Sep 302008
 

God Saved Americans’ $700 Billions with Dow’s fall of 778 Points

There is a saying that there could be a delay in God’s regime, never Injustice. Wise man also said that never regret what happened, – it did only for better. My father also taught me when you need to use the common sense, never waste your intelligence. (Use it where it is required)

 

American citizens excelled and finally came on to their own. They said – we can afford to lose 778 points of Dow or 10% of S&P, because they will always retrace, but we can not afford to waste $700 Billions for crazy guy Paulson, that will take generations to get back, if at all. The rejection of Paulson Plan was the victory of American democracy. There could not have been better display, when the Americans saved almost irrecoverable $700 Billions and lost just retraceable 778 points of Dow.

 

Here is the brief virtual conversation between the American Citizens and Paulson, with FED Chief Bernanke and President Bush intervening at times.

President Bush

Fellow Americans, you made terrible mistakes…

American Citizen

Really, who is saying that? You? You never made right decision in last 8 years of Presidency. Yes, we made terrible mistakes, but that was 8 years ago, when we sent you to the White House. What we did today was the right thing to do – to show you the door and never see you again. We would prefer to see the face of “Ugly Betty” to you – at least she will make us laugh. You always made us shed the tears of sorrow, blood and sweat. Please don’t bother me.

Paulson

There will be job losses, unemployment, no credit for cars, homes, banks will not offer you loans…when you asked your Representative to vote against. Look at Dow – down 778 points, S&P down 9% NASDAQ down 10% – you see, we have worst economic situation since 1930 depression era.

American Citizen

Really? Who will lose jobs – the people working at Wall Street? We can afford to lose jobs for a while, because it is limited to my own generation. But giving you a blank checkbook of $700 billions to buy the rotten eggs will make my grand, grand grand, grand grand grand children to pay through the noses.

 

And who will benefit? You and your Goldman Sach? You mentioned that the portfolio of $700 billions will be managed by your Goldman Sach employee. Your GS will charge the exchequer 1% to 2% for next 5, 10 or 30 years to hold these rotten assets till maturity. So your GS will make about $ 7 billions to $ 14 billions per year for next 30 years, and you will go on making money in the GS stocks.

 

And are you saying that this is the worst time since 1930 depression? Are you kidding? The Dow is down to 10,370 today whereas it was just around  3000 in 1987. It has not gone down to even 1987 level, and are you saying that this is the worst economic time since 1930? Better get your figures straight.

 

And dear, these derivatives were all invented in the factory of Goldman Sach and likes, so called “financial engineering”, in off shore centers. Now that they are busting, you bring them on the American soil and ask us to pay for your sins?

Fed’s Bernanke

Brother, you do not know the real problem. All these banks are busting, there is a credit squeeze, the interbank market is dead, GDP will go down, job losses will increase, the economy will contract, there will be problems everywhere.. You should have authorized the passage of bill for $700 billions of which only $250 billions were to be disbursed now, and $100 billions before December under the supervision…You see…

American Citizen

Stop right there. Let me ask you one question. How much money did you pump today into the United States and abroad to ease so called “Liquidity crunch”?

Fed’s Bernanke

Well, about $673 billions were pumped into the system today

American Citizen

Hey wise guy. You pumped $673 billions into the system without any form of authorization from Congress or otherwise, and you wanted my Authorization for just $ 250 billions? Are you out of your mind? How come we get “dumb persons “like you and Greenspan to head the FED empire?”

President Bush

You see, this is fairly complicated. Even I don’t understand. These guys are professionals and experts. You got to believe them…

American Citizen

You were elected as President of United States and you could not understand this basic economics? Why did we give you this beautiful and most powerful nation for management when you did not have even common sense?

 

And you are telling me that these guys are professionals and experts? These are the guys who messed up the whole system, who created CDO, CDS, and CLN etc that finally busted. We are harvesting their sins now and you are saying that we should believe this bald headed Paulson and Bearded Bernanke who have no brains of even 5th class student?

President Bush

Well, I do not know CDO but know WTO and WOT only…

American Citizen

I can understand WTO, but never heard of WOT – have you mis-spelt it?

President Bush

No, No, No. There is no spelling error. WOT = War On Terror. You know these terrorists who scare the hell out of me…

American Citizen

Oh, War on Terror. What are you doing now? Are you not terrorizing me by telling me GDP will go down, jobs will be lost, no money for the cars, homes, health care, Medicare, social security, and no money at the banks too?

President Bush

Well, these are my final 35 days – you may better ask these complicated questions to next President who may be better placed to answer them.

American Citizen

Well, Mr., President, Mr. Bernanke, Mr. Paulson, I got to go…otherwise I will lose job and only you will have to pay me the Unemployment Allowance. I am a good citizen unlike all of you, and do not want to be a burden on the state.

President Bush

Don’t be angry. Did not I send you rebate checks worth $106 billions some time ago?

American Citizen

Yes, I received it, and now you want $700 billions from me? Do you think that your fellow American citizens are stupid?  Are you a President or a Con Man? Get the hell out of here – all of you…Now.

Why did the Dow fall so steeply?

These Wall Street guys spread all rumors, including PIMCO chief – Bill Gross. I was watching the market and Congressional proceedings all night long. The market fell in last 5 minutes when the sellers deluge. They marked down the prices steeply when they saw no bids, It was more like a scene of Bombay Stock Exchange in January, when the brokers marked down the prices steeply for all blue chips, seeing no bids.

 

It should be noted that if there were sellers all around, there were buyers too for whole day except for last 5 minutes. Even on closing bell, Maria of CNBC announced the fall of about 600+ points whereas the last minute update sent the Dow reeling by another 180 points. They were not indicative of meltdown. Who did that? Goldman at the instance of Paulson, to force the Congress to pass the bill a day after?

 

What will happen on Tuesday?

People will have time to think. Wall Street has been manipulating the whole market like a bunch of thugs. They brought down Dow in last few minutes to force the Congress to pass the bill on Thursday, October 2, 2008. They wanted $ 700 billions before September to manipulate the market prices of derivatives, by buying them at very high prices. They will even now lift the short selling ban on 799 financial shares, so that the market could go down further, and these “three Musketeers” could say – We told you so…

 

Asian markets will fall again in the opening trades, but then, might recover. Whatever happens in Asia or Europe, there is a strong possibility that Dow after sliding further by 200 points (10,170), may rebound strongly. The rejection of Paulson Plan is now discounted in the market price. Nothing worse is going to happen. If some bank goes under, let it go. How many banks will they go on resurrecting? These CDO/CDS have spread like Aids virus.”

 

The sudden outbreak of bankruptcy virus is due to the “off shore” liabilities coming “on shore”. They were never seen on the balance sheets of the banks in the past. When they lost money overseas, they jettisoned them to “on shore” parents, like an ocean that always throws the trash on to the shore.

 

The investors have short memory. How many times the investors remembered 1930, 1987 and 2001 in last 5 years? You can count it on finger tips.

 

Frozen Liquidity?  How to counter it?

Let the market rates rise. There are always lenders who want to lend the money if they get higher return for higher risk. Did not Warren Buffet give $ 5 Billions to Goldman Sach by extracting 10% interest on preferred shares? With warrants attached?

 

It was stupid move on the part of Bernanke to pump over $673 billions in the market without any authorization while he was seeking Congress approval for just $250 billions. What the hell is he doing? He is just printing billions of dollars every day with almost no coma, semi colon and full stop? Has he gone mad?  Why does not he recognize that the lenders are just on side line? They do not want to lend in high risk environment by receiving just 2%. If they want higher interest rate for short term, let them have it. Nothing stops. Everything has a price. Let the market determine the interest rates for the time being. Pumping hundreds of billions of dollars will only make the people shun even treasury and go for Gold – which can not be printed.

 

God has finally saved the America. The Americans should be proud of themselves for putting their foot firmly down on the gang of President Bush, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson.

 

Kalidas, Hong Kong

September 30, 2008

Sep 292008
 

Buy Rotten Eggs for $700 Billion in 36 days


The first mistake the Americans made 8 years ago was when they forgot to get the incoming President’s head examined. There is always an intense debate for the suitability of any candidate for the coveted post of the President. More emphasis is always given how the next Commander-In-Chief would act in case of exigencies. No one asked them of their basic knowledge of economics except how much taxes would he reduce.

 

Visit any Forex traders or option trader’s website – they give you $ 1 million to play a demo game. Never before any presidential candidate was asked to play such demo game in public debate. Never before any presidential candidate was asked what will you buy if you were given $700 billion of Taxpayer’s money?

 

However, on the historic Sunday, 28th September 2008 to be precise, a bipartisan agreement was arrived at to authorize the President Bush to succumb to the wishes of the Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to spend $700 Billions of tax payers’ money to buy rotten eggs lying in the vaults of Banks and Brokers in his last 36 days!

 

When a person is dying, his last wishes are asked for by the relatives circling on him just to listen how much he would get if that fellow dies. When a criminal is condemned to death, his last wishes are asked for before his head is shaven off in preparation for his journey to the death. Hank Paulson did not have to have his head shaven off. His wish was $700 Billions – and America’s most retarded President in the history granted the wish to spend $700 Billion in 36 days! He was joined by the chorus of congressmen/women to tell their Commander in Chief – Yes Sir. The President said – I did not hear you! The congressmen raised their pitch – Yes Sir, Yes Sir, Yes Sir.

 

Ask any businessmen or any person of ordinary prudence – would he give his departing employee even $700,000 of authority when he has already resigned and counting his last 30 notice days? Of course No, then how come the President of United States hands over blank checkbook to his Treasury Secretary with unchecked power of $700 billion when he is counting his last 36 days?. If something goes wrong later – Mr. Paulson would say” I have right to remain silent.” Look at the bill you have passed in the Congress. – No questions to be asked. Period.

 

Only a few months ago, the President Bush with great fanfare distributed Tax Rebate checks to American citizens amounting to $106 billions only to withdraw $ 700 billions from their and their future generations’ pocket on today (28 Sept 08) like a conman. During his presidency, over 4000 soldiers lost lives in Iraq, 1000 more in Afghanistan, over a million innocent people died in Iraq, Twin towers of World Trade Centers were destroyed, billions of dollars of budget surplus was converted into whopping deficits, US Dollar dropped by 40%, hurricanes destroyed several cities, wildfires raged in and tons of mud sided in California,  millions lost jobs and homes, oil prices rose from low 30s to high 145, and industries collapsed one by one – from Auto, airlines, healthcare, Medicare, insurance, brokers, investment banks, and banks for only one reason. He was thoroughly incompetent.

 

Now, let us consign all events until today’s night into history, and focus what will or could happen from now on to the financial markets around the world. Here are the posers and possibilities.

 

 

 

 

Q:

Is it a done deal? Will it become a law?

A:

Preliminary agreement is struck. While leaders have agreed, it is not known whether the rank and file senators will vote for the bill. They have been getting angry response from their constituencies to vote against, There have been street protests in California, Anger is building up which may become violent. US is heading towards unrest and then civil war in a few months.

Q:

What will happen to the market?

A:

Paulson wanted to get the bill signed by the President before the world market opens tomorrow. He expects the market to give solid response. However, the market is always an unpredictable beast. World markets do not act on themselves. They wait until the US market opens. Further, the market movement depends on the major brokers. As you are aware, most of the leading Investment banks like Bears Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch are either in the coffin or ICU. The credit crunch is so much that most of the brokers do not have money to pump into the market and take their proprietary position.

 

However, Goldman Sach and Morgan Stanley, now being banks, will be given billions of dollars to buy into overseas markets, especially near day close, if the markets do not move up strongly in the morning trades.

Q:

Will the bank start lending and reduce the liquidity freeze?

A:

Doubtful. Most banks from Citibank to UBS have raised capital from the market in the form of High coupon (9% to 11%) preference shares in billions of dollars. They will be forced to retire high cost debt, leaving little in their coffer.

 

Further, more and more debts are being generated in the market due to sub prime default that makes more and more derivatives doubtful. The banks will be forced to pay to the counterparty in respect of future obligations. It can not plead that it does not have money. The creditors may sue the banks to either pay or file bankruptcy. There is no chapter 11 for banks, only Chapter 7 and 13 that compulsorily winds up the company.

 

The mistrust has been built into the market so much that the counterparty risk has risen to the highest level. Under these circumstances, the interbank transactions will remain low. The collapsing banks in USA, UK, and rumors of failures in centers like Hong Kong, will continue to make the market difficult for lending.

 

Corporate lending may take a while. The commercial paper market has become like a junk bond market with interest rates running in high single digit to low double digits even for blue chip customers. The real interest rates are perking up.

Q:

What happens to the Equity markets?

A:

They will open high but then retrace after 2 hours, again peaking up near the close due to US funds buying with billions of dollars in blank checks.

 

The real rally may come only after the reaction of the US market. Tuesday may be stronger than Monday, provided no negative news emerges on deal front.

Q:

How  the markets may react?

A:

  • Dollar block country may do best – Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea may choke 3% to 5% gain initially, go down by 3% in correction, to peak up gain near close by another 3% to close at 8% maximum.
  • Japan may gain by 3% to 5%.
  • Sensex may gain 600 points initially, depending on how the Asian markets have reacted, to lose 300 pts, to make up morning losses as soon as London market opens strongly. If London is lower, due to another bank failure, the Sensex may lose steam. US brokers may not be that active in India market. They need more money at home than park them overseas.
  • Dow Jones may chalk up over 400 pts gain because of massive short covering of Index weighted financial shares. If the bill is passed into law on following day in the congress, then all financials will rally.
    • It is possible that the Banks and Brokers may start reporting profits due to write back of excess provisions caused by higher market value manipulations.
    • If in the meanwhile Mark to Market rule is abolished, the bonds may be re valued to par value on HTM or Hold Till Maturity principle. (In this case, ICICI Bank may also benefit in India)
    • Some large hedge funds may fold up due to changing of rule of short selling of shares in the middle of a game. The losses may run into billions of dollars. If they save the banks, the hedge funds get busted. Will Paulson plan save them too?
    • There could be thousand of law suits in UK and USA against authorities from hedge funds, pension funds for losing money due to sudden changing of short selling rules in middle of the game.
  • Bond market may behave differently, Initial rally may fizzle out. The collapse of banking system has just started. British banks, once considered safe may come into more problems. The bank failures are spreading to every where. From USA to across Atlantic – UK, Germany, Belgium (Benelux countries), Hong Kong and more will follow in Asia and Japan. Many have not shown yet where do they stand. Almost all Asian and Japanese banks are saddled with the American CDO, CDS, and Lehman Bonds that run into billions. When Lehman owed over $600 billions, the question arises – to whom? Those who are trying to buy Lehman because by buying them out, the cross entries will be eliminated.
  • The British banks like HSBC may have more losses. If you look at their balance sheets in Yahoo, there are hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars of transfer between various assets –
    • long term assets were reduced by 800 billions and short term liabilities rose by $1.2 trillions, ($1200 Billions)
    • Long term Investments rose by $ 1 trillions.($1000 Billions)
    • Cash resources depleted by $300 billions.
    • Its capital is just $88 billions against total liabilities of $2.2 trillions or just 3%.
    • In other words, all off balance sheet assets and liabilities of off shore centers have been brought into the main balance sheets. How much of such trillions of dollars is good, we do not know.  See the following link…  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=hbc&annual
    • In short the balance sheet severely deteriorated. This applies to almost all banks who have tied up with USA and who bought US banks or brokers 3 to 5 years ago amid lots of fanfare.
  • The dollar index may gain initially.
  • Commodity price may see fall. Metal stocks may fall worldwide again.
  • Gold too may fall initially by 6% to 8% in 2 or 3 sessions. However, the gold is having lot of real strength. After initial euphoria, it may rise again.
  • Oil Prices may fall due to shorting of futures against buying of $ index. The oil prices are bearing the stamp of Rupert Rubin, ex-Goldman Sach Vice President and former Treasury Secretary and now top executive of Citigroup. With blank checkbook in the hands of Paulson, some billions may be given to old colleague to short the oil and strengthen the dollars
    • It may be noted that recent spike in oil price by $25 in single day was due to short covering of oil contracts ahead of settlement on Nynex. Under the current rules, the settlement is subject to physical delivery. So the short sellers have to either buy back the contracts or deliver millions of barrels of oil physically that they do not have.
    • This scenario may be repeated in November. While buying back the September contracts at huge premium, they shorted the November contracts again in roll over exercise. If the oil prices remain strong, expect another major spike in oil prices in November. Oil is now most manipulated market with the use of derivatives.
    • There are all signs that another Enron is in the making, this time, 20 times larger. Which company is used now, is not known.
  • Interest Rates will go much higher and you should not be surprised, if they get into high double digits in less than 6 months. The lower credit rating of US governments by Fitch and others in oveseas countries (Moodys and S&P will not change their loyalty) may again push up the rates.  If the rates does go to even 12%, the US government will have to service their debt of over $13 trillions @ $ 1.5 trillion per year of repeat expenses.

Q:

Does it mean that USA is on recovery path?

A:

Absolutely not. The manipulative effect does not last longer, especially when the trillion dollar scale is considered. The States and Local government who need over $200 billions to manage their state, may raise their ugly head and demand payment when 3 times more money is given to bankrupt banks. USA is receding into civic unrest and Civil war slowly and surely.

Q:

Is there severe discontent among Americans at the current Bail Out plans

A:

Americans are damn angry. They are losing jobs, homes, healthcare, Medicare every thing… They have now converging on the streets with big banners. If the bill is passed into law, they will flare up, and the anger will spread across the nation like a Californian wild fire. Since guns are freely licensed in USA, there is likely to be mayhem and the ordinary civic unrest will escalate into full scale Civil War. They have to ban gun immediately before situation worsens.

 

This may happen swiftly, even before election. We should be very happy that it does not happen; In fact it should not happen or should not be allowed to happen. For the first time, US Administration will have to use bullets on their own soil to kill the American themselves instead of killing millions of peoples abroad in self engineered war of massive scale.

Q:

What should an Investor do now?

A:

This is pet line of CNBC in its advertisement for which they never reply. The present scenario is very unstable, and changes from moment to moment. It is more akin to war. Deal with it as it comes. No planning is going to work, except holding some portion in gold.

Q:

Is there any solution to the present mess?

A:

Of course, yes. The trouble right now is that no one knows what has suddenly happened and why so swiftly. Watch for my book “Sub Prime Resolved”: that contains complete solution and also wait for my next article here – How we got here? Legalizing Parallel Economy”

Q:

Are we to worry about every thing?

A:

No. The problem will take care of itself. For every problem, there are 10 solutions, One has to find it. I have found them, and sent out a letter to appropriate authorities who received them by FEDEX on 25th August, 2008, but they did not reply. Who is by the way Kalidas? Never heard of him.

Kalidas, Hong Kong
29/9/2008