.
Thanks,
-Santosh, Bangalore, India.
Santosh
8 Feb 10 at 12:40 AM
Dear Anil,
I hold 44000 shares of Nakoda textiles…picked up11000@61.5.there was a split followed by a bonus leading to quadruplication.The share is presently quoting at 13+. Could you give your valuable advice.am willing to hold it for six months,if need be.
BTW,ur article on currency war has been copied onto the mmb board.pse crosscheck.
Regards,
Ravi, Chennai, India
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
I am not following this stock, I do not like companies that have sales of Rs 800 crores and report profit of just 1%. At the same time, the company management is engaging into share manipulation by dividing shares into 10 from 1. It is just to boost the share price. The PE may sound low, but what is the basis? I went through their website but no reliable information could be had. It looks like that most of the profits go into the pocket of the directors. if the company is really making, why not give good dividend in cash? Any one can split a shre into 5,10 or more and give away paper to the investors asking them to go to stock exchange and make gain. I do not believe their accounts.
Capt S.Ravichandran
7 Feb 10 at 11:31 PM
Kalidoss ji
I am an avid reader of your block. I wish to know your views on pharma stocks. What is your prediction for this industry as a whole. If so which stock is the best and what is the right price to enter. Every analyst recommend Pharma and infra sector, I do have a fear that I should not ignore this sector as a whole like Textile and aviation. I ignore both, as they rarely perform
YAGNESWAR
CHENNAI, INDIA
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
I do not follow pharma stocks for the simple reasons that they are too technical. As ordinary person, we can not understand the individual drugs and its potential. However, of late, Pfizer’s patent expiry of Lipitor may help company like Ranbaxy. It is a good sector, better than even high tech, but beyond my evaluation. Focus on big companies like Ranbaxy, Cipla, Glaxo, Pfizer, Sun Pharma etc. If you do not know much about them, wait for steep market correction and pick up some well known names. this is easy process.
yagneswar, chennai india
7 Feb 10 at 11:07 PM
Dear Sir,
I don’t mean to disturb you again as I know it was a weekend. I just wanted to request your guidance so I can instruct the following to my banker. As I had mentioned to you below I sold the motorola shares – 5,800 @6.40/share.
Now I wanted to instruct him once markets open tommorrow evening to do the following as you had advised, just wanted to double check the amounts with you:
Motorola LEAP Stk12.5 Jan12 buy 58 C
Fannie Mae buy 2900
FNM LEAP Calls Stk2.5 Jan12 buy 58C
Freddie Mae buy 2,900
Satyam Computer- ADR buy 1740
Satyam Calls Jul10 Stk7.5 buy 29C
MTNL- ADR buy 2900
TATA Motors – ADR buy 424
Dr. Reddy ADR buy 174
I await your confirmation. Thank You very much.
Nisha,
Hong Kong
07/02/2010
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
You must know that I am not your stock broker. I have already given you reply, and also talked to you over the phone. So please be guided accordingly. It is not possible to spoon feed every reader.
Nisha
7 Feb 10 at 10:22 PM
Sir,
I guess i didnt put my question clearly.
the point that i was trying to ask was basically – “do you think that the situation is going to get worse after Feb 9th also?”. I made this point because you had earlier replied to a query that one can consider entering the market only after Feb 9 – that too if positive signs appear around the world.
regards
Raghav,
Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
The situation is still very fluid. See any business channel – CNBC. Bloomberg etc. The anchors and interviewee are both awkward. No one knows what other party is talking about. We entered first correction in 2008 but it was swiftly forgotten due to trillions of dollars pumped into the system. It did not work. Now, no one has guts to stimulate again in same fashion. We are yet to enter second major phase of correction – we are only at the door, not even entered it.
When it is right time to enter, I will write full article. Until such time be satisfied with few special situations here and there.
Raghav
7 Feb 10 at 9:39 PM
Your comment was deleted for not appending your full signature with City and Country name. Sorry
sajith , Chennai
7 Feb 10 at 9:13 PM
Thanks a lot for your kind reply
regards
Vivek
New Delhi, India
vivek chopra
7 Feb 10 at 7:51 PM
Hello Sir,
I have been following your articles from quite some time. Recently I read your article “World Currency War – just started“. It was really amazing. Thanks a ton for that..
I have some doubts regarding the article. In the article you have mentioned that we have to purchase physical gold now. At the end of the article its mentioned that India will benefit from this crisis. So I wanted to know as a investor in India should I buy physical gold or should wait for a correction in stock market and invest in equities.
Thanks in advance..
Best Regards,
Chandramohan.K.N, Bangalore, India
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
It depends on you whether you want gold as desirable asset or equity. if interested in equity, wait for some time.
chandramohan
7 Feb 10 at 6:37 PM
Kalidasji,
I have missed out the story on Ispat and Spicejet. Please tell me whenever you have time.
Regards,
Hem
Mumbai, India
Hem
7 Feb 10 at 6:26 PM
Hello Anil ji,
I have purchased 700 Gitanjalali @ 120Rs over past few months. I somehow strongly believe that it is going to be next TITAN. What will be your short term advice? Stock is in 110+ range due to turmoil in global markets.
Regards,
Rahul
London, UK
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
I do not follow this stock.
Rahul
7 Feb 10 at 6:22 PM
Namaste Sir,
Again need your help on essar oil, there is a news announced by Shell that talks with essar oil are positive. Will the down ward trend of oil prices affect this price much from current level or the price will be triggered to positive (may be 160) based on shell news? My accumulation strategy is around 130-135 every time it falls. On Friday I accumulated essar oil QTY 1412 @134.25 and CMP 142; I would like to book profit based on advise or to keep till month end.
Thanking you,
Krishna,
Hyderabad
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
Not much. Essar has largest refinery and it will be augmented by RDS refineries in Europe. Lower prices are positive for refiners as it tends to increase their margin.
Krishna
7 Feb 10 at 6:10 PM
Professor Niall Ferguson On NDTV
http://www.ndtv.com/news/videos/video_player.php?id=1199660
I hope it is ok if I share some links which I find to be interesting
Martin
Goa India
Martin
7 Feb 10 at 5:22 PM
P.S.
I am NOT the same Raghav who just didn’t follow this forum’s rules.
I have written the name and all other details needed so please do not ignore my question.
Thanks, Raghav. K, Mumbai, India
Raghav. K
7 Feb 10 at 4:44 PM
Sir,
I know that this comparison is not the correct way but do you think that the way NTPC gained good returns in 2000-2010 GAIL can earn it for 2010-2020? If you feel that it can please suggest entry price for GAIL and sell price for NTPC.
I generally keep my stocks for 5 to 10 years irrespective of price and I do have petronet which I bought 2000@40.
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
I would sell NTPC and prefer GAIL or Petronet
NTPC BSE: 532555 | NSE: NTPC | ISIN: INE733E01010: 500@100 CMP 208
GAIL BSE: 532155 | NSE: GAIL | ISIN: INE129A01019 up on your Reco.
Raghav. K, Mumbai, India
Raghav. K
7 Feb 10 at 4:40 PM
Sir,
In addition to my query on Gujarat NRE & Rain Commodities, i observed your reply to Vivek & had this doubt.
You are suggesting to sell after Feb 9th also to Vivek !. So does it mean that whatever positive turnaround event you had in mind when you gave the Feb 9 date hasnt happened and the markets would continue downward journey (i.e, despite some intermediate resistance & possible upmoves).
In that case, do you suggest that i put in any part of my earlier liquidated stocks or just stay with cash on the sidelines? Pls suggest.
regards
Raghav,
Mumdai,India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
Argumentative. My write ups are very clear and not subject to dual interpretation.
Raghav
7 Feb 10 at 4:07 PM
Dear Sir (Kalidas Ji),
When analysts talks about ‘Top Line’ and ‘Bottom Line’ in relation to Profit, Growth etc.; what do they mean? How are these words ‘Top Line’ and ‘Bottom Line’ used in financial terms?
Regards
Dabbu
Baroda, India (07-02-2010)
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
Please google the search, you will get reply. Top Line = Sales Revenue; Bottom Line = Net Profit
Dabbu
7 Feb 10 at 4:01 PM
Dear Sir,
Do you have any views on the following stocks : Gujarat NRE Coke & Rain Commodities.
regards
Raghav
Mumbai,India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
You are not reading my views. I have mentioned that oil prices are on decline which will bring down the coal prices as well. As such
Gujarat NRE Coke -Sell ; Rain Commodties – No view. Not following this stock
Raghav
7 Feb 10 at 3:57 PM
Dear Anil,
Warm Regards
I just need some advice on whether to redeem my mutual funds at this time and re enter again at 4000 Nifty or you think Markets may not go that down?
Please advice, my portfolio is about Rs. 30lk
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably. Otherwise you do not qualify for my reply.
As a special case, you may start selling upto 50% from Wednesday onwards because US stocks may perhaps recover on Monday which will have positive effect on Indian stocks trading on Tuesday. It may give you 2% or 3% more value.
vivek chopra
7 Feb 10 at 1:14 PM
Sir,
MTNL posted a loss of nearly 9 billion in its Q3 2009 results. However you have still recommended it as a good buy at CMP of Rs 72. I feel you should have a very good reason to disregard the losses.
Currently I am 0% on equity. I am thinking of investing up to 5 lakhs (10% of my investible budget) into this company and hence asking your opinion before buying.
Thanks
Bobby, Singapore, 7-Feb-010 8:20 AM SGT
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
Always provide a link to your statement while seeking my comments. I do not have time to search the information you already have.
The company’s revenue was down Rs 63 crores and other income by Rs 44 crores on Q2PQ (Quarter to previous quarter). However, tax liabilities were reduced by just Rs 63 crores, that is, the taxable losses must have been Rs 200 crores. How could it lose Rs 895 crores. There may be special accounting entry. The government departments are lousy by not disclosing full details while making earning release.
No change in opinion on MTNL therefore. It is a Zero debt company. In fact, you may see upswing in use of Fixed line in future. I hardly use mobile phone – you have to speak at the highest pitch plugging one finger in other ear and then moving to window or elsewhere to get better signals. The days of low pricing mobility phones will be over in maximum 2 years. Even one war will knock off the digital signals for months, making all mobile phones useless instruments. All mobile phone companies have to depend on fixed line networks for licensing and other transmission purpose. They are like leaves, whereas base companies are like a trunk of tree.
Bobby
7 Feb 10 at 8:22 AM
Dear Sir,
Do you see a further fall in Euro with respect to Indian Rupee. 1 Euro was around Rs. 70 in Nov 2009 and it fell as low by 10% to Rs. 63 in Feb 2010 in just 2 – 3 months.
Pl advice if we can see Euro appreciating against INR in sometime.
Thanks in advance.
Gr,
Namazhwar, Rotterdam, Netherlands
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
May be you can wait for Euro to rebound. But the West is playing out troubles in euro zone beyond proportion. They want to divert their attention to other nations. At the moment, the euro is weak, but rupee is weak against dollar, so it is stronger against euro.
Start converting into rupee in stages. Rupee rate is still very attractive. My 80% savings are in rupee, gold, silver, Indian stocks Indian property by now.
Namazhwar
7 Feb 10 at 4:45 AM
Hello Sir,
I recently came across a documentary titled “COLLAPSE” http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1503769/ starring Michael Ruppert. He more or less interprets things similiar to you. May be you should have a look and post your comments.
Kind Regards
Manohar V S
Bangalore
India
07-02-2010
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
I may have to see that documentary.
Manohar V S
7 Feb 10 at 3:26 AM
Sir Jii
i have GMR Infra
date of purchase- 28.12.2007
Qty-350
Average cost-124
CMP-55
Any idea Sir Ji, What is the future prospect of GMR Infra?
Kuldeep
Punjab, India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
I am not following this stock.
Kuldeep
7 Feb 10 at 2:02 AM
Sir,
Sorry because I had posted my query at wrong place.
So, I am putting here once again. You may delete it from ‘stock observatory’. :-
I had asked you about buying real estate in mumbai in Nov’09 – and you had suggested me to wait for 3 months.
I have a question. Please answer me in two words : (yes/no) &(<month>)
Is this right time to buy real estate (an apartment) for self use?
If not, till what time I should wait?
-Gaurav
Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
Wait for another 3 months. May be you can see the situation in April itself.
Gaurav
6 Feb 10 at 11:07 PM
Hello Sir,
Thanks for bringing Financial wisdom to the readers of this blog site. I seek your wisdom towards a query of mine. US is in complete financial mess due to over printing and national debt.
India, likewise, is a running a huge national debt equivalent to more than 85% of our GDP. Besides this, we are a export dependent country (west dependent). Looking at the current world affairs why do you still feel in case of complete breakdown India would be better of than other countries? Can you please enlighten me on that?
Thanks,
Sam, New Delhi, India
6-Feb-10 8:00 pm
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
You have wrong notions. Before you form any opinion, just check basic facts, not too much details.
1. Who told you India is export dependent country. It is not. India has over 1 billion people to take care of. All the production in India can be consumed within India itself.
2. Do not count only Debts vs GDP. The % always look higher, when the base is low. The US is having over inflated GDP, so its debt vs GDP looks smaller. Consider absolute – US has $14 trillion debt whereas India has far less.
Further, look at debt vs back up assets. Government of India owns more than 160 large companies in addition to stake in nationalized banks. For instance, its stake in State Bank of India could be worth hundreds of thousands of crores. So also, its stake in State owned Enterprises oil marketing companies, Steel Authority, NTPC , PTC
In overseas countries, almost all companies are in private hand. In India, major assets are in government hands. In fact, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA IS RICHEST GOVERNMENT IN THE WORLD. Its assets are very much undervalued. If the assets of all PSU are revalued, India could be second largest economy in the world. All those PSU have billions of square feet of land bought or valued at Rs 5 paise in 1950. Why talk of other PSU. The Indian Railway alone has billions of square feet of land that is still 100% PSU. If they privatize, how much money GOI can make?
Consider your own case. If you have housing loan of Rs 20 lakhs, you also have Home assets worth Rs 30 lakhs. In worst scenario, you sell home to repay debt.
But supposing you have credit card debts against which you have no assets.. Then your financial position is weaker even for Rs 100,000 compared to Rs 20 lakh liability that is backed up by Rs 30 lakhs assets.
sam
6 Feb 10 at 10:38 PM
Dear sir,
I have some cash in Euros & US$ that I have kept in fixed deposits in Hong Kong. After reading your article, I am thinking of taking advantage of the correction in Gold & Silver prices and using the cash to purchase some bullion. Kindly advise what percentage would you advise to allocate to Gold & Silver and where would be the best place in Hong Kong to purchase the actual bullion?
Thank You very much for your guidance,
Nisha
Hong Kong
6th Feb, 2010
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
Yes, you may buy some gold and silver at current prices. further, so long as USD/HKD peg is retained, any rise in gold/silver prices will be fully reflected in local dollar terms. Since Euro is down, you may use USD to buy. Use Euro when it is stronger relative to Hk dollar
Nisha
6 Feb 10 at 9:11 PM
Hello Anil Sir,
I am die-hard fan of yours and tracking your comments since 3 years. I was 100% cash till Jan 10 as per your call. Recently I purchased
1. Gold ETF, 200 units – av. Rs 1617 per unit
2. RCOM – 4 lots in delivery av. 176
But I have only 60% cash left. How much cash right now I should keep as more fall still to come?
Are markets will test march 2009 again? Will this be multi-year bear market?
Regards,
Shailesh Thakur, Mumbai, India
Date of Posting: 6th February 2010
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
Hold it for a while. Yes, we may see March low again. It is very fragile and fluid situation. Retain cash for major correction.
Shailesh Thakur
6 Feb 10 at 8:18 PM
Thanks a lot for this. You were to give inputs on Gitanjali as well. One more request..
Regards,
Rahul
London, UK
Rahul
6 Feb 10 at 7:59 PM
Dear Sir,
Today (6th Feb) I bought Gold bar from Bangalore refinery ( http://www.bangalorerefinery.com) of 1 OZ ( 31.14 gm) 999 purity with Bangalore refinery level on it. It costs me Rs. 51910/- in total. Considering today’s Gold price of $1066.5 / 1OZ ( source : http://www.goldprice.org) and currency converter $1 = 46.8068 ( source : http://economictimes.indiatimes.com), I paid around 3% dealer’s margin and 1% VAT.
i.e. 49919.45 + 1476.55 ( 3% dealers margin) + 514(1% VAT) = Rs. 51910/-
More over they buy back the gold with 1% deduction for VAT, so today if I sell I would get Rs. 51369/-.
I feel they are fair , considering your “Fair price Gold calculator” tool.What is your opinion on this. If you feel it is OK, I ll go ahead and invest around 1.5L more buying physical Gold.
Thanks,
Santosh, Bangalore, India.
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
3% margin is acceptable. It is okay to buy it.
There are two issues:
At the moment, there is direct connect between $, Gold prices overseas and Rupee. As result, when the dollar strengthens, gold price get lower. The rupee also get lower, so in India, the gold prices do not go down as much in rupee terms. Similarly, when the dollar weakens, the gold prices rise overseas (in $) but the rupee gets higher, diluting the price rise in India.
It is therefore difficult to time the purchase by balancing act between gold and rupee. It is better to look only at dollar/gold parity and buy it disregarding rupee effect.When the disconnect takes place between $ and Gold, the gold will skyrocket as projected by me. The rupee may rise but not to the extent of gold price rise. Rupee is sum of all economic activities in India, including gold. So when gold rises by say 50%, the rupee can not rise by equal percentage, giving you net gain in rupee terms.
So the reader should ignore stronger rupee effect in future. You have to consider net gain. We do not consider dollar /rupee parity while buying other commodities or assets, so why bother about old? Just go ahead and buy it.
Santosh
6 Feb 10 at 6:32 PM
Dear Sir,
Could i expect a reply on my query?
Thanks & Regards,
Sneshan,
Damascus, Syria,
Date: 6 Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Replied
Sneshan
6 Feb 10 at 6:11 PM
your views on GM INFRA – 200 purchased in May 2007 @ 143
ITC purchased in June 2006 for RS.185 around200
RIL what is the price at which I can enter
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably. To seek advice on any stock, mention (1) stock name, (2) Purchase Date (3) Qty, (4) @Cost and (5) CMP. Symbol not necessary. No reply will be posted if these 5 details are not given.
This post is marked for deletion for not adhering to this column’s norms with regard to (1) appending signaure with name,city and country and (2) for carelessly posting the query without spell check or proper capitalization of words.This post will be deleted within 3 days
Yagneswar, Chennai
6 Feb 10 at 5:36 PM
Hello Kalidasji,
Between Petronet and Oil India, what would you suggest ? As Oil India is also in gas business, I am interested in it and can hold it for long term. Other stocks on my radar are JSW Energy and Pfizer. Kindly comment on the same and in what steps to buy in the on going correction.
Hem, Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Petronet. did not follow others. I do not go for power or energy stocks. I like primary energy stocks – oil, gas etc which are used by power companies any way. When the base is making money, why go to higher floors?
Hem
6 Feb 10 at 4:07 PM
Dear Sir,
Do you think it is wise to invest 25% of the cash into equities if there is no major damage on the index till 9th Feb or is the view changed with eurozone sovereign debt rising to alarming levels. I intend to invest in Rnrl, IOC, HPCL and IFCI.
Thanks,
Neeraj.
Noida,India
neeraj
6 Feb 10 at 3:46 PM
Fantastic layout 5 out of 5 stars the colors are inspiring and refreshing.
Martin
Goa, India
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Thanks. I like it more the more I see it.
Martin
6 Feb 10 at 2:37 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
Istithmar exits SpiceJet (sold 3.14 cr shares @ 52)
http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_will-istithmar-s-exit-see-ross-s-spicejet-pie-rise_1343901
http://iplextra.indiatimes.com/article/01lsevA8AN6K0?q=Dubai+World
Can we conclude that the selling is over at this counter and it is ready for take off once the market stabilises ? Will 52-53 zone act as strong support zone ?
Please share your views on this.
Thanks
Srinivas
Bangalore, INDIA, 09:20 am IST
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
I do not watch day to day movement. After Mid-April 2010, this stock will add rs 10 per month in its stock value.
No investor makes the way for another investor if the money is still in table with hordes coming in. The analyst who opined in the article must be an idiot. If you are making money and chances are you will make100% more, will you make the way for me? What for? The investors are vultures – they pounce on dead meat. They do not go to temples or gurudwara to have free lunch.
Srinivas
6 Feb 10 at 11:49 AM
Sir,
‘starter’ question if I may ask:
I invested one lack accross PetrtoNet, UCOBank, Gold ETF, Abhishek Industries recently( and hold one lack cash). After seeing a paper profit of about 5% profit, now I am at a paper loss of 2%.
I being a long term ( 2+ years) investor, I would like to ask, should be buying more of these stocks now? or sell to stop further losses?
When you suggest buy PetroNet at < Rs70 with a 24 month target at Rs180, would you suggest I sell strocks everytime markets are falling ( as in last week) and and buy when it starts moving up within my waiting period of 24 months? I am fiding it difficult to follow this
Thanks you!
Raghu
Bangalore, India
Raghu
6 Feb 10 at 11:19 AM
Dear Sir ,
) Off late I am seeing more poetic Kalidasa like MMB days. That is very nice.
I just loved this analogy. Only maestros like you can do this. You have written this with such an ease in a poetic way but very difficult to perform reality. You have to be very very disciplined to tease here
Shiva
Bangaloe
India
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Money is a serious business. Money is also monkey business. We have to go upside down or jump branch to branch of a tree. (selling one stock, buying another)
shiva
6 Feb 10 at 8:16 AM
Dear Anil,
Usually I take the printout of your blog and read it while commuting for work.
Unfortunately with the new layout, I could not take printout directly from the webpage.
The new version is not compact enough. There is more space between the messages. And therefore it takes more pages to print it.
Regards
John,
Sydney, Australia
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Are you referring to Confused Mind Clear Answers comment book for print out? For articles, you can have PDF files from Scribd or Download Pools. Give me a few days to figure out with the new theme. Most readers liked it. It is eye pleasing and aesthetic. You can always have formated Confused Mind Clear Answers by month end.
John
6 Feb 10 at 5:57 AM
Sir,
I think you missed this query. Please reply.
Regards,
Sumit Gupta
Kolkata
India
Sumit Gupta
6 Feb 10 at 1:53 AM
Sir,
I have a similar question for you. I am 20% invested right now (almost equally in 5 stocks namely, IOC, Petronet, SpiceJet, UcoBank and PTC). The other 80% is in cash and FDs. Is it time to invest more or just wait till you give us a buy call? I am asking for long term investment only. I have no trading interest in any stock.
Thanks,
Pawan,
Delhi, India
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
It is too early to say when should you start investing on long term basis. The present scenario is not fully played out. Allocate abnother 20% in same stocks if they correct over 15% at least.
Make a fund of SOE sector by yourself and allocate 30% of total investment there. Out of this portion of entire pool, buy SOE Refiners: IOC, BPCL, , HPCL, MRPL from PSU, Essar Oil (refiner) and Cairn as producer (Private Sector)
Banks (PSU): UCO, Dena, IDBI
Finance companies: IFCI, M&M Finance
Toyota may bankrupt in 12/15 months. Honda will become prominent brand from Japan. Maruti with Suzuki connection may be in bargaining position. Next to benefit will be Honda and Tata Motors.
Pawan
6 Feb 10 at 1:03 AM
Thank you Sir for your guidance on TechM.
Agree with your calculations and anyway Satyam was 400+ before the Maytas news came out. But the very fact that companies are going to merged by June-Sep’10, isnt it true that all this Earning per share will come under TM’s PL statement and not Satyam’s. If you see last 1.5 months trend, both stocks are running with a fixed ratio which is 1:10. (rumour about possible ratio for merger). OR Am I missing a point and you are trying to say that Satyam might become 600 before merger happens?
will be grateful if you correct my understanding.
Regards,
Rahul
London, UK
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Satyam’s accounts are under “forensic audit” and will be over by June 10. So long as the company is not merged with TM,. its account will be independent. TM will be stupid, if they decide to merge. Satyam’s revenue may be larger than TM. A listed subsidiary make more money than parent one. If Satyam’s earnings are Rs 40 annualized, TM will be forced to give 1 TM share for every 3 or 4 Satyam share due to higher valuation of Satyam. 10:1 is ruled out, UNLESS TM manipulates the earnings of Satyam with view to gobble the whole company for a song.
Rahul
6 Feb 10 at 12:16 AM
Sirji,
Now I am enjoying the benefits of selling 80% stocks as per your guidance. Thanks a lot and…
What an Idea sirjiiiii….
Need your views on TATA motors and TATA steel. Do you think that they are turn around stories? Are they worth keeping in the long term portfolio(5 years)? OR one should move to some other stocks in the same sector?
also planning to buy Rpower below 130. Is it correct price to get in for 4-5 years or should wait?
I really liked your “Bol Radha Bol sangam ho ga ki nahin…” comment… good one. Will do the same for all my new buys.
Thanks, Harsh Patel, Ahmedabad, India.
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Tata Motors: Place it on radar to buy < 600
Tata Steel: Avoid altogether
Rpower: May be you can wait.
Harsh Patel
6 Feb 10 at 12:07 AM
No Problem Kalidasji..
If i have not abide by the rules set by you.. yes please delete the message..
we have to learn from our mistakes.. to keep this blog clean and tidy..
Regards,
Sreeram, London, UK
05 Feb 2010 1200hrs
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
If you want to use the table, use excellent html freeware called “Easy Text to html converter” . You can convert ordinary table to html or even format a bulleted or numbered list easily. I use it some times.
Sreeram, UK
5 Feb 10 at 7:59 PM
Dear Sir,
Although your new format adds colour to your blog, but somehow I like your old format. Reasons being 1. It was black and write , so I can read sometime in office without others’ being looking at the monitor 2. The text was more compact and easy to go though the recent posts and your comments quickly.
This is just my opinion, however you can format your blog as you wish.
Thanks,
-Santosh, Banglore, India
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
You are absolutely right. Before using the preseint colored scheme, I used another theme which was gray and white (not the oldest one). However, some readers complained that it took too long to load. Tolerate it for a few days. The trouble with oldest theme was that it was designed 2 years back and the author does not update it. As result of innovation in WordPress software are not fully reflected in that theme.
Santosh
5 Feb 10 at 7:52 PM
Dear Anil Sir,
The new theme just stands out, however a small request to shift the side bar from left to right as on a small screen, the content shifts to the right as the side bar nearly takes 1/3rd of the screen.
Also, your latest post suggests only physical gold/silver. Shall we refrain from investing into equities at all? If not, do you have any stock observatory recommendation for the special 11:00 am – 12:30 pm trading session on BSE/NSE on Saturday 6th Feb?
Regards
Anurag
Noida, India
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 05, 2010
I will do improvement this weekend. I also like the sidebar on the right but this is built in. However,there is SIDEBAR button on the top which is a toggle switch. if you click it, the sidebar collapses, and you see only the subject portion. If you click again, the sidebar reappears.
No, you can buy the equities – the one desired by you and that came down most. For instance, Petronet dropped a lot, so it was worth buying more than UCO bank or Dish TV. You can also buy Gold ETF because in India there are tighter regulations. Yes. physical is always better if there are not hassels. Keep it in your or bank’s safe
Anurag
5 Feb 10 at 7:31 PM
Hello Kalidasji,
What an in depth knowledge sir, Amazing article.
I am some how Happy that Gold really came down and i am buying some right away from TBZ.
I am also looking forward to buy Zero Coupon bonds, of course when you give a Buy call. Would you please let me know which bank I can approach to in Mumbai? And what is the minimum amount to invest in Zero Coupon bonds?
Regards,
Ashish
Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 05, 2010
You are on right track.
Ashish
5 Feb 10 at 7:04 PM
Dear Anilji:
The new theme is excellent. Keep up the one. !
Mr. Vora
Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 05, 2010
Thanks
Mr. Vora
5 Feb 10 at 6:23 PM
Anil ji,
Could you please advise me two stocks
1. Tech Mahindra. I have purchased 100 shares of Tech Mahindra in the first week of October’09 for 941 Rs. (believing that with Satyam merger EPS should go around 110-120 giving me decent price of 1500+ in 9 months period. Can I be patient or need to sell this & sit on cash for next 1-2 months? Currently stock is at 930Rs.
2. I have purchased 700 Gitanjalali @ 120Rs over past few months. I somehow strongly believe that it is going to be next TITAN. What will be your short term advice? Stock is in 110+ range due to turmoil in global markets.
Request for your guidance.
-RRR
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 05, 2010
Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably.
When Tech Mahindra wanted to buy Satyam, it means that they considered it more valuable than TM. Satyam head count came down from 53K to 30K, which means that their wage bill, presuming Rs 50,000 per employee, must have been down by 20,000 x 480,000 = Rs 960 crores or Rs 14.32. Add it up to Rs 35 projected on existing project. That means Satyam will earn Rs 35 to 50K per share against share price of Rs 95.
Now Tech Mahindra – Est EPS Rs 120 Multiple 12 = Rs 1440(cost Rs 941) Gain 53%
Satyam – Est EPS Rs 50 Multiple 12 = Rs 600 (cost Rs 95) Gain 531%
Thus, buying Satyam is 10 times more profitable on liberal basis, and 7 times on conservatove basis
MORALE: Sell Tech Mahindra and BUY Satyam. Same group, same industry, same management. Ask yourself where the proft lies more.
Gitanjali gem – will reply later
Rahul
5 Feb 10 at 6:17 PM
Dear Kalidas
Is this the start of the correction that you foretold. Should we keep adding to the stocks you have recommended more aggresively now?
Peter
Mumbai
India
05-02-10
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 05, 2010
Yes. There are no rules. However, do not buy everyday. Best time to buy when the stocks have slid for 3 days, 5 days and Seven days in a row. The stock usually slide on odd numberday and rise on even numbers day. this is not hard and fast rule, but often it follows this pattern.
You have to tease the stock before buying. One day you buy it, then two days you ignore it. This way you do not develop too much attachment, and at the same time develop some sort of affinity. It is more like “Bol Radha Bol sangam ho ga ki nahin and the answer is nahin, nahin kabhi nahin. And then after repeated attraction, you have to say, jao na kyoon satate ho, hoga hoga jarur hoga.
Peter
5 Feb 10 at 6:03 PM
Dear Sir,
It was such a pleasure talking to you. As mentioned I have instructed to sell the Motorola shares tonight.
Just to confirm the difference in the shares,please confirm the following qtys are correct based on the exact number of shares I own.
Thank You very much!
Nisha, Hong Kong
05/02/2009
Description
Do
Qty
C
Price
Amt +/-
Remarks
US Stocks & Options
…
…
…
…
…
…
Motorola
SELL
5800
$
…
Motorola LEAP Stk12.5 Jan12
BUY
58C
$
…
Fannie Mae
BUY
2900
$
…
FNM LEAP Calls Stk2.5 Jan12
BUY
58C
$
…
Freddie Mae
BUY
2900
$
…
Indian ADRs (Listed in USA)
…
…
…
Satyam Computer- ADR
BUY
1740
$
…
Satyam Calls Jul10 Stk7.5
BUY
29C
$
MTNL- ADR
BUY
2900
$
TATA Motors – ADR
BUY
464
$
Dr. Reddy ADR
BUY
174
$
…
…
$
Nisha
5 Feb 10 at 6:02 PM
Hi Kalidas Sir,
What are your views on Network Marketing ? Is it a long term Asset which can give continuous long team real huge incomes without my time ?
Thanks
Sagar
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
what is it? Are you talking about multilevel marketing? If you are, stay away.
Sagar
5 Feb 10 at 5:07 PM
Dear Sir,
Thanks for your timely advice (i.e. not to go for sugar and coal stocks at present) which saved me from the loss.
I have just read your latest artice and would like to get clarified from you on the following:
My investment in Gold is in both physical and HSBC -Gold Statement A/c in the ratio of 40% and 60% respectively. This I did for the reason that I can’t buy/sell physically during my office time as such I opted for 60% HSBC gold statement a/c .
Is the above is ok to continue or irrespective of the above reason, need to liquidate and to buy only physical gold.
Appreciate your kind advice.
Thanks a lot onceagain.
Kind Regards,
Balaji-Hong Kong.
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
HSBC is okay for the time being. However, it does not take more than 20 minutes to sell gold anywhere in Hong Kong. You may continue your position
Balaji
5 Feb 10 at 4:52 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
Could i request you to advise on be mentioned holdings and suggest me if any modification is required.
1. INR 8,00,000 @ 8% interest in One year Bank FD (Maturing in April 2010) – 45% of total investment
2. 200 gram Physical Gold @ 1175 USD (Rs .17760 / 10 gm) – 20% of total investment (Down – 9.3%)
3. RNRL 1000 Nos. @ Rs. 88 – 5% of total investment (CMP 63 Down – 29%)
4. RCom 300 Nos. @ 235 – 4 % of total investment (CMP 161 Down – 32%)
5. Spicejet 3000 Nos. @ 59.2 – 10% of total investment (CMP 54 – Down 9.3%)
6 M & M Finance 300 Nos. @ 334 – 5.7% of total investment (CMP 318 -Down 5.4%)
7 UCO Bank 3000 Nos. @ 60.32 – 10.3 % of total investment (CMP 55 – Down9.5%)
Total Present holding 17,72,000 INR approx. (I had also booked loss of INR 1,90,000 which is not included here)
I can continue with these holding for another 2-3 years but if i am making any major mistakes ahead of ongoing / upcoming market turmoil then please advise me.
Thanks & Kind regards,
Sneshan,
Damascus, SYRIA
Date: 5 Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
There are no mistakes. Hold on to them. The market is weak. Try to buy RNRL and RCOM because price difference is wide. Do nothing for others for the time being.
Sneshan
5 Feb 10 at 4:32 PM
Sorry, my first post.
I shall adhere to the rules henceforth.
Regards,
Jyothsna
Chennai,India
5.2.10
jyothsna
5 Feb 10 at 3:56 PM
A small typo error above…You have suggested buy Gold in physical form.
Prashant Kumar
Pune
Kumar
5 Feb 10 at 2:18 PM
Dear Sir,
I have my all invest in gold in the form of ETF – Goldbees and Quantum. You said that electronic banking wil be the first casuality and suggested to buy in Gold. Are you saying that even India i won’t be able to sell Gold ETFs when i want to.
Prashant Kumar
Pune
Kumar
5 Feb 10 at 2:13 PM
Sir,
You must be expecting this question. Where are Gold and Silver going to stop? What is the reason behind such a big fall?
Rajesh Sharma
5 Feb 10 at 2:01 PM
Respected Sir,
Based on your comments in Stock Observatory for MTNL, do you suggest that it is even better to invest in MTNL rather than RCOM? To keep it simple, which one is better, MTNL or RCOM in telecom space?
Best Regards,
Anurag
Ghaziabad, U.P.
India
Anurag
5 Feb 10 at 1:57 PM
SUBJECT: Seeking opinion on IOB stock.
Kalidas Ji,
Off-late, IOB share price has corrected from 130+ to 86 due to falling QoQ revenues and rising NPAs (thanks to ill-timed acquisition of Sri Suvarna Sahakari Bank). Do you think we can buy into IOB now for med- to long-term? Or is there more pain to be seen?
Regards,
Vivek Bhandari
Dubai, UAE
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 05, 2010
Go for UCO BANK instead. It will make more money than IOB, although IOB is also cheap. I worked for that bank for 19 years, and I can say that it has more competent officers than in any other bank. Split into two 60:40
Vivek Bhandari
5 Feb 10 at 12:42 PM
PETRONET LNG
Dear Sir,
I have Purchased 5000 shares of Petronet at an average price of 76.3 in last two days.
I want to buy 5000 shares more of Petronet. Therefore Should I buy more today at CMP-73 or
should I wait for more decline?
I dont have any other Shares in my Portfolio and only want to invest in Petronet Lng.
I want to hold this Shares for 15-18 months.
Please Advice.
Sakchi, Delhi , India
05/02/2010
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 05, 2010
Write 71.35 for 2000 and 66.35 for 3000
sakchi
5 Feb 10 at 12:14 PM
Greetings Sir,
Thanks for all the efforts and guidance you provide !!!
I hold ITD Cementation (details mentioned below). What do you think is the future of the sector and the stock in specific. Should I increase my position at CMP or wait for correction?
Purchase date: 18/05/2009
Purchase Price: 131.40
CMP: 186.15
Quantity: 300
Regards,
Sumit Gupta
Kolkata, India
Sumit Gupta
5 Feb 10 at 11:55 AM
Sir,
I have ispat at Rs.22…what shall I do with this share? Please advice.
Jyothsna, chennai,5.2.10
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 05, 2010
Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably. Spell check your message and capitalize the words properly before you post. To seek advice on any stock, mention (1) stock name, (2) Purchase Date (3) Qty, (4) @Cost and (5) CMP. Symbol not necessary. No reply will be posted if these 5 details are not given.
Hold and Buy more in two stages 16, 12,. The correction has started, you do not have extra money to invest, sell 40% with a view to using same money to buy same stock at lower level. Unless you give proper info, I can not guide you. Read the section at the top which gives you guidelines.
This post is marked for deletion for not adhering to this column’s norms with regard to (1) appending signaure with name,city and country and (2) for carelessly posting the query without spell check or proper capitalization of words.This post will be deleted within 3 days
jyothsna
5 Feb 10 at 11:50 AM
Sir,
Why should we invest 10%-20% in such a risky market when a chance of Tsunami is still alive? Even all your recommended stocks would be equally affected in major fall, why we should pay more. Also, if 1 bus is missed, there are 100 in queue. If you were me, what you have done?
Naresh, Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 05, 2010
I always write as if I were you.
In stock market, there are always some special situations. Further, if you do not have any amount invested in stocks, you lose touch with the market.
naresh
5 Feb 10 at 1:45 AM
Dear Sir,
Some new items have entered in your recommendation list. Can you please throw some light on prospects of these new entrants in your team?
1) Ruchi Soya
2) Exide industries.
3) MTNL.
Which one of the above is most preferred by you? I want to put 5% in any 1 of the above.
Mukesh, New Delhi, India, February 4, 2010
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 05, 2010
Exide Industries, Ruchi Soya, MTNL in that order in India]
MTNL as the ADR for NRI Investors
mukesh
5 Feb 10 at 1:35 AM
Sorry sir.
The table printed vertically long taking lots of space. it was alright when i was about to print..
sreeram, london, UK
1600hrs 4th Feb ’10
Sreeram, UK
4 Feb 10 at 11:57 PM
Dear Kalidasji:
I have a query about the abrupt raise in the Volumes of a stock, one of the stock in Tsx-SGQ (Coal Company) which i mentioned in my previous messages, i just wanted to know what we should make out of the VOLUMES;
Since last 10-12days the volumes have raisen nearly 10-12times (at that time the news is it is going to launch IPO in Hong Kong exchange on 29th Jan 10), though it fell 10-12% on the IPO day again with 15-20times volumes; The average volumes of this company before this news is just 10K-20K but now it is minimum of 80K-120K;
But i have observed that the Volumes raise atleast 5-6times on a positive day when the stock is raising and Volumes are DROP 5-6times on a negative day, that means when the stock is falling?
Out of your experience can you please let me know what we should make out of this? I know the Global cues are not good to buy anything now.. but just want to know what the Volumes imply?
Many Thanks,
Regards,
Sreeram, London, UK
1600hrs, 4th Feb 2010
Please see the table i am posting from their web:
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 05, 2010
Sorry, I had to delete this. I have mentioned number of times that you better provide links, instead of producing numbers that can not be tabulated by the program.
In any case, I am not able to guide you on the question posed by you. The volume alone is not an indicator. Often such volumes are cross trading between the participating brokers.
Sreeram, UK
4 Feb 10 at 11:55 PM
Sir,
Condition that this column is meant for companies having turnover 500 Crores is very stringent as mid cap companies would be left out in this column. Kindly reduce it to 100 Crores turn over/ Market cap.
Kindly enlighten on the two companies of auto ancillary sector asked by Mr. Nitin today as question was withdrawn by him later. I am holding 500 stocks of each company.
Regards
Arun
Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 05, 2010
There are over 6000 stocks. It is not possible for me to know every stock. I have to have some criteria to follow the stock. Further, I do not look at illiquid counters unless the companies are really good one with long history. There is always a cut off point. My limit of Rs 500 crores is not a stringent one but a broad criteria to filter out little known stocks.
If someone wants me to follow or report him for such little known stocks, he has to use Portfolio Counsel, not this column.
Arun
4 Feb 10 at 11:54 PM
Hello Sir,
I am preparing to buy a resell Flat in Pune for my own use in a decent locality the rates are also Ok. I will be investing almost everything I have(Approx 6 lacs) to buy this flat( Plus taking a loan of 26 to 28 Lacs). My income is 58000/- per month with no other loan.Currently I am stayingin rented flat (8200/ month).
After reading your recent posts, I am little scared and wanted you advice if I should go ahead with my decision or wait for some more time?
Regards,
Brawny M, Pune, India
3:00 PM (IST)
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 04, 2010
It is difficult to advise you because I do not know the price/sft, size of proposed flat, size of present flat and conditions etc. from available information.
Brawny M
4 Feb 10 at 5:32 PM
Sir,
Please let us know your view on NTPC FPO. I already have 400 Shares of NTPC @ 180 Rs/-
Regards
Anand Siva
Sydney
04-Feb-2010
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 04, 2010
Solid company but not much growth. It may have hidden value due to real estates possessed in early decades but they are never going to sell it anyway. PE around 20 and with new FPO, PE may be higher than immediate past. Public favorite, but do not see much return. More downside than upside under present uncertain world market. I have already mentioned that avoid all IPO and FPO. There are simply too many shares.
I would look for elsewhere in energy sector. If you like popularity contest, stay there and get dipper. If you need performance, go elsewhere.
ANAND SIVA
4 Feb 10 at 8:51 AM
Dear Anil,
Please ignore my question below, I read your request after posting my comments. Sorry about that.
Thanks
Nitin – Washington DC USA
Nitin
4 Feb 10 at 2:09 AM
Dear Anil,
What’s your view on auto ancillary stocks ? I was looking for some stocks in this domain, some of them mentioned below:
1) Banco Products (India) Ltd
500039 BANCO Group (S) BSE,
CMP: 85.95
PE ratio 14.43 02/02/10
EPS (Rs) 5.80 Mar, 09
2) Igarashi Motors India Ltd.
CGIGARSH Group (T) BSE
CMP: 47.15
PE ratio -1.03 02/02/10
EPS (Rs) -43.45 Mar, 09
Do you have any other stocks which comes in your radar for auto parts domain ?
Thanks
Nitin
Washington DC USA
Nitin
4 Feb 10 at 2:04 AM
IMPORTANT
Please note that this forum is meant for asking very brief and specific question which has affected the readers badly. This column is NOT MEANT for
Please use Portfolio solution if the reader is seriously interested in having full opinion on a stock which is not on my watch list. It takes 45 minutes to read and form a opinion about any stock.
Readers’ cooperation will be much appreciated.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
4 Feb, 2010
Anil Selarka
4 Feb 10 at 12:45 AM
Thanks again. I did a search and found following link
http://www.rbi.org.in/commonman/English/Scripts/FAQs.aspx?Id=26
Section II. Liberalised Remittance Scheme of USD 200,000 describes all the details about the rules.
I am planning to send about 150K USD to my india resident account to be put into a Fixed Deposit.
1) Do I need to file tax return in India to declare the incoming 150K in my resident account? I currently don’t file tax in India even though I have sent around 40K USD to my resident accounts over last 2 years.
2) Can I remit that money back to USA after 2 years under current RBI rules or is it only for domestic residents?
Apologies for so many questions but I believe the answers will benefit hundreds of your NRI readers who may have the same doubts.
Thanks,
Harish Vyas
San Diego, USA
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 04, 2010
1) Remittance and Taxation are two different issues. One can remit any amount to his local or NRE account in India. There is no prohibition. Taxation comes into play when income is created out of remittance.
When one place the amount in local fixed deposit, the banks are required to deduct TDS (Tax Deduction at Source) @ 10% or so(if interest income exceed certain amount) , unless one feels that he is not taxable. In that case, the banks ask for submitting Form 15H (such form is available for download from Income Tax Dept web site). If the tax is deducted at source, there is no need to file a tax return if the person does not have any other source of income which may be taxable.
In your case, there is no need to file Tax Return if the TDS applies. Strictly speaking one is required to file Tax Return if he is having taxable income. However, the tax department does not insist on such return if the person has paid tax under TDS
2) It applies to all residents. When your money lies in domestic deposit, it is treated as if you are a local resident.
There is comprehensive guide from RBI web site for Non Resident Indians. There is another useful resource Handbook for NRI (112 pp document)
Please note that the opinion based above is for your preliminary information. You may contact some CA (Chartered Accountant) for more information. My experience is that they are too technical.
Harish Vyas
4 Feb 10 at 12:12 AM
Dear Sir,
off late you have been making quite a few “Buy” calls – like IOC,MRPL, Astavinayaka etc.
Are you by any chance hinting that we could enter these stocks at these levels irrespective of your earlier call of Sell All – till Feb 9 ?. Is this a definite value zone for these stocks?
also, i miss your well thought out articles off late. I hope that you would make some time to write your detailed opinions as articles . Your recent thoughts on US China spat was very good – may be you could elaborate on possible courses of action for US & its impact on global economy as a whole. Just a thought.
regards
Raghav
Mumbai,India
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 04, 2010
You are missing the point by reading “Indian Stock Observatory” column in isolation. My “SELL” call remain very much intact and readers have already sold upto 80% to 90% of their portfolio. The buy calls for special situations are related to balance 10% of the investment allocated to equity,
The idea is that even if the market tanks by 50%, the potential loss to the reader will be at the most3% to 5% of entire investment budget. By remaining invested even for 10%, he remain in touch with the market on daily basis. If he sells everything, he may not be bothered about the market, and will be stopping his study.
Raghav
3 Feb 10 at 11:55 PM
Sir,
Cranes Software (BSE code 512093) having CMP 22.0 is available at bottom as net profit is in declining trend. Sir, can it be accumulated now for windfall gains in next 2 years ?
Regards
Arun
Mumbai. India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
I do not follow software or high tech stocks. No opinion therefore
Arun
3 Feb 10 at 11:17 PM
Dear Sir,
Do you think the recent spat between China and US will force China to move quickly towards gold by dumping dollars then they would have liked? How Gold will play out in these currency wars?
Regards,
Vivek, Gurgaon, India, 3rd Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Your question is bordering on unnecessary discussion. This is not the purpose of this column
Vivek
3 Feb 10 at 11:09 PM
Dear Sir,
Thanks a million for such a detailed reply. You mentioned there are other avenues to transfer the money from India to abroad. Can you please shed some more light on this?
I have always dreamed about sending the money to India to get benefit of higher interest rates but never did that because I don’t know how to bring the money back to USA once it has been deposited in resident bank accounts.
Thanks,
Harish Vyas,
San Diego, US
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
I understand that under new regulation, even domestic Indians are permitted to remit upto USD 100k abroad. I do not have authentic information, though. Check RBI website
Harish Vyas
3 Feb 10 at 10:57 PM
Dear Kalidas,
You missed to reply to my request. I am planning to hold these script until Budget.What are your thought’s on the above scripts? Do you suggest to move into some other scripts or remain invested for sometime.
Thanks
Amit, Delhi, India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
see the reply to your old post
Amit
3 Feb 10 at 10:45 PM
ABAN OFFSHORE
Dear Kalidasji
Looking forward to see your comments on following query ( posted on 02.02.2010
Please can you share your thoughts on Aban Offshore. Average cost : Rs 1325
Qty: 150
Purchase date : Aug 2009
CMP: 1201
Link : http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=523204
Should I buy more ? What could be long tem view for 3-6 months or 1 year
SUCHITRA
MUMBAI , INDIA
02.02.20
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Honestly, I do not like exploration companies. They are mostly “story stocks” and highly speculative. On the face of it, it looks fully priced, but my study is incomplete and could be flawed. In such companies, we have to rely more on what they tell us that can not be easily verified. Although the company is a 1000 crore company and could be considered reliable, I do not as policy look at them. We have many simpler companies to make money. Better consult others.
Suchitra
3 Feb 10 at 9:48 PM
Respected Sir,
In one of your earlier reply, you recommended to sell Nagarjuna Fertilizers. The logic behind your reasoning is Fertilizers are price and politically sensitive and the companies fortunes are linked to Fertilizer policy which changes very often during Budget time. The same logic goes to State Oil refineries. But you are recommending them very strongly. Another point I want to bring to your notice is Global investors like George Soros, Mohinish Pabrais are increasingly investing in Fertilizer companies visualizing shortage of Agricultural commodities and lack of new capacities.
Dish TV is another scrip I am holding 1500 shares at Rs.42. Since your recommendations are proving correct I thought of purchasing more shares. But I am unable to get its valuation at Rs80/Rs.92 within four months as you recommended. Can you pl throw light on this subject.
Petronet LNG is another scrip which may miss your target of Rs.11 EPS in the current year due to absence of spot market thanks to RIL increased supply. You also voiced that Petronet may be affected by RIL gas on short term basis. In this context can you advise to wait for corrections to increase purchase in Petronet.
Interactions with you are rewarding and with that more questions are generated, but your time is also valuable to all of us. Kindly enlighten us.
Regards,
V.S.Kumar, Jorhat
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
You are comparing apple and oranges. Just compare the scale of operation. Nagarjun has revenue of 2300 crores vs.IOC’s 329,000 crores or 160 times. Oil, Petrol and Kerosene, and gas is used by almost entire population, whereas Fertilizer is used only by Farmers who are a vote bank where price increase can cost the election. Not so for oil and its derivatives. There is a talk about decontrolling oil prices, not for fertilizers.
Your other questions are repetitive. Reasons have been given why DishTV could go to Rs 80/92 in 4 months. Read them again. So also for Petronet where even full report has been posted. Use your judgment. There is no change in my views or projections.
V.S.KUMAR
3 Feb 10 at 8:27 PM
Dear Anilji,
This is reference to your short article on US-China relation in stock Observatory Section.
If China continuously denied buying US Treasury Bill & US may intensified its action against China & considering China may or may not take any action, what can happen to Gold/Silver prices in your views?
If we believe some Westerns news blog US is recently increased its activity in Persian Gulf. How you read this situation?
Thanks.
Parag
Surat
India
Date: 3-2-2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
When that stage starts developing, we will evaluate situation at that time. Gold/Silver have same target as mentioned in our Article on Gold 6400/Silver 80. The reasons have been well explained there. We want to avoid converting this column into discussion forum.
Parag, Surat
3 Feb 10 at 7:50 PM
Dear sir,
I haven’t yet got a reply on my post dated 1/2/2010…I know its only been few days however I am very confused on what to do with my portfolio. I have attached the question below once again for your kind guidance. Thank You!
Sir,
I have still not sold my Motorola shares, as prices are dropping daily. You also mentioned to wait before buying FNM and Freddie Mac. Please advise if I should still wait and hold onto Motorola or should I dispose it now and shift to any other share, Indian stock market or Gold/Silver?
Awaiting your advise,
Nisha, Hong Kong
01/02/1010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
I asked you to wait for buying FNM/FRE, not for selling Motorola. At the moment, do the following (presuming you still have 20,000 shares)
Description
Do
Qty
C
Price
Amt +/-
Remarks
US Stocks & Options
…
…
…
…
…
…
Motorola
SELL
10000
$
6.55
65,500
…
Motorola LEAP Stk12.5 Jan12
BUY
100C
$
0.33
(3,300)
…
Fannie Mae
BUY
5000
$
1.02
(5,050)
…
FNM LEAP Calls Stk2.5 Jan12
BUY
100C
$
0.13
(1,300)
…
Freddie Mae
BUY
5000
$
1.21
(6,050)
…
Indian ADRs (Listed in USA)
>
…
…
…
Satyam Computer- ADR
BUY
3000
$
5.10
(15,300)
…
Satyam Calls Jul10 Stk7.5
BUY
50C
$
0.20
(1000)
=10,000s
MTNL- ADR
BUY
5000
$
3.10
(12,500)
=15,000s
TATA Motors – ADR
BUY
800
$
15.60
(12,480)
= 800s
Dr. Reddy ADR
BUY
300
$
25.00
(7,500)
= 300s
…
…
$
…
1,020
…
US STOCKS
…
…
…
…
…
Motorola
…
10000
…
…
…
Motorola Call Options Jan 12
…
10000
…
…
…
Fannie Mae
…
5000
…
…
…
FNM Calls LEAP Jan12 St 2.5
…
10000
…
…
…
INDIAN ADRs
…
…
…
…
Satyam
…
3000
…
…
=6000s
Satyam Call Jul10 St 7.50
…
5000
…
…
=10000s
MTNL
…
5000
…
…
=15000s
TATAMOTORS
…
800
…
…
=800s
Dr.Reddy Lab
…
300
…
…
=300s
CAUTION: some short term call options like Satyam and Fannie Mae could turn Zero if the stock price does not rise and exceed the strike price level.
MOTOROLA call option extends into 2012. If the company recovers, you will not only have entire 20,000 shares of Motorola intact but will also have 4 solid company’s shares like Satyam, MTNL, Tata Motors & Dr Reddy without spending single cent from your pocket.
If the situation works in your favor, it could earn fabulous money. You will owe me a coffee
If you do not understand, call me on 9100 2754 – Do not post enquiry – I will not reply. even this reply took me over 1 hour
Nisha
3 Feb 10 at 6:29 PM
Sir ,
Suddenly why US is moving so aggressively( creating issues ) against China like proposed ARM deal with Taiwan / Meeting with Dalai Lama (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVBJKgKYzj7I&pos=9) Is it just for putting pressure on China to buy US Bonds or some thing else is cooking inside?
Shiva
Bangalore
India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Congratulations – you are quick to learn. See the US-China Conundrum in today’s Stock Observatory which seconds your views.
shiva
3 Feb 10 at 2:25 PM
Dear Anil Ji
I still have rnrl 5000@73.50(CMP 63.55) and TTLS 9,000@32 (CMP25.15). I have only above stocks being 20% of my portfolio, balance 20% is goldetf (goldbees) and 60% cash.
Could you please suggest what I should do in current scenario with my stocks and cash.
Thank you
Anil Doshi, Malaysia
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Sell 1000 RNRL and buy 3000 TTML
or alternatively, if you are prepared to take some risk, opt for Shree Ashta Vinayak (NSE symbol SHREEASHTA.NS) below Rs 21. It has gained recently by 50%, so pick it up in correction. When this stock falls below Rs 20 in market correction, swap 50% of TTML for this stock. Watch my comments in Stock Observatory today (after 2:00 PM India time)
Anil Doshi
3 Feb 10 at 11:34 AM
Kalidasji,
This is in reference to the reply given by you for my query raised on 2-Feb, my investment budget is 6 lac Rs.
Request you to suggest allocation strategy.
Thanks & Regards,
Atul
Singapore
Atul
3 Feb 10 at 9:11 AM
Dear Sir,
A hypothetical question. Please ignore this question if you do not want to answer.
What would be the effect on RNRL if supreme court rules that RNRL will win the case but cannot trade the gas or use it until the power projects are in production?
Would the stock then stagnate at a range for years?
Regards,
Shankar
Atlanta USA
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
The court has to decide the validity of the agreement. It is not the Court’s job to list out any conditions. Their job is to apply the law as it is.
Shankar
3 Feb 10 at 6:00 AM
Dear Kalidas,
Request your advice on the following stocks.
1. NMDC LTD 60@ 480, CMP=482 (2/3/2010)-Kalidas View: SELL
2. K Sera Sera 1000@13.10, CMP=13.75(2/3/2010)-Kalidas View: do not follow
3. Atul 200@101, CMP=83. (2/3/2010)-Kalidas View: hold
4. South Indian Bank 200@150, CMP=137 (2/3/2010)-Kalidas View: hold
5. Oswal Chemical & Fertilizers 1000@19, CMP=19.85 (2/3/2010)-Kalidas View: don’t follow
Do you see any appreciation in the above stocks or suggest a switch?
Thanks
Amit
Delhi, India 03/02/2010 1:45am
Amit
3 Feb 10 at 4:14 AM
Respected Sir,
Today I did 2 things:
a) Swapped 150 GMR Infra at 61.40 with 150 UCO Bank at 60.70
b) Bought 100 Satyam Comp at 100.25
Kindly confirm I did the right thing.
Also please give your views on RCOM, NTPC, Power Grid and Unitech which are on my buying radar but I will buy only after your approval.
Thanks & Regards,
Anurag
Ghaziabad, U.P.
India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Well done. Go for RCOM for the time being. Others I do not favor, If you have to go for power stocks, and have patience, prefer only RNRL which may not perform well short term, but in 8 to 12 months, it will give better return than others. This stock at present price is a steal with target well above 180 now.
Anurag
3 Feb 10 at 2:09 AM
Sir,
What is your view about sugar sector ? Kindly tell , any Indian sugar stock which is most likely to gain after present correction is over?
Regards
Arun
Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
To me, they have seen the peak. They should soon be on downtrend after 3% rise in overseas market. Try to get out in recent rally.
Arun
3 Feb 10 at 12:56 AM
Dear Sir,
Buying capacity : INR 10 to 20000
Please advise preferable bet between RPOWER & NTPC for may be 2-3 year term.
Also, please advise between DISH TV & UCO BANK.
Sumit Kr. Agarwal
Kanpur, INDIA
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
If have budget of 10 to 20,000, better buy 250 shrs of Dish TV and 180 shares of UCO bank. Forget others.
SUMIT KR AGARWAL
3 Feb 10 at 12:47 AM
Dear Sir,
I have questions regarding 401(K) investing. I have been contributing to 401(K) since 2008. I now have around $40,000 in my account but my returns have been less than 0.5% annualized.
i) Currently I am 100% in Bonds. Can you please guide me how and when to reallocate? I have an option to open a broker account and actively manage my 401K account by investing in ETFs.
ii) Secondly does 401(K) even make sense at all if I am not sure of whether I will be in US in the long term?
iii) Could you please write an article on investing in 401(K)? I have saved all your articles on finance and value your guidance on this.
Thanks,
Hari,
San Jose, USA
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
I have yet to study the regulations relating to 401(K). After a few days, I will let you know under this space and also by email
Hari
3 Feb 10 at 12:37 AM
Dear sir,
I am in USA for a couple of years now.
I don’t have any NRI bank account and I still have my resident bank accounts that I had before coming to USA
I usually send money to India in my resident accounts and put them into Fixed Deposits.
Am I violating any tax laws by doing this? Can you please suggest what is the best way to avail the India’s Fixed Deposit rates without breaking any rule/law.
Thanks
Harish Vyas
San Diego, USA
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
You are not breaking any law by placing the deposit on your local deposit account to get higher rates. The only thing that happens is that you can not repatriate in dollar terms, but there are also avenues under which you can transfer the savings or amount abroad.
When you place the deposit in local accounts, your bank may ask you to provide PAN number, which you can apply on line to get the PAN card abroad. The banks usually deduct TDS @ 10% if the interest amount exceeds certain amount. Once TDS is deducted, you do not have to worry about the taxes UNLESS you have losses in other area which can be set off against deposit interest income.
If you are filing tax return every year, then you can list out deposit income and also the chargeable losses against this income. If you are chargeable to tax, you may produce TDS certificate so that your Net Tax liability will be less. TDS means that you have provisionally paid the tax.
Open NRI account with a bank different than the bank where you have local deposit account. This will avoid conflicts at the local bank holding your local account. Also, for local deposits, do not give your overseas address, just give your local address, otherwise, your account may be categorized as NRO (Non Resident Ordinary) Account and deduct almost 30% TDS instead of 10% normally. I was told that NRO account also deduct 10% now, but I do not have proper information in this regard.
Harish Vyas
3 Feb 10 at 12:32 AM
Kalidasji,
I have followed your sale call and am now sitting on cash with the exception of state owned refiner stocks.
After reading your replies to the monthly CMCAs it seems that we have still not seen the real tsunami.
I am ready to wait further even while some of your suggested stocks are now at relatively attractive levels from long term perspective.
Is this the right approach to wait until the crisis is played in full?
Regards,
Atul
Singapore
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Buy some Petronet, Spijet and Dish in first instalment. Do not be scared. Also, please mention your investment budget so that we can suggest appropriate allocation strategy
Atul
2 Feb 10 at 11:12 PM
Dear Sir,
Request advise on the following stocks:
1) 700 IFCI @ 35; CMP 51.80
2) 350 UCO BANK @ 57.1; CMP 59.20
I’m in no hurry to sell above stocks but is it worth to hold them?
Sumit Kr. Agarwal,
Kanpur, INDIA
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Hold IFCI till budget or if the stock goes to Rs 63.50 or about. Then sell 500
UCO BANK : Buy 450 more to make it 800 shrs. Hold thereafter.
SUMIT KR AGARWAL
2 Feb 10 at 10:19 PM
Dear Anilji,
Not sure if you remember me. Sometime in October last year i had written that i had Rs.1.5 Lakhs to invest and based on your advice i had invested Rs.40000 in the follwing - (1000 Abhishek @16, 200 UCO Bank @ 57 and 150 Ambuja Cements @ 90).
Just wondering if the time has come to put another 40000 – 50000 in the markets?
If Yes, can you please suggest 1/2 scrip(s) among Spicejet, Dish TV, Ispat Inds and IOC taking 1 year perspective?
Regards,
Sonali Bhatt, Chennai, India
02/02/2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
To seek advice on any stock, mention (1) stock name, (2) Purchase Date (3) Qty, (4) @Cost and (5) CMP. Symbol not necessary. No reply will be posted if these 5 details are not given. Please guide yourselves in future.
Buy UCO Bank 300 more at < 60; Buy Dish TV 500@ <43.50; Spicejet 200 @ market for time being
Sonali Bhatt
2 Feb 10 at 9:10 PM
Hi,
REC- rural electrification corporation.
In response to your question about my previous post.
Regards
Anand SivaSydney02-Feb-2009
ANAND SIVA
2 Feb 10 at 8:09 PM
Hello Sir
In one of your replies to Raj on 31st Jan 2010, you mentioned as below:
Quote “Next week may be broad indicator. If no major damage is seen before 9th February, people may raise the equity level from 10% at present (per my suggestion) to 25% because other investment avenue is not yielding enough.”
UnQuote:
Sir, Can you please explain this in more detail sir.. What you meant?
Is it that if no major crash or correction happens/ starts by 9th Feb. we should all again start buying the Stocks? or
Do you think some corrective measures are being done by US Admin that will stop the correction to happen;
Please takeout some time at your convenience and put this in some details so that people who cashed dont panic and poke you with questions every 10-20points raise in DOW or NIFTY;
Thanks a Ton for your great work and sharing of knowledge which we cant find in any books for sure.
Jasmeer, Toronto, Canada- Feb 2nd 2010
Jasmeer
2 Feb 10 at 7:41 PM
NTPC
Dear Sir,
Can I apply in NTPC Follow On Public Offer.
Price has been fixed at 201. CMP- 206
Basant Kejriwal, Delhi, India
02/02/2010, 5.02 PM (IST)
Basant
2 Feb 10 at 7:31 PM
Hello Sir,
My Query is about options( Calls or Puts). If I am negative about market, what should I prefer, buying a high value option( say Nifty March 4700 Put at Rs 141) or a low value option(Nifty March 4000 Put is at Rs 17.30). Kindly Advise.
Sanman
Goregaon, Mumbai,
India, February 02, 2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 03, 2010
I do not advise on futures and options as policy.
Sanman Kelkar
2 Feb 10 at 6:14 PM
Interesting Read.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/02/us/politics/02deficit.html?hp
Martins
Goa, India
Martin
2 Feb 10 at 2:21 PM
Sir,
I have 2500 DISH TV at 46.50, What can I do, book loss or purchases more at current level. Advise me
AMIT GUPTA
AJMER
RAJ.
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Always write the country’s name, not your state. How many times I have to remind the readers. I feel sick.
Hold it for a while. You will make money in May. Until such time focus on your job or business or take a long holiday. Dish TV will pay for it.
amit gupta
2 Feb 10 at 1:41 PM
Hello sir,
Can you please suggest on IFCI, is there any strong upward trend expecting in this budget season? or do u suggest to enter below Rs.50?
Thanking you,
krishna
Hyderabad
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 02, 2010
There is no clear trend at the moment. Since budget is near, there is possibility of some policy decision announced about stake sale. There will not be any buyer, however. This circus is going on for quite some time. I am evaluating it on its own merit and business which is positive. However, with UCO at 60 and IFCI at 53, I would prefer UCO bank which is surely having upward trend. Be a buyer at 43.50 or below for the time being. If it remains above 50, better go for UCO Bank, Spicejet or even Balaji Telfilm
Krishna
2 Feb 10 at 1:26 PM
Hi,
Out of NTPC and REC FPO which one do you recommend for long term investment( for 5 years ). I already have 400 Shares of NTPC @ 180 Rs/-. and 65 shares of REC @ Rs 105/-. I can Invest in both as well.
Regards
Anand Siva
Sydney
02-Feb-2009
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 02, 2010
What is REC? Write full name. Symbols not necessary
ANAND SIVA
2 Feb 10 at 12:29 PM
ABAN OFFSHORE
Dear Kalidasji
Please can you share your thoughts on Aban Offshore. Average cost : Rs 1325
Qty: 150
Purchase date : Aug 2009
CMP: 1201
Link : http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=523204
Should I buy more ? What could be long tem view for 3-6 months or 1 year
SUCHITRA
MUMBAI , INDIA
02.02.2010
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Kindly do not reproduce numbers here. Link is enough. I will reply tomorrow because this stock is not on my watch list.
SUCHITRA NAIK
2 Feb 10 at 11:09 AM
Sir,
In your stock observatory series, you suggested last Friday to reduce UCO while yesterday (Monday) you suggested to buy UCO. It is not possible for me to churn my portfolio on a very frequent basis because I have a day job which keeps me very busy.
My humble request to you is to stop the daily updates in stock observatory series. Please suggest good stocks for a holding period of one year or more and then update your views only once in a quarter after looking at the quarterly results.
I know a lot of people like the daily updates but I am sure if this is continued, people will soon ask for hourly and then minute-by-minute updates.
I request sir to discontinue this. This will reduce the burden on you too.
Thanks very much for all your efforts.
Pawan,
Delhi,India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Who is asking you to trade if you are a long term investor? further,UCO was already shown to be long term buy long time back (when it was 41) with target of around 250. At that time, there was no talk of bank mergers.
Again, its final result was out which is in line with our original projections. I am now taking a view that even if the merger is announced, UCO may remain intact.
You do not have to read “stock observatory” if you do not want to trade. Even in observatory, I pick up only high quality stock. If you are a long term investor, just stay with it. This column is meant for traders and more like updates. I have to cater all kind of investors. There is no confusion at all. My calls are very specific and to the point, without leaving anyone in doubts.
All good stocks are mentioned in Stockwatch column for long term point of view. However, when the policy related to specific sector changes, I have to make a comment. Stay with your long term objective – it will work well.
Pawan
2 Feb 10 at 2:38 AM
Dear Sir:
On your advice and alert i sold my Metals stocks in TSX-LUN and also COAL Stocks TSX-SGQ, which later fell more than 10-15% and currently i am holding around 50K Canadian Dollars, it is lying in my Canadian Stock Brokerage company Canaccord; As i am planning to reinvest 50% of the money into the same stocks, once the market corrections comes (whenever it comes),
So, while i wait for this time to invest in stocks to come again, Can you please advice if i convert 50-75% of this amount into Australian Dollars and hold them in the account? Because i have HSBC account in UK but GBP is not great and interest rates here are near to nothing;
Can you please advice what is the best method to make use of this idle money; I do not want this money for next 1year and my next investment would be into Zero Coupon Bonds, again when time comes;
You advice on this is highly appreciated;
Regards,
Sreeram, London, UK
1530hours – 01-02-2010
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Canada and Australia are both commodity based countries. Both have similar currency policy, not to weaken it deliberately. Of late, I have taken a view that the commodity prices will be on decline for relatively longer period that may hurt these currencies. Despite problems, I have begun to like Sterling Pounds as dollar alternative. Can$ or Au$ can never be alternative.
Stay with Can$ for the time being. or split half half between Can and Au$ if you do not like GBP.
Sreeram, UK
1 Feb 10 at 11:41 PM
Sir,
I have still not sold my Motorola shares, as prices are dropping daily. You also mentioned to wait before buying FNM and Freddie Mac. Please advise if I should still wait and hold onto Motorola or should I dispose it now and shift to any other share or Gold/Silver?
Awaiting your advise,
Nisha, Hong Kong
01/02/1010
Nisha
1 Feb 10 at 10:47 PM
Sir,
I am having 800 shares of Dish TV purchased at Rs. 48. CMP is Rs. 42.80. Shall I buy more or book my loss. I am ready hold for 3 to 4 months.
-Vinod Kattimani, Bangalore, India
Feb 01, 2010, 7:37PM
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 01, 2010
Of late I find that the readers are asking for day to day advice which is not possible. In stock market, difference in price of 10% to 15% is easy especially for low value stocks < Rs 80. further, you better read Stock Observatory which contain day to day comments.
Same question was asked by your friend Venkat to whom I already replied. I repeat that reply – this is last time – your price difference is not significant. Unless the stocks goes back to Rs 36 or below, it is not worthwhile for you to buy more. I do not think that stage may come. If you are going to hold the stock for 3 to 4 months, watch for its last Quarter result that may come in mid April. Post April future of this stock will be very rosy. This price will look pittance after 2 years.
Vinod Kattimani
1 Feb 10 at 10:07 PM
sir,
Ihave 2500 dish tv buying rate 46.50 whatcan i do hold or sell,advice me. new buying of dish tv at current leval
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 01, 2010
Marked for deletion for not appending signature as required. Also send the post with due capitalization of letters. This post will be deleted on 4/2
amit gupta
1 Feb 10 at 7:46 PM
Hello Sir,
All your prediciton is comming mostly right. Just on general query from my side.
If no major damage is seen before 9th February, then what do you think is the right time to enter in market ?
Sir i am looking to buy MIC Electronics till budget is released sir what could be the right price to enter in it as per present market senario?
Please suggest.
BR,
Guleria,Delhi, India
01-02-2010, 4:43PM
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 01, 2010
Spell check your message and capitalize the words properly before you post. There are number of mistakes. Do not attempt such lousy posts. I hate it.
(1) Budget has nothing to do with the international market. There is no relationship. So there need not be any strategy to enter the market.
(2) MIC Electronics has nothing to do with the budget.
Guleria
1 Feb 10 at 7:19 PM
sir,
thanks for advise us.
sir I sold 200 icici bank at 930 before 2 month, 50 hdfc bank at 1700. sir what can i do, can i purchases some quantity or not?
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 01, 2010
Marked for deletion for not appending signature as required. Also send the post with due capitalization of letters. This post will be deleted on 4/2
amit gupta
1 Feb 10 at 5:35 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
Can you give some information on which MF to buy in ELSS catagory? I will have to buy Tax saver MFs’ worth 80,000 by the end of this month.
Plz guide me through what and when to buy according to your analysis.
Awaiting your reply.
Hardik, Bangalore
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 01, 2010
I do not cover Mutual Funds
Hardik
1 Feb 10 at 4:42 PM
Dear Selarka ji,
Is it true that Platinum is replacing Silver for indistrial use? Should one buy Platinum instead of silver?
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 01, 2010
What kind of question is it? Silver is trading at $16 per ounce and Platinum at $1600/Ounce. Use common sense
Rajesh Sharma
1 Feb 10 at 2:00 PM
Kalidasji,
I had sent you a mail on January 26th on portfolio counsel. I didn’t receive any reply yet. Just to make sure that you received the mail, I am posting this query here. For some reason if it is moved to junk folders, I will send it again.
Kishore, CA, USA
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 01, 2010
Sorry, I skipped it by error. Received it but it contains only 30-40 names. Are these the stocks you want to buy so that I could study them. I need to know investment budget. I will offer my selection too. I will cut down to 15 names, including your list. More will be added only in correction. Send me email again – do not post here
Kishore
1 Feb 10 at 11:31 AM
Dear Sir,
There are speculative reports that the Govt would deregulate the oil prices. Can you throw some light on what would be the impact on the chain of companies from oil refineries to oil marketing companies?. Would it be a good point to enter IOC?
regards
Raghav
Mumbai,India
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 01, 2010
Read one liner today. All SOE refiners are good buy. Since India will have lot of gas supply from Reliance’s KG Basin, the use of gas via LNG will be on rise. That will reduce the burden of costly Kerosene subsidy. Coming year (2010-11) should be very positive for State Oil Refiners whose profitability will rise at fasted pace in decades.
Raghav
1 Feb 10 at 9:54 AM
Dear Sir,
Hotel Leela has reported good Q3 result. Still the stock has not made progress, probably due to overall bad market conditions. I have 500 @ 30.00 with me after selling 300 earlier at around Rs. 40.00.
Due you suggest to sell all at CMP of 48 and better to re-enter once the worst is played out ?
Thanks,
Santosh, Bangalore, India
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 01, 2010
The market could be stronger after weak opening. Sell it >3 PM. The last quarter may be better and whole year’s profit could be better than 4 quarters combined together, for simple reason that entry for profit on buy back of FCCB may be booked near the end of the year.
Santosh
1 Feb 10 at 1:09 AM
Dear Sir,
I am in 100% cash and looking at the current scenario I am following the stocks which you regularly suggest. Below is the list of stocks I am planning to invest.
IFCI
Petronet
Sail
RCOM
RNRL
Spice jet
IOB / UCO
LICGH
Abishek Ind
ISPAT
But given the situation I cannot every day assess my portfolio and swap them regularly because of my job ,so shall I wait for some more time as you have predicted a big correction and then invest.
Because early in 2007 I used to follow you in MMB and I have liquidated my entire stock at the first instance you have told that market will go below 8000 and waited and invested at 8000 mark and made very decent money .
Thanks for that, and I now have the same situation and I have sold my entire investments including my Mutual fund with some marginal loss and waiting almost from 7 to 8 months because I cannot trade regularly like earlier So please suggest me from when I can start investing its okay even I have to wait another 6 months.
Thanks and Regards
Sree
Hyderabad
India.
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 01, 2010
Buy in this order upto 20% of your budgeted amount (in that order)
UCO Bank, Spicejet, Petronet, IFCI, LICHF
sree
31 Jan 10 at 10:33 PM
Hi Sir,
India’s private airlines(jetairways,kingfisher,spicejet) clocking increased sales with increased losses too. Globally,majority of airlines (even though air travel has increased) keep on reporting losses. Its been always an uncertain, complex business considering the depreciation,repair cost, fuel cost, COMPETETION, etc.
Regarding Spicejet, where you are exactly seeing value? Aircraft value or future profits or a merger price offer or any other rationale?
Please guide me…
Tarun,Dubai, UAE
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 31, 2010
Do not mix up apple and oranges and compare. Domestic travels are more profitable than overseas operations. For more on Spicejet, see my chopai under Stock Observatory. No change in opinion.
Most of Indian airlines lease the aircraft, do not buy it. They do not have to fear of interest and depreciation cost. Overseas airlines (including Air India) own the planes, so they have to bear those cost that make them unprofitable. Their break even point is higher.
Airplane and ocean ships are high value capital asset. In uncertain times, renting is best option.
Tarun
31 Jan 10 at 7:23 PM
Sirji,
Need your views on
Reliance Calital : 50@508 CMP@805
BSE: 500111|NSE: RELCAPITAL|ISIN: INE013A01015
Results look really bad. what are your views?
Do we have a batter stock in this sector?
I have already sold 150 after your second sell call.
Atul : 200@80 CMP@81.25
BSE: 500027|NSE: ATUL|ISIN: INE100A01010
sold 800@110 after your sell call
Thanks, Harsh Patel, Ahmedabad, India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 31, 2010
Reliance Capital: In down market, never remain with finance companies/banks or brokers’ stocks. Sell for the time being
Atul: Cheap. Buy back 78~81. More at 71 if it happens for any reason, then stay with it
Harsh Patel
31 Jan 10 at 6:11 PM
Sir,
do you have any views of pharma sector stocks? Orchid chemicals in specific. Kindly share your views, if any.
regards
Raghav
Mumbai,India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 31, 2010
Not at the moment. They are all too expensive. It is difficult sector to follow, similar to high tech.
Raghav
31 Jan 10 at 5:22 PM
Dear Sir,
I have a macro level question.
You have been correctly identifying the start of the fall this time too(as usual!) and advising investors to get out..
When do you think peoplw should go in the market again?
After budjet ? Or after another 10% fall ?
What % of one’s portfolio should one keep in equities at this point in time and why?
Thank you for all you kind advice!
Raj
Charlotte,NC
USA
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 31, 2010 at 1:10 PM HKST
My scenario has not yet played out in full. We are in the opening game. Next week is still uncertain with positive bias with negative fundamentals.
US has started playing with the numbers (GDP, Inflation) and also in process of replacing Interest rate mechanism. Next week may be broad indicator. If no major damage is seen before 9th February, people may raise the equity level from 10% at present (per my suggestion) to 25% because other investment avenue is not yielding enough. I am using India based local Fixed Deposit (not NRE) as my savior where yield is still acceptable at 7% to 8%.
Raj
31 Jan 10 at 11:03 AM
Dear Sir,
I am planning to buy 10 kg silver. I was thinking of buying 5 kg now and 5 kg in case of a correction. Also I would like to add 100 gm gold in my portfolio. What is your near term outlook for silver and gold? Should I buy immediately or wait for more price reduction?
Thanks,
v8r, Stockholm, Sweeden
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 31, 2010 at 12:21 PM HKST
You are already in correction. However, US has manipulated the GDP and standard of measuring is reportedly changed (I have yet to go through in detail the information on BEA Site in USA (Bureau of Economic Analysis). This has lent the support to dollar which has depressed the precious metal prices.
Please note that Silver has been attractive buy at this time, at the same time it used to be very volatile earlier dropping almost 20% in a day. That volatility is no longer seen now. Three major banks, one from USA, Hong Kong and Germany have extremely large short position in Silver. The short position runs into millions,even billion of ounces. Exact figures are not ascertainable because they are derivative instruments. Those banks do not disclose the break up of derivative contracts outstanding.
I suggest, you buy 5 Kg of silver now < $16.5. Watch it. If it moves higher add 1 kg for every sustainable rise of $0.80 from your purchase price. Te sustainable price is one that remain same for at least 3 days. If the silver falls below $16, add more @ 2 kg for every fall of $1.50 (the fall need not be sustainable). If you want to insure yourself, think of buying put option on silver in USA or through SAXO BANK (www.saxobank.com) which offer excellent platform for currency, commodity and some stocks. Their charges are also very reasonable ($10 per transaction). Do not try to speculate.
v8r
31 Jan 10 at 3:36 AM
Sir,
How would you rate the future growth of PSU Banks in India in the backdrop of proposed mergers being talked about for long:
1. will the consolidation (of these banks into 4 or 5 larger ones) brings in any significant spurt in business oppurtunities, lessen the operation costs, growth in profits, reduction of NPAs etc.
2. Or do you feel, Govt. Banks are like Govt. only — completely mis-managed!
With lack of high talent and committed work force, these large juggernaut banks may not get along well and fall under their own weight and collapse.
Please give your opinion/view.
Thanks
Kumar.M
Hyderabad, India
30.01.2010
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, January 31, 2010 at 2:29 AM HKST
Kumar M
30 Jan 10 at 11:59 PM
Dear Sir
By reading your regular posts and articles on Gold and based on my own assessment, initially, I purchased some phisical Gold and Gold ETFs.
Later I came to know about MCX Futures in Gold.
All we are well aware that you never advise / suggest / comment about futures. But out of my greediness to make some quick bucks I bought 5 lots of Gold Mini (each lot 100 Gms.) with MCX for February 5th, 2010 expiry contract. My average purchase price is Rs 1,782 / gram. and today’s Closing prices is Rs 1,618/-.
Being this is my first exposure to future contract, I realised that how danger this is to small investors like me. And I decided not venuture in future with this type of transactions. To come out of this, now I have the following options, by optimistic thinking that Gold can recover from its current fall.
01. To square up all the transactions before 5th Feb 2010 and to book loss.
02. To square up Feb 2010, contracts and to take exposure for the same quantity – either for March or April 2010 Mini Contracts. The rate difference is Rs 115/gm for March and Rs 165 / gm for April contracts.
03. Alternatively I can take Gold Big contract (for 1000g gms) for a long period i.e. either for June or August 2010 contract, by selling Feb’10 – Contracts, to average my purchase price. The prevailing rates for the same is Rs 16,385 & 16,435/-.
Please suggest by considering recent developments in Gold rate fluctuations, which course of action shall minimise my loss.
Thanks & Regards
Vijaya Kumar G, Bangalore, India - 15.00 IST
Vijaya Kumar G
30 Jan 10 at 5:38 PM
Dear Sir,
I am holding 1000 NAGARJUNA FERTLISERS AND CHEMICALS bought at 27.50 rs on 30/10/2009..
Would you please express your view on this company future growth and stock price appreciation from my buy price..
Thanks,
Ramesh,
Nellore,
India,
30th Jan 2010.
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 30, 2010 at 2:05 PM HKST
Hold it until budget and see the fertilizer policy,although I do not expect much change due to price sensitivity.
Further, I have not followed this stock. I understand it used to be take over play before by a prominent group due to vital property assets. Again, I do not know this stock, so do not take my opinion seriously.
Ramesh
30 Jan 10 at 1:44 PM