Jun 032011
 

2011-11 of 2011-06-03 (3rd June, 2011)            PDF Download

In financial markets, the people are never afraid of heights, but always worried of lows. Almost all hyper activities are taking place at the height of the market, which is determined by fast and hectic rising of the almost all equities.

In Goonda Raj, the bad news pervade from one gang to another easily. The gang leader knows in matter of days how the other gangster made so much of money in so little time. They adopt same methods to succeed, and they often do.

Greed and Fear are inseparable parts of any market. Money makes everyone corrupt. Almost everyone wants to become a millionaire or billionaire in matter of days. When the bureaucrats and Ministers see the businessmen making money so easily, they come in like “mafias” and start seeking their cuts, fees, haftas (installments) or whatever christen names you may want to assign to such activities.

When the market has risen from one peak to another in rapid succession, a time comes when it begins to either crash or climb down slowly, surely and steadily. There is no more upside, so the best thing that can happen at the peak is to come down due to its sheer gravity.

So it applies to corruption as well. Scam and Scandals begin to emerge when the market is jumping from one peak to another. The ignominious methods adopted by one minister becomes example to pursue by another minister. When one is caught, the entire range of gang operators come within the net.

Media like vultures pounce on such stories and sell their newspaper or magazines at maximum rate by publishing juicy stories. They call it “investigative journalism”.

No one wants to become Lord Rama, a higher rated moral God with “ek patni vrat” (believer in only one wife). However, everyone wants to become Lord Krishna who was darling of many girlfriends or dasis or sakhis (Companions). Similarly, in financial market everyone wants to become Warren Buffett, but they do not adopt his strategy. They worship Madoff, Stanford, Harshad Mehta, Ketan Parekh etc etc. to become instant billionaire like instant coffee.

Of late lot of money has flowed into South India. Initially, lot of Keralites went to Gulf and became richer. They sent lot of money home in their home state, so the prosperity flowed there. However, they were low level workers who earned by hard physical work. They could not engage themselves into corruption. South Indians in north of Kerala were good mathematicians for a long time. They got hold of Software or computer technology. This was instant hit. So Software exports generated billions of dollars or thousands of crores in South India. Hyderabad, Bangalore and Chennai became the focal point of interest.

Such flow of enormous money attracted crooks and scoundrels in the industry and scams and scandals started erupting like volcano in government circle. While License Raj has ended long time ago, the government officials and ministers started reformed “Spectrum Raj” to capitalize on telecom revolution.

In state of Maharashtra, a new Raj called “TDR” started which means Transfer of Development Rights in real estate business. Here the official or minister allows higher FSI (Floor Space Index) against the rule by permitting the developer to transfer his right in one development to another development obviously for a hidden fee. Like Mafias, the ministers and officials at the top started charging fees to the developers and builders. In short, paper derivatives like operations started in “Spectrum Raj” and “TDR Raj”. Everything was up for sale, including IPL.

The scams and Scandals follow same pattern of stock market. When they come out with increasing frequency, they denote the first sign of “cleansing up” . The scams and scandals have no where to go up now, but only down. It is a self healing process.

A few years or decades back, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Madhya pradesh were considered the most corrupt places in India. Our famous Lalu Prasad Yadav and his bibi Rabdi Devi became the household name. Their fodder fraud of Rs 700 crores look minuscule by today’s standard. In fact, Lalu compensated the country by turning Indian Railways into highly profitable public enterprise earning thousands of crores in revenue and made it a shining example. Phoolan Devi was forgotten and replaced by Maa Rabdi Devi his wife. They are no longer counted because after many scandals in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, a correction set in and now they are nearly out.

The slack was taken over by the South India where the prosperity flowed due to rise in software exports that brought in thousands of crores of money.

A honey bee goes where the flower blossoms. The honey bees in this case were corrupt politicians and their bureaucrat secretaries. Flower pots or money were in South India. Hyderabad, Bangalore, and Chennai were the places where the crooks and criminals arrived and mushroomed. Andhra Pradesh fired the first salvo when Rajus and Reddys took over the reins.

Satyam Computer’s Chairman B Ramalinga Raju became the first billion dollar fraudster of India. If Guinne Book of Records recognizes the corruption as outstanding achievment, Raju of Satyam will enter the roster of “Fame of Records”. Once tamed Andhra Pradeshi became famed “fraudsters”. 3R – that is – Rajus, Reddys and Rajas started as roosters. GTB or Global Trust Bank where thousands of crores of frauds took place also originated from Andhra Pradesh and RBI’s Reddy took the reins indirectly behind the curtains.

When the storm or tornado arrives, it changes the directions by turning a few degrees all of a sudden. The corruption started traveling from Andhra Pradesh to Karnataka (Bangalore) and to Chennai where Maharani Jay Lalita ruled over the state with thousands of saris and sandals in her closet.

Now that we know the natural process of creation of scams and scandals and their self destructions, let us see whether they help us in making good investment decisions. The dilemma facing the innocent nationalistic investor is whether he should sell and get out of the market or use the correction as outstanding buying opportunities?

Our experience opts for latter – that is – outstanding buying opportunities to buy the tainted yet high growth and potential stocks. The stocks are some of the simplest, finest and efficient financial instruments. They are extremely volatile because very few understand them. The stocks make money when they are bought at lowest and sold at the highest. However, in order to buy high end growth stocks, we need the help from fraudsters, scam artists and scandals at the top. They cause the stock prices to crash to the lowest to afford the intelligent and smart investors extra ordinary opportunities. Otherwise, how could one buy the stock at the cheapest?

Look at the Satyam which was taken over by Mahindra group to rebrand it as “Mahindra Satyam”. In spite of accounting fraud, the company was in one of the best health by all counts. Debt free large balance sheet, huge cash chest of Rs 1600 crores, high end growth, acceptability by high end customers such as Pharma industry leaders, well trained and qualified software engineers, erstwhile good reputation in its real field, sufficient margin and rising too, and competent management.

Almost all the bad things that were to happen to Satyam had happened and the company has written off all past losses of settlement of all law suits. It starts with the clean slate now, and the stock which we recommended strongly at near 60s has risen to Rs 89 today, a gain of 50% in just under 8 months. We have set the target of Rs 160 in less than 10 months or gain of about Rs 100 or 170% .

Political events, as different from financial event, provide the high quality opportunities. A stock makes money for the investors if the underlying company makes profits consistently which is a financial event or cause. The stock price therefore goes up. However, a non financial event such as scams or scandals involving promoters or their blood relations provide the outstanding opportunities to the real gem investors.

Such scams or scandals give them “god send opportunities”. They understand the risk and reward and go for it when the scandal dies down or getting reported on inside pages of financial newspapers instead of on front page.

A case to the point is SUN TV and SPICEJET which is controlled by Kalanidhi Maran. His brother Dayanidhi Maran, a former Telecom minister, is being investigated for his role in showing favors in 2G telecom licensing, a spectrum matter. The stock of SUN TV lost 27% in one day, and Spicejet by 17% which is holding most prospect amongst the listed airline. These companies were in different industries and have no vested interest in telco licenses. Their prices crashed due to poor sentiments generated by the main promoter’s family blood relationship.

A question arises – when to buy such scrips? The answer differs from exchange to exchange. In India, Bombay Stock Exchange sets the circuit limit which varies from 5% to 20%. Some stocks do not have any circuit rule attached. When the stock falls to lower circuit, it means that buyers refrained from buying. It is possible that the stock may go to lower circuit again on next day. It is also possible that the stock may have hangover from the scandal for a few months. However, we follow the following strategy not to miss the lower prices.

  • See the intensity of the bad news and see whether the stock trades near the lowest circuit all through the day on heavy volume.
  • Start buying from third day if the intensity of news is very high
  • If the company or its promoters were not involved in seemingly bad news, ignore the news and start buying on 1-2-3 basis as under:
    1. Buy small to test the water. Say you bought 1000 shares at CMP or Current Market Price
    2. If the publicity of news is very bad, buy on alternate days. That is, after buying 1000 on first day, leave second day and buy more on third day. Say you bought 2000 shares now.
    3. Leave again for one more day and on fifth day from the news, buy small portion, that is, you buy 1000 more if the price is lower than previous purchases.
    4. Then stop. Now allow the stock prices to recover. If you have enough stock, ignore the urge to add more.
    5. If the stock recovers strongly, start selling from last purchase. Say your last purchase was 1000 shares, so begin to sell it.
    6. Sell more (say 2000 shares you bought under Stage 2 above) if the stock continues to surge. Here again sell on alternate days or if the stock trades at upper circuit or up by 15%
    7. Allow one more day to pass, and then sell the last lot under Stage 1 (1000 shares)
    8. Do not worry by selling if the stock goes higher. You made your money. If the stock goes higher, you already have old stock which was averaged down. Sell only later as per your convictions.

Allied Digital Services Ltd was hammered down due to Income Tax Raids alleging tax evasion. Good part of interpretation was that the company was making good money which was the reason to save taxes. However, the news here is bad because the company’s management is directly involved. Not so in SUN TV and Spicejet.

Buying and Selling stocks is a imperfect science. It is at the most an Art. Use your common sense, and listen to only yourself. Do not be guided by media news analysis except to know the bare facts. Trust the company’s news release as provided to NSE or BSE under Corporate announcements. Do not act on impulse and sit in quiet corner to think over whatever happened and what could be the reasonable truth. This is the best way to deal with the stock price crash of any substantive stock.

 

Kalidas (Anil Selarka)

June 3, 2011

 

May 202011
 

2011-10 of 19th May, 2011 By Kalidas    Free PDF Download

Was it an event or Set up? is the question arises when we hear the news that IMF Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn or DSK, prospective candidate for French Presidency, was arrested minutes after he boarded a Air France plane on charges of “criminal sexual act, attempted rape, and an unlawful imprisonment in connection with a sexual assault on a 32-year-old chambermaid in the luxury suite of a Midtown Manhattan hotel”.

The alleged crime scene was $3,000 per night suit at Room 2806, Sofitel Hotel, 45 West 44th Street, near Times Square, New York.

The initial description of the incident as reported was as under:

In the New York case, Mr. Browne said that it was about 1 p.m. on Saturday when the maid, a 32-year-old woman, entered Mr. Strauss-Kahn’s suite — Room 2806 — believing it was unoccupied. Mr. Browne said that the suite, which cost $3,000 a night, had a foyer, a conference room, a living room and a bedroom, and that Mr. Strauss-Khan had checked in on Friday.

As she was in the foyer, “he came out of the bathroom, fully naked, and attempted to sexually assault her,” Mr. Browne said, adding, “He grabs her, according to her account, and pulls her into the bedroom and onto the bed.” He locked the door to the suite, Mr. Browne said.

“She fights him off, and he then drags her down the hallway to the bathroom, where he sexually assaults her a second time,” Mr. Browne added.

At some point during the assault, the woman broke free, Mr. Browne said, and “she fled, reported it to other hotel personnel, who called 911.” He added, “When the police arrived, he was not there.” Mr. Browne said Mr. Strauss-Kahn appeared to have left in a hurry. In the room, investigators found his cellphone, which he had left behind, and one law enforcement official said that the investigation uncovered forensic evidence that would contain DNA.

It was also reported in media that the alleged victim was forced to perform “oral sex” on the IMF Chief. In other words, she was not raped or had sexual intercourse.

A few questions arise that need the meticulous answers:

  1. DSK was 62 years old and the victim was just 32 years old. Was he physically capable to launch physical attack on young victim?
  2. It is said that DSK came out “fully naked” from the bathroom into the foyer where the chambermaid was present or in waiting. How a person inside the bathroom knew that there was a “chambermaid” in the foyer?
  3. And even if he did, why did he come out “fully naked”. No sane person comes out fully naked into his foyer knowing perfectly well that someone else was present in his room.
  4. or was he waiting for some woman with whom he prearranged at certain fees for her services. Was it coincidence that he mistook the chambermaid as the preappointed visitor? Even if it was presumed to be preappointed visitor for a fee, what was the reason for attacking the expected person when it was all arranged?
  5. As per the internal hotel rules and etiquette in high end hotels, the cleaning staff usually go in a team (of usually two persons). In that case, how come the alleged victim went there alone?
  6. It was stated that the alleged victim knew of the identity of the IMF Chief only later. Normally, when a hotel staff visits such high end suit costing as high as $3000 per night know well in advance the full name of the visitor, his status and reputation to communicate effectively in first person name, rather than treating him as stranger or a calling him impersonally as “Sir” or “Madam”.
  7. A person of IMF Chief caliber, was known to be a very wealthy man. In fact he posted a “bail amount of US$ 1 million immediately” and also posted bond for a staggering amount of US$ 5 million. If he was so rich, he could have hired a woman on rent for $100 per hour or even $ 500 per hour for all services. What could have motivated him to attempt for “free sex” with hotel chambermaid staff?
  8. Was IMF Chief scheduled to leave same afternoon by Air France or he tried to run away after the alleged crime? If he was scheduled to leave in the afternoon, would any person in his sane mind have entered into sexual act minutes before his alleged scheduled departure?
  9. It comes to final question – Was it an event or carefully planned “Set up” ? If it was a “set up”, who were the planners behind the curtain and their ulterior motive? Was it related to some past economic actions of the IMF Chief that displeased some quarters, and wanted him to “go” or “eliminated”? After all, he was IMF Chief and his actions determined the fate of certain countries and currencies.

Crime Investigation – Search for Motive:

In any crime there is one element investigated by all Crime Investigators – Motive.

  • What was the motive in present case?
  • Did the IMF Chief act on premeditated move or acted on impulse?
  • Was he under the influence of drug such as Viagra or Cialis or other form of violent sex stimulants?
  • If so, did he take voluntarily or injected into his drink or otherwise?

Search for Beneficiaries:

If it was a simple event of rape, further investigations end here. But if it was a set up, then the investigations should proceed further. They look for beneficiaries.

In present case, who were the beneficiaries if DSK, a French national and from Euro Zone, was removed from the scene? The immediate candidate to succeed would be “John Lipsky” and American who would be acting Managing Director until the official replacement of DSK was found. He would be more responsive to US Administration and their needs.

In other words, a key member and policymaker from Euro Zone was forcibly removed , whether by his own criminal action or forced actions of beneficiaries, and replaced “interim” by an American.

So, it was European replaced by American, and if we represent them by currency, we can say that it was “Euro replaced by Dollar”.

Timothy Geithner, Treasury Secretary, played his card very carefully, distancing himself from any controversy and even doubt that could point fingers at him or his administration, immediately echoed his joy saying that IMF Chief DSK is unable to conduct his duties effectively, and should be replaced by some one, and that some one he knew would be no one else but an American.

If it was a set up, now we know the motive and the beneficiaries. We have to know what could be the benefit, who would be the losers and who would be the gainers?

Let us examine the last few months events where the IMF Chief has taken some actions found unacceptable by certain quarters. What are the pressing circumstances right now?

Greece, Ireland & Portugal immediately to be followed by Spain and Italy. Collectively they are known as PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain). IMF Chief DSK wanted to help Greece and Portugal so that his Eurozone does not break up. Whereas the opposite forces wanted to destroy Greece and Portugal and break up the Euro zone which news is in the air in the form of hints, discussions, debates etc for over 4 months.

Now, who benefits if Greece and Portugal fails? or put it this way, if Greece and Portugal leave Euro zone or abandon its currency “Euro” , which other country or currency benefits? Obviously it is United States and its US$.

Many years ago, before the birth of Euro, all global transaction used to be routed through the medium of US dollar. So, if the German wants to export to France, he converts his DM into US$ and the French converts its Franc into US$ to settle finally the trade. When these nations developed their own common currency, there was no need to use US$ as “intermediary currency”. They can settle the trade straight into Euro, the new common currency between German and France in this case.

Thus, with the birth of Euro, the US$ running into trillions of dollars that formed part of inter-european trades, were turned “redundant” or “surplus”. There were no takers. Where to find home for billions or even trillions of dollars found in the street?

If Greece and Portugal were hurt and removed from the scene of Euro zone, an initial attack to dissolve or destroy Euro would begin. This is similar to Asian Crisis when the initial attack was launched on Thailand, a corrupt country. Greece and Portugal have same thing in common – Corruption. The people there can be bought or sold as easily as mineral water.

IMF pronouncement on US economy – Unacceptable to Timothy Geithner

Immediately before the above event, IMF made following bold predictions not acceptable to United States.

  • America’s economic dominance on the world stage could end in five years, according to a new (IMF) report. (Fox News April 25,2011)
  • The International Monetary Fund’s latest forecast predicts that China’s economy will outflank the United States’ in 2016. (Foxnews April 25, 2011)
  • The European Central Bank’s chief economist said a Greek debt restructuring would be a “recipe for catastrophe” as he blamed “vested interests” in Britain and the United States for fueling market pressure on the country.

 

American Ego

It hurts American ego. We are Number 1 and can not relegate this position to anyone else. Further, Greek which is holding on for over 4 months in spite of vicious attack on its bonds that forced its yield to rise to 16% to 24%, in derivative attack in US markets, is still not falling. It was mainly due to DSK who was a staunch supporter.

Greek, Ireland and Portugal Debt

It may be noted that Greece could not have contracted such huge debt. It was Goldman Sach who appear to have sold some structured and complex derivatives, credit default swaps and interest rates swap that balooned its debt without its knowing. All these derivatives were sold by American and later by British banks that wrecked the economies of Greece, Portugal, Ireland and now they are talking about Spain.

One common thing among these nations is that they are all high on “Gold Assets” which form substantial part of their Forex reserve. US which appear to have lost over 6000 tons of gold which is now shown as “Under Lien” in Fed’s balance sheet, mainly appear to belong to some european nations, most possibly these nations. If their nose is squeezed, they will open their mouth, that is, if they are subjected to extreme duress, they will be obliged to sell their huge gold reserve which could be bought by United States who appear to have leased out to other investment banks for short selling purpose over the years.

If Greece fails and gets out of Euro zone or European Union, dollar will win and euro will be defeated. The contagion will set in when one after the another country in Euro Zone will be thrown into limbo by the derivative specialists on the Wall Street in active collusion with the paramountly interested party – US administration.

 

A contagion on much larger size and dimension is likely to take place in Europe to finish its alternate role of global currency in true memory of Asian crisis which was also engineered in United States.

Rôle of IMF Chief – Dominique Strauss-Kahn

DSK who was stubborn resistance to US vested interests to destroy Euro, appears to have become victim of his own strength. All circumstantial evidence appear to suggest that he was “marked for elimination” and there is a saying that “everything is fair in love and war”. We are in middle of unpublicized currency war between two titans – Bankrupt dollar and not so bankrupt Euro. Otherwise it is inconceivable how “A” rated country like Portugal could come to the verge of default.

European Union is investigating the role of over 30 Investment Banks mostly from United States for their role in precipitating crisis in 2008 in Europe. Before they are caught, apprehended and penalized, the vested interests based in United States and United Kingdom want to consign the European Union to flames. When it no longer exists, where is the question of their taking any action against the wrongdoers? There is a saying in Hindi “ Naa rahegi baas, na rahegi bansari” , that is, if there is no baas (or bamboo shoot), there will be no bansari (the flute made from bamboo shoot which plays melodious tunes)

It is all the more surprising that a country like United Kingdom which was nearly destroyed by same western Investment Banks from United States, is still supporting their own destroyers. Read any British newspaper and you will get the impression that they were printed in United States, not in UK. Democracy has severe limitations. You can not destroy the weeds.

Will IMF Chief plead guilty?

Do not be surprised if he pleads guilty finally. Pleading guilty is not necessarily the admission of guilt. It is the way the American justice system works. What they call “plea bargaining” under which the defendant is given choice to pursue the trial and face the very long jail sentence or admit the guilt under plea bargaining to get shorter reprieve or jail term for helping court save the time.

Who cares whether the justice is done or not. Justice should be delivered and case should be treated as “CLOSED”. Bang!

However, if he had really committed crime, then he has no excuse. He should be punished under the law. We can not let the people with loose pants or trousers to hang around and do whatever they like.

Kalidas (Anil Selarka)

May 20, 2011