World Currency War – just started
Ref: 10-004 of February 5, 2010 Download from ScribD or from Download Pool>> Article
Only a day before I have warned in Indian Stocks Observatory “Serious currency wars are going to be major feature in second quarter of 2010. BEWARE”. And it turned out to be true within a day. Now watch the following event which happened in quick succession on Thursday night:
- Dow Jones cracked to close at 10,002 (- 268; -2.68%) S&P 500 at 1,063 (-34; -3.11%)
- There was turmoil in the currency market. All major currencies went down against USD. That is, only USD went up. Look at the numbers here:
- Gold & Silver prices went down by huge margin:
- Oil Prices too dropped to $ 73.19 (Down – 3.79%)
- NOW, look at the US Dollar Index known as USD Index. It went up to 79.96 (+2.23; +2.87%)
- Wild rumors were spread that GREECE was about to default, next in line was PORTUGAL followed by SPAIN. What have they in common? They all belong to (1) Euro Zone and (2) They are all corrupt countries (3) except for Spain, other two were very small countries.
- Another rumor was spread that United Kingdom (Britain) might be degraded as it had highest debt level vis a vis its GDP
- In short, the scenario was created that only US$ could go up, all other assets will go down. Thus, an impression was created that SELL all assets and BUY only US Dollar
- This is a repeat scenario of Asian Crisis when it was started from Thailand, a small Asian country, then Indonesia, Korea, Taiwan – all had one common feature – they were all corrupt countries. Thailand was used as “Pilot Project” how the world was going to react, so that future strategies could be refined. During Asian crisis, all assets were going down, stocks, bonds, currencies, gold, silver etc but only one asset was going up, that is, US Dollar. It was like a scenario when you are locked into a room with 7 doors closed and fire was ignited. There was only one outlet – a window named US$
- 10. The Asian Crisis was timed to synchronize with the birth of Euro. US feared that Asian Reserve lying with Fed might be diverted to Euro, so the crisis was initiated. When Thailand needed $ 25 billions, Japan, China, Malaysia, Singapore etc contributed $1 billion to $ 5 billions. In Fed book only book entries were passed – Debiting Donor and Crediting Thailand. The funds remained with Fed – it did not move out to the treasury of ECB
Who is buying US dollar anyway?
At least at the time of Asian Crisis, there were not much of economic difficulties for US. Today, however, consider the following:
- US lost almost $ 1.9 trillions in 2009 in bailing out the banks, brokers and insurers
- Citigroup, JPMorgan, General electric, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wachovia Bank, Wells Fargo, AIG, Lehman Brothers, Bears Stearns were all bankrupt or nearly bankrupt.
- 7 millions jobs have been lost in last 2 years.
- AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mae are all teetering on collapse.
- The entire economy is in the state of collapse.
- Bankruptcies galore.
- All auto companies and airline companies are nearly bankrupt.
- Housing market is dead
- Credit market is dead. No one is lending to no one.
- 70% of State governments are bankrupt.
- There is no yield on Bonds – it is kept nearly Zero.
- Most IPO for even $ 100 to 300 millions have been postponed or failed. In that case, how Bank of America, Citigroup could collect over $ 100 billions in public offering?
- Pres. Bush spent $ 700 Billions, Obama $ 787 Billions, Health care will cost trillions, and new stimulus package will cost another $1.9 trillions in 2010. They are simply nuts.
In such scenario, who in right mind will invest even $10,000 in United States and buy dollar. If people do not buy dollars who is that invisible God giving almost $ 2 trillions? No one knows. All are bluffing – Governments, Obama, Geithner, Bernanke, Senators etcetera. It is obvious that politically affiliate banks like JPMC, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs appear to be the biggest buyers.
How GOLD was whacked yesterday by $ 41or nearly 4%?
Gold always goes up in Asia and goes down in USA? See yesterday’s picture:
It will be seen that on Nymex the Gold was trading at $ 1111 whereas as on New York liffe it was trading down at $ 1074 in very small volume of just 6 Mini gold contracts, causing panic. What these SEC, FBI, CBOE are doing out there? Are they still mis-managing whole business of supervision, control and regulatory mechanism? Or they have all syndicated with the authorities?
Also look at the data alongside on left. April 2010, where most positions have been rolled over, the Open Interest is huge – 301,656 contracts or 30.165 millions of Ounces = $ 32.182 billions (= Rs 1,480,372 crores)
There is no recovery, but they go on brain washing investors that US has “job less“recovery. It is like “Condom Economy” with lot of stimulants like Viagra, and other aphrodisiacs, where one can have sex but no babies.
The fact of the matter is that the United States is in final stage of cancer. All companies go on giving lower estimates first and then show having beaten them to prove that the economy is growing @ 5.7% in December Quarter.
ALLIES – Europeans and British people are betrayed:
The Europeans and Britain under Tony Blair sacrificed thousands of their soldiers and citizens in fighting hand in hand with Americans. Same Americans are now trying to wreck their economy by attacking their currencies in “Asian crisis” style. The American rating agencies and TV media are constantly spreading mischievous news that those countries are in trouble. The Motive: to prevent China from diverting its $800 billions reserve to Euro zone or HM Treasury of British government.
Will European Union survive?
This is a serious attack on European Union. The Americans want to break up the EU but the Europeans are just stupid not to read the writings on the wall. Look at the sequence – Iceland, Greece, Portugal and now Spain. Britain is the next one to be attacked. They were all loyalists to Americans one day. But the fact is “MONEY TALKS”. Every friendship is dispensable in love and war. Even Saddam Hussein was heroic friend of United States, who was finally hanged after destroying his beautiful Iraq in the name of WMD and democracy.
When the Europeans and British realize this hidden truth? They are really slow thinkers. It could be too late. Or it is possible that they may ask for return of Gold physically. That is when the test will come. That is the time when the Gold may rise to heroic heights. It will happen.
It looks like that the Slumlords at the top (not ordinary honest Americans – they do not know anything) do not like their No.1 status being challenged by other nation. Even Obama said that. If they can not maintain their status by competition, they will destroy or decimate other nations to remain at top. They did it while busting Japan when Nikkei rose to 38000 +. It is not even 25% today in spite of all touted GDP growth story. Two US based brokers arrived in Japan and used their financial skill in futures and options (F&&O) to destroy the Japan. However, until today and may be tomorrow or day after, the Japanese are not going to learn. They are just “robots”. This is why I never study “Japan”, nor venture into it.
It is said that you get betrayed from one whom you trusted. The Europeans and British people will learn after a few years that they were betrayed by the nation whom they trusted most and for whom thousands of their citizens/soldiers sacrificed their lives in Iraq and Afghanistan. Tony Blair will bite his lips and nails when he reflects on what he did. He will get into asylum ultimately.
Compare Tues -Wednesday and Thursday events:
Many were asking me whether it was time to buy Gold after having been fallen to $ 1085 level.
On Tuesday and Wednesday
The Gold rose by 3%, enticing real gold investors to resume position. Yen also weakened. Almost all precious metals rose during these session, commodities rose, US$ index weakened, Euro and Sterling Pound also rose. The gold appeared to rise in paper, probably on other exchange NY Liffe (I am yet to study this Exchange) this was done deliberately.
On Thursday
Very next day, Gold was shattered from $ 1111 as explained above. In short, the major players, notably large affiliated banks, who were bailed out last year, and prominent broker cum bank, shorted the gold and almost all currency and commodity futures at one go – result almost all precious metals lost over 4%, base metals also. Obviously they carried out the attack at behest of authorities. This was classic PUMP and DUMP game.
The US$ index rose, Yen rose, Can$ also rose (but Aussie$ fell steeply). This means that Japan has agreed to continue with $ T Bills purchases and China did not. The idea was to terrorize the investors in gold, especially large central banks in Asia like China and India, to prevent them from getting away from dollar into euro, pound or gold, most favored assets amongst Asians.
Please note that the people who caused this crash control exchanges, markets, media (like all business channels), and financial newspapers by feeding them the information they should receive.
In this electronic age of computers and broadband TV, the beautiful damsels go on churning out the stories of economic recovery – what they call – Jobless recovery – and any bad news being reported as “better than expected” to push up the markets when required.
What could happen today (Friday):
It is certain that all markets will suffer “route” today but manageable. The US markets could also go down first, and then these wily players in New York – banks and prominent broker cum bank, Buffet’s favorite, will come out of no where about 45 minutes to 1 hour before close and reverse the trend on every exchange – NYSE, NASDAQ, CBOE, NYMEX, COMEX etc. They will buy the calls when the markets down in morning session, selling puts bought on Wednesday and Thursday. Please note that no logic is going to work for few days – we are in the middle of covert WAR.
US economy grew @ 5.7% – says President Obama:
If the size of economy is $ 14 trillions, 5.7% growth means that the economy generated extra GDP of $ 800 billions; where from, when 7 million Americans lost job? The $ 800 billions rise in GDP is equal to entire GDP of India. Did US with 300 millions of unemployed and under employed Americans created additional assets of $ 800 billions in worst economic environment that was created by 1 billion people of India in growing environment?
Come on, President Obama. Go back to Primary school and learn some simple math. OR if this is your deliberate move, better dress up in Halloween outfit.
And is the size of US economy really $14 trillions? When I left the field of stock broking, the US economy was estimated at little less than $ 8 trillions. If we take today’s figure of $ 14 trillions as current size, there is a growth of $ 6200 billions or 80% over last 6 ½ years. That is, the annual growth rate is 12.3%, faster than even China and India with almost 3 to 4 times US population.
Conclusion:
Only bankrupt persons will show off. They become extravagant spender in their last days. It is almost certain that “United States is technically bankrupt”. The Tsunami has arrived, just a few hundred miles away. Its all over, will be the verdict of the world after a few months. Next few months will bring the world closer to WORLD WAR III. When the war starts world over, the first casualty will be Internet and electronic banking. Look at Google and China. Go for GOLD and SILVER in physical form, not paper contracts, passbook gold or ETF.
I was right in forewarning all the readers to sell 80% to 90% by 21 Jan 2009 remain in cash, saying that “next 15 days up to 9th February are extremely heavy for United States. They were prophetic words at that time. They are now becoming reality much sooner than expected.
Look at Toyota as indicator – anything can happen at any time within 2 or 3 days
look at Toyota. A simple problem like a mole was made into mountain. It will recall 7 million vehicles. If every repair cost them $ 1000, it may lose $ 7 billions besides production loss for over 6 months. Its sales will plummet. The company may suddenly sign off into oblivion. TOYOTA was a “King of Auto” for several decades. It took just 2 days to destroy them. They say that they will make money. Yes, they surely will if they can print money like Federal Reserve of United States.
Let the final act of war be allowed to play it out. It will take a while but not so long enough. Be prepared. You may not have to wait too long for really long term investment. India, not China, will be the biggest beneficiary of this crisis. Hands Down.
Kalidas (Anil Selarka)
Hong Kong, February 4, 2010 Ref: 10-004
Blog site: http://www.anilselarka.com Book web: http://www.subprimeresolved.com
Link to this page
Waiting for your post. Come back soon kalidasji
rajesh
11 May 10 at 8:46 PM
Ok, so today when dow is down .. do you say that it is going to pro long ? should I sell all my holdings in nifty ?
john
7 May 10 at 3:34 AM
dear kalidas ji,
Its been a long time since you posted a new article. Sir ji, if time permits please post something soon.
We are all eagerly waiting for your views.
Warm Regards,
Parikshit
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, May 04, 2010
Two days, just two days
parikshit
4 May 10 at 3:17 PM
Dear Kalidas, are you sure what you are saying of ?
Its the strong bull market .. and you are always bear .. like Shankar Sharma..Its been May now, but still no sell off happening as you predicted .. I mean I dont doubt your capability, but if what you saying is really true then , pls suggest by when should I exit all my equity holdings ?
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, May 01, 2010
If I were a strong bull, I would not be limiting exposure to 40% in India only. I am still a big bear for the world market which may hurt Indian market individually. When the Dow is down by 200 points, Indian market in spite of good potential also tanks by 300 points. So do not think that Indian market would be isolated.
Yes, sell off has not begun as I had expected due to various reasons – I do not want to dilate. Today, practically everyone is involved in the stock market almost neck deep. They want to hear the market would go higher and higher and higher, so that they can come out – look under this section – how many investors are still trapped in stocks bought almost twice the price. Show me how many people are making decent money in current market or on their existing portfolio. These investors were caught in the “rat trap” in previous rallies.
I do not see any improvement in real pick up in economies in the western world. More and more frauds are coming to light. The interest rates are showing the signs of perking up, though not much. But these rates are ultimately going into double digits. I am therefore very selective even among 40% exposure to equity only for Indian equity where the interest rates are still higher at 7% on bank deposits against meager 0.5% in overseas market.
Personally, I am 100% liquid for my own personal needs to buy other physical assets. I would reinvest after addressing my needs.
Whether I am right or wrong or in timing, I am not concerned. I am not day to day player. I am not an active trader as well. At the moment, except some stocks in India, other stocks are too expensive to buy. Look at even at RIL – two months ago, it was at same level as it is at now – so also most of the stocks. They are not rising, learn this truth.
john
1 May 10 at 12:22 PM
Boss, from Jan onwards you have been spectacularly wrong. You have been a bear and market has been a bull. Now I dont have a problem with that, but the fact that you have gone into hiding and your loyal readers have been waiting..means you dont have convinction., Come out of your hiding and say that you have not been right for quite some time.
Kalidas Says ….Monday, April 19, 2010
Go by your conviction. I am not in hiding – I have nothing to hide nor I am a criminal. And I can not be right or wrong on minute to minute basis. This column is not meant for day traders or short term traders.
The financial crisis is still there. There is no recovery anywhere. If you think there is real recovery, enhance your exposure to the market. I don’t.
Manish
18 Apr 10 at 7:51 PM
Dear Anil Sir,
This is first time I read your article (via google search) about economy, USA polities , Gold Analysis.
It was exactly happened what you mentioned in artcle. Now i felt Why I did not read Anil’s article before investing in stocks in 2009 with lots of lossess.
I hope your articles will read through out World and Each and every investor should read before investing on Risky Investments.
Sir, I could not see any of your contacts. Any way,
Could you please let me know :
1.When I should by Gold and at what price level
2. Is it right time to buy Indian Stocks in India and USA ? If not when we can expect correction?
Thanks
Regards
Gopala Raju
001-217 778 4394
Gopala Raju
14 Apr 10 at 7:08 AM
Sir its been a long time since you have posted any article.. Waiting eagerly for it.
Regards
Siddhartha Shah, Mumbai
29th March, 2010
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, April 15, 2010
Wait for a week more.
Siddhartha Shah
29 Mar 10 at 7:46 PM
Mr. Kalidas,
Nifty has rebounded and almost back to the highs of 2010. are you bearish or bullish now on equities ?
regards
manohar
chennai
india
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, April 15, 2010
Yes, I am bullish on India, but do not pay attention to NIFTY or SENSEX. I focus only on specific equities where the real investors invest. If my Petronet makes 200% in 2 years, I do not care where the NIFTY or SENSEX goes.
manohar
19 Mar 10 at 1:26 AM
Dear Anilji / Sreeram,
Regarding conversion of GBP to USD or vice versa, instead you could buy gold from goldmoney.
Anyway, with number of gold grams (goldmoney), you can have more pounds or dollar whichever is going to be devalued.
For example I have bought 2500 GBP worth of gold grams in November to Jan in 3 transactions.
Now I have more GBP ,if we sell it now coz pound value is came down. (2700 GBP)
Obviously this depends on gold value increases against both dollar and GBP.
Thanks
Jay
London, UK 11th Mar 2010
Jay
11 Mar 10 at 7:36 PM
Dear Kalidas,
I am one of the avid readers of your insightful articles.
As you predicted, the currency war is on with Euro and it is breaking down everyday. Do you expect Euro to become extinct as currency once Euro Union eventually breaks up? Also, what are the next set of events that you are expecting to happen? I am not asking for a time frame. Just the set of events.
Thanks,
Rudra
Kalidas Says…17Mar2010
Yes, there can not be time frame. I have always expressed opinion that there can not be monetary union unless there is political union. To understand simply, consider all European States as if they are states of India – Gujarat, Maharashtra etc. However, in India there is political union between the states, so they can have single monetary unit, that is, Indian Rupee. In Europe, the monetary union is without the corresponding union politically. Hitler wanted political union first, and then monetary union. He was right in his approach. However, he was callous and lost politically.
Rudra Sinha
11 Mar 10 at 4:37 AM
Dear Kalidasji:
Recently came across this news on Bloomberg, which says about possible plunge of GBP (Great Britan Pound) to 20-30% against US Dollar;
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJhONJ3Sdkqw
Do you suggest that we convert my current GBP savings into USD even at the current rate of 1GBP = 1.50USD?
Can you give your views on this?
Many Thanks,
Sreeram, London, UK
1300hrs – 04 Mar 2010
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, March 09, 2010
The most acute economic problem lies in United States, the epicenter of financial crisis. Almost all major banks, insurers and brokers in serious troubles were from United States, not from Britain where the major casualty was only RBS.
There has been serious campaign orchestrated in United States against Great Britain because major dollar reserve was being transferred by China to Britain. By creating the fear that the GBP may fall by 20% to 30%, the Chinese may be persuaded by hook or crook to stay with the dollar. The most important development was that China who appear to have diverted to Britain, by over $ 100 billions at least as one reader recently pointed out from Federal Reserve official figures, the Britain was selling pound at least on paper and buying US dollar. To me it appears that triangular book entry game was played out without movement of actual funds as under:
CHINA – SELL US Dollar – BUY GBP
UK – SELL GBP – BUY USD
The GBP Buy and Sell canceled out each other. If there were really a sale of GBP by $100 Billions, sterling would have had precipitate fall.
Now, your question, whether the Pound will fall by 20% to 30% against dollar? I do not think it will. There are always two strength – one’s own and one that is borrowed or the relative weakness of other. If dollar had its own real strength, then I would have believed that the pound could fall sharply. However, until today, there is nothing to suggest that US is on recovery path – in fact the things are worsening day by day. All recovery talks are only on paper. Compared to that Britain appear to have some recovery.
To suggest you to switch from GBP to USD only because of the opinion of some leading fund managers would be a mistake. The best fund managers never talk in the public. They make the money and go away.
20% to 30% expected fall is too large to anticipate. The money market is the biggest market in the world. The entire range of economy ultimately get translated into money. Yes, US is out to defame or devalue pound with the motive of restricting outflow of reserve of Chinese from dollar to pound. But whether it will succeed or not is another matter. In past years, US was speaking with the position of strength; today, it is talking from the bottom of its weakness.
If GBP was to devalue by 20% to 30%, then almost all currencies in the world would devalue by that %. Should I believe that United States with almost $ 2 trillions of losses should command that much respect? I do not think so. Under the circumstances, if I were you, I would not switch from GBP to Dollar – instead use the opportunity to divest from dollar into pound, because it is going to be the currency of choice after the dollar. The pound has over 400 years of long history – no other currency including dollar has that kind of history.
Sreeram, UK
4 Mar 10 at 8:55 PM
Dear Kalidas Ji,
I belatedly found out your blog and am ruing having missed real op of not dispoing off my portfolio in late Jan and buying puts. Your article was so accurate and timely, and I can only congratulate you, please accept the same. I have now used this current rally to come out of my PF. Please advise, whether I am prudent or has the budget changed the picture for India and our markets will hold up. Can we still average on march puts, which are available too low? I am stuck in metal and RIL puts. Please advise.
Warm Regards!
Srinath
Kalidas Say……17Mar2010
At the moment, the markets are in short but upward trading range. I do not normally advise on short term puts and calls. March put are too near and yet they may not perform well in less than 15 days. Better roll over to April or wait for somoe more rally to buy the puts on rise. Use the level 18200 or about as perfect time to buy the puts, until such time call may perform better. Always use 80:20 rules. That is if you take bearish position to buy the puts, use 80% money there and at the same time, but some distant calls with 20% as effective hedge. India has too short term puts and calls which make it unmanagable.
There is nothing like you missed a bus or train. There are always opportunity to buy or sell at all time. Never regrate a decision.
srinath
4 Mar 10 at 3:37 AM
Dear Anilbhai,
I must congratulate you for your insightful articles. Your advice is grounded in reality and is applicable in almost all situations. You’re providing a yeoman service, and I wish you all the best of health, wealth and peace.
I came across this article which also proclaims the down slide of Euro and the eventual breakup of the European Union, although from a different perspective, which is somewhat contrarian to your views. I’d like to know your comments on the same. Thanks.
Sorry, here is the link to the article. http://www.dailywealth.com/archive/2010/feb/2010_feb_19.asp
Ajay D., Mumbai, India.
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 22, 2010
Euro will not break of its own. It is American conspiracy and rating agencies who are given agenda to destroy Euro so that people continue to buy dollar. It is not going to be that easy.
Ajay Dand
20 Feb 10 at 5:57 PM
Dear Sir,
Do you think the UK pound will strengthen against the US Dollar this year?
Regards
Manjunath
Bangalore, India
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 19, 2010
It has to but there are some contrary indications. While the individuals have been buying sterling, the British Government is raising its stake in US Treasury bills by almost $100 billions. So what the individuals buy, the UK government sells, which limits its rise. GBP is otherwise bette alternative to US dollar, in spite of UK still having huge deficits. It is like a choice between two paupers.
Manjunath
18 Feb 10 at 10:20 PM
Kalidasji,
A very well-penned article. Now I can understand your super-anguish during the Asian crisis when a similar situation had unfolded.
In fact, I felt the same after actually seeing Toyota go down significantly every day (today another news about power steering issue). It angers me furthermore to see how a country can control the entire world by hook or by crook.
But I am sure the day of reckoning is not too far off. The debt bomb is going to blow off sooner than later. In marathi they say “Papaacha ghada bharla aahe” (the pot of sins is full now)
Regards,
Atul
Singapore
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 19, 2010
You may be right
Atul
18 Feb 10 at 8:52 AM
Namaste Sir
For 1-3 year time horizon, can you please suggest the Asset class in which I should take position, whether it is Equity, Debt, Gold or any other asset class you think fit, Also can you please suggest the ratio for Mid cap and large cap holding.
Thanks & Regards
Inderjeet Khanna, New Delhi, India
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 19, 2010
Since you are in India, I would suggest the following:
Equity: 30%
(Swappable with/into Bank Deposits, that is sell when the markets are high and increase (Buy) when the stocks have corrected by 10% (Market Index) from recent high. In other words, the maximum exposure is limited to 40%)
Debt : 5%
LIC : 5% of your Annual Income
Bank deposits: 15%
(Swappable upto 10% with Equity. Always keep 5% in Bank Deposits all the time)
Gold : 10% (with Silver)
Property: 15%
(towards margin money for property for self use)
Property: 20% (towards margin money for property for investment purpose – by letting out on rent. Rollover this asset every 3 years, that is, taking profit and swapping into newly built property at all the time. Never buy old property unless it is at great bargain
Inderjeet Khanna
17 Feb 10 at 5:41 PM
I would like to know is this the right time to invest on physical gold or shall I wait couple weeks.
Please guide me.
Please let me know how to become a member of your site. Could not found link on your site or may be I over looked.
Thanks.
Ramesh, New Delhi, INDIA
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
There is no membership required for this blog. Gold is attractive to buy at current level. But it is not for short term trader. If you are looking for making good gains in few days, better forget about it.
Ramesh
16 Feb 10 at 8:56 PM
Namaste Sir
I wish you will have a long healthy life.
I am sure that one day your lessons will leads the world in more productive, sustainable, and growth oriented path.
God bless you sir.
Thnaks & Regards
Inderjeet Khanna, New Delhi, India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
thanks
Inderjeet Khanna
16 Feb 10 at 3:32 PM
Dear Sir,
I am a class IV employee at BSE. I am earning 2500/- per month and I have a saving of Rs.43700/- in cash which I keep in my kholi. I live in a kholi at Dharavi. I am very afraid after reading your articles. If I sell my kholi I will easliy get Rs.3 lakh. Should I purchase gold or silver or dollars afrom my saving and kholi sale money. Pl. advise me urgently. Please treat me as your brother.
Raj Malhotra
Kalwa Chawl,
Dharavi
Mumbai
India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 16, 2010
The way you write, does not suggest you are an employee earning just Rs 2500 per month. Even I could not save Rs 43,700 when I was bank officer in 1984 from my salary of Rs 2500 per month. You must have lot of discipline.
No, I would not advise you to sell your Kholi and speculate on gold. Have you forgotten the epic of “Mahabharata” where even Yudisthere lost everything in a gamble. If you sell your “khole” where will you stay? You have to give “pugree” of few lakhs if you want to rent an apartment in some other chawls.
raj malhotra
15 Feb 10 at 10:07 PM
CHINA SURPRISES BY RAISING BANKS REQUIRED RESERVES
Dear Kalidasji..
More tightening action by the Chinese, Please read the below link;
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE61B06920100212?type=usDollarRpt
Would wait for your comments;
Regards,
Sreeram, London, UK
12 Feb 2010 – 1200hrs – (1245hrs)
P.S: Could not find this post even after 45mins so reposting.. if duplicate pls delete this one sir..
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 15, 2010
Of later almost all central banks have resorted the dangerous practice of tempering with Cash Reserve Ratio, instead of raising interest rates directly, the traditional methods. In responsible management of Banking System, Cash Reserve Ratio is the most important element. By withdrawing money from the system and raising overall interest rates in the market is a very dangerous move. A country like India where the differential interest rates prevail, it will be the biggest loser because such actions penalize the poors and priority sectors.
Sreeram, UK
12 Feb 10 at 8:47 PM
China orders retreat from risky assets
Would like to add point 4 & 5, so reposting it again
Dear Kalidasji..
Would like your comments on this latest news link here please..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/7205110/China-orders-retreat-from-risky-assets.html
Sir,
1. If the chinese go through this process at serious extent of removing the liquidity, do you think this would cause the downward journey of US and World Markets?
2. Do you think this would come into effect very soon or will this be played like a slow poison?
3. What will be the effect on Currencies, USD, CAN, EURO & Rupee?
4. Will this situation gives GOLD to bounce back and move higher?
5. How hardly this will hit the commodities market?
Your valuable views and comments are very much appreciated;
Sreeram, London UK
11 Feb 2010 1332hrs
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 11, 2010
Question bordering on discussion type. If warranted, I will write short article.
Sreeram, UK
11 Feb 10 at 9:30 PM
Dear Aniljee
Ur articles/predictions just keep on getting refreshed in my mind whenever i start reading global news.
Ur prediction of internet and net-banking to get hit first seems to be coming true slowly and steadily as Iran bans Gmail.
Waiting with my fingers crossed for the things to unfold further.
Regards
Aditya
Mumbai-India
Kalidas Says ….Thursday, February 11, 2010
While writing or posting, please capitalize the words and also DO NOT use abbreviations like U for You, R for Are. Write simple English. You are not sending SMS or Telex message which cost money.
Aditya
11 Feb 10 at 2:12 PM
Dear Sir,
Can I request you to respond to my query posted on 5th Feb in case you have overlooked it. Many thanks.
Regards,
Ashutosh Kant, Pune, India
10 Feb 2010.
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Replied. go to your original enquiry
Ashutosh Kant
10 Feb 10 at 6:31 PM
Hello sir,
I’ve heard about you in the past but got an opportunity to visit your site only today. Read the last 3 articles sir. You’ve excellent read on the world economies. Hats off to your talent. I became dumbfounded for a moment. Anyway, don’t strain too much sir. Take care of your health.
Even though I agree with you that a crash is in the making, I somehow feel that the crash is not going to happen in one go because it could become a catastrophic event worldwide. I’m expecting the crash to get over just before Diwali timeframe.
Do you feel indian stocks will go anywhere near the march 2009 lows during this crash? What sectors & stocks would you suggest buying? Appreciate your view point.
Regards
Siva, Chennai, India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Crash is like a heart attack. A moment you are alive, another you are dead. Crash does not give advanced notice that I am coming. Yes, Indian market could test March low, because it is extremely expensive. We have to see the Budgetary Taxation proposal first.
Siva
10 Feb 10 at 1:17 AM
Sir,
Happened to read some interesting views in this article.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17061.html
It raises interesting questions like whether US would really let others go short on dollar heavily?. In such case, what plans of action it would have and dare to execute?
Its an interesting question, if dollar has to go bust then there has to be a international consensus to dump dollar at one go.US cant afford to have enemies all around. someone like George Soros would be eagerly waiting for that day i suppose.
regards
Raghav
Mumbai,India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
The whole article is flawed in my opinion. It presumes that China has only $ 800 billions in dollar. This is official dollar or dollar in T Bonds. Other dollar is “Eurodollar” which is trading outside United States. China can not and will not keep $ 1.6 trillions in Euro. It is still not viable currency.
Since basic presumption is wrong, there is no point of discussing further. The Author is hard worker with narrow vision.
Raghav
10 Feb 10 at 1:08 AM
Dear Kalidas Ji,
Hats off to your knowledge(which is perfect blend of pratical and theoretical knowledge). It was a delight to read your article and see the currency war live example in open at your blog. I have one question. I may sound silly though. Suppose US is doomed in near future and dollar needs to be replaced by some other international currency, which currency do you see most suitable to be replacing dollar and why the world forces(developed nations) will be ready to accept that new currency as mode of money exchange.
Neeraj, UP,India
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Write your City while posting. Your question is too much speculative at the moment. All major currencies are in trouble. In fact, the regime of floating currency will come to an end. Yes, Rupee has stance, capability, depth but its managers like RBI and Governements are not competent to assume responsibility.
US,Euro and Pounds will continut ot rule in foresseable future.
neeraj
10 Feb 10 at 12:09 AM
Dear Sir,
In your stock observatory section; the latest post on the Euro Shorting; the total contract value should be $ 240 bn and not Euro 240 bn. With all respect.
Your work is like charity. Some people are generous enough to give money, some give a livelihood and some knowledge.
Thank you for your good work.
Also, I have a small note for other readers: pls do not expect anyone to spoonfeed you with nitty gritties and small details. It is very time consuming. No one can help you unless you help yourself by doing your own reaserch and homework. I would personally come and read articles here to get a overall picture of what we may expect and that is enough. There is a lot of hardwork and family time which this gentleman is putting into writing his thoughs and views. Lets appreciate and receive them in the right spirit.
Thanks
Meher
Delhi, 09/Feb/2010
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
The amount was Euro 9 billions not $ 9 billions. Anyway it does not make much difference.
Mehr
9 Feb 10 at 7:08 PM
Dear Sir,
This is Joshy Devassy here from Mumbai India.I am a govt employee who has put in16 years of hard work In Indian Railways a govt entity.I happened to stumble across your blog just around two to three days back and was amazed by the info u provided across the economies around the world.Now the reason why i am writing to you is completely different from what others write and ask for.Having worked for around 15 years with limited promotion and limited salary and unequal opputtunities now at the age of 33 i am thinking of leaving my secure govt job and trade off for a job in the cruise industry which is concentrated mainly in the US of A.But having read yourblogs i am completely scared of taking such a decision.At present i have a salary of around 700 USD.On the cruise ships i have been offered 1500 USD as starting.Counting on todays exchange rate at 46 odd to the rupee it is a well deserved hike but i am wary reading your comments about the state of US economy which would lead to weakening of the USD and strengthing of the rupee.If the Rs appreciates to around below 40 then it may be a losing proposition for me.So pls guide me as to whether i can take such a risk.And secondly what promoted me into thinking of this new job option is that cruise liners all have made record breaking sales in the past two years which we call recession years.And thirdly is the govts inaction on providing a lumpsum benefit for employees who have completed 15 years of service in case they want to retire as proposed by the VI Pay Commission.The VI PC had proposed a lumpsum 80 basic pay for all those who had put in 15 years or more service but the govt outrightly rejected it without even thinking about the financial saving it would have in lieu of salary and pension to be not given .So Sir i would be highly obliged if you within your insight guide me whether i can take this high risk step.
I am happily married with a wife and kid.My wife too is in govt service.
Joshy Joseph
Thane/Maharashtra/India.
09 Feb 2010
14.15
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 09, 2010
Your comment is irrelevant to this section. Post it in Confused Mind Clear Answers. It will be deleted from here tomorrow.
Joshy Devassy
9 Feb 10 at 4:29 PM
dear kalidas sir
it was really excellent guidance for the week, only thing i want answer is euro continent is sinking , so dollar increase , and it has continous rally more n more since all euro country is problem , i think dollar will rally to 91 , so all commidty has go down more , even stock market will come dn to3800-4200 level nifty .
i expect gold to touch 900 dollar when dollar reach 91 .
i think we are in trublent time till may or june ,afterthat all will settle down n each everything go sideway for two years. this time we should pack all stock n gold n metal for net big jump .
Kindly Reply This Time
Arvind Jain
Chennai
India
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 09, 2010
Why don’t you take small trouble to spell check the message and using proper capitalization? This post will be deleted tomorrow.
Arvind
9 Feb 10 at 1:27 PM
Dear Anilji,
I understand your feeling but still it will be great if you can just give one liner type (just like stock observatory) doe’s & don’t s.
Thanks.
Parag
Surat
India
9-2-2010
Parag, Surat
9 Feb 10 at 1:03 PM
Dear Sir,
Thanks a lot .
Regards
Amit,
Melbourne, Australia
Amit
9 Feb 10 at 12:04 PM
Dear Anilji,
You have quote following thing in one of your reply.
” In India also, SEBI,NSE and BSE have started following those dangerous footsteps without any thoughts. They call themselves “reformist” but what has been happening in USA today, will happen in India after 5 to 7 years.”
I am suggesting you (if you feel appropriate) to have one small article that can cover what type of actions & preparation in Indian context that one must take when such thing becomes reality in India in future.
Hope this will help all of us.
Parag, Surat, India
Date: 9-2-2010
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 09, 2010
Even if I write, no one is going to read it. Such article take long time. And we never get credit for the work we do. Some one will steal it, copy it and present it under their name.
Parag, Surat
9 Feb 10 at 10:51 AM
Dear Sir,
With due respect, according to world bank data USA has GDP of 10.8 trillion in 2003.
http://datafinder.worldbank.org/gdp-current
Amit,
Melbourne, Australia
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 09, 2010
These date are always revised upwards with deficits, it seems. GDP is a measure of expenditure, not savings. The government expenditure accounts for almost 20%.
Look at India’s GDP as mentioned by World Bank
2003 – $ 599.46 Billions
2008 – $1,217.49 Billions
Rise – $ 618.03 Billions in 6 years
that is, @ 17% Annual Rate of growth on simple % basis (not compounded) – Is it true?
Further, they go on revising the GDP based on current prices every year. There is no uniform standard. Only last year (in 2009) I saw India’s GDP numbers at about $ 750 billions whereas we are shown $ 1.2 trillions by World Bank in 2008. I will try to get hold of official report of India as I have seen and let you know.
Even Brazil economy is shown as larger than India by 33% (over $1.65 trillions) – Would you believe it?
Further, the GDP of developing countries are always understated because they value GDP in their local currency, and then exchange rate is applied. If India produces Potato of 30 millions tons, it will be valued @ Rs 4 per kg whereas same potato will be valued at $ 0.50 per pound or over $ 1 or Rs 48 in USA.
Amit
9 Feb 10 at 10:16 AM
Dear Sir,
Even i thought of the similar suggestion by Vivek. When we look at half baked people speaking in bloomberg and CNBC, why not our beloved sir.
Thanks
Jay,London , UK , Feb 09th 2010.
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 09, 2010
They do not care. I wrote to them number of times about my book and also sent Bloomberg, Hong Kong anchor Bernie Lo a hard copy for his comments – No reply. They care only for renowned names as their experts.
I was watching CNBC today, glorifying ex-Merril Chief now appointed as CEO of CIT, a bank in bankruptcy. The appointee was complimented for bringing years of experience to CIT. Now look at it. That CEO brought Merrill to bankruptcy and removed. Same guy now will try to revive another bankrupt company – CIT
Jay
9 Feb 10 at 6:47 AM
Dear Sir,
Your analysis on “Why PIGS countries are being attacked” is damn good!!! Your last 3 articles are of tremendous quality. Best piece of analysis that i have seen recently.
I recommend you to write/publish your articles at least at goldseek.com if not any other public website. The articles are just too good and should be shared with everyone as possible.
Regards,
Vivek, Gurgaon, India, 8 Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Tuesday, February 09, 2010
Good suggestion. I will consider that.
Vivek
9 Feb 10 at 12:07 AM
Sorry sir,
I lookforward your advice on investment part.
For your info: I wrote to Kotakinvestment for copying your article. let’s see what he says?
Regards
Nitin Joshi
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably. It will be deleted in future.
NITIN JOSHI
8 Feb 10 at 9:12 PM
Dear Sir,
Awaiting eagerly for your reply
Joshy Devassy
Thane/Maharashtra/India
08Feb 15.15
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
Unable to locate query. Do not post your question here, if you have not posted original query in same section before.
Joshy Devassy
8 Feb 10 at 5:51 PM
Sir,
I came across a profile under name ” Kotakinvestment” on MMB it has published exactle your article on currency war as it is under his name. Are you both same person?
Do you ahve any specific advice for small investor who it want to invest 1.olac Rs ? Which is the best option?
Thanks,.
Regards
NJ
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
Better learn to append your signature. Until such time no reply.
for your information, I am not Kotak Investment. If they have copied the article under their name, I have no idea.
NITIN JOSHI, India
8 Feb 10 at 3:12 PM
Thanks Kalidasji for beautiful analogy with Bride/Marriage. Point taken..
Regards,
Bhaskar,
Hyderabad, India
Bhaskar
8 Feb 10 at 12:56 AM
Dear Kalidas,
Just can’t believe my eyes. Wow, what an expert are you? Without much adulation, I wish to write the below and end-up with a query..
1. Beware of people who can target you for foreseeing and telling things black & white – hope you can understand. We need your service for several generations..
2. 48 hours of sleeplessness – trust me, nothing should be done at the expense of your BMS (Body, Mind & Soul) – am sure you know it. Want you to take good care of all your healths.
On query:
You may not have to wait too long for really long term investment. India, not China, will be the biggest beneficiary of this crisis.
Should we kick-start our Equity investments now? Please advise. Am sure followers of your prophecies are ready to pounce into the market with the cash balance in hand.
Take care,
GSRao, NJ, USA
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
I understand what you are trying to hint. I am used to that. I will also take care of my sleep and BMS
Since you are in USA, the time is coming soon to buy the foreclosed property at 30% to 40% discount. When the rates in US begin to move higher, the economy will go down but housing will go higher, because many would want to lock in the interest rates for 30 years at as low rate as possible. US properties at the moment are the BEST BUY. Look out for good bargains. I think you also have bigger bargains in stocks such as Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mae which may not go bankrupt due to blank cheque written by Fed/Treasury over % 400 billions.
Let the Indian market come down and buy ADRs of Satyam, MTNL, Tata Motors and Dr. Reddy there. Right now, Satyam and MTNL are big bargains. Watch and read my Indianstock observatory section on ADRs
GSRao
8 Feb 10 at 12:42 AM
Sir,
Read this article a little late. Like always , you are at your best with insightful & factual article hitting the bulls-eye. US seems to be in desperate position right now. The actions taken by Govt make no sense – all hasty actions.
I love reading your replies as much as your articles , since it is in your replies that you spill out those “Gems” like ‘why we have black fridays and mondays’!!. How true, its well known that the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbour on a sunday when Americans were all having fun.
.
Your words are as valuable as pearls to outsiders, you are a veteran insider in this game like tendulkar!. I keep requesting you to write a book “Art of investing – by Kalidas” with the hope that some day you will take the plunge
I thank my luck – for making me track you on MMB for 3 years & then when you stopped replying on MMB i tracked you to your website. Your website is getting more and more beautiful by the day. Thanks for everything that you are sharing with us.
regards
Raghav,
Mumbai,India
Raghav
7 Feb 10 at 10:32 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
At your convenience can you please advice me on my query?
In one of my earlier questions asked your advice to what currency should i convert my cash currently in CAN$ now?
Now after reading your article in which US aiming to push US$ up and pull down other currencies;
Is it a good idea to convert 25K of my CAN$ into US$ for short term gains? or Should i transfer them to INR and have them put in short term Fixed Deposit and invest when stocks touch March lows?
I am leaving some CAN$ in the account to reinvest in the COAL & Metals stocks on TSX (LUN – Lundin Mining Corp & SGQ – SouthGobi Energy Resources) from where i took my profits earlier; i heard that commodities will crash very seriously; Hoping to invest on this crash..
Thank you again sir.
Sreeram, London, UK
07 Feb 2010. 133050hrs
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
I have already replied earlier. I can not go on discussing same issue again and again. I have many other readers to handle.
Sreeram
7 Feb 10 at 9:30 PM
Kalidasji,
Excellent article!!
I am currently residing in Singapore and after going through this article I have a query – if things do play out as you have predicted, what would be the effect on the Singapore Dollar and the Indian Rupee considering the medium term (6 months) to long term (1-2 years)?
Regards,
Atul
Singapore,
07-Feb-10
Kalidas Says ….Monday, February 08, 2010
At the moment, it will move the way whole Asian region is moving. However, there is increasing possibility of UBS facing almost extinction. There are scattered reports that UBS might lose banking license in USA due to its unwillingness (Swiss Bank’s Order) to disclose the names of American Tax dodgers. If that happens, Singapore government will lose US$ 23 billions overnight. It may hurt the Sing$ temporarily. Otherwise, I do not see much harm to Singapore.
Atul
7 Feb 10 at 5:41 PM
Dear Sir,
This is Joshy Devassy here from Mumbai India.I am a govt employee who has put in16 years of hard work In Indian Railways a govt entity.I happened to stumble across your blog just around two to three days back and was amazed by the info u provided across the economies around the world.Now the reason why i am writing to you is completely different from what others write and ask for.Having worked for around 15 years with limited promotion and limited salary and unequal opputtunities now at the age of 33 i am thinking of leaving my secure govt job and trade off for a job in the cruise industry which is concentrated mainly in the US of A.But having read yourblogs i am completely scared of taking such a decision.At present i have a salary of around 700 USD.On the cruise ships i have been offered 1500 USD as starting.Counting on todays exchange rate at 46 odd to the rupee it is a well deserved hike but i am wary reading your comments about the state of US economy which would lead to weakening of the USD and strengthing of the rupee.If the Rs appreciates to around below 40 then it may be a losing proposition for me.So pls guide me as to whether i can take such a risk.And secondly what promoted me into thinking of this new job option is that cruise liners all have made record breaking sales in the past two years which we call recession years.And thirdly is the govts inaction on providing a lumpsum benefit for employees who have completed 15 years of service in case they want to retire as proposed by the VI Pay Commission.The VI PC had proposed a lumpsum 80 basic pay for all those who had put in 15 years or more service but the govt outrightly rejected it without even thinking about the financial saving it would have in lieu of salary and pension to be not given .So Sir i would be highly obliged if you within your insight guide me whether i can take this high risk step.
I am happily married with a wife and kid.My wife too is in govt service.
Joshy Joseph
Thane/Maharashtra/India.
Joshy Devassy
7 Feb 10 at 3:20 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
Thanks for providing us the feast.. of knowledge!!
To me, this article seems the most valuable, better than the ‘Tsunami’ one. Tsunami article is a kind of prophetic prediction which left us in shock & awe!! But, this article is like awarding the sight to all of us to have the ‘Darshan’ of Demonish $ rulers, with evidence that no one can have an iota of doubt.
It is really baffling to see US$ index going up and Gold going down in this volatile situation, clearly shows that something fishy.
This article provides us the consolidated/integrated view of multiple events unfolding on various fronts.. The attack on Euro, scaring the Chinese for courting Euro, Shorting the Gold etc. and the heights of the cover up: the 5.7% growth in US with so much pain still present across the system.
In the prevailing situation, US may not even allow IMF to proceed with next round of Gold sale, fearing too many buyers in the queue.
I just have the below queries in my mind.
1. How their regulatory system allowing their institutions to short the Gold without any accountability.
2. Doesn’t US legal system have any provision like our ‘PIL or RTI’ where people can ask for data on US Govt’s holding of Physical Gold.
3. I have decided to buy the physical Gold. I have zeroed in on Bank of India as they seem to be offering best price for 24 carat gold. Though you have been advocating ‘buy’ even at current price, Is it wise to wait for one more week going by the current situation. I may be sounding a bit greedy though
Appreciate your thoughts on these.
Thanks,
Bhaskar,
Hyderabad, India
Kalidas Says ….Sunday, February 07, 2010
Its free for all. It is more like riots in the street where law takes a backseat. For years, US has been redesigning its financial system to tailor its needs, to cover up their ass, and making paper derivatives as speculative covers against normal hedging operations. In India also, SEBI,NSE and BSE have started following those dangerous footsteps without any thoughts. They call themselves “reformist” but what has been happening in USA today, will happen in India after 5 to 7 years.
All future contracts or options should be “delivery based” so that people use them as “hedging instruments”. Supposing you sell short 2000 shares of RIL future with no need to deliver the scrips on expiry, then it lead to speculation. You pay 10% to 20% margin and take the enormous exposure – same practice adopted by Citigroup and almost all major brokers including Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, AIG etc. They had more free money, so they speculated without limit and finally suffered.
United States is not real democracy. The country is ruled by few politicians like President, Bureautcrats in Fed/Treasury, and in electronic world, bad assets can be transferred to other party or nation in 2 seconds. Do you think that all these Chartered Accountants and Auditors are capable of find out such irregularities or fraud? No, They have only degree behind their names. Otherwise, how a fraud like Satyam could have occurred when the company was showing over Rs 3000 crores Fixed Deposits, an easily verifiable item by even 5th class student that could not be verified by worlds leading accountats like Price Water House and Copper? Did the Association of Chartered Accountants in India suspended or revoke their license? No. They are lousy association having power but no will to implement regulations.
Buying Gold today is like visiting interview for a girl to be one’s wife. One does not wait for marriage even if there are riots in the city and curfew in force, why then for gold which is used for decorating the bride or future wife? If you wish to time the purchase, you will fail. You will never be able to buy. Waif for one week, then one more week, then one more week, then oh CNBC says this and finally bomb blasts. Then all they come here to Kalidas for help. What Kalidas can do in such cases?
Bhaskar, Hyd'bad
7 Feb 10 at 11:47 AM
Dear Sir,
I admire you and your morals. Have you heard of the ‘New World Order’ and their plans for a ‘One World Currency’ ? It will possibly be called the ‘Allied Unit’ { http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/5796892/Russian-President-Dmitry-Medvedev-pulls-new-world-currency-from-his-pocket.html}
Bush and Blair are all part of ‘Secret Societies’ [ proven facts ] . Bush,Blair,Obama etc are all in it together. No surprises. Blair knows or knew exactly what he was doing. The above are all puppets to the same ‘higher power’ with the same sinister plan for power and world domination.
I just want you to see the bigger picture as I see it. Your thoughts on this subject will have insight which I don’t have.
Thank You, Take Care & Keep Up the Good Work
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Reminder: Please append City and Country name to your signature invariably. No more lapses
I have seen those rumors. There can never be one currency, just as we can not live in joint family when it becomes too big. A currency is a fusion of political and monetary union. When the world is divided in 190+ countries, there can not be one currency. When Gandhari and Dhrutrashtra had had 100 sons as Kaurava, the Mahabharat was borne.
In India, we have 28 states, but all together, There is a political union, so there could be monetary union – that is, only one currency Rupee can be acceptable. In Europe, there is Euro but 42 different countries. It can not last there for long. When Hitler wanted to win entire Europe, he would have achieved political union, so he could have one money – German mark. But he could not sustain political union. so he lost
Cyrus
6 Feb 10 at 4:56 PM
Dear Sir,
Your article is very well written and deep founded. I have a question in this regard and would be grateful if you could take out some time to answer:
Your article essentially suggests a war on EU by America because American Govt. is like a slumlord and wants to retain its supremacy. Now, Europe is anyways in tatters (esp England and the PIIGS - Portugal, Ireland , Iceland, Greece, Spain). Does US really need to shake up the entire world markets from equities to commodities to weaken Euro and retain its no. 1 position ? America anyway is regarded as Number 1 and would be, and if anyone can pose them an economic challenge then that is China (which is globally less acceptable due to communism and english language barries)… then why this war with Europe?
Yours truly,
Ashish
Dubai, UAE
Feb 06, 2010 01:52 pm
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Because the Europe is Chinese money’s destination. When the bombs are blasting in Kashmir, do we go there? So Americans are trying to explode bombs in Europe so that Chinese do not go there.
Further, French President’s recent statement that Dollar can not remain World’s only currency is making waves on Wall Street and White House. I am told that Obama ran for bathroom a few times after hearing French President Nicolas Sarkozy statement. He will now become his Enemy No.1 in Europe
Ashish
6 Feb 10 at 4:55 PM
dear kalidas sir
it was really excellent guidance for the week, only thing i want answer is euro continent is sinking so dollar increase , and it is continous rally more n more since all euro country is problem , i think dollar will rally to 91 , so all commidty has go down more , even stock market will come dn to3800-4200 level nifty .
i expect gold to touch 960 dollar when dollar reach 91 .
i think we are in trublent time till may or june ,afterthat all will settle down n each everything go sideway for two years
arvind jain
6 Feb 10 at 3:55 PM
Respected Sir,
Pl find the following link which will support the Gold bulls and your argument. The unfolding story is interesting and exciting thanks to your enlightenment. But the consequences are very bad and sad to the world.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1265248800.php
Regards,
V.S.Kumar, Jorhat
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
The time has again to buy gold/silver aggressively. Make second stage of buying from 1050 to 1065 level. Some new central banks might emerge to buy IMF gold again. Could be India or China or some Muslim country like Indonesia or Malaysia, Russia from Northern block and Australia on east side.
V.S. Kumar
6 Feb 10 at 10:44 AM
Dear Sir,
I don’t wonder what’s happening today as I know you for the last 3-4 years.
Hats off to your greatness..!!
“Greatness is not found in possessions, power, position, or prestige.
It is discovered in goodness, humility, service, and character”
-William Ward
Warm Regards,
Dr.Srinivasa Rao Tungala,
St. Ann’s Bay,
Jamaica.
05-02-10 @ 736pm.
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
I thought you may have left Tungala. Long time no see. Wish you all the best and welcome again. Thanks for your compliments.
Srinivasa Tungala
6 Feb 10 at 8:37 AM
Anil Bhai,
The DOW and S&P were down about 1% back about an hour or so, then i visited your blog and read your recent post “World Currency War” and i also read the section “What could happen today (Friday):” and i quot;
“The US markets could also go down first, and then these wily players in New York – banks and prominent broker cum bank, Buffet’s favorite, will come out of no where about 45 minutes to 1 hour before close and reverse the trend on every exchange”
I just went back to see where the DOW and S&P were and both have staged a comeback exactly as you predicted and are currently in the positive territory wiping off the day’s loss, i just could not help but leave you a comment because you never cease to surprise me almost on a daily basis.
I do not like surprises, must stop reading your blog (ignorance is bliss at times). Now i know why you could not sleep for 48 hours when you saw those events unfolding.
Great foresight Sir, you deserve all the praise and goodness in life!
Your admirer,
Victor Junior
Delhi, India
Feb 06, 2010 02:00am
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Tks
vivek victorjunior
6 Feb 10 at 4:45 AM
Excellent analysis.
Dow Jones was down 115 points until 2:00 PM EST and just as you had predicted, it started to move up exactly at 3:00 PM and is now down only 25 points at 3:20 PM EST.
Please let us know when we should start buying India stocks again and which stocks. Always looking forward to your precious comments.
Harish Vyas
San Diego, USA
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
I do not know whether my knowledge or my luck won on Friday night. The stocks went down 167 points and rally started. CNBC anchors were non plussed. The real rally started from 3:00 PM exactly one hour before close.
When I was a stockbroker, my American mentor – Mayer Blinder and General Manager John Watton taught me – smart brokers never take lunch. They are on the field when other are lunching or drinking. The number of players are less, so they can dictate the trend. The stock comes down sharply between 12:30 to 2:00 PM and then 3:30 to 4:00 PM near close. So, the crash occurs during that time. Then Friday and Monday are heavy because lousy brokers are in hurry to leave for weekend and late to come on Monday due to laggard weekend effect. The smart brokers are there all the time. This is why we have Black Friday and Black Monday – not other days.
Even Americans lose wars on Saturday and Sunday, my study shows. When they are in relaxed mood or shaving or having fun with their girlfriends, the vietnamese or Taliban type of soldiers strike.
Harish Vyas
6 Feb 10 at 4:23 AM
Dear Anil Bhai,
This article has totally shook me up, people like me who just sit on their holdings and never sell hoping that they will inadvertently rise. I feel like i must liquidate all my holdings now, albeit a bit late but at least i will have cash.
I just hope the events take the right turn and we could avoid WW III.
Thank you for enlightening us over the years, we am hugely indebted to you.
Yours truly,
Victor Junior
Delhi, India
Feb 06, 2010 01:48am
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
The stocks are like new balls in cricket. They roll – go up (sizes) or go down (lose more wickets or losses)
New Ball, Opening Batsman = IPO, Blue chips. Large cap stocks
Middle order batsman : = FPO, facing spinners – normal market. Large and Mid cap stocks
Lower Middle order batsman: = Mid cap stocks
Tail enders: =Small cap stocks.When you feel like buying them, the game is over
vivek victorjunior
6 Feb 10 at 4:18 AM
What an article ? Well, it was thrilling to read. I generally comment in blogs only if I can add value to the authors writeup or if I disagree somewhere. Unfortunately I am not expert to add value to your write up. All I can say is its brilliant and thanks a lot for sharing your knowledge and analysis with us.
- Rajiv N, Chennnai.
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Tks
Rajiv N
6 Feb 10 at 1:57 AM
Sir,
A very nice article. I can understand your situation of not sleeping yesterday! Sometime Ignorance is Bliss! My sincere thanks for your sacrifice and for the efforts in making your readers knowledgable.
J Ganesan
Salem, T.N., South India
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Thanks
J Ganesan
6 Feb 10 at 1:16 AM
No Problem Sir..
Pls take own your time. Health is wealth..
Sreeram, London, UK
05 Feb 2010. 1655hrs
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
tks
sreeram, UK
6 Feb 10 at 12:57 AM
Dear Anilji:
Hats off to you for predicting the Currency Wars few days back and again you are spot on; Great article in simple words to understand; Wonderful work Sir;
Dear sir, in one of my earlier questions asked your advice to what currency should i convert my cash currently in CAN$ now?
Now after reading your article in which US aiming to push US$ up and pull down other currencies; Is it a good idea to convert 25K of my CAN$ into US$ for short term gains?
Thank you again sir.
Sreeram, London, UK
05 Feb 2010. 1350hrs
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
I will reply here tomorrow. I am tired having not slept for 48 hours at a stretch. good night
sreeram, UK
5 Feb 10 at 9:52 PM
Dear Anilji,
Your earlier Rating & Mating article is very useful for all of us to understand the International Economics & Politics played by US & now we are experiencing the same in the present scenario.
Many many thanks for passing WONDERFUL KNOWLEDGE to all of us.
Thanks.
Parag
Surat
India
Date: 4-2-2010
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
Tks.
Parag, Surat
5 Feb 10 at 9:51 PM
Dear sir,
I just could not keep silent after reading your superb article.I am proud that you are an Indian.Sir,India needs people like you, your foresight,crystalgazing into future is amazing!. Sir,I visualise that you receive Padmashree one day.
I know you donot like too much praise.That is why I am stoping here.Anyway I have to thank Google for directing me to your website.
Dr,shivanand Nelogal.
Ranebennur.Karnataka.India.
If you feel that it is too embarassing please delete.
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
I never feel embarrassed. Do not be apologetic. I want my readers to say or ask what they want.
Dr Shivanand Nelogal Ranebennur,Karnataka,India
5 Feb 10 at 9:20 PM
Dear Sir
Although true, it looked straight out of any war book with a mixture of betrayal, technology and all modern ways of deceit. It really shook my senses.
Im liquidating all my gold ETF on Monday. Will buy physical. Will go to the bank and get it stored in their locker.
Regards
Aditya
Mumbai-India
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
good, but do not panick. India is still safer place than others.
Aditya
5 Feb 10 at 8:26 PM
Dear Sir,
Excellent analysis, observation and what else, all i can say is ” I pray to god to wish all your dreams come true”
Thanks,
Sneshan,
Damascus, Syria
Date: 5 Feb 2010
Kalidas Says ….Saturday, February 06, 2010
tks
Sneshan
5 Feb 10 at 8:20 PM
Dear Sir,
I have been a silent follower and an ardent fan since your MMB days. Many thanks for all the efforts that you put in to keep this site with such amazing content. Heres my question -
I wanted to transfer about 10,000GBP from my UK bank to India and wanted your your opinion on the effect of the current currency situation on the GBP exchange rates. The current exchange rate is around INR 72/-. It has steadily dropped from INR 76 /- over the past couple of months. Can we expect it to fall further in which case I would transfer the money now?
Many thanks,
Ashutosh Kant, Pune
Kalidas Says ….Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Fundamentally speaking, the GBP is weaker relative to Rs, but GBP has more acceptability in international market. Phase out your remittance in 2 or 3 instalements. Any difference will even out. There is no way that you can get the highest exchange rate (in which case, GBP has to go higher against Rupee) there is a triangular equation, like love triangel, between Dollar, Rupee and British Pound. You never know which one will go higher or lower. Retain the rupee in local account so that you get higher deposit rate (7% to 8%) against <3% for NRE deposits. You will have higher rates by 4% less taxes, still higher by at least 4%
Ashutosh Kant
5 Feb 10 at 5:55 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
As usual a nice, well researched article. It is simply amazing to know the depth of your knowledge about the market, and it ‘s movement.
I am actually one from the sidelines who just swallows and digests every word, but still had to compliment you on the relation between today’s scenario and the last few articles.
Please keep up the good work !!
Kiran Patel, Mumbai, INDIA
5 Feb 10 at 4:32 PM
Dear Anil,
I know you don’t like praises and thanks. But I couldn’t control my self after reading your article.
Hats off to you. I am speechless.
Regards,
Niranjan, Doha, Qatar
Niranjan
5 Feb 10 at 4:31 PM
Dear Sir,
I have around 2.64 lakhs invested in shares at 4200 nifty levels….
At presesnt my investement is worth 2.5 lakhs..
Should I sell and get into physical gold?
Apart from the “3 months’ expenses emergency cash” that
you had advised everyone on last year,
I also have around 3 lakhs in my savings account,
should i put that into physical gold as well?
I am 29 years old
Kuldeep Singh,
Bangalore, India.
Kuldeep singh
5 Feb 10 at 4:00 PM
Anil ji,
Very well written article. hats off! Lot of signals and hints to sit on cash, but then I got confused with last line. If biggest beneficiary is going to be India, does it make sense to hold on indian equities?
Rahul
5 Feb 10 at 3:58 PM
Sir,
Thanks for this very insightful article. What is the outlook for gold in the near future ? Do you advise to sell off all Gold ETF immediately or can we wait few days/weeks for any upward movement ?
Chetana, Bangalore, India
Chetana
5 Feb 10 at 3:45 PM
I was sure about that. It was confirmed when I saw one member online besides several guests.
But what I meant was, seeing things beforehand with clarity.
Dongre, Mumbai, India, 05/02/2010
Dongre
5 Feb 10 at 3:10 PM
Dear Sir,
Thanks for such a nice and well written article sir.
-Venkat Gurukrishna
Bangalore, India
05/02/2010 12:35PM IST
Venkat Gurukrishna
5 Feb 10 at 3:05 PM
Dear Sir
Fantastic Site Layout. It looks very neat and colorful.
As Usual great Article. Hope Europeans read this and safe guard themselves.
rgds
shiva
shiva
5 Feb 10 at 3:03 PM
Dear Kalidasji,
<!– @page { margin: 2cm } P { margin-bottom: 0.21cm } –>
I think you are keeping articles ready beforehand, like the leaked obituary of Steve Jobs.
For those who would not understand my analogy, this is suppose to be a complement!!!!.
Dongre, Mumbai, India, 05/02/2010
Kalidas Says ….Friday, February 05, 2010
I did not sleep last night when I saw the disturbing trends. Tks anyway
Dongre
5 Feb 10 at 2:30 PM
Dear Anilji,
Hats off to you for the well written article. I have no words to describe your ability to visualise things correct each and everytime. Simply sensational.
Feel very lucky and thank my friend who introduced me to “anilselarka.com”
Regards,
Sonali Bhatt, Chennai, India
05/02/2010
Sonali Bhatt
5 Feb 10 at 2:03 PM