Confused Mind, Clear Answers (09-12)
Ref: 09-12 (Dec 2009) of 29 Nov, 2009
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This column is exclusively devoted to the questions from the readers relating to their investments or other guidance. THIS IS NOT DISCUSSION FORUM. Avoid too general questions. Your cooperation will be highly appreciated.
Anil Selarka (Kalidas),
Hong Kong. 29 Nov, 2009
Link to this page
sir,
which shares are better for long term.I can invest 1 lac.(100000) please give your advice sir.
thank you sir,
udai shankar.
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 25, 2010
Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably.
I have already replied you earlier. Check it out.
udaishankar.m
24 Feb 10 at 7:40 PM
Kindly start new series of the new year 2010 !
Regards,
Mohan ,Mumbai , India
Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
It is already started. In fact, some people have started using it. Kindly see the sidebar and select from the drop down list. The main page is just a header and may not disclose anything.
Mohan
1 Jan 10 at 3:37 AM
Dear Sir,
WISH YOU AND YOUR FAMILY A VERY VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR 2010.
Best regards,
NandakumarAS
Switzerland
Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.
Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.
Nandakumar
31 Dec 09 at 3:23 PM
Dear Sir,
Wish you and your family a happy,healthy and properous new year
Joy.Joseph
Madurai,Tamilnadu
Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.
Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.
Joy.Joseph
31 Dec 09 at 5:41 AM
WISH YOU AND ALL YOUR FAMILY MEMBERS A VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR.
SATHYA
CHENNAI
Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.
Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.
sathya
31 Dec 09 at 2:46 AM
Dear Shri Selarka,
Wishing you, your family and all readers of this forum, a happy, blessed and profitable new year.
Vineet
Delhi, India
Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.
Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.
Vineet
31 Dec 09 at 1:44 AM
The link below is fuel to my earlier remarks about the Camel and Zebra’s. This is also when the Chinese are saying the they will support the USD as the reserve currency. In such a scenario what will prevent the US from doing what it likes and be a Master of all. Jai ho US.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a48c8UpUMxKQ
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 02, 2010
Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably.
Not surprising. They have $ 800 Mlns involved. They have no choices. This is why China is buying mines all over the world with USD so that it does not displease US
History is full of records that masters become slaves one time. India was the country of investment before British Raj. Lost all glory later. Even Columbus wanted to discover India and went to US instead.
Xavier
31 Dec 09 at 1:31 AM
Hello Sir,
I am new to your blog & find it realy conceptual.
Just an general query when will you complete the article Falling from the Cliff – US and Global Markets .
Best regards,
Guleria, Delhi
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 02, 2010
It is updated today
Guleria
31 Dec 09 at 12:28 AM
Sharing a yahoo.fin article about Tata group as I’ve seen that topic discussed here.
Aritcle:Tata leads wealth creation in 2009
Tata motors moved up by over 400%.
Low 128, High 796.70
TCS appreciated by 215%
“Thirty-one companies from the salt-to software conglomerate saw their combined market capitalisation soar by more than Rs 2 lakh crore, or by over 150%, in 2009″
Regards,
Aby
Bangalore
Aby
31 Dec 09 at 12:27 AM
Dear Sir,
I wish you and your family a warm,healthy,wealthy and happy new year.
Regards
Seshavataram, Ankleshwar
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, January 02, 2010
Thanks for your wishes. I also wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010 in terms of Health, Wealth and family peace.
Also convey my best wishes to your parents and blessings to your children.
seshavataram
31 Dec 09 at 12:21 AM
Sir,
pl. refer the following link which is in line of your findings that US is not having gold in their treasury
Fake GOLD bars in FORT Knox !!
http://www.viewzone.com/fakegold.html
Regards
Pratik , Baroda , india
Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
It is old article, but I do not believe that Fort Knox is having Fake gold bars. My statement is that US does have physical gold but not its ownership. It is a warehousekeeper
Pratik
31 Dec 09 at 12:04 AM
Dear Sir,
I have not invested in satyam till date. Shall I buy it near 100(cmp) as it has been consolidating there for long time. Actually I am looking for short term gain in potential rally ahead.
If it doesn’t work, then I would average it near 70-80.
Shall I?
Kanhaiya, Lucknow
Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
The stock is in consolidation mode. Buy it now. When it rises above 105.35, it may gain 10%. Even on long term basis, it is goint to be winner. 3Q will be important. It may report some loss or less than expected profit due to lawsuit settlement, although it is discounted in lower price. My target is still 160/210 in normal/overshoot. Downside is at the most to 92 level, but I doubt whether the stock will travel to that level.
kanhaiya
30 Dec 09 at 10:24 PM
Dear Sir,
You had indicated that the trend in gold would come out after 28/12. Now that we see that the trend has remained downward so far, how do you read this?
I have bought 85gms (rather units in ETF) at a average price of 1671.
My asset spread at the moment is like : 48% Equity, 9% Gold, 7% MFs, 24% in fixed instruments, rest in liquid cash.
what do you suggest – buy more gold now or wait for more correction?
regards
Raghav
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 30, 2009
My article on gold is very clear. You are trying to time the movement as if the market follows Rolex watch movements. We are in holiday season and many fund managers, even business channels anchors are on leave. The market is very thin. Any movement during this time is not indicative of trend. Gold is an item where one has to take the position if he believes that there is really worse kind of economic troubles ahead. If you just believe that Dow is going up, dollar is going up for no reasons, then stay away from gold. 3% to 5% movement is just normal. Should you buy the gold in correction? Well, the gold has already corrected. How much correction do you want – it is not waste paper like US dollar which is jacked up in paper trades.
It is true not only for gold but also for other stocks. Sometime ago, I have suggested Essar Shipping and the stock just consolidated for a few days thereafter. Today, it shot up 12% in spite of market being down.
If you try to time your purchases with strict levels, you will fail in every thing, whether stocks or gold or silver. Also look at Reliance Power – the news came that its first power station has come on stream, so the stock advanced after being under pressure for over 3 months due to Supreme Court delay in deciding the Ambani brother case.
Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably.
Raghav
30 Dec 09 at 8:44 AM
Dear Sir:
Referring to your earlier comment regarding downward movement of dollar index( 2-6%) from 28/12 onwards – 31/12 and thus corresponding increase in gold prices due to covering of shorts before expiry. However we find that the Gold prices have declined from recent 1135 $/ ounce to 1090 $/ounce during this period.
You had also mentioned in your earlier post that now focus is on depressing gold prices , my query therefore is :
Is it possible that gold could fall upto $ 1000 or more in the short term?
I had purchased some gold at 1120 $ and I wish to purchase some more? therefore seek your advice.
Regards,
Gaurav
Mumbai
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Gold contract expired on or about 24/12 whereas Dollar index contract expires tomorrow or 31/12 with last trading day on 28/12. These contracts are subject to physical delivery of the currencies in question.
Based on this scenario I have mentioned that the dollar may fall after 31/12 and gold may rise as consequence. Many funds have allocated some portion of new year’s investment for gold, so the gold price may tend to rise.
This is not exact science. It is approximation. Had it been exact science, many will become millionaire in few days. There are also many other economic, social and political factors which may come into play if any event happen in respective sphere.
This is why I do not advise you to trade on day to day basis. Take a position based on fundamentals. If you are not convinced and still believe in dollar in spite of host of economic troubles, stay away from gold.
Gaurav
30 Dec 09 at 8:03 AM
Sir,
You are recommanding gas related stocks like GSPL , Petronet LNG and related stocks. Kindly provide your views about Gujarat Gas.(BSE 523477)
Regards
Pratik , Baroda, India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 30, 2009
I have not followed it. When I feel that certain stocks are more valuable than others, only those stocks are suggested. It is implied that stocks other than named one are not that good. or they are relatively more expensive.
If there is a day, then I say that it is a day. It automatically implies that it is not night.
Pratik
30 Dec 09 at 6:39 AM
sir,
My query is regarding Northgate Technologies Ltd.
CMP 28 Rs. (traded in BSE and NSE)
It was quoting Rs. 700 in 2007 but now it is only Rs. 28. I want to invest in this company. Do you think it can again touch its previous glory?
regard
Dinesh
Raipur India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 30, 2009
I do not follow technology or high tech stocks. I have no opinion therefore.
dinesh
30 Dec 09 at 3:40 AM
Hello Sir,
Could you guide me on the Iraqi Dinar as a long term bet considering the recent awarding of oil fields for developments and the upcoming March elections in Iraq? As per the projections, if these oil fields are up, within 8 Years Iraq’s daily production capacity will be around 12million bpd which is bit higher than Saudi the largest producer. Ofcourse, Iraq is saying they will produce per guidance of Opec.
Tarun,Dubai,UAE
30-12-2009
‘Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 30, 2009
It makes sense, but we do not know how US will leave the country behind. Americans are not known to leave a good political or legal system behind – they leave brothels, prostitution and other vices behind. Look at where they were before – Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines, Japan, Korea etc etc.
British always left a perfect system behind – political, legal and educational. This is why Gandhi respected British a lot. He did not heed advice of Subhash Chandra Bose to attack British by siding with Japan or Germany. He knew that British were lesser evil than American/Japanese/German devils.
Look at the India itself – nearly 70% of present laws are still in basic framework of British raj. They left perfect legacy in Hong Kong, Africa, Asia, Singapore, Malaysia etc. They built roads, bridges, water plants, railways etc. Even the toy trains in Simla, Darjeeling, Ooty etc are all legacy of British Raj and administration. Even IAS imitates ICS of British Raj.
We do not yet know what is the real potential of Iraq Oil. Such large find was main reason for Bush to invade Iraq which was far more liberal Islamic state than anyone elseI
It is still too early to make a guess.
Tarun
30 Dec 09 at 12:32 AM
Dear Anilji,
For last 3 weeks both Dollar Index & Gold/Silver prices are very volatile. Some times Dollar Index & Gold/Silver prices moves in opposite direction whereas sometimes it looks like there is no co relation.
In last of your few replies you are mentioning about possibility of rise in interest rate in US in near term. What will be the effect of all these on Gold/Silver prices?
Also do you see correction in Indian Stock market in terms of duration as long lasting (few years) one or it will be a (few months) short one?
I am also eagerly waiting for your next article which may cover all my above queries & current situation in more detailed.
Regards.
Parag
Surat
Kalidas Says ….Friday, January 01, 2010
We are in the total state of confusion. The diametrically opposite behavior of Gold or Silver is due to presumed state intervention (which we can not prove).
There is lot of pressure on US administration not to raise interest rates. FED recently raised interest rate unofficially by introducing the concept of Term Deposits, which I have not heard of in decades. The Fed already has 2,5,10 and 30 years notes /bonds which are better than even normal Term Deposits. It is indirect way to raise the interest rates.
My article on Gold/Silver is very clear. The people are buying gold/silver not out of inflation hedge but for safety. Yes, short term margin oriented investors might be forced to liquidate their position due to higher cost of borrowings, but the rates have not risen to the extent to make their trades profitable. Unless, the interest rates rise to 3% or above, the effect on such investors may be minimal.
In short term, the efforts are directed to weaken the Sterling Pound (which indirectly strengthens the dollar) that may cause gold/silver prices to soften. We will know more about the trend in two weeks. At the moment, the short term trend is mixed to down. $ 1085 will be critical level for gold. The silver is relatively stronger than gold at the moment. There are no change in gold.silver fundamentals – but those fundamentals hold good for medium to long term investors, not for traders. As trader, one has to follow short term trend on which I do not advise. This blog is meant for those who do not wish to trade day in day out.
When the markets correct, Indian market too may correct, but the effect will be less pronounced. If the markets overseas collapse, the Indian markets too would collapse. At the moment, the markets will be very choppy, directionless, and for active traders. Not so suitable for long term investors.
Parag, Surat
29 Dec 09 at 8:07 PM
Dear Sir,
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/Morgan-Stanley-sued-over-failed-12-bn-CDO/articleshow/5393345.cms
Here is the interesting link which in many ways repeat your view. Interesting is that Morgan Stanely also shorted on junk bonds and made money.
Does this mean that all the major banks may be safe but other investmenet funds are in difficult situation.
Regards
Vijay, Bangalore
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, December 31, 2009
The news confirms that rating agencies are being used or abused by US to manage its game. Please note that entire US administration, top banks, top brokers, top insurers and both rating agencies are acting in synch.
Vijay
29 Dec 09 at 3:27 PM
Dear Sir,
As you mentioned in your earlier replies if there is a deep correction in third week of Januaru, do you suggest you sell 50 to 70% of current holdings and stay with cash? If so, could you please tell us right time to sell?
Also, in your other replies it is mentioned that first two weeks would be bullish in US market. Will that give same positive bullish market in Indian market too?
Thanks
SujathaRamesh
Chennai, India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 30, 2009
The governments the world over have been printing money with such ferocity that we do not know when the market will correct.
Yes, I do expect that the markets will begin to correct from 3rd week of January. The interest rates are convulsing to rise and have risen by 0.30% at least during December. Not significant by any standard. The FED has just now tried to raise the interest rates in the form of Term Deposits and yet show to the world that the interest rates will remain low.
The people’s anger is beginning to manifest. The town hall meetings are again becoming hostile to the Senators and Congressmen.
If the US markets correct, all markets respond, including India.
Should you sell more in first two weeks? Yes of course. The time has come to sell another 40% during next 2 weeks. It is possible that Indian market may rise to 18200 latest17800 to 18200 will be the good time to sell, at profit or loss, depending on your buying cost. Keep equity investments only to 20% or even less, and remain only in large cap stocks, that is Index stocks.
If the bad market signs start emerging earlier, do not wait any longer. Just watch for either bad signal or higher index to sell and reduce your investments to less than 20% from peak period. If you are in money, just sell and stay with smaller portion of even desirable stock, because in steep market correction, everything drops.
When you feel tempting to buy the stocks again, Sell all gold you have.
SujathaRamesh
29 Dec 09 at 6:04 AM
Dear Sir,
I use to read articles of one Mr. J.H.Kunstler. He had written a new article (Forecast – 2010) and the link is also provided. He seconds your voice. I have posted my comments to the author, mentioning your book etc.,
http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/12/forecast-2010.html#more
Did you released your book in US? Almost all the subjects viz., Economy of US & Europe, rest of the world including Japan and China, Dow status, emerging markets status, anticipated civil war in US, US Interest rate, US$, Euro, terrorism by Pak on India, Issues on Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, forthcoming food shortages, global warming, Crude and Gold & Silver were all hinted in the article, which all you have elaborated in the book. So, I hope, there is some one leading yours words there. It is a victory for your repeated warnings and through knowledge of the financial system.
A small poem on the way suits Present status of US & Obama
As I was sitting in my chair,
I knew the bottom wasn’t there,
Nor legs nor back, but I just sat,
Ignoring little things like that.
’Hughes Mearns’
Respected Sir, I have some quarries.
You have mentioned in one of your reply that, BSE may reach up to 18200 for a short period by the influence of global markets. If so, whether Gold / silver will find resistance or go down till that time?
Even after deep correction (up to US$ 1070/Oz) Gold is facing resistance at US $ 1110. My physical buying by the past one year period in INR at India stands at an average buy price of INR 1648 /Gram of 999.5, and current rate is INR 1740/ Gram of 999.5 at my place. Can I invest in gold /silver (Say at the max of 150 Grams Gold or equivalent silver) at this stage or wait for few more days to average at further lower level. I agree that, compared with long term target of $2000/Oz and above today’s rate is low only, but I wish to invest at the lowest possible as this is the final part of the allocation of my funds for Gold / Silver for the time being. Kindly suggest.
I, with my family wish our beloved Sir and your family a Happy, Prosperous NEW YEAR 2010. Our hearty, New year wishes to all the fans & followers of Sir.
Manivannan K
Cuddalore, Tamilnadu-India.
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Kindly do not mix up your queries with other discussion. Separate your comments subject wise. It will be easy to answer and keep the QA short.
I read the article you have quoted. It is of course terrifying and upholding my off repeated warning signs months or years ago. I only wish that I am proved wrong and the expected worse does not become a reality. We have seen enough of violence during 2009 when hundreds of innocent lives have been lost. We do not want any more.
Reg: GOLD
Gold will simply rise to the unbelievable height. I do not know on what basis the Author still believe that dollar will rise. No one owns paper currency in the times of civil unrest. When that thing happens, the Internet will be the first casualty. The electronic banking or money will be almost deal. The only money that will remain alive is the physical currency having no value or Gold. They have to rise. If these metals can not rise during extreme civil unrest, they can never rise in future.
Many experts still go on highlighting that Gold is non- interest bearing asset and as such not acceptable. I would tell them “for that matter almost all metals, from steel, copper, aluminum, nickel, silver, tin etc are all non interest bearing. Still the people buy them in tons”. Except paper currency or assets, all real physical assets are non interest bearing.
MANIVANNAN K
28 Dec 09 at 7:51 PM
Dear Kalidas Ji,
With your permission, I would like to share an interesting article on Gold price manipulation that I came across at the link below:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bankers-and-economists-say-gold-bubble-here%E2%80%99s-why-you-should-ignore-them
Interesting takeaway from the article:
According to data recently released by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a division of the US Treasury, of the $135 billion of gold derivatives contracts (including futures and options) controlled by financial institutions, JP Morgan controls $96 billion (71.11%) of these contracts and HSBC Bank USA controls $34.4 billion (25.48%) of these contracts. In other words, just two players control almost all gold derivatives contracts in the entire United States.”
Regards,
Vivek Bhandari
Dubai, U.A.E.
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Interesting. I know about Zero Hedge.com. I am also a member. My own comments appeared there.
What they have not mentioned is the price at which the contracts have been booked. To my knowledge, at one time, JP Morgan Chase Bank was valuing its short position of 1000 tons of gold @ US$ 42.22 per ounce, same rate as used by US treasury and Fed in valuing its 8134 tons of gold. That means that JPMC short position was initiated at the instance of Fed/Treasury.
Hong Kong bank is also rumored to be the largest short seller of Silver, in addition to the gold mentioned by you. The Fed/Treasury are not marking their balance sheets to the market under MTM rule (Mark to Market). At current prices of gold, the short position may appear to be just 3700tons, but if the contracts were executed at $ 42.22 only, their short position will be 85000 tons or about last 30 years gold production. This could be the reason for consistently lower gold prices since 1984- about 25 years ago when gold hit $ 800 or so.
This has been single most reason for me to place JPMC in the acute distressed bank list. in international banking, running 24 hours a day, there is movement of hundreds of billions of dollars at the flick of a second. No one knows the real balance sheet of any bank today. This is why Lehman Brothers UK transferred almost 8 billion dollars to USA hours before declaring bankruptcy in London.
Today, the banks and governments are so much intertwined that no one knows what is going on and how long such “bhakti” will carry on.
It again proves that I was right on spot in my various assessments in my book. I am not boasting, but can tell you that there is no other book in the world that comes close to my analysis and solutions offered. This is my lifetime work, and I am proud of having my life lived worthwhile.
Vivek Bhandari
28 Dec 09 at 8:56 AM
Dear Sir,
As you predict world will come to know the true picture of economic scenario of US and dump the dollar and Gold will shoot like anything. There will be sever pressure on US and it may lead to civil war , etc…
If the situation goes worst, do you feel that US may use its defense force to maintain its supremacy and a third world war like scenario is not ruled out. US may force its critics to follow its dictates or face the war.
As the history tells, US will play all its game to tame the world to follow its line.
Thanks,
-Santosh
Bangalore, India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, December 29, 2009
The world is still hostage to US. It can still call the shots. When China and Japan stops the purchase of dollar, then only the dollar will have major drop – not otherwise. It is also not in their interest to let the dollar value fall. They are in fix now.
The risk of civil war is there but not in immediate future. Please understand that Americans have one very positive feature – they are strong nationalist. The American people will not be willing participant unless something serious happens.
Past days were different when US was a rich and economically powerful country. Now it is not. It will be difficult for it to engage into third war front after severely crippled in Iraq and Afghanistan. The chances of World War will be known only after it demonetizes the euro dollar. At the moment, those chances are slim, because no one knows the true nature except this author.
US has never initiated any World War. In fact, it saved the world from the clutches of Hitler, Japan and Communists. They did great favor during World War II. We would not have been here economically had it not been due to USA. True that they fought war in Vietnam, Iraq, Middle East and Afghanistan. But some war was forced upon them like Afghanistan on account of 911.
Santosh
28 Dec 09 at 3:30 AM
Dear Sir,
Of late, the metals like Aluminum and Copper prices are increasing. Do you think it is good to take position in Hindalco.
I remember that you have suggested this company in reply to other boarders questions.
Regards
Vijay, Bangalore
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, December 29, 2009
It is near my sale level now. I would rather sell it. I will reassess after examining its capital raising ability, though higher prices may benefit it. The interest rates are showing signs of going up which will hurt it very badly overseas – unless it is able to raise about $ 2 billions at least at lower rates.
Vijay
28 Dec 09 at 1:26 AM
Dear Sir,
As you predict that their will be a very big correction, can we kindly request you to release portfolio for one million and above.
So that we can start following them.
Thanks and Regards
Harish
Hyderabad
India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, December 29, 2009
It will released soon.
Harish
28 Dec 09 at 12:50 AM
Dear Sir,
In reply to Mr. Pawan on 17th of December, you have mentioned to wait till 21st January to get the good stack at fair price.
Do you think that major correction in the market would be over by that time or do you see that due to the financial results were out that time hence we know the clear position of the banks/brokers so that it is bit risk free to take position.
Also, sir if more resources are by USA to reduce the Gold price, then do you see that major rise in the oil prices which in turn affect the companies like HPCL,BPCL.
I apologies for the spelling mistakes, if any, since i am on travel and posting this messeage using my mobil phone.
Wish you Merry Christmas and Happy New Year,2010.
Regards,
Vijay,Bangalore
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 27, 2009
No. the correction this time will be felt more severe than ever. Many have been sucked into this rally with lot of their additional savings.
The correction this time is going to ruin many wealthy investors too. This correction may result in higher interest rates that will force down the world property markets in Hong Kong,Singapore and even India (to lesser extent) to greater extent than before.
Please note that the money,this time, will be destroyed over and above the destruction last time. Second blow is usually much harsher. Third will be fatal.
We are going to be in uncharted territory from January 2010 onwards. Oil price may not rise that much – Gold price will.
HPCL and BPCL may be relatively less affected. May be market correction will also bring down some price correction on these counters, but they are anyway cheap, can not go drastically cheaper. Oil prices may not move north due to real recession taking hold on physical demand.
Oil and Gas stocks will be safer sector. India does not have gold producer. Some sideline producers of copper and aluminum produce gold and silver as small byproduct.
Vijay
26 Dec 09 at 5:36 AM
Submitted on 2009/12/25 at 6:37pm
Kalidas ji,
Please do not take my comments as a blasphemy on you or your views. I remain indebted from the knowledge I have gained from you over the last couple of years; I have prized your MMB writings and have even saved word doc versions of the same in my emails; In fact financially also I have made substantial profit from your calls and still decide on your suggestions for major buy-sale.
Your discussion on Gold was an eye opener and it was without your posts we people would have never ever knew the details of the game. I am not blaming or scratching out old wounds or something like that! Please do not take it that way. You are very senior to me and I would not think of putting it in that way.
Sorry, in case I have hurt you unknowingly.
N. B. You can “moderate” the postings in this blog as well. In fact before writing the post I thought that its only after moderation the administration of this web site would publish this (I am writing this after quite a long time). But it can on the blog directly. I would suggest that you may put some selective moderation/filtering (either automated/manual) before letting others post their views.
Just a kind of suggestion
King Porus.
London, UK
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 27, 2009
Let us bury whatever exchange we had. let us look to the future. You have been my follower for long, so I can not afford to ignore you.
You are entitled to all views. On this blog, we do not moderate except for spelling mistake or some funny language. We want our readers to blow their minds out. I also learn a few things from them.
You have not hurt my feelings anyway. I just asked you to be fair and balanced in quoting – that’s all.
King Porus
25 Dec 09 at 6:37 PM
Dear Anil ji,
Wishing you and all your loved ones Seasons Greetings .
And a very Happy Healthy and Prosperous New Year ahead.
A heartfelt thank you for your unbiased guidance and mentoring.
God Bless
pp
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 27, 2009 Thanks and I also wish you and your family Merry Christmas and Happy New Year -2010
Prithipal S Bajaj
24 Dec 09 at 11:50 PM
Hello ,
I own 500 stocks of citibank bought at 2$ and 200 stocks of Bank of america bought at 3.50$. Can i hold them for long term or should i sell them now and pay short term gain in this year ?
-Nathan
San jose,CA
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 27, 2009
BOA – Sell 100 at CMP. You will recover 95% of your capital.
Sell balance 100 if the market worsens regardless of price at that time.
CITI – hold it for a while. It is bankrupt but until US administration holds its stock, stay with it. When they get out, sell 50% retaining balance floating profit. You will never lose in that case.
Nathan
24 Dec 09 at 6:52 PM
Sir,
Indian stock market is menacingly poised to hit another 12 months high. Do you think a blow up move might happen and indices can stretch upwards even by 8-10% from these levels. If you feel so, can this situation be used to profit in some select counters in a very short term.
Or do you feel we are more closer to the cliff and 5200 on the nifty is the peak for sometime to come.
Thanks
NSri, Pune
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 27, 2009
The market is still in intermediary range. I do not know Nifty but BSE may hit 17800 to 18200 in short term for very short period on the back of global market. That could be the final market high under present circumstances.
NSri
24 Dec 09 at 12:24 PM
Sir,
Regarding your stock select column on Petronet, you say that for a trade one may buy at 78 but as an investment, one should wait for 48-58 levels. Looking at the long term target of 200 or more, does it really matter of one buys at CMP of around 70 or 10-20 rupees lower? Also, you say that the ST target itself is 100+. So do you expect a 50% correction after that to see the stock at 48?
Thanks,
Pawan,
Delhi, India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 27, 2009
Agreed that even at 78, Petronet is a good buy, even at 120 on long term basis. However, every investor wants to buy the stock as cheap as possible. Under the present scenario, lower target may be possible if the market corrects heavily. It may or may not happen for few months.
This is why some stocks are better bought when they are in consolidation range. The Petronet has been consolidating around current level for long which gives immediate short term target of 140 if no damage is done to the market. Its expansion is complete (except Kochi) which will raise its revenue 100%
The stock always overshoots or undershoots in extreme volatility. The stock at 70 is still in mid-range. I normally buy at 61 or 81 (after 81, the stock gallops if it stays above this number for about 3 to 7 days.
Once the stock sees the high of 100 to 120, this stock may not even come to Rs 70 that easily. This is not a small company. Unless there is fast and furious meltdown, the stock may not see the level of 48.
Pawan
24 Dec 09 at 9:43 AM
With kind due permission of Kalidas Sir,
For KingPoru & shiva,
Sir has already replied on this blog on June 08, 2009 for his IFCI article on MMB .
The reply was - ” This is pre-takeover article before financial crisis. It no longer holds.
When the weather changes, we have to change our clothings and equipments.
Yes, IFCI is still valuable stock, but not to that extent. That CEO Atul Rai destroyed everything. Such lousy CEO should be asked to take pre-retirement leave. Even if he is IAS, so what. He should add one more “S” to make it read “IASS”. ”
- Ramesh, Mumbai, India
Ramesh
24 Dec 09 at 5:35 AM
With Sir’s due permission
For KingPorus.
I have similar opinion as Vivek’s. If ‘GoldMan buys IFCI ‘ is more stressed than it reaching the price of 700. You might have remembered in the same comment sir had said ‘GoldMan is Goldman’. Unquestionably the most powerful company on the Globe even today, though it is the creator of the current crisis. World knows it better now than two years back when Sir had written that one of the finest analysis on MMB. Infact I feel Sir was far more conservative in that price. Even 7000/- Less if Gold man buys IFCI. I will bet even now on IFCI if GoldMan Buys it.
Problem with sir is he is too ahead of time.
Shiva
Bangalore
shiva
24 Dec 09 at 3:36 AM
King Porus,
I have been following Sir from past 2 years and regarding his call of IFCI at 700 odd bucks came with a BIG IF – IF Goldmas Sach gets IFCI which never happened, so IFCI never went to that level (He mentioned this very clearly in his call).
Dost, you need to understand that markets are very very dynamic. Lot of slips could be there between the cup and the lip and constantly change your strategy according to changing situation. Sir’s Gold and Silver call also have some pre-conditions like worsening of US situation and he has also given feelers on how to access it. He has also given in which case his call will not be applicable like US canceling the legitimacy of Euro Dollars etc. You need to understand all this, before you make any commitment of money. You need to invest time to read from all sources, understand the dynamics and economics of current market situations and then make an investment and take appropriate steps if situation changes. If you blindly follow someone, without even understanding his calls, you run the risk of getting ruined. Better deposit money in FDs in that case.
His call of selling before 15 Jan 2008 was great, his call of sensex reaching at 6000 level at the time when sensex was trading at 21000 was great (sensex did came to low 7000), and I am sure his current call will materialize also.
Regards,
Vivek, Gurgaon, India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 27, 2009
Thanks for your comments. King Porus is also following me for over 2 years. He is entitled to his views. may be he was hurt because of my calls which he read only one side. He used to be active participant on MMB when I was using that forum.
I have already replied to him after your recent post. I think it is adequate.
Vivek
24 Dec 09 at 2:26 AM
Dear Sir,
As we know the US dollar is currently becoming stronger with respect to the Euro and GBP. Some say it is because of the crises in Greece and possibly soon in Spain, Ireland and Portugal. It seems to me that the US dollar rally was expected given the strong sell off in the last couple of months and the crises in Europe was the trigger. Now that it has rallied quite a bit (US Dollar index is now 78+) in the last 3 weeks, when do you expect this trend to reverse. What specific factors will trigger this weakening of the dollar ?
Saumitra
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 27, 2009
Reminder: To get reply, please append City and Country name to your signature invariably.
Time. Nothing goes up or down in straight line. We are in December where many funds have to close their books. they book the profit or losses for tax and performance reasons.
Dollar index expires every quarter – this time on 12/31 but last trading day is tomorrow or 12/28 when it may correct sharply against Euro and GBP (to less extent)
Calendar is specific factor now, otherwise the fundamentals are getting worse and worse. Retails numbers will be very bad in USA, I presume though there may be pocket of strength in luxury goods.
I was talking to my daughter in California who said that the situation there was getting ugly from worse. it is a time before violence breaks out openly in USA – that will be the biggest event. Another is failure on card of AIG, Fanny Mae and Freddie Mae. Only last night, the Senate increased debt limit and cushion for Fannie/Freddie Mae by $ 400 billions when their need was to be just $ 130 billions. According to reliable reports, the Fannie/Freddie need about $ 1.3 trillions to keep them afloat.
Three factors – rise in short term interest rates (which may not happen due to continuous printing of money by Fed) which have risen by 0.25% of late, violence and bank/insurer/Freddie/Fannie Mae failure.
Saumitra
24 Dec 09 at 1:03 AM
Kalidas
Merry Christmas & a Very Happy, Healthy & Peaceful 2010 to you & Your Family .
Mohan , Mumbai , India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 27, 2009
Thanks Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and your family.
Mohan
23 Dec 09 at 11:21 PM
Kalidas ji,
I read your views since long and like your logic and analysis. But I should say that you sometimes do tend to take extremists positions on certain issues. This is my observation and quite a few times I have observed this.
I first came upon your writings on IFCI on MMB. Your predictions were it may go up to 700 + with Goldman Sachs taking up and a time frame of 3+ yrs. Nothing like that happened. I still hold the IFCI stock (though totally because of my folly); I understand that there were issues with the mgmt of IFCI and all the stuff. I am not pointing fingers or blaming you; I have made a number of small profits based on your advices and I still read your articles minutely and with respect.
But, I would like you to be more balanced while expressing your views. Like the present forecast of 6400 USD rate for gold. I understand that your approach and analysis is very mathematical but then it seems to be a rerun of the IFCI episode.
All I want to say that the world is more complex than it seems and our logics do break due to unknown factors. May be I sound like ppl close to you who sometimes advice you in being more reasonable (read this in one of your posts!).
You may not publish this in you blog!
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, December 24, 2009
I do not understand why time and again you are raising the IFCI issue with me in various forums. I have replied to you number of times on MMB itself (it is a public record) and also exchanged emails with you on various occasions. Unfortunately, you are nursing the same wound for no fault of mine.
We are talking about bullish market of pre-crash days of Jan 2008.
It may be noted that IFCI was not popular counter until this Kalidas expressed detailed analysis on MMB (Moneycontrol board of CNBC web site devoted to India – http://www.moneycontrolboard.com ) when IFCI was in thrown into play by way of selling 26% stake. Many large brokerage houses including Goldman Sachs, Barclays expressed deep interest, in fact Goldman had accumulated few % stake in this company.
I mentioned very clearly that my target of Rs 700 for IFCI (when the stock was in mid 50s)was subject to Goldman taking 26% stake. However, when the new CEO Atul Rai took over the helms and started playing mischief, I called upon everyone to bail out of IFCI. I mentioned very clearly in MMB forum that new CEO was damaging IFCI and in fact would destroy that institution.
Further, I exchanged number of interactions with you in Dec 2007, especially in last week and mentioned very clearly my views. I also gave my drastic view of the market and called upon every one to sell 75% of their entire holding before 16/1/2008. I was to proceed on leave in early January, so called upon everyone to sell before 16/1. The Indian market tanked on or about 23/1, exactly one week after my call to be out by 16/1, and dropped by over 3000 points in few days. I was away at that time.
I again gave a call in early February to sell everything – 100% – by 31st March, 2008, that is remaining 25%.
It was also my established policy NOT to give buy or sell call for specific stocks on MMB. What I was expressing on MMB was the opinion and valid reasons for opinion. I was not a tipster as many used to be.
However, you did not take my call to sell IFCI when I asked everyone to bail out of this stock due to CEO antics. You did not sell the “market sell” call before 16/1 and also 31/3. You were sticking to IFCI like a gum. If I remember correct, you had bought the IFCI in 90s and the stock did go to 120 or about. I issued my IFCI opinion as quoted by you when the stock was in mid 40s or 50s.
When I gave IFCI specific sale call opinion due to damaging effects the new CEO was causing, many IFCI loyalists bounced on me for negative opinion.
You have to realize that we are in stock market. Not physical market created by God where the Sun rises in the morning and setting in the evening at predetermined time.
Further, you never bought the stock when it came down to Rs 16. I did advise many readers of this blog to buy this stock between Rs 16 and 18. You did not, when you were down by 80% from your original purchase value. Had you read my article “Rebalancing Portfolio in depressed market” you would have bought more of IFCI in 16~18 range and made handsome profit.
It may be noted that I do not give specific buy or sell call to individual investors. Many have approached me to provide this specific service which I have politely declined. I wrote on MMB and write here on my blog the stock specific opinion with full ranges – buy and sell – and also qualifier how to manage the situation in different circumstances. I do not know what the individual investor is buying, his buy levels, his risk taking capacity etc. so I do not choose to advise him.
It is therefore unfortunate that in spite of interacting with you for more than 5 occasions, you have still chosen to refer to IFCI 700 issue time and again. What I dislike is your practice of quoting me “out of context”. If you want to quote, better quote me verbatim in full context.
With regard to my target of $ 6400 for gold, better read the article and my book Chapter 14 again and again. I never talk non sense and you will find all the reasoning for my opinion fully documented and evidenced.
Are my targets extreme? Yes, they are always. I select stocks based on long term potentials and work out the target accordingly. I gave Gold a target of $ 1200 during Asian Crisis and spoke before Progressive Group ( An Association of Indian Buisinessmen and Professionals) when the gold was below $ 300. Gold did test $ 1200 this month giving $900 or 300% appreciation in 10 years or 30% per year. I did ask all NRIs to go strong on Indian equities and especiallyPSU banking stocks such as Bank of India (Rs 10.50), Indian Overseas Bank (Rs 8.50) Syndicate Bank (Rs 10 to Rs 13) MRPL (Rs 7) SAIL (Rs 5 to 8), LICHF (Rs 61) GAIL (Rs 61) IFCI (Rs 6.60) Essar Oil (Rs 13) and even RNRL (Rs 28), ONGC (Rs 138) and see their value today – my targets at that time was what the present prices are. and some at even 50% (like LICHF target Rs 1500).
Gold was targeted $ 1200 on account of dollar hollowness even during Asian crisis time. Now, it is almost destroyed – it is not worth even as a national currency, leave alone global currency. Yes, it is stronger during last few days – but such strengths are transitory – nothing moves up or down in straight line. And yes, my article on gold does quote “qualifier” as repeated by Shiva again in reply to your post.
Even today, the politicians in Copenhagen freezing in bitter cold were talking about “Global warming”. Even President Obama was talking about “global warming” and climate change when his own White House, Washington state and entire North East America were 5 feet down in snow. Where is “warming” that turns water to ice or snow? No one asked such question during conference or briefing on this subject.
Should I delete your post? Of course, I can, but I won’t. In last 15 months of existence of this blog, no reader was ever blocked from expressing his views unless someone is very abusive in his intent. So far there were no such occasions. Your post was not in proper spirit, and it did qualify for deletion, yet it is given representation here out of courtesy. This is fully democratic forum for expression of opinions, not forum to praise or glorify me. I do not believe in personality cult nor I am nursing that ambitions.
Some posts are treated by the program as “spam” and deleted accordingly over which I have no control on that technology.
King Porus
23 Dec 09 at 4:46 PM
Hi,
Whats is your view on Ispat Industries? I have 2000 shares @35 Rs. CMP is Rs 20/-. I have been holding on to this stock for 2 years. Is there any potential for growth in this company? Can I swap it for Adhunik Metaliks Ltd?
Regards
Anand Siva
Sydney
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 27, 2009
Ispat is still losing but the losses are more due to depreciation charges. The debt level is exceedingly high. Its capital of 1220 crores + Rs 1000 crores via Preference Shares is grossly inadequate compared to its liabilities. Its interest cost of about 1159 crores against sales of 9000 crores amount to 13% of sales. Normally, it should not be over 4% at the most.
The sales has been declining of late due to softening prices.This trend may not continue for long. if the company can raise at least Rs 3600 crores by capital, it will help convert into profits.
The only positive is that the company is not having cash losses. If you ignore depreciation, the company is profitable , not to great extent.
The situation is not panicky at the moment. If the interest rates go down in India, which is not very likely, then the company will benefit a lot. Otherwise it has to raise low cost borrowings. Its current interest cost is about 14% annually which has to be brought down to 6% as soon as possible.
I would not sell this stock now – it is too late. I will buy it in correction slowly, say Rs 18 downwards. Unless there is steep correction in the market, the stock may not drop much.
My ideal entry into this stock is at Rs 11 or about in deep market correction – it happened before. I doubt it will come to that level again even in correction. At Rs 18 or about, buy 1000 more and trade with it. If for any reason it goes to Rs 14 or about, buy 2000 more and stay with it, selling new lots with every 33% rise. Have patience and remain with the stock for about 1 year more at least.
Swapping into Adhunik (Rs 108) is a suicide. I never swap low value stock into high value stock. If you want to swap, get into similar low value stocks below Rs 25. However, the steel industry will be in better shape due to higher spending on auto and infrastructure. The risk of owning Ispat now is less than what it was 2 year ago.
ANAND SIVA
23 Dec 09 at 1:01 AM
Dear Kalidasji,
1. Looking at your reply to Sreeram and reference to “Financial Engineering” with enormous (printed) money power in what situation and time frame American smart asses would be proven asses after all?
2. In March/09 Dollar index was about 89 or so and there was a equity sell off (all across all markets). OR because there was sell off dollar index moved up. Again it has started moving up. Do you think if it moves up by 5%-8% up, then again March/09 like situation would arise? That’s the time to sell rest of 20% ?
3. In this scenario, in your view what would be the best asset allocation in Equity/Gold/Debt/Cash ?? (upto 21 Jan and then after 21 Jan)
Your Book, articles and replies to others are so thoughtful, logical, and very convincing to me that I am investing in your care.
I am in risk free zone as far as equity is concerned, I am already 2% equity 12% gold. It was so stupid of me to think Gold would not come back to bellow 1000 level again.
Please guide.
Thanks, Regards,
Dongre, Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 27, 2009
1. When the interest rates start rising. Rise in short term interest rates by 2% will play havoc in the banking industry. Many banks will fall. The reason is the “maturity mismatch”. Due to easy money policy of Fed, the short term rates were brought down to near zero or less than 2% for most of the time. The banks were borrowing money from Fed at lower rates on short term basis and were giving 25 to 30 year Fixed Rate loan. Now, if short term rates rise from near zero to over 2% or 3%, the long term rates will rise to over 5% to 6%. This will make almost entire mortgage lending “unviable”. The banks will be losing in hundreds of billions on such fixed rate mortgage loans. This is the most vulnerable area at the moment, and you will begin to hear about this within next 6 to 9 months or so.
2. $ index has nothing to do with the fall in the stock market. Strong dollar had been all along a precursor for stock market rise in last 20 years – only recently there has been disconnect. Before foreigners buy bonds or stocks, they have to buy the dollar first,. However, of late, during last 2 years, the Dow/Nasdaq were rising without rise in dollar, which means that the rise in them were supported by local money, not overseas money. The Fed and Treasury were pumping money into bankrupt banks who owned some large brokerages like Merrill Lynch, and Goldman./Morgan Stanley who became banks later due to bail out, who must be buying such large sum purchases, When the jobs are lost in millions, where is the question of local Americans to find money to invest into stocks?
3. I am selective in equity. One may allocate about 20% at the most in high growth equity stocks which are large counters. One should not go into small cap or mid cap as far as possible unless the prospects of growth far outweigh the downside risk. Gold at 15% to 20% is okay and rest in Cash or Bank deposits in India or high interest yielding currencies in the world.
4. You may therefore raise the equity holding to about 20% at the most, in very select counters. Indian stocks still offer best potential.
Dongre
23 Dec 09 at 12:44 AM
What is your opinion on RNRL? What range should investors buy? What is your target on this stock in the next 1 year assuming RNRL wins court case and RNRL loses court case?
PrinceofIndia
Abu Dhabi
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 23, 2009
No one knows how low a stock is driven down. The sentiments always cause hyper rally and precipitous melt down. Losing the case by RNRL against RIL is not the end of world for RNRL. If one of your grocery shop refuses to sell you the groceries, you go to alternative seller. He is not the only seller in the world.
Once the judgment is known, the uncertainty will be over, and the stock will begin to move higher, not lower. The present low price has discounted the fact that RNRL would lose the case. RIL is still trading near high because it is presumed that it will win the case. Once this episode is over, the investors will bother to re-evaluate both companies based on facts, not fictions.
To be specific to your query, lowest target for RNRL under current scenario will be Rs 48 in knee jerk reaction to the news but will very smartly rebound to over Rs 80 or more in very short span. Even Anil Ambani may have Plan B in case he loses out to RIL. He is not stupid enough to rely only on RIL for his stream of projects. Even if he wanted to, his bankers would not have allowed that liberty.
To me personally, the present prices (Rs 64) is very attractive point of entry. There is no limit to how much the stock could go down. If the market also takes ugly turn, same target could be lowered. If the market turns bullish when the news are released, there will be massive rush for short covering which may propel the prices to Rs 120 to Rs 140 in short time.
There is a saying in the market – Buy/Sell on rumors and Reverse “same bets” on factual news.
Prince
22 Dec 09 at 9:36 AM
Dear Kalidasji:
My question my sound short term but i am just trying to understand the relation between GOLD vs Equity Market vs Dollar:
As a long time follower of you, i understand from your messages that the Equity market/stocks has to fall/ make a huge correction, Gold is set to make new highs soon and recently you mentioned in many replies that wait till 28th Dec and Dollar will fall..
My understanding is if Dollar falls, Equity will raise and Gold will raise higher.. But how come we are thinking that Equity will have a huge correction? My understanding is Equity market/stocks will only fall when Dollar will raise.. but if Dollar raises Gold will also Fall..
So, i am in confusion or lacking the knowledge to understand this relation between GOLD vs DOLLAR vs EQUITY/Stocks..
but individually i understand why GOld will go High or Equity will give correction or Dollar value will fall..
Can you please take your time to clear this confusion?
Or is this fall of Dollar (as mentioned around 28th Dec is for short term) because of expiry/settlement?
Many Thanks,
Sreeram
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 23, 2009
The old relationships have almost died down. They are no longer applicable in most cases.
Yes, there used to be direct connection between Dollar and Gold about 7 years ago, so long as the natural monetary mechanism was at work. However, after the Euro entrenched itself, almost 30% of dollar became unusable. After the deep recession now, we have almost 70% of dollar which is unusable (after the printing of over $ 1.8 trillions of dollars for various forms of bail out.) This is why the gold prices rose even with the strength in dollar.
This is why the Gold has risen from almost $ 300 to $ 1085 today or $ 1200 a month earlier or by 300% or @ 25% per year on average. Dollar has not fallen as much it should have due to derivatives where the physical delivery is replaced by differences in dollar to keep its demand high all the time. With the collapse of almost all derivatives, this equation too has changed. Dollar is still kept up in paper derivative trades engineered in USA by large banks and institutions at the behest of the US administration.What they call “Financial Engineering” in modern terms.
You are not specific about the market, so I presume, you are talking about Indian market. How do you arrive at the conclusion that if dollar goes down, the equities (presuming Indian equities) should rise and gold should rise too (you have not mentioned whether in India or overseas). There is no triangular relationship. All relationships are “relative” and not “absolute”.
If the US economy develops “real strength” in physical terms, US$ and US equities should rise (so also the global equities who are dependent on exports to USA) and dollar should fall.
At the moment, there is no real strength in US economy, so both $ and US equities have to fall miserably. They are both kept alive due to paper derivative trades, and continuous feed that worst is over, and the US economy is on the mend. So long as the myth is allowed to pervade, you may see the growth or stability in equity market the world over. Whole world even today is taking lead from US market.
US is now having a total debt of $ 13 trillions. If the rates rise by only 4%, and restored to historic normal level, it will cost now $ 520 billions per year in interest servicing cost alone. Unless the world currencies are destroyed, and $ is made the only viable currency, there is no way that the interest rates in US could be kept near zero for several years.
When this will happen – we do not know. The only thing that we know is that such harsh reality is closer than ever. These banks tried to defer their real troubles for several years and got busted finally. Same thing will happen to US$ – let US make any final ditch efforts it can.
You will have to wait for my two articles later in next 15 days which will explain the complex inter-relationship clearly. The space here is not enough to give examples.
Sreeram, UK
22 Dec 09 at 6:58 AM
Dear sir,
Rightly as you said, many are predicting the rise of dollar and consequent subsiding of gold prices. What is your take on this? Would cutting the supply side off make dollar look more attractive & result in a dip for gold prices?
I see and read a lot about dollar carry trade unwinding. Would sucking out dollar from the markets, make it more attractive !? Strange as it may sound, but i wonder how something that has got no solid asset backing it can become stronger in such a case. what are your thoughts?
The reason for me to ask on long positions on gold is to get to know the volume of longs & the price so that i can align my portfolio by buying more gold if needed. I have recently accumulated about 80gms of gold in ETF units. should i buy more in the immediate few days or should i wait?
regards
Raghav, Bangalore
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, December 22, 2009
The real trend of trend in dollar will be known on or after 28/12. Right now, the market is very thin due to holidays, and the US government appears to be using affiliated banks and agencies to buy the dollar index to prop up the dollar and push down the gold price.
Earlier they were using same strategy to push down the oil prices. Now they are focusing on gold. This is why oil is moving up (because there are no conscious efforts to push it down, and instead the resources are diverted to gold).
There was a time when both oil and gold used to move up together because of inflation fears. Now they are moving up or down in isolation.
The banks revenues have gone up by 11% due to rise in derivative trading. This clearly shows that the present movements are due to paper trading.
Nevertheless, as investors we may be guided by immediate gains or losses in market value. For the time being, the gold may trade in lower range. However, when the active trading starts in January, we will know the short term trend. At the moment, you may try to buy some more gold at $1085 level which is a major support level. However, if your price difference is not much, then you may stay on sideline. This is a good level for entry for other first time buyers.
My views on gold has not changed a bit. Wait for my another article soon which will cover many of your posers.
Raghav
21 Dec 09 at 11:22 AM
Sir,
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/RIL-funded-buying-of-own-shares-SEBI/articleshow/5360035.cms
with current news,link provided,your every word and caution coming true about MDAG. Suspect Anil played his one of the many triumph cards after getting poked and poked for long.
I hold just 30 @ 1100/ .While all Indian Business Media and analysts/experts still vouching to buy the scrip, do I keep this penny exposure or still get out considering a small loss ?
LeondellBassell too is opposing the bid.
Ranjana
New Delhi
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, December 22, 2009
There are many loyal followers of RIL and as such the stock keeps on propping up. To me it is extremely overvalued stock and with 1:1 splits, there will be too many shares to handle to cause significant price rise. Nevertheless, being Index stock, the index tracking funds have to keep on buying it whether they like it or not.
It all depends whether you like this stock at current prices. If not, you may come out during first two weeks of rally in January. In fact, you may make some little profit.
Ranjana
21 Dec 09 at 6:45 AM
Hi Sir, The below figures are in millions, if my post is not worthy, please delet it as you are the owner for this site.
Tarun, Dubai
Tarun
21 Dec 09 at 2:20 AM
$ (5,111)
$ (2,495)
$ (2,815)
$ (17,263)
$ 1,593
$ 4,279
$ 101
This is for Sam, Delhi. The above is the previous quarter net profit and net loss for citigroup (the figures in brackets are loss and the last figure is latest -3rd quarter 2009). To understand how the accounting of TARP works, this link will be useful which is really vast in American economic history. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program. Citigroup had received $45 billion of TARP funds last year. Later, around $25 billion of that was converted into common stock that represented around 34% of its stake which is held by taxpayers. Citigroup has remaining $20 billion in TARP fund to repay. The repayment of the TARP fund will free the bank from government involvement in its affairs and pay restrictions. The source from which they want to repay the $20 billion now is to be studied in detail as this money was used to give loans, for trading in various assets etc., and the cashflow is linked with it. As it is a printed money, only god knows how much they printed, how much they distributed and how , when and where the banks used it and how they are repay it now.
Tarun, Dubai, UAE
Tarun
21 Dec 09 at 2:15 AM
Hello Sir,
At one point of time we are saying that economy is still under strees and Citi and Wells Fargo are in duress. At the same time citi and others are repaying 45b$ in bailout money back to US govt. How is it possible?
Regards,
Sam
Delhi
Kalidas Says ….Monday, December 21, 2009
Good question. Ask yourself, you will get answer. 7 IPO of good companies failed in USA to raise even meager $145 million. There were no buyers. Then, who is buying $ 90.5 billions of equity of bankrupt banks? No details are shown.
All on paper, my friend, all on paper. They said they repaid $ 45 billions – from where? Did they have profit, no; did they raise money by bonds, no; did they find white knights having such deep pockets, no, may be yes – US government.
It is a classic case of disinformation. George Orwell who wrote 1984 is turning out to be right on spot after 25 years of delay – but the right he was on right spot.
sam
20 Dec 09 at 10:39 AM
dear sir,
is there any way for an investor to figure out the current long positions in gold - in international markets? which would be the best reliable online source of such information?
regards
Raghav, Bangalore
Kalidas Says ….Monday, December 21, 2009
Gold is trading worldwide. However, most exchanges have direct relationship with NYMEX and COMEX.
If you are referring to futures and options market, NYMEX and Comex in USA and ICE in London may give you open interest in the gold. If someone is short, someone else is long. There is nothing like only shorts and only long position.
That exists only in physical gold – because if I own physical gold bought from you, you no longer owns it. Others are only paper trading.
Many experts have started blabbering that when the central banks start buying, it is time to sell gold, and that gold will go down to triple digits in 2010.
Good guess and logic. Where were those smart asses and experts who did not give you BUY signals when the Central banks were selling gold for over 20 years. At that time, same insects were telling you that gold will go down because the Central banks were selling, and there is a sale hangover.
I marvel at those experts. They speak trash and there are channels like Bloomberg, CNBC to broadcast their views. For them, it is a news, for investors – you decide. And still they claim – First in Business worldwide!
Raghav
18 Dec 09 at 9:10 AM
Dear Kalidas Sir,
Request your view on RNRL . I am holding Qty 750 nos with average buy price of 86.50, CMP : 68.50. I have been waiting for the news on the dispute, to see some movement on the stock. As indicated there would be volatility in market and market would tank soon, is it advisable to book loss at this stage or what would be appropriate time to sell.
Regards,
Atharva , Pune,India
Atharva
17 Dec 09 at 9:57 PM
Hi Sir,
Hope all is well.
Dollar just hit 3 month high. Ofcourse, we all know it is cooked value but again we cannot underestimate the geopolitical infulence and control of oil by USA
Tarun, Dubai, UAE
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, December 17, 2009
Wait until 28/12 and see where the $ is going.
Tarun
17 Dec 09 at 12:17 AM
Hello Sir,
I need your help in refining my personal investment strategy. The way I see things is that we will either have an inflationary or deflationary environment. In Inflation, all asset classes will go up by varying degrees. So Gold may rise more than Stocks which may rise more than Real estate and so on but everything will be up. In deflation, cash will be king and one would be able to buy more gold, more stocks or a bigger house with same cash.
Since I do not understand how to value Gold and I do not want to take debt to buy Real estate, I have decided to split my portfolio between cash and stocks. Right now I am in 80% cash. I plan to start a SIP with half of this cash starting January in an Index MF such that this money gets invested over next 24 months. I plan to invest another 10% soon and keep the remaining 30% cash for any major crash like situation if it appears.
Please advise if you see this as a viable strategy. I will keep this money invested for very long term (10 yrs plus).
Thanks,
Pawan,
Delhi, India
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, December 17, 2009
I have mentioned in my book that Stock Market is the first indicator of inflation. You can not have growth with “condom sex”. The stocks rises not because the infation is under control – that is the ploy the government plays because most are heavily indebted, and they want to keep the interest cost low. So, they talk about inflation.
The stocks rises, because the profits rises, and profits rises because the prices rise, and if the prices rise, it is called inflation. Without inflation the stocks can not rise.Alan Greenspan was fooling the world with his theory of “non inflationary growth”. When you have a tumor, it could be cancer. The doctor may say it is maligned or non maligned. If it is non maligned, why should tumor take birth at all. There must be some reason!
Gold is final money. It is the grandfather of all money. Just as Sanskrit was mother of all languages, gold was the father of all money what we call today $, GBP, Rs, CHF, Yen etc. Father is one like Lord Krishna, and Children are 100s like Kauravas in Mahabharata.
The money has been printed so plentiful, the physical assets will rise in value. Real Estate will also rise. My apartment at Ghatkopar was bought for Rs 65000 and now it is Rs 65 lakhs only because of excess money printed over the time through deficit financing.
You are privileged to be in India. India will not be hurt by deflation – may be IT sector for a while or some other export oriented sectors. Domestic sectors will perform well. It is only stupid Indian Finance Ministers and reckless RBI that is keeping Rupee low which is importing inflation from overseas. If Rupee is allowed to rise, 80% of problems will be automatically resolved for India.
You are trying to balance one paper (cash) with another paper (stocks). You have to keep major portion in physical assets, one of them is gold but not over 15% of total money. Use the cash judiciously to swap between Cash and Stocks (valuable stocks). Wait until 21st January for good stock opportunities. However, opportunity or luck never waits for anybody. If you find something worthwhile before 21/1, take some position.
Invest into mutual funds which are newly floated during crash. If you buy into old one, they will transfer those assets to new ones because there are no takers for old ones.
I never like to invest into mutual funds. Our money should be managed by ourselves. Some time ago, I mentioned it once that 4P = Paisa, Patni, Property or Pen should not be given to others for management or use. One will always loose.
One most important principle of investment is that “you must be in total control and command over any kind of investment”.
Pawan
17 Dec 09 at 12:07 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6819136/Gulf-petro-powers-to-launch-currency-in-latest-threat-to-dollar-hegemony.html
Not sure if it is just rumor
Shiva, Bangalore, India
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, December 17, 2009
No monetary union succeeds without political union first. Compare European Union having common currency without political union – each horse going into different direction. Compare EU with India – where all states have different culture, but are united politically, and this is why their common currency Rupee is more acceptable.
Gulf people have only money, not the advanced education in monetary management. If they float their currency, US will be extremely happy – it can wrack havoc in their currency via derivatives, options, futures, and NDF (Non Deliverable Forward? contracts from Bermuda.
Gulf nations have long history of fighting wars between themselves – Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Palestine, etc. What happens to that currency, if one leader quarrels or wages war with other ME nation.
In fact, the very concept of having common currency is ridiculous. It should never have been adopted at all. How can you command when various nations in EU pull in different directions?
shiva
16 Dec 09 at 11:35 PM
Sir,
What is the reason behind IT stocks moving up, In spite of dollar weakness and margin pressure?
Regards,
Ashok ,Mumbai , India
Ashok
16 Dec 09 at 11:04 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
Ron Paul appeared on morning TV Program Morning Joe. There was a question to Ron Paul from Pat Buchanan, that, in 1971 when Nixon did away the Gold standard the situation was worse, he quotes that “Brits would have come and cleaned-up Fort Knox” what would YOU have done in such a situation?
I am not aware of what happened during that period of time and do not know what the situation was in 1971 when Gold Standard was abolished. Can you thro some light on these comments.
Also in your recent article, “Rating and Mating Game”, Para 5, Please see reference to Dollar Index composition, there could be correction regarding AUS $ to Swiss Franc CHF.
Regards,
== Dongre, NY
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, December 17, 2009
I will have to go through that history. Not many reliable source are available now. It will take time.
Reg. correction in $ Index, you are right. I am correcting the error today.
Dongre
16 Dec 09 at 10:56 PM
Dear Shri Selarka,
You mention that “In less than 30 days from now, some major banks like Citi, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMC, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae, will face severe financial pressure. ”
Could you please let us know what is the extent of this expected pressure, and how would this affect the markets – like would there be a major liquidity crunch. Also what are the chances that the govts would again bail out the banks and this would be ‘made to look’ like a non-event.
Kind regards
Vineet, Delhi, India
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, December 17, 2009
If there is a fire of 5th degree, would you know what will be affected most. When the people run in all directions, we never know who will be going where. Wait for my next article in next few days.
Vineet
16 Dec 09 at 8:16 PM
Dear Sir,
There has been a view for some time now that US dollar and Gold are negatively correlated. Now we are seeing the Dollar become slightly stronger by the day but Gold does not seem to go down anymore. Can you please help us understand what is happening, including your thoughts on where the Dollar and Gold price will go over the next couple of days/weeks?
Regards,
Saumitra
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 16, 2009
I think you missed some mails where I had discussed this issue at length.
Yes, gold was inversely connected to dollar in the past. It was also used as measure of inflation. There is no longer connection with this thesis.
People today are buying gold not to counter inflation but due to total loss of confidence in not only dollar but almost all paper currency.
I had mentioned earlier in the article and also in stop press dated 7/12/2009 as under: “Nothing has changed. The economy is still in shamble. Once the margin calls on gold’s Friday plunge dies down, the Gold will start booming again. It is a question of one or two days.” The correction in gold was due to expiration of contract on14/12 and last trading day was 12/12. If the contracts were not cancelled out, there will be compulsory physical delivery. This is why some depressed the gold prices by rolling over future to February contracts.
This is why I had mentioned that gold will begin to move from Monday (last day of contract), and that is what has happened. If the gold passes through 1135 hurdle, and stays above at closing time, it will move higher and higher.
Dollar will take major dive on or about 28/12, last trading day for US$ Index expiring on 31/12. Such index is settled on quarterly basis – March, June, Sept and Dec On expiration day, the holder of dollar long (bought) contracts will have to buy dollar and deliver underlying currencies such as Euro, GBP, Can$, Yen, Sweedish Kroner and Aussie dollar. If the holder does not have those currencies, he will have to go to the market to buy it and deliver to the person from whom he bought the dollar contracts. Dollar will show marked weakness – from 2% t 6% – in single day.
Gold will therefore shoot up more around this time when people could sell some to book the profit if they have. Otherwise, they can hold on longer term basis.
In less than 30 days from now, some major banks like Citi, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMC, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae, will face severe financial pressure. Some other countries like Vietnam, Greece, Iceland, Austria, Spain and some latin countries like Argentina will come under severe attack. The troubles there are created so that people sell their currencies and buy dollar. It may not work.
Saumitra
16 Dec 09 at 12:59 AM
Dear Sir-
Recently you recommended Essar Oil, Kindly let us know more details on your buy call for the same also the ST & LT target for it.
Thanks,
Siva
Chennai
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 16, 2009
I will issue the detailed recommendations later.
Siva
15 Dec 09 at 11:28 PM
Sir,
You have given a sell all call on 11th November, but you are giving some buy call like the one below to Satya to buy IFCI. Kindly advice us if the earlier sell all call is no longer applicable.
Thanks
Bobby, Singapore
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 16, 2009
My Sell call was 40:20:20 retaining balance 10% to 20% on long term. Even in down market, some stocks go up.
The readers already had 3000 shrs of IFCI @61. Having regard to his specific losing position, and the fact that I noticed momentum in IFCI, I suggested buying IFCI at lower level. That reader did not sell IFCI at that time or even when the stock went to Rs 61 when I suggested selling after buying at 41 to 43.50 or about. It seems that the reader may have bought instead of selling at that time.
The idea of selling 40:20:20 was to average up the selling price if the market is still not unstable. If the market drops 25% or by 4000 points, the holder may lose only on remaining 20%, between 5% of original investment which is easily recoverable.
The time to sell another 20% to 40% will arise from 28/12 t0 21/10. The situation is worsening very fast – Citibank will collapse at any time. Bank of America may also fail and Wells Fargo could become unstable. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae may go bust even if the government helps
Vietnam, Greece, Spain, Austria, Europe and UK will come under severe pressure due to rising defaults. Some large banks in Europe and UK will also fail. We are heading towards the cliff.
I am holding off till January 3rd week, because many tax related selling in US will be bought back in January. In USA, only physical losses (that is, losses are booked physically, not on paper) are tax deductible. This is why often some sell sell stock A in December and buy back again in January. Once this technical adjustment is done, normal fundamental factors will start reasserting.
Bobby
15 Dec 09 at 8:59 PM
Hi Anil,
My equity investments is 0% and Cash is 100%. Do I need to buy anything now or be happy with the cash till see the correction.
Regards
Selvan.
UK
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Wait until 21/1
Selvan
15 Dec 09 at 11:04 AM
Kalidasji,
Today IFCI tanked and tottering at 51.10. I am holding 3000 shares @ 61.00. What should be my strategy?
Regards,
Sathya
Chennai
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, December 15, 2009
When did you buy at this price – recently? In that case, you must be a stock chaser. If you bought earlier,what were you doing when the stock was there below 18 for very very long time? You should have bought at least 6000 then.
Now, buy 1000 now, and for any reason the stock falls further due to market correction, then buy 1000 more below Rs 43.50.
If the stock rises to 57 or so after your buying at 51, sell 2000 then, and buy back if they fall again to 51 or below.
The stock is destined to go to Rs 71 in less than 3 months, judging from its recent movements.
sathya
15 Dec 09 at 4:50 AM
Respected Sir,
I am a silent reader of your blog, and conferred you as my Philosopher and/or Guru. I would like to initiate my Research (Ph.D) on “Mystical Numbers”. Please send your personal Email-id for further clarifications.
Best Regards,
M.Veeraiyan,
Dhofar University, Salalah,
Oman.
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Email sent separately to your mailbox.
M.Veeraiyan
15 Dec 09 at 4:43 AM
sir,
i am 33 yrs. old Govt. employee, i have term plan of Rs.25 lakhs and i have also invested Rs.1.50 lakhs in stocks mostly recommended by you for medium to long term. i have also contribution 40% of my salary to my GPF for future requirement.
My query is, i want to invest some money approx Rs. 1 lakhs in any reputed stock for at least 12 – 15 years, so my sons (4 yrs.) can get a good money to study. please recommend me one stock to invest, if you found this strategy good?
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 16, 2009
At the moment, I suggest you the following stocks (which you can buy now)m presuming your time horizon is 10 to 15 years. If the market corrects, these good stocks could also lose value, but you can add more.
Petronet LNG 600@ 71.00 = – Rs 43,000
Abhishek Ind 700@14.10 = – Rs 10,000
Dish TV 500 @41.10 = – Rs 21,500
LICHF 200 @787 = – Rs 16,000
IFCI 200 @ 51 = – Rs 10,000
TOTAL = – Rs 100,500
If I want to invest on very long term basis. I would buy the above stocks in Correction which I do expect before 21/1. You may be able to buy them cheaper. In that case, you may buy more quantities keeping allocated amount same. Any dividend you receive must be invested back into same stock.
dainy
15 Dec 09 at 4:24 AM
would you please advise on the factors to be taken into consideration for choosing the gold etf. May pl offer your view on SBI gold ETS
seshavataram
Ankleshwar
seshavataram
15 Dec 09 at 1:33 AM
Respected Kalidasji,
You have provided us a buying plan for a scrip. What about selling plan? Kindly provide us.
Regards,
V.S.Kumar, Jorhat
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, December 15, 2009
I have already provided the selling target on short term, medium term and long term based on various time frame. Whenever the stock is within 8% (very short term) to 20% (medium to long term) of target range, start following closely and then take your own selling decision at that time. If the stock moves up too fast in momentum, it is always advisable to sell into such rallies. Never keep moving targets.
V.S.KUMAR
14 Dec 09 at 9:56 PM
Kalidasji,
This is reference to my earlier query about currency reverse split (on 3rd Dec) and its outlook in India.
Suppose a currency reverse split actually does happen in India, then, what happens to the loan repayment (example home loan)?
I guess its probably premature to ask this now, but considering the fact that many like me might have taken long term home loans and I bet that most of the leading banks in India have probably not factored in such scenario while approving loans.
Thanks in advance.
Regards,
Atul
Singapore
Kalidas Says ….Monday, December 14, 2009
Both loans and deposits will be converted into new units in same proportion. So there will be no loss to the loan holders.
India is not the candidate for such reverse split. It happens into countries having very high level of hyper-inflation. USA will be the one, unless they demonetize the Eurodollar which will have effect of contracting dollar supply that will increase the price of USD vs other currencies. However, it will take years for US government to do that.
Atul Upare
14 Dec 09 at 8:15 AM
Dear kalidas ji,
I am reposting my question for you. Original post 10/12/2009.
Dear Kalidasji,
Please provide your long term views on
1) Godrej Consumer BSE: 532424|NSE: GODREJCP|ISIN: INE102D01028
500@250 CMP:275
2) Godrej Ind. BSE: 500164|NSE: GODREJIND|ISIN: INE233A01035
245@150 CMP: 185.55
3) Grasim. BSE: 500300/ NSE: GRASIM|ISIN: INE047A01013
200@1500 CMP: 2389.60
should one stay in this stocks for long term? If not please suggest stocks for switching.
is it time to sell the 20% you told about? or the time has not come yet? I have already sold 40% as per the advice.
Harsh Patel Ahmedabad India
Kalidas Says ….Monday, December 14, 2009
Stay with them until 28/12. I will inform you more after that date.
Harsh Patel
13 Dec 09 at 9:20 PM
ANNOUNCEMENT
Stockwatch covers PETRONET LNG under Ref: 09-002 of 14-Dec-2009. Please see under pages » StockWatch » Expand + sign >> Click 09-002- Petronet LNG – Stockwatch series
Use the PDF file for properly formatted version under Download Pool » Pages » Stockwatch » 2009 » Petronet LNG
The author may not reply to comments posted by the readers, although Comment section is open. The informaton ie exhaustive and self explanatory. Do not ask too many questions.
Kalidas (Anil Selarka)
Hong Kong, 14-Dec-2009
Anil Selarka
13 Dec 09 at 7:37 AM
Kalidasji
The below linkmight interest the readers about how Americans loot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTbdnNgqfs8&NR=1
Xavier
13 Dec 09 at 12:29 AM
This is for readers information MMTC Ltd have started selling silver Coins in 0.999 purity & Gold Coins in0.999 purity in different denomination from one gram to fifty grams and also 100 gms gold bar online (II)For direct physical sale contact SCOPE 011-24362200 & Jhande wallan &, Mumbai 022-66784000- 4005-4118 & 4017 for further enquiry.
V N Jaiswar, MMTC Ltd. India
(added by Kalidas as original message did not have signature appended)
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, December 12, 2009
It appears that the commenter is some one from MMTC
V B Jaiswar
11 Dec 09 at 9:36 PM
Dear Kalidas,
Do you relook Satyam Target Price now? CMP – Rs. 106/-.
thanks
Rajesh, Chennai
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 13, 2009
Such items may crop up again and again. Law suits are very difficult to predict, because they depend largely on agreements or contracts that we can not have access to. They are internal documents.
Yes, it is stok positive. In fact, the stock started moving up on this news which must have been leaked out by their Accountants or Managements. It is now non event so the stock may correct from recent rise.
However, the company can not get on with the new job. My original target remain same Rs 160 in short term and 210 in medium term. However, I am taking a view that we are going to enter the period of extreme volatility from 28/12 and optimistically from 16/January/2010 when the buying back of tax related sales in December is reversed.
I think the time is coming soon to sell another 20% t0 40% of the stocks in rally. Many countries will be hit below its belt, and there could be “currency contagion”. The period of rising rates is coming, and so also the possible departure of Bernanke and Geithner in spite of optimism that they would stay on,
Rajesh Kannan
11 Dec 09 at 12:17 PM
Dear Sir ,
Can you please explain the 35:85 rule in detail or refer me to web-links/documents regarding the 35:85 rule.
Regards.,
Jagadish
Bangalore,India
Jagadish
11 Dec 09 at 11:55 AM
Dear Sir,
Just watched Jim Rogers interview with Maria Bartiromo on CNBC he sounded so much like you. He must be a frequent visitor to your site.
Bashing Fed and its management, weaker on US dollars, bullish on gold he was so much Kalidas-like.
He even made a good joke,US spending more dollars now to get out of this mess is like Tiger Woods getting a new girlfriend to solve his current mess.
Sir, World is finally taking a note of your work.
Regards
Deepak, Mysooru, India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 13, 2009
Jim rogers is very reputed person. He is too big to follow me or even notice me.
deepak
11 Dec 09 at 11:23 AM
Dear Sir
Silver has fallen 10% in the last 10 days (since 02 December) from around 19.20 to 17.30 Dollars. I have personally taken it as an opportunity to buy, and have just bought physical Silver 999.9 for 595 Dollars per kg bar from a reputed dealer in Dubai.
I hope I have got a good deal. Please advise if it would be advisable to buy more if it falls further.
Vikas, Dubai, UAE
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, December 12, 2009
1 kg = 32.151 ounces. $17.30 x 32.151 = $556.21. It appears that you paid about 7% over parity. in Silver, the prices are 3% to 5% higher over parity. You paid at the most 2% more. Always negotiate the price.
Today is perhaps last day for gold/silver correction. The situation should reverse from 14/12 or 15/12 onwards. Tomorrow is the last day for settlement for Dec Contract. If you want to buu within last 2 days, enter your price at $ 16,65 or $16.35. Since you are buying physical, this limit may not apply. In futures, you could enter limit price.
vikas
11 Dec 09 at 8:41 AM
Dear Sir,
1. After reading your articles, I am planning to invest in gold ETF, since my investment amount is less than 1 lakh INR. But I don’t know which ETF to choose. Could u please suggest a Gold ETF for me.
2. Please advice on Maytas infra, holding 1000 shares at 85
Regards,
Radhika
Hyderabad
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, December 13, 2009
Gold ETF:
I followed in the past only Quantum Gold ETF which is quite good. Look around for more Gold ETF. Whichever is having larger trading volume would be better to go in. Still, my preference is only Quantum at the moment.
Maytas Infra:
Sell about 400 and retain the balance. If ILFS offer to buy 22% stake goes through, the company will have lot of financial backing. By selling 400 shares, you are recovering almost 80% of capital reducing overall risk. We do not know their hidden liabilities, further, their sales have been going down obviously due to financial constraints. ILFS involvement may raise its profile. It may be noted that ILFS buying of 22% stake is not going to give any liquidity to the company as, the sales proceeds go to the selling shareholders. It all depends on how the deal is structured.
Radhika
11 Dec 09 at 6:55 AM
With due permission from Kalidasji..Useful information for Bangloreans
Dear Readers from Bangalore,
Today I bought 999 purity 50gms of gold from Bangalore refinery(www.bangalorerefinery.com) for Rs.88000(inclusive of VAT) when Gold was US$1135.70/ounce and 1 US$=46.56 and according to Kalidas’s fair price calculation it comes less 2.47% than the fair price calculated. This purchase is straight from the refinery, hence there is no dealer’s margin. They buy back the gold @1.5% less than the gold base price(today’s base price=Rs.1749).
Lot of dealers in Bangalore buy from the same Refinery and sell them to the consumers. I have checked the purity of the bars in Tanishq in caratometer for purity and it is positive.
Wish Kalidasji and all golden profit with Golden health.
Rang-Jama, Bangalore
Kalidas Says ….Friday, December 11, 2009
You did a good thing. My formula already includes dealer’s margin of 3%, so it is okay. I am sure you will make money. Watch the scenario from Monday (14/12) onwards, and especially after 28/12 onwards.
Rang-Jama
11 Dec 09 at 3:09 AM
Anilji,
Just came across following article whose link is as under:http://www.moneynews.com/streettalk/roubini_gold_believe_/2009/12/10/296960.html?s=al&promo_code=92FD-1
Its Nouriel Roubini thoughts on Gold prices.Would like to hv your comments.
Sanjay,Mumbai,India
Kalidas Says ….Friday, December 11, 2009
He is an economist, not pragmatist. He does not know how the market works. Further, no one is buying gold to counter inflation. People are buying gold due to loss of confidence in paper currencies.
Further, in deflation the “real goods” go down in supply, but there will be increasing number of paper supply due to stimulus package. So same goods will be chased by rising number of paper currency which will be inflation. We are going to enter the period of not inflation, not deflation but Stagflation.
He may not have target of even 1500 or 2000. He should read my article “Gold $6400, Silver $80″. Let him say that I am crazy. Time has always proved me right.
Sanjay
11 Dec 09 at 2:02 AM
Dear Sir,
I saw your recommendations to some readers for Essar Group Shares. I just wish to share my bad experience with one of the Essar Group share namely Essar Steel. In a very good market time when all steel companies were making roaring profits, Essar Steel decided to delist its shares by fixing very low price and bought out the entire minority share holding of the Company and delisted its shares. I am also one of the person sufferred in this game (even though not incurred any loss, I lost the oppurtuinty to make good returns as if I invested in other steel companies shares). With this in my mind, I am presently avoiding any of the Essar Group Shares even if I found good oppurtunity as stated by you. Kindly advice if I am wrong in my decision.
Is this the right time to buy IFCI or shall I wait for the market correction (Already sold the entire shares i.e. 1000 Nos. @51 which was bought @47).Even if you have sold at 51, buy back now. The chances of making money are 80% at current prices.
Thanks & Regards,
Balaji-Hong Kong.
Kalidas Says ….Friday, December 11, 2009
Agreed. I did not suffer because I had sold in rally, but my business partner did. Yes, it is “chor” group, but Essar Oil is now a different scenaraio for following reasons:
1. Essar management themselves bought some stake @ Rs 200. They will not privatize at less than that number.
2. Essar oil, after the acquisition, will be several times bigger than Essar Steel. At the time of severe crisis, it can not raise money running into Rs 40,000 crores or about by way of debt, equity or FPO via QIP.
3. Royal Dutch Shell may hold 10% stake in this company. It will never agree or vote for privatization later. It will be backed by many fund managers.
4. After the acquisition, the company will become so big that it will be inducted in BSE/NSE. Many index tracking funds will buy into this stock. They will never vote for privatization even if sought by the management.
IFCI:
After my reco. the stock advanced by 8% to 11%. It has corrected back to 55 or down 2%. I am taking a view that considering the momentum the stock may test the level of Rs 71 to Rs 75 max. However you have to be a fast player. If it does not rise before January 10, just get out whatever be the price.
I am taking a view that we are now entering the critical phase of currency contagion, higher rates, and dollar fall on or around 28/12. $ Index expires on 31/12 with last tradng day on 28/12.
The January may seem better but it will falter with the wealer dollar. I am taking a view that we are in final phase of bullish run. Better sell in this year end rally by another 20% or even 30%. Do not buy back any other stock in corrections during January. First 15 days of January could be bullish in USA due to Dec/Jan effect where the people sell in December to book the physical losses for tax reasons and buying back in January.
BSE could possibly go towards 17800 to 18200 when you can lighten up by another 40%, that is, you are out of market with 80% cash.
Balaji
10 Dec 09 at 10:16 PM
Dear Sir,
As understood by your article and response to other readers, it seems that for the time being the Dollar will remain stronger and commodities like Gold or silver prices will be suppressed.
In this scenario do you think that Share market in other countries may crash? The reason to ask this question is that since the major broker and bankers on behalf of US may sell the stacks/currencies/commodities in other countries and buy the US Dollar/Share to boost the US share market.
Regards,
Vijay
Kalidas Says ….Friday, December 11, 2009
No, you have wrongly concluded. I have mentioned in this column before that gold price will begin to move from 11/12 or today, but pace will pick up from Monday onwards.
The dollar will begin to go lower, and will suffer most near year end.
First warning signs about dollar was seen yesterday, when 30Year Treasury Auction did not go well. The rates rose.
We are now seeing the bottom of property prices in USA. Once the rate begin to rise, the people will rush to the market to buy the property to lock in lower interest rates before they go too high. This will be contrary to popular views that higher rates will reduce the demand for the property.
However, Dow will fall most, S&P too, but Nasdaq will perform better.
Vijay
10 Dec 09 at 2:31 PM
Dear Sir,
I read in one of your replies to Ranjana that one
should reduce thier exposure in ADAG scripts, Sir it is always said that one should invest in stocks when there is bad news surrounding them and sell when there is good news.
If we speak about Reliance Power Anil Ambani has done a great job in completing the Rosa Power Project in Uttar Pradesh ahead of schedule, there have been reports in newspaper about Rosa going on stream before december end ahead of the schedule of March 2010.
Sir I dont understand how complex it is to built a power plant but I understand one thing that it must be the aggression and determination of management that will make this power plant through well ahead of time.
At present Reliance power may not have revenue from the business model but with Rosa project execution it will start earning revenue from its core business of power generation .India is facing acute shortage of power generation does this not make power generation business very lucrative?
Secondly does this not put an end to the controversy about Anil Ambani’s potential for completing big projects so is it not worth to buy Reliance Power at every fall for long term.
Regards,
Naresh Kumar
Pune, India
Kalidas Says ….Friday, December 11, 2009
My was only short term view. At the same time, there was attractive opportunity in Essar Oil, Essar Shipping and IFCI. It was only temporary swap. Even if the Rpower comes to production, the present law suit and triangular acrimony will keep the stock under pressure. From Long term point of view you are absolutely right and for that reason, we gave buy call for this group.
Naresh Kumar
10 Dec 09 at 10:01 AM
Dear Kalidasji,
Please provide your long term views on
1) Godrej Consumer BSE: 532424|NSE: GODREJCP|ISIN: INE102D01028
500@250 CMP:275
2) Godrej Ind. BSE: 500164|NSE: GODREJIND|ISIN: INE233A01035
245@150 CMP: 185.55
3) Grasim. BSE: 500300/ NSE: GRASIM|ISIN: INE047A01013
200@1500 CMP: 2389.60
should one stay in this stocks for long term? If not please suggest stocks for switching.
is it time to sell the 20% you told about? or the time has not come yet? I have already sold 40% as per the advice.
Harsh Patel Ahmedabad India
Harsh Patel
10 Dec 09 at 9:36 AM
Sir,
Humble request!
Why don’t you come out in public (newspaper-articles, tv-interviews, etc) and tell this world about this big US Ploy!
It will be great service to entire world. There are lots of TV-channels in India who shall be ready to expose this to entire world.
Its not that simple, but still I feel that you should at least give it a try.
Regards,
Gaurav
Kalidas Says ….Friday, December 11, 2009
Are you referring to my new article – Rating and Mating Game? then, you have posted comments in wrong forum. Anyway, thanks for your suggestions. However, the newspapers, TV media has to invite me. Even if I write to them, they will throw it in the dustbin.
Gaurav
10 Dec 09 at 9:23 AM
Sir,
There are a set of company company FD options given in the below site
http://www.iepindia.com/manufincompanies.html
The interest rates are better bank FD’s, would you recommend any of the FD’s listed in the above site?
Thanks
Bobby, Singapore
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, December 10, 2009
The difference in interest rates is very negligible and risks higher. I would not compromise safety for 0.5% extra interest rates. further, they are subject to TDS @10%.
I would rather invest into equity of growing companies with expected higher dividend pay out. Bank stocks are better than these FD. Auto/Cement/Steel equities are also better.
Bobby
10 Dec 09 at 6:52 AM
Dear Kalidasjee
Im sorry to bother you again. But u haven’t actually responded to my question on making small charities out of monthly surplus.
I dont believe in NGOs like cry, care, etc.
Thanks
Aditya
Mumbai – India
Aditya
10 Dec 09 at 5:16 AM
Thanks for your suggestion sir, i will take note of it but would you please outline that why do u recommend ETF over physical gold cause i think for an ETF i will have to bear the brokerage and AMC charges which would be simply 0 in the case of gold , and i can invest up to 25-30K in gold .
Bilal
New Delhi
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, December 10, 2009
You end up paying much higher commission in physical gold. for smaller lot, buying of physical gold is not so profitable. this is why I advocated Gold ETF against physical gold which is my first preference. The size matters.
also, I do not want to remind umpteen times. Spell check your message and capitalize the words properly before you post.
bilal
10 Dec 09 at 2:11 AM
Dear Kalidas,
What would be the future for Cals Refineries? This Company was eulogized by Media in 2008. Spice Group is also a Promoter I guess. How do we assess these kind of Companies now? and while they are entering into Market with big Promises?
Rajesh, Chennai.
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, December 10, 2009
No comments. I do not follow the named stocks. If I form an opinion later, I might send you an email. Further, when you have a broader choice of well established oil stocks like Essar Oil, MRPL, Cairn energy, HPCL etc. why do you want to go relatively unknown stocks?
Essar oil is buying refineries from Royal Dutch Shell which will increase its revenue by 100% (the cumulative refining capacity of 3 refineries is 22.5 mtons). It will become the biggest private sector refinery in India, outstripping even Reliance. With so much of sales and profits, and higher number of shares to be issued to Royal Dutch Shell for payment, the market cap of Essar Oil will double or even treble. It will become BSE/NSE Index stocks which will force all fund/pension managers to buy this stock by compulsion to track the index.
Further, Essar Shipping will double or treble its business of crude oil transportation. It is having youngest fleet to transport oil. This stock will also treble in less than 2 years.
So when we have rising star on our radar, why do we divert attention to lesser known stocks?
Rajesh Kannan
9 Dec 09 at 11:25 PM
Sir,
This is further to your reply dated 9th Dec on Gold Deposit Scheme. I tried searching Oct, Nov, Dec series but could not find any thing related to this. Could you please re-post the same ?
Thanks,
Gopi Sekar
Chennai, India
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, December 10, 2009
It is there in the month of Nov 2009 itself. It is reproduced for your ready information:
Gopi Sekar
9 Dec 09 at 2:07 PM
Dear Sir,
Is Satyam settling the Upaid case a positive development? Is this stock ripe for short term investment, say not more than a month?
I know about your call to exit from the market. But still querying because of this new development.
Regards,
Shankar
Atlanta USA
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, December 10, 2009
It is stock positive. this is why the stock was moving upfor the last few days. Insiders always have that info. This is why rising volume on rising price often portend better news ahead,
Shankar
9 Dec 09 at 12:16 PM
Dear Sir ,
I could not see a link to the new satirical article in the right side menu nor in the Rss feed .
Could you please check this .
ps : I located the article via the search facility and now reading it .
Wishing you best of every thing in life .
Sachin , pune , India .
Kalidas – It is now there, There was some bug which prevented it. I had to cancel the article and repost it again.
sachin
9 Dec 09 at 11:45 AM
ANNOUNCEMENT
I have published today a small satirical article “HEALTH I CARE, WEALTH I DON’T – OBAMA” which is appearing under the Pages>>Dumb Deaf and Duffer series.
Visit it and enjoy. PDF version is also available on Scribd and Box.net as well
Anil Selarka, Author
Hong Kong. 09.Dec.2009
Anil Selarka
9 Dec 09 at 10:17 AM
Dear Sir,
I just made a comparison for buying physical Gold from two sources GRT jewelery, Bangalore & NSEL Mumbai today Wednesday 2.00pm IST, by asking both over phone.
1. NSEL sells 8gm coins of 995 purity for Rs.14276/- (including everything). So per gm comes Rs.1784.50.
They will not buy back, but can be sold anywhere.
As someone mentioned before, I believe they deliver MMTC labeled coins.
2. GRT sells 1 Troy ounce coin ( 31.10 gm) of 9999 purity for Rs.56212/- ( inclusive all). So per gm comes Rs.1807.46. They will buy back the same for Rs.54300/- ( i.e Rs 1746/- per gm). The purity certificate is from GRT jewelery.
Is GRT jewelery charging fair price & the buy back is also in fair price? how should I compare between 995 and 9999 purity gold.
Thanks,
-Santosh
Bangalore
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, December 10, 2009
I will not be able to judge whether the price is fair or not unless I know the Gold prices in $ at that time and also the exchange rate in Rupees/$. Use my Fair Gold Price Calculator which is easy to work with. Go to the sidebar and download the calculator.
Santosh
9 Dec 09 at 8:24 AM
Sir,
i am a small investor i was planning to invest in gold as per the your recommendations , but i am a little confused that should i buy 10 grams gold or any listed gold ETF from the exchange , what is better as per you?
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 09, 2009
If your budget is less than Rs 100,000, then chose Gold ETF such as Quantum Gold ETF. There are many others, like UTI, Reliance etc. make your own choice. Try to understand those ETF first before buying.
bilal
9 Dec 09 at 2:19 AM
Sir,
I have been following you for some time now and your analysis are impeccable.
I have been trying to buy Platinum for some time now. I am disappointed that there is no place to buy Platinum coins or bars. Please help me if you know anyone in and around Lucknow.
Moreover, Ketan Parekh had blemished the names of Cals refineries and Temptation Foods. What are your opinions on these companies?
Regards
Suhas Phadnis
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Where are you from? Reminder: To get reply, please append City and Country name to your signature invariably.
Try MMTC – who deal in platinum as well. Click the MMTC Contact details here to find more information
Another source is in Mumbai – Parekh Platinum Ltd. Talk to them over the phone. They open at 9:00 AM.
CAUTION AND DISCLAIMER: Please note that above information is given to you without any responsibility or guarantee. You have to make your own investigation. What is given here is for informational purpose only.
Suhas Phadnis
9 Dec 09 at 12:19 AM
Sorry Sir, But as you might have noticed, most of my messages are posted late after midnight. Because that is the only time I get to read on the net and I use my mobile phone to type and hence this problem.
I will be careful while writing next time.
hhh
Mumbai
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 09, 2009
I guessed that. But please do not write hhh. Write real name. Who you are afraid of?
hhh
8 Dec 09 at 9:42 PM
Anilji,
I am interested to buy gold in kolkata.Kindly suggest any good place in kolkata for the same.
regards
pralay
kolkata
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 09, 2009
I would not know. Use search engine http://www.justdial.com and input Kolkata and Gold/gold bars as search items
pralay
8 Dec 09 at 9:37 PM
Kalidasji,
Obama has outlined multi billion dollar stimulus packages. Here’s the link
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-Obama-plans-spend-our-way-apf-1476302163.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Does this mean good for equity markets and bad for gold ?
Last year when such packages were announced, money was pumped into equities. Pardon me if this was a foolish question.
Also sir, i am waiting for your reply for the query i had mailed you.
hhh,
mumbai
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 09, 2009 You are still engaged in posting messages without spell checks and capitalizing the words properly. Repost your message. This will be deleted.
In one line reply, I can only say that “new package is nothing but same old package. It will have same effect as the previous one. Things are getting out of control”
hhh
8 Dec 09 at 1:26 PM
Sir,
What is your opinion on Gold Deposit Scheme provided by State Bank of India ? It seems to provide safety for the investment along with interest (not much though 1% for 3 years and 1.5% for 5 years). Other draw back being the gold deposited is melted and there is no way to get back the original gold. On maturity the user can either convert the deposit in to cash or equivalent gold bars.
Regards,
Gopi Sekar
Chennai, India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Someone asked this question either in December or November which was replied. visit those months and check it out. I want to avoid duplication.
Gopi Sekar
8 Dec 09 at 11:42 AM
Hi Anil Ji,
Thanks for your reply to my last post. Really appreciate that. After reading your post on GOLD, I want to buy gold in multiples of 8g/10g coin so that it gives me some liquidity if need arises.
Please tell me the best source in Delhi from where I can buy the same. I saw someone referring about NSEL but that doesnt have presense in Delhi.
Thanks a lot.
Vinay Kumar
New Delhi
Vinay Kumar
8 Dec 09 at 9:58 AM
For Santosh (Bangalore) & Fellow boarders:
I got below info form NSEL website:
“***************************************
http://www.nationalspotexchange.com/Sitepages/Products.aspx
PRODUCTs:
National Spot Exchange is providing an unbiased and state-of-art platform for buying and selling of commodities. Commodities traded on National Spot Exchange includes agricultural commodities, bullions, metals and some Industrial products (to be introduced later). Commodity is traded in contract form, which has standard quality specification. All contracts are of single day duration having different settlement cycle depending upon the commodity and market practices. The Exchange offers two types of contract ( Farmer’s contract and trader’s contract) in agriculture commodity. Farmer’s contract is market cess unpaid and has smaller lot size to facilitate even a marginal farmer to sell their produce. Trader’s contract is market cess paid and usually has larger trading lot size. A commodity may have multiple contract based on the market location, settlement cycle, and lot size.
Main aim of the Exchange is to bring a large number of buyers and sellers on the same platform for spot price discovery and to make sure that the commodity bought and sold on the Exchange is delivered on time without the counter-party risks to the traders.
The potential participants / traders on the Exchange can be farmers, farmers co-operatives, corporate, wholesalers, exporters, Importers, processors, co-operatives / associations, government etc.
***************************************”
Best Regards
BV. Mumbai, India.
BV
8 Dec 09 at 9:36 AM
For Santosh (B’luru) & other readers:
The charm of this section of the blog is lost when we start interacting among ourselves. This section is meant for us to obtain clarity & answers from the torch bearer, Shri Anil Selarka.
He did try to provide the option of responding to his comments/ other readers’ posts but the same was discontinued owing to technical snag. Anilji, you might consider having a separate page/section for interaction among your readers. I presume we could benefit from some local knowledge/ practical experience of other readers.
However, I shall answer your query:
All details pertaining to National Spot Exchange Limited (NSEL) can be obtained through the following contact information:
National Spot Exchange Limited
102 A, Landmark,
Suren Road, Chakala,
Andheri – East,
Mumbai – 400093.
India
Tel.: +91-22-6761 9900
Fax: +91-22-6761 9931
E-mail : info@nationalspotexchange.com
Website : http://www.nationalspotexchange.com
I had called up to enquire regarding the centres for delivery & trading – They are presently available in Hyderabad, Ahmedabad & Mumbai. Anyone can visit their Mumbai office and obtain coins by paying cash! Besides, the officer also informed that these three cities are chosen for trial purpose. They would soon (Jan 2010) be launching their services in 50 centres (Pan India).
Further, they would be launching 10g coins shortly and 1g & 5g coins in near future.
For any queries related to delivery centres of Gold, one can speak to Mr. Arpan Jain through board line number (given above). His mobile number too can be obtained from the board line or from the precious commodities department.
Hope, this information is useful.
Regards,
Abhyasi
Hyd, India
Abhyasi
8 Dec 09 at 5:02 AM
Dear Sir,
This post is for Abhyasi.
Any idea being in Bangalore, can I buy gold from NSEL ?
I have demat a/c with hdfc & icici. Will it help?
Thanks,
-Santosh,
Bangalore
Santosh
8 Dec 09 at 3:53 AM
For v8r, Stockholm:
Following is my post, reproduced verbatim. However, it might be useful for people residing in Hyderabad & Ahmedabad (cities in India), where NSEL operates currently.
Posted on Saturday, October 24, 2009
”
Recently I had a comparison done for buying Gold in Hyderabad and it turned out that the National Spot Exchange Limited (NSEL) offers the lowest price.
Following are the prices in INR inclusive of VAT (as on 31/08/2009) – of an 8g coin 999 purity – for a comparison:
Bank of Baroda – 13260
State Bank of India – 13220
Bank of India – 13450
Tanishq – 13804
Reliance Jewels – 13200
Delhi Bullion Market – 13200
National Spot Exchange – 12350
It is traded on the exchange and therefore price movements can be taken advantage of, as the prices in banks & showrooms remain constant for a particular day.
What surprised me was that the coin had the MMTC stamp & certification. I called up MMTC to learn that their price for the same 8g coin (incl of VAT) was Rs.700 more than what I got it for!
I took the coin from Karvy Commodities Broking.. and got the delivery on the same day evening from their branch. Karvy charges a brokerage of Rs.300 per coin; not aware of other members of NSEL in Hyd. NSEL has got its delivery centres at Ahemdabad & Hyderabad currently.
Product Specifications:
Available in: 8g only
Price incl of VAT
999 purity
Certified by IBMA
Approved by NSEL
Tamper proof packaging
Today’s price while I write this is INR 12700 for 8g while the future’s on MCX is INR 12745 for 8g. In my belief this is the cheapest source of genuine product (MMTC).
”
Regards,
Abhyasi
Hyd, India
Abhyasi
8 Dec 09 at 3:08 AM
Dear Anilji,
The broker’s targets further run down to breaking $1000, which I had not mentioned, because I’m myself not convinced.
This reason instigated me in asking you the query. The mentioned target levels are almost 13% to 15% downward from today’s levels, which could be a big big opportunity.. Hence the curiosity.
Thank you for your reassurance.
Regards,
Abhyasi
Hyd, India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, December 08, 2009
Anything happens in the market. Everyone is entitled to his views. Quoted broker had his own, so did I have mine.
Abhyasi
8 Dec 09 at 2:54 AM
Dear Kalidasji,
On 7-12-09 i have purchased four GOLD coin of 5 Gram , 24 carat , 0.995 purity and tolerence of + or -50 mg. from Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri Shop.They have counted gold price as under :
Gold price per gram on 7-12-09 : Rs. 1813 per gram
Labour Charge for Making of Coin : Rs. 30 per gram
VAT ( 1 % ) : Rs.18.43 per gram
They also buyback the coin ( which they have sold ) :
Buy back price of gold coin is Rs. (Gold price)*0.98 per gram.
At the same time TANISHQUE gold coin price for 10 gram was Rs.20400 of 24 carat, 0.999 purity. They also buyback the coin ( which they have slod ),but buyback price of gold coin is Rs.(Gold price)*0.95 per gram.
Pl. give your view on both of above and comment on my purchase.
- Ramesh, Mumbai, India.
Ramesh
8 Dec 09 at 12:57 AM
Hi Abhyasi, Hyderabad,
Once you had posted a very useful note for buying gold.
Could you please post it again?
Thanks,
v8r, Stockholm.
v8r
7 Dec 09 at 11:21 PM
Dear Anil ji,
1. A couple of commodity brokers (Research team) whom I’ve enquired with, are bearish on gold with targets of $1130, $1070 & even possibly $1030.
2. Another argument was that gold has been rising from levels of INR 14,000 continually up to INR 18,000. Therefore, technically, gold should fall to INR 16,000 & consolidate, before resuming its upward journey.
3. In case you do not agree to the above, Do you forsee any other developments that would give us similar opportunities to buy gold at lower levels ($1135 – $1145)? CMP: $1165 Would it be prudent to wait for any such correction?
Your comments on the above are eagerly awaited.
Regards,
Abhyasi
Hyderabad, India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, December 08, 2009
You are talking to traders. I am among strategic long term investors. I do not go by technical analysis – it is meant for traders. Do they know that US has lost 90% of its gold?
My approach is mainly fundamental analysis. When my target is pretty high (above $2400 to $3200 in normal circumstances, and up to $6400 in case my analysis of US not having enough gold is proved correct) I do not care whether I pay $1135 or $1035. I have been suggesting gold ever since it was around $ 735. In fact, I have asked investors here in this forum to buy right up to $ 1235 and then wait.
In fact, I gave target of $1200 about 10 years ago in Progressive Group (Association of Indian Businessmen in Hong Kong) lunch-on meeting in Hong Kong, when the gold was just $257 to $287 level, and I forecast that US$ was a bankrupt currency. Many laughed at me, although they knew my successful record over the years. Today, it is a reality. You have seen this target a few days ago. That is, about 328% in 10 years or 32.8% in USD terms per year. Show me single investment which gave so much of safe and secure return in 10 years in US$ terms.(without being leveraged)
One should not expect day trading or Futures/options recommendations here. I therefore avoid voicing opinion on this subject.
Abhyasi
7 Dec 09 at 11:01 PM
Dear Kalidasji..
I am currently following the saying.. BUY when others fear n SELL when others chase..
taking this saying same for GOLD..
Last time on 27th-30th Nov you mentioned 1185 is the Support/Resistance for GOLD, i bought some Gold when it was around $1177/oz currently it is trading at $1140/oz after making a low of $1135/oz;
Can you please let us know what is the next Support level for GOLD so that we can plan to Add more around that price?
Best Regards,
Sreeram, UK
Kalidas Says ….Monday, December 07, 2009
Follow 35:85 numbers. 1185, 1135. 1085 and so on. It is better to buy today rather than waiting for too long
Sreeram, UK
7 Dec 09 at 6:13 AM
Dear sir
As you mentioned before, today (7th-Monday) Gold slashed around 4.4% and I bought Gold ETF around 40gms. Do you expect some more correction in near future? If so I can add more quantity.
Saarika
Bangalore
Kalidas Says ….Monday, December 07, 2009
You did the right thing. Today is perhaps the last day of correction. But you never know. I would buy now because the gold is down by 9% from Thursday level.
Read my STOP PRESS on the main article. It will answer everything.
Saarika
7 Dec 09 at 5:42 AM
Dear Anil Ji,
My brother is working in an IT company in USA and following your predictions on Gold, I suggested him to convert part of his savings into GOLD for which he purchased around 4 troy ounce from APMEX at an average of around $1050. Sometime back you suggested that Gold will rise much higher in the USA as compared to India for many reasons. Since, his ultimate aim will be to bring his savings back to India, will it be sensible to sell back his Gold to APMEX and bring the USD procees to India or sell his Gold here in India since value of INR may appreciate against USD and defeat the overall purpose of cashing on the gain on Gold?
Also, will appreciate if you could guide in general, if he should retain part of his savings in USD cash or remitt that to India for the possible loss of INR appreciating against USD in future, since he is afraid for security reasons to hold more of physical Gold in his home in USA.
I am not sure if he would end up paying some customs duty to bring back 4 troy ounce of Gold to India.
Thanks for your reply in anticipation.
Regards,
Anurag Agarwal
Noida
Kalidas Says ….Monday, December 07, 2009
1. Retain the gold in USA and sell there itself. He will have more control over it. He can send dollar by TT/Cash or any other means.
2. for the time being, INR may not appreciate much. Watch for the Rupee convertibility. When it is fully convertible, which may take minimum 3 years, then only Rupee may rise faster. Until such time, be comfortable
3. If he does not like to hold physical gold in USA, he may as well sell it and open Goldmoney (Goldmoney.com) or bullionvault.com (in USA). He can keep the gold there.
If he wish to deal with the bank, he may as well try with bank like First State Depository llc which is Delaware based storage company where you can store the gold physically. You do not have to buy through them as pre-condition. The website is http://www.fsdepository.com/ . You can buy from any source and send it to them for storage purpose.
Visit other website which you easily google.
Anurag
7 Dec 09 at 5:41 AM
just because it is still a very cheap stock which i can hold but only if it has the potential to grow more.
bilal
7 Dec 09 at 3:18 AM
Anil Sir,
I just randomly came across this stock while surfing on net Scanpoint Geomatics Ltd.(526544),This stock has multiplied 18 times in past one year is this a good stock to invest and for what time horizon ?
The CMP is 41.20 .52weekH\L being 47.85\2.15
http://www.scanpointgeomatics.com
Im sorry i missed my name n details in earlier post, You can delete that one.
Bilal
Delhi,India
Kalidas Says ….Monday, December 07, 2009
No comments. I do not follow the named stocks. If I form an opinion later, I might send you an email.
Further, why do you want to buy a stock which has risen 18 times?
bilal
7 Dec 09 at 1:00 AM
Thank you very much for your advise on Essar oil, IFCI sir, many times with confusion mind I didn’t buy when IFCI was at below 45. So I needed your clear answer, thats what gives me confidence.
Regards,
Krishna
Hyderabad
Krishna
6 Dec 09 at 11:22 PM
Sir
Whats your view on purchase of 1 KG gold certificates from UOB. The spread between buy and sell rate is SGD 100 with a SGD 5 for certificate charges and SGD 30 p.a for maintenance charges prorated monthly.
The advantage is to circumvent the GST applicable in singapore. The disadvantage is that this is not backed by physical gold and in the case the bank gets into trouble and goes into liquidation the gold deposits takes lower priority compared to savings deposits
http://www.uob.com.sg/personal/investments/treasury/precious_metals.html
Thanks
Bobby, Singapore
Kalidas Says ….Monday, December 07, 2009
It is okay. You know the plus and minuses. Singapore banking system is generally sound and the supervision effective. If you have not heard anything against UOB, it may be a good substitute for physical gold (They also sell it). May be you can convert into physical gold later within same bank, and in that case, they may not charge you GST because it is mere conversion from one asset class to another.
If you want to buy such large quantity, better buy only in correction. When the gold is in negative territory during the day, you buy it at that time.
Bobby
6 Dec 09 at 8:12 PM
Sir with your due permission.
For Santhosh,
Check with GRT Jewelers Jayanagar Bangalore. Branch of G.R. Thanga Maligai Chennai. Probably well known Golddealers in south india.( They are number one in Chennai. I doubt any other city consumes gold as much as Chennai consumes. It is City of Gold for india like Dubai for the world.) Though I had no intension of buying I checked the prices with them on Saturday. They had 1 ounce coins and were ready to give it for 1795 +1% VAT.
Shiva
Bangalore
shiva
6 Dec 09 at 5:47 PM
Dear Sir,
This is post to fellow boarders particularly from Bangalore. I am planning to purchase some 200gm of Gold bullion (bar) for investment purpose. If someone knows or has experience with most authentic and fair value dealer located in Bangalore who can sell as well as buy Gold bullion, please refer. I could get few bullion dealers from ‘just dial’ but not sure which one is the most authentic and reliable.
Thanks,
-Santosh.
Bangalore.
Santosh
6 Dec 09 at 11:53 AM
Hello Sir,
I bought 100gm of 24c Gold @ 18546 per 10gm from Tribhuvan Dass Bhim Jee Zaveri’s shop located Janpath, New Delhi 110001. I bought it on Saturday when Gold price was 1162 $ and $ was as 46.15. On the same day Tanishq ( Tata owned jewelery chain ) was selling at 20605/-. Tribuvan Das BJZ is very reputed in this area and I hope that I got the genuine Gold. As per your calculator I paid 400-500 more than the fair price.
Regards, Naresh Kumar, Faridabad
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, December 06, 2009
No need to worry. TBJ is the most reputed dealer. I presume you bought the Invoice so VAT was included. Since you bought on Saturday, there may be little mark up due to exchange and gold market being closed on that day.
Further, you do not have to take exchange rate at 46.15 but 46.38 because 46.15 is the interbank rate whereas you have to take customer-bank rate which is higher by 0.25% to 0.5% max. that is 46.15 + 0.23 = 46.38.
It may be noted that I have omitted one important cost – Transportation or Courier fees. When one imports from overseas, he has to pay for the transportation too. Since I was not certain how much a person would incur, I did not include it. Normally, gold is imported by Air. The import of gold is channelized through MMTC, so the actual importer may be paying some charges towards transportation to MMTC which I am not able to guess.
Nevertheless, difference over parity by 2% is acceptable. The very purpose of FGPC (Fair Gold Price Calculator) was to help you negotiate with the gold dealer to reduce the price if it is unfair. Once the dealer knows that you know how to calculate the cost, he will come down to charge you near fair price.
Good luck to your gold investment.
Naresh Kumar
6 Dec 09 at 8:12 AM
Sir,
I want to know the future of IFCI and Essar oil for one year investment. Please advice me. I would invest 2-3 lakhs rupees.
Regards,
Krishna
Hyderabad
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, December 06, 2009
I would bet on Essar Oil more than IFCI. Both are good to invest, but please remember my strong view that the markets are way too high. Any correction in the market will bring down these stocks. IFCI is more vulnerable to weak market.
You may allocate Rs 2 lakhs in Essar Oil 500 shares, Essar Shipping 1000 shares now.
I would not invest in IFCI now as strategy. However, of late the stock is strong. If you still want to have something of IFCI now, better buy 600 right now at current level but be prepared to sell with 15% to 30% up target. This time it may go to late sixties or mid seventies. You will need to be fast to get out at that time without blinking your eyes.
Krishna
6 Dec 09 at 1:55 AM
Is it worth to buy Unitech at this level?
CMP: 88.05 (04.12.2009)
52 Week High: 116.65
52 Week Low: 21.65
M Anbarasu,
Madurai, Tamil Nadu, India.
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, December 06, 2009
I do not follow Real Estate stocks. No opinion on this counter.
M Anbarasu
6 Dec 09 at 1:19 AM
I don’t know whether to post this query here or not. And this query is not about economy, finance or markets. Just to know your view about India I am posting here.
Is India (on a whole) growing or swelling (growth in few areas)?
PRESENT LEVEL OF EDUCATION IN INDIA:
The Literates in India is just 66%. The opportunities to complete Higher Secondary Education (Final stage in school) are available only for 23% of students. And only 12% gets chances to continue their education in college level.
The National Knowledge Commission, in its research says that the above level is because of lack of colleges and universities in India.
The John Hopkins University in America spends 8100 crores for it research work in 2008. But the entire Government of India spends 7321 crores for its research work in the same year.
There is no place for a single university of India in world’s top 100 universities. Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai stood at 163 in this race and IIT, Delhi gets 181st place. (Source: Survey by Times – QS)
The Ex. Union Minister of Health and family welfare compelled the students in medical field to serve at least 2 years in villages so that they can get their degrees. The entire medical students protested against him. This shows the selfishness and lack of humanity in Indian minds.
These are some examples of the big problem. This is the present level of education (the backbone of any country) in India.
MY PERSONAL VIEW: Right from the primary level the Indian education system sows the selfishness and slavery thoughts in the Indian minds.
As there is a problem in the foremost sector (Education) itself no other problems of India are said here.
Those who says that India is developing and will become a developed nation in 2020 just watches only the metropolitan cities, corporations and some developed cities of India. No one has mind to see the towns, villages and tribes.
May my views and details posted here be wrong. And if it is wrong kindly say me the real level of India on a whole.
Eagerly waiting for your valuable reply.
M Anbarasu,
Madurai, Tamil Nadu, India.
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, December 06, 2009
This is really not generally a topic suitable for this forum. It is general discussion. Do not pose queries of such nature in future because they do not benefit the investors anyway. Please limit your queries to investment oriented subjects. I am answering out of courtesy.
Literacy rate of 66% is significantly high. The education up to HSC or SSS level is either totally free or heavily subsidized. If some families do not send their children to schools even for free education due to family exigencies, we can not find fault with the government.
Further, female education right up to University level is free. The government at the most provide opportunities – it can not issue whip command to make some one study.
There are enough colleges and schools in India. The difficulty is in “reservation” policy and “insistence of donation” while seeking admission to institutions. Such crime is committed openly and many ministers are themselves allocating land to themselves at fraction of the price, obtain all subsidies and then take donations from all level of students running into few thousands to several lakhs for medical and MBA education. The education is affordable,almost free but such “corruption cost” is unaffordable. Such heavy cost make every student corrupt because he has to repay sooner or later. The trouble is that the educated mass is illiterate – they never voice their displeasure, strong protest or mass movements to arrest such trends.
Why should Minister exhort the medical students to spend 2 years in villages – why not the same minister take action in stopping donations of several lakhs being paid by these very students by way of educational loans at 10% or more interest.? A friend of mine paid Rs 18 lakhs for donation for his girl to take on medical education. The interest for 2 years will come to hefty Rs 360,000. Who will pay for it if the said medical student has to go to village to serve for 2 years? Why not same minister take initiative to set up medical colleges away from cities or towns to small villages – it will cost the government almost 70% less compared to cities. The fault lies there, not with the protesting students. Can you stop the practice of donations to medical colleges where these protesting students had to pay corruption cost of Rs 20 to 40 lakhs of rupees?
Further, the quality of free education is spoiling girls. Read every wedding related classifieds in TOI and other newspapers – the parents of such girls stipulate conditions of independent homes, to stay separately after marriage etc.
This is why health care costs are rising in India. When a student comes out of medical college, he or his family has Rs 30 lakhs of debts which he has to service or repay. He will then ask his patients to go for various tests, X rays, Cardiograms, CT Scan, MRI or surgical procedures which were not even necessary at first place. The doctors have therefore become pimps only due to “donation costs” being levied on them when they were just honest students. They are corrupted at the very entry level. Do not blame these students who become doctors later on. They are the “result”, not the “cause”.
Do not compare expenses of John Hopkins with that of India. In research fields, the main cost is salary. They pay 10 times what they pay in India. So India’s spending of Rs 7,321 croes is equivalent to at least Rs 50,000 crores by American rupee terms – we are therefore spending more on research than United States in real and practical terms.
Forget those rankings of Universities. They never count in real world. IIT being ranked 163 still produced the students like Narayanmurthy and hundreds of others in Infosys, one of the finest and modern IT firm.
Ranking and ratings are the pastime of magazines like Forbes, Fortune, Moody’s and S&P. They still rank Citigroup, AIG and US governments as near AAA credit level compared to even India as state or Reliance as a company who are rated BBB or just about investment grade.
Such statistics are meant for statisticians.
M Anbarasu
6 Dec 09 at 1:15 AM
dear anilji
I am interested in buying gold about 200 to 300 grams in Hyderabad. Which is the best place IN HYDERABAD to buy GOLD (other than through banks). Last time(about 6 months back of course a small quantity – 10 grams, I bought through MMTC. Do you recommend buying through MMTC or suggest a better place to buy.
Suresh
Hyderabad
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, December 06, 2009 Spell check your message before you post. Also ensure that the words are properly capitalized.
Search Engine “justdial.com” returned following results:
Riddhi Siddhi Bullions Ltd
6-3-883/F-1,Kalanikethan Wedding Mall,
Near Somajigud Circle,
Begumpet Road,
Somajiguda, Hyderabad – 500082
+(91)-(40)-40044222 Contact: Mr Shekar G
Website: http://www.rsbl.co.in
Arbuda Gold
3-3-32, Subhash Road,
Pan Bazar,
Hyderabad – 500003
+(91)-(40)-27846554 Mobile: +(91)-93 967 72161
CAUTION & DISCLAIMER:Please note that I do not know them. I do not give any guarantee whatever. It is your responsibility to check their credentials. I am just informing you of the source as you asked. Further, buy only from their official business location and nowhere else.
SURESH
6 Dec 09 at 1:02 AM
Sir,
RPL Dadri plan gets court rap
http://www.livemint.com/2009/12/04234737/RPL-Dadri-plan-gets-court-rap.html?h=A1
I have made exposures in this RNRL scrip, Your urgent comments will help the confidence to stay put or get out booking losses.
Regards
Ranjana
Delhi
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, December 06, 2009
Look, Anil Ambani had angered Central Government by openly criticizing its role. This is why the Central Government has become vindictive. It is using every means to harass Anil Ambani and in fact is trying to teach him a lesson by utilizing other government agencies like FCCB control board etc who penalized Anil Ambani’s companies with heaviest penalty on record Rs 120 crores on borrowing of Rs 1200 crores (almost 10% – unheard of). The Central Government appears to be influencing Supreme Court to defer or postpone its decision and using such bought out time to carry out all administrative actions against ADAG group of companies by finding one fault or the other.
It has decided to use Allahabad Court to rule against RPower’s land acquisition which was legal for 5 years. The ruling itself is poor. The construction of giant power plants is for public purpose – because only general public is going to benefit – in fact – millions of people. Without power there could not be even industry. However, Allahabad Court has limited the definition of “public purpose” only for “public sector” which argument will not hold good in Supreme Court. All listed companies are “Public Limited Companies” and therefore public companies for all practical record. The ruling of Allahabad Court will be challenged by the RPOWER in Supreme Court – they have 30 days to do so. They will do it, but the ADAG group will be in limbo.
It is also likely that the dispute between Anil and Mukesh may degenerate into physical violence of worst type. I would not be surprised if one of them tries to eliminate the other by violent means. You understand what I mean. This is why I always detest in investing into companies having internal strife between warring brothers or family factions.
Mukesh is surely a greatest “idiot” I have ever seen. He is doing something which is a “shameless spectacle” and involves in an act unbecoming or unworthy of a blood brother. He has forgotten a basic rule of nature that “blood is thicker than water”. He is trying to isolate his own blood by taking help of pimp politicians. Harvard or other Business Schools do not teach family values. He will learn hard way. He is increasingly becoming “immoral”. His steps, thinking, policies, actions and days are in “regressive directions”
However, considering the fact that the government is hell bent on favoring Mukesh Ambani, harassing Anil Ambani in every possible way, financially, administratively and socially, and using every government agency to line up against him, lead me to believe that “Mukesh Ambani has bought out entire Government of India machinery and judiciary with possible exception of Supreme Court”.
As result, it will be difficult to get favorable result from Supreme Court soon. The longer the delay in Supreme Court judgment, longer will be depressed ADAG group of companies regardless of the fact they are right and fully justified in holding up the fight against MDAG and Government.
This is a clear evidence yet of “CORRUPT INDIA” at the highest level. It is better for the time being to reduce the exposure to entire stable of ADAG group of companies by 70% and retain balance as strategic stake. We are after all investors and have to go where the wind blows.
Switch for the time being from RNRL to Essar Shipping, from Rpower to Essar Oil. In short term, such swap will work. You are merely switching from one stock to another, both trading at about similar level. It is just a change in name in book entries. Do it.
Ranjana
5 Dec 09 at 9:42 PM
Dear Kalidas,
Will RCOM and RNRL take a hit because of Allahabad High Court Order on Land Acquisition?
Rajesh, Chennai.
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, December 06, 2009
Read my reply to Ranjana in this column today itself
Rajesh Kannan
5 Dec 09 at 12:31 PM
Dear Sir,
I want to invest in physical silver.
In case of gold, jewellers in my area (mumbai) are charging Rs.600 in addition to Gold price for physical Gold (which comes out to be approx 3.33% considering gold at Rs18000).
However, I am finding difficulty in locating jeweller who sells physical silver.
I shall be pleased if you can tell me various options available to buy physical silver in Mumbai. Also mention how much extra money I shall be charged per kg for physical Silver. I want to buy silver worth Rs 75-100 thousand.
Regards,
Meghana
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, December 06, 2009
Use this search engine – http://www.justdial.com which often gives the good result. According to this the following dealers could be possible suppliers:
Riddhi Siddhi Bullions Ltd
5-A Trishala Bldg 122, Zaveri Bazar, Sheikh Memon Street, Masjid, Mumbai – 400003
Contact Persons: Mukesh Bhora,Mr Lalit Jain
+(91)-(22)-6161 8619 ; +(91)-(22)-2341 8884
Website: http://www.rsbl.co.in
Their description:
While above is selling Silver bars in 5Kg and 30Kg LBMA bars (LBMA = London Bullion Market Association) which means that they are known as “good delivery bars” used for silver settlements.
Following dealer sells the Silver bars in 1 kgs and above weights – all of 0.999 quality:
CAUTION & DISCLAIMER: Please note that I do not know them. I do not give any guarantee whatever. It is your responsibility to check their credentials. I am just informing you of the source as you asked. Further, buy only from their official business location and nowhere else.
Meghana
5 Dec 09 at 9:26 AM
Sorry if my post on 4 Dec was not clear. You recommended to invest in Australian dollars for nri’s. Now interest rate on AUD increased to 6.21% from 5.95%. Thanks for your advice.
Kalidas Says …. Saturday, December 05, 2009
You are in best currency at the moment.
Shiva Kumar
5 Dec 09 at 1:31 AM
Dear Sir,
My total Gold accumulation target is 400-500 gms and I have bought about 80 gms gold bar this week and I was planning to buy about 100 to 120 gms more next week. Will you advice me to go ahead, especially when Gold spot and Feb both closed above 20 DMA of $1154 ?
Thanks.
Anil, Nagpur, India.
Kalidas Says …. Saturday, December 05, 2009
The day is not over yet in India. Gold dropped for wrong reaosons yesterday. Japan was concerned at Yen’s level at 86 so started buying dollar to weaken yen, By coincidence, the job numbers were out which were not spectacular. Most of job additions were of temporary nature in government sector. However, dollar’ strength due to Japan’ a action was wrongly interpreted as signs of economy’s bullishness. Please note that stocks did not rise with so called good news. The money started rotating between Gold, $ Index and Yen. Th fall was wrongly analyzed. The sell off may be corrected. Buy some silver also because it is building solid base for upward rally. It mauy outperform gold in medium term.
Buy 60 grams of gold today. In India, it is quoted at Rs 17,650 (Rs 700 down) in thin trading and Silver Rs 29000 (Rs 1000 down).
If Gold does not rebound in Australian, Japan and Asian trading, there could be margin related calls to have some selling in the morning which will dry up as the day progresses. It is better to buy some more (40 grams) on Monday if it is down.
The gold down 4% in US$ terms, but yen weakened by 4.5% against dollar, so gold prices remained same in Japan.
Dr. Anil
4 Dec 09 at 9:37 PM
Kalidasji,
It seems FED officials are finally feeling the heat of the rising gold and they may be forced to take some quick decisions like maybe hiking interest rates. Bernanke is reeling under high pressure from the senators. Maybe that explains the 4 % correction in gold today and it might correct more.
Here’s the link
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34279730
hhh
Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, December 06, 2009
You are right. Bernanke will go soon.
hhh
4 Dec 09 at 8:21 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
Today Gold has dropped to $1187 (approx. by 2.5%).
Is this what you meant, when you said on November 30 that the Gold may correct a bit today or tomorrow. Or does this have no relation to it & hence needs bit more attention?
BTW, I am curious to know why you mentioned then that Gold may correct a bit. Is this in relation to rise in Gold from 11Dec or so (again mentioned by you)?
With Best Regards
BV. Mumbai, India.
Kalidas Says …. Saturday, December 05, 2009
I do not get your question well. 1185 was the support/resistance point. When it was exceeded without much consolidation, some correction to that level was expected by me. When the critical level is reached, some try to force it down below that level to see whether the buyers emerge. If they do, they get away fast.
This is why the gold corrected to almost 1171 and then rebounded. it is trading at about 1175/76 at the time of this writing. In all probability, it should close above 1185 but slightly below 1200 at the end of the day. Today being Friday, the market may be thin. Today, is the very good time to buy. It is always good time to buy in correction.
The gold dropped to 1150 and then rebounded. Silver was slow to rebound. The major drop in gold appears to be not due to job numbers but buying of USD by Japan. They bought dollar to push the dollar down from 86+ to 90+. What happened was that the job numbers came at the same time of Japanese intervention.
Since dollar was rising , it was presumed that it was more due to job numbers which forced the selling of gold. It was wrong reasons that pushed the gold down. It was triangular actions. Dollar up-Yen down – gold down. The money was rotating between these 3 elements – Dow did not go higher – which means that money released from gold were not used up in the stocks.
BV
4 Dec 09 at 9:33 AM
Sir,
Gold has corrected today to $1192. Is this because some banks are repaying the TARP funds back to the FED?
Thank you,
Ravi,Chennai,India
Kalidas Says …. Friday, December 04, 2009
No, it is dollar strength due to job data. From where BOA is going to bring in $45 billions? Last time, they stated that General Motors will repay over $ 1.6 billions in December, and then it emerged that GM will be freshly financed to that extent. So new borrowing replaces the old one – where is the real repayment?
Gold was going up continuously, so it is a healthy correction. I have informed earlier that 1185 was the consolidation level. After a while it will resume its upward trend. Even today, it may end up above $ 1200 from currently 1191 level.
If you want to buy it, just buy it now. 1185 to 1192 is good range to enter into.
Ravi
4 Dec 09 at 7:49 AM
Anil Sir,
Interesting Video to watch.
Senator Jim Bunning grill Ben Bernanke over the Fed’s miserable performance under Bernanke.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/12/senator-bunning-to-bernanke-you-are.html
I think Senator Mr.Jim Bunning might be interested in your book “Sub-Prime resolved”.
Thanks
Jana
Bangalore.
Kalidas Says …. Friday, December 04, 2009
Never trust politicians. I sent my book to Sen MaCain, Gov. Bobby Jindal, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, with no response. I also never got any response to my letter to Pres. Obama, Vice Pres. Biden, First Lady Michelle Obama
or response from Wall Street Journal, Barrons, Investors Business Daily, New York Times, Washington Post, LA times, Yale University, Harvard, Wharton, Cornell Univ etc. I have sent over 62 copies to various universities, press, politicians etc in Hong Kong, India, UK , Europe and USA and got acknowledgement from 3 or 4.
Sometime I wonder, if they don’t bother, why should I?
Americans care about themselves. They simply do not care for others. Even if you try to care for them in troubles, they do not seem to like it. It is a country of Superman, Super woman and Batman. Americano Supremo! is what they believe. We are counted nothing.
Jana
4 Dec 09 at 4:32 AM
Dear Kalidasjee
I’d posted a query last month regarding donating to a noble cause every month. I await your response on that.
Aditya,
Mumbai – India
Kalidas Says …. Friday, December 04, 2009 ‘I think I replied already. Let me check
Aditya
4 Dec 09 at 3:50 AM
Respected sir
I do ask apology for not appearing on the blog for a long period, but I used to read your comment silently. As we all are addicted to your comments, which are like a daily dose of pill without which life can not move on further.Your efforts towards improving the site is highly appreciated specially download section i.e. CMCA 08-09.Earlier I used to save complete web page for CMCA at different intervals .Now I have downloaded all of them with in few minutes from download section. I have already sent payment details for the book kindly dispatch the same with your autograph.
kd chahar Ghaziabad India
Kalidas Says …. Friday, December 04, 2009
Welcome back. Are you flying a plane – say F16 or higher? Take me to the sky one day.
The book has been dispatched. so also the Autograph. Thanks for your order.
kd chahar
4 Dec 09 at 3:37 AM
Now interest rate on AUD increased by 25 basis points. This is due to inflation fears it seems. I am planning to open a fixed deposit. The best way to invest by sending a draft from overseas than convert NRE rupees account. Shall I wait for some time or I can open it now?
Shiva Kumar
Doha
Qatar.
Kalidas Says …. Friday, December 04, 2009
Do not understand your question. Tell me clearly what you want to do
Shiva Kumar
4 Dec 09 at 12:35 AM
Anil Sir,
I sold my portfolio around 60% after your last sell call. I’m not going to buy any stock other than Gold ETF till the situation improves. But I wanted to watch & keep analysing some stocks which will perform better in the future say 5 years. I know it’s very hard for you to give such stock details before market crash. But I would like to keep track of these future potential stocks.
stocks in my radar is
PetronetLNG, Cairn, Abhishek Industries Ltd, Arvind, Geodesic.
Thanks
Jana
Bangalore.
Jana
4 Dec 09 at 12:03 AM
Sir,
Please give some input, I am eagerly waiting for it.
========================================
Hello Sir,
Thanks for all the guidance.
I am a silent follower, and most of my money is invested as per your advice (equally between FDs, Mutual Funds, Gold ETF, UCO, RNRL, RPOW)
I recently purchased a Studio Aprtmanet as an Investment option in Greater Noida. They are still not very popular in North India, but it seems the future is good.
I have 2 Queries:
1. Your views on the future of Studio Apartment (rental Income etc)
2. Can I invest some money for very short term in Gold (till Jan), I had some cash in hand due for my next instalment of this studio Partment (considering the spike in gold you are talking about in Dec).
Thank you in advance
Regards,
Ashish
Delhi
Kalidas Says …. Friday, December 04, 2009
1. I do not know about your place, but generally, the studio apartment become popular choice in migrating population especially, bachelors who got job in the host city. In a city like Hong Kong, Gweilos (Americans, British, Europeans) normally rent such apartment and pay above average rent. There could be misuse also.
Noida is a place, which to my knowledge, is inviting lot of companies from overseas. If you find single population from those countries (generally consultants, journalists, representatives etc) increasing, then it may work well. Otherwise, even small family will detest it. You may get above average rent provided you do not stipulate restrictions like “Don’t” drink, non veg foods etc. You may get 9% yield on average with minimum 6%
2. Answer is No. Stay with cash if your requirements is in less than 3 months
Ashish Khurana
3 Dec 09 at 11:54 PM
Dear Sir,
Can you please reply to my query posted above dated 1 Dec. You have missed my query and moved on to next ones.
Thanks
Raju, Delhi, India
Kalidas Says …. Friday, December 04, 2009
Yes, your query was not specific, did not give full details. Anyway, my reply is posted under your enquiry of 1/12
Raju
3 Dec 09 at 9:45 PM
Sir,
I have purchased gold today on Apmex 0.9999 pure 20 X 5gm bar with total prize of $4094.55 it is coming around Rs.19000/10 gm is this good decision ?
Thanks,
Tushar,
USA.
Kalidas Says …. Friday, December 04, 2009
It has cost you US$ 1273.36 per ounce because you bought very small denomination. Always buy in multiples of ounce if it is for investment. UNLESS you want to take it to India for eventual sale where multiples of 10 grams is generally in vogue. However, due to rising prices, multiples of 5 grams will make sense.
Nevertheless, the price is about 4 to 5% higher than international price, depending on what was the market price at the time of buying.
ALL READERS should inform me not only the buying price but also the market price at the time of their buy action. Otherwise, how would I answer whether the Reader’s price was justified or not?
In Rupee terms, you may be affected by 1.5% due to rise in rupee (46.03 against 46.77) in India. If the rupee weakens, you benefit. When you are in USA, do not count in Rupee. US dollar is your currency.
Also, avoid asking question whether you did the right thing after making purchase. You bought it after lot of consideration, and you are buying “Gold” not trash. Have faith in you.
Tushar
3 Dec 09 at 1:47 PM
Dear Sir,
Thanks for the book,now I await your signature to add the cherry on top.
I have 2 queries and require your help / reassurance.
1) I work in a BPO and going by your view on the economy of the world, many big Banks and exposed companies are likely to fall. This creates a negative for the BPO’s that have outsourced business from these banks / institutions. While at the same time more companies will be forced to cut costs and improve their cash flows and hece will be forced to outsource. Which do you think is more likely to drive the direction of BPO’s.
2) I exited all the mutual funds after your sell call. I was anyway going to after understanding how these can be manipulated. I have moved 25% into Monthly income scheme. (post office scheme) at 8% for 5 yrs and 25% into Gold ETF’s remaining 50% in cash. Could you let me know your opinion on the the post office MIS scheme.
Thanks,Varghese,Pune
Kalidas Says …. Friday, December 04, 2009
I agree with your views under (1). BPO will be affected to some extent. This is a system business. Without sales, no company will have profit. This will be cut off as last measure, not first measure. Further, once a company is on BPO, it will remain on BPO. It is difficult to change for them. They are not going to get even laid off American workers at Indian employees’ cost. I am neutral on BPO related business. It is almost recession proof
Stay with the position where you are. Try to be stock specific in future. If some stocks become a bargain due to sudden shock, get into them after analyzing basics – you do not have to be rocket scientist to know the situation to the nut and bolt.
Nothing wrong with the Post Office MIS scheme, However, I prefer banks to Post Office because of convenience. Still nothing wrong.
Spell check your message first before posting. I don’t like to read erratic messages.
Thanks for ordering my book. Post your comments once you have read it.
varghese
3 Dec 09 at 1:38 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
What is “Short Covering” ? How to identify that heavy short covering will come in any particular stock ? Pl. explain in detail.
- Ramesh, Mumbai, India.
Ramesh
3 Dec 09 at 10:47 AM
Kalidasji,
With reference to your comments on currency reverse split – is such a scenario possible in India?
Also another query – its possible for me to put foreign currency fixed deposit in Singapore, so is it a wise decision to have some fixed deposit in Australian Dollar currency?
This option is over and above my current investments done so far.
Regards,
Atul
Singapore
Kalidas Says …. Thursday, December 03, 2009
not in immediate future. It happens when the currency is printed in greater proportion to assets. US, Japan and China will have that problem. Both Japan and China were printing their own currency out of budget deficits and buying dollars. People only see they have “dollars”. No one bothered how those dollars were bought.
So, both Japan and China were buying US dollars by printing more and more their own currencies out of budget deficits and US was supplying them dollars by printing in Fed printing press out of trillions of budget and trade deficits. In banking terms, it is known as “kite flying”.
When black money became menace in India in 1978, the thousand rupee notes were cancelled and substituted by newer notes – some people lost large amount. Those who held officially, did not lose of course, but that % was less.
In recent years, Russian Roubles went all the way to 2400 or 2500 to $ from 8. The Russians than cancelled the old roubles and converted old 100 or about in 1 new rouble. What you see the Rouble to $ rate of 28 is after 100:1 to reverse split.
Australian Dollar is the best currency to invest now. Please note that only English speaking country’s currencies are liquid. USD, GBP, AUS$, NZ$, South African Rand, Indian Rupee – what is common factor – they are all English speaking countries. We know more about these countries because of ABC, CBS, NBC, CNBC, BBC, Fox News, Sky News, DD, Zee, Star News etc – all English channels – so we remain more active in those countries. What do you know of Japan or Germany – nothing.
Atul
3 Dec 09 at 9:20 AM
Hello Kalidasji,
Please do not say you are doing a thankless job.
Many of us thank you many times without writing on here since you only mentioned sometime back that do not post thank you messages.
I myself followed you most of the times and few times did not.
I have averaged my IFCI at 18 rupees to bring down average price from 58 to 35 and sold at 50 on your call – A very good profit.
Entered Satyam at average 76 and sold at 110 – Very good profit.
Got LICHF at 270 and sold at 390 – did not followed you for hold still got a good profit.
Hindalco entered at 85 and sold at 110 on your call – Earned good profit.
Losers always need somebody to blame so please do not bother if somebody blames you.
I am reading you from past 2 years and what I earned is huge knowledge.
My attitude is changed towards investment and I have started respecting money.
No B school or college in this world will teach what you taught us.
I have been applying many principles you have taught while buying stocks, land, gold, flat.
There are many silent readers like me who are benefited enormously by your knowledge that is enough for our entire life.
Warm regards,
Prashant
Chennai, India.
Kalidas Says …. Thursday, December 03, 2009
Let us stop this controversy. It was just casual statement from me – nothing more. Further, my calls need not be necessarily perfect. Even if the God descends on BSE or NSE, he is certain to make wrong calls at times – whereas I am human. Some people benefit, some lose. If someone loses more profit, he has not lost. No one can claim the peak price all the time. There is only one person at the top, not thousands of investors. Let us not discuss this subject further. We all have better things to do.
Prashant
3 Dec 09 at 8:31 AM
I have reposted the question although it is showing under the Confused Mind, Clear Answers (09-12)
I am planning to buy a house here in UK and wanted your advice on mortgage options. I have 2 options, Option one is a tracker rate which is currently charging 4.79% pa and is linked to the Bank of England base rate, i.e. the rate will go up if the base rate goes up. Option 2 is a fixed rate mortgage for 4 year at 5.99% p.a.
The spread that the bank is charging for tracker rate is currently too high (nearly 4.29%) but the expectation is that the spread will gradually come down when the Bank of England start increasing base rate. I am expecting that the Bank of England will start increasing base rate in near future so am more inclined to go for fixed rate mortgage. You opinion would be highly valuable in guiding me as it is a big long term commitment for me.
Regards
Goel
London
UK
Kalidas Says …. Friday, December 04, 2009
Sorry I made an error. I saw your post under Gold $6400 so asked you to change it. There must be some bug.
The fixed rate mortgage is only for 4 years. Had it been 20 years, I would have said yes. 4 years is too short period to take that loan at higher rate.
Tracker rate (I am using your terms – I do not know much) or floating rate if you mean may not rise much due to tremendous pressure on the British government to keep the rate low. At least for 2 years, the rise in rate in Britain appear a remote possibility would therefore prefer floating rate or tracker rate, because you derive almost 1.20% per year which can save GBP 1200 per year per 100000.
Goel_uk
3 Dec 09 at 2:51 AM
Kalidasji,
Where to buy South African Rand zero coupon bonds in California? What percentage you recommend? Is this the right time to buy zero coupoun bonds?
Regards
Suma, Detroit, USA
Kalidas Says …. Friday, December 04, 2009
Spell check your message before you post. Also ensure that the words are properly capitalized and spaced (in two lines, I corrected 6 errors – what are you doing – you are in USA! Did you send message using IPOD or mobile phone?)
Why do you want to buy in California when you are in Detroit (Texas)? Anyway, try some international brokers in your area like
1. Morgan Stanley
2. Merrill Lynch (Bank of America)
3. Goldman Sach (if they entertain retail clients)
4. HSBC (in your state or some other state like New York or California
5. RBC Dominion Security (subsidiary of Royal Bank of Canada.
6. Any South African bank like Standard Bank, Nedbank anywhere in USA – call them up and find out. (Standard Bank is NOT Standard Chartered Bank)
6.Try your own bank’s security or bond trading division.
I would not know the brokers. You have to identify them in your country.
I can only show you product and its full details.
IS IT RIGHT TIME TO BUY ZERO COUPON BONDS?
Read my article again on the Zero coupon. It answers all questions. When you are buying on 20 to 25 years horizon, you take the advantage of weakness in currency or the bond prices. Only a few days ago, South African Rand was forced down by some manipulators by 10% – that was the best time. Since then, it has improved. As retail buyers, you may not have expertise or luxury to time the purchase. Such bonds are good buy at the moment, so just buy it. Look at them after 5 years.
% Allocation
Depending on your resources. If were you, I would invest at least 5% to 10% of my investment budget. Plan your and your children’s future. These 10% will grow several times – minimum 10 times.
if you are very active investor and enjoy trading, better keep your investment at minimum level (at very low level your broker may not be interested in handling your trade) or do not invest at all.
ZERO coupon bonds of South African Rand are meant for only long term investors. if you do not like Africa or South Africa, again, do not invest there. You must not invest where you could have slightest dislike of any kind – currency, country, product or even color. One must invest where he is comfortable.
suma
2 Dec 09 at 11:11 PM
Dear Kalidas ji,
A shakeup in future is due. And the reason being still billions of toxic assets have huge positions built on them, coupled with weak USD $.
Now if the inevitable happens, wealth is destroyed. Demand lowers, financial institutions go belly up resulting DEFLATION.
This would send all commodities down, including GOLD.
And probably the best time for short sellers to square off? YES….. so still this points to higher bullion price.
Pardon my ignorance, i intend to understand why the following is happening:
1.) Indian PM along with few global leaders continue to show faith in USD $
–> Is this like a consolation to the patient in ICU?
2.) Chinese media now have started to talk about a bubble in bullion.
–> Are they scared, people moving away from USD $ to much secure arena like GOLD, leaving them stranded with US junk bonds? (Although ratings are still way above junk)
3.) If there is no recovery, then i assume that all the printed trillions of USD, are finding their way in Equities. Hence emerging markets are not treading on their way down despite below average Quarterly results.
–> Does this mean that for sometime now, we can still see some influx of more foreign investments?
Wish you good health,
Girish, Pune (INDIA)
Girish
2 Dec 09 at 11:09 AM
Dear Kalidasji,
Can you please share your long term view and target for Cairn India, CMP- 289 ? Can I accumalate it in phase manner in corrections ?
I am finding it little difficult buying physical gold and hence have bought small quantity of 20 units Quantum Gold, will be increasing the quantity as possible , is this strategy OK for gold ?
regards,
Sonali
Frankfurt, Germany
Kalidas Says …. Friday, December 04, 2009
Yes, you may. Your strategy of gold fund is also okay. Go ahead. Cairn is also good for accumulation.
Sonali
2 Dec 09 at 9:38 AM
For Fellow Boarders info –
China’s double talk on Gold:
***********************
China c.bank: gold prices high, warns of bubble
(http://in.biz.yahoo.com/091202/137/bauorm.html)
Wednesday December 2, 06:00 PM
China c.bank: gold prices high, warns of bubble
Click to enlarge photo
TAIPEI (Reuters) – Gold prices are currently high and markets should be careful of a potential asset bubble forming, a senior official at China’s central bank said on Wednesday, as prices for the precious metal hit a record high.
“We must keep in mind the long-term effects when considering what to use as our reserves,” Hu Xiaolian, a vice-governor at the People’s Bank of China, told reporters in Taipei, when asked if China had plans to increase its gold holding in its foreign exchange reserves.
“We must watch out for bubbles forming on certain assets, and be careful in those areas.”
Gold hit record highs at $1,216.75 an ounce in Europe on Wednesday as investors bet on higher prices.
China’s more than $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves are mostly parked in U.S. treasuries, despite calls from some in China to invest the reserves in oil and other natural resources that the fast-growing Chinese economy will need in future.
Before gold prices hit record highs, however, China said last month that it is working to improve the allocation of assets in its foreign exchange reserves, when asked whether it would buy any of the gold that the International Monetary Fund is seeking to sell.
(Reporting by Roger Tung; Editing by Toby Chopra)
***********************
Best Regards
BV.
BV
2 Dec 09 at 8:50 AM
Dear fellow readers,
I live in Hong Kong and I had the opportunity to meet this great man yesterday who is helping everyone without asking for something in return. (I must admit at first I was a bit hesitant to meet him thinking that I will be intimidated by his power of knowledge).
I just started reading his book – Sub Prime Resolved – which explains in very simple terms the problem that is there in the system and most importantly the measures to take to solve it. A “confused mind” like me who doesn’t know much about investments could understand it easily.
I see some of you here feel obliged to give him something in return for the knowledge (and money) they are earning. I would suggest you all to buy this book, understand it, discuss it and spread the knowledge and finally change the system. If we can achieve this then I think that we have done something for ‘him’.
Suresh
2 Dec 09 at 8:37 AM
Author’s request:
Due to my error in pressing wrong keys, I inadvertently deleted your post. May I request you to repost the message again? Sorry to bother you.
MANIVANNAN K
26 Nov 09 at 2:44 am”
———————————–
Dear Sir,
Again, twice, I have posted the message on 27th Nov 2009. Today to my surprise,it is found not published in November series or even in December series.
I don’t know what is wrong. Please clarify. Yesterday, I had returned from Sabarimala. Shall I repost the comment once again?
The autograph sent by you has not yet reached my location. I need your personal ID for a private advise which I could not disclose in the public forum (I assure, I won’t disturb you, just like).
With regards,
Manivannan K.
Cuddalore-Tamilnadu
India
Kalidas Says …. Wednesday, December 02, 2009
It was already sent by AirMail on following day. If you do not receive it in next 3 days, I will send you again.
MANIVANNAN K
2 Dec 09 at 3:15 AM
Hello Sir,
Thanks for all the guidance.
I am a silent follower, and most of my money is invested as per your advice (equally between FDs, Mutal Funds, Gold ETF, UCO, RNRL, RPOW)
I recetly purchased a Studio Aprtmanet as an Investment option in Greater Noida. They are still not very popular in North India, but it seems the future is good.
I have 2 Queries:
1. Your views on the future of Studio Apartment (renatl Income etc)
2. Can I invest some money for very short term in Gold (till Jan), I had some cash in hand due for my next instalment of this studio Partment (considering the spike in gld you are talking about in Dec).
Thank yo in advance
Regards,
Ashish
Delhi
Ashish Khurana
2 Dec 09 at 2:39 AM
Hello Sir,
It seems China is getting more aggresive in terms of gold now after Dubai criris…
Dubai crisis gives China chance to buy oil, gold:
——————————————————
An official is quoted as saying China means to increase its gold reserves (last quoted at about 1054 tons) to 6000 tons in the next 3-5 years and perhaps 10,000 tons in the next 8-10 years.
Dubai’s debt crisis could be China’s opportunity to snap up gold and oil assets, a senior Chinese official said in remarks published on Monday. .
“That could give China a buying opportunity to put some forex reserves into gold or oil reserves,” Ji was quoted as saying by the paper, which is widely read by Chinese officials.
China’s $2.27 trillion in foreign exchange reserves are mostly parked in U.S. treasuries, despite calls from some in China to invest the reserves in oil and other natural resources that the fast-growing Chinese economy will need in future.
Regards
Parag, Dehradun
Parag
2 Dec 09 at 1:52 AM
kalidasji,
We are waiting for your Dec series on the topic.
Pdas
Bangalore
India
pdas
2 Dec 09 at 12:26 AM
Dear Sir,
The day Dubai world news came out, I got panicked and sold 90% of my stocks (STC, PowerGrid, Reliance Industrial Infra, Jai Corp, Horizon Infra etc). I was expecting the market and these stocks to fall at least 30%, so that I can re-enter into these counters. This sale has caused me a loss of nearly 40% on my capital. I have around 50K rupees investment in Gold ETF. I have got around 10 Lakh rupees from this sale and want to buy JaiCorp(2 lakhs) and your recommended stocks(8 Lakhs). I am not able to decide whether I should buy these stocks at current price or wait. These have already gone up by(10-15%) from my sale price. If I should wait, then how long? I don’t want to miss the rally while sitting with cash. Please guide. Please suggest 5 stcoks from your recommendation list where you see more appreciation and less risk in current market condition.
Thanks
Raju, Delhi, India
Kalidas Says …. Friday, December 04, 2009
Sorry for late reply – I missed it until you have reminded.
First of all, I do not follow any of your stocks. (Please mention full name instead of STC -I do not know who they are. You were in the high flying infras structure stocks entering at high level, because you sold at a loss of 40% and they are up only 10%. It means that if you buy them back, the loss could be reduced to 30%. Is this what it is.
Simply do not churn out vague numbers that I can not make head or tail out of it. You know my policy – when you seek specific guidance from me. you should also give me specific information such as Name of the stock, Purchase date. quantity, Price(Cost) sold price and CMP so. I have no time to figure out what your cost could be – I want to know the facts first.
This is the reason that I must have ignored your enquiry. May be you are confused, but not to the extent that you do not know your own position.
Further, you are kind of investor who reads the newspaper and acts on impulse without analyzing it. You bought high flying stocks without analyzing it and caring about the level. Also you sold the stocks based on Dubai event without analyzing it. if you really wanted to sell, you could have sold 50%, not all.
Since you have sold all, you are still at benefit. You have booked heavy losses that could be set off against profits that you may have booked. Supposing you sold the stock of Rs100 (cost) at Rs 60 (Loss 40%), and the said stock is trading at Rs 66 or 69 (up 10% or 15% from you sale level), and if you buy back , you are resuming your old position with book loss of only 31%, not real loss. The real loss is only 10% to 15%. Further, actual booking of loss of Rs 40 can save your short term profit tax @ 30% or Rs 12, whereas you are paying just Rs 6 to 9 more. You are still saving Rs 6 to Rs 3. Your after tax loss would be less than your actual loss. I am presuming that you have already made money elsewhere, otherwise this logic does not apply.
Please remember in future, that if your query does not have required details, it will be ignored.
Raju
1 Dec 09 at 11:59 PM
Thanks for your precious advice sir
I will take care of the errors in future
bilal
1 Dec 09 at 11:34 PM
Dear Sir,
Long time back you wrote that the day may come when there would be blood in the major brokerage houses. And that is the time to buy. Following link gives some indication that that day is not far away
)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ahD2WoDAL9h0
Shiva
Bangalore.
Kalidas Says …. Wednesday, December 02, 2009
It is unique to Goldman. It is now a bank and will keep pistol or gun to protect it. This firm has bankrupted United States government and economy. It is a long story.
The day of reckoning has not come yet. When it becomes mass event, then only we can say that the time has probably come. This is a singular event. The only thing is that GS is coming into more scrutiny and feeling lot of heats lately.
Its Henry Paulson made US government dole out over $ 150 billions to save AIG who owed GS over $ 20 billions by one report. It also caused US government to guarantee the dubious debt of over $ 306 billions making D, E or F grade into AAA securities, and probably bought such debt from the market at few pennies, and then selling them later after State guarantee at hefty profits – several times – which could return tremendous quarterly profits when every other firm including Morgan Stanley were losing. Do you know that $ 306 billions of dubious debt of Citigroup guaranteed by US government at the behest of Hank Paulson is almost equal to entire Cororate sector’s full year tax collections? Is Citigroup more valuable than almost all corporate companies put together?
GS is in my opinion is biggest insider trader.But this is just opinion.
shiva
1 Dec 09 at 6:34 PM
Hi Sir,
Would like to know your view on Aban Offshore (NSE: ABAN, CMP 1325). Do you think its a stock worthy of investment?
Thanks,
Pawan,
Delhi, India
Kalidas Says …. Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Too expensive at today’s prices.
Pawan
1 Dec 09 at 12:21 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
In reply of Vivek you have mentioned that- “What I am doing here is a thankless job.”
Sir, you are not doing thankless job, but we are very much thankful to you as you are eductating us for stock market.
Case of Hindalco is also applicable to me.I have also sold the same at Rs.110 considering your SELL call on 02-11-09 and after 2-3 days due to “U” turn of market it comes to Rs.130,even though i appreciate your work for educating us. As your BUY call of Hindalco was at Rs.92 around i got profit of Rs.18 per share.
I request you to continue your work of educating us. We investor always remains thankful to you for your NOBEL work.
- Ramesh, Mumbai, India.
Ramesh
1 Dec 09 at 10:02 AM
Abhishek Industries Ltd [ Group (B) Sector: Textiles - Products ]
BSE: 521064 NSE: ABSHEKINDS Bloomberg: ABIN IN IN Reuters: ABHP.BO ISIN
Adarniya Sir,
I am now confused about my holding of the mentioned stock. Even after selling the first two trades at profit I am left with 2738 shares @ 15.61 average price , cmp 14.70. loss of just 5.85%
I have earned 100% gain in previous trade which was acquired at 7.37 and sold at 16.65 . Thanks to you only.
Also kindly revisit the prospects of Store One Retail India Ltd [ Group (B) Sector: Textiles - Products ]
BSE: 532679 NSE: STOREONE Bloomberg: SORI IN IN Reuters: STOR.BO ISIN Demat: INE034H01016
Which has returned from 39.10 high in September to now 29.55 on 01.12.09. The small holding of 400 shares are being held as of now and you once commented that You look for approx 300% profit in this when your profit was about 200% and mine was 117%.
Meanwhile I am following your advise on cairn of adding 10-20 as per my spare money availability.
Due regards
Ranjana
Delhi
Ranjana
1 Dec 09 at 6:56 AM
This is meant for The Monk
You need to scroll down a bit after clicking on the link given on the blog above. You will see following info.:
Last trade 1183.0 Change +7.5 (+0.64%)
Settle Time 13:38 Open 1174.3
Previous Close 1176 High 1183.0
Low 1168.8 Open Int. 361915
Regards, Naresh Kumar, Faridabad
Naresh Kumar
1 Dec 09 at 5:54 AM
Dear Anilbhai,
I tried to find Dec contracts on INO.com and couldn’t find any. However I did see the humongous OI for Feb GC contracts. Could you please tell me the link where i could see all GC contracts i.e. Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, etc.?
Regards,
The Monk, Singapore
Kalidas Says …. Tuesday, December 01, 2009
See the left sidebar. Select All futures or Open Futures. You will see metal futures including gold. On right side corner of any gold contract, you will see “All months” or something like that. Click it and you will get full chain extending into 2013 and 2014.
The Monk
1 Dec 09 at 5:01 AM
For Atul.
Dear Atul just for your information that there are many gold pawn shops in Singapore where you can buy gold coin, bars and other jwellery items.
They normally sell second hand jwellery and so do not charge anything like making cost, GST etc and is provided with bill. I used to buy small qty of gold jewelery from them time to time.
There are three same kind of shops in Tampines interchange alone.
Anil Ji your guidence is required, please advise is buying from such shops are ok or not.
Regards
Saagar
Kalidas Says …. Tuesday, December 01, 2009
It may look cheaper, but there is no guarantee for purity or ownership. Supposing it is stolen property – you lose title and also end up in jail. When you want to buy gold, why go to the dustbin? Such buying is useful for jewelers who after buying melt it away, so that there is no trace.
Further, pawn shops are operated by mafia type people. If you buy and have dispute, you may not get money, but a pair of broken hand or legs.
Not suitable for Individuals.
Saagar
1 Dec 09 at 4:35 AM
Hi Kalidas
Could you be kind enough to expalin in simple terms, how could I invest in MCX gold futures. I read that investement last November in gold gave return of 49% whilst in MCX futures gave 250%.
Could you be in a position to help out.
Xavier
UAE
Kalidas Says …. Tuesday, December 01, 2009
You know my established policy – I do not advise on futures of any kind.
Xavier
1 Dec 09 at 4:28 AM
Dear Sir,
Hats off to you. You are really a rare gem of knowledge and early predictions. It seems gold has already started it’s journey towards new heights from today itself. The resistant level given by you $1185 has been crossed as of now and touched $1196 (a record high each new day…)
In other yesterday’s post, you have mention a bit of correction in terms of gold price. Was it due to contract expiry purely ? Can we see Gold consolidating at current price level for some time more (till 11/12) ?
Thanks for your time and efforts for enlighten us in variously & practically …
Many Thanks, Harsh Verma
Haridwar..
Harsh
1 Dec 09 at 3:41 AM
Sir,
Is evinix accessories (532818)a good and safe long term investment ?. I’m really keen on this script
please reply
Bilal,New Delhi, India
Kalidas Says …. Wednesday, December 02, 2009
First of all while posting queries, please post it in normal manner after spell check and otherwise. Do not use fleshy ???? (I have removed them). In just 3 lines, you make 4 errors. If you do not take proper care, I will delete your posts. This applies to all readers, not only you.
Looks interesting company. I have not followed much. It was too early to split shares from 1 to 10, just to increase share prices. Further, the profits looks inflated due to many expenses being classified into “deferred revenue expenditure”
However, on the face of it, it is an interesting company. Since it is very small value stocks, it tends to be speculative. The cost of buying and selling becomes too high because many brokers charge 5 paise to 10 paise per share, making it very expensive.
Nevertheless, it is worth taking small position subject to further study. I have downloaded its balance sheets and watch it during weekend. May be one can start with 10,000 shares and build up the position every quarter. I will follow this share, although I normally do not go for very small company.
bilal
1 Dec 09 at 3:37 AM
Dear Sir,
Great reply to hhh on Gold derivatives. The problem is even more acute in silver.
My one request to you – we would be requiring your support in deciding when to sell. I know you have given your targets for selling at various instances in the blog but we will require your active guidance during those times when all hell break loose because the situation is so dynamic that we cannot comprehend all the factors which you can.
Waiting for the doomsday to arrive.
Regards,
Vivek, Gurgaon, India
Kalidas Says …. Tuesday, December 01, 2009
The readers of this blog buy at various levels at different time, and as such difficult for me to give individual calls. Very recently, a reader questioned my call for selling Hindalco and said that I did not know the market well. He did not furnish me full details though.
What I am doing here is a thankless job. I am not short term operator. I do mention what to buy, when to buy, how to hold and when to sell. In my future stock recommendations you will see the difference. It is then up to the individual to form his decision.
I will certainly give a call when it is time to sell. It will be upto the individual readers whether to follow or not.
Vivek
1 Dec 09 at 1:43 AM
Kalidasji,
Being in Singapore currently I could not purchase physical gold as avenues are not that great.
I have instead gone for a Silver passbook account with United Overseas Bank and have accumulated about 400 ounces of silver (as per the passbook entry) at about 17.6 USD/ounce
Also I have bought Gold ETFs in India.
One humble request – Please give the timely sale call for these metals just like the recent one you gave for stocks.
Your sale call helped me get 40% profit in Satyam and 15% in Spicejet(although Spicejet is much higher now, but no regrets)
I am keeping about 50% of investment amount aside in cash waiting for your next BUY call.
Regards,
Atul
Singapore
Kalidas Says …. Tuesday, December 01, 2009
This forum is meant to educate the readers to buy, sell and manage their investments. They have to grow up instead of depending on me all the time. How long they can do that depending on me? I can provide the tools and the reasoning behind what I write. They should educate themselves.
Yes, I will give a call when it is time to sell. But I can not give “ball by ball” commentary. I take normally long term position and sell when something is within 20% of my target. I always sell “rallies”
Atul
1 Dec 09 at 12:16 AM
Sir,
I have checked in Hongkong with Shanghai Commercial Bank and they have 5 teal bar which is 0.99 and not 0.9999 which they were offering for HKD55175 last friday when the gold was around US$1180/oz.
They also had 1 oz coin which is Canadian Maple leaf which they were offering for HKD9770/coin, which works out approx US$1260/oz which was quite expensive.
They did not have 1 teal coin.
Kindly advise if i should go ahead with it.
Thanks,
Naren,Guangzhou
Kalidas Says …. Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Good price to buy. They are charging just 1% commission as under:
Quoted Price : HK$ 55,175 Quantity: 5 Tael
Price/Tael : 55,175/5 = 11,035
1 Tael : 37.5 Grams
Price /Gm : HK$ 294.26
Price/ Ounce : HK$ 9,153 (1 Troy Ounce = 31.1035 gm)
Purity : 0.99
Price for 0.9999 : HK$ 9,153 x 0.9999/0.9=HK$ 9245
Exchange Rate : 1 US$ = HK$ 7.75 appx
Price in US$ : HK$ 9,245/7.75 = US$ 1193
Intl Price : US$ 1,180
Premium : US$ 13 or just 1.10% which is nominal
BUY IT
Naren
30 Nov 09 at 9:26 PM
Sir,
In one of your post, you have mentioned about billions of derivatives in gold and silver which are to expire soon. Can you tell more on this and the effects on expiry.
Also I am waiting for your reply on the query I have mailed you.
hhh, Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says …. Tuesday, December 01, 2009
The contracts for Dec 2009 Open Interest is 17,426 contracts or 1,742,600 Ounce of Gold = $2 Billions worth @ 1180. Most of the contracts were bought back during recent fall (deliberately caused to buy back) on 27/11/2009
They have been rolled over to February 2010 where the Open Interest has risen to “361915″contracts = 36,191,500 Ounces (equal to 1,125 tons – almost 50% of world production) equal to US$ 43.4 billions @ US$ 1200/Ounce. Do you think that there is enough gold of this much size in the market? If only 10% insisted on physical delivery, the gold prices will spike to incredible level.
What is really happening is that very large shorters – Banks and Investment banks – who have been having short positions for number of years, have been postponing their collapse by rolling over the contracts on gold. Once the rolling over stops, the way CDO and CDS stopped, there will be huge demand for physical delivery of gold which may push the metal to incredibly high level.
How long these bankrupt banks will be able to postpone their future liability, we do not know.The Open Interest position used to be in the region of 70,000 to 80,000 contracts when the gold prices were $ 300 to $ 500. At today’s price, the volume has risen to 4.5 times (up 450%) at even higher prices (up 400%). It will be increasingly difficult for shorters to buy back the contracts.
Major players for gold have been JP Morgan, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, UBS (used to be, now less), and some investment banks (only two large banks are surviving – Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley – of which MS does not have monetary power anymore), and some British banks like RBS, Barclays etc. Who has the largest short position, we do not know – because these are internal figures.
But the guess is major defaulter could be JP Morgan. In one of their balance sheets of past years, they had shown contingent liability of 1000 tons of gold valued at $ 42 only. At today’s price of $ 1200, the liability works out to $38 billions. that was the short position a few years ago – how much has been increased, we do not know. Judging by quadrupling of volume in open interest, it appears that these banks will have exposure anywhere between $ 40 billions to $ 120 billions. Do they have this kind of capital after losing billions of dollars in CDO and CDS?
Supposing the gold price rises to $ 3000, what will be the liability of these shorting banks – $ 100 billions to $ 300 billions – the total Forex holdings of India. Are these banks bigger than India? They are not even 1% of Indian economy.
Further, these shorting banks also have extremely large short position in gold producers’ currencies such as South African Rand, Russian Roubles, Aussie dollars and loony or Canadian dollars. If those currencies rise as well, which is very natural, their liability will burst through the sky.
Always follow the future market link Ino.com. The figures given here always changes daily. So the figures given above do not stay at same level.
The mute question is – How long these shorting banks and investment banks will be able to postpone their real liability which is at present contingent one? How long?
hhh
30 Nov 09 at 2:42 PM
Sir,
I want to buy your book ’subprime resolved’.
The only problem I see is in understanding basic financial concepts like CDS, CDO, etc which may come up in the book. Kindly let me know if I can understand these stuffs as well while reading the book, or I need to have/develop prior knowledge of the same. (I am non-financial guy. To be precise, an engineer).
Regards
Gaurav
Kalidas Says …. Tuesday, December 01, 2009
The book is incredibly simple. It can be understood by any science and mathematical student (better than even Commerce graduates or MBA or CA).
In fact this book is written by me – a Science graduate with Chemistry and Physics. (of course, I also have professional qualification in Banking, Cost Accounancy and Law). If I could write such book as science graduate, will you not understand as Engineer – at far more intellectual level than me? Even a student at SSC level will understand easily.
Science students make better stock brokers than commerce graduates/CA/MBAs. The reason is that the science students have solid base – they do not mug up – they go step by step. They know the basics of formula better than anyone else.
Read the opinion of other readers found in the slideshow on the main article, and also in textual form from the sidebar.
If you are convinced, then only buy the book. Write me again. I will forward remittance details if you really want to buy this book. If you are still in double mind, don’t buy it.
This book is an investment, not the story tale of Harry Porter. What you learn in this book is not even remotely taught at top business schools – because they simply do not know the basics.
Gaurav
30 Nov 09 at 12:24 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
Regarding Gold USD Price:
I believe that Gold Price will mostly Consolidate in the Month of December, because
1. Marriage season & hence the demand in India is coming to an end.
2. Long Holiday season is arriving in Western countries, which means we might see a dip or consolidation in Gold price.
Am I on the right path? Please correct me.
Regards
BV.
Kalidas Says …. Monday, November 30, 2009
Marriage season in India starts in January/February and again in May. Further, investment demand from western countries far exceed, several times, the demand from India. December is a major critical month for gold expiration contract. You may see lot of upward movement from 11/12 onwards when the shorter will have to rush to the market to buy back their contracts or face physical delivery. There is no physical gold around.
BV
30 Nov 09 at 9:16 AM
Kalidasji,
I am eagerly waiting for your guidance regarding the query I had sent you to rk mail id, as Gold price is also on rise and I have to take action before it moves ahead of USD 1235, if you say ok.
Regards.
Rang-Jama, Bangalore
Kalidas Says …. Monday, November 30, 2009
I will reply tomorrow. The gold may correct a bit today or tomorrow.
REJOINDER:
Reply sent to your email. Please check your inbox.
Rang-Jama
30 Nov 09 at 9:02 AM
Sir
Awaiting your report on CAIRN INDIA Ltd.(Bse code 5327920,CMP 277)
Rajesh C. Shah
Sangli,India.
Rajesh C. Shah
30 Nov 09 at 5:20 AM
Sir,
Thank you for your reply on my purchase of Gold and Silver. Although I am happy I got a fair deal for Gold. I realized something was wrong with the purchase of Silver. I paid the price for my impulsive buying. However I am keeping it as savings for my Daughter’s wedding which will be somewhere after 15 years.
Once again I am thankful to you. You advised me to buy 60 Grams and I was thinking of buying 100 Grams but my wife told me to buy 250 Grams. I am sure with your “Golden Advice” my money is SAFE, even though I see the price has reduced, I am looking for the price of Rs.40000 per ten grams which you had mentioned in your recommendations to me.
Thank you,
Ravi,Chennai,India
Ravi
30 Nov 09 at 1:19 AM
Whats your view on Gitanjali Gems ? Whats its scope on 2 to year basis? Do you see any further growth in this segment( Sector). I have 150 shares @ Rs 175. I have Rs 50,000 in cash. Can I invest in this company further?
You have previously advice me about XL Telecom. The company is either raising 5% in a day or falling 5% in a day. I couldn’t understand the pattern nor identify how much is the right price for me to buy to gain some profits. Please advice me on this as well.
CMP of Gitanjali Gems =115.00
CMP of XL Telecom = 36.00.
Sorry for missing CMP details.
Regards
Anand Siva
Sydney
ANAND SIVA
30 Nov 09 at 12:10 AM
Dear Kalidasji,
While opening November Series of “Confused Mind Clear Answer” i found there is not a single query is available with it’s reply. As it is reference for reader’s like me pl. do needful for re arranging the web page so that all query with its reply will become available.
- Ramesh, Mumbai, India.
Kalidas Says …. Monday, November 30, 2009
I mentioned earlier that something has gone wrong with the site on Friday as result of which comments have not been appearing. It looks like that the links were corrupted – data base is intact. My site designer will fix it in 3 days because he is away. This is why we started December series early (normally you remind me, but I have beaten you this time)
Ramesh
29 Nov 09 at 10:19 AM
Dear Sir,
The article below talks about global collapse and the possible ways to prepare for the same.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html
As per this article, in the worst case scenario the gold price would go up (similar to what you have been saying for long). However it also says that the property prices would come down.
It would be great if you could please let us know your views on the impact of global econmic downturn on the property prices.
Regards,
Hitesh
Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says …. Monday, November 30, 2009
When the global collapse arrives, the liquid assets usually go down first, because they are disposable. Property by nature is illiquid relatively. This is why it is having laggard effects.
Normally, the stocks collapse have localized effects on local property. If something happens in UK, its reverberations will not be felt in India in property sector immediately. Yes, it will be felt in UK. If Indian stocks also tank steeply, then only Indian properties may soften. Further, the countries having many banking problems will suffer more. It is said that troubles arrive in hordes and leave one by one. As if sub prime related CDO were not enough, the Dubai Sheikh hit hard.
Hitesh
29 Nov 09 at 9:46 AM
Sir,
Will take care that I don’t field such questions in future which may eat-up your precious time.
Regards,
Gaurav
Kalidas Says …. Monday, November 30, 2009
I am not restricting you on your questions. They are better covered in articles. Of late, so much time is taken by this column, that I do not get time for better things – that is – proper article.
I am therefore going to restrict reply to relevant specific questions rather than generic questions which are best covered by articles, which can become central reference point for all.This column results in scattered queries and answers which are useful on the spot but not on long term basis.
Gaurav
29 Nov 09 at 8:52 AM
Sir,
Can you guide us as to how one can invest in silver? I am not well-acquainted with silver as such, so would prefer to go for paper-sliver (which can be purchased online, may be through demat account, & has also got enough liquidity) rather than physical one.
Regards,
Meghana, Pune
Kalidas Says …. Monday, November 30, 2009
I really do not have idea of paper silver. Are you talking about future contracts on MCX? Show me which product you are talking about. Further, try to invest in something which makes sense to you. If you can not understand any part or form of investment, just do not invest there.
Future leveraged contracts will put you on the edge. Your other official and personal life will be severely affected. It is really not worth it. Show me a single most investor who made fortune in futures and options. They are sugar coated poison pills.
If you are referring to particular product relating to silver, inform me. While querying make your question very specific.
Meghana
29 Nov 09 at 7:03 AM
What a reply Sir, Seems like you would be writing a book on Dubai Crisis very soon…
SIR, whats ur view for short-term say Dec expiry? Up or down?
Also if you can give some views on ICICI & RNRL then would be thankful to u
Vinay
Delhi, India
Kalidas Says …. Monday, November 30, 2009
Of late, I have been getting lot of vague questions. You want short term target for Dec expiry – of what?
No views on ICICI. I do not like such derivative players who sold dubious products to their customers, and got refuge under lousy Indian court’s archaic legal system. it has bankrupted many small companies and businesses. It is unfortunate that Govt of India is tolerating such banks- it will boomrang on them sooner or later. That will cause earthquakes in the Indian stock markets. RNRL some other time.
Vinay Kumar
29 Nov 09 at 6:46 AM
Sir, In your reply to query of Mr.Gaurav (28th Nov.2009), you have said that you are answering such general questions for the last time. My request to you is that you may exercise your discretion instead to answer general questions keeping in view emerging developments rather than completely ignoring general questions, since your answers to general questions are always ‘different’ than so-called experts, shining, and directional to readers to choose correct path(which path they appreciate only after passage of time – for e.g. your call on gold, Immovable Property market etc.).
V C Sekar, Delhi, India
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, November 29, 2009
Agreed
vc sekar
29 Nov 09 at 5:19 AM
Dear Sir,
When this financial tsunami comes and leaves behind bruised states and fallen companies [I have recently watched the movie '2012'
:) ], do you expect a spate of zero coupon bonds by those countries. As I understand from your previous articles, Zero coupon bonds would be the best bet for a long term investments. May I know how you keep track of ZCBs being issued by the governments.
Regards
NSri, Pune
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, November 29, 2009
Almost all treasury bonds are Zero Coupon bonds. They are short term and issued at discount so that its yield is equivalent to built in interest rates.
The Zero coupon that I recommended was for long maturity, say 20 years or more. They are issued at deep discount. For instance, in 1993, IDBI issued Deep Discount Bonds (or Zero coupon bonds) for Rs 1 lakhs against the investment of Rs 2,700 only for 25 years, yielding about 15% on compounded basis. These are the bonds I have recommended. (Like South African Zero Coupon Bonds).IDBI recalled the bonds under the reserved call back option clause after 10 years, when the interest rates dropped below 8% whereas the built in interest on bonds were over 15.5%
When raising of money becomes difficult, the borrowers show you the moon. For instance, when the borrowing became very difficult, IDBI came out to show investors Rs 1 lakh against investment amount of Rs 2700 only.
When the interest rates start rising very fast, the borrowers in US, UK, Europe will come out with zero coupon bonds in their currencies. That will be the time to buy $, GBP or Euro and also equity.
When the government issues long dated (longer maturity) bonds at discounted value or Deep Discount Bonds, people will know soon. They are sold through brokers so it becomes public knowledge. Even the people in the train will talk about these zeros while sweating.
NSri
29 Nov 09 at 4:19 AM
Dear Sir
Thanks a lot for your kind reply yesterday. I reconfirmed with your Fair Price calculator & bought 300 grams 999.9 purity Gold for $11,520. For Silver, do you advise waiting for a correction, or it is a good buy at current levels.
Vikas, Dubai, UAE
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, November 29, 2009
Silver of late is much stronger than Gold. When Gold corrected by 4.5% on friday, Silver fell only 5% (in normal course it would have fallen 12% to 15%). This means that some serious buyers are accumulating this metal steadily. Further, US Mint has informed investors that it may not fill the orders for Eagle 1 Oz Gold coin due to depleted inventory. The buyers therefore will buy whatever is available as alternative – which is Silver.
You can always wait for correction. However, when the correction comes, you do not have to rush to me whether or not the price is right or not. You have to grow up and grab the opportunity. Lady Luck favors brave, and bravery comes from within, not from Kalidas.
Buy therefore some silver. Dubai is the best place in Middle East to buy Silver bullion (Silver bars – 0.9999). Do not buy coins unless you want to hold it for 10 to 20 years.
Vikas Sharma
29 Nov 09 at 2:44 AM
Dear Sir,
It looks like there is problem in accessing the “Confused mind clear answer” series 9-11. Could you please check it?
In future if the interest rate raise then do you think that Gold price will retreated(may be downward)?
Regards
Vijay,Bangalore
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, November 29, 2009
Yes, there is a problem. Something went wrong Friday night. It looks like the style sheet was corrupted by some plug ins. My Site designer is away for 2 days/ We should be able to fix it by Wednesday.
Many other months are equally affected. The matter is already there in the database, only proper link was corrupted. Sorry for the trouble.
Contrary to what the people nonsensically talk about, the gold price today are rising due to lack of faith in the global banking and financial system, not as hedge against inflation. How many times the people consciously thought about inflation while buying gold? Answer is ZERO times. These are the pet worlds of analysts and economists.
When the confidence returns to the market for the soundness of banking and financial system, then only the gold price will retreat. However, you will never see the level of yester years, that is $300/Oz
Vijay
29 Nov 09 at 2:03 AM
Sir,
Have you authored any book other than “Subprime resolved”? . Book on general investment principles, like the articles that you written here – but with more focus on larger economic picture & how a investor should capitalise on the ups and downs.
If you do not have such a book already, then are you planning on writing one?. I’d like to buy any such book of yours. I’ve been holding back myself from buying the “Subprime resolved” thinking that it is entirely focused on one problem.
“There are also billions of dollars of other derivative products based on precious metals such as Gold and Silver which will mature soon” – Nobody but a seasoned expert can foresee the larger picture like you do.
regards
Raghav, Bangalore
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, November 29, 2009
Not in immediate future. I will write one book called “Mystical Numbers” by Anil Selarka or Kalidas which will be the most unique book in the human history. It is entirely my own theory and practice. These numbers hold good in every situation, stock market, gold market, metal market, bonds, grocery, vegetable market, normal business, personl life lke your own academic career or jobs in office etc etc.
Other series on investment will be published as eBook ro PDF Book for each branch of investment for nominal prices of Rs 250 to Rs 300 per ebook depending on the size.
Raghav
29 Nov 09 at 1:38 AM
This is just for kind information of boarders –
Date 28 Nov 2009
Nagpur Maharashtra
Gold bar 99.99 Rs/- 1810 per gm. VAT 1%.
Gold Coin 25 mg, same rate as above + 650/- labour charges extra. All with Bill and certificate.
(I bought 51.170 gm bar yesterday for Rs.93543/- from Kothari Jwellers)
Anil, Nagpur, Maharashtra, India.
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, November 29, 2009
Looks like all ANIL are giving good info. Is Anil Ambani listening?
Dr. Anil
29 Nov 09 at 1:18 AM
Sir,
Could you please guide us as to what is this Dubai crisis and what cue we can take from it about near future?
Is this the beginning of ‘the big crash’ you have been talking all the while?
Regards,
Gaurav,
Mumbai
Kalidas Says …. Sunday, November 29, 2009
I have not studied its origin. Even if the property in Dubai is down by 30% to 50%, it can not invite default of $ 80 Billions.
There is something else.The total GDP of entire UAE (Dubai, Sharjah, Oman, Abu dhabi etc) is $260 billions. How could there be default of Dubai alone of $ 80 billions.
Since Muslims can not earn interest due to their Religious bind, the western bankers must have sold bogus derivative products such as CDO (not CDS). These instruments were leveraged nearly 6 to 20 times. It looks like these “ganwar” Sheikhs and Sultans may have been sold those inflated derivatives which the banks in turn would have sold to others. If Dubai defaults, those issuing banks for secondary derivatives may have to pay back.
If Dubai wants to come out of trouble, it should officially default and let those banks die their natural death. What will those banks do if Dubai defaults? Will they launch military attack on Dubai?
Dubai’s 80 billions default is nothing compared to over $3.5 trillions now engulfing United States. Their credit rating is still AAA because if they were to meet obligations in USD, they will print it.
Obama, Bernanke and Geithner will say, Okay, our debt is in USD so come after 3 days, we have large print run order to meet the demand of China and Japan. Come later. The trouble with the world, including India, is that they go on contracting debt in forex and let their currency fall deliberately. We can not print USD but US can. That is why their credit rating is AAA, in spite of huge liability to the world.
Those who say that crisis is over should eat back their words. The crisis is now spreading. There are also billions of dollars of other derivative products based on precious metals such as Gold and Silver which will mature soon.
When the gold and silver doubles or trebles, that will be final straw. 24 out of first top 30 banks in the world will go bankrupt. Almost all countries will be forced to cancel their currency by reverse split, that is if you have $ 5 it will be converted into $1,your $ 500,000 will become$100,000. Don’t think that it can not happen. It happened to Russia a decade ago when it decided to default.
Almost all Western countries are on operating table. When the big borrower dies, they carry with them biggest lenders viz. Japan and China. They too will die. They are in ICU. You are asking me when the patients will die. At any time…
At the moment, it appears that only Australia, India, Brazil and possibly Indonesia will suffer least damage, and in fact they will prosper. Others’ loss is their gain.
Now, this is the last time I am answering such general questions. Your query of 3 lines can not be answered even in 3000 pages.
Gaurav
28 Nov 09 at 10:55 PM