Stock Observatory India 2011-06 (June) Updated 15/June/2011

 

Commencing from 1st June, 2011

Following are the daily brief on the Indian Stocks and related items.

  1. Many of the items being of trading nature, no reply will be posted by the author. While the comment box is open for the readers, but it is meant for the readers to voice their feeling at any time. Kindly use our Confused Mind Clear Answers section to post comments for reply.
  2. All comments are in descending order (date wise)  This will be meant for short term traders and also for long term traders who may wish to cash their gains or losses due to subsequent events.
  3. We would try to pick up stocks based on last 7 days movements, news or other policy related developments. We would not write more than 4 lines, similar to Kabir’s Chopai. This is why we have sub titled it “Kalidas Chopai”. We will make a standard format with first line being a header that contains Stock name (in brief), date, time and headline. Last item will be on top. The headlines will be time based – no sorting.
  4. At month end, they will be consolidated and kept in html (searchable) or PDF format. We will also database it in FileMaker program. We will figure out ways to publish this database on web so that it becomes searchable criteria on line. If it is achieved, other html/PDF format will be discontinued. The comment box is open but we will NOT reply. It will be only one way street. The reason being that day to day movement depends on hosts of factors, previous day’s Dow, current day’s Asian performance ahead of India, currency market movements etc.
  5. In short, use our comments on “AS IS WHERE IS” basis. It may be updated twice a day, if required.
  6. There are no guarantees either. Consult your professional adviser, broker or banks before acting on our Chopai. Do it at your own risk. We are sure that this will prove to be as popular with the readers as Confused Mind Clear Answers series.

Good luck. – Kalidas (Anil Selarka)

aa

Stock Observatory India

Ref: ISO/11/NE of 2011-06-15 (India Time 9.00 am)

There will be no edition today due to my travel. Next edition will be published tomorrow.

Author

 


Stock Observatory India

Ref: ISO/11/NE of 2011-06-14 (India Time 9.00 am)

There will be no edition today due to my travel. Next edition will be published tomorrow.

Author


Stock Observatory India

Ref: ISO/11/47 of 2011-06-13 (India Time 11.10 am)

(There were no editions from 10/6 to 12/6)

Overnight Events and Effects:

  1. Markets are weaker everywhere. Dow also fell below 12000 to close at 11,951.90 (down 172 points) on news of weaker economy. Dollar rosé to 74.896 (+ 0.018) in paper trading related to opening month trades (when they buy USD and sell rest of currencies like Euro).This time the process was delayed due to weaker economic and job numbers. In any case, there is nothing in USD to gather more strength except strength in first two weeks of the month. From third week, the strength will peter out.
  2. Hong Kong is in news again. The government is inceasingly concerned at overheated property market and brought in new rules to increase the margin for high end properties costing HK$ 800,000 or more (USD 1 Million plus) and again increased margin by additional 10% to overseas buyers including mainland China who were the biggest buyers until now. With more buyers remaining absent due to higher margin, higher rates in HK$ charged by banks like HSBC, higher stamp duty (if the property is sold within 6 months of purchase) and higher additional margin for foreign buyers, will cause the property market to take tumble by at least 20% to 30% in 12 to 24 months, say various leading property analysts. In short, the Government of Hong Kong and HKMA (Hong Kong Monetary Authority) are preparing for perhaps the real worse period for its economy. The property sales have fallen by 58% in last two months alone.
  3. New Zealand is in bad news today. Another earthquake of intensity 5.5 struck today which caused generally stronger NZ$ to fall from 82+ to 81+ or about 1.25%. There will be more home coming of NZ$ which will strengthen further. It is getting stronger due to stronger economy, and now earthquake make the money returning home that add the further strength.
  4. After destroying Iraq, some US congressmen say that IRAQ must compensate US for its war efforts in their country for removing Saddam Hussein. This obviously outraged the Iraqis who called this idea as stupid idea ever heard. So they come first to destroy their country, killed millions in process, destroying almost all major assets and then asking them to compensate the destroyer – the United States – for helping them remove Saddam Hussein. Iraqis never approached US to remove the Saddam – it was their unilateral decision. Wow, destroying Iraq with their own money and claiming all credits?
  5. Gold is again in news, this time reported rumours that KITCO, one of the largest gold dealer in the world, is involved in tax related fraud in Canada. No one knows the truth, but the fact reaffirms our decision to go only for physical gold and not paper gold. In this uncertain time, no one knows who is going to fall. Except some paper products quoted on NSE, most of the paper derivatives face the risk of default. India may be excepted to some extent, but please investigate where the ETF or funds are going to park the gold – in India or abroad. This is more critical than ever before.
  6. Gold again came in news that “FED does not have any Gold but Gold Certificates” This was a funny debate before the Senate where FED’s attorneys faced the Senate committee, especially Ron Paul. It will take some time for this news to dissiminate and after about 15 days or so, there is going to be huge cry about the non existence of gold or gold held by the United States. If Treasury holds the gold instead of Fed, then again the question will arise what is the meaning of earmarked gold upto 6297 tons out of 8134 tons of gold held and shown in the Fed’s balance sheet. We believe that After about 15 to 45 days, the real clamour of Gold’s disappearance is going to make “headlines” in United States. That is when the Europeans will ask FED to return their gold physically (not on paper). FED has played its card well by fronting Attorneys before the Senate, and not Bernanke or Giethner, but the demand are sure to be raised for their submissions under Oath.

Asian Markets today

NIKKEI – Japan at 9433 (-80 ). Again spate of negative news that the economy is slumping again. Nothing new but the headlines make the difference.
Hang Sang -HK at 22,246 (-174 ) slumping due to property related bad news. It will become worse, so expect the market to slump to 18000 or below in slow poison.
SENSEX – India at 18,142 (-125) – again weaker due to slow down feared to worsen further. Hey, one of the largest dealer in money market – JuliusBaer – is asking RBI to adopt measures such as Quantitative Easing (QE) which has already failed in United States. Such devilish thoughts will now enter RBI Think Tank, so let us see what RBI does in future.

Currency:

US$ Index at 74.87 (+0.018 ) False strength. Many are advising that weakness are in emerging markets and not in United States whereas the actual picture is other way round. There used to be an idiom “Naach na jaane angan tehda” . Hear this song in “Padosan” – ek chatur naar

Commodities

Oil at 98.8 slightly down and consolidating. It may rise soon towards the fourth week of June
Gold at 1532 (-2) Open Interest at 340,400. Gold is going to enter the bullish phase, come June end or begin July – the beginning of holiday season in United States when the people go out with their families after school vacation. The holiday period ends in August or in first week of September when the Fund Managers return.
Silver at 35.88 (-0.44) Open Interest reduced to 47,295. It looks like that the position is being rolloed over to next future months (after July)

Stocks: Our Observations and Comments

  1. Reliance Industries Ltd: buying Bharati’s stake in Axa’s joint venture in life insurance and general insurance. Good move by Mukesh Ambani at critical time. It wil make good money. We still rate the Reliance Industries Ltd as strong buy but the timing to buy is varied due to bad news from its Gas production site. RIL has most beneficial advantage – enormous cash when the rates are going higher and higher, making credit very expensive. Most of India’s coroporates are highly leveraged, so RIL is the only KING in the market followed by ITC and perhaps some software companies like TCS, HCL, Satyam, WIPRO etc. They are no longer match of what RIL has.
  2. Bharati will get lot of cash, so it will be in better mode to invest into its core business – Telecom. Short term, Bharati may do well but the question is how long the telco companies will underprice their products? Like government subsidizing petrol, diesel and gas prices, the private telco companies have been subsidizing the consumers on their products. Their accounting treatment of revenue is so weird that it is almost impossible to work out the real profitability of telco companies. I therefore stay away and rely on much simpler companies and companies with less product diversifications with simple business models like that of Mom and Pop stores.
  3. YOGIS and BHOGIS are at clobber head. Tax hounds (dogs) are after Baba Ramdev. The puzzling question was why did he come to the political picture against corruption when he knew very well that nothing will happen. Now, more and more bad news about him and his companies will be fed by the Corrupt Congress government headed by Sadaar ManMohan Singh, the protectorate of corrupt regime and ministers. His warning is “Do not point fingers of corruption at us – we will let lose the Tax Dogs after you and send you the Tihar Prison. If Baba Ramdev did not die of voluntary “fast unto death”, he will die finally in some remote Jail fully starved because prison food is not suitable for Yogis. Reverse counting has begun for Ramdev. Same may happen to Hazare in future.
  4. Maruti is in center of attention. Now it says that it may recognise the cometing union. So labors are taking hold of control in one of the best auto manufacturers. All is not well with Maruti.
  5. Almost all funds are negative on India’s growth story, picture of inflation and about possible rate hikes in the RBI’s policy decision on June 16. They advise RBI to hike the rates, but no fund manager worth the name has ever asked RBI to allow Rupee to rise to contain inflation. RBI is getting wrong advices from press and funds and it has mortgaged its own brains to outsiders. God save India

 

Stock Swap:(All in Rupees)

SELL @< or > SWAP to @< or > Reason in brief
ICICI/SBI CMP IDBI BANK CMP Better prospects
LT CMP RIL CMP Better prospects

Kalidas One Liner

  • None today. I am still having hangover from long flight

Kalidas Chopai

PEP = Preferred Entry Point

Stock CMP Rs PEP CMP
None today
Ref. No. 11/KC/00 Date: 2011.05.16 Target (3M) Rs. SENSEX at

OVER


Stock Observatory India

Ref: ISO/11/46 of 2011-06-09 (India Time 7.30 am)

Overnight Events and Effects:

  1. Dow slumped marginally on sixth day in a row but on slowing volume and intensity. OPEC did not raise the production target, against market expectations, causing rally in oil prices by over 2%. It sets the target at $100~120 as reasonable. At least it sets at rest the uncertainty with regard to production. Saudi Arabia has vowed to raise its production unofficially but its production capacity is also stretched. The world needs to have some alternative supply of oil to overcome OPEC cartel. Dollar remained weak on Bernanke assessment, and European problems remain where they were before.

Asian Markets today

NIKKEI – Japan Can not update today
Hang Sang -HK Can not update today due to my travel
SENSEX – India May respond to open lower first but recover later. No stock specific news. OPEC news is neutral to negative because lower oil prices can not be expected due to rise in production.

Currency:

US$ Index at 73.79 (-0.124 ) – on slow poison pill. Deterioating. However, everything fell – dollar, Dow, Japan, Gold and Silver too.
No other commentary today on currencies.

Commodities

Oil at 101.27 (+0.53 ) Bad news for Pranab Mukherji. He now has OPEC price target of $100 to $120 which means that the subsidy may rise. He will have no alternative to raise the diesel and kerosene price but he has enemy in Hazare and Baba Ramdev who are after Government to rein in the corruption if not inflation. The people are showing increasing support to these people
Gold at 1536 (-2 ) Open Interest at 335,826 . We believe that Gold may begin to rise soon.
Silver at 36.64 ( ) Open Interest at 51,381. They still try to suppress the price whenever they rise. At one time, the prices were forced down to almost $35 but there are real buyers this time. Still physical buying is recommended as the future game is too treacherous due to exchange dominated fraud.

Stocks: Our Observations and Comments

  1. Tata Motors is back in news today especially its debt which has seen its CDS (Credit Default Swap) rising from low of 196 basis points to 426 basis points in 6 months. In one month alone, the spread has risen from 250 basis points to 426 basis points. One basis point = 1/100 %, that is, 426 BP = 4.26%. Higher the spread, higher the risk of default perceived by the market. Is something wrong with Tatas? We do not know as yet. The stock may remain weak for a while.
  2. IDBI Bank is slated to gain from listing of CARE in which it holds over 26%. This issue may be taken up by large institutiional investors unless the market becomes very unstable. This issue is not affected by the development of inflation or interest rates. We have mentioned about this aspect more than 6 months ago stating that IDBI bank has lot of hidden assets which will get it good gain in future. CARE is the first of such move. We rate IDBI bank as better buy than other banks. While banking sector is weak and may get weaker day by day, this bank stock may outperform others. It may gain to Rs 210 in less than 18 months.
  3. A good policy move, though on paper, that the Government of India is going to finalize National Manufacturing Policy under which it wants to create over 100 Million jobs by 2025 – a very tall claim. Nevertheless, it is better to create jobs in manufacturing rather than in finance or insurance. However, the government says one thing and go on promoting the finance sector, especially the development of CDS derivative market by SEBI recently. Both work at cross purposes.
  4. In recent article Scams, Scandals and Stock Market, we touched upon the scam related to TDR or Transfer of Development Rights – a paper assets when not used. DB Realty came up with latest fall in its profit to Rs 11 crores only in last quarter, and also mentioned its holding of TDR assets of 1 Million Sqauare Feet in Mahul slum area. Reminds me of “Slumdog Millionaire”. If the market tumbles more, and it is all the more likely, the companies like DB Realty will find difficult to cash on such assets because its debt financing is telling on them dearly.
  5. A real growth industry in India will be Courier and Air Cargo services which is expanding fast and inviting Foreign Carriers into this country. The domestic cargo carriers are struggling due to lack of resources and funds, whereas foreign cargo companies like TNT is expanding. It is more than likely that there will be many take overs in this industry. Look out for potential candidate who could be take over. The foreign carriers have their own Air planes which domestic carriers can not afford. They will have to sell their business.
  6. RCOM could be a buy. Having failed in selling its tower business to GMR Infrastructure who never had money, it appears that some major foreign private equity firms are showing interest into this business. Anil Ambani has no choice but to sell its Tower business and reduce the debt. It should focus only on how to add value to its telecom business. If the readers are holding RCOM shares then they may buy more in correction, although it may be a speculative move, because it is more than likely that the buyers will be found. Without this information China Development Bank would not have financed its last tranche. old holders need not book loss for the time being. For new entrants, it could be a reasonable yet risky point of entry. No specific target except about 25% rise in prices to maximum Rs 120 because foreign private equity players may buy the business direct rather than buying stake into RCOM entity – where relative risk profile is high.

 

Stock Swap:(All in Rupees)

SELL @< or > SWAP to @< or > Reason in brief
None today

Kalidas One Liner

  • None today as I am about to travel today

Kalidas Chopai

PEP = Preferred Entry Point

Stock CMP Rs PEP CMP
None today 

 

Ref. No. 11/KC/00 Date: 2011.05.16 Target (3M) Rs. SENSEX at

OVER


Stock Observatory India

Ref: ISO/11/45 of 2011-06-08 (India Time 9.30 am)

Overnight Events and Effects:

  1. Dow down marginally but dollar index slightly up. No significant news but the feeling is bit negative. The hopes and optimism is fading right now. I used to get property listing from one of the Agent who used to quote always over USD 330,000 to 360,000 for 2BHK Apartment, but of late, I am getting offers from USD 269,000 to 290,000 – still there are no buyers. Wall Street gave one article that focuses on second mortgage owners who are in deep underwater. I do not know how but that’s the news. Never borrow too much against property, is the rule.
  2. News on Indian front are not so good. EGOM has been cancelled which now defers the decision to raise the diesel and kerosene, gas prices. Negative for OMC but good for the market which may react positively due to good monsoon and lack of inflationary factor – who cares for budget deficits by the way.
  3. Government of India is trying to use the foreign governments to seize the balances held by the tax evaders. Looks like the government is either desperate or acting in reply to Baba Ramdev’s allegations. No foreign government is going to act on such matters.
  4. ONGC issue may be deferred again due to poor sentiments caused by deferment of increase in diesel prices.
  5. RIL is in deep soup again. This time its well D6 is reportedly not doing well and the gas production originally estimated over 88mmpd is now estimated at 44 mmpd, loss of 50%. Either original production was overstated or present difficulties are overstated. Once the diesel and gas prices are raised, D6 will begin to work with optimum capacity. Mukesh has become a “shaitan”
  6. Loss of gas production by 50% may force India to import more of gas from Qatar and Australia. The news is good for Petronet. Bad news for RIL is good news for Petronet which may be a trading buy. It is still expensive stock but it is on much better ground.
  7. Gujarat state is on upswing now. Ford motors is scouting sites for plant in Maharashtra or Gujarat. With Narendra Modi sitting with pen ready to sign the favorable deals, Gujarat may become another Auto hub after Maharashtra and Tamilnadu. Good for India for balanced development.

Asian Markets today

NIKKEI – Japan at 9,404 (-38 ) mainly due to higher Yen which has broken again 80 level.
Hang Sang -HK at 22,672(-192 ) again lower by significant amount. Hong Kong market is now poised for long term decline now
SENSEX – India 18,429 (- 62) on the back of Asian markets. However, other India specific news being good – deferment of diesel prices (to take away inflation) and stable interest rates (not higher for the time being), it appears that the markets may recover as the day progresses.

Currency:

US$ Index at 73.65 (+ 0.13) Marginal rise in spite of weaker picture. May not sustain this time.
Yen Pushing higher, this time on news that China is buying Japanese bonds to diversify its reserve. We do not believe in this story.
AU$, Can$ Commodity currencies weaker on the back of weaker base metals and steel. Since India and China are chasing coal mines in Australia which may also create further regular demand for coals, we are more bullish on Australia than Canada.

Commodities

Oil at 98.66 (-0.65) on expectation that OPEC may increase the oil production. We do not believe it. The major brokers are touting this and take just opposite position.
Gold at 1,541 (-2 ) Down marginally. Do not worry. It is on right track. Open Interest at 337,871 ( ) . The traders are trying to suppress the gold price below $1535 level again. However, the physical gold is cheaper than other assets.
Silver at 36.86 (-0.18 ) Open Interest at 53,796( ). Silver is turning stronger than gold now. It looks like that Silver may outperform Gold but we have to see the trend for next two days before concluding. Buy Physical Silver and stay with it.

Stocks: Our Observations and Comments

  • Down in reaction to weaker Asian markets. But will recover later in the day to close in positive territory.
  • RIL may go down, OMC may remain stable at the most. Trend will be weaker
  • Better focus on Satyam now at 88 which is buy opportunity. All news are on good front
  • Bank stocks may perform better due to deferment of diesel prices.

Stock Swap:(All in Rupees)

SELL @< or > SWAP to @< or > Reason in brief
Oil stocks at CMP Petronet CMP Temporary move to earn short term
Bank stocks >1000 UCO and others CMP Temporary move.

Kalidas One Liner

  • None

Kalidas Chopai

PEP = Preferred Entry Point

Stock CMP Rs PEP CMP
None
Ref. No. 11/KC/00 Date: 2011.05.16 Target (3M) Rs. SENSEX at

OVER


Stock Observatory India

Ref: ISO/11/44 of 2011-06-07 (India Time 11.20 am)

Overnight Events and Effects:

  1. US markets slid again to 12,090 (-61 points) as delayed reaction of large funds to latest economic news of slowing economy, high unemployment rates and less than expected new jobs. No one asks when the job were created even by 54,000, why the unemployment rates rise to 9.1%? Counting 0.2 increase in unemployment rates on 330 millions of US population, it means that unemployment rosé by 70,000 at least. If 54,000 jobs were created,then 124,000 people lost the job. I never believe in published figures of US
  2. Hong Kong is back in news with money market tightening for HK$. Much of the growth in deposit stemmed from Chinese Yuan which is rising and the people are parking money in that currency due to higher rates and appreciation potential. HSBC raised the mortgage rates in April and may raise the rates again soon due to funding cost of HK$ having gone up. No one wants to park money in HK$ and as such there is not enough funds in Hong Kong banks in HK$ deposits. The mortgage rates rise to 2.5% over HIBOR as against 0.5% in most of the cases. As such, steep rise in mortgage rates may spell serious troubles for HK property market where the April sales were down by as much as 36%
  3. In India, SEBI is playing destructive roles in denying convertability of IDRs into overseas shares of Standard Chartered. Why SEBI is coming up with this kind of funny rules now? Why did it permit listing of IDRs at that time. It goes without saying that ADR. GDR or IDR does imply convertibility into underlying shares. By denying such convertibility, SEBI is seen as “unfriendly” to foreign companies seeking listing into India and may as well cause death of the IDR market. Standard Chartered should have been complimented for starting IDR, a natural replacement of ADR or GDR. We consider StanChart IDR as strong buy opportunity regardless of the SEBI decision. It is a high quality bank, and surely it will reward investors sooner or later. SEBI may regret its decision later for killing the golden goose.
  4. Kingfisher is in news again. It is deferring its plan to list ADR/GDR of US$ 300 millions obviously due to poor market. What we fail to understand is why the hell they are using ADR/GDR route when the Indian market is very much strong. They should have pitched the shares at discount to say Rs 30 or below to make it a success. It may be noted that most of Kingsisher debt is secured by the banks by pledge of its parent’s shares. In worse scenario, the parent companies shares will be sold by the pledgee banks to realize their dues leaving the Airline company with little debt, and may be UB Group may get more stake in the Airline. Let the stock slide to between 20/30 when one can buy it.
  5. Let us wait for OPEC decision tomorrow. the markets may react only on 9th June and more decisively by June 10 if the EGOM decide on oil policy.
  6.  

Asian Markets today

NIKKEI – Japan at 9,452 (+72 ). There are reports of TEPCO bankruptcy (TEPCO is a owner and operator of nuclear plants that were damaged by Tsunami and Quake. Yen is close to 80 which may be breached very soon. Never bet on Japanese – they are not humans but humanoids.
Hang Sang -HK at 22,784 (-165 ) Weak on property market news and also weaker Dow. The funding cost is rising in HK$ for all banks that causes the mortgage rates to rise. In short, the pressure is rising indirectly on HK$ to de-link from Peg. Read our article on HK$ Peg published recently (paid version only)
SENSEX – India 18,417 (down only 2 points). Still very expensive market. however, focus only on stock specifics.

Currency:

US$ Index at 73.93 (-0.016 ). Economy news hurting dollar badly. However, paper trading in beginning of month is keeping it alive. The Gold and Silver should have risen but they do not due to manipulative tactics of the concerned exchanges.
Aussie $ Seen rising. Rates remained stable at 4.75% and with unemployment falling and more and more demand for coal mines from India and China, the milions of tons of exports of coal from Australia to India and China will ensure firmness in Aussie dollar. We prefer however NZ$

Commodities

Oil at 98.41 (-0.60 ). Weaker due to market rumors that OPEC may raise the production of oil to counter the Libya’s stoppage of oil to world market. We disagree and believe that OPEC may cut the production and may give new higher range of Oil prices. Let us see
Gold at 1,545(-2) Open Interest at 336,027. Seen stable due to weaker US economy and prospects of Bernanke resorting to QE3 in some different name.
Silver at 36.68 (0.12 ) Open Interest at 54,810 – the reduction of OI interest falling suggest that the market is abandoned by many silver speculators. However, physical market still strong. It is time to accumulate the Silver physically as it is more dangerous to trade the futures due to COMEX fraud.

Stocks: Our Observations and Comments

  • Satyam having traded at 92.65 a day before is trading low below 90s again. Still a Buy upto Rs 92 with 12M target at Rs 160. Short term (3M) the stock may rise between 108/120 in lower and upper range.
  • Reliance is gaining. We are very positive about this company in entire corporate scene after IOC.
  • CIPLA is seen gaining. It is usually staid stock but seen coming back of late.

Stock Swap:(All in Rupees)

SELL @< or > SWAP to @< or > Reason in brief
JSW Steel <960 Tata Steel <600 Low growth to high growth
All banks trading >1000 IDBI Bank <131 Low growth to high growth

Kalidas One Liner

  • None

Kalidas Chopai

PEP = Preferred Entry Point

Stock CMP Rs PEP CMP
None today
Ref. No. 11/KC/00 Date: 2011.05.16 Target (3M) Rs. SENSEX at

OVER

 


 

 

 


Stock Observatory India

Ref: ISO/11/43 of 2011-06-06 (India Time 10.30 am)

Overnight Events and Effects:

  1. Worst data on job front when the jobs added were just 54,000 against over 200,000 expected drove down the stocks in US. The dollar index took heavy beating going down to less than 73 for the first time in several months. The Asst Treasury Secrtary expressed the desperation that they simply do not have idea how to resolve the housing mystery. They are now willing to listen to new idea. However, Kalidas’ letter to the White House remain unaswered, Kalidas will write to Treasury separately tomorrow.
  2. All hopes of economic recovery is dashed now for the time being. In fact, there were never any recovery at first place. Only the stock markets were rising. Even in India, where the SENSEX is still over 18,000, the companies like SAIL has deferred the FPO on the ground of poor market. If the markets were so poor, why the hell the SENSEX is trading in bullish territory at over 18000? Either the Index is wrongly placed or there is real problem in funding. Indian markets are slated for heavy fall in months to come in spite of timely monsoon which started in Mumbai 3 days ahead of schedule. We will know more about monsoon in July.
  3. Coming to monsoon, we expect heavy downpour in many catchment area, flooding in North East India, and also down the Ganges, kaveri and Narmada stream. We expect this time Green Draught due to excessive rain. Our assessment is based on world wide phenomenon in USA and rest of the world. Only Punjab region will survive because it is at the top of the slope. Expect some serious flooding in Yamuna in the month of July (end) or beginning of August.
  4. Again our emephasis on Oil prices. With dollar plunging and Euro surging, the oil prices are headed north. We will know more on June 8 (OPEC meeting) and June 9 (EGOM outcome). If they do not decide now, ONGC issue may be postponed. This appears a distinct possibility.

Asian Markets today

NIKKEI – Japan at 9,403 (-89 ). Yen is surging to 80.53. If it falls below 79, hell with let lose in Forex market. Higher yen and almost certainty of political instability in Japan with falling dollar and weaker economy, the Yen is likely to enter the bullish phase again. This time, it will go and test the old level of 75.8 hit recently. Home coming of Yen is gaining momentum.
Hang Sang -HK at 22,949 (-304 ) Mimicking US markets. Hang Sang is finding extremely difficult to go higher. With dollar falling and prospect of interest rate higher, the demand for HKD appreciation will come out more in open in less than 3 months.
SENSEX – India at 18,295 at the moment of this writing. It may fall to less than 18,200 during the day as the day progresses. If there is rally, better be a seller.

Currency:

at 73.712 (-0.07 ) The Index was saved from disaster. It is weak and the government forces are behind the support. It is almost certain that Dollar is slated to lose almost 4% in few weeks to test the level of 71. There is absolutely no driver at the moment. US Unemployment rates has reversed the course and stands weaker at 9.1 

 

There are also rumors that refined version of QE2 might be announced soon with some new names. QE3 term may not be used.

 

The talks on debt limit is again hitting snag. Republicans are adamant that they would want budgetary cut before approving the higher debt limit. We do not know whehther Republicans are just making “show” or serious in intent. Earlier we took the view that the debt limit agreement may be reached after hard nose haggling, but now we are not sure. Next few days will decide.

Euro Rising to near a few weeks high. May sustain until it reaches 1.48
Rupee
Can$ It is at attractive level and may rise in near future to test the level of 92
NZ$ Although lower at 81.59, we are sure that it will breach the level of 82 decisively. Compared to AUD, we prefer NZD

Commodities

Oil at 100.02 ( ). Kept in control by Govt aided banks and brokers. June 8 and that’s all.
Gold at 1545 (+4.6 ) Open Interest at 343788. after hitting high at 1550. There were reports that Garner, a leading bull on Gold sold out 50% of his holding at about $1520 anticipating bear phase in gold in future. After his selling, the gold prices are up by 2%. Let the gold test the level of $1565 and cross it decisively. Please go on taking profits on 70% of your positions as the paper trading are at the highest level. There is some demand from Ron Paul and some other Fed watcher asking FED to sell gold and adjust the budget deficit. They do not know that the FED does not have gold to sell, they shorted it long time ago. US may have at the most gold <1000 tons with most of 7000 tons heavily sold in short selling.
Silver at 36.75 (+0.55 ) Open Interest at 58,890. Current scenario does not help in holding Silver position on long term basis. (except 30%). The devils are at play but now they too are worried about the US economy.

Stocks: Our Observations and Comments

  • Reliance Industries Ltd: Although the AGM was disappointing, we take extremely bullish view. The RIL declaration that the company will be debt free by 2012 is extremely positive statement. No where in the world such large company will be debt free. Not even Exxon or Dutch Shell or British Petroleum. In era of rising interest rates, which are close to 11%, Cash is king and the king is undisputed Reliance. With its emphasis on Reliance Retail segment, we strongly suspect that Reliance Retail might be hived off as separate subsidiary during this year as soon as retail policy is announced. It is possible that Reliance Retail will have tie up with French tie up with Carrefour because Mukesh Ambani has been using the terms Cash and Carry too often. Current holders of Reliance Industries Ltd might benefit from Free shares. Even gas operation might be hived off later. All will raise enormous cash for RIL to make it one of the most liquid company on this planet. Its debt rating too might come to higher investment grade. BUY Reliance now and stay with it regardless of market. Go on adding to position.
  • StanChart IDR dropped massive 16.7% on news SEBI did not permit conversion of IDR into shares. Why? No one knows. It is excellent opportunity to buy this IDR. Buy first and Ask the questions later please.

Stock Swap:(All in Rupees)

SELL @< or > SWAP to @< or > Reason in brief
Any stock >1000 RIL <950 Best BUY
Any bank stock >100 StanChart IDR <100 Sudden fall due to SEBI news buy opportunity. Good quality

Kalidas One Liner

  • Yogi Baba Ramdev could not hold his anger as required from Yogi and got anry at the government. Government may let TAX Dogs to run after this Yogi soon. Corrupt people know only one thing – survive at any cost
  • While Mukesh Ambani says that his RIL will be debt free by 2012, it looks like Anil Ambani has prepared the statement to be read before his wife Tina that he would be bankrupted by 2012. He has no money, no gas, no new ideas and he is going on expending, expending and expending his way to bankruptcy. This is why we suggested once that “SELL ANIL AMBANI and SWAP INTO Mukesh Ambani”

 


 

 

Kalidas Chopai

PEP = Preferred Entry Point

Stock Reliance Industries Ltd CMP Rs 935 PEP CMP
The company is going into right direction. Its statement that the company will be debt free in 2012 is very serious. In era of high interest rates, RIL will be the king. Expect spin off of his Reliance Retail and Reliance Gas venture soon, at least in next 12 months, which will make it not only debt free but also improve his Investment rating to highest level. There could be heavy pay off in cash dividend too by 2012 or dividend rate may be increased little bit.
Ref. No. 11/KC/00 Date: 2011.06.05 Target (6M) Rs.1035 SENSEX at 18,395

OVER

 

Stock Observatory India

Ref: ISO/11/nn of 2011-06-04 (India Time 10.00 am)

THERE WILL BE NO EDITION TODAY. Please visit tomorrow. – AUTHOR


Stock Observatory India

Ref: ISO/11/42 of 2011-06-03 (India Time 11.30 am)

Overnight Events and Effects:

  1. Dow dropped again by 49 points after previous day loss of 279 points, to close at 12,248 on reports of slowing economy, weak housing and lack of improvement on job front with employers hiring less than expected. However, read the loss in Dow with loss in dollar index and also gains in Gold, and unconfirmed and speculative reports emerging that the US does not have gold as touted (which we conclusivelyt proved almost 1 1/2 years back in our book, and the chapter on Gold titled “Where is McKenna’s Gold?”
  2. With Dow trading near all time high, the reports go on appearing that the financial crisis is not over yet. In that case, why the equities are trading so high as they are now. And if equities are 6 months ahead indicator, why nothing is happening for over 2 years by now in economy? Either equities are overvalued or there are paper trading related manipulations.
  3. No major news except some hopes pinned on Greece. Let Moody say what they want, the countries do not go belly up easily. Look at US itself which has trillions of dollars of debts and yet it is rated AAA by US based rating agencies Moody and S&P – on what basis only they know. These agencies are simply ****ing up other countries with hidden agenda. However, we have to go by what they say and believed rather than what should be or what is right. The color of Money is Green (USA) or Red (China) and the whole world oscilated in between
  4. After all commodities, they now chose “RICE” which is expected to surge 50% in Thailand if one party wins the election. Like stocks where the money rotates from blue chips to mid caps to small caps to lousy shares, the commodites are following same pattern. One is rising after the other. In short, inflation is rising at fantastic pace, but no one takes food prices as real indicator of inflation. Only when the violence starts, the food prices will be taken into account for inflation.
  5. Scandals in India is surging day by day, and like in super bull market when the market rises to the top in frantic buying, the correction sets in. Similarly in India, it is good thing to get the corruption at high places to come out one after the other. The morning dawn comes after bleak night and darkness. So when all corruption comes up before everyone, there will be left nothing in behind the curtain, and the ugly show ends. I think that we are near the gate of new era when even the tap water will be as holy as that of reiver Ganga or Ganges.
  6. Most of the players in recent scam are from South India where easy money has flowed. Earlier years were seeing the corruption in Bihar (considered the most corrupt state at one time), Uttar Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Now these states have been cleansed up and the dirty rivers are found in Hyderabad, Tamilnadu and other parts of South India. See the names – Raju, Raja, Venkatpalli, Maran, Dayanidhi or Kalanithi – all wearing one or the other lungis. We now have highest level of corruption in South India. What started at the top in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are cascading down to South India which will be washed out soon to have almost clean India. Then, we will have real growth
  7. All eyes are on US Job market data. I am sick of it but we have to read them anyhow because they are the market movers. For me, the important financial event is scheduled on June 8 when the OPEC will announce the Oil Production and Price policy.
  8. In India, one day later, Pranab will decide on diesel, kerosene, gas and petrol prices. He is a finance minister who decides on Oil related matters. No one is doing their own job and peeping into other Ministers’ portfolio. Non one tells Pranab – Mind Your own Business”

Asian Markets today

NIKKEI – Japan at 9,504 (-50 ) The Prime Minister survived in his job. He is umpteenth Prime Minister in recent memory. Japan is on “Auto Pilot”. No one knows what other is doing. Chalne do.
Hang Sang -HK at 23,187 (-66 ) The index is still not tiring within narrow range.
SENSEX – India at 18,623 or up 129 points.

Currency:

US$ Index at 74.31 (-0.016 ) with Euro rising but the Gold held up in reins and Silver still collapsing as we have forecast correctly that beginning June, these metals will correct due to active paper trading at the behest of some interested quarters promoted by respective Exchanges and the Administration.
Euro is gaining smartly with dollar bulls exasperated at sheer survival of Greece in spite of massive co-ordinated attack. That German lady Merkel is shrewd enough to let the western design fail. All other currencies are falling except Euro
NZ$ 81.56 and still strong. It will move higher

Commodities

Oil at 100 – Stable – Wait until June 8
Gold at 1532 (-3 ) Open Interest at 340,243 ( from 330,819) . At one time the short sellers caused it to drop to $1520 in massive swoop in few minutes but it rebounded. Short sellers are active as seen from rise in short interest.
Silver at 35.85 (-0.20 ) Open Interest at 57,741. Lost $3.00in last 3 days. The exchanges – COMEX, ICE and CME group are colluding with big short sellers. Expect good numbers for JP Morgan this time. Massive short selling going on. Be careful. This time around they want to push down the Silver prices close to $33.50 level, it appears. Buy at that time.

Stocks: Our Observations and Comments

  • SUN TV – most popular company in South India which commands over 70% in Ad revenue. Political scandal for promoters brother Dayanidhi Maran caused steep fall by envious competitors but it rebounded quickly. Good trading Buy
  • Spicejet: also suffered same fate as Sun TV. It is very attractive to buy. Uptoday at Rs 36, it is still a good buy in slow accumulation basis. We have to have bad news to buy the stock cheap.
  • Anil Ambani is rebounding, Many of his stocks up on news that the courts threw away petitions against him. Courts have assumed a new rôle in Indian Capitalism – they have more say than the legislators who drafted the law. They do not decide on real cases which are still piling up but go on listening cases involving listed companies. Looks like almost all Judges have good exposure to stock market.
  • Be a seller today and tomorrow and also on Monday and Tuesday. The market may gain another 200 points before collapsing after June 9 when it will start its downdrift for a long time. Buy only battered stocks like SUN TV and Spicejet now.
  • SAIL deferred FPO, so also many companies in the line have decided to withdraw. What these companies were doing when their Share prices were almost twice the curent level?
  • I was told that Satyam ADRs are doing really well with good volume too. They are one of the most valuable ADRs. MTNL is another ADR or stock which will be second class winner.
  • Petronet is expanding its gas purchase arragements by entering into agreement with Russia’s Gazopram to buy 25 mmpd of Gas. The company is expanding very fast and it is not so cheap at the moment
  • Gujarat is expanding on all 4 cyindedrs. Expect its Port operations of Mundra Port, Pipavav Port and Hazira to do well. Adani Enterprise has turned out to be shrewd and timely investors.
  • Watch out for Solar stocks world over. India too not far behind. The hunt for alternative energy is on and gaining momentum. This is where the growth stocks will come. Gas and Solar stocks are going to be leaders. We identified Gas stocks almost 18 months back and started recommending them strongly with Petronet at Rs 38, GSPL at 28 etc and see them where they are now.

 

Stock Swap:(All in Rupees)

SELL @< or > SWAP to @< or > Reason in brief
Any stock <300 SUN TV CMP 30% fall is steep enoug to buy

Kalidas One Liner

  • None today

OVER


Stock Observatory India

Ref: ISO/11/41 of 2011-06-02 (India Time 10:00 am)

Overnight Events and Effects:

  1. Dow slumped with a thud as expected due to multiple factors – the prime being the rejection of $2.4 trillion increase in debt limit. Another major factor was the poor housing, employment and other numbers which confirmed the slowing economy. The Dow dropped massive 279 points to close at 12,290. USD did not fall as much, in fact it improved in paper trading in beginning of this month.
  2. The rating and mating game continued with Moody downgrading Greece debt by huge 3 slabs downward. It still does not downgrade the United States debt rating but goes on lowering the rating of Greece and Portugal. it is a deliberate move to destroy Euro but the Europeans are not able to see this ugly design.
  3. Everyone says that OPEC might raise the production. We do not see that. Let us face the facts on June 8.
  4. Oil Ministry is wielding weapons in the dark. Instead of charging more for diesel, it has found scapegoat to punish the diesel operated vehicles. There is a saying in Gujarati “Paada na vanke, pakhali ne daam” that is, the wrong doers is allowed the scot free and innocents are punished. Why they have been twisting their hands to catch the ears? Just let the diesel prices go higher and be done with it. Everywhere in the world, the diesel prices are HIGHER than the petrol prices by almost10% whereas they are 30% lower in India. That is, clear difference of nearly 40%.
  5. Morgan Stanley has come out with most bullish prediction about the SENSEX with markets touching almost 22,000 in spite of higher oil prices, higher rates, slowing production, slowing GDP etc. It looks like they have made error in calculation and instead of deducting one figure they have added. No one verifies the arithmetical accuracy or spreadsheet. They are not subject to audit while issuing recommendations. Even if we believe them, which Index stock will rise so much to cause SENSEX to rise by 23% from current level? ONGC, no, ICICI – No, SBI – No. Reliance No, then which Index heavy weighter to rise? Good luck to Morgan Stanley and consolation to their customers. Our target is less than 14000 vs 22000 of Morgan Stanley – let us see who is right or near to the target.
  6. Asian markets lower due to lower GDP expectation. When the markets rise, they say the economies are improving and when the market tanks they say that the growth is slowing down. These analysts are like “Red Worms” who have mouth at either end.

Asian Markets today

NIKKEI – Japan at 9,568 (-150 ) Nothing special to write about except that Yen strengthened as expected by us yesterday.
Hang Sang -HK at 23,284 (- 342 ) on the back of steep fall in Dow.
SENSEX – India May drop in sympathy with the world market. May tank by about 300 points and will recover nearly the end of the day.

Currency:

US$ Index at 74.80 (+0.30 ) – Paper trading operation started. Why should USD move up when the Dow tanks, home prices are considered near to 2002 level (Wall Street Report today), job generation very poor (rosé only by 44,000 against 150,000 expected), consumer confidence lower and no deal yet on raising debt limit which was rejected by the Congress officially. Just paper trading.
Swiss Franc This is the only currency that rosé smartly. That is, the investors are taking refuge in gold backed currency. Almost all currency tied to USD Index fell in paper trading.
Rupee Finally came down below Rs 45 but the bias is still negative. Watch for EGOM decision on June 9 or June 120 morning.

Commodities

Oil at 99.73 ($ 4 from yesterday). Again paper trading. the short selling restarted in beginning ot the month.
Gold at 1540 (+-3 ) Open Interest at 330,819 ( )
Silver at 37.10 and dropped sharply from 38.49 to 36.25 in matter of minutes. Open Interest at 58,872 suggesting the short covering after causing sharp plunge. This is what we expected yesterday and also all through the last week of May.

Stocks: Our Observations and Comments

  • Morgan Stanley view already mentioned earlier.
  • Airline stocks to get beating again. IOC may raise the oil prices soon and also ATF prices which is used by the Airlines.
  • ITC is a king in the court of paupers. We always said that this stock is an antidote to the market. Cash is king nowadays, and ITC is a king.
  • Reliance Capital showed profit in spite of lower revenue. Anil Ambani is bluffing. This is the only unit that is still in positive territory. Looks like Anil Ambani may get admitted into mental hospital due to depression.
  • Maruti reported lower numbers whereas TVS Motors reported better numbers. In short the trend is favoring two wheelers or three wheelers. All car operators are losing whereas the scooter manufacturers are gaining. TVS Motors is still our strong buy.
  • Petronet signed 25 year deal with Russian gas giant for supply of 25 million of cubic feet. The stock rosé and will continue to remain on high alert.

Stock Swap:(All in Rupees)

SELL @< or > SWAP to @< or > Reason in brief
None today

Kalidas One Liner

  • Money market is very tight. Even banks are tapping Retail deposits to fund themselves.
  • Everything is negative. Take refuge only in pharma and software stocks.
  • LIC is expanding in Singapore and also in Africa. Is not India enough book to manage?

Kalidas Chopai

PEP = Preferred Entry Point

Stock CMP Rs PEP CMP
None today
Ref. No. 11/KC/00 Date: 2011.05.16 Target (3M) Rs. SENSEX at

OVER

 


 

 

 


Stock Observatory India

Ref: ISO/11/40 of 2011-06-01 (India Time 9.00 am)

Overnight Events and Effects:

  1. Dow closed massive 128 points up at 12,569. However, after the markets closed, the US House defeated the measure to raise the debt limit by $2.4 trillions with votes against 318 (236 Republicans + 82 Democrats) vs. 97 in favor (all democrats). It may hurt the bond market tomorrow, so also the equity. Much depends on what appears on print tomorrow morning.
  2. USD Index started rebounding from day low. As expected by us, that from the beginning of the new month, that is June, the USD Index may begin to go higher and almost all currencies (except Japanese Yen) to go lower with commodities such as Gold and Silver
  3. There is nothing to propel the US market to go so high. Home prices in 20 cities fell to the lowest to 2008 level, and are still falling. The unemployment still remain high. With lot of demands from various quarters to raise the interest rates, Fed is still keeping same policy of easing.
  4. Asian markets are not able to decide which way to go after Congress refused to increase debt limit – is it a good news or bad news. Until the US market opens tomorrow, Asian markets may remain hamstrung.

Asian Markets today

NIKKEI – Japan at 9,695 (+2 ). Nothing significant news
Hang Sang -HK at 23,686 (+2 ) Not able to decide which way to go. Fund managers will take the view after 3 hours when we will have idea where the US markets will go next day
SENSEX – India May remain within tight range with upward bias on hopes for the better. The merger and acquisition activity is picking up in India expecially in Pharma and Software sectors. Both are also benefiting from lower rupee. Much focus will be on June 9 when EGOM decide on diesel, Kerosene and Gas prices. OPEC meeting on June 8 a day before is also seen as crucial.Our view is that the oil prices are heading higher due to possible production cut by OPEC in its June 8 meeting. Even if the oil prices are depressed in paper trading in derivatives on ICE and COMEX, the hard facts will emerge on June 8. India will be left with no alternative but to raise DKG prices (Diesel, Kerosene and LP Gas). 

Banks will be converting debt into equity or convertible preferred shares in several microfinance companies. It also poses further problems. If the prices correct, the losses on equity will be more and banks will be forced to provide for heavy losses under MTM rules (Mark to Market rules). Looks like Indian banks are heavily stuck in “microfinance fiasco” with Indian Overseas Bank leading the pack (judged by its lead rôle in restructuring microfinance portfolio). SBI also appear to have lost considerably.

In short banks are now stuck in debts or investments in Microfinance, Real Estate, Power finance, Infrastructure finance, and 2G/3G finance to telco companies. They are also facing short term liquidity squeeze. Bank of India suddenly increased the short term Fixed Deposit rates (15 days to 90 days) ranging from 1.75% to 2.5% – Wow! So much rush to take short term deposit at such high rates? What’s wrong in money market?

Currency:

US$ Index at 74.49 (-0.14). In normal course, USD would have rebounded. However, lessening of Greece problem, due to German rescue, Euro may not fall as expected in beginning of the month. With Congressional rejection of debt deal, the pressure will be on the dollar.
Rupee Will remain over Rs 45 for a few days. Weaker bias

Commodities

Oil at 102.96 (+0.26 ) If Euro remain strong, the oil prices being increasingly denominated in Middle East in Euro, dollar prices may rise.
Gold at 1,531 Open Interest at 329,811 (not yet updated). It fell on Greece saving news. However, the fundamentals still remain strong. All eyes are on how US markets react to rejection of Debt Increase deal by the Congress. If it is taken seriously, Gold may rise suddenly. Gold is reacting to twin news – one in Europe (Greek troubles) and now another at home (Debt increase limit)
Silver at 38.03 at (-0.30) Open Interest at 63,456 (again not updated). It shows signs of tiring at this level with $38.50 being strong hurdle to cross.

Stocks: Our Observations and Comments

  • It looks as if the Vedanta/Cairns deal may be finally called off. Both sides are obstinately clinging to their attitudes. ONGC is surely judtified to share the Royalty fees based on production sharing. However, it looks like that Vedanta group did not anticipate such serious obstacles. If the deal fails, Vedanta group may have to bear heavy cancellation charges. The CAIRNS may fall initially but recover later strictly on fundamentals. Its rise of production of crude oil to almost 240,000 bpd against 191,000 before will augment its profitability.
  • This may be a serious blow to foreign investors’ sentiments even if the India was right in seeking royalty payment from Vedanta in future. Now, the question is, when the deal is cancelled, will ONGC seek Royalty sharing from CAIRNS without Vedanta in picture?
  • Sterlite group of companies may also fall if the deal fails though. SESA GOA will be the stock to watch. It may rise due to cancellation of deal and release of its funds under 20% mandatory offer which may be cancelled.
  • Polaris Software Lab is a rising star in Software scenario after Satyam and TCS. The reason is that the company is specializing on Liquidity Adjustment Facility related software which matches the maturities. The biggest crisis yet to emerge is in this area, where most banks in USA are borrowing in short term (at less than 0.5%) and lending on fixed terms at 5% on 30 years basis. So called “Maturity Mismatch” is going to be mega crisis in derivatives in future. With this firm excelling in that software, its demand may rise all of sudden. It is trading at reasonably at around 10.9 P/E. With Rupee weakening, and its demand is expected to surge, this stock is worth on radar to buy even now (small position) or after June 9 when DKG price rise may be anounced, that may spook the market in general. In short, buy some on correction with about 1 to 2 years on view.
  • With Germany deciding to stop the use of nuclear reactors, the demand for alternative energy source such as solar, electric or even coal based power plants will rise, hell with the environments. India may also bid for nuclear power plants that may be on sale in Germany. It could find bargains and rely less on oil, coal and gas which are expensive items to produce electricity. Let us see whether Indian government is far sighted.
  • Maruti is back in news again with major expansion on anvil. It appears that Narendra Modi has become most popular and pragmatic leader in the states. Gujarat is all set to overtake Maharashtra in less than 5 years. It will be the most business friendly and proactive state in India. Its GDP share will increase dramatically.
  • SATYAM has been progressing well and distinctly on upward climb. Those who do not have any should buy this stock in any market related correction. This could be a good winner.
  • IOC declared lower profit but its revenue rosé. It reconfirms our opinion that higher DKG prices to be announced soon will change the course of IOC in future. It is the most valuable company on Indian Stock Exchange. Its current yield of 3% is rated very high because it can only increase to Rs 60 (from current Rs 9.50) in 5 years. That is, the future dividend yield is about 18%. This is still the single most high potential stock anywhere on this planet.
  • ONGC says it could have doubled the profit had it not been increased subsidy. In other words, buying ONGC even now or in any correction before June 8 could be extremely rewarding. Place it on Buy List.
  • The port related stocks such as Mundra Ports, Pipalvav Ports may perform better in future due to higher coal imports from Australia. Essar Port is venturing into the field carved by Ruchi Infra who has much smaller cash to contend with compared to Essar Group.

Stock Swap:(All in Rupees)

SELL @< or > SWAP to @< or > Reason in brief
Any stock <50 Ruchi Infra <21 High Potential
CAIRNS CMP Coal India CMP Safety and insurance against possible failure
Banks >200 ITC <200 Again for Safety.
Banks <100 IFCI <50 Higher earnings and quality
WIPRO CMP Polaris Software <183 Good prospects
INFOSYS CMP Satyam CMP 85 Higher prospects

Kalidas One Liner

  • None today

OVER


 Posted by at 9:27 am

 Leave a Reply

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

(required)

(required)